Connect with us

South Asia

President Trump: The US Tie-binding Strategy for South-Central Asia is at Stake

Ajmal Sohail

Published

on

The US is concentrating on the Middle East, Eastern Europe, the Baltic States and the Scandinavia region to segregate Russia. The US is, also, focusing on Asia-Pacific to contain China. America, and Its NATO allies, gave an end to the combat operations in Afghanistan and pulled back their combat forces in order to protect the Middle East Europe and South China Sea. This implies that America is unable to simultaneously wage war on a number of fronts.

Perhaps this is because of a military personnel deficit or lack of funding. With such an unpopular decision, the US lost its land-superiority and air-supremacy in south-central Asia, especially in Afghanistan, which it enjoyed for more than a decade. According to some intelligence sources, a few months ago a Russian made helicopter packed with Federal Security Committee (FSB), Federal Bodyguard Service (FSO), Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of Russia and Inter-Intelligence Service (ISI), Military Intelligence (MI), and Intelligence Bureau (IB) officials of Pakistan traveled from Pakistan to Russia thru Afghanistan and crashed in Taliban-controlled Logar Province of Afghanistan.

Taliban later handed over the occupants, to Pakistan when this secret assignment became public. The Pakistan statement said that they wanted to repair the helicopter in Russia.

The information indicates the Russian and Pakistani intelligence officials discussed the possible intelligence and military cooperation between Pakistan and Russia to curb US forward policy in the region thru their proxies in the region, especially in Afghanistan. Moreover, due to lack of US air supremacy in Afghanistan, Russia, Iran and Pakistan continue to supply Taliban to disrupt US strategy.

Before the US decided to reduce their footprint in the region, they developed Plan B. Plan B formulated a strategy to further control the region and establish a counter balance against China. This plan was developed to limit dependency of its allies, India and others, on Iranian energy sectors. The US invented a Tie-binding strategy, or regional inter-dependency plan. With such an arrangement, the US desire was to attach Central Asia with South Asia and Europe via Afghanistan.

To fulfill its wish, America has launched number of projects:

1. The gas pipeline project named TAPI (Turkmenistan , Afghanistan, Pakistan and India), to bring Turkmen gas thru Afghanistan to India and

2. The electricity project called CASA 1000, to pass electricity from Central Asia to South Asia and

3. The New Silk Road project to sustain free flow of goods in the region and connect the region with Europe.

American strategists believed that with such a policy they could fasten the regions (Central-Asia and South-Asia) with geo-economic and geo-strategic projects and further isolate Iran, China and possibly Russia. They assumed that the regional countries, due to the energy needs and economic priorities, would leave aside their geo-political objectives and divergences to build full cooperation. For these reasons the US abandoned Afghan villages, districts and provinces. Then, the US, NATO and regional allies revolutionized the strategy to control only transit roads, GT roads and major cities. To accomplish this goal they have supported the Afghan National Army to secure areas where TAPI, CASA 1000 and New Silk Road traverse.

As soon as Iran and Russia learned that they were excluded from the major regional projects they increased their focus to cause provocations. The Iranian and Russian intelligence organizations have been assembling leaders of Taliban. As an example, “A few month ago Mullah Mansur (leader of Taliban), after visiting Iran, on his way back to Pakistan, was hunted by US drone.” Generally, from time to time, Mansur would pass along plans to take over the major cities and transit roads and GT roads to disrupt US strategy and curtail US geopolitical objectives in the region.

According to some sources at STRATFOR, a US-based private intelligence agency, Taliban have changed their tactics. In the earlier periods they were focusing on remote areas. But after gathering with Russian and Iranian intelligence networks the Taliban have launched a massive offensive mission under the title of Umari Operation. Umar is one of the will-known disciples of Prophet Muhammad. The Taliban instigated aggressive attacks on major cities and transit roads this year. They took over Kundoz province in the north to cut-off Kabul with northern Afghanistan. In the mean time, they attacked Helmand province to bring to a halt Hilmand with Kandahar province.

