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State of Palestine is likely to become reality under Trump

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[yt_dropcap type=”square” font=”” size=”14″ color=”#000″ background=”#fff” ] H [/yt_dropcap]umanity scurvies on hopes! With a new regime in place in USA, hopes are indeed very about the feasibility of establishment of much delayed Palestine state whose lands Israel occupies with US baking. Now all eyes are on the progress and process of establishing Palestine state.

Palestinians have, after a great deal of collective suffering under the Zionist military brutality for years, achieved last year their first objective of becoming a defacto member of UN which is indeed the most positive event in life of humanity in recent years. Notwithstanding all strenuous efforts by Israel, Mossad and American Jewish lobbyist lords, including those in Neocons that made the White House stand solid behind Israel brutally targeting the besieged Palestinians, PLO (PA) has managed to win the UN membership, though without any voting power but of course would also be realized sooner than later.

After a somewhat neutralist twist in Obama era without any sincere concern for the plight of people of Palestine, world expects a totally positive approach from the new Trump government that replaces a Zionist regime effectively controlled by Hillary and Neocons, totally committed to the cause of expansionist Israeli genocides inside Palestine.

As it stands, Palestine is a UN member as a state under occupation. President Obama did not make any effort to make Palestine a soverign state mainly because a prominent Zionist American Hillary Clinton, swearing by Zionist expansionist ideology, did not let that happen. Palestinians continued to suffer as Israel began targeting civilians, children and women in Gaza Strip which it wants to reoccupy. Yet neither Obama nor Hillary has any sympathy for the Palestinian children getting killed by Israeli military. All that seemed worrying them is the slow progress in the Zionist expansionist criminal operations inside Palestine. Obama has added more money and terror goods, technology to Israeli system, making it remain the formidable military plus nuclear power of West Asia.

With President-elect Donald Trump seeking peace in Mideast, Netanyahu wants to start out on the right foot during a meeting with President Trump that could take place at the end of March 2017 when this hawk speaks at the annual conference of powerful Jews the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). He has instructed his diplomatic right-hand man (lawyer Yitzhak Molcho), the Israeli National Security Council and the Foreign Ministry to prepare policy papers for such a meeting in the Oval Office. In addition, the Israeli Embassy in Washington has been talking to Trump’s advisers and with new senators of both parties in order to prepare the encounter.

Zionist expansionist terrorism

And Israel thrives at the cost of Palestinians, due to foolishness and arrogance of US presidents. The joint US-Israeli arrogance is the cause for the continuous suffering of the besieged Palestinians whose lands are being under brutal control of joint terror blockades of Israel-Egyptian regimes.

In fact, Israel opposes world peace, it does not seek peace with Palestinians, it has no idea about a peace deal with Palestine which would eventually deny and end aggression and genocides, it still wants to continue brutal occupation and crimes against humanity. It however talks about direct bogus talks with Palestinians to impress the western powers in order to get military and technology aid.

Not happy with foreign powers taking interest in Mideast peace, Israel has rejected taking part in an international peace conference advocated by France. On Nov. 7, Jacob Nagel, Israel’s national security adviser, told French peace envoy Pierre Vimont that Israel would not participate in any international conference, considering such a forum an international diktat. It wants only the support for its brutalities in Palestine and Mideast. Israel instead claims it wants only direct but bogus talks with the Palestinians in order to prolong occupational crimes.

One of the reasons Israelis were so involved in this election campaign was undoubtedly is the fear that if Hillary loses that won’t be in its terror interests and also the knowledge that the results would have far-reaching political and diplomatic ramifications for Israel. When most commentators and polls in the United States predicted an almost certain victory for Clinton, the Israeli media focused on the anticipated implications for Netanyahu’s right-wing government. Obviously, Trump’s victory has upset Israeli calculations.

