[yt_dropcap type=”square” font=”” size=”14″ color=”#000″ background=”#fff” ] A [/yt_dropcap] s announced in my last piece on the issue of Italy’s potential exit from the EU, the omens are not very encouraging and the results of the referendum conducted Sunday the 4th of December confirms it. The PM Matteo Renzi, having lost the referendum he himself called on financial and legislative reforms, has just announced his resignation.
In effect he has lost the confidence of the majority of the Italian people. The populist right wing parties such as Five Stars are of course jubilant. They already won the mayoralty of Rome and now smell victory and power and the eventual withdraw of Italy from the EU. So do the right wing Lega party which would like to eventually dissolve even the Italian national union. They feel that Southern Italian are not real Italians.
Mr. Putin too must be jubilant in as much as the results of the referendum further incentivizes his policy of divide and conquer in Europe and among the Western allies (the so called NATO countries, the Baltics first and foremost). One can safely predict political turmoil in both Italy and the EU in the next year or so, before general elections are held. Given that Italy is the fourth largest economy of the EU, this is a significant event for the whole EU polity.
The question arises: how did we get to this sad state of affairs? To even begin to understand them, as I have reiterated time and again, one needs to go back to the times of Italian unification in 1860 to Garibaldi’s invasion of Sicily, wonderfully described in the famous classical novel The Leopard, already examined in another piece. There we have the prince of Salina’s nephew Tancredi make this insightful comment: “uncle, we need to change everything so that nothing changes.” In other words, it was a matter of changing the king from a Southern Italian Bourbon kind, Francis II, to a Northern Italian Savoy kind, Victor Emanuel II. This is redolent of another famous statement made by an Italian patriot who had fought with Garibaldi, Massimo d’Azeglio: “And now that we have made Italy, we need to make the Italians.” That statement too was prophetic: it resembles what is said today about European unification: “And now that we have made Europe, we need to make the Europeans.”
How about this one: “the Italians thought they were joining a civilization and an ideal union of democratic nations in the 1950s, but soon found out that they were joining a bureaucracy interested only in economic issues of wealth and ‘progress’ (especially banks’ progress), and unconcerned with the real economic needs of the poor and the middle class. These people are now very angry and are lashing out in an emotional rather than rational mode.” Such a statement explains a lot of what is going on. It has less to do with ideological fanaticism and more to do with rampant disappointment and delusion. We have seen a similar phenomenon in the Brexit event and here in America with the unexpected election of Donald Trump to the presidency. When people feel that they have nothing to lose, whey will gamble on a sociopath simply to thwart the hated bureaucracy. Perhaps Dostoyevsky said it best: “put man in a completely determinist universe, and he will blow it up, and himself with it, simply to prove that he is free.”
But let us proceed with the brief suvey of the historical narrative. Italian unification created the illusion that things would now get better, but as Tancredi astutely predicted it was just an illusion; things got worse and one million Italians had to emigrate to North America, South America, Australia and other places. Some scholars have argued that at least the monarchy was constitutional and there was a modicum of democracy in place. That democracy, such as it was, came to an end after the end of World War I when a brutal dictator, Benito Mussolini, rose to power. He managed to destroy whatever progress had been initiated in this latest of European unified nations.
After an hyaturs of twenty five years of authoritarian anti-democratic years, at the end of World War II, a democratic republic was set up in 1946, and once again the Italians were fed the illusion that now, with Democracy restored, things could only get better. Moreover, Italy became one of the six founding member nations of the European Union. Economic progress soon followed with the so called “Italian economic miracle” of the 60s. But the progress in democratic ways and means did not follow suit. What the people experienced was a party, Christian and Democratic, so called, that took over the reins of power, not relinquishing them since. The party, which has dropped the designation “Christian” proved to be neither very Christian nor very democratic, except for its founding fathers who held genuine Christian values. But who listens to them now?