At the same time, they started operations in Maidan-Wardak and Ghazni Provinces to bring to an end to Kabul rule by means of Southern Afghanistan. Then they launched missions in Laghman Province to cut off Kabul with eastern Afghanistan. Also, they have launched major assaults in Logar Province to disconnect Kabul with North-eastern Afghanistan. The overall plan is to round up Kabul to over-throw the Afghan Government and interrupt the US on-going plan.

Thus it is incumbent on the new administration of America (Donald Trump administration) to rejuvenate its regional forward policy for South-Central Asian before we see a complete loss of over 15 years of support. The current adversaries to the US, NATO and Supporting Allies have a growing sense of success. Also, they have no intention of freely cooperating with the larger plan of the US, NATO and Supporting Allies and will do everything possible to disrupt and destroy all plans. If the current situation described above does not change through strong US leadership the Afghan people will suffer greatly. The Afghan people will never progress. The Afghan families will be thrown in to a destructive tailspin. The Afghan government evolution will never progress to a leadership role in the region as the centerpiece of cooperation, trade, diplomacy and commerce.

If America will not invigorate its strategy for the region, the Afghan built/US supported Kabul regime will collapse and the US Tie-binding strategy would be really at risk, as it seems the US has no Plan C.

Ajmal Sohail is Co-founder and Co-president of Counter Narco-terrorism Alliance Germany and he is National Security and counter terrorism analyst. He is active member of Christian Democratic Union (CDU)as well.

Continue Reading
Comments

South Asia

How the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal affects India

Published

on

Authors: Tridivesh Singh Maini & Sandeep Sachdeva*

While India was guarded in it’s response to the withdrawal of US from the Iran Nuclear Deal, it surely realizes the implications of the US withdrawal. Iran is India’s third largest source of crude oil (after Iraq and Saudi Arabia) . Between April 2017 and January 2018, New Delhi imported well over 18 million tonnes of crude oil.

New Delhi has also invested in the development of the Chabahar Port Project, which will provide India, access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. This project is extremely important for India, since it will help in bypassing Pakistan, which has continuously kept India out of the Afghanistan Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA). During Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi’s Iran visit in May 2016, India had signed an agreement, committing 500 Million USD for the development of Chabahar. During Modi’s visit,  a trilateral transport and transit partnership was also signed between India, Afghanistan and Iran.

In February 2018, during Iranian President Rouhani’s visit  to India, a lease agreement was signed between India and Iran. The lease agreement gave operational control of Phase 1 of Chabahar Port (Shahid Beheshti port) to India. The Modi, Hassan Rouhani Joint statement mentioned the need for making Chabahar part of INSTC project and PM Modi further emphasised that “We will support the construction of the Chabahar-Zahedan rail link, so that Chabahar gateway’s potential could be fully utilised.”

Here it would be pertinent to point out, that to enhance connectivity with Afghanistan, India has also set up an India Afghan Air Corridor, two flights are currently operational; one connecting Mumbai with Kabul, and another which connects Delhi with Kabul.

Indian hopes

For the time being, New Delhi has rested its hopes on the fact, that European countries are trying to keep the deal intact, and US will also not impose sanctions on allies, including India, for engaging with Iran. Defence Secretary James Mattis in a Congressional hearing held by the Senate Armed Services Committee, had categorically stated,  that the US should be careful with regard to imposing sanctions against allies, under Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

Mattis said, that allies like India should be provided a national security waiver, against imposition of sanctions for the purchase of S-400 air defence missile system from Russia.

A number of US Congressmen and Senators too have echoed Mattis’ views saying that India is valuable ally and should be exempted from sanctions

What India needs to be cautious about

While India does have time to react to the sanctions re-imposed, and the fact that European countries are keen to keep the deal alive are important. Recent statements by the US National Security Advisor, John Bolton saying that Europe will not be immune from sanctions, and would ultimately fall in line needs to be closely watched.

