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Pipelines or Pipe Dreams? Turkey’s Role in Future European Energy Policy

Nargiz Hajiyeva

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[yt_dropcap type=”square” font=”” size=”14″ color=”#000″ background=”#fff” ] T [/yt_dropcap] urkey demonstrates obvious and unique geostrategic significance for the Euro-Atlantic community and as an influential player at the center of Western attention. After the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, the EU brought Turkey in as a major energy conduit for the international stage, increasing its significance and role in the energy sector.

Although Turkey has a lack of energy reserves itself, it is a good transit state and can bring benefit to both itself and the EU through the use of alternative pipelines in different regions. Like Russia, Turkey has both problematic and good relations with the European Union, but unlike Russia it wants to be the part of Euro-Atlantic Security Community.

Although Turkey has negligible proven oil and gas deposits, it strives to gain more access to diversified energy resources in order to meet its domestic economic demands. Therefore, Turkey has taken some geostrategic steps regarding how it can reduce energy vulnerability and ensure secure and diversified supplies. According to the 2010-2014 Strategic Plan by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkey has several major challenges regarding how it can preserve energy security. Turkey’s dependency on foreign investors in the energy field accounts for 74%. Its energy demands are expected to increase up to 4 % annually until 2020. Therefore it must search for secure and reliable cooperation in order to cope with such problems, while being able to anticipate unexpected dilemmas like tanker accidents in the Turkish Straits, which are huge threats to human security and cause environmental degradation. Thus, Turkey’s interests are multi-layered in terms of both domestic and foreign policy issues.

It is apparent that the diversification of supplies and source countries must be one of the main goals of Turkey. It must strive to get traditional energy resources at affordable prices while engineering a successful transition to alternative energy sources so as to reduce its already intolerable dependence on fossil fuels coming from foreign markets. In October 2016, the 23rd Anniversary ceremony of the World Energy Congress was hosted by Turkey. This brought the future significance of energy security in the immediate region to the attention of political and economic leaders all around the world. The main Congress goal, seeking options for delivering sustainable energy systems on national, regional, and global levels, was constantly emphasized.

With the continuously unsteady geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf, the EU launched the Southern dimension of the ENP program, which mainly focused on strengthening relations not only with the Middle East but also with North African countries. The Barcelona process, as it was called, mainly related to these countries taking new actions and steps to establish closer relations. But the EU needs to realize there is no direct entrance to the Middle East or North Africa without the involvement of Turkey. Turkey should always see itself as the main buffer zone or bridge for the EU. The emergence of mass havoc in Syria, Lebanon, Sudan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and other MENA countries due to intrastate crisis puts Turkey in an even more relevant geostrategic position. From this interpretation it can be said that Turkey has a pivotal role in future European energy policy in that it has an open connection to not only greater Caspian hydrocarbon reserves but also energy resources in the Middle East. Furthermore, Turkey can assist Europe to diversify its gas supplies from the Middle East and North Africa. In essence, Turkey should be proactively striving to make itself seen as the primary and exclusive energy hub/bridge for all of Europe.

It is expected that in the coming decades almost 60-70% of European oil and natural gas needs will be provided by third countries which are not members of the EU. The main problem the EU faces currently is the security of its supplies and the lack of diversity in its suppliers, especially an overdependence on Russia. The EU needs new energy counterparts that will offer flexible long-term contracts to European countries. The greater Caspian region could enhance the supply of oil and natural gas to Europe if the EU was more assertive in aligning with Turkey. It has proposed four different gas pipeline projects via routes that would help the EU with its diversification problem and meet its increasing energy needs. By taking into account these possible pipeline projects gas transport to Europe via Turkey may account for 43 Bcm per year, at 6.5% of European gas imports, up to 2030. Of course, this will only occur with the full functioning of the Turkey-Greece-Italy interconnections with 12 Bcm annual capacity of gas supply and the Nabucco Pipeline project constituting 31 Bcm annual capacity. Thus, it is anticipated that the role of Turkey in European energy security will become more pivotal. In spite of some ups and down between the EU and Turkey, especially recently, the EU still has interests in strengthening the Turkish stance as a major energy transit country by joining different energy-related projects, namely Trans-European Energy Networks.

