[yt_dropcap type=”square” font=”” size=”14″ color=”#000″ background=”#fff” ] T [/yt_dropcap]he two major non-Arab countries Iran and Turkey have the significant and most populated geographical locations in the region. From a historical perspective, it is clear that both of them have long shared similarities and differences regarding religion, national identity, populations, energy factor and etc.
Both of them have a strong sense of national identity and also were the homeland of different historical civilizations. The one of the major difference is that since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, “velayat e-faqih” as a prominent doctrine has been implemented in the government system of Iran. On the other hand, Iran is a predominantly Shia majority and Turkey is major Sunni-based country. Another major difference between them is based on energy factor. Today, the crucial aspect of Turkey and Iran relations is energy factor. Since the beginning of the relations in energy in the 1990s, the glaring differences between them in the energy sector have influenced their relations and resulted in the close cooperation between them. Apparently, the relations in the field of energy commenced in 1996 with the signing of the agreement on natural gas amid the Welfare Party Leader of Turkey Necmettin Erbakan’ visit to Tehran. The natural gas agreement envisaged the export of 4 bcm of natural gas in 2002 and of 10 bcm in 2007 from Iran to Turkey within the period of 25 years. However, this volume was never reached to the capacity of 10 bcm due to different kinds of reasons, especially the coercive diplomacy of the U.S, the economic sanctions lessened the export of natural gas to Turkey at the expected volume and only 6 bcm of natural gas was delivered to Turkey during the sanction period. To date, Iranian gas has been really important for Turkey in terms of economic development, its domestic needs, and energy demands. Because of the fact that Iran has sufficiently proven crude oil and gas resources in the Gulf region, in contrary, Turkey holds limited number of oil and gas reservoirs and these resources are not able to provide the both economic and domestic demands of Turkey adequately and thus, heavily depends on foreign supplies.* Therefore, Iranian gas is really meaningful for industry and for residential heating in Eastern Anatolia.
Apart from the oil and gas sectors, the electricity trade between them is really important. Iran and Turkey have agreed to develop their electricity generation sufficiently. For instance, in 2014, Iran exported 2,252 GWH electricity to Turkey that constituted 1,1% of that year’s total electricity source. Energy as a solid rock of economic relations between Turkey and Iran exhibits itself as the main provider of economic growth. The relations between Turkey and Iran can be characterized in some reasons:
1.The role of Turkey as a transit route between North and South, East and West. The main role of Turkey would be really important for the rational and secure transportation of Iran’s natural oil and gas resources to Europe via Turkey;*
2.The growing massive dependence of Europe on natural gas resources force the European countries to seek for new alternative energy supplies and countries and strives to decrease its natural gas dependency on Russia . In this case, the West has pivotal interests regarding Southern Gas Corridor which links the one side of Asia with Europe. Here, Iran is eager to export its energy resources to Europe at affordable prices and wants to acquire the Westward transportation of its natural gas. This is one of the main reasons why Iran holds close relations with Turkey;
3.Turkey is the main consumer of Iran’s oil and natural gas resources, although there have been some challenges regarding security, sanctions, and disagreement over high prices;
4.Despite having massive resources Iran is not a major player in the global gas market, it only exports gas to Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan and therefore, it is not ready to lose its reliable consumer like Turkey in international energy market;
5.The main aim of Iran is to gain broad access to flexible LNG export capability. However, Iran does not have terminals, technical expertise and required funds due to the sanctions. In fact, Turkey as an economic savior offers commercial and investment opportunities to Iran in order to build terminals and possess newly generated technologies to export LNG;
6.The one of the major reasons is the growing Turkish investments in the country. Turkey has long invested in Iran’s energy products in order to boost mutual trade between them in the energy sector.
Consequently, the emergence of cooperation between Turkey and Iran stems from the energy factor. The resources-rich Iran has an adequate capability to export its natural gas and oil products not only to Turkey but also the European market. Turkey as a stable consumer of its energy products try to diversify its energy supplies and source countries, at the same time, it is importantly in need to maintain its both domestic and foreign economic growth. As a result, it can be said that the continuing of a balanced relationship between Tehran and Ankara can be beneficial for the maintenance of the West’s energy security by diversifying its energy supplies and source countries.