Israel does not distinguish among US presidents in terms of support for Zionist fascism and fanaticism and has taken their support for granted. The climax came when Trump became the “messiah” of the Israeli right based on his election promises — to relocate the US Embassy to Jerusalem, for instance. No one in Israel has the slightest idea whether the 45th president of the USA will show any interest whatsoever in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, if he will also turn a blind eye to construction in the settlements or decide to move the American Embassy to Jerusalem. Israel is damns sure it can play the new president as well as it wants.

However, many in Israel and USA think Trump cannot be different towards Israel and he would also let Israel continue with its expansionist and genocide policies. Tel Aviv pins all hopes on US/NATO wars in Arab/Islamic world so that its occupational infrastructure is intact in Palestine and can continue to slaughter the Palestinians at will.

Earlier, Israel had not attached importance to US poll for too long after the Zionist state came into being. Until 2012, Israelis showed no exceptional interest in the US election but now the issue of illegal settlements has made Israeli leaders nervous as a new hawk takes power in Washington. Jews realized that the social changes, making political changes, in Israel’s strongest and most important ally USA would impact them directly too. However, a smart US educated Netanyahu did not repeat his 2012 mistake and made a point of staying out of the election — publicly and officially , at least — the “historic” taboo had already been shattered.

Although the Zionist leaders “proudly” say now that the two state solution option is gone with the election of Trump, Israelis do reel from US election as their favorite candidate Hillary Clinton bite the dust at the dustings. On the night the votes were being counted, the heated, emotional debates that erupted between Israelis watching the American drama unfold made it seem as though the election was for the Israeli Knesset, not the White House. Israel’s leading journalists could not hide their shock and disappointment at Democrat Hillary Clinton’s defeat.

Obama continues with Zionist US policy

President Obama inherited entire legacy of previous presidents in policies and   practices especially in Mideast. He extended terror wars to Libya and added more troops to Afghanistan. Obama accelerated terror wars of Bushdom, killed thousands of Muslims in Mideast and added more terror goods to Israel.

Israel and Trump’s pro-Israel supporters are already sending signals to Obama to forgo any kind of action at the United Nations. International political observers are worried that the newly elected US president might, on instruction from Israeli regime cum Jewish US lobbyists, abandon the Middle East or alternatively make extremist decisions. Israel has been pushing Washington to h as enacting his campaign promise to move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in Palestine.

For the skeptics, Obama making a controversial decision on the Middle East conflict would not be easy even though freed, as he is, from election shackles. There are skeptics who think he will not have the courage to make a bold decision as a lame duck in the White House.

Like India occupies Jammu Kashmir on the falsified strength of a possible fake document, Israel also takes all precautions to see noting obstructs the brutal occupation of neighboring nation Palestine without even fake documents. USA, UNSC and NATO are the strength of the Israeli regime, its fascism

The usual ploy of “anti-Semitism” tricks won’t work any longer

Israel lectures US presidents

Occasionally one gets the feeling if Israel controls US president.

For too long USA has pursued not just pro-Israeli policies but also let itself controlled by Israel in policy matters. Israeli relations received a setback during the Obama era although he also   provided sumptuous aid in cash and arms and technology to appease hardcore Zionists in USA and Israel. Israeli leader address the US Congress and deliver advises to Americans.

Israeli hardline PM Benjamin Netanyahu has actively and discretely begun preparing for his first meeting with the next US president. He is counting the days until the end of President Barack Obama’s presidency. Their relationship was in trouble beginning with their first meeting, when Netanyahu tried in vain to convince Obama about the legitimacy of the settlements, to the unprecedented clash between the two leaders when Netanyahu took sides with the Republicans in Congress on the Iran deal.

During his forthcoming meeting with President Trump, Netanyahu would tell Trump that Palestinian cause problems for USA and regional peace cannot be solved by making Palestine an independent nation. He wishes to remove the resolution of the Palestinian issue from the list of elements necessary for regional stability and convince the new president that fundamentalist terror is the root problem of the region (and for world stability for that matter). Netanyahu will argue that the Islamic State, Hezbollah and Hamas are the real enemies of both Israel and pragmatic Arab countries. Thus, the region should align around the battle against Iranian-sponsored terror, not the Palestinian statehood issue.

