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A Tough Row to Hoe

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[yt_dropcap type=”square” font=”” size=”14″ color=”#000″ background=”#fff” ] A [/yt_dropcap]ll seemed hunky-dory. The air was suffused with a sanguine current cascading through the markets and rallying up the prices touching a year-high of $53.73. Saudi Arabia aims to cut 2%-4% of total production and Russia also says that it will drain some 700,000 bpd. But the whole scenario was tinged with a shadow of askance.

Soon after Russia said that she is ready to cut production, Rosneft’s boss put a check on the growing positivism by infusing uncertainty into the air. He said that we will not participate in this cut or freeze program.

Few days back when Saudi Arabia and Non-OPEC members met in Vienna in order to mull upon the minutiae as preparation for the final November 30th deal. There is almost a whole month to go before the world see what might happen on that very day. But before it I would like to veer the reader’s attention towards some of the stones that the OPEC and Non-OPEC producers have to turn in their way to reach at their destination.

A Look at Fundamentals- Figures and facts tend to depict a picture that is not corrupted by subjectivity, sentiments and speculations. International Energy Agency in its last oil market report give us a peek into the latest trends. “Global oil supply rose by 0.6 mb/d in September, with non-OPEC up nearly 0.5 mb/d on higher Russian and Kazakh flows and OPEC at an all-time high”. Also, “due to OPEC growth” the world supply tumefied to 97.2 mbpd- a 0.2%increase. The rig count, calculated by Baker and Hughes (of-late, engaged in a merger with GE), has been rising for 17 weeks only to fall by 2 in the past one (ending October 28th) making the total rig count 441. The EIA states that the US production has fallen only 0.10% . The inventory level, as per American based EIA, has seen a huge build-up of 14 million barrels for week ending October 28 sending crude 3% low. The aforesaid is a kaleidoscopic picture imbued with a numerical color. Some good and some bad news.

Exemptions and Excuses- First it was only Iran now another country stands in the queue to receive the largesse of exemption from any sort of cut or freeze. The new country is Iraq. OPEC’s second largest producer says that it should be exonerated from any production cut as it needs cash to fight the balaclava wearing IS terrorists. Iran, with an unwavering stance, rejects any notion of curtailing its production by abducing a simple argument: after years of sanctions its pulverulent pumping jacks are now waggling the dust off and it will be a pure folly to halt its production. Libya is another contender waiting to be absolved. Nigeria hit by the recent spate of attacks by Niger Delta Avengers too. And both are in no mood to curb. Nigeria’s output is reaching to its pre-crisis level as pointed out by Nigerian oil Minister Emmanuel Ibe. Its Trans Niger Pipeline has also resumed operation. Libya, since September, has ramped up its production to 590,000 bpd. This puts the onus on Saud Arabia and Russia. The latter one also seems dubious for, albeit said to participate in the deal, the figures in their budget finds itself in a contradiction as they aim to extract more than 11mbpd in the coming year(s). Last month KSA’s production also broke the ceiling when it touched an all-time high of 33.6mbpd. Certainly, not a good recipe to heal the markets.

Agreement- Let’s assume the best of scenarios. At the table, Mr. Khalid Al-Falih stands up and sprinkles the words that send a wave of relief and a smile among his interlocutors. “We have decided to cut production”, he heralds with a sense of far-sightedness and sensibility deeming himself as the sailor who seem to take pride to steer away the Saudi boat away from the whirlpool of economic pressures that has caused a dent in one of the top 20 biggest economies of the world. Russia follows and Mr. Putin reverberate the same. Gasps. Some flabbergasted. Some happy. The markets revel. All back to normal (normal will now be $60-$70). An uncannily prosperous picture, indeed. But the question then swims from this sea of mirth and start to surface on the level i.e. how long will this deal hold? Russia has recently bought Essar oil company which gives it control in one of the biggest and burgeoning market of the world i.e. India. The Kashagan oil field has started oozing out black gold and it will further contribute to the current supply glut. There is no demand as the Paris based IEA also said in its October oil market report that the demand has further slowed down. China, the main driving force behind the demand, is tepid. Also, the metamorphosis of a cut into quotas can also be witnessed. “The High Level Committee of experts will meet again in Vienna on Nov. 25 ahead of the next meeting of OPEC ministers on Nov. 30, to “finalize individual quotas”. Again quoting IEA Non OPEC supply is expected to increase by 0.4mbpd in 2017.