Competition between Turkey and Iran
In XXI century, energy factor has caused to gain both a partner and a rivalry among states. In terms of a partnership, the nation-states try to show “win-win” position in order to meet their domestic demands and develop economic growth with mutual trade agreements. In contrary, in the position of rivalry, the states strive to acquire access to much more energy resources, and source- rich countries by imposing grand energy projects and sets of rules, at the same time, want to prevent the influence of rival states over energy-rich regions. It can be shown in the example of the relationship between Turkey and Iran. Currently, there are pivotal reasons why Iran does not have in mind to digest the geopolitical and economic positions of Turkey in energy-rich regions.
On the other hand, the rivalry in some cases, tensions can be observed in the ongoing process of Syrian Civil War. The severe civil war which caused loads of humanitarian crisis and calamity led to the misperceptions and different positions between major regional power including the U.S, Russia, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Since the beginning of the conflict, Russia and Iran has been the main supporter of Bashar-Al-Assad regime. In the contrary, Turkey is opposed to the Assad regime in the country. These different positions have caused the clash of interests between the two regional powers regarding Syrian Civil War.
Moreover, after the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran seeks alternative methods to export its natural gas products to European market via Turkey. However, Iran well understands that Turkey as a transit country is really significant for the multi-sided transportation of energy products, especially its natural gas resources. The anti-western position of Iran compels it to strengthen relations with Russia. Both of them are opposed to the Western-backed economic projects in the Caspian region.
To a large extent, after the completion of impressive projects in the South Caucasus, it is difficult to Iran to see Turkey will turn to be a grand power in the Southern Gas Corridor. In this case, Iran is afraid of being marginalized from the political and economic processes taking place in the Caspian region. The implementation of necessary energy-efficient projects in this region will lead to the dominant position of Turkey. Therefore, If Iran’s natural gas is transported to Europe via Turkey, this will give it a powerful bargaining chip against Iran. In fact, Iran never wants to give empowerment to Turkey against itself. Another reason is that Iran wants to keep the regional balance of power in energy. Therefore, the emergence of Turkey as an authoritative power will deprive Iran of the economic and political perks in the region. The transit role of Turkey in Southern Gas Corridor will lead to the realization of Turkish Stream. Because of the fact that the construction of Turkish Stream along with Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and the Iraq-Turkey gas pipeline, will give Turkey the powerful authorization over major pipelines in the future. As a result, Turkey as an energy hub will be able to control the flow of energy supplies from Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iraq. Today, Iran wants to provide its flexible LNG export. Therefore, in order to attain the goal, Iran tends to boost cooperation with China. In fact, China possesses novel energy infrastructure and technologies that will be able to help Iran to build LNG terminals.
However, it is undeniable fact that the emergence of terrorist organizations, (Islamic State, ISIS or ISIL, PKK), extremist movements, sectarian tensions, and the Kurdish problem put the major pipelines in jeopardy along with the Middle East region and Turkey. These arduous situations can be the favor of Iran because the construction of all major projects and an emergence of Turkey as energy commander will take a long time. The animosity and tensions in the Middle East region give the chance for the extremist and terrorist groups to take the major pipelines under their control as a source of revenue. (See annex No.5)
All in all, in any cases, the collaboration is much more beneficial than the competition. Collaboration stands on the “win-win” proposition and is inclined to the mutual perceptions of the parties. However, the competition mainly focuses on the success of only one party and does not give a chance to another one. Therefore, the relationship between Turkey and Iran should have to be characterized from the prism of the collaboration rather than competition, because both of them have a huge potential in order to participate in and get “win-win” position in the energy game.
