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Market Insights: A new year full of challenges

Osama Rizvi

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A new year—new issues, new aims and ambitions. In the first snippet of Market Insights let us see what are the most pressing issues in the political economy in this year. Let us start with the European shock—Brexit. Theresa May has said to invoke the article 50 in March. Pound Sterling is expected go down in the coming months as the uncertainty looms over the economic performance of the UK under the new trade relations the medium and method of which will be formed in the coming months.

It can take years as well. In the words of the UK Ambassador, Sir Ivan Rogers, who sang his swan song few days back saying that “Brexit negotiations can take up to 10 years.” The elections in France and then afterwards in Germany and Netherlands also pose threat to the integration of EU subsequently affecting the economic health of the zone.

US dollar is in news of-late. It has surged to a 14 years high. This rally has pros and cons. More cons if we consider the plight of the countries that have to buy the commodities in US dollars. A strong dollar may prove detrimental for US companies as the demand for their products outside US becomes low. Last year when Federal Reserve Bank of America increased its interest rate by 0.25 percent the US Iphone giant—Apple Inc. suffered a loss of billions as its demand in China (which constitutes one third of demand for Iphone) plunged down. A strong dollar creates trouble for other countries as well. China, of-late, is fighting a ‘capital flight’. Around $500bn of capital has fluttered from China and settled into US.

Crude Oil which was the most talked about commodity in 2016 (actually it has always been) has seen its best year after 2014. While touching $26 a barrel it now stands at $56 in the aftermath of the Vienna deal on November 30th. The OPEC and NOPEC oil producers have been successful reaching an entente which will take out 1.8 mbpd of supply out of the glut. The deal has been put into effect from 1st January and a meeting has been called for monitoring the results (too early) on 21st and 22nd January. Future of oil prices solely depends upon the cooperation between the OPEC and NOPEC members. Especially, Russia. Albeit, the history of cooperation in past is checkered this time the countries seem serious. And there is a reason for it. Saudi Arabia, who has taken the largest individual production cut, has suffered a lot from this war between Sheikhs and Shale. Russia is tackling a declining economy as it suffers from low oil prices and sanctions from the West. Venezuela is the worst of all. Not only economically but also politically. There is a referendum brewing there as well. The threat to the deal however comes from the countries that have been given exemption: Nigeria, Libya, and Iraq. Libya, few days ago, added 85,000 of barrels in production. The deal hinges on the whims of the leaders but the case should have been otherwise.

China economy is still in the process of shifting from Old to New. Chinese growth is expected to slow down from 6.7pc to 6.5 pc this year. A troublesome real-estate market, less investments and other structural issues further fuels the concerns. Russia’s economy is expected to do well—but only slight—as the prospects of oil prices improve. Europe is preparing to embrace with a rightist flood and on-going refugee crisis. And we hope that it gets through with it. Middle-East especially Syria, is, of-late experiencing a truce but as it has always been, this peace is extremely susceptible and temporary.

The world in 2017 is full of challenges. It is up to us, now, either we deal with them or they with us.

Independent Economic Analyst, Writer and Editor. Contributes columns to different newspapers. He is a columnist for Oilprice.com, where he analyzes Crude Oil and markets. Also a sub-editor of an online business magazine and a Guest Editor in Modern Diplomacy. His interests range from Economic history to Classical literature.

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Energy

We Need a Global Fund to Ensure a Clean Energy Revolution

MD Staff

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A radical new approach to energy innovation is needed if the sector is to meet the demands placed on it by the Paris Climate Agreement and play a positive role in the fight against climate change. This is the main finding of a white paper, Accelerating Sustainable Energy Innovation, published today by the World Economic Forum.

With energy consumption and production representing two thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions, business as usual is no longer an option. Increasing the pace at which innovative sustainable energy solutions get to market is critical to diversify the energy technology landscape and to meet the Paris targets at affordable costs.

The white paper, produced with analytical support from KPMG, highlights that while technology and innovation policies have been successful in rapidly scaling up some renewable technologies such as solar, photovoltaics and wind power in the past decade, the breadth of innovation and the way it has been coordinated have been disappointing. Because investments in energy technology typically require long investment horizons and entail high technological risks, the sector has struggled to attract sufficient amounts of funding, or to align the investments of those active in the space.

