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Pipelines or Pipe Dreams? Turkey’s Role in Future European Energy Policy

Nargiz Hajiyeva

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[yt_dropcap type=”square” font=”” size=”14″ color=”#000″ background=”#fff” ] T [/yt_dropcap] urkey demonstrates obvious and unique geostrategic significance for the Euro-Atlantic community and as an influential player at the center of Western attention. After the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, the EU brought Turkey in as a major energy conduit for the international stage, increasing its significance and role in the energy sector.

Although Turkey has a lack of energy reserves itself, it is a good transit state and can bring benefit to both itself and the EU through the use of alternative pipelines in different regions. Like Russia, Turkey has both problematic and good relations with the European Union, but unlike Russia it wants to be the part of Euro-Atlantic Security Community.

Although Turkey has negligible proven oil and gas deposits, it strives to gain more access to diversified energy resources in order to meet its domestic economic demands. Therefore, Turkey has taken some geostrategic steps regarding how it can reduce energy vulnerability and ensure secure and diversified supplies. According to the 2010-2014 Strategic Plan by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkey has several major challenges regarding how it can preserve energy security. Turkey’s dependency on foreign investors in the energy field accounts for 74%. Its energy demands are expected to increase up to 4 % annually until 2020. Therefore it must search for secure and reliable cooperation in order to cope with such problems, while being able to anticipate unexpected dilemmas like tanker accidents in the Turkish Straits, which are huge threats to human security and cause environmental degradation. Thus, Turkey’s interests are multi-layered in terms of both domestic and foreign policy issues.

It is apparent that the diversification of supplies and source countries must be one of the main goals of Turkey. It must strive to get traditional energy resources at affordable prices while engineering a successful transition to alternative energy sources so as to reduce its already intolerable dependence on fossil fuels coming from foreign markets. In October 2016, the 23rd Anniversary ceremony of the World Energy Congress was hosted by Turkey. This brought the future significance of energy security in the immediate region to the attention of political and economic leaders all around the world. The main Congress goal, seeking options for delivering sustainable energy systems on national, regional, and global levels, was constantly emphasized.

With the continuously unsteady geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf, the EU launched the Southern dimension of the ENP program, which mainly focused on strengthening relations not only with the Middle East but also with North African countries. The Barcelona process, as it was called, mainly related to these countries taking new actions and steps to establish closer relations. But the EU needs to realize there is no direct entrance to the Middle East or North Africa without the involvement of Turkey. Turkey should always see itself as the main buffer zone or bridge for the EU. The emergence of mass havoc in Syria, Lebanon, Sudan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and other MENA countries due to intrastate crisis puts Turkey in an even more relevant geostrategic position. From this interpretation it can be said that Turkey has a pivotal role in future European energy policy in that it has an open connection to not only greater Caspian hydrocarbon reserves but also energy resources in the Middle East. Furthermore, Turkey can assist Europe to diversify its gas supplies from the Middle East and North Africa. In essence, Turkey should be proactively striving to make itself seen as the primary and exclusive energy hub/bridge for all of Europe.

It is expected that in the coming decades almost 60-70% of European oil and natural gas needs will be provided by third countries which are not members of the EU. The main problem the EU faces currently is the security of its supplies and the lack of diversity in its suppliers, especially an overdependence on Russia. The EU needs new energy counterparts that will offer flexible long-term contracts to European countries. The greater Caspian region could enhance the supply of oil and natural gas to Europe if the EU was more assertive in aligning with Turkey. It has proposed four different gas pipeline projects via routes that would help the EU with its diversification problem and meet its increasing energy needs. By taking into account these possible pipeline projects gas transport to Europe via Turkey may account for 43 Bcm per year, at 6.5% of European gas imports, up to 2030. Of course, this will only occur with the full functioning of the Turkey-Greece-Italy interconnections with 12 Bcm annual capacity of gas supply and the Nabucco Pipeline project constituting 31 Bcm annual capacity. Thus, it is anticipated that the role of Turkey in European energy security will become more pivotal. In spite of some ups and down between the EU and Turkey, especially recently, the EU still has interests in strengthening the Turkish stance as a major energy transit country by joining different energy-related projects, namely Trans-European Energy Networks.

