Connect with us

International Law

The Unfinished agenda of 2016’ Global Politics and expectations of 2017

Published

on

The unstoppable flow of new issues in international relations (IR) always pushes aside present and past crises. The entrance of these modern day challenges occupy more of the international community’s resources and time, making other vital issues less important. Is this an organic design, and the natural consequences?

It is a contested argument. However, we all forget that leaving problems to escalate from one year to the next year not only leaves the wound open, but makes it harder to close, particularly in regard to influencing the situation. Though the international players observe these developments as grave concerns, their experiences can only offer a familiar voice asking the stakeholders to remain calm. The Israeli-Palestine conflict, civil wars throughout Africa, the Kashmir issue, Tamil’s status in the United Sri Lanka, belligerent North Korea, Iran’s nuclear potential, governmental issues across Latin America, the worldwide war on terror, the shift of the old world order in the shadow of new rising powers, the impact of the Arab Spring, new tensions between the US and Russia, the Syrian refugee crisis, pandemic diseases, climate change, stalled WTO negotiations and many more keep the United Nations (UN) permanently engaged. Which issues did the international community consider more important than others and which remained untouched during the year 2016 will be discussed here.

This year the Israel-Palestine issue did not received more space in the agenda of the UN but was always present at the table. The recent abstention of the United States in the UNSC censuring the illegal Israeli settlements show that the long-standing approach of America in favor of Israel now is tilting. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was blindsided by this new shift, and spectators continue to contemplate why the US has broken its uncontested support for Israel and what the expected results might be.

No one dare talk of the Kashmir issue boldly, as it fuels the bitter relations between India and Pakistan. The reason for the estranged relations between India and Pakistan begins six decades ago at the partition of the Hindu-Muslim divide. Pakistan invaded Kashmir and was the aggressor in the situation. With no question surrounding India’s status as one of the new rising powers in the international system, seeking major influence within inter-governmental and organisational bodies is tensely anticipated. It seem Pakistan has not realised the reality of this issue, it can cry foul but it will not receive any support from any major Western players. This issue was not considered seriously by the international community for two reasons. First, India maintains that Kashmir is the internal matter of India and will only be resolved bilaterally with Pakistan. It claims that there would be no space for a third party. Second, India is the worlds largest democracy with a fast growing economy, as well as the largest importer of military procurements. India’s growth can be attributed to its friendly relations with major powers in the international system.

The agreement between Colombia and FARC would have ended one of the world’s longest, continuous conflicts in Latin American and set a precedent for resolving any deadly conflicts across the continent. However, Africa remains a continent plagued by suffering, and does not intend to copy the model and attempt to end any of their internal conflicts. Poverty, malnutrition, water insecurity and chronic diseases are threatening Africa’s communities. In addition, other issues like Boko Haram’s insurgency in northeastern Nigeria, ethnic violence in the divided Sudan, and Congo, Somalia, Mali and Algeria registered even more deaths from political violence in the year 2016. Recent reports say that Robert Mugabe, the 92 year old President of the failed state Zimbabwe will be in the race again to retain his presidential power. The UN and the US are concerned about the burgeoning issues across Africa but are unable to do carry out any action because of their focus on eradicating ISIS in the Middle East.

In Sri Lanka, the conflict between the majority of Singhalese and the minority Tamils and taking forward the new constitution of united Sri Lanka will be a burning domestic matter. The post-LTTE regime and the continuous presence of Sri Lanka’s military throughout war-torn regions makes the deprived minority people more vulnerable and poses a serious threat for their peaceful living. Further, the government’s concern to monitor and if needed thwart the regrouping of the LTTE would be understandable but the internal security matters should not endanger to its citizens. The crucial factor here would be an investigation by the UN body regarding the Human Rights violations, torture and unlawful killings during the final seven years of the war, and to apply pressure to the Sri Lankan government for further actions and a follow up. However, the resistance of Colombo in addition to the rivalry between India and China granted free bail to Sri Lanka in Indian Ocean security challenges.

