Who would have thought that Coca-Cola’s expulsion from Bolivia in 2012 would be the beginning of a historical demise of U. S. Foreign Policy influence not only in South America but also in Southern Caucasus and South East European regions as Washington’s staggering absence in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, Syrian War, Crimean – Ukrainian crisis and its diplomatic incident with the Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, last October.
President Obama’s ‘red line’ statement on Bashar Al Assad’s use of chemical weapons against his own people, and his withdrawal from such a public commitment, has encouraged the largest crisis since the wars of former Yugoslavia. Although the White House has supported Ukraine’s membership in the Eastern Partnership, an initiative led by Poland and Sweden, it is ignoring the fact that in 2014, Russia and P. R. China became the largest trade partners of Kiev, with almost US$13 billion in exports and US$ 19 billion in imports, a trade cooperation that contributes towards strengthening other sectors in the country and region. Meanwhile Italy is the sole and top export destination (US$2.66B) and Germany and Poland (US$9.03B, cumulative) are the top importers of Ukrainian goods.
On the other hand United States Secretary of State John Kerry created a diplomatic swirl by pretending that the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan “aren’t ready” to bring the Nagorno-Karabakh armed conflict to a lasting solution. Indeed Secretary Kerry has undertaken multiple trips to the world’s peripheral capitals to negotiate: the settlement of over two thousand members of Iranian mujahidin opposition group in Tirana – a capital city that is run by a prime minister who runs the largest drug cartels of Europe – visited the African continent four times and has never been able to squeeze a meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on his busy agenda. Interestingly enough, in May 21-22, 2016, as his airplane was refueling in Baku, Secretary Kerry had lost a rare opportunity to become familiar with the Nagorno-Karabakh and the atrocities committed by Armenian Armed Forces in Azerbaijani soil, by spending an additional time to meet with his counterpart Minister of Foreign Affairs Elmar Mammadyarov and President of Azerbaijan.
Even though Secretary Kerry’s comments were made on the context of international negotiations that took place on Iran’s nuclear program, there was no legitimate reason on his part to argue that Azerbaijan is not ready to bring a solution to the Armed Conflict upon its soil that has been instigated by Armenian Armed Forces for over two decades. Azerbaijani authorities have undertaken repeated official visits to Washington; meanwhile the US Chief Diplomat has been too busy to conduct an official visit in Baku and demonstrate, at least, his readiness to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh Armed Conflict. Such a visit would have enabled Secretary Kerry to experience that tensions are indeed there, it is not fair to state that ‘tensions aren’t there.’
The US Department of State has created an unexpected vacuum in the Caucasus region, Ukraine, South East Europe and South America. Such an attitude has rightfully prompted Russian and Iranian leadership in the global stage, not only in the Caucasus region but also in the Balkans and various countries in Latin America including Venezuela, Ecuador and Nicaragua. The situation of Nagorno-Karabakh must garner a special priority in the landscape of US Foreign Policy Interests, under the administration of President Donald Trump, for two reasons: Azerbaijan is an important U. S. and European Union trade partner, Baku is a reliable actor in the former Silk Road region with an admirable financial stability and economic growth; despite its national territory being occupied by Armenian Armed Forces, Azerbaijani government has made possible the development of a sophisticated energy sector that has enabled the country to eradicate extreme poverty (despite the sad conditions that make Heydar Aliyev’s nation, the world’s number one country in terms of the number of IDPs per capita). Secretary Kerry has intentionally left a blank check of showdown to Moscow while refraining together with his representative and U.S. Minsk Group Co-Chair Amb. James B. Warlick to participate actively and bring a solution to Nagorno-Karabakh armed conflict. Ambassador Warlick has failed to bring in the world’s attention the fact that Armenian Government has imposed an economic blockade against the Autonomous Republic of Nakhchivan (during the last twenty years), in addition to his feeble efforts as a Minsk Group Co-chair.
Washington continues to play the innocent when it comes to Azerbaijan’s lingering from a two decades’ long war of attrition. The United States must show a clear support to the freedom loving nations such as Azerbaijan, Georgia and others; its support for these countries will be more beneficial and strengthen peace and stability in the region instead of embracing consternation and letting other nations fill Washington’s void. Secretary Kerry owes a public apology to the people of Azerbaijan who are suffering due to the lack of leadership from across the Atlantic. Perhaps the State Department should take a look at Adidas, Ferrari and Porsche, international prestigious companies that are purchasing high quality leather from Paraguay, a country that has not been in the priorities’ radar screen of Washington’s Foreign Policy since the fall of General Alfredo Stroessner’s right wing dictatorship in 1989.
