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Trump vs. The Robots: US jobs and Promises

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Among political observers, there is a widespread notion that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will inherit an economy in the best of shape. Inflation is down to historic and desirable levels, the unemployment rate stands at 4.9% and U.S. economic growth is better than expected. Moreover, observers can’t help but hear Mr. Trump’s boastful rhetoric as soon as he steps onto the bully pulpit. But as promising as the picture might seem, it will be very difficult to carry off his promise of ‘getting back our jobs’ in the long term.

Since 1980’s and up to the 2000’s, the world has undergone immense changes. The most prominent and significant being that in the realm of technology. And, the internet generates new, mind boggling marvels with each passing day – and continues to do so. Through the ‘Internet of Things’ and automation people are experiencing massive changes in the way the world works while scientists are signing letters foreboding the dangers of the rising AI. U.S. politicians and the media have typically blamed offshoring [usually to China] and international trade agreements for wrecking the domestic economy. A University of California study asserts that approximately 14 million white collar jobs are susceptible to off-shoring [5]. Ron and Anil Hira, in their book “Outsourcing America, believe that US companies justify off-shoring by arguing that to create more jobs domestically through cost savings are “self-delusion.” (Ron Hira is a professor at the Rochester Institute of Technology and Anial Hira is a professor at Simon Fraser University.)

In other words, it is not the intervention of foreigners which leads to the scarcity of jobs but automation. There are two vocal camps on this issue: One believes that automation, instead of creating a paucity of jobs instead leads to the creation of more job opportunities. And the other camp remains certain that, despite the spread of AI and factory robots, their jobs will remain intact during the next coming years, as reported by a research paper issued by the non-partisan PEW Research Center. Experts surveyed by Pew called for a more optimistic approach: “many jobs currently performed by humans will be substantially taken over by robots or digital agents by 2025. But they have faith that human ingenuity will create new jobs, industries, and ways to make a living, just as it has been doing since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution”. However, there are dissenters as well.

Justin Reich, a fellow at Harvard University’s Berkman Center for Internet & Society, says: “Robots and AI will increasingly replace routine kinds of work − I’m not sure that jobs will disappear altogether, though that seems possible, but the jobs that are left will be lower-paying and less secure than those that exist now. The middle is moving to the bottom.”

One can see very clearly how technologies are replacing even white-collar jobs and thus breaking the presumption that only routine and repetitive jobs are at danger from automation. Take for example, the case of Enlitic: A deep-learning system that is now being tested in Australia. The software can diagnose diseases, analyze X-rays and identify cancer. Moreover, the field of medicine is not the only profession feeling the heat of automation. Jobs in the field of law are also vulnerable. There is software in existence that can rummage through dossiers of legal documents and easily pin-point the desired files.

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“Automation is now “blind to the color of your collar”, declares Jerry Kaplan, author of “Humans Need Not Apply”, a book that predicts upheaval in the labor market.

Another Perspective

The other camp, however, is trying to peddle a more positive future. Debunking the ‘lump of labor’ fallacy which states that there is a finite amount of work and automation, and hence opening a chasm between jobs and peoples, the proponents state that automating a task results in creating more tasks as more people or different processes are now required to operate that ‘automated’ job. Again quoting The Economist, “During the Industrial Revolution more and more tasks in the weaving process were automated, prompting workers to focus on the things machines could not do, such as operating a machine, and then tending multiple machines to keep them running smoothly. This caused output to grow explosively. In America during the 19th century the amount of coarse cloth a single weaver could produce in an hour increased by a factor of 50, and the amount of labor required per yard of cloth fell by 98%. This made cloth cheaper and increased demand for it, which in turn created more jobs for weavers: their numbers quadrupled between 1830 and 1900. In other words, technology gradually changed the nature of the weaver’s job, and the skills required to do it, rather than replacing it altogether,” says James Bessen, an economist at Boston University School of Law said.

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“We already have cars that talk to us, a phone we can talk to, robots that lift the elderly out of bed, and apps that remind us to call Mom. An app can dial Mom’s number and even send flowers, but an app can’t do the most human of all things: emotionally connect with her,” according to Pamela Rutledge, PhD and director of the Media Psychology Research Center.