In conclusion, in spite of different political challenges within the international system, the EU understands its increasing energy demands and main concerns can potentially be addressed by better engaging Turkey as a major energy hub and as a reliable partner, all to the benefit of the Middle East and North Africa. The EU must soften its dependency on Russian gas, perhaps with involvement in different gas pipeline projects with other non-member states, especially Caspian-basin countries, with Turkey as its major broker. Despite the current unstable economic and political climate in Turkey, its increasing role as a regional player is undeniable not only for the West but also for greater Asian countries. Turkey is eager to be the dominant energy hub in the region, but the effort to reach that goal depends on more than just Turkey. If a new era of EU engagement cannot take place soon, then Turkey might not be the “good” transit state it so desperately wishes to be. In fact, without these positive relations it might be characterized as a “bad” transit state soon enough due to its own multiple political challenges and increasing insecurity in-country. If that remains constant then Turkey’s pipelines are going to be nothing but pipe dreams.

Ms. Nargiz Hajiyeva is an independent researcher from Azerbaijan. She is an honored graduate student of Vytautas Magnus University and Institute D'etudes de Politique de Grenoble, Sciences PO. She got a Bachelor degree with the distinction diploma at Baku State University from International Relations and Diplomacy programme. Her main research fields concern on international security and foreign policy issues, energy security, cultural and political history, global political economy and international public law. She worked as an independent researcher at Corvinus University of Budapest, Cold War History Research Center. She is a successful participator of International Student Essay Contest, Stimson Institute, titled “how to prevent the proliferation of the world's most dangerous weapons”, held by Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School and an honored alumnus of European Academy of Diplomacy in Warsaw Poland. Between 2014 and 2015, she worked as a Chief Adviser and First Responsible Chairman in International and Legal Affairs at the Executive Power of Ganja. At that time, she was defined to the position of Chief Economist at the Heydar Aliyev Center. In 2017, Ms. Hajiyeva has worked as an independent diplomatic researcher at International Relations Institute of Prague under the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the Czech Republic. Currently, she is pursuing her doctoral studies in Political Sciences and International Relations programme in Istanbul, Turkey.

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How Northwest Europe can shape a clean hydrogen market

Noé van Hulst

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There is a growing awareness that the global energy transition will not succeed unless it finds ways to decarbonise the “hard-to-abate” sectors like industry and heavy transport, while providing sufficient flexibility to balance electricity grids all year round.

Clean hydrogen is one of the few options available. This explains why you hear so much about it lately. Witness the recent reports of the Energy Transition Commission, the EU’s 2050 climate strategy, as well as The Economist. Austria launched a Hydrogen Initiative during their EU presidency this year. Japan holds the presidency of the G20 in 2019 and has already announced that hydrogen will be one of their priorities.

Even more importantly, there is a growing number of real-life applications in the transport sector and beyond that announcements of major new hydrogen projects by companies around the world. Recent examples include Air Liquide in California, Gasunie, Nouryon and Engie in the Netherlands, Equinor in Northern England and Kawasaki in Japan.

In the Netherlands alone, several 100 MW capacity hydrogen projects have been announced close to industrial clusters. Of course, most of these projects are feasibility studies that may not all reach the stage of final investment decision. But we can already see that a growing number of countries are reviewing how to position themselves in the nascent global hydrogen market. This is not only driven by the huge potential of clean hydrogen to help decarbonize the energy system, but also by its contribution to enhancing energy security by lowering the need for imports of oil and gas and offering storage solutions to the increasingly difficult task of balancing the grids.

What does this mean for Europe?

Most probably clean hydrogen will become an important part of the European Union energy strategy of the new EC. But it will take quite some time before that will be a reality. Meanwhile, countries in Northwest Europe have a unique opportunity to use current momentum in the market to jointly craft a suite of coordinated policy actions that could jump-start the development and deployment of clean hydrogen.

The so-called Pentalateral Forum, consisting of the Benelux, France, Germany and Austria, with Switzerland as observer, has acted as a front-runner in electricity and gas market integration in the past. The Netherlands is making the case that it can play a similar role in shaping the European clean hydrogen market.

Already showing publicly that neighbouring countries are willing to consider policy coordination at this moment in time will send a strong signal to the private sector that governments understand that a joint approach will help the scale-up in making projects more or earlier investable and bankable because of bigger market potential.