Armenia’s Role in South Caucasus Policy of Russia
The Caucasus has long been one of the most important regions in the world. Many states had the desire and plan to rule this region from time to time. For centuries Russia has a great influence in the Caucasus and the main reason for the importance of the Caucasus region for Russia is its geostrategic location on important trade routes. Because by passing through this region Russia can reach the Balkans, the Black Sea and the White Sea, the Persian Gulf, as well as the Indian Ocean. The other important reason is the Caucasus is a great source of raw materials for the Russian economy. North Caucasus regions, such as Chechnya, Dagestan and Tatarstan, cover almost half of Russia’s energy needs. Also, the Caucasus region has significant strategic importance in terms of the routes that aimed to bring the Caspian Sea resources to the West and controlling these routes.
After the dissolution of the USSR, relations between Russia and Armenia intensified since 1992. There are numerous agreements have been signed between Russia and Armenia in various fields. The most important agreement was signed in Moscow a Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance by Presidents Boris Yeltsin of Russia and Levon Ter-Petrosian of Armenia. The treaty also envisages consultations and mutual military support if either side is attacked or considers itself threatened by a third party. Despite Russian and Armenian officials denied this, it was one of Russia’s interference in the South Caucasus through Armenia. This agreement has made Russia’s presence stronger in the region. Russia has military bases in Armenia and the main purpose of these bases is to protect Russia’s interests and Armenia’s national security. After the recent crisis in Georgia and the withdrawal of Russian military bases, Armenia became a more important actor for Russia.
Russia has a significant impact on the processes in the region by using the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The conflict started with Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani lands and as a result of Russia’s efforts, a ceasefire was declared and negotiations started. The Kremlin supports the peaceful settlement of the conflict within the OSCE Minsk Group, as well as in bilateral meetings. Consequently, Russia provides political and military support to Armenia as an important ally in the region, as well as prevents Azerbaijan moving away from it by being as a guarantor of the peaceful settlement of the conflict. Time to time Russia uses this conflict to make political pressure on both countries which makes it another most important factor for Russia. Georgia’s attack on North Ossetia and later on Russian intervention in Georgia and recognition of North Ossetia and Abkhazia, have led to thinking whether there will be a change in the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Also, Russian intervention in Georgia has shown that the problems in the CIS region cannot be solved without Russia. Therefore, it is possible to say that resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute is highly dependent on Russian presence. However, the growing interest of the West in this region and proposing new solutions to the conflict, make Azerbaijan and Armenia use this dispute card against Russia. The possibility of Western-South Caucasus rapprochement in the future may lead to not only a political, but even a serious economic impact on Russia. Russia’s economy is heavily dependent on energy resources and the European energy market is the most important, profitable, and stable market for Russia. At the same time, the EU tries to diversify its energy routes and to reduce its dependency on Russian energy exports. The South Caucasus, especially the Caspian region has rich oil and gas sources. Hence, in the light of the Western-Caucasus relations, the role of Azerbaijan becomes more significant and strategic. In addition, strengthening and developing relations between Armenia and the EU is important in terms of ensuring the security of supply. Such a significant reduction of the EU’s dependence on Russia will have a great impact on Russia’s economy. Considering the fact that there are numerous sanctions on Russia, the weakening of the Russian economy may hamper its regional power. Even more likely, this may lead to domestic riots in Russia, and Russia may face the threat of a division of the country.
The Kremlin and Moscow have a special control over the region to prevent this scenario and creates barriers to the South Caucasian countries’ integration into the European Union. For instance, abandoning the Nabucco project, Russia’s military intervention in Georgia, and being a shareholder in projects in this region (excluding TAP and TANAP) are some examples of these barriers.
Diasporas also play an important role in Russia’s Caucasus policy. They are most influential tools in key areas of government and are closely involved in political activities. Moreover, the existence of many Russian citizens in Armenia, the wider use of Russian language in the country, and the broadcasting of Russian radio and television channels are the core elements of Russian presence in Armenia. Some Russians living in Armenia also have the opportunity to participate actively political and cultural relations due to their Armenian language knowledge.
