[yt_dropcap type=”square” font=”” size=”14″ color=”#000″ background=”#fff” ] H [/yt_dropcap]umanity scurvies on hopes! With a new regime in place in USA, hopes are indeed very about the feasibility of establishment of much delayed Palestine state whose lands Israel occupies with US baking. Now all eyes are on the progress and process of establishing Palestine state.
Palestinians have, after a great deal of collective suffering under the Zionist military brutality for years, achieved last year their first objective of becoming a defacto member of UN which is indeed the most positive event in life of humanity in recent years. Notwithstanding all strenuous efforts by Israel, Mossad and American Jewish lobbyist lords, including those in Neocons that made the White House stand solid behind Israel brutally targeting the besieged Palestinians, PLO (PA) has managed to win the UN membership, though without any voting power but of course would also be realized sooner than later.
After a somewhat neutralist twist in Obama era without any sincere concern for the plight of people of Palestine, world expects a totally positive approach from the new Trump government that replaces a Zionist regime effectively controlled by Hillary and Neocons, totally committed to the cause of expansionist Israeli genocides inside Palestine.
As it stands, Palestine is a UN member as a state under occupation. President Obama did not make any effort to make Palestine a soverign state mainly because a prominent Zionist American Hillary Clinton, swearing by Zionist expansionist ideology, did not let that happen. Palestinians continued to suffer as Israel began targeting civilians, children and women in Gaza Strip which it wants to reoccupy. Yet neither Obama nor Hillary has any sympathy for the Palestinian children getting killed by Israeli military. All that seemed worrying them is the slow progress in the Zionist expansionist criminal operations inside Palestine. Obama has added more money and terror goods, technology to Israeli system, making it remain the formidable military plus nuclear power of West Asia.
With President-elect Donald Trump seeking peace in Mideast, Netanyahu wants to start out on the right foot during a meeting with President Trump that could take place at the end of March 2017 when this hawk speaks at the annual conference of powerful Jews the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). He has instructed his diplomatic right-hand man (lawyer Yitzhak Molcho), the Israeli National Security Council and the Foreign Ministry to prepare policy papers for such a meeting in the Oval Office. In addition, the Israeli Embassy in Washington has been talking to Trump’s advisers and with new senators of both parties in order to prepare the encounter.
Zionist expansionist terrorism
And Israel thrives at the cost of Palestinians, due to foolishness and arrogance of US presidents. The joint US-Israeli arrogance is the cause for the continuous suffering of the besieged Palestinians whose lands are being under brutal control of joint terror blockades of Israel-Egyptian regimes.
In fact, Israel opposes world peace, it does not seek peace with Palestinians, it has no idea about a peace deal with Palestine which would eventually deny and end aggression and genocides, it still wants to continue brutal occupation and crimes against humanity. It however talks about direct bogus talks with Palestinians to impress the western powers in order to get military and technology aid.
Not happy with foreign powers taking interest in Mideast peace, Israel has rejected taking part in an international peace conference advocated by France. On Nov. 7, Jacob Nagel, Israel’s national security adviser, told French peace envoy Pierre Vimont that Israel would not participate in any international conference, considering such a forum an international diktat. It wants only the support for its brutalities in Palestine and Mideast. Israel instead claims it wants only direct but bogus talks with the Palestinians in order to prolong occupational crimes.
One of the reasons Israelis were so involved in this election campaign was undoubtedly is the fear that if Hillary loses that won’t be in its terror interests and also the knowledge that the results would have far-reaching political and diplomatic ramifications for Israel. When most commentators and polls in the United States predicted an almost certain victory for Clinton, the Israeli media focused on the anticipated implications for Netanyahu’s right-wing government. Obviously, Trump’s victory has upset Israeli calculations.
Israel does not distinguish among US presidents in terms of support for Zionist fascism and fanaticism and has taken their support for granted. The climax came when Trump became the “messiah” of the Israeli right based on his election promises — to relocate the US Embassy to Jerusalem, for instance. No one in Israel has the slightest idea whether the 45th president of the USA will show any interest whatsoever in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, if he will also turn a blind eye to construction in the settlements or decide to move the American Embassy to Jerusalem. Israel is damns sure it can play the new president as well as it wants.