At the Paris accord on Climate Change at the end of 2015 and the follow up in 2016 by the UN, the US sought a Chinese pledge. This was in order to give a chance to the citizens of the world and for the biggest polluters to guarantee change in the face of the real threat of global warming as well as the responsibility to save it. So far, “120 Parties have ratified of 197 Parties to the Convention” (unfcc.int) thus the Paris Agreement was fully supported and entered into force in 2016, received as a very positive message to all environmentalists, climate change scientists and anyone affected/worried about the consequences of pollution.

The deadlock of the WTO Doha Round talks means there will not be negotiations in 2016 due to the inability of the international community. This is not good news to the developing world, as this is the only rules based organisation which gives support to small states. The deadlock must be reversed to give an opportunity to every human being who have the right to live in this world equally. The failure of the WTO in boosting regional trade pacts would be a loss for developing nations. In 2016 the WTO was able to receive the required attention but will get the right consideration in 2017 if the Director General of the WTO, along with the new US administration, the EU, China, India, Russia, Brazil, South Africa and other major players collectively stand to provide a chance for future negotiations.

The second Iraq war, the repercussions of the ‘Arab Spring’ followed by civil war across North Africa and the Middle East has caused serious damage and disasters to humanity. The struggle to wipe out ISIS in Iraq and Syria fuelled the biggest refugee crisis the world has witnessed since World War II. The continuous clash between the US and Russia over Syria ceasefires and the battle for Mosul and Aleppo has devastated the country without any immediate redemption. Though the international community was concerned, the ego’s and power struggle between the US and Russia was the main reason behind the delay to bring all parties for ceasefire discussions.

The threat of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of deadly terrorist groups and proliferation of nuclear material within failing states is a serious issue which hurts everyone in the world. Last year alone, various tests were exercised by North Korea, and though its weapons capacity is contested the main point is that the tests were successful. North Korea is demonstrating its nuclear might with the protective shadow of China. No one is willing to address and/or challenge China’s influence, powers and relationships in the region. Why is this?

The pact with Iran surrounding nuclear material was a necessity as there was no alternatives that pursued the right direction. Which way this option proceeds lies in the hands of the new US president. Hopefully, Iran and its people will enjoy the outcome of the pact and it can be viewed as a positive message. With more investments predicted for Iran, the international community should keep a watchful eye on Iran incase these are viewed as funding opportunities to strengthen their nuclear option in the future. To counteract this, Iran should be guaranteed a security shield to protect them from another nuclear state or threat in their region.

US-Cuba relations

After imposing sanctions on Russia as punishment for the Crimea issue, tensions between the US and Russia have been renewed and registered at a new level. The US administration should not forget that pushing Russia towards the East is a big challenge in that it has the possibility of strengthening the relationship with China. Hacking the US election system, President Barak Obama’s reactions to expelling 34 Russian diplomats from the US, as well as Trump’s response are sending dangerous messages. Instead of retaliating, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s silence troubled every one. Which way the US will move and why remains to seen. The important aspect of this and the biggest worry would be the future and risks of cyber-security and the impact it can have on the international stage.

Silent issues are appearing quickly, particularly after the announcement of Trumps election win. His phone call with the Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-disturbed and shocked China. Trump’s olive branch towards Putin and open talks with Ing-wen will be a gateway to isolating China but also poses serious challenges to the new UN Secretary-General.

Ban Ki-Moon the Secretary-General of the UN is now completing his 10-year tenure. Now, the new Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has “pledged to make 2017 a year for peace.” He has experience in the UN as a High Commissioner for Refugees and as prime minister of Portugal. What the international media and diplomats have commented about the incoming secretary general are positive and widely endorse him as the right choice for this post. Let us hope that he will oversee all the important issues, give immediate attention to deadly issues and will work along with the international community to make a consensus in resolving conflicts and bring peace to this world with a stern hand.