When Mr. Trump assumes office on 20th January, 2017, he says that one of his first priorities, among other things, is to repeal the Trans-Pacific Partners or otherwise known as “TPP.” And Trump intends to lure back U.S. companies by offering lower taxes (if not through sheer brute force as displayed in his negotiations with the air conditioner manufacture, Carrier). And yet, at the same point, Trump promises more government spending e.g. Infrastructure development.   Economists generally agree that lower taxes and increased spending will increase U.S. debt which may potentially lead to a ruinous outcome for the US Economy. Nevertheless, Americans who voted for him count on his actions and his promises, including bringing thousands of jobs back to the US. Therefore, observers must consider the question: What is that is more dangerous? Off-shoring or Automation?

Independent Economic Analyst, Writer and Editor. Contributes columns to different newspapers. He is a columnist for Oilprice.com, where he analyzes Crude Oil and markets. Also a sub-editor of an online business magazine and a Guest Editor in Modern Diplomacy. His interests range from Economic history to Classical literature.

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Finding the missing links of black-hole astronomy

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An accreting SMBH in a fairly local galaxy with very large and extended radio jets. © R. Timmerman; LOFAR & Hubble Space Telescope

A deeper understanding of black holes could revolutionise our understanding of physics, but their mysterious nature makes them difficult to observe.

The weirdness exhibited by black holes boggles the mind. Formed when a star burns all its nuclear fuel and collapses under its own gravitation, black holes are such oddities that at one time, even Einstein didn’t think they were possible.

They are regions in space with such intense gravitation that not even light escapes their pull. Once magnificent shining stars burn out and shrink to a relatively tiny husk, all their mass is concentrated in a small space. Imagine our Sun with its diameter of roughly 1.4 million kilometres shrinking to a black hole the size of a small city just six kilometres across. This compactness gives black holes immense gravitational pull.

Not only do they trap light, black holes can shred any stars they encounter and even merge with each other. Events like this release bursts of energy that are detectable from billions of light years away.

The Nobel Prize in Physics 2020 was shared by scientists who discovered an invisible object at the heart of the Milky Way that pulls stars towards it. This is a supermassive black hole, or SMBH, and it has a mass that is millions of times that of our sun. 

‘At the heart of every massive galaxy, we think there is a supermassive black hole,’ said astrophysicist Dr Kenneth Duncan at the Royal Observatory in Edinburgh, UK. ‘We also think they play a really important role in how galaxies form, including the Milky Way.’

Galactic monsters

Supermassive black holes are gravitating monsters of the Universe. ‘Black holes at the centre of galaxies can be between a million and a few billion times the mass of our Sun,’ said Professor Phillip Best, astrophysicist at the University of Edinburgh. 

They pull in gas and dust from their surroundings, even objects as large as stars. Just before this material falls in towards the black hole’s event horizon or point of no return, it moves quickly and heats up, emitting energy as energetic flashes. Powerful jets of material that emit radio waves may also spew out from this ingestion process.

These can be detected on Earth using radio telescopes such as Europe’s LOFAR, which has detectors in the UK, Ireland, France, the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Poland and Latvia.

Duncan is tapping LOFAR observations to identify the massive black holes in a project called HIZRAD. ‘We can detect growing black holes further back in time,’ said Duncan, ‘with the goal being to find the very first and some of the most extreme black holes in the Universe.’

LOFAR can pinpoint even obscured black holes. Duncan has used artificial intelligence techniques to combine data from LOFAR and telescope surveys to identify objects of interest.

Better instruments

Better instruments will soon assist in this task. An upgrade to the William Herschel Telescope on La Palma, Spain, will allow it to observe thousands of galaxies at the same time. A spectroscope called WEAVE has the potential to detect supermassive black holes and to observe star and galaxy formation.   

Radio signals indicate that supermassive black holes exist from as early as the first 5-10% of the Universe’s history. These are a billion solar masses, explained Best, who is the research supervisor.

The surprising part is that these giants existed at the early stages of the Universe. ‘You’ve got to get all this mass into a very small volume and do it extremely quickly, in terms of the Universe’s history,’ said Best. 