However, many in Israel and USA think Trump cannot be different towards Israel and he would also let Israel continue with its expansionist and genocide policies. Tel Aviv pins all hopes on US/NATO wars in Arab/Islamic world so that its occupational infrastructure is intact in Palestine and can continue to slaughter the Palestinians at will.
Earlier, Israel had not attached importance to US poll for too long after the Zionist state came into being. Until 2012, Israelis showed no exceptional interest in the US election but now the issue of illegal settlements has made Israeli leaders nervous as a new hawk takes power in Washington. Jews realized that the social changes, making political changes, in Israel’s strongest and most important ally USA would impact them directly too. However, a smart US educated Netanyahu did not repeat his 2012 mistake and made a point of staying out of the election — publicly and officially , at least — the “historic” taboo had already been shattered.
Although the Zionist leaders “proudly” say now that the two state solution option is gone with the election of Trump, Israelis do reel from US election as their favorite candidate Hillary Clinton bite the dust at the dustings. On the night the votes were being counted, the heated, emotional debates that erupted between Israelis watching the American drama unfold made it seem as though the election was for the Israeli Knesset, not the White House. Israel’s leading journalists could not hide their shock and disappointment at Democrat Hillary Clinton’s defeat.
Obama continues with Zionist US policy
President Obama inherited entire legacy of previous presidents in policies and practices especially in Mideast. He extended terror wars to Libya and added more troops to Afghanistan. Obama accelerated terror wars of Bushdom, killed thousands of Muslims in Mideast and added more terror goods to Israel.
Israel and Trump’s pro-Israel supporters are already sending signals to Obama to forgo any kind of action at the United Nations. International political observers are worried that the newly elected US president might, on instruction from Israeli regime cum Jewish US lobbyists, abandon the Middle East or alternatively make extremist decisions. Israel has been pushing Washington to h as enacting his campaign promise to move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in Palestine.
For the skeptics, Obama making a controversial decision on the Middle East conflict would not be easy even though freed, as he is, from election shackles. There are skeptics who think he will not have the courage to make a bold decision as a lame duck in the White House.
Like India occupies Jammu Kashmir on the falsified strength of a possible fake document, Israel also takes all precautions to see noting obstructs the brutal occupation of neighboring nation Palestine without even fake documents. USA, UNSC and NATO are the strength of the Israeli regime, its fascism
The usual ploy of “anti-Semitism” tricks won’t work any longer
Israel lectures US presidents
Occasionally one gets the feeling if Israel controls US president.
For too long USA has pursued not just pro-Israeli policies but also let itself controlled by Israel in policy matters. Israeli relations received a setback during the Obama era although he also provided sumptuous aid in cash and arms and technology to appease hardcore Zionists in USA and Israel. Israeli leader address the US Congress and deliver advises to Americans.
Israeli hardline PM Benjamin Netanyahu has actively and discretely begun preparing for his first meeting with the next US president. He is counting the days until the end of President Barack Obama’s presidency. Their relationship was in trouble beginning with their first meeting, when Netanyahu tried in vain to convince Obama about the legitimacy of the settlements, to the unprecedented clash between the two leaders when Netanyahu took sides with the Republicans in Congress on the Iran deal.
During his forthcoming meeting with President Trump, Netanyahu would tell Trump that Palestinian cause problems for USA and regional peace cannot be solved by making Palestine an independent nation. He wishes to remove the resolution of the Palestinian issue from the list of elements necessary for regional stability and convince the new president that fundamentalist terror is the root problem of the region (and for world stability for that matter). Netanyahu will argue that the Islamic State, Hezbollah and Hamas are the real enemies of both Israel and pragmatic Arab countries. Thus, the region should align around the battle against Iranian-sponsored terror, not the Palestinian statehood issue.