International relations and its issues can not be limited or restricted. They are constantly changing and evolving, and the international community needs to be more resilient and adaptive in order to function at its highest capacity.

The UN has the institutional framework which, empowered by international law and the Geneva Conventions, can take the lead in finding solutions for any conflicts across the world. However, every IR scholar knows that without the backing of the US the UN’s stance would be powerless. Moreover, to carry forward the any proactive UN role the United States support can not be compromised. With unexpected events taking place in the US, president-elect Donald Trump would be the first leader in the history of US politics to be openly disliked by state leaders and his own citizens. With organised rallies, the appearance of posters stating ‘He is not my President’ and a number of debates across social media, serious questions are being about Trump’s presidency.

Though President Barak Obama was praised for his orator-ship, he could only impact minimum issues and some critics state he did not reach his expectations in the year 2016. However, his strong stance on non-intervention, withdrawal of the US military from the Middle East will stand strongly for him in the future. At the same time, the new president-elect of the US is already impacting the world stronger than ever. Russia is happy about the election results as Trump is batting for Russia. Would this mean that the new US policy will attempt to dismantle Russia-China relations? China is not happy about the new US president-elect. India has no opinion but there are expectations for closer ties with the US because of Prime Minister Modi and Trump’s shared policy disarray and inconstant personality traits.

The more international issues are in rise the intervention of the US president with rational act would be crucial for resolving conflicts. So far, Trump has not shown any maturity in his statements on global affairs. Contested statements in his name make the global stage more confusing and reduce his image as a trustworthy global leader.

Will the important global issues that remain unresolved or not a high priority in the year 2016 receive attention from the new US president in the New Year 2017? This has no immediate answer. The UN and the US are strongly expected to lead the way for useful solutions to the global problems. We have crossed the year 2016 with some achievements but not with great disappointments. Hence, we have hope that the international community will fight to save humanity from the natural and manmade disasters.

Antony Clement is a Senior Editor (Asia-Pacific), Modern Diplomacy an online journal. He is a researcher in Indian Foreign Policy. He consults on academic development and he is currently working on two books - “Discover your Talents” and “Diplomacy in Tough Times”. His research centres on India’s diplomacy & foreign policy and extends to domestic politics, economic policy, security issues, and international security matters, including India’s relations with the US, the BRICS nations, the EU and Australia.

Continue Reading
Comments

International Law

Transition of Balance of Power from Unipolar to Multipolar World Order

Fatima Arif

Published

on

The international system may be described as a complex system of social, scientific, political, military and technological systems. This dynamic structure is very difficult to evaluate and it is even more difficult to predict its future.

The distribution of power potential in the international system defines the number of major powers and thus the international system’s polarity. The system would be multi-polar if the great powers are more than two; if they are two it would be bipolar and systems with only one great power are called unipolar.

It can be expected in the future multipolar world that the global economy does not settle with a couple of significant nations but rather with multiple nations of varying capabilities. In the limited arena of affairs pertaining to their country, each state with its particular notable qualities will have decisive say. Beyond the US, Japan, China, the EU, and India are capable of economic influence due to their advancements in technology, increasing economy, and large population base. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, African Union countries and Brazil will have an impact, owing to their large energy reserves. Russia should have preferences for both. Because of their geostrategic location such as Pakistan, Central Asia, Ukraine and Turkey, a few nations will have some regional influence because these nations are situated on the energy routes from which energy resources would be on route to other parts of the world.

United States and the Changing World Order

There is a broad bipartisan consensus within US political leadership that the country must remain a global leader / world leading power. This assumption in its re-eminence also comes with the fundamental underpinnings that the United States will lead the world to freedom and liberty. Its third term is resolve to contain China.