Neither did Mussolini’s nostalgic look back to past Roman glories prove to be a panacea. He should have remembered Guicciardini answer to Machiavelli’s throw back to the Romans: “to compare the present Italians to the ancient Romans is like comparing a noble horse to a donkey.” By which Guicciardini did not mean to disparage the Italians, of which he was one, but to remind them that the new modern Italians (who had universal experiences of the Catholic (universal) Church and universal Renaissance, were not exactly Romans but were good at other things besides military prowess; that military prowess by itself did not make a nation great; that artistic prowess was far superior.
Be that as it may, once again the people felt cheated and between the 60 and the end of the century began to cast ballots as a vote of protest. That explains why the Communist party was and remains the largest outside Russia. The people have seen the rich and powerful tripling and quadrupling their wealth while the poor and the middle class have stagnated economically. Sometimes they misguidedly think that the rich are incapable of stealing and avoiding taxes since they are already rich. So they opted for a clown like Berlusconi and now may end up opting for one like Grillo. Anybody but the current bureaucracy.
Is there a political-moral lesson for the whole of the EU here? Yes, and it is this: it is a delusion wrapped in an illusion for a people to build a union based on bread and circuses, soccer games and reality shows. Failing a strong cultural indentity based on the genuine values that give Europe a genuine identity (which are not exclusively political or economic), there will remain a vacuum that will not be filled by trivialities such as circuses and shows, or vacuous nostalgia for past glories. The delusion nowadays is that the vacuum is being filled by the nationalism and the fascism of old. You see this in authoritarian governments blossoming all over Europe (one thinks of Hungary, Poland, and the myriad right wing parties functioning as Trojan horses in just about all the EU member states with the bleissing of Mr. Putin). Nationalism gives the illusion of strenght and political coherence, but eventually, having destroyed democracy and the very concept of truth, we will all lose and gather what we have sown. The omens are not very good and Cassandra has given her warning. Let those who have ears, let them hear.
Merkel’s projection regarding nationalist movements in Europe
In recent years, we have repeatedly spoken about the blows that hit the United Europe hard, and resulted in constant and overwhelming crises in this block. The European authorities now refer to “returning to nationalism” as a potential danger (and in some cases, the actual danger!) In this block, and warn against it without mentioning the origin of this danger.
The German Chancellor has once again warned about the rise of nationalism in Europe. The warning comes at a time when other European officials, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have directly or indirectly, acknowledged the weakening of Europe’s common values. This indicates that the EU authorities don’t see the danger of extensive nationalism far from reality.
“Nationalism and a winner-take-all attitude are undermining the cohesion of Europe”, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said. “Perhaps the most threatening development for me is that multilateralism has come under such pressure,” Merkel said. “Europe is facing attacks from the outside and from the inside.”
A simple contemplation on the issue of “return of the United Europe to nationalism” suggests that the current European authorities have played an active role in the desire of their citizens to return to the time before the formation of the European Union. In the 2014 general election, we saw more than 100 right-wing extremist candidates finding way to the European Parliament.
This could be the starting point for making fundamental changes in macroeconomic policies and creating a different relationship between the European leaders and the citizens of this block. But this did not happen in practice.
Although the failure of European leaders to manage the immigration crisis and, most importantly, the continuation of the economic crisis in some of the Eurozone countries has contributed to the formation of the current situation, but it should not be forgotten that the growth of radical and nationalist parties in Europe has largely been due to the block’s officials incapability in convincing European citizens about the major policies in Europe. In this regard, those like Angela Merkel and Macron don’t actually feel any responsibility.
Undoubtedly, if this process doesn’t stop, the tendency to nationalism will spread across the Europe, and especially in the Eurozone. European officials are now deeply concerned about next year’s parliamentary elections in Europe. If this time the extreme right parties can raise their total votes and thus gain more seats in the European Parliament, there will be a critical situation in the Green Continent.
The fact is that far-right extremists in countries such as France, Sweden, Austria and Germany have been able to increase their votes, and while strengthening their position in their country’s political equations, they have many supporters in the social atmosphere.
Finally, the German Chancellor remarks, shouldn’t be regarded as a kind of self-criticism, but rather are a new projection of the European leaders. Merkel, Macron and other European officials who are now warning about the emergence of nationalism in Europe should accept their role in this equation.