Said Bolton in an interview with ABC’sThis Week:“Europeans are going to face the effective US sanctions — already are, really — because much of what they would like to sell to Iran involves US technology, for which the licenses will not be available.”

Bolton also stated, that these countries will ultimately realise that it is in their interest to go along with the US.

Earlier US Ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell advised Germany to re-consider business ties with Iran:‘German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately”.

New Delhi needs to strike a balancing act between Iran and US, but it also needs to have a clear plan of action to deal with US sanctions against Iran. In the past few years, India has successfully managed to balance relations between Iran and US, and Iran and Israel. Given the recent sanctions and the hawkish approach of the Trump Administration, it may be tough.

China factor

In the meanwhile, New Delhi would be well advised to follow closely China’s reaction to the withdrawal of US from JCPOA. Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited three important countries Russia, China and Europe to save the JCPOA. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said “it was hard-earned  deal, and China will take an objective, fair and responsible attitude, keep communication and cooperation with all parties concerned, and continue to work to maintain the deal”.

The China factor doesn’t end here for India. Off late, ties between India and China have witnessed an improvement, during PM Modi’s recent China visit, it was decided. that both countries will undertake a joint project in Afghanistan. In recent months, there seem to be some indicators of lowering of tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad as well.  Could, Beijing get New Delhi and Islamabad to discuss the issue of  transit trade to Afghanistan?  An opinion piece, ‘Pakistan’s military reaches out to India’, published in RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) discusses the willingness of Pakistan to discuss this issue, but India had turned down the offer in October 2017. Maybe New Delhi, could explore this option, and Beijing could support such an effort.

Conclusion

In conclusion, New Delhi will need to handle the current situation with great dexterity, while US is an important strategic partner, India has also got an opportunity to send an unequivocal message to Washington, that its own interests are paramount, and it will not blindly follow any one camp. In spite of all the challenges and upheavals likely to result from Trump’s decision, this also provides a golden opportunity for re-shaping the narrative within South Asia.

*Sandeep Sachdeva, Independent Foreign Policy Analyst

Continue Reading

South Asia

Ex-Pakistani Prime Minister puts Pakistani military and China on the spot

Dr. James M. Dorsey

Published

on

Ousted Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif kicked up a storm when he earlier this month seemingly admitted that Pakistan had supported militants who attacked multiple targets in Mumbai in 2008, killing 166 people.

Mr. Sharif’s admission, which he has since tried to walk back, put a finger on Pakistan’s controversial policy of selective support of militant groups at a sensitive time. Pakistan is gearing up for elections that would secure its third consecutive handover of civilian political power.

Mr. Sharif’s remarks, moreover, stirred up a hornet’s nest because Pakistan is likely to next month be put on a watch list by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global financial watchdog that monitors the funding of political violence and money laundering worldwide.

The remarks also put China in a difficult position. China has been pressuring Pakistan to crack down on militants, particularly in the troubled province of Balochistan, the crown jewel in its Belt and Road-related $50 billion plus infrastructure investment in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Yet, at the same time, China has at Pakistan’s behest prevented the United Nations Security Council from declaring Masood Azhar, believed to have been responsible for an attack in 2016 on India’s Pathankot Air Force Station, as a globally designated terrorist.

The militants, dressed in Indian military uniforms fought a 14-hour battle against Indian security forces that only ended when the last attacker was killed. Mr. Azhar was briefly detained after the attack and has since gone underground.

Mr. Sharif’s made his remarks as China was building up its military infrastructure in Pakistan. The build-up is occurring against the backdrop of Pakistan risking being involuntarily sucked into potential attempts to destabilize Iran if Saudi Arabia/and or the United States were to use Balochistan as a staging ground.

In line with a standard practice in Pakistan that has repeatedly seen groups that are outlawed resurrecting themselves under new names, Lashkar-e-Taibe (LeT), the banned group believed to be responsible for the Mumbai attacks, and Jamaat-ud-Dawa, widely believed to be an LeT front, are  rebranding under a new name and as a political party, Milli Muslim League, that would compete in the forthcoming election.