It’s troubling to what extent the US continues to pursue China’s containment. The’ democracy alliance’ or the’ pivot to Asia’ are examples of US designs. China too, because of its part, diverted from the usual cautious approach and its proclaimed strategy of’ peaceful progression’ to an unambiguous stance on the South China Sea. Right now, however, the condition does not appear to come to a head-on collision anytime far. Yet the contest could bring a serious and dangerous situation to the fore. The US is not going to communicate directly with its forces on the field. There is a lot of resistance for another war at home. This doesn’t mean the US is ineffective. What we have is a hegemon with a diminishing power and a reluctance to give up his position of leadership. At the other hand, there is no other country capable of replacing it while they frequently seek to question its authority. Chinese occasional deviation from caution, and reluctance on the part of the US to yield, build a dangerous situation.

Decline of the Unipolar System

The U.S. has been the only hegemony since the end of the Cold War, but since the economic crisis of 2008 its world hegemony has been undermined. The gap in power between China and the US is diminishing. In 2011, China’s GDP contributed for around half of the US GDP. If China’s GDP continues to rise at 8.5 per cent and US GDP increases at less than 3.8 per cent, the current gap between the two forces will level out in the decade to come. Meanwhile, the economic gap between these two nations and the other major powers will continue to expand over the next ten years. In the next five years, only the US and China will spend more than $100 billion annually on defense, growing the difference in power between them and the others. Accordingly, the international structure would not be unipolar.

International Players That Can Change the International World Order In 21st Century (Analytical Approach)

Bipolar global structure collapsed by the end of the Cold War. The United States has become the sole superpower and as expressed in the new industrial order of defense, the international structure has become unipolar. The major powers of the global community are China, Russia, Japan and the E.U. Whether the international system can turn into a bipolar or multipolar system depends on developments in many countries and regions in technological, political, economic, and military terms. China, Russia, Japan, the EU and India have the power to change their international structure. In the last twenty-five years, China’s capacities have steadily increased in magnitudes that significantly restructure the international order. Economic prosperity for China goes hand in hand with the advancement of science and technology. It is developing expensive weapons systems that are increasingly capable compared to developed countries ‘ most advanced weapons systems. Another important determinant of the future of the international community is the relative dominance of the U.S. in science, technical, economic and military capacities compared to other major powers.

Conclusion

The position of emerging states, which influence the range and change of the international system, is very difficult to comprehend. The general outlines of what is happening with this phenomenon are becoming more evident, as transition happens under intense internal dynamic conditions and not from external factors. There is a group of candidates that can be considered growing powers, and there are rapid bursts in this phase of transition, but it is longer than expected. Under conditions of changing institutionalization a central component of these changes occurs. Yet there is also a gap in the assumptions regarding the principles of collaboration and conflict. National interests and principles are certainly the most significant in the changing world order, and these can also lead to deeply complex and frustrated bargaining situations that need to be resolved by enhanced collaboration at the state level. Joined societies dissolve, along with the old beliefs. According to different ideas of world system, that countries are not less divided, and they can constantly struggle and communicate with each other at the same time. Therefore, the future multi-polar system would be no different from the other multi-polar moments that history has seen, resulting in more chaos and unpredictability than in the current unipolar world. Nevertheless, multi-polarity does not only carry the risks involved in researching balance of power among great powers for the first time in history.

Continue Reading

International Law

The UN reforms are required to make it functional

Published

on

Today, the world we live in has become more unpredictable, insecure, and exposed to more vulnerability. Geopolitics is changing rapidly, new problems are often emerging, while old issues remained unresolved. Humankind is under threats and challenges; some of them might be natural disasters, like Earthquakes, Floods, Fires, Valconos, Pandemic, etc. But most of the difficulties and problems are man-made, creation of some powerful countries, the result of over-ambitions, greed, expansionism, biases and jealousy. Big and more muscular countries are keeping eyes on the natural resources of small and weaker nations, etc.

In 1945, the United Nations was established to replace the League of Nations. Because the League of Nations was unable to solve most of the problems faced by the world, unable to resolve conflicts and wars, unable to protect human lives, unable to maintain justice and equality, the failure of achieving objects, the League of Nations was dissolved, and UN was established.