Hawk Netanyahu as usual is eager to give along lecture to Trump on international politics with special reference to Mideast of which he as Israeli PM claims to be an expert, and intends to persuade the new president to cooperate closely with Israel on Iranian compliance with the agreement. He will encourage American deterrence against Iran’s long-range missile development and the sponsoring of regional and international terrorism. American sanctions against Tehran must therefore remain a realistic option

Netanyahu blames it all on the personality of the outgoing president, and he does not perceive this as a result of a fundamental interest clash between the two countries. Netanyahu, said the official, believes he can get along well with Trump.

In Washington, Netanyahu will not allow President Trump discuss Palestine issue or Israeli genocides. He obviously would make the case for fighting terror first and addressing Palestinians last, office and the Israeli Embassy are preparing for a media blitz to reiterate his view of the Israeli cause. His government and the Israeli Embassy are preparing for a media blitz to reiterate his view of the Israeli cause.

In short, Netanyahu would like the next president to embrace and adopt Israel’s “no” on the Palestinian issue. In parallel, Netanyahu is, as Israeli policy, preparing to galvanize the organized American Jewish community to his policy aims vis-a-vis the next regime. The Israeli Embassy in Washington is in contact with US Jewish organizations that are able to influence the administration and Congress, primarily the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations and AIPAC. The new US Congress will be the main focus of these organizations in order to spread Netanyahu’s gospel.

Netanyahu’s third issue would be preventing American and international pressure on Israel on the following points: 1, Illegal colonies construction and USA must express its opposition to any Israeli settlement expansion more privately than under Obama: 1. Public assurances that the United States will veto any UN Security Council resolution critical of Israel or setting terms of reference for a two-state solution process. USA must as before veto any UN Security Council resolution critical of Israel or setting terms of reference for a two-state solution process.2. USA has to foil any EU member state initiative on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, such as the French initiative on a two-state solution.

One has no idea as to what would President Trump tell Netanyahu.

Task before Trump presidency

President elects Donald Trump’s statement that he would end war between Israel and Palestinians is the first ever such intension for peace in Mideast but has been despised and not welcomed in Israel. Israel wants every president to carry forward the policy of genocides in Palestine. Even the Zionist left is shocked and terrified. Never before has Israeli media coverage of an American election been so intense and so involved.

The media globally described the victory of Trump against the powerful Hillary Clinton as establishment candidate as “shock win” because every step was ensured for the victory of Hillary as the first ever woman president to prolong the terror occupation of Muslim countries, invade more Muslim countries, support the expansionist drive of Zionist criminal regime, etc.

Of course, the Trump win was remarkable, though unexpected by majority of corporate regimes and their media outlets across the world. That means Trump needs his act together and launch anti-state terror and anti-occupation moves systematically and honestly. There was also a clear sense from their reports that most reporters and analysts preferred the Democratic candidate.

President Trump should realize that he has arrived on international scene at a critical juncture as state terrorism has turned ugly and as fascist gang capitalist nations has become arrogant.

Israel opposes peaceful resolution of Mideast crisis with regard to Palestine state. Pursuing capitalist-imperialist path, Obama has long supported a two-state solution, but right-wing Israeli fanatic nuts believe that Trump’s election has buried the idea of a Palestinian state. Allowing a vote for Palestinian statehood — whether by withholding a veto or abstaining — would be a small step in helping translate thus far unimplemented US policy and guarantee that the new president will not be forced to bury the two-state solution whereby Palestine state comes into existence.

Instead of undertaking punitive measures against Israeli crimes against humanity, the Obama government has promised a supply of 10-year, $38 billion military aid package with a huge, up-to-date military arsenal to the essentially fascist Israel could only complicate the tension in Mideast. Obama has done this favor in spite of the fact that and Benjamin Netanyahu have not seen eye to eye on the Middle East conflict and the Iranian nuclear deal. President Trump could cancel the aid altogether to coerce Israel to abandon its terror techniques in Palestine and give up expansionist idea altogether.