In conclusion, in spite of different political challenges within the international system, the EU understands its increasing energy demands and main concerns can potentially be addressed by better engaging Turkey as a major energy hub and as a reliable partner, all to the benefit of the Middle East and North Africa. The EU must soften its dependency on Russian gas, perhaps with involvement in different gas pipeline projects with other non-member states, especially Caspian-basin countries, with Turkey as its major broker. Despite the current unstable economic and political climate in Turkey, its increasing role as a regional player is undeniable not only for the West but also for greater Asian countries. Turkey is eager to be the dominant energy hub in the region, but the effort to reach that goal depends on more than just Turkey. If a new era of EU engagement cannot take place soon, then Turkey might not be the “good” transit state it so desperately wishes to be. In fact, without these positive relations it might be characterized as a “bad” transit state soon enough due to its own multiple political challenges and increasing insecurity in-country. If that remains constant then Turkey’s pipelines are going to be nothing but pipe dreams.

Ms. Nargiz Hajiyeva is an independent researcher from Azerbaijan. She is an honored graduate student of Vytautas Magnus University and Institute D'etudes de Politique de Grenoble, Sciences PO. She got a Bachelor degree with the distinction diploma at Baku State University from International Relations and Diplomacy programme. Her main research fields concern on international security and foreign policy issues, energy security, cultural and political history, global political economy and international public law. She worked as an independent researcher at Corvinus University of Budapest, Cold War History Research Center. She is a successful participator of International Student Essay Contest, Stimson Institute, titled “how to prevent the proliferation of the world's most dangerous weapons”, held by Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School and an honored alumnus of European Academy of Diplomacy in Warsaw Poland. Between 2014 and 2015, she worked as a Chief Adviser and First Responsible Chairman in International and Legal Affairs at the Executive Power of Ganja. At that time, she was defined to the position of Chief Economist at the Heydar Aliyev Center. In 2017, Ms. Hajiyeva has worked as an independent diplomatic researcher at International Relations Institute of Prague under the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the Czech Republic. Currently, she is pursuing her doctoral studies in Political Sciences and International Relations programme in Istanbul, Turkey.

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Energy

Solar powering sustainable development in Asia and the Pacific

Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana

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The way energy is produced, distributed and used causes environmental damage – most visibly air pollution – that in turn harms people’s health. It is also one of the major drivers of climate change. Recognising this, countries are urgently looking to shift to more sustainable energy, but the transition has so far been slow. Put simply, our future depends on our ability to decarbonize our economies by the end of the century. This was recognised by the Paris climate agreement in 2015 and is central to the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7) sets countries the twin challenge of meeting new benchmarks in renewable energy and energy efficiency, while ensuring universal access to modern energy.

In Asia and the Pacific, progress towards SDG 7 needs to be accelerated. While 99 percent of the population is expected to have access to electricity by 2030, access to clean cooking fuels will reach only 70 percent of our region’s population, leaving far too many people exposed to the deadly impacts of indoor air pollution. Energy intensity – a measure of our economies’ energy efficiency – is set to decrease but will fall short of 2030 Agenda targets if no further action is taken. At the same time, the share of renewable energy in total energy consumption is only expected to reach 14 percent, well under the 22 percent share required.
Solar energy has a major part to play in closing these gaps. It is an opportunity we must seize for low carbon development, energy security and poverty alleviation. Because solar power can bring clean, emissions-free and evenly distributed energy. This is particularly relevant to Asia and the Pacific, where developing countries have abundant solar energy resources. Solar energy technology increasingly offers a cost-effective alternative to extending networks to outlying and often challenging geographical locations. A potential which has been captured by the Indian leadership’s ambition for “one world, one sun, one grid”.

Governments, the private sector and investors are now thinking over the horizon, planning for a more sustainable and low carbon future. The cost of renewable technologies, very much including solar power has dropped rapidly, bringing these solutions within reach. India now has the newest and cheapest solar technology of anywhere in the world. Mini-grids or standalone solar home systems can be deployed quickly and help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Due in part to unsustainable subsidies and in part to inertia, coal fired electricity is set to continue to grow in the short to medium term, but wind and solar must play a much more substantial role sooner rather than later for us to have a chance of meeting the SDGs or achieving the aspirations of the Paris Agreement.

India is supporting this solar revolution. By founding and hosting the International Solar Alliance, it has moved decisively to increasing access to solar finance, lowering the cost of technology and building the solar skills needed among engineers, planners and administrators. But it has also set an unparalleled deployment target for solar power generation. The National Solar Mission aims to reach 100 GW of solar power generation by 2022 and has spurred intense activity in solar development across India which has captured the imagination of the region.