Hawk Netanyahu as usual is eager to give along lecture to Trump on international politics with special reference to Mideast of which he as Israeli PM claims to be an expert, and intends to persuade the new president to cooperate closely with Israel on Iranian compliance with the agreement. He will encourage American deterrence against Iran’s long-range missile development and the sponsoring of regional and international terrorism. American sanctions against Tehran must therefore remain a realistic option
Netanyahu blames it all on the personality of the outgoing president, and he does not perceive this as a result of a fundamental interest clash between the two countries. Netanyahu, said the official, believes he can get along well with Trump.
In Washington, Netanyahu will not allow President Trump discuss Palestine issue or Israeli genocides. He obviously would make the case for fighting terror first and addressing Palestinians last, office and the Israeli Embassy are preparing for a media blitz to reiterate his view of the Israeli cause. His government and the Israeli Embassy are preparing for a media blitz to reiterate his view of the Israeli cause.
In short, Netanyahu would like the next president to embrace and adopt Israel’s “no” on the Palestinian issue. In parallel, Netanyahu is, as Israeli policy, preparing to galvanize the organized American Jewish community to his policy aims vis-a-vis the next regime. The Israeli Embassy in Washington is in contact with US Jewish organizations that are able to influence the administration and Congress, primarily the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations and AIPAC. The new US Congress will be the main focus of these organizations in order to spread Netanyahu’s gospel.
Netanyahu’s third issue would be preventing American and international pressure on Israel on the following points: 1, Illegal colonies construction and USA must express its opposition to any Israeli settlement expansion more privately than under Obama: 1. Public assurances that the United States will veto any UN Security Council resolution critical of Israel or setting terms of reference for a two-state solution process. USA must as before veto any UN Security Council resolution critical of Israel or setting terms of reference for a two-state solution process.2. USA has to foil any EU member state initiative on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, such as the French initiative on a two-state solution.
One has no idea as to what would President Trump tell Netanyahu.
Task before Trump presidency
President elects Donald Trump’s statement that he would end war between Israel and Palestinians is the first ever such intension for peace in Mideast but has been despised and not welcomed in Israel. Israel wants every president to carry forward the policy of genocides in Palestine. Even the Zionist left is shocked and terrified. Never before has Israeli media coverage of an American election been so intense and so involved.
The media globally described the victory of Trump against the powerful Hillary Clinton as establishment candidate as “shock win” because every step was ensured for the victory of Hillary as the first ever woman president to prolong the terror occupation of Muslim countries, invade more Muslim countries, support the expansionist drive of Zionist criminal regime, etc.
Of course, the Trump win was remarkable, though unexpected by majority of corporate regimes and their media outlets across the world. That means Trump needs his act together and launch anti-state terror and anti-occupation moves systematically and honestly. There was also a clear sense from their reports that most reporters and analysts preferred the Democratic candidate.
President Trump should realize that he has arrived on international scene at a critical juncture as state terrorism has turned ugly and as fascist gang capitalist nations has become arrogant.
Israel opposes peaceful resolution of Mideast crisis with regard to Palestine state. Pursuing capitalist-imperialist path, Obama has long supported a two-state solution, but right-wing Israeli fanatic nuts believe that Trump’s election has buried the idea of a Palestinian state. Allowing a vote for Palestinian statehood — whether by withholding a veto or abstaining — would be a small step in helping translate thus far unimplemented US policy and guarantee that the new president will not be forced to bury the two-state solution whereby Palestine state comes into existence.
Instead of undertaking punitive measures against Israeli crimes against humanity, the Obama government has promised a supply of 10-year, $38 billion military aid package with a huge, up-to-date military arsenal to the essentially fascist Israel could only complicate the tension in Mideast. Obama has done this favor in spite of the fact that and Benjamin Netanyahu have not seen eye to eye on the Middle East conflict and the Iranian nuclear deal. President Trump could cancel the aid altogether to coerce Israel to abandon its terror techniques in Palestine and give up expansionist idea altogether.
While Israel continues to be in denial, Palestinian officials appear, however, to be accepting of the new reality, with President Mahmoud Abbas welcoming Trump’s election in a Nov. 9 message, also saying that he hopes a comprehensive peace will be achieved during his term. PLO Secretary Saeb Erekat reiterated the need for the new US leader to stay committed to the two-state solution. “We hope from the new US administration to translate talk about the two-state solution into a reality, because security, peace and stability in this region can only happen if the Israeli occupation that began in 1967 is defeated,” he said.