Mr. Fereydoun Barkehsli, Advisor of the Institute of International Energy Studies and Head of Vienna Energy Center in response to the question that what might be the issues impeding Nov. 30th deal, says: “Saudi Arabia was OPEC Swing producer for several years. The Kingdom was Quota-free under the condition that once market was under-supplied or over-supplied, Saudi Arabia would adjust its supply accordingly and an official price level would be maintained. But as crude oil prices plummeted during 1984-85 Mr. Zaki Yamani who was then Kingdom’s oil minister officially announced that his country could not cut down production any longer to maintain price and asked for production quota. Since then Saudi Arabia has persistently asked for pro-rata cut by all members. Iran is not the only member who is unhappy about cutting production, but all members who have already reached their production peak do not want to cut, because once demand and price was on the rise, Saudi Arabia got most of the market share ergo the dissent of other members. Russia and non-OPEC producers have a different story of their own. Russia has consistently jumped over OPEC shoulders and benefited from the organizations higher demand and price and never contributed towards OPEC sacrifices. I believe in 30 November’s Ministerial conference in Vienna the organization will have to fight at two fronts. Moscow is, behind the scenes, lobbying with Venezuela and Iran for exemption but neither of them is supportive of giant non-OPEC producer.”

Independent Economic Analyst, Writer and Editor. Contributes columns to different newspapers. He is a columnist for Oilprice.com, where he analyzes Crude Oil and markets. Also a sub-editor of an online business magazine and a Guest Editor in Modern Diplomacy. His interests range from Economic history to Classical literature.

Energy

Indonesian Coal Roadmap: Optimizing Utilization amid Global Tendency to Phasing Out

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Authors: Razin Abdullah and Luky Yusgiantoro*

Indonesia is potentially losing state revenue of around USD 1.64-2.5 billion per year from the coal tax and non-tax revenues. Although currently Indonesia has abundant coal resources, especially thermal coal, the coal market is gradually shrinking. This shrinking market will negatively impact Indonesia’s economy. The revenue can be used for developing the country, such as for the provision of public infrastructures, improving public education and health services and many more.

One of the main causes of the shrinking coal market is the global tendency to shift to renewable energy (RE). Therefore, a roadmap is urgently needed by Indonesia as a guideline for optimizing the coal management so that it can be continuously utilized and not become neglected natural resources. The Indonesian Coal Roadmap should also offer detailed guidance on utilizing coal for the short-term, medium-term and long-term.

Why is the roadmap needed?

Indonesia’s total coal reserves is around 37.6 billion tons. If there are no additional reserves and the assumed production rate is 600 million tons/year, then coal production can continue for another 62 years. Even though Indonesia’s coal production was enormous, most of it was for export. In 2019, the export reached 454.5 million tons or almost 74% of the total production. Therefore, it shows a strong dependency of the Indonesian coal market on exports, with China and India as the main destinations. The strong dependency and the global trend towards clean energy made the threat of Indonesian coal abandonment increasingly real.

China, one of Indonesia’s main coal export destinations, has massive coal reserves and was the world’s largest coal producer. In addition, China also has the ambition to become a carbon-free country by 2060, following the European Union countries, which are targeting to achieve it in 2050. It means China and European Union countries would not produce more carbon dioxide than they captured by 2060 and 2050, respectively. Furthermore, India and China have the biggest and second-biggest solar park in the world. India leads with the 2.245GW Bhadla solar park, while China’s Qinghai solar park has a capacity of 2.2GW. Those two solar parks are almost four times larger than the U.S.’ biggest solar farm with a capacity of 579 MW. The above factors raise concerns that China and India, as the main export destinations for Indonesian coal, will reduce their coal imports in the next few years.

The indications of a global trend towards RE can be seen from the energy consumption trend in the U.S. In 2019, U.S. RE consumption exceeded coal for the first time in over 130 years. During 2008-2019, there has been a significant decrease in U.S coal consumption, down by around 49%. Therefore, without proper coal management planning and demand from abroad continues to decline, Indonesia will lose a large amount of state revenue. The value of the remaining coal resources will also drop drastically.

Besides the global market, the domestic use of coal is mostly intended for electricity generation. With the aggressive development of RE power plant technology, the generation prices are getting cheaper.  Sooner or later, the RE power plant will replace the conventional coal power plant. Therefore, it is necessary to emphasize efforts to diversify coal products by promoting the downstream coal industries in the future Indonesian Coal Roadmap.