At the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, the development arm of the United Nations in the region, we are clear solar energy can boost renewables’ share in our power mix, increase energy efficiency and bring electricity to remote parts of the region. Our research is focused on overcoming the challenges of achieving these three elements of SDG7. Upon request, we support countries maximize the potential to adopt sustainable energy through technical support and capacity building, including through the development of energy transition roadmaps. Work is also underway to develop a develop a regional masterplan on sustainable energy connectivity, vital to make the most of solar power by supporting the growth of cross border power systems.

A core purpose of sustainable development is to ensure we leave future generations a world which affords them the same opportunities we have enjoyed. This is within our grasp if we work across borders to promote solar energy throughout Asia and the Pacific. India has a major role to play. Its experience gives us a historical opportunity to shape best practices in solar energy for our region and reduce carbon emissions. This is experience we cannot afford to waste.

UN ESCAP

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Energy

Phasing Out Coal and Other Transitions: Lessons From Europe

Dr. Arshad M. Khan

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Climate change reports are seldom sanguine.  Carbon dioxide, the principal culprit, is at record levels, about twice the preindustrial value and a third higher than even 1950.  Without abatement it could rise to  a thousand parts per million in a self-reinforcing loop spiraling into an irredeemable ecological disaster.  The UN IPCC report warns of a 12-year window for action.

Contrasting President Trump’s boast of US energy independence based on coal and other fossil fuels in his SOTU address on Tuesday, two Democrats, Senator Ed Markey and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, have introduced a 10-page Green New Deal resolution to achieve carbon neutrality within ten years.  While this target may not be technically feasible, it is an admirable start to the discussion.  At the same time, the Germans are attacking the problem forcefully as demonstrated by their new coal commission report issued last week.

In November 2016, the German Federal Government adopted its Climate Action Plan 2050.  It outlined CO2 reduction targets in energy, industry, buildings, transport and agriculture.  Energy is the most polluting; its emissions total the sum of all the others except industry and energiewende (energy change) was a key aspect of the plan.

So even as our atavistic president is promoting coal, Germany, the EU economic powerhouse, announced it is planning to phase out all coal-fired power stations by 2038.  As outlined in the November 2016 plan, a commission comprising delegates from industry, trade unions, civil society including environmental NGOs and policy makers was appointed in 2018 to examine the issue and prescribe an equitable solution.  After eight months of negotiations and discussions, concluding with a final 21-hour marathon session, it has produced a dense 336-page document.  Only one member out of 28 cast an opposing vote, and Greenpeace added a dissenting option as it wants the process to begin immediately.

Such an objective was a special challenge because of Germany’s long industrial history coupled with coal mining.   The plan shuts down the last coal-burning power station by 2038 as the final step in the pathway outlined — an ambitious alternative is to exit by 2035 if conditions permit.  Total capacity of coal-using stations in Germany is about 45 gigawatts, and the report sets out a four-year initial goal of 12.5 gigawatts to be switched-off i.e. about two dozen of the larger 500+ megawatt units by 2022.  Progressively, eight years later (by 2030) another 24 gigawatts will have been phased out leaving just 9 gigawatts to be eliminated by 2035 if possible but definitely by 2038 at the latest.

It is a demanding plan for coal has been deeply embedded with German industry.  To ease the pain for tens of thousands of workers and their families, the plan allocates federal funding to deal with its broad ramifications i.e. job loss and displacement.  An adjustment fund will be used for those aged 58 and over to compensate pension deficits.  Funds are also directed towards retraining for younger workers and for education programs designed to broaden skills.

It includes 40 billion euros to develop alternative industry in coal mining states plus money not directly project-related.  In addition further investments in infrastructure and a special funding program for transport adding up to 1.5 billion euros per year are allocated in the federal budget until 2021.

The change-over will raise electricity prices, so a 2 billion euro per year compensation program for users, both private individuals and industrial, will continue until 2030.  This is designed to relieve the burden on families, and to maintain industrial competitiveness.

Germany is not alone.  The EU has issued an analysis of accelerated coal phase-out by 2030.  The Netherlands has its own energiesprong (energy leap) focused on energy transition and energy neutral buildings, meaning that the buildings generate enough energy through solar panels or other means to pay for the energy deficit from their construction and use.   It can now clad entire apartment blocks in insulation and solar panels, and is reputed to be so efficient that some buildings are producing more renewable energy than consumed. This expertise is also being utilized in the UK.