Hamas government in Gaza called on the president-elect to reconsider US policy toward the Palestinian cause. “The suffering of the Palestinian people is continuing because of biased, successive American administrations in favor of Israel,” the movement said in a statement released Nov. 11.
Humanity believes that US President Barack Obama should still use his remaining months in the White House to ensure that a UN Security Council resolution recommending the recognition of Palestine be permitted to pass. Obama could accomplish a number of goals with such a decision. It could be Obama’s gift to Middle East peace before leaving office on Jan. 20 when new incumbent Donald Trump takes power from him. Obama has the ability to instruct single-handedly his UN representative to support or abstain from a resolution that will become irrevocable once the UN Security Council passes it.
It is certain that President Trump would be able to make Palestine a soverign nation in a year or so and would not let the criminal regime in Israel attack Palestinians. It can’t be otherwise. However, if Trump also plays into the dirty Zionist hands, Trump would feel sorry later for his wrong decision to support the criminal and high fanatic Israeli regime.
Even Obama’s successor, Donald Trump under pressure from Israel and its agents in USA like Hillary Clinton, will not be able to reverse it mainly because he wants to establish Palestine and peaceful region in West Asia. Also, the Palestine state would have received international legitimacy. That would ensure transfer of power of sovereignty to Palestine government and withdrawal of Israeli forces and offices from Palestine territories. The borders of Palestine would be finally earmarked legally so that the Zionist military would end aggressor and expansionist wars in Palestine, its children won’t be killed by Israeli military any more.
Unless Palestinians obtain full membership of UN, Israel can resort to intermittent aggression, targeting children to quench its blood thirst. All mediatory efforts by USA and international community have filed because the top powers are not sincere. Fascist UNSC is not committed to world peace.
Passage of a Security Council resolution recommending a Palestinian state would seal a progressive legacy for Obama and help make up for his inability to reach a breakthrough in the Middle East conflict during his eight years in office.
The new US Congress under the Republican control could choose to punish Israel by withholding financial and military-technological support to the Jewish government. Censure of the settlements, however, would probably not elicit a strong reaction after Trump takes over. USA could increase the aid to Palestine to help rebuild the nation, destroyed by regular aggressions and terror attacks by Israel. .
Many in Israel think Netanyahu and Trump are ideological twins and so Netanyahu’s “peace process hands-off” message might probably meet a fertile ideological ground with the new regime.
First, recognition of Palestine by Trump’s USA and a condemnation of illegal Jewish settlements as international shame on the part of White House are the need of the time and a statement to the effect showcasing its genuine interest in peace would make the Mideast problem to get resolved soon.
Israel, however, does not believe trump would play to the Zionist fiddle.
UNSC, USA and EU should not let Israel decide the fate and destiny of Mideast by adding more terror goods into Israeli military. . It is important that before passing the baton to Trump, Obama round out his legacy by responding to the will of the Palestinian people by permitting a vote for the State of Palestine.
Both USA and its terror ally Israel must realize that Palestinians have the right to statehood and USA should help them obtain that right.
Establishment of Palestine state would make the region tension free, war free and world safe. Hopefully President Trump would realize it and work towards that objective.
Enough of blood bath in Palestine and Mideast! Entire globe is looking for a change in US polices towards neutrality, peace and prosperity in Palestine. Trump without any hesitation fulfill the dreams of Palestinians and humanity at large!
Iran unveils new negotiation strategy
While the West is pressuring Iran for a return to the Vienna nuclear talks, the top Iranian diplomat unveiled a new strategy on the talks that could reset the whole negotiation process.
The Iranian parliament held a closed meeting on Sunday at which Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian briefed the lawmakers on a variety of pressing issues including the situation around the stalled nuclear talks between Iran and world powers over reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The Iranian foreign ministry didn’t give any details about the session, but some lawmakers offered an important glimpse into the assessment Abdollahian gave to the parliament.