In addition, this would signal the willingness of governments to overcome complicated cross-border regulatory barriers. Fast-forward 20 or 25 years, and it is possible to imagine European cross-border gas infrastructure being transformed into a new European hydrogen backbone. The key question is now how to make this happen as quickly as we can.

Several policy actions could be considered to accelerate the development and deployment of clean hydrogen. They range from voluntary – or perhaps mandatory – targets for blending of clean hydrogen in the European gas networks and greening of current hydrogen use in industry, to the creation of European transport corridors to enable hydrogen trucks, buses and ships to cross Europe unhindered by lack of access to pumpstations. Zero-emission vehicles targets by some future date are significant drivers in this respect. Gas pipelines which are no longer needed to transport gas might very well be adjusted to transport 100% hydrogen.

The more we would be able to take a European angle in setting objectives and regulating the nascent hydrogen market, the better. In addition, one could imagine ambitious European initiatives to drive down the cost of green hydrogen production by scaling up the size of electrolysis capacity to the necessary GW-scale in the next decades.

This will certainly require new public-private partnerships, bringing together both supply of and demand for clean hydrogen and possibly including banks and investment agencies. For the public side, the challenge will be how to provide a sufficient level of de-risking to make projects viable. We can foresee a European roadmap where initially the production of ‘blue’ hydrogen (using CCUS where feasible) may help us to gain experience and enable the build-up of hydrogen infrastructure, alongside a continuously growing role for green hydrogen (mainly from over time ever increasing volumes of offshore windpower).

Important market players like Engie say it should be possible to push green hydrogen down to competitive prices by around 2030. One can imagine a similar learning curve for green hydrogen as the one we experienced with wind offshore in Europe. What would certainly help business cases is if the EU manages to keep CO2 prices on an upward trajectory.

The Austrian EU presidency estimated that 45% of EU industrial (grey) hydrogen demand, or 10% of EU natural gas consumption, could be substituted by green hydrogen in 2030. Let’s not forget, however, that not all clean hydrogen will need to be produced in Europe. We are receiving more signals on a weekly basis of feasibility projects around the world considering low-cost production of blue and green hydrogen that may reach European destinations in the coming decades by ship or even dedicated pipelines. It is also important that European ports start preparations for absorbing future imports safely.

But what about electrification, which is so often discussed? Well, electrification is extremely important and welcome. In World Energy Outlook 2018, the IEA shows how much scope there is to further electrify our energy system beyond the current 20% of final energy consumption. And if this is done by renewable energy or nuclear, this is a very welcome greening of electrons and helps decarbonization.

But this still leaves the majority of the energy system in need of greening of molecules. And that is exactly the territory where clean hydrogen has such a critical role to play – to reach the sectors where electrification alone won’t do the job, mainly industry and heavy transport, as well as provide seasonal storage that is really hard to manage just with batteries. Regarding industry it is important to understand that it’s not only about greening current use of grey hydrogen, but also about the new waves of decarbonizing investment that often require significantly higher use of clean hydrogen as a feedstock.

In all jurisdictions where the share of renewable electricity rises above say 40%, balancing the grid satisfactorily over time becomes an issue. In some countries the cost of curtailment is already around 1 billion euro per year. There are several ways to maintain sufficient flexibility in the system, but hydrogen storage is certainly an important one.

In short, clean hydrogen is an ideal complement to green electrification. Which is exactly why clean hydrogen is rapidly gaining momentum in the world. Northwest Europe can and should position itself as a front-runner in developing and deploying clean hydrogen to help the decarbonisation of the energy system, while improving energy security at the same time. Many new jobs would be created in the process.

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How will the electricity market of the future work?

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Authors: Kieran McNamara, Valentina Ferlito and Alberto Toril

Our energy destinies rest in the hands of governments – and this is particularly true in power markets. More than 70% of future investments in global energy supply will be made by state-directed entities or respond to regulatory incentives. If we narrow this view to the power sector, more than 95% of global investment will be made in sectors that are fully regulated or affected by mechanisms to manage the risk associated with variable prices on competitive wholesale markets.

Traditionally, electricity markets developed and operated within strictly regulated frameworks, in which vertically integrated utilities handled all or most activities from generation to transmission to retail. Over the past 35 years, however, many parts of the world have gradually moved towards competitive markets as a means to generate and procure electricity alongside many of the support services required to operate a power system.