While Israel continues to be in denial, Palestinian officials appear, however, to be accepting of the new reality, with President Mahmoud Abbas welcoming Trump’s election in a Nov. 9 message, also saying that he hopes a comprehensive peace will be achieved during his term. PLO Secretary Saeb Erekat reiterated the need for the new US leader to stay committed to the two-state solution. “We hope from the new US administration to translate talk about the two-state solution into a reality, because security, peace and stability in this region can only happen if the Israeli occupation that began in 1967 is defeated,” he said.

Hamas government in Gaza called on the president-elect to reconsider US policy toward the Palestinian cause. “The suffering of the Palestinian people is continuing because of biased, successive American administrations in favor of Israel,” the movement said in a statement released Nov. 11.

Observations

Humanity believes that US President Barack Obama should still use his remaining months in the White House to ensure that a UN Security Council resolution recommending the recognition of Palestine be permitted to pass. Obama could accomplish a number of goals with such a decision. It could be Obama’s gift to Middle East peace before leaving office on Jan. 20 when new incumbent Donald Trump takes power from him. Obama has the ability to instruct single-handedly his UN representative to support or abstain from a resolution that will become irrevocable once the UN Security Council passes it.

It is certain that President Trump would be able to make Palestine a soverign nation in a year or so and would not let the criminal regime in Israel attack Palestinians. It can’t be otherwise. However, if Trump also plays into the dirty Zionist hands, Trump would feel sorry later for his wrong decision to support the criminal and high fanatic Israeli regime.

Even Obama’s successor, Donald Trump under pressure from Israel and its agents in USA like Hillary Clinton, will not be able to reverse it mainly because he wants to establish Palestine and peaceful region in West Asia. Also, the Palestine state would have received international legitimacy. That would ensure transfer of power of sovereignty to Palestine government and withdrawal of Israeli forces and offices from Palestine territories. The borders of Palestine would be finally earmarked legally so that the Zionist military would end aggressor and expansionist wars in Palestine, its children won’t be killed by Israeli military any more.

Unless Palestinians obtain full membership of UN, Israel can resort to intermittent aggression, targeting children to quench its blood thirst. All mediatory efforts by USA and international community have filed because the top powers are not sincere. Fascist UNSC is not committed to world peace.

Passage of a Security Council resolution recommending a Palestinian state would seal a progressive legacy for Obama and help make up for his inability to reach a breakthrough in the Middle East conflict during his eight years in office.

The new US Congress under the Republican control could choose to punish Israel by withholding financial and military-technological support to the Jewish government. Censure of the settlements, however, would probably not elicit a strong reaction after Trump takes over. USA could increase the aid to Palestine to help rebuild the nation, destroyed by regular aggressions and terror attacks by Israel. .

Many in Israel think Netanyahu and Trump are ideological twins and so Netanyahu’s “peace process hands-off” message might probably meet a fertile ideological ground with the new regime.

First, recognition of Palestine by Trump’s USA and a condemnation of illegal Jewish settlements as international shame on the part of White House are the need of the time and a statement to the effect showcasing its genuine interest in peace would make the Mideast problem to get resolved soon.

Israel, however, does not believe trump would play to the Zionist fiddle.

UNSC, USA and EU should not let Israel decide the fate and destiny of Mideast by adding more terror goods into Israeli military. . It is important that before passing the baton to Trump, Obama round out his legacy by responding to the will of the Palestinian people by permitting a vote for the State of Palestine.

Both USA and its terror ally Israel must realize that Palestinians have the right to statehood and USA should help them obtain that right.

Establishment of Palestine state would make the region tension free, war free and world safe. Hopefully President Trump would realize it and work towards that objective.

Enough of blood bath in Palestine and Mideast! Entire globe is looking for a change in US polices towards neutrality, peace and prosperity in Palestine. Trump without any hesitation fulfill the dreams of Palestinians and humanity at large!