We know that following the Big Bang, the Universe began as an expanding cloud of primordial matter. Studies of the cosmic background radiation indicate that eventually clumps of matter came together to form stars. However, ‘The process where you form a blackhole as large as a billion solar masses is not fully understood,’ said Best.

Intermediate black holes

While studies of SMBHs are ongoing, Dr Peter Jonker, astronomer at Radboud University in Nijmegen, the Netherlands, is intrigued by the formation of black holes of intermediate scale.

He is studying the possible existence of intermediate black holes (IMBH) with the imbh project. He notes that supermassive black holes have been observed from when the Universe was only 600 million years old. Scientists estimate the overall age of the universe to be around 13.8 billion years.

‘The Universe started out like a homogenous soup of material, so how do you get clumps that weigh a billion times the mass of the sun in a very short time?’ said Jonker.

While supermassive black holes might consume sun-like stars (called white dwarfs) in their entirety, IMBHs should be powerful enough to only shred them, emitting a revealing flash of energy.

‘When a compact star, a white dwarf, is ripped apart, it can be ripped only by intermediate mass black holes,’ said Jonker. ‘Supermassive black holes eat them whole.’ There are strong indications that intermediate black holes are out there, but there’s no proof yet.

He is searching for flashes of intense X-ray energy to indicate the presence of an intermediate black hole. The problem is when signals are detected, the intense flashes last just a few hours. This means the data arrives too late be able to turn optical telescopes towards the source for observations.

‘This happens once in 10,000 years per galaxy, so we haven’t seen one yet in our Milky Way,’ said Jonker.

Jonker also seeks to observe the expected outcome of two black holes spinning and merging, then emitting a gravitational wave that bumps nearby stars. However, to discern these stars being jolted necessitates powerful space-based telescopes.

X-ray flashes

The Gaia satellite, launched in 2013, is providing some assistance, but a planned mission called Euclid will take higher resolution images and may help Jonker prove IMBHs exist. This satellite was due to be launched on a Russian rocket; it will now be launched with a slight delay on a European Ariane 6 rocket

Nonetheless, a small satellite – the Chinese Einstein Probe – is scheduled for launch in 2023 and will look out for flashes of X-ray energy that could signify intermediate black holes. Duncan in Edinburgh says that the search for intermediate black holes ties in with his own quest. ‘It can potentially help us solve the question of where the supermassive ones came from,’ he said.

Right now, physicists rely on quantum theory and Einstein’s equations to describe how the Universe works. These cannot be the final say, however, because they do not fit well together.

‘The theory of gravity breaks down near a black hole, and if we observe them closely enough,’ said Jonker, ‘Our expectation is that we will find deviations from the theory and important advances in understanding how physics works.’

The research in this article was funded by the EU. This article was originally published in Horizon, the EU Research and Innovation Magazine.  

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Tech needs girls, and girls need tech

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The UN says, globally, 17 percent more men and boys have access to the internet compared to women and girls. ITU/R. Farrell

More and more young women and girls are highlighting the importance of access and safety in the digital world. Marking International Girls in ICT Day, on Thursday, UN agencies have issued a call to action to ensure equal access to digital learning opportunities.

The International Girls in ICT Day is observed annually during the last week of April, and this year the focus is on ‘Access and Safety’ as key elements to engage the next generation with information and communication technology (ICT).

According to the UN International Telecommunication Union (ITU), this year’s theme “reflects the world’s shared interest in empowering youth and girls to safely benefit from an active digital life.

Fair and equal

The UN agency recognizes the need to ensure girls and women enjoy equal access to digital learning opportunities, particularly in least developed countries.

Worldwide only 30 per cent of tech science and technology professionals are women. And according to ITU’s latest data, globally, just 57 per cent of women use the Internet, compared to 62 per cent of men.

Furthermore, if women are unable to access the Internet and do not feel safe online, they are unable to develop the necessary digital skills and engage in digital spaces, which diminishes their opportunities to pursue careers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) related fields, ITU continued.

Inspire the next generation

“Girls in ICT Day is a call to action to inspire the next generation of young women and girls to enter STEM careers,” said ITU Secretary-General Houlin Zhao.

Calling on all government, business, university leaders and others, to do their utmost to support young women and girls, Mr. Zhao said that is essential to “give them the chance to achieve their dreams.”