After the collapse of the USSR, Armenia became Russia’s main ally in the South Caucasus. Integration of Georgia into West, conflicts and problems with Turkey and Azerbaijan, threats to national security urge Armenia to be closer to Russia. At the same time, large-scale projects implemented by Azerbaijan and Georgia with Turkey and Western countries, integration into the Western markets, and problems with Armenia hinder Armenia’s regional, political and economic development. To ensure this development, Armenia sees Russia as its biggest ally and closely cooperates with Russia.
The basis for the national security of Armenia relies on military cooperation between Russia and Armenia, however, the dependence on Russia in the economic sphere and the fact that all the strategic enterprises are controlled by the Russians is contrary to Armenia’s interests. Therefore, Armenia is in search for ways to integrate into the West without undermining its relations with Russia. However, Armenia’s political and economic dependence on Russia and tensions with Azerbaijan and Turkey make difficult to integrate into the West. in order to get rid of isolation, it is important for Armenia to step back in disputes with Turkey and Azerbaijan and mitigate relations.
In the near future, it is impossible for Armenia to completely break the dependency on Russia and integrate into the EU and the West. The grounds for this integration, which depend on Russia’s foreign policy strategies, have not yet been established. Today, the Armenian authorities understand that it is impossible for Armenia without Russia to exist in these conditions. While the integration into the West is on the agenda, the isolation of Armenia in the region prevents the achievement of political and economic prosperity. Russia’s active involvement in the region is important for Armenia, both for internal and external stability. Armenia’s integration to the West will continue in the frame of Russia’s interests, but from now on the Armenian government will pursue a more discreet policy towards Russia. Russia, on the other hand, can take two actions; to take a step which can lead to the end of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Armenia’s defeat, or to control Armenia without military intervention by making some concessions to current or future authorities. The first option is dangerous for Russia in terms of losing Armenia and reputation in South Caucasus, however, in the second variant, Russia can maintain its influence in the region by ensuring its long-term interests.
Latvians will choose their future
The general elections in Latvia will take place on October 6, 2018. On Saturday Latvians will choose their future. Though it sounds very pathetic, future of the country really depends on the results of these elections.
In an interview with Latvian information agency LETA, Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics, commenting the atmosphere during this pre-election period, said that a serious battle of people’s minds and hearts is going on right now.
And this is true. But this fight is too cruel. Just this pre-election period shows all things bad as they are. The “truth” about corruption on high banking and political levels all of a sudden has been poured out on population. “Latvia’s central bank chief has been charged with bribery. A lawyer liquidating the bank that was accused of bribing him was killed in a hail of machine-gun fire. One of the country’s biggest lenders was shut down after the U.S. levied allegations of money laundering and violations of sanctions on North Korea. What’s going on in Latvia? “ ask the authors of article “Where Latvia’s Financial Corruption Scandal May Lead” published in Bloomberg on September 27.
Situation in small Latvia reminds gangster times in the United States, when criminals held people in awe. The difference is only in the fact that American gangsters were not high ranking officials. Gangsters’ activity was officially considered criminal. On the contrary, Latvian case demonstrates activity of corrupted authorities, who influence the whole country, all 2 milllion people.
Ilmars Rimsevics, who’s been in charge of Latvia’s central bank as governor or deputy since 1992, is accused of soliciting a bribe from Trasta Kommercbanka AS, a small lender that was shut in 2016 after being implicated in a $20 billion money-laundering scheme. Specifically, he’s accused of receiving 250,000 euros five years ago.
It is difficult to imagine, that he got a bribe once, ruling the bank for so many years. Nobody saw his misconduct, nobody knew about it. Nonsense!
Now it is a question of trust to all top officials in Latvia.
For example, about 1 percent of all U.S. dollars moving around the world in 2015 were going through Latvia, according to Daniel Glaser, then a top official in the U.S. Department of the Treasury. It means that Latvia had a chance to become the second Switzerland at least.
But Latvians did not even feel the benefits. They tried to survive in 2015 and they continue to survive in 2018. Nothing has changed. Rich people have become richer and poor have become poorer. That is Latvian Reality.
The other news stroke Latvians this week. Prime Minister Maris Kucinskis confirmed that EUR 2 million more could be allotted for national defense.
He said with pride that “thanks to the increasing budget revenues, the funds will not have to be taken away from other national economy sectors.”
A question arises: why should these additional revenues go to defense and not to other national economy sectors? Is it the sphere that needs money most of all?
Corrupted political system decides for people where their money should go and for what purposes. It is well known that it is very difficult to track money spending in military sphere because this sector of economy is not transparent to the society due to security measures.