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Middle East

Iranians Will Boycott Iran Election Farce

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Iran and elections have not been two synonymous terms. A regime whose constitution is based on absolute rule of someone who is considered to be God’s representative on earth, highest religious authority, morality guide, absolute ruler, and in one word Big Brother (or Vali Faqih), would hardly qualify for a democracy or a place where free or fair elections are held. But when you are God’s rep on earth you are free to invent your own meanings for words such as democracy, elections, justice, and human rights. It comes with the title. And everyone knows the fallacy of “presidential elections” in Iran. Most of all, the Iranian public know it as they have come to call for an almost unanimous boycott of the sham elections.

The boycott movement in Iran is widespread, encompassing almost all social and political strata of Iranian society, even some factions of the regime who have now decided it is time to jump ship. Most notably, remnants of what was euphemistically called the Reformist camp in Iran, have now decided to stay away from the phony polls. Even “hardline” former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad realizes the extent of the regime’s woes and has promised that he will not be voting after being duly disqualified again from participating by supreme leader’s Guardian Council.

So after 42 years of launching a reformist-hardliner charade to play on the West’s naivety, Khamenei’s regime is now forced to present its one and true face to the world: Ebrahim Raisi, son of the Khomeinist ideology, prosecutor, interrogator, torturer, death commission judge, perpetrator of the 1988 massacre of political prisoners, chief inquisitionist, and favorite of Ali Khamenei.

What is historic and different about this presidential “election” in Iran is precisely what is not different about it. It took the world 42 years to cajole Iran’s medieval regime to step into modernity, change its behavior, embrace universal human rights and democratic governance, and treat its people and its neighbors with respect. What is shocking is that this whole process is now back at square one with Ebrahim Raisi, a proven mass murderer who boasts of his murder spree in 1988, potentially being appointed as president.

With Iran’s regime pushing the envelope in launching proxy wars on the United States in Iraq, on Saudi Arabia in Yemen, and on Israel in Gaza and Lebanon, and with a horrendous human rights record that is increasingly getting worse domestically, what is the international community, especially the West, going to do? What is Norway’s role in dealing with this crisis and simmering crises to come out of this situation?

Europe has for decades based its foreign policy on international cooperation and the peaceful settlement of disputes, and the promotion of human rights and democratic principles. The International community must take the lead in bringing Ebrahim Raisi to an international court to account for the massacre he so boastfully participated in 1988 and all his other crimes he has committed to this day.

There are many Iranian refugees who have escaped the hell that the mullahs have created in their beautiful homeland and who yearn to one day remake Iran in the image of a democratic country that honors human rights. These members of the millions-strong Iranian Diaspora overwhelmingly support the boycott of the sham election in Iran, and support ordinary Iranians who today post on social media platforms videos of the Mothers of Aban (mothers of protesters killed by regime security forces during the November 2019 uprising) saying, “Our vote is for this regime’s overthrow.” Finally, after 42 years, the forbidden word of overthrow is ubiquitous on Iranian streets with slogans adorning walls calling for a new era and the fall of this regime.

Europe should stand with the Iranian Resistance and people to call for democracy and human rights in Iran and it should lead calls for accountability for all regime leaders, including Ebrahim Raisi, and an end to a culture of impunity for Iran’s criminal rulers.

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Middle East

Powershift in Knesset: A Paradigm of Israel’s Political Instability

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The dynamics of the Middle East are changing faster than anyone ever expected. For instance, no sage mind ever expected Iran to undergo a series of talks with the US and European nations to negotiate sanctions and curb its nuclear potential. And certainly, no political pundit could have predicted a normalization of diplomacy between Israel and a handful of Arab countries. The shocker apparently doesn’t end there. The recent shift in Israeli politics is a historic turnaround; a peculiar outcome of the 11-day clash. To probe, early June, a pack of eight opposition parties reached a coalition agreement to establish Israel’s 36th government and oust Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. While the political impasse has partly subsided, neither the 12-year prime minister is feeble nor is the fragile opposition strong enough to uphold an equilibrium.