Girls’ access to STEM is crucial

Joining the call, UN Women reiterated the importance of ensuring every girl has safe and meaningful access to digital technology and ICTs.

In a statement marking the Day, the agency said they were inspired by young activists such as 18-year-old Ana Vizitiv from the Republic of Moldova, whose work promotes gender equality in ICT and STEM, and by role model and entrepreneur 20-year-old Yordanos Genanaw from Ethiopia, who participated in the African Girls Can Code initiative and is now developing a website and coaching others.

“These young women are using their skills to inspire other girls to pursue coding and basic IT skills, regardless of gender biases”, the statement continued.

Reminding that girls’ access to, and engagement in STEM subjects, is more crucial now than ever – especially after the COVID-19 pandemic and multiple crises in countries across the world have created repeated challenges to young women and girls to learn, earn and connect – UN Women reiterated the importance of technology as a solution to access essential services and information.

Technology also helps them communicate in school, keep in touch with friends and relatives and as a key aspect of their autonomy and future prospects.

Persistent negative stereotypes

A recent study by UN Women and ITU shows that girls access digital technology at a later age than boys, and that their use of this technology is more often curtailed by their parents.

In addition, young women and girls are disproportionately exposed to online and ICT-facilitated violence and harassment, which can negatively impact their physical, mental, and emotional well-being, and influence how they access and use digital tools for the rest of their lives, UN Women added.

Built upon the idea that “every girl has the right to be connected and safe, and to play her part in shaping a more equal, green and tech-driven future”, the UN Secretary-General has called for a global digital compact for improved digital cooperation.

The Generation Equality Action Coalition for Technology and Innovation for Gender Equality is bringing together governments, tech companies, the UN System, civil society organizations and young people, for a more equal and diverse digital transformation, including by preventing and eliminating online gender-based violence.

Marking the Day, UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed called for an end to systemic barriers: “Girls continue to face cyber bullying and threats, and a lack of access due to digital divide”, she said on Twitter, asking for a transformation in tech and innovation, to be “equitable, safe and accessible”.

Across the UN system, agencies spoke up for gender equality in STEM. The UN cultural agency UNESCO called for the empowerment of young girls in ICT, so they can have a future lead in the workplace. The UN refugee agency mentioned the importance of not forgetting the digital access for refugees, and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reiterated the need to guarantee better access to digital technologies, for rural women and girls.

Join the digital revolution

The global celebration and associated worldwide Girls in ICT Day events underline ITU’s commitment to encourage girls and young women everywhere to consider pursuing STEM career paths.

To date, over 600,000 girls and young women have taken part in more than 12,000 celebrations of Girls in ICT Day in 195 countries worldwide.

“All over the world, girls and young women want to join the digital revolution. When we remove barriers of access and safety, women and girls can make remarkable contributions to, and be empowered by, ICTs. To put it simply: tech needs girls, and girls need tech,” said Doreen Bogdan-Martin, Director of ITU’s Telecommunication Development Bureau.”

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Changing the conversation about science through citizen communicators

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Initiatives to help citizen science projects communicate about their results are paving the way for ordinary people to take the lead as effective and trustworthy science communicators. 

While citizen science is blossoming, partly as a result of social media, so too are the channels we use to communicate. In response, we sometimes create a filter bubble around ourselves, tending to gravitate towards communications that reinforce our own view of the world while blocking out others.

Selective listening

The tendency towards selective listening prevents consensus-forming on the big issues of our time. At its worst, misinformation, fake news and bias infiltrate the discussions and undermine trust. 

Dr Jason Pridmore, Associate professor at the Erasmus School of History, Culture and Communication, is coordinating the TRESCA project that looks at how to develop trust in science through improved communication about scientific discoveries. 

While his team did encounter a growing distrust in established institutions and media, the news is not all bad.

‘We tend to trust our friends and family, their political viewpoints or their perspectives on science, before we actually go to the next step of looking at science communicators,’ said Dr Pridmore.

At the same time, his team also found that we have a surprisingly high willingness to factcheck a piece of information.

‘People don’t just willingly listen to everything. They have become a bit more cautious,’ he said. ‘I think the COVID-19 pandemic has made us question the information we receive, and people are willing to fact check and see things for themselves.’