This is the main prerequisite for reforming the foundations in Europe. If they refuse to feel responsible, the collapse of the European Union will be inevitable, an issue that Merkel and Macron are well aware of.
First published in our partner MNA
Dayton Peace Accord 23 Years On: Ensured Peace and Stability in Former Yugoslavia
For the past twenty-three years life has been comparatively peaceful in the breakaway republics of the former Yugoslavia. The complicated civil war that began in Yugoslavia in 1991 had numerous causes and began to break up along the ethnic lines. The touching stories and the aftermath effects of the breakaway republics of Bosnia- Herzegovina, Croatia and in Kosovo are still unfolding. Though the numbers of deaths in the Bosnia- Herzegovina conflict in former Yugoslavia are not known precisely, most sources agree that the estimates of deaths vary between 150,000 to 200,000 and displaced more than two million people. During the conflict a Srebrenica a North-eastern enclave of Bosnia once declared as a United Nations (UN ) safe area” saw one of the worst atrocity since second world war.
It has been estimated that more than 8,000 Muslim Bosniaks were massacred in Srebrenica and it was one of the most brutal ethnic cleansing operations of its kind in modern warfare. The US brokered peace talks revived the a peace process between the three warring factions in Bosnia- Herzegovina. For Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina a United States (US ) -brokered peace deal reached in Dayton on 21st November 1995. In a historic reconciliation bid on 14 December 1995 , the Dayton Peace Accord was signed in Paris, France, between Franjo Tudjman president of the Republic of Croatia and Slobodan Milosevic president of the Federal Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro), Alija Izetbegovic, president of the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina.
When conflict in Bosnia- Herzegovina, Croatia ended, the reconciliation began between ethnically divided region. The US played a crucial role in defining the direction of the Peace process. In 1996, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) -led 60,000 multinational peace enforcement force known as the Implementation Force (IFOR)) was deployed to help preserve the cease-fire and enforce the treaty provisions. Thereafter, the Court was established by Resolution 808 and later, Resolution 827 of the United Nations Security Council, which endorsed to proceed with setting up of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) to try crimes against humanity . International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) was the first United Nations (UN) war crimes tribunal of its kind since the post-second world war Nuremberg tribunal.
In the late 1990’s, as the political crisis deepened a spiral of violence fuelled the Kosovo crisis between the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) and the Yugoslav forces. Unlike the Bosnia- Herzegovina, Kosovo was a province of Serbia, of former Yugoslavia that dates back to 1946, when Kosovo gained autonomy as a province within Serbia. It is estimated that more than 800,000. Kosovos were forced out of Kosovo in search of refuge and as many as 500,000 more were displaced within Kosovo.
Subsequent t hostilities in Kosovo the eleven week air campaign led by NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) against Yugoslavia in 1999 the Yugoslavian forces pulled troops out of Kosovo NATO. After the war was over, the United Nations Security Council, under the resolution 1244 (1999) approved to establish an international civil presence in Kosovo, known as the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). Nevertheless UNMIK regulation No 1999/24 provided that the Law in Force in Kosovo prior to March 22, 1989 would serve as the applicable law for the duration of the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).
In this context reconciliation is a key to national healing of wounds after ending a violent conflict. Healing the wounds of the past and redressing past wrongs is a process through which a society moves from a divided past to a shared future. Over the years in Serbia, Bosnia- Herzegovina, Croatia and in Kosovo the successful peace building processes had happened. The success of the peace building process was possible because of participation of those concerned, and since appropriate strategies to effectively approach was applied with all relevant actors. The strengthening of institutions for the benefit of all citizens has many important benefits for the peace and stability of former Yugoslavia. Hence, the future looks bright for the Balkan states of Serbia, Bosnia- Herzegovina, Croatia and Kosovo.
Hungarian Interest, Ukraine and European Values
Diplomatic conflicts that have recently arisen between Hungary and its neighboring countries and the European Union as a whole most clearly show the new trend in European politics. This trend is committing to national and state values of a specific European country, doubting the priority of supranational interests within the European Union. Political analyst Timofey Bordachev believes that “the era of stale politics and the same stale politicians, who make backstage decisions based on the“ lowest common denominator,” are finally coming to an end. Politicians with a new vision of the world order come to power, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Austrian Federal Chancellor Sebastian Kurtz, or the new head of the Italian Interior Ministry, leader of the right-wing League of the North Party, Matteo Salvini ”.