Mr. Netanyahu currently serves as the caretaker prime minister of Israel. While the charges of corruption inhibited his drive in the office, he was responsible to bring notable achievements for Israel in the global diplomatic missions. Mr. Netanyahu, since assuming office in 2009, has bagged several diplomatic victories; primarily in reference to the long-standing conflict with Palestine and by extension, the Arab world. He managed to persuade former US President Donald J. Trump to shift the American embassy from Tel Aviv to the contentious city of Jerusalem. Furthermore, he managed to strike off the Palestinian mission in Washington whilst gaining success in severing US from the nuclear agreement with Iran. To the right-wing political gurus, Mr. Netanyahu stood as a symbolic figure to project the aspirations of the entire rightest fraction.

However, the pegs turned when Mr. Netanyahu refused to leave the office while facing a corruption trial. What he deemed as a ‘Backdoor Coup Attempt’ was rather criticized by his own base as a ruse of denial. By denying the charges and desecrating the judges hearing his case, Mr. Netanyahu started to undercut the supremacy of law. While he still had enough support to float above water, he lost the whelming support of the rightest faction which resulted in the most unstable government and four inconclusive elections in the past two years.

While Mr. Netanyahu was given the baton earlier by President Reuven Rivlin, he failed to convince his bedfellow politicians to join the rightest agenda. Moreover, Mr. Netanyahu probably hoped to regain support by inciting a head-on collision with the Palestinians. The scheme backfired as along with the collapse of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, the tremors overtook Israel’s own Arab-Jewish cities resulting in mass chaos. The burning of Mosques and local Synagogues was hardly the expectation. Thus, both the raucous sentiment pervading the streets of Israel as well as the unstable nature of the Netanyahu-government led the rightest parties to switch sides.

As Mr. Netanyahu failed to convince a coalition government, the task was handed to Mr. Yair Lapid, a centrist politician. While the ideologies conflicted in the coalition he tried to forge, his counterparts, much like him, preferred to sideline the disputes in favor of dethroning Netanyahu. Mr. Lapid joined hands with a pool of political ideologies, the odd one being the conservative Yamina party led by the veteran politician, Mr. Naftali Bennett. While Mr. Lapid has been a standard-bearer for secular Israelis, Mr. Bennett has been a stout nationalist, being the standard-bearer for the rightest strata. To add oil to the fire, the 8-party coalition also includes an Arab Islamist party, Raam. A major conflict of beliefs and motivations.

Although the coalition has agreed to focus on technocratic issues and compromise on the ideological facets, for the time being, both the rightest and the leftish parties would be under scrutiny to justify the actions of the coalition as a whole. Mr. Bennett would be enquired about his take on the annexation of occupied West Bank, an agenda vocalized by him during his alliance with Mr. Netanyahu. However, as much as he opposes the legitimacy of the Palestinian state, he would have to dim his narrative to avoid a fissure in the already fragile coalition. Similarly, while the first independent Arab group is likely to assume decision-making in the government for the first time, the mere idea of infuriating Mr. Bennett strikes off any hope of representation and voice of the Arabs in Israel.

Now Mr. Netanyahu faces a choice to defer the imminent vote of confidence in Knesset whilst actively persuading the rightest politicians to abandon the coalition camp. His drive has already picked momentum as he recently deemed the election as the ‘Biggest Fraud in the History of Israeli Politics’. Furthermore, he warned the conservatives of a forthcoming leftist regime, taking a hit on Naftali colluding with a wide array of leftist ideologies. The coalition is indeed fragile, yet survival of coalition would put an end to Netanyahu and his legacy while putting Naftali and then Lapid in the office. However, the irony of the situation is quite obvious – a move from one rightest to the other. A move from one unstable government to a lasting political instability in Israel.

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Middle East

The Gaza War

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Destruction in Gaza following an Israeli strike in May 2021. UNOCHA/Mohammad Libed

On May 22, 2021, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei’s website, posted a congratulatory message from one of the Hamas group’s leaders, Ziad Nakhaleh. In his message, Ziad Nakhaleh addresses Khamenei and says, “Qasem Soleimani’s friends and brothers, especially Ismail Ghani (Iran’s IRGC commander) and his colleagues, led this battle and were present with us during our recent conflict with Israel. … We pray for the preservation of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its brave soldiers.”