According to these lawmakers, the Iranian foreign ministry addressed many issues ranging from tensions with Azerbaijan to the latest developments in Iranian-Western relations especially with regard to the JCPOA.
On Azerbaijan, Abdollahian has warned Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev against falling into the trap set by Israel, according to Alireza Salimi, a member of the Iranian Parliament’s presiding board who attended the meeting. Salimi also said that the Iranian foreign minister urged Aliyev to not implicate himself in the “Americans’ complexed scheme.”
In addition to Azerbaijan, Abdollahian also addressed the current state of play between Iran and the West regarding the JCPOA.
“Regarding the nuclear talks, the foreign minister explicitly stated that the policy of the Islamic Republic is action for action, and that the Americans must show goodwill and honesty,” Salimi told Fars News on Sunday.
The remarks were in line with Iran’s oft-repeated stance on the JCPOA negotiations. What’s new is that the foreign minister determined Iran’s agenda for talks after they resume.
Salimi quoted Abdollahian as underlining that the United States “must certainly take serious action before the negotiations.”
In addition, the Iranian foreign minister said that Tehran intends to negotiate over what happened since former U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the JCPOA, not other issues.
By expanding the scope of negotiations, Abdollahian is highly likely to strike a raw nerve in the West. His emphasis on the need to address the developments ensuing the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in May 2018 could signal that the new government of President Ayatollah Seyed Ebrahim Raisi is not going to pick up where the previous government left.
This has been a major concern in European diplomatic circles in the wake of the change of administrations in Iran. In fact, the Europeans and the Biden administration have been, and continue to be, worried about two things in the aftermath of Ayatollah Raisi taking the reins in Tehran; one is he refusing to accept the progress made during six rounds of talks under his predecessor Hassan Rouhani. Second, the possibility that the new government of Ayatollah Raisi would refuse to return to Vienna within a certain period of time.
With Abdollahian speaking of negotiation over developments since Trump’s withdrawal, it seems that the Europeans will have to pray that their concerns would not come true.
Of course, the Iranian foreign ministry has not yet announced that how it would deal with a resumed negotiation. But the European are obviously concerned. Before his recent visit to Tehran to encourage it into returning to Vienna, Deputy Director of the EU Action Service Enrique Mora underlined the need to prick up talks where they left in June, when the last round of nuclear talks was concluded with no agreement.
“Travelling to Tehran where I will meet my counterpart at a critical point in time. As coordinator of the JCPOA, I will raise the urgency to resume #JCPOA negotiations in Vienna. Crucial to pick up talks from where we left last June to continue diplomatic work,” Mora said on Twitter.
Mora failed to obtain a solid commitment from his interlocutors in Tehran on a specific date to resume the Vienna talk, though Iran told him that it will continue talks with the European Union in the next two weeks.
Source: Tehran Times
Shaping US Middle East policy amidst failing states, failed democratization and increased activism
The future of US engagement in the Middle East hangs in the balance.
Two decades of forever war in Afghanistan and continued military engagement in Iraq and elsewhere in the region have prompted debate about what constitutes a US interest in the Middle East. China, and to a lesser degree Russia, loom large in the debate as America’s foremost strategic and geopolitical challenges.
Questions about US interests have also sparked discussion about whether the United States can best achieve its objectives by continued focus on security and military options or whether a greater emphasis on political, diplomatic, economic, and civil society tools may be a more productive approach.
The debate is coloured by a pendulum that swings from one extreme to the other. President Joe Biden has disavowed the notion of nation-building that increasingly framed the United States’ post-9/11 intervention in Afghanistan.
There is no doubt that the top-down nation-building approach in Afghanistan was not the way to go about things. It rested on policymaking that was informed by misleading and deceitful reporting by US military and political authorities and enabled a corrupt environment for both Afghans and Americans.
The lesson from Afghanistan may be that nation-building (to use a term that has become tainted for lack of a better word) has to be a process that is owned by the beneficiaries themselves while supported by external players from afar.