The only thing Latvians can do under such circumstances – to choose the right politicians to rule the country and they are surely should not be the same corrupted officials.
Lithuania violates the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
DELFI, which is the major Internet portal in the Baltic States providing daily news, stated on September, 10 that the number of emigrants from Lithuania exceeds that of immigrants by 1,000 in August. Shocking statistics shows that the country has registered a negative migration balance. Some 4,382 people left Lithuania in August. Thus, Lithuanians are leaving the country despite authorities’ claims on economic growth, stability and favorable perspectives.
On the one hand, according to “Lithuanian economy review – 2017”, the GDP growth in Lithuania accelerated. In 2017, as compared to the previous year, Lithuania`s GDP increased by 3.8%. On the other hand, this fact contravenes the increasing number of emigrants.
What makes people change their life and say “Good bye” to their homes? This is a rhetorical question. The answer lies on the surface.
Lithuanians do not satisfy with their standards of living. For example, survey of public opinion and market research company “Baltijos tyrimai” reveals that Lithuanians still haven’t domesticated the Euro. The pool conducted in July shows that more than 46,3% of Lithuanians blame the European currency in lowering their life standards. In other words they do not agree with the authorities’ decision to adopt the euro.
People compare their life with the other European countries and it is not in favor of Lithuania. The words and promises are not fulfilled, corruption flourishes. Thus, Freedom House document “FREEDOM IN THE WORLD 2018” reports that “the major problem for Lithuania’s democracy – corruption – continued to dominate the public sphere, as a series of scandals plagued members of the Seimas (parliament) and public institutions. Even Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė on Monday called on lawmakers not to waste their time on squabbling.
Officials, who today name themselves democrats, did not manage to get rid of Soviet thinking and way of behavior. When they get political power they forget about their duties. Permanent political scandals in small country led to the fact that people stopped believing authorities. And authorities’ activity is seemed to be suspicious in all spheres of life.
Thus, Lithuanians are wary of a new agreement on the country’s defense policy for the next decade signed by Lithuania’s parliamentary parties on Monday. The document calls for joint efforts to resist “irresponsible speculation that sets defense funding in opposition to other sensitive areas”. It means that Lithuanians do not have the right to decide to what area allocate budget money though they pay taxes. They do not have the right to speak on this topic and express their opinions if they contradict the official point of view. The parliament members forget the basic human rights. Article 19 of Universal Declaration of Human Rights of the United Nations states that ”everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.”
An ordinary person cannot solve the puzzle why television and Government controlled media describe his country just another way he sees it. Freedom House states also that “Regional economic disparities remain acute. The minimum wage remains one of the lowest within the EU, and the share of the population at risk of poverty and social exclusion is a little over 30 percent.
This discrepancy forces Lithuanians to seek better life abroad, usually in Old Europe. More than 20 years of expectation is too much. Life is too short to waste it to sit around waiting for changes.
The Islamic State’s reviving scheme
Despite the fact that ISIS lost 98 percent of its controlled territory, it is aiming for a reforming and coming...
Armenia’s Role in South Caucasus Policy of Russia
The Caucasus has long been one of the most important regions in the world. Many states had the desire and...
Turkey plays Khashoggi crisis to its geopolitical advantage
With Turkish investigators asserting that they have found further evidence that Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed when he visited...
The issue of intelligence between the United States and China
The economic and intelligence tension between the United States and China is currently at its peak since the end of...
‘America First’ vs. Global Financial Stability
The recently concluded annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank group, held in Indonesia last weekend, has highlighted a...
Is Jamal Khashoggi real a dissident journalist?
Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi allegedly disappeared from Saudi Arabia’s consulate in Istanbul on 2 October 2018. According to the US...
Does the Latest IPCC Report Offer Hope For Earth
Hurricanes and storms on both sides of the Atlantic appeared to encore the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change. It had...
Intelligence2 days ago
Why China will win the Artificial Intelligence Race
South Asia2 days ago
The “Neo-Cold War” in the Indian Ocean Region
Intelligence3 days ago
Non-State Actors in Today’s Information Wars
Energy2 days ago
Italy’s and EU’s natural gas imports from the United States
Americas2 days ago
Trump: The Symbol of America’s Isolation in the World
Intelligence2 days ago
US Conducting Biological Experiments Near Russia’s Borders
Newsdesk2 days ago
Eurasian Research on Modern China-Eurasia Conference
Central Asia2 days ago
Kazakh court case tests Chinese power