The League is headed by Hafez Saaed, a former LeT leader, who was last year released from house arrest despite having been declared a designated global terrorist by the Security Council and the US Treasury, which put a $10 billion bounty on his head. China vetoed Mr. Saeed’s designation by the UN prior to the Mumbai attacks.

Activists, even though the party was last month designated by the US Treasury, are likely to run as independents in the election if the government maintains its rejection of the party’s registration.

So are operatives of Ahl-e-Sunnat-Wal-Jamaat, a front for Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan, a banned, virulently anti-Shiite group that long enjoyed support from Saudi Arabia and operates multiple militant madrassas or religious seminaries in Balochistan that have witnessed an injection of funds from the kingdom in the last two years.

“Militant organisations are active. Call them non-state actors, should we allow them to cross the border and kill 150 people in Mumbai? Explain it to me. Why can’t we complete the trial? It’s absolutely unacceptable. This is exactly what we are struggling for. President Putin has said it. President Xi has said it. We could have already been at seven per cent growth (in GDP), but we are not,” Mr. Sharif said, referring to stalled Mumbai attacks-related trials in a Rawalpindi anti-terrorism court.

Taking Mr. Sharif’s comments a step further, prominent journalist and author Ahmed Rashid asserted that “the deep state of Pakistan is supporting the banned outfits as it has done in the past. This game should be stopped, and the government should show its commitment and sincerity in disarming these groups and not to allow them to enter into politics.”

Former Pakistani strongman General Pervez Musharraf, in an apparent manifestation of links between the circles close to the military and hardliners, said prior to the designation by the US announced that he was discussing an alliance with Mr. Saeed’s league.

Speaking on Pakistani television, Mr. Musharraf pronounced himself “the greatest supporter of LeT… Because I have always been in favour of action in Kashmir and I have always been in favour of pressuring the Indian army in Kashmir,” Mr. Musharraf said.

Pakistan’s military and intelligence service are believed to favour integration of militants into the political process as a way of reducing violence and militancy in a country in which religious ultra-conservatism and intolerance has been woven into the fabric of branches of the state and significant segments of society.

Critics charge that integration is likely to fail in Pakistan. “Incorporating radical Islamist movements into formal political systems may have some benefits in theory… But the structural limitations in some Muslim countries with prominent radical groups make it unlikely that these groups will adopt such reforms, at least not anytime soon… While Islamabad wants to combat jihadist insurgents in Pakistan, it also wants to maintain influence over groups that are engaged in India and Afghanistan,” said Kamran Bokhari, a well-known scholar of violent extremism.

Citing the example of a militant Egyptian group that formed a political party to participate in elections, Mr. Bokhari argued that “though such groups remain opposed to democracy in theory, they are willing to participate in electoral politics to enhance their influence over the state. Extremist groups thus become incorporated into existing institutions and try to push radical changes from within the system.”

Chinese ambiguity about Pakistani policy goes beyond shielding Mr. Azhar from being designated. A Chinese-Pakistani draft plan last year identified as risks to CPEC “Pakistani politics, such as competing parties, religion, tribes, terrorists, and Western intervention” as well as security. “The security situation is the worst in recent years,” the plan said.

Security has since improved substantially in significant parts of Pakistan. The question, however, is whether integration of militants into the political process would stabilize Pakistani politics in the absence of a concerted effort to counter mounting ultra-conservative religious fervour in the country. It may be too early to judge, but so far the answer has to be no.

Continue Reading

South Asia

Analyzing CPEC Summit 2018

Published

on

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project of China’s Belt and Road initiative, prioritized by both the Governments of China and Pakistan to build a China-Pakistan community of shared destinies. The strategic partnership under the CPEC envisages number of projects among which Energy Security, Infrastructural Development , Connectivity, Trade,  Industrial   Parks,   Agricultural Development , Poverty Alleviation and , Tourism are highly prioritized. Recently the CPEC summit 2018 was held in Karachi on April 23, 2018 to discuss the importance of CPEC and to analyze updates about the progress and development of this project. Perhaps this was the first such event of its kind in which   representative from all the provinces participated. The summit not only discussed the progress and development of the CPEC but deliberated upon the issue of regional connectivity as the key component of the CPEC. On recalling the last five years’ journey of CPEC up till now, one can infer that indeed CPEC is a chain of connectivity not only within Pakistan but across the region as well. The summit also concluded that Pakistan and China are planning to extend CPEC towards Afghanistan as CPEC is not only about economic growth, but also about community building.