Quality counts

The TRESCA project partnered with Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell, an animation studio and YouTube channel with over 18 million subscribers.

Using stylised animations, the German-based Kurzgesagt channel specialises in explaining complex scientific topics in an easily understandable way. The channel’s videos have had nearly 2 billion views. 

On the subject of challenges faced by experts and science communicators, Kurzgesagt created a highly successful video about science communication with more than 9 million views at time of writing. 

‘One of our most interesting findings was that the degree of production actually correlates in our research with the trust that we have,’ said Dr Pridmore. Kurzgesagt’s world-class animations and production values have a direct effect on how much trust people place in them.

Rosa Arias is CEO & founder of scienceforchange.eu and coordinator of the NEWSERA project which aims to boost the potential of citizen science as a tool to communicate about science. She agrees that prioritising high quality and tailored communication material is key, in particular for citizen science projects.

‘As citizen science practitioners, you need to know how to communicate effectively with the citizens if you want to engage them, with policy makers if you want to have impact on policy, with industry if you want to get them on board, and with fellow scientists to share and validate data,’ Arias said. ‘This means you need to adapt your messages, your channels, your strategies all the time.’

All subjects apply

There are 38 citizen science initiatives taking part in the NEWSERA project, based in Spain, Italy and Portugal. The multitude of topics they address demonstrates that a citizen science approach can be applied to a surprisingly wide range of societal challenges and scientific fields, including social sciences and humanities.

RiuNet, for example, is a citizen science app that guides citizens in diagnosing the ecological status of a river. This data can contribute to better management and conservation of freshwater.    

Genigma involves citizens in the construction of genomic reference maps that will help researchers understand which parts of the human genome play a role in the development of cancer. 

The Cities at Night project invites people to explore a catalogue of nocturnal images of cities and help classify them. This can have implications in the field of human health, light pollution and ecology. 

‘The projects generate a lot of data that is not immediately accessible for citizens. But the data is relevant for society because they address matters of concern for citizens,’ said Arias. 

NEWSERA helps projects come up with tailored communication plans with indicators to measure the effectiveness and impact of the communication activities towards specific target audiences.

This support helps projects understand how to present and communicate their findings in a way that makes it more digestible to the public, scientists, policymakers and industry.

Tapping into the personal dimension

With an engineering background, Arias is an expert in odour pollution from industrial sources. She developed an app, OdourCollect, that gives people the ability to record their perception of odours, wherever they are, so it can be monitored and acted on. 

‘With a subject like odour pollution, citizens get engaged because they are concerned about the kind of pollution they are exposed to in their daily life and they want to do something about it,’ Arias said. ‘And by using an app like OdourCollect, citizens become science communicators themselves.’

Active participants use communication differently than scientists, journalists or policymakers would, with messages that are targeted to fellow citizens. 

‘They also use different channels,’ said Arias. ‘For example, they talk with each other in their neighbourhood on a daily basis.’

The personal dimension citizen science brings to science communication is also highlighted by Silke Voigt-Heucke. She is responsible for citizen science research at Berlin’s Museum für Naturkunde.

‘For trust, you need to build personal relationships, and that’s why local citizen science initiatives are so important,’ said Voigt-Heucke. ‘They can help people meet around one activity that might be decoupled from all the other things that divide them.’

Science is open

‘Citizen science projects can show how science is open for suggestions and ideas and co creation,’ she said.

She coordinates the development of the EU-Citizen.Science project, a platform to connect all existing citizen science projects in Europe. 

‘The idea was that the platform would be a network of networks,’ said Voigt-Heucke. In the past decade, citizen science has become established all across Europe. Projects have achieved important funding and many national platforms have been established. 

‘What was lacking was one platform that could connect them all,’ she said.

NEWSERA will use the EU-Citizen.Science platform as an open access repository for the communication blueprints they will produce. The blueprints are detailed guidelines about how to communicate about citizen science results and benefits that practitioners and curious citizens can consult.

‘This helps citizen science practitioners feel they are not alone anymore,’ said Arias. 

The research in this article was funded by the EU. This article was originally published in Horizon, the EU Research and Innovation Magazine.  

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