Since the regime’s establishment 42 years ago, Iran has been instrumental in inflicting war and chaos regionally. When Iran finds itself cornered and entangled with its internal problems or facing an impasse, a war or bloody conflict gets ignited by the regime to divert the Iranian people’s attention. This undeclared policy of the Iranian regime frees itself from the most pressing internal issues, even temporarily.

Today’s Iranian society is like a barrel of gunpowder ready to ignite. Last year, the Iranian parliament declared that more than 60 percent of Iranians live below the poverty line. According to the media close to the regime, close to 80% of the population below the poverty line this year. It is worth mentioning that Iran is one of the top 10 wealthiest countries globally, despite the challenges of the current sanctions.

This poverty is mainly the result of rampant institutionalized government corruption. According to Qalibaf, the current speaker of Iran’s parliament, only 4 percent of the population is prosperous, and the rest are poor and hungry. The two uprisings of 2017 and mid-November 2019 that surprised the regime were caused mainly by extreme poverty and high inflation. The regime survived the above widespread uprisings by opening direct fire at the innocent protestors, killing more than 1500 people. There is no longer any legitimacy for the regime domestically and internationally.

The explosive barrel of the Iranian discontent is about to burst at any given moment. To delay such social eruption, Khamenei banned the import of COVID-19 vaccines from the US, Britain, and France, hoping the people will be occupied with the virus and forget about their miserable living conditions.

On the other hand, the Iranian regime is in the midst of new negotiations with the western countries regarding its nuclear program. These negotiations may force the regime to abandon its nuclear plans that have cost billions of dollars, its terrorist activities in the region, and its ballistic missiles stockpile. This retreat will inevitably facilitate the growth and spread of the uprisings and social unrest across Iran.

The Deadlock of the Regime

The regime is facing an election that could ignite the barrel of gunpowder of the Iranian society. In 1988, when Khamenei wanted to announce Ahmadinejad as the winner of the presidential ballot boxes but faced opposition from former Prime Minister Mousavi. Widespread demonstrations were ignited. The same scenario is repeating itself in this year’s presidential election, where Khamenei intends to announce Raisi as the next president of Iran. There is a legitimate fear that demonstrations will ignite once again.

To avoid the happening of the same experience, Khamenei is forced to make an important decision. Like any other dictator, he pursues a policy of contraction during these challenging and crucial times, deciding to favor those loyal to him and his policies. Khamenei needs a uniform and decisive government to exert maximum repression on the Iranian people.

By disqualifying the former president (Ahmadinejad), the current vice president (Jahangiri), and most importantly, his current adviser and speaker of the two parliaments (Larijani), he has cut loose a large part of his regime. One way or another, Khamenei’s contraction policy is going to weaken his grip on power.

On the other hand, the Iranian regime must comply with the West’s demand for nuclear talks. In 2021, the political landscape is entirely different from 2015 in the balance of regional and global forces. The regime’s regional influence in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria has been severely weakened.

There is an explosive situation inside Iran. The resistance units spread throughout Iran after the 2019 uprising and have rapidly increased in recent months. They are spreading the message of separation of religion from the government, plus equality between men and women in a society where women do not have the right to be elected as president or a minister. The resistance units call themselves supporters of Maryam Rajavi, the Iranian regime’s sworn enemy. These units can direct a massive flood of people’s anger towards the Supreme Leader’s establishments with every spark and explosion.

Khamenei wanted to force the West to lift all sanctions and demonstrate a show of force within Iran and the region by initiating the Gaza war. The Gaza war was intended to divert the attention from Khamenei’s decisions on Iran’s presidential election. In this situation, the regime wanted to break its presidential deadlock by firing rockets through Hamas and carrying out a massacre in Israel and Palestine.

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