“Unleashing the full power of entrepreneurship and innovation across the energy system is at the crux of delivering global climate goals and spurring new opportunities for growth. We must take advantage of the Fourth Industrial Revolution to bring about a step change in investments and accelerate the pace at which new technologies are brought to market,” says Cheryl Martin, Managing Director and Head of the Global Centre for Innovation and Entrepreneurship, World Economic Forum.

The paper highlights a set of ideas that were identified to channel more investment into R&D and fast-track the road to commercialization, targeting regulatory frameworks and financial mechanisms. At the international level, the paper calls for a new global fund modelled on successful funds in other sectors to provide a secured and focused financing mechanism to tackle some of tomorrow’s most important energy technology challenges.

As well as increasing the energy sector’s contribution to the fight against climate change, the ideas set out in the paper also have the potential to generate significant employment opportunities and spur sustainable economic growth. The six ideas are in a nutshell:

Establish an independent international sustainable energy innovation accelerator fund to finance innovative energy technology projects, blending public and private sources of capital

Develop instruments for public-private co-investment at the national or regional level to support and finance deep-tech energy innovations, reduce risks and improve the effectiveness of available public and private funding; if properly designed, such instruments would not only stimulate more private money into breakthrough energy projects but also would significantly improve the success rate and impact of public RD&D grants

Mainstreaming energy innovation through strategic public procurement to use the power of public procurement to accelerate development and commercialization by providing first markets for innovative energy technologies and solutions

Create strong national institutions for energy innovation acting as a single voice for public support in energy innovation, bundling responsibilities as the main public funding authority, overlooking and steering the overall sustainable energy innovation process

Co-define energy technology roadmaps through public-private collaboration to align global policy and industrial innovation efforts and create a credible road to scale for technology areas of high potential currently advancing slowly

Super-transparency of government RD&D spending to improve the efficiency of the public R&D funding process and increase the transparency of opportunities and volume of public funding available for entrepreneurs and investors

“The opportunities that exist around energy innovation are incredibly exciting and demonstrate that the industry as a whole is focused on imminent change. However, the pace at which innovation occurs requires a deeper sense of collaboration from all of us as energy stewards to drive the agenda forward, including how we go about funding, access to technology, global energy policy, and research and development,” said Regina Mayor, Global Sector Head, Energy and Natural Resources, KPMG. “It is critical that the industry works to accelerate these discussions among industry players, government, entrepreneurs and investors around the world to address systemic barriers and fully develop and commercialize energy technologies that have the power to change the way we access energy in the future.”

One year since the start of their formal collaboration, the World Economic Forum and Mission Innovation continue to strengthen their partnership. In co-designed sessions at Mission Innovation’s third ministerial in Malmö, the collaboration is bringing together government ministers, industry CEOs and innovation pioneers to move to action on innovation challenges, discuss how to implement ideas, and set a precedent for the public-private partnerships that are required to accelerate sustainable energy innovation.

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The bp in Iraq’s Oil Industry: A Comeback to The Historical Role?

Shahriar Sheikhlar

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The official history of the Iraq’s oil began when a well at Baba Gurgur just north of Kirkuk was struck in the early hours of 14 October 1927 by the Turkish Petroleum Company (TPC) however the early negotiations for an oil concession was started with Ottoman Sultan from the late 19th century.

Indeed, the significant proved reserves of crude oil during the steps of new government installation in the Iraq was enough appealing for giant oil companies to own the shares of TPC. In 1928 the composition of TPC was rearranged through a formal agreement and TPC shareholders were formed by Anglo – Persian Company(the forerunner of the British Petroleum), Royal Dutch-Shell, Compagnie Française des Pétroles (which was named later the Total) and NEDC, an American consortium included Standard Oil of New Jersey (The prior name of Exxon which merged to Mobil and formed Exxon Mobil Company in 1999), Standard Oil Company of New York, Gulf Oil, the Pan-American Petroleum and Transport Company, Atlantic Richfield Co and an Turkish American businessman Calouste Gulbenkian.