The UN was established with the following four objectives:

Maintaining worldwide peace and security

Developing relations among nations

Fostering cooperation between nations in order to solve economic, social, cultural, or humanitarian international problems

Providing a forum for bringing countries together to meet the UN’s purposes and goals

UN Charter was written by very professionals and experts in their own fields. The Charter is comprehensive and based on many considerations, satisfying almost the needs of nearly everyone at that time. Considering the disaster of the Second World war, the Charter was considered a most appropriate document to address practically all concerns.

The UN has been functioning since 1945 and ready to celebrate its 75th anniversary soon. At this moment, if we look at the performance of the UN, there are many things one can mention as achievements or in the UN’s credit. No doubt, in the early days of the Establishment of the UN, the objectives achieved were rated quite well. However, over time, the UN was politicized, and some of the countries, who were a major donor to UN contribution, were using the UN and its structures to achieve their political objectives. They were misusing the UN platform to coerce some other nations or using UN umbrella to achieve political of economic goals by harming other nations. On the other hand, geopolitics became so complicated and complex that the existing structure of the UN is unable to meet the challenges of the modern world.

Just, for example, Afghan is under war for the last four decades, people are being killed in routine matters, foreign intervention caused the loss of precious lives and economic disaster to people of Afghanistan. Iraq war, Libya War, Syria war, Yemen War, the situation in Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Venezuela, Ukraine, somewhat more complicated conflict among the U.S., Iran, Israel, and the Persian Gulf, U.S.-North Korea tussle, and Kashmir, all are remained unresolved under the current structure of the UN.

Should we remain silent spectators and keep the status quo, and let the humankind suffer more? Should we justify ourselves as helpless and let the more powerful kills more human beings? Should we remain in isolation and keep our self busy with our own interests? Should we compromise with our conscious? Should we ignore our inner voice? Should we prove ourselves as innocent and not responsible such crimes committed by someone else?

Think and thing smartly, and consider yourself in the same situation and a victim, what we should be expecting from other nations, the international community, and the UN. We must do the same thing to meet the expectations of the victims.

The UN is unable to achieve its objectives with the current structure; the reforms are inevitable. We must strengthen the UN and transform the current dysfunctional UN to a more effective UN, which should satisfy the core issues of all nations. Africa is a major continent, and facing many challenges, but have no say in the UN; there is no single country from Africa in the Security Council of the UN as a permanent member having veto power. The Muslim world, having an estimated population of two billion, every fourth person in this world is a Muslim, there are 57 independent sovereign countries as member f the UN,m but no voice in the UN, no permanent member of UNSC, no veto power, who will protect their rights and who will look after their interests. Should they remain at the mercy of the current five permanent members of the UNSC?

Some countries are rebellious to the UN; some states are defaulter of the UN, and not implementing the resolutions passed by UNSC. Some countries have bypassed the UN and imposed war or sanctions on other nations. They must be held responsible for their acts, the UN should kick such countries out of the UN, and their membership may be suspended or cancelled.

It is time to introduce, comprehensive reforms in the UN, to address all issues faced by today’s modern, complex and rather complicated world. An appropriate representation of all nations, groups, ethnicity or religion should be ensured. The UN has a heavy responsibility, deserve more budgets, more powers and needed to be strengthened further.

Continue Reading

International Law

Coronavirus Shaping The Contours Of The Modern World

Nageen Ashraf

Published

on

Globalization vs. Protectionism:

Globalization means the movement of ideas, products, technology, and people across borders and different cultures. It is a multi-dimensional phenomenon. It has social, cultural, economic, political and legal aspects. Globalization has made the world a global village and talks about co-operation and interdependence. Protectionism, on the other hand, is the restriction of movement of goods and products across borders to protect the national industries and economy. The major goal of protectionism is to boost up national economy, but protectionist measures can also be applied for security purposes. So, we can say that protectionists are basically anti-globalists and prefer domestic strength as compared to foreign co-operation.