Today, countries that rely on competitive markets to maintain efficient operations in the short term, either through bilateral physical contracts, power exchanges, or co-ordinated spot markets, account for 54% of the world’s electricity consumption. Once China completes implementation of its power sector reform, this share will increase to almost 80%.

Despite their imperfections, markets have largely succeeded in the goal of providing reliable electricity at least cost to consumers. Nonetheless, some regional markets have come under strain. Without policy measures to address this shortfall, there is a risk to future security of supply. This is a topic that is examined in much greater detail in the electricity focus of the World Energy Outlook-2018.

Since 2010, some electricity markets have experienced a decline in wholesale energy prices brought about by stagnant demand, low natural gas prices and higher output of generation with low marginal costs. This situation is not unique to Europe, for example, our analysis points to similar outcomes emerging in regions such as the United States and Australia.

Ensuring sufficient investment in competitive electricity markets

The decline in market revenues experienced in many markets raises some questions about the ability of competitive markets to provide adequate returns to sustain the existing fleet and to provide adequate signals for timely and efficient investment. The problem arises from the low wholesale market prices that have occurred in many markets, as a result of rapid deployment of variable renewables, the requirement for high levels of reliability (through healthy capacity margins), and, in some cases, low natural gas prices.

While periods of reduced profitability are a natural part of competitive markets, declining revenue in lean systems where investment is needed – which we see in some markets today – may signal a need to re-evaluate market design and its ability to deliver investment and electricity security, especially since the main conditions that have depressed wholesale prices are likely to continue at least in the near term. With new sources of capacity and flexibility in power systems becoming more widely available and cost-competitive, future regulatory frameworks or market reforms should strive to ensure a level playing field for all system resources, including power plants, energy storage systems and demand-side response.

Furthermore, wholesale markets are responsible for non-energy revenues that come from providing a variety of products commonly referred to as system or ancillary services. These products safeguard against unforeseen changes in demand or available supply (primary and secondary reserves), as well as products that support the quality of power (reactive power, frequency regulation and inertia). They provide revenues to sources that, even if not essential for the adequacy of the system, support the reliability of supply and quality of power delivered.

Recent trends suggest that some markets may be unable to deliver investment signals that guarantee resource adequacy. For example, in markets in the European Union, the share of total production costs covered by electricity sales fell from 77% in 2010 to about 60% in 2017, and looks set to continue declining. Such unsatisfactory market signals led many European utilities to broaden their exposure to global markets by means of deep business restructuring and reorganisation, in addition to giving large space for capex optimisation and high investments in operational efficiency, renewables and digitalization. In fact, even if in 2017 the missing money gap narrowed, as wholesale electricity prices and total electricity sales increased by about 20%. This relief was temporal, however, mainly a result of a rebound in natural gas prices, lower contribution than usual of hydropower to the generation mix and extended nuclear plants outages. Unfortunately none of these underlying causes of partial remuneration recovery is likely to continue.

In the United States, the share of total generation costs covered by wholesale electricity sales is also declining. Stagnant demand and the rising share of variable renewables, led by wind power, have added to the downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices in several US electricity markets. Electricity sales may continue to recoup less than the total cost of generation, owing to an expected growth from solar PV and wind generation and a persistence of low gas prices, despite the possibility of a return to growth for electricity demand spurred by space cooling and the electrification of heat and transport.

In Australia, the recent experiences have been quite different; mostly due to scarcity pricing – which also constitutes a key signal for new investment required – that has more than offset an increasing share of renewables during the last seven years and has covered a rising portion of total costs in generation.

Where do we go from here?

The experience of established competitive markets provide useful examples of potential concerns and solutions for countries looking to transition to competitive markets. For example, Japan is pursuing electricity market reforms that establish a set of markets for baseload, transmission usage, capacity, balancing and zero emission credits, which will provide a basket of complementary revenue streams. Mexico is also pursuing market reforms that aim to transition away from regulated to competitive markets and that take account of the experience of other countries.

These points lead to the obvious question: how will the electricity market of the future work? It is very likely that over the medium to long term, many markets will continue to experience further downward pressure on wholesale energy prices as more zero-cost power generation enters the market alongside new energy service providers and innovative technological solutions. Policy makers, regulators and energy sector stakeholders need to understand the changes underway and seek new solutions and market designs that can support the transition towards low-carbon electricity markets while at the same time ensuring the security and adequacy of power systems.