Potentially adopting that posture could help the Biden administration narrow the gap between its human rights rhetoric and its hard-nosed, less values-driven definition of US interests and foreign policy.
A cursory glance at recent headlines tells a tale of failed governance and policies, hollowed-out democracies that were fragile to begin with, legitimisation of brutality, fabrics of society being ripped apart, and an international community that grapples with how to pick up the pieces.
Boiled down to its essence, the story is the same whether it’s how to provide humanitarian aid to Afghanistan without recognising or empowering the Taliban or efforts to halt Lebanon’s economic and social collapse and descent into renewed chaos and civil war without throwing a lifeline to a discredited and corrupt elite.
Attempts to tackle immediate problems in Lebanon and Afghanistan by working through NGOs might be a viable bottom-up approach to the discredited top-down method.
If successful, it could provide a way of strengthening the voice of recent mass protests in Lebanon and Iraq that transcended the sectarianism that underlies their failed and flawed political structures. It would also give them ownership of efforts to build more open, pluralistic, and cohesive societies, a demand that framed the protests. Finally, it could also allow democracy to regain ground lost by failing to provide tangible progress.
This week’s sectarian fighting along the Green Line that separated Christian East from the Muslim West in Beirut during Lebanon’s civil war highlighted the risk of those voices being drowned out.
Yet, they reverberated loud and clear in the results of recent Iraqi parliamentary elections, even if a majority of eligible voters refrained from going to the polls.
“We never got the democracy we were promised, and were instead left with a grossly incompetent, highly corrupt and hyper-violent monster masquerading as a democracy and traumatising a generation,” commented Iraqi Middle East counterterrorism and security scholar Tallha Abdulrazaq who voted only once in his life in Iraq. That was in the first election held in 2005 after the 2003 US invasion. “I have not voted in another Iraqi election since.”
Mr. Abdulrazaq’s disappointment is part and parcel of the larger issues of nation-building, democracy promotion and provision of humanitarian aid that inevitably will shape the future US role in the Middle East in a world that is likely to be bi-or multi-polar.
Former US National Security Council and State Department official Martin Indyk argued in a recent essay adapted from a forthcoming book on Henry Kissinger’s Middle East diplomacy that the US policy should aim “to shape an American-supported regional order in which the United States is no longer the dominant player, even as it remains the most influential.”
Mr. Indyk reasoned that support for Israel and America’s Sunni Arab allies would be at the core of that policy. While in a world of realpolitik the United States may have few alternatives, the question is how alignment with autocracies and illiberal democracies would enable the United States to support a bottom-up process of social and political transition that goes beyond lip service.
That question is particularly relevant given that the Middle East is entering its second decade of defiance and dissent that demands answers to grievances that were not expressed in Mr. Kissinger’s time, at least not forcefully.
Mr. Kissinger was focused on regional balances of power and the legitimisation of a US-dominated order. “It was order, not peace, that Kissinger pursued because he believed that peace was neither an achievable nor even a desirable objective in the Middle East,” Mr. Indyk said, referring to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Mr. Indyk noted that in Mr. Kissinger’s mind the rules of a US-dominated order “would be respected only if they provided a sufficient sense of justice to a sufficient number of states. It did not require the satisfaction of all grievances… ‘just an absence of the grievances that would motivate an effort to overthrow the order’.”
The popular Arab revolts of 2011 that toppled the leaders of Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Yemen, even if their achievements were subsequently rolled back, and the mass protests of 2019 and 2020 that forced leaders of Sudan, Algeria, Iraq, and Lebanon to resign, but failed to fundamentally alter political and economic structures, are evidence that there is today a will to overthrow the order.
In his essay, Mr. Indyk acknowledges the fact that “across the region, people are crying out for accountable governments” but argues that “the United States cannot hope to meet those demands” even if “it cannot ignore them, either.”
Mr. Indyk may be right. Yet, the United States, with Middle East policy at an inflexion point, cannot ignore the fact that the failure to address popular grievances contributed significantly to the rise of violent Islamic militancy and ever more repressive and illiberal states in a region with a significant youth bulge that is no longer willing to remain passive and /or silent.