It is not the first year that Hungary is trying to protect the interests of its citizens and the state from external influence, to protect the Hungarians in the territory of neighbouring states by establishing for this a special position (Commissioner for the development of the Transcarpathian region of Ukraine), to determine relations with other countries on the basis of their attitude to the rights of Hungarians. This is how conflicts with the European Union arose, after Hungary refused to let migrants into the country, in the same manner, a conflict arose with Ukraine, which is trying to build a state ideology, based on nationalism, which a priori does not provide for the proper level of realization and protection of the rights of non-titular nations.
In relation to Hungary, Ukraine follows the same policy as in relation to Russia – to initiate various accusations, to call for punishment, to talk about the inconsistency with European values of the Hungarian policy under the leadership of Orban. Doing so Kiev has its multifaceted interest: cooperation with NATO and the EU, support for any decisions of Brussels, the anti-Russian course, domestic policy based on the nationalist ideology. And in all these areas Hungary poses a problem for Ukraine. In the description of relations with Hungary Kiev even uses the word “annexation“.
Hungary is hardly planning to seize any Ukrainian territory, but on what grounds Ukraine falsely accuses Hungary of its annexation intentions in relation to Transcarpathia? The Ukrainian side highlights several positions:
Issuing Hungarian passports to Ukrainian citizens (ethnic Hungerians)
This is an old story, it has come to light again recently due to the growth of Ukrainian nationalism. Moreover, there are concerns about the implementation by Hungary of the “Crimean scenario” in relation to Transcarpathia.
The Hungarian government has created the position of “Commissioner for the development of Ukraine’s Transcarpathian region and the program for the development of kindergartens in the Carpathian region”.
Ukraine demanded an explanation. A note of protest was delivered to the Hungarian Charge d’Affaires in Ukraine, and the Foreign ministers of Ukraine and Hungary had a telephone conversation on the problem. Hungary continues to ignore the requirements of Kiev.
Ukraine fears further disintegration processes
At the same time, in Kiev there is no understanding of the fact that combining the ideology of nationalism with the country’s national diversity and European integration is hardly possible.
Ukrainian experts note the growth of separatism in the Transcarpathian region, as well as the “strange behavior” of the governor, who plays on the side of Hungary. They also complain that “pro-Ukrainian ideology”(?) is not being сonsolidated in Transcarpathia, and this region is not controlled and monitored by the Ministry of information. In a word, the state is losing control over the territory, which it neither develops nor controls. Such behavior of the governor and the region’s residents may indicate that the state is not sufficiently present in the lives of residents of Transcarpathia, and this a financial and humanitarian drawback they compensate with the help of Hungary, – experts believe.
Apparently, Ukraine is unable to reach an agreement with Hungary as relations are tense. In response to the Ukrainian law on education, adopted in the fall of 2017, which infringes the rights of national minorities, Budapest blocked another, the third, Ukraine-NATO meeting. Ukraine witnessed this embarrassing situation in April 2018. At the same time elections were held in Hungary, in which Viktor Orban’s party won a majority in the parliament. Such a tough stance of Budapest in relation to the Ukrainian educational policy Kiev considered to be just a sign of electoral populism. However, this was a mistake.
Viktor Orban’s victory in spring 2018 was convincing, and a convincing victory means obvious support of his migration policies as well as his support for compatriots abroad. The party of Orban – Fides – not only won a majority but a constitutional majority – 133 of the 199 seats in the National Assembly of Hungary.
There is no doubt that Hungary has become Ukraine’s another serious opponent in the process of its European integration. And it is unlikely that either country will take a step back: there will be presidential elections in Ukraine soon, and in Hungary, the victory won by Orban, apparently, confirms the approval of his independent foreign policy by the citizens. So the conflict is likely to develop.
First published in our partner International Affairs
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