*Valentina Ferlito IEA consultant and Alberto Toril IEA consultant

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A Just and Fair Energy Transition: An opportunity to tackle climate change and create prosperity

Adnan Z. Amin

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Holding the UN climate conference COP24 in Katowice sends a strong signal as it provides the international community with an opportunity to learn from an on-going energy transition in a traditionally fossil-fuel intensive region. At the same time, it reminds us of the imperative of a just energy transition on our pathway towards a climate-safe future.

The global energy landscape is truly witnessing rapid and wide-ranging changes driven by an unprecedented growth of renewables. Last year alone, a record-breaking 168 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity was added globally, making it the sixth year in a row in which new power generations from renewables outpaced conventional sources including from coal.

Renewable energy is driving an energy transformation that is creating new socio-economic opportunities for countries, regions and local communities across the world. It is also key to address climate change, which is becoming ever more urgent. The widely cited recent Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) urges for a rapid scaling-up of renewables to avoid irreversible climate impacts.

Poland has a vast potential of renewable energy resources, such as biomass and wind energy, and is therefore well positioned in this changing landscape. Countries that lead this transformation will also be the ones to reap most of its benefits. While coal fuelled an intensive industrialisation in the 18th century, wind energy could become a new point of industrial departure for Poland. The launch of a parliamentary commission on offshore wind as well as the most recently announced plan by Polish authorities to develop 8 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030 point in this direction.

Indeed, building new wind energy installations makes compelling economic sense for Poland as technology costs continue to fall dramatically. Today, onshore wind represents one of the lowest-cost sources of new power generation globally. Cost for wind turbines alone declined by a remarkable 30% since 2010, the cost of power from onshore wind fell by 23% globally. Innovation and breakthroughs in wind technologies are creating new deployment opportunities and driving cost reductions across the industry further. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) estimates that offshore wind cost could fall by an additional 14% by 2020, making all commercially-available renewables cost-competitive with fossil fuels.

Beyond the strong business case, growing the offshore renewable energy sector will create jobs and revenue in communities across the country. The development of a typical 500-megawatt offshore wind farm requires around 2.1 million person-days of work. A wide range of skills are needed for the successful completion of such a project, from planning, procurement, manufacturing, transport, installation and grid connection as well as operation and maintenance. Jobs which puts countries like Poland in a favourable starting position as it can build on solid local manufacturing capacity.

To put this in concrete numbers in the Polish context, the development of 6 gigawatt of offshore capacity in Poland could create more than 75 000 new jobs and contribute about PLN 60 billion to the economy, according to a study by McKinsey. Developing wind farms in Poland could also increase demand for products from many Polish companies, thereby reviving industries in regions such as Upper Silesia.

It is encouraging to see that Poland is beginning to tap into its enormous wind energy potential, especially in the Polish Baltic Sea, by boosting its existing offshore wind supply chain. It is also already leveraging its local industry to serve the nearby North and Baltic Sea markets, mainly in territorial waters of Germany and the United Kingdom.

Overall, shifting the global energy system to renewables would grow the world economy by one per cent till 2050, translating into a cumulative gain of more than USD 52 trillion. IRENA also estimates a total of 29 million jobs in renewables by 2050. With 500 000 new jobs, more jobs were created in renewables 2017 than in all fossil fuel technologies combined, surpassing the 10-million-benchmark for the first time. If we add social welfare benefits like better health, air quality and reduced pollution, potential gains more than outweigh additional costs.

However, to ensure that costs and benefits are fairly distributed, the on-going, large-scale global energy transformation has to be accompanied by policies enabling a just transition. A just transition must create alternatives to people and regions trapped in fossil fuel dynamics through new economic opportunity, education and skills trainings and adequate social safety systems. Governments and local authorities will have to engineer new job opportunities for job losses caused by replacing fossil fuels with climate-safe power sources. With its ambitious plans to accelerate offshore wind energy, Poland is sending a powerful signal to other countries not only in Central and Eastern Europe but also to the rest of world that moving forward on renewables makes economic sense and can be designed in a socially just way.

Far from having to choose between mitigating climate change and economic growth, it is more evident than ever that an opportunity exists to ramp up renewable energy technologies, decarbonize economies and shift the global development paradigm to one of shared prosperity.

This piece was published in Polish by Wirtualny Nowy Przemysł on 13 December 2018.(IRENA)

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