Pointing to the 600 Iraqi protesters that have been killed by security forces and pro-Iranian militias, Mr. Abdulrazaq noted in an earlier Al Jazeera op-ed that protesters were “adopting novel means of keeping their identities away from the prying eyes of security forces and powerful Shia militias” such as blockchain technology and decentralised virtual private networks.
“Unless they shoot down…internet-providing satellites, they will never be able to silence our hopes for democracy and accountability again. That is our dream,” Mr. Abdulrazzaq quoted Srinivas Baride, the chief technology officer of a decentralised virtual network favoured by Iraqi protesters, as saying.
Safar Barlek of the 21st Century: Erdogan the New Caliph
Since the American’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, it became clear that everyone is holding his breath. That is exactly what Recep Tayyip Erdogan is doing these days. Ten years have passed since his war on Syria; however, he has, so far, reached zero accomplishments towards his 2023 dreams. As a matter of fact, Erdogan is in the worst position ever. His dream of becoming the new Ottoman Caliph began to fade away.
If we want to understand what is going on in his mind, it is crucial to follow Gas and Oil pipelines: He actively participated in the war on Syria because Syrian President Bashar al-Assad refused to betray his Russian and Iranian friends by allowing the Qatari gas pipelines to pass through Syria then Turkey to reach Europe. Such a step would have empowered Turkey, opened a wide door for it to enter the gas trade industry, and would become the American’s firmed grip around the Iranian and Russian necks.
He saw the opportunity getting closer as the war on Syria was announced. He imagined himself as the main player with the two strongest powers globally: the U.S. and Europe. Hence, his chance to fulfil the 1940s Turkish- American plan to occupy northern Syria, mainly Aleppo and Idlib, where he could continue all the way to al-Mussel in Iraq, during the chaos of the futile war on ISIS seemed to be reachable. By reaching his aim, Erdogan will be able to open a corridor for the Qatari gas pipelines and realize the dream of retrieving the legacy of the old Turkish Petroleum Company, which was seized to exist after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1925.
Consequently, Erdogan announced his desire to establish a 15 km deep buffer zone along the Syrian borders and inside the Syrian territory. This is in fact, an occupation declaration, which will definitely enable him to reach the Syrian oil and gas fields. He even tried to offer the Russians a compromise that he would like to share managing these fields with them after Donald Trump’s announcement of withdrawing the American troops from Syria in 2018.
It was clear since the year 2019, after attacking the Kurds in east-north Syria, that he has lost the Americans and European support in the region. Especially after inking the Russian missiles S400 deal against the American’s will. Then he supported Azerbaijan against Armenia, threatening both Iranian and Russian security.
The situation was repelled with Iran when he recited a poem on the 11th of December 2020, which could have provoked the feelings of the Azeris and incited them to secede from Iran. On the 28th of February 2021, he even accused Iran of harboring the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which Turkey considers a terrorist organization.
Now the situation is escalating again. A few days ago, the Iranian Army’s Ground Force launched the “Fatih Khyber” maneuvers in the northwest of the country near the border with Azerbaijan, with the participation of several Armored Brigade, 11th Artillery Group, Drones group, and 433rd Military Engineering Group, with the support of airborne helicopters. A major maneuver that indicates there is an escalation between Iran and Azerbaijan, which is taking place under Turkish auspices. The escalation is an attempt to threaten Iran’s security from the north.
When Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the Iranian nuclear scientist, was assassinated at the end of last year, the American newspaper New York Times described the deed as “the most brilliant work of the Mossad”. At that time, many resources revealed that the executors of the operation passed to Iran through Azerbaijan and were situated in Turkey for a while before moving. And now Iran has great concerns because of Azerbaijan hostess of active Israeli and American intelligence members.
As Iran is going now to another stage of nuclear talks with G5+1, it is an opportunity for the American and Turkish interests to meet again, as Erdogan is pushing towards achieving a victory in the region, and the Americans are trying to create trouble to distract it. We know what the Americans want, but what matters here is what Erdogan wants.