Given the forests, the Norwegians have tried something different.  They have built the world’s tallest wooden skyscraper, the Mjøs Tower, 85 meters high in Brumunddal.  Its wood sourced from forests within a 50 km radius uses one-sixth the energy of steel and of course much less, if at all, emission of greenhouse gases.

By the end of Germany’s enormous sector-wide endeavor, it expects to reduce CO2 emissions to roughly half through 2030 and 80-95 percent by 2050.  The comprehensive and complete nature of the program

could serve as a blueprint here in the US.  Thus the obvious question:  If Germany with a far larger proportion of its workforce associated with coal can do it, why can’t the US?

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The mysterious case of disappearing electricity demand

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Authors: Stéphanie Bouckaert and Timothy Goodson*

Electricity is at the heart of modern life, and so it’s easy to assume that our reliance on electricity will increase or even accelerate. However, in many advanced economies the data reveals a surprisingly different story.

Electricity demand has increased by around 70% since 2000, and in 2017, global electricity demand increased by a further 3%. This increase was more than any other major fuel, pushing total demand to 22 200 terawatt-hours (TWh). Electricity now accounts for 19% of total final consumption, compared to just over 15% in 2000.

Yet while global demand growth has been strong, there are major disparities across regions. In particular, in recent years electricity demand in advanced economies has begun to flatten or in some cases decline – in fact electricity demand fell in 18 out of 30 IEA member countries over the period 2010-2017. Several factors can account for this slowing of growth, but the key reason is energy efficiency.

There have been a range of new sources of electricity demand growth in advanced economies, including digitalization and the electrification of heat and mobility. However savings from energy efficiency have outpaced this growth. Energy efficiency measures adopted since 2000 saved almost 1 800 TWh in 2017, or around 20% of overall current electricity use.

Over 40% of the slowdown in electricity demand was attributable to energy efficiency in industry, largely a result of strict, broadly applied, minimum energy performance standards for electric motors. In residential buildings, total energy use by certain classes of appliances has already peaked. For example, energy use for refrigerators (98% of which are covered by performance standards) is well below the high point reached in 2009, and energy use for lighting has also declined. In the absence of energy efficiency improvements, electricity demand in advanced economies would have grown at 1.6% per year since 2010, instead of 0.3%.

Changes in economic structure in advanced economies have also contributed to lower demand growth. In 2000, around 53% of electricity demand in the industrial sector came from heavy industry, but by 2017 this figure had fallen to less than 45%.  Advanced economies now account for 30% of global steel production, for example, down from 60% in 2000, and for 25% of aluminium production, also down from around 60% in 2000.

Finally, electricity demand for heat and mobility increased by only 350 TWh between 2000 and 2017. Today, electric cars represent only 1.2% of all passenger vehicle sales in advanced economies and account for less than 0.5% of the passenger vehicle stock. Since 2000, only around 7% of households in advanced economies have switched from fossil fuels (mainly gas) to electricity for space and water heating purposes, and use of electricity for meeting heat demand in the industrial sector remains marginal. In many regions, the price of electricity relative to fossil fuels limits its competitiveness for heating end-uses.

When we look to the future, the pace of electrification is set to pick-up somewhat in advanced economies. Nonetheless, electricity demand growth is projected to remain sluggish in the IEA’s New Policies Scenario (NPS), as improvements in energy efficiency continue to act as a brake on increasing demand for many end-uses. In addition, fewer purchases of household appliances (most households in advanced economies today own at least one of each major household appliance such as refrigerators, washing machines and televisions), and a shift from industry to the less electricity-intensive services sector, all contribute to lower electricity demand growth.

On average, electricity demand in advanced economies is projected to grow at just 0.7% per year to 2040 in the NPS, with the increase largely due to digitalization and policies that incentivise the use of electric vehicles and electric heating. Without those policies, electricity demand would continue to flatten or even decline in many advanced economies.

There are other factors at play. For example, population growth in many advanced economies is barely exceeded by electricity demand growth, meaning that further growth in GDP per capita does not lead to an increase in electricity demand per capita (as an exception, the industry sector in Korea accounts for a large share of electricity demand, and so it is one of the few advanced economies that sees industry contribute to overall electricity demand growth on a per capita basis).

Ultimately, despite moderate growth in electricity demand, fuel-switching to electricity and energy efficiency improvements in the use of other fuels mean the share of electricity in final consumption is projected to increase to 27% in advanced economies by 2040, up from 22% today.

*Timothy Goodson, WEO Energy Analyst

IEA

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