Protectionism and Covid-19

Globalization has made the world so interdependent and interconnected that any economic or political change in one state creates a domino effect and influence many other states. For the pandemic, most states were initially blaming China, but as it slowly healed and the pandemic caused more devastating impacts in the western states, more fingers are pointing towards globalization. Multiple narratives are building regarding globalization where protectionists finally got a chance to prove how right they were all along.

Globalization not only played a vital role in the spread of this epidemic, it also made the economic crisis go global by affecting the supply chains. An epidemic that affected a single city in Dec, 2019, grew to become a pandemic affecting almost every state in the world through movement of people and goods. States that adopted strict measures and restricted the movement of people, have relatively less cases of corona virus as compared to other states. The worst impacts of corona virus so far can be seen in USA where New York City was initially the epicenter.

New York City is definitely one of the most crowded cities in the world where daily, thousands of people move in and out for various purposes. This could be one of the reasons of such devastating impacts of corona in NYC because the free circulation of people and goods allowed the virus to spread exponentially. On the other hand, if we talk about African continent, where most states are under developed, and the movement of people in and out of the continent is very less as compared to Europe and Americas, reported cases of corona virus are very low. As of Sep 11, 2020, in the whole continent, the highest number of corona cases is in South Africa, with a count of642k as compared to USA’s count of 6.49m. This provides evidence that movement of people played a vital role in the spread of this virus and movement of people has increased a lot since the rise of globalization.

Critiques of globalization also argue that globalization is to be blamed for an epidemic that spread across borders and will soon plunge the whole world into recession. Interdependence because of globalization has made the world more vulnerable to such situations. For instance, China is one of the biggest markets in the world that exports antibiotics and telecommunications and remains an important part of most of the global supply chains. Half of the world’s surgical masks were made by China, even before pandemic. So, when the pandemic struck Wuhan, China, the supplies from China to the rest of the world affected many states that were dependent on China, and they ran out of important pharmaceutical inputs. Even the developed states like France ran out of medical masks and had to suffer because of lack of important medical equipment. This reveals the cost of such deeply interconnected global supply chains that create a domino effect.

Is Globalization ending?

Globalization has made the world a global village and undoubtedly facilitated the free movement of people, goods, ideas, cultures, information, and technology across borders. But on the other hand, it has also played a major role in the spread of diseases and has made states vulnerable to unexpected shocks. Globalists also believe that the medical or health consequences of corona would prove less destructive if states work together instead of working separately for the vaccine, as a competition. Adopting the nationalist or isolationist approach during the pandemic would crash the international economy and further increase the tensions. As the protectionists suggest, if we’d continue to protect only our national economies and keep on putting barriers on international trade, the national recession would soon turn into a global depression, as happened in 1930’s.Timely economic recovery is only possible through global cooperation.

 I think that the threat of Covid-19 has created an extraordinary situation. Originating from Asia, and then causing millions of deaths all around the globe, the blame on globalization is legitimate. Most of the states in the world rely on their tourism revenue that has been affected badly due to corona virus. For instance, Saudi Authorities decided to cancel Hajj because of growing pandemic, and the impact on KSA’s economy would be dramatic. Similarly, Japan is one of the states that depend highly on tourism revenue from Chinese tourists and travel restrictions have caused severe losses. We have also seen how the supply chains are affected just because one of the major producers (China) was badly hit by the virus. Globalization seems to have conquered the world so there is no way that it can be avoided completely. However, after the pandemic, there might be a little change in the world order regarding high interdependency. States that were mostly dependent on China for their important supplies might try to produce the supplies on their own and prioritize their domestic industries over foreign industries because of the consequences they had to bear during the pandemic. Similarly, travel bans will surely be removed but people might hesitate to cross borders and move freely because there will be awareness regarding the risks related to free movement. So, I think that the pandemic has highlighted some backlashes in globalization, but it doesn’t mean that globalization has failed. We can say that it is fragile, despite or even because of its benefits.

Continue Reading

Publications

Latest

Trending