Erdogan wants to be a bigger participant in the Azeri oil industry. He wants to push Iran into aiding him to give him more space in the Syrian lands. He wants to be given a chance to save face and be granted some kind of victory in his “War on Syria”. It is his wars that he is leading in Libya, Sudan, the Mediterranean Sea, and now in Afghanistan and Azerbaijan. Erdogan was preparing himself to become the first of the new coming rein of the new Ottoman Sultanate in 2023.
2023 is the date for two important occasions; the first is the Turkish presidential elections. And the second is the end of the Treaty of Lausanne 1923. Erdogan had high hopes that he would be able to accomplish a lot before the designated date. In involving Turkey in every trouble in the Arab country since the “Arab Spring” had begun. He has an agenda in each of them, from Syria to Libya, to the Mediterranean Sea, to where he seeks to preserve the Turkish right for expansion.
Erdogan believed in building double alliances between Russia and Iran from one side and the United States through Turkey’s presence in NATO from the other, he can manipulate everyone to achieve his goal in Syria and secure the Buffer Zone. He started a policy of Turkification in northern Syria, which is against international law in occupied regions and countries. In addition, as he is still politically maneuvering to reach this goal, he is becoming more like a bull chasing a red carpet. He is backstabbing everyone, even his allies in Nusra.
Erdogan, the paranoid, has used every possible method to rally aggregations against local governments and authorities in each country as he built his alliances. In Syria, he played on sectarian differences to rally Sunnis and, in particular, on Muslim Brotherhood groups to build alliances against the current Syrian government. He imported terrorists from al-Nusra, armed them, and ideologically manipulated terrorists from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and the Chinese Xinjiang, into fighting in Syria in the name of Islam against the Alawites “regime”. He represented himself as the protector of Sunnis. In order to justify bombarding the Kurds, he was playing on nationalistic feelings.
In Libya, he played on empowering the Muslim Brotherhoods against other atheist groups, as he rates them. He empowered the al-Wifaq government along with the Americans to pave the way to dividing Libya, where the dirty international game almost tore the country apart using terrorist groups financially backed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey, i.e. Qatar.
In Lebanon, he presented himself as the protector of the injustice Sunnis. Turkish intelligence paid around four million dollars to regroup Sunnis in Said and Tripoli. The same thing was going on with Hamas in Palestine in the name of the freedom of the Palestinians and their fight against Israel. In the Arab countries, Erdogan worked hard to be designated as the new Muslim leader and was very careful not to be perceived as a Turk but as a Muslim. And now the same game is going in Azerbaijan.
Erdogan’s interference in Azerbaijan does not fall out of the American expected Turkish role. A few days ago, a congress member praised the important role Turkey is playing within NATO. It is not a language of reconciliation; it is a language of playing on Erdogan’s ego. Therefore, it is only fair to question the Turkish role in Azerbaijan, in particular to the relation between the two mentioned countries and Israel.
Iran has been dealing with the two countries with tolerance, as neighboring countries, particularly Turkey, who is playing in this case on the nationalistic feelings of the Azeris in Iran to start trouble, in the least expression. It is clear, if the situation escalates with Azerbaijan, Iran would be walking through land mines. Therefore, it needs to be carefully leading its diplomatic negotiations. On the other hand, Iran knows, but it needs to acknowledge that as long as Turkey occupies one meter in northern Syrian, the region will never know peace and security. The first step to get the Americans out of Iraq and Syria will be to cut Erdogan’s feet in Syria, once and for all.
In leading his quest for victory, Erdogan moved the terrorist around the region. Now he is filling Azerbaijan with these mercenary terrorists from the Arab region and center of Asia, just like the Ottoman when they dragged the compulsorily recruited soldiers from their villages and houses from all over the Arab countries to fight their war in the Baltic region. A dream that needs to put an end to it. The Syrians believe that it ends with ending the Turkish occupation in Idlib. However, it is important that their friends believe that too.
*The Safar Barlek was the mobilization effected by the late Ottoman Empire during the Second Balkan War of 1913 and World War I from 1914 to 1918, which involved the forced conscription of Lebanese, Palestinian, Syrian, and Kurdish men to fight on its behalf.
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