Analyzing the outcome of this summit, one discovers that under CPEC, the country has completed two power projects in Sindh, while another is on its way towards completion. CPEC has resulted in the optimal utilization of two commercial ports and the opening of Keti Bunder. Along with this, the development of commercial ports is also in line with the CPEC plan. The project pledges provincial harmony and timely cooperation and facilitation in this regard.  As far as the electric power is concerned currently930 megawatts of wind energy is produced in Sindh alone for the national grid. Moreover a large chunk of electric power comes from those three Projects which are part of early-harvest program. In addition to this some 300MW is generated through wind power projects and would be part of the grid once the projects are completed in October 2018.

Following this progress rate CPEC is economically beneficial for all the provinces of Pakistan. KPK is contributing nearly 15pc of Pakistan’s natural gas output. In hydropower, KP has the potential of producing 30,000MW of energy. The two hydropower projects located at Chitral are also part of the CPEC framework.

Moreover another important aspect which was analyzed in this CPEC Summit 2018 is the idea of a separate ministry for logistic and transport so that this massive demand for the logistic and transport can be well managed.  Once this separate ministry is formed, the work will be done in the shortest possible time thus resulting in faster growth. Businessmen, stakeholders and industrialist also showed their interests in promoting business through CPEC.  Surely there is a need for joint ventures between local and Chinese companies to enhance Pakistan’s industrial base and productivity.

Eventually once the CPEC project is completed Pakistan will become a hub for transshipment trade. Most of Pakistan’s posts- through which trade is being carried out, are complaint to Transports Internationaux Routiers (TIR) or International Road Transports. Therefore there is no issue of compliance or connectivity under TIR. It will be easier to import goods and products in other countries thus developing more options for Trade and investment through CPEC.

The initial Phase of CPEC projects of the early harvest program are completed. Now the second phase the long term plan of the CPEC has been started that focuses on industrial activity and agriculture which would be completed by 2025.  Currently work on the Long term Plan is under way, after that in order to take its final shape in 2030 CPEC would be completed and people to people contact will develop, thus resulting in shared trade communities.

Continue Reading

Latest

Newsdesk14 hours ago

China to Improve Inland Waterway Transport with World Bank Support

The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors approved a US$150 million loan today to improve the capacity and reliability of...

Russia15 hours ago

St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2018

The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2018, one of the annual international platforms that brings together political, industry and business...

New Social Compact16 hours ago

How Muslim Propagators Swindle the Western Civilization: Islam and Science Expropriation (D)

Muslims take high pride and boast about the critical contributions “Islamic Sciences” to civilization. It would require considerable space just...

Newsdesk17 hours ago

EU investment in gas interconnection between Bulgaria and Serbia to enhance energy security in the region

To boost the diversification of energy sources in the Western Balkan region, reduce dependency on one dominant supplier and increase...

Green Planet18 hours ago

Women leaders come together to fight climate change

Climate change affects everyone, but certain demographics and groups are at greater risk. One such demographic is women, who are...

Europe18 hours ago

Internally weak EU cannot be strong international player

Commenting on the EU capabilities to protect its interests against the US unilateralism, Italian political science professor, Dr. Pastori Gianluca...

Economy19 hours ago

Strong labour relations key to reducing inequality and meeting challenges of a changing world of work

Globalisation and rapid technological innovation have spurred unprecedented economic growth but not everyone has benefited. Unions and employers, together with...

Newsletter

Trending

Copyright © 2018 Modern Diplomacy