Conclusions
The deep analysis of research revealed the following consequences:
1. As a result of the analysis, it was perceived that energy security forms a unity within the circle of national security and foreign policy. In today’s globalized world, the growing demands for energy, interests of nation states regarding alternative energy resources, in particular, the export of energy products at affordable prices to the international energy market create a competitive environment among states. Thus, it is undeniable fact that energy closely relates with the national power of states. The broad access to well-off energy resources, the secure transportation and rational utilization of them mainly depend on the relations between or within states. Therefore, energy as a guarantor of national security is important for states’ survival and well-being. However, it is clear that the acts of states sometimes evoke some problems and obstacles in global level, for example, the over- exploitation of energy resources causes the huge environmental problems, and today the climate change issue as a result of irrational overutilization of energy products should force all states to take active and accommodative actions in order to solve this problem at international level.
2. The research showed that like other major states, both Turkey and Iran have their own goals and geostrategic interests in the energy spectrum. According to Turkey, the pivotal goal stands on the diversification of energy supplies in conjunction with source countries. At the same time, it strives to gain an authoritative power over major grand energy projects in the energy-based regions; the Caspian Basin and the Gulf region. For today, the South Caucasus gives a huge chance to Turkey to be a future energy hub in the region. The implementation of future grand energy projects is able to open a successful way with which Turkey as a key transit country will be able to import energy products at affordable prices. However, in the Gulf region, basically the Middle East, the emergence of extremist movements, the Kurdish problems, the risk of İSİS and PKK, ongoing severe Syrian crisis and other problems challenge the situation in the region that engender barriers in the face of Turkey.
3. It is obvious that similar to Turkey, Iran has also geo-energetic and political interests in the energy game in the following countries. Amid the period of sanctions, the West put many restrictions on Iran. Therefore, Iran was not able to export its products to the international energy market. Upon the lifting economic sanction, Iran strives to gain more access to foreign markets in order export its energy products adequately. At the same time, Iran offers reasonable prices for its products in order to gain access to European markets. Although Iran holds affluent energy deposits, it has a limited number of consumers importing its products and Iran would have never wanted to be isolated from the economic and political processes taking place in the Caspian Basin and the Gulf region. On behalf of a regional partnership, it tries to strengthen the energy-based cooperation with other countries including China, India, Brazil, and mainly, Russia.
4. The development of the relationship between Turkey and Iran chiefly related with energy. Today, Iran has adequate energy assets in order to export them to international energy markets. Turkey is a stable and reliable consumer of Iran’s energy products because of its scarce oil and gas deposits. Iran well realizes that Turkey would be a reliable provider for the transportation of its energy products to the European market. Therefore, Iran strives to be one of the main parts of Southern Gas Corridor in the South Caucasus region, in which Turkey as a pivotal trade bridge provides the secure shipment of Iran’s gas products directly to Europe. Iran’s such an approach toward Turkey gives both of them to benefit from the economic processes in the region that create “win-win” position between them. However, the situation in the Gulf region is not as the same as the Caspian region. The movements of radical Islamists, hostility, fear of proxy war regarding Syrian Civil War, force both Turkey and Iran to take another stance regarding the problems in the region.
5. The research emphasized that the relationship between Turkey and Iran can be characterized from the prism of both collaboration and competition. Both of them have varied goals and interests in the energy game and strive to keep their influences in the following regions. Turkey as a stable consumer of Iran’s products is a reliable partner, but when it comes to competitive relations, Iran sees Turkey as an important rival in the region. Since last decades, these have been many difficulties in the relations between them regarding the disagreement over prices, sanctions, and the various stances on Syrian Civil War. At the same time, today Iran can not digest the growing role of Turkey in the following regions. The main reason is that the future application of energy pipelines will give Turkey empowerment and bargaining chip against Iran. Therefore, Iran on the one side does not want to see as a winner in the energy game, on the other side, it does not have in mind to lose its trade partner in the energy field. However, it is difficult for Iran to take radical actions against Turkey and tries to set up accommodative approach toward Turkey. Hence, both of them realize that going into mutual bargaining is much more beneficial rather than competition.