Meanwhile by the new structure of TPC shareholders, it was renamed the Iraq Petroleum Company (IPC) and its operational territory was expanded to all the Red Line (except of Kuwait), though by establishing the Bahrain National Petroleum Company and later, the ARAMCO (Saudi Arabia) followed by last two U.S companies’ exit from the NEDC in 1948, the IPC was limited to the Iraq country and left the Iraq after nationalizing the country’s oil industry in 1972.

Of course the bp’s roll in IPC’s achievements was significantly different than another shareholders, not only because of Great Britain Government’s supports, but also by its great perseverance from 1928 until 1972 when Iraq’s oil industry was nationalized completely, the historical character of bp in the Iraqi minds.

bp’s comeback to the Iraq’s oil

Regarding to the high dependence of Iraq’s economy and its public budget on the oil’s income which is on the top of world countries’ level, the Iraqi government in the new era (after 2003) made plans to increase the oil production which was followed by inviting the IOCs’ return to the Iraq’s oil industry, after 40 years of divorce.

While the Iraq’s statement in 2007 declared sharp raises in its proven oil reserves up to 115 billion barrels, 26 international oil companies returned to the Iraq’s oil industry, including the Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch-Shell, Total and bp, the main shareholders of the IPC. Of course some another famous companies expressed their intend and won some projects, such as Chinese National Petroleum Company (CNPC), Malaysian Petronas, GAZPROM, Turkiye Petroleum Anonim Ortakligi (TPAO), Lukoil or Dragon oil.

Whereas the several International Oil Companies participated in the Iraq’s oil projects and development plans but the bp’s comeback was significantly different, especially when the bp’s strong involvement in the giant Rumaila field enhanced its production rapidly while the most of IOCs stay in studying phases yet.

Afterwards, the bp expressed it’s interest in developing the Kirkuk’s oilfields, where was the first entrance of bp to the Iraq’s oil industry. The negotiations with the Ministry of Oil of Iraq resulted in an agreement in 2013 which was a basis for making common operational team in February 2014 but bp’s operations in Kirkuk was stopped until the October 2017 when the Kirkuk was handed over to the Iraqi federal government.

The preliminary Kirkuk’s production target of 750,000 bpd which it’s not only seemed far to be quickly achieved, but also it’s predictable to be increased up to 1,500,000 bpd until 2021.

Meanwhile, if the bp could has the chance to participate in the development of the big Majnoon oilfield, its historical synergy in the Iraq’s oil industry could be revived again. While the bp would be involved in the fields containing 40% of Iraqi Federal reserves, it will influence on producing more than half of Iraqi federal’s oil production.

Despite the bp’s concern for strong participation in the Iraq’s oil industry, the most of IPC shareholders pulled out or limited their activities in the Iraq’s projects such as ExxonMobile which sold the most of its share in the big field of West Qurna#1 or Royal Dutch-shell which left the critical field of Majnoon. Meanwhile, the Total’s participation in the Iraq’s oil industry limited to the Halfaya field by just 18.75%. In the same approach, some another international oil companies limited their actives or shares in the Iraq’s oil projects, such as the Petronas who left the Majnoon recently or Sonangol which is going to resume it’s operation in Qayara and Najma fields that were stopped from 2015.

The next months when the Iraqi government would make decision about the service companies in the Manoomn oilfield, the perspective of bp in Iraq’s oil industry could be clarified whether it will comeback to the historical rail or continuously run in the limited situation.

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Businesses Taking Lead in Climate Response

MD Staff

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Spurred by consumer demand for eco-friendly practices, many businesses across the U.S. are moving aggressively to reduce their carbon footprint, including a major embrace of renewable energy and alternative-fueled vehicles, according to Deloitte’s “Resources 2018 Study – Businesses Drive, Households Strive” released today.

The annual survey shows that businesses see addressing climate change as key to long-term industry resilience. Sustainability seems no longer optional – it has become important to fostering business growth and satisfying a wide range of stakeholders, including customers, suppliers, partners, employees and investors.

Although 86 percent of residential consumers believe government should be active in setting a vision and path for energy strategy, it is the private sector that is advancing the cause to manage resources for cleaner, more resilient, secure and affordable energy supplies.

“Businesses are not waiting for government to act on addressing climate change. They have picked up the gauntlet,” said Marlene Motyka, Deloitte U.S. and global renewable energy leader and principal, Deloitte Transactions and Business Analytics LLP. “They are now driven to double down on their energy management efforts as they view their long-term viability through the climate lens.”

Key findings

  • Of the 87 percent of businesses familiar with the U.S. pulling out of the Paris climate agreement, 4 in 10 are reviewing or changing their energy management policies in response, with 75 percent of those increasing their commitment and investment in energy management.
  • About 70 percent of customers are demanding companies procure a certain percentage of electricity from renewable sources.
  • The number of companies with carbon footprint goals has jumped to 61 percent in 2018, from just over half the year before.
  • Sixty-eight percent of residential consumers say they are concerned about climate change and their personal carbon footprints, outpacing the previous high of 65 percent in 2016.
  • Nearly three-fourths (74 percent) of residential consumers stated that climate change is caused by human action, up six percentage points from 2017.

Renewables rated key to energy independence, millennials tip the scale

More than three-fourths (76 percent) of survey respondents cited renewables as key for achieving energy independence, jumping five percentage points from 2017. This seems to represent a change in mindset with many respondents now seeing a connection that was once widely thought to be implausible.

In addition, many millennials – greener and “techier” than other generations – see renewables as the answer to their environmental concerns. In fact, 64 percent rank utilizing clean energy sources among their top three most important energy-related issues. Also, they are more likely to adopt new solutions, such as electric vehicles, home automation systems and time-of-use rates.

Businesses making EVs an easy choice

Many businesses not only say reducing their electricity consumption is important to staying competitive but they also are helping to transform the transportation sector as more consumers and employees eye electric vehicles and hybrids as a prime pick for their next vehicle.

Business respondents expect gasoline or diesel vehicles will make up less than half (49 percent) of their transportation fleets by 2020. If so, it would mark the first-time vehicles powered by alternative fuels will constitute a majority of corporate fleets. In fact, businesses are accelerating their efforts to support employees who drive electric vehicles, with well over half (56 percent), offering EV charging stations. Fifty-two percent of these businesses own the charging stations themselves, while 41 percent belong to the building owner.

Businesses Turn to Self-Generation for Greater Control Over Energy

On-site generation also is on the rise as distributed resources are increasingly viewed as being realistic and cost-effective, and as businesses desire greater control over their energy supplies in terms of price, quality and reliability. Fifty-nine percent of businesses now generate some portion of their electricity supply on-site, and of those businesses, 13 percent are using renewables, 13 percent use on-site co-generation and 10 percent are using on-site battery storage.

Nearly half of business respondents are working to procure more electricity from renewable sources, and nearly two-thirds (61 percent) said combining battery storage with renewable sources would motivate them to do more. Additionally, businesses are responding to increased power outages by purchasing backup generators, adding battery storage units, and expanding the amount of electricity they self-generate.

Smart home apps not catching on, cyber concerns cooling interest

Despite support for more innovative energy savings, only 20 percent of respondents have automated home functions, such as smart thermostats. In fact, amid growing reports of hacked home devices, 21 percent of respondents cited privacy and security concerns as a barrier to upgrading their thermostats, compared to 15 percent last year. In addition, penetration of smart thermostats and automation systems remains very low with only 4 percent using a home automation system and just 8 percent utilizing a programmable thermostat.

A majority of both businesses and residential consumers want environmentally responsible, reliable assets, preferably close by, that they can control to optimize reliability, flexibility and cost. However, this year’s survey seems to emphasize that privacy and security concerns should be addressed by providers soon to maintain the momentum for a clean secure energy future.

“Utilities are being challenged to get to know their customers better, and the industry has a long way to go,” said Andrew Slaughter, executive director, Deloitte Center for Energy Solutions, Deloitte Services LP. “What appears clear is that the electric utility sector’s transformation will likely be one of decentralization, digitalization, and decarbonization driven by business and residential consumer demand for a cleaner, more resilient, secure and affordable energy supply.”

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