What should be included: the short-term plan

In designing the Indonesian Coal Roadmap, a special attention should be paid to planning the diversification of export destinations and the diversification of coal derivative products. In the short term, it is necessary to study the potential of other countries for the Indonesian coal market so that Indonesia is not only dependent on China and India. As for the medium and long term, it is necessary to plan the downstream coal industry development and map the future market potential.

For the short-term plan, the Asian market is still attractive for Indonesian coal. China and India are expected to continue to use a massive amount of coal. Vietnam is also another promising prospective destination. Vietnam is projected to increase its use of coal amidst the growing industrial sector. In this plan, the Indonesian government plays an essential role in building political relations with these countries so that Indonesian coal can be prioritized.

What should be included: the medium and long-term plans

For the medium and long-term plans, it is necessary to integrate the coal supply chain, the mining site and potential demand location for coal. Therefore, the coal logistics chain becomes more optimal and efficient, according to the mining site location, type of coal, and transportation mode to the end-user. Mapping is needed both for conventional coal utilization and downstream activities.

Particularly for the downstream activities, the roadmap needs to include a map of the low-rank coal (LRC) potentials in Indonesia, which can be used for coal gasification and liquefaction. Coal gasification can produce methanol, dimethyl ether (a substitute for LPG) and, indirectly, produce synthetic oil. Meanwhile, the main product of coal liquefaction is synthetic oil, which can substitute conventional oil fuels. By promoting the downstream coal activities, the government can increase coal’s added value, get a multiplier effect, and reduce petroleum products imports.

The Indonesian Coal Roadmap also needs to consider related existing and planned regulations so that it does not cause conflicts in the future. In designing the roadmap, the government needs to involve relevant stakeholders, such as business entities, local governments and related associations.

The roadmap is expected not only to regulate coal business aspects but also to consider environmental aspects. The abandoned mine lands can be used for installing a solar farm, providing clean energy for the country. Meanwhile, the coal power plant is encouraged to use clean coal technology (CCT). CCT includes carbon capture storage (CCS), ultra-supercritical, and advanced ultra-supercritical technologies, reducing emissions from the coal power plant.

*Luky Yusgiantoro, Ph.D. A governing board member of The Purnomo Yusgiantoro Center (PYC).

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Energy

Engaging the ‘Climate’ Generation in Global Energy Transition

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photo: IRENA

Renewable energy is at the heart of global efforts to secure a sustainable future. Partnering with young people to amplify calls for the global energy transition is an essential part of this endeavour, as they represent a major driver of development, social change, economic growth, innovation and environmental protection. In recent years, young people have become increasingly involved in shaping the sustainable development discourse, and have a key role to play in propelling climate change mitigation efforts within their respective communities.

Therefore, how might we best engage this new generation of climate champions to accentuate their role in the ongoing energy transition? In short, engagement begins with information and awareness. Young people must be exposed to the growing body of knowledge and perspectives on renewable energy technologies and be encouraged to engage in peer-to-peer exchanges on the subject via new platforms.

To this end, IRENA convened the first IRENA Youth Forum in Abu Dhabi in January 2020, bringing together young people from more than 35 countries to discuss their role in accelerating the global energy transformation. The Forum allowed participants to take part in a truly global conversation, exchanging views with each other as well as with renewable energy experts and representatives from governments around the world, the private sector and the international community.

Similarly, the IRENA Youth Talk webinar, organised in collaboration with the SDG 7 Youth Constituency of the UN Major Group for Children and Youth, presented the views of youth leaders, to identify how young people can further the promotion of renewables through entrepreneurship that accelerates the energy transition.

For example, Joachim Tamaro’s experience in Kenya was shared in the Youth Talk, illustrating how effective young entrepreneurs can be as agents of change in their communities. He is currently working on the East Africa Geo-Aquacultural Development Project – a venture that envisages the use of solar energy to power refrigeration in rural areas that rely on fishing for their livelihoods. The project will also use geothermal-based steam for hatchery, production, processing, storage, preparation and cooking processes.

It is time for governments, international organisations and other relevant stakeholders to engage with young people like Joachim and integrate their contributions into the broader plan to accelerate the energy transition, address climate change and achieve the UN Sustainable Development Agenda.

Business incubators, entrepreneurship accelerators and innovation programmes can empower young people to take their initiatives further. They can give young innovators and entrepreneurs opportunities to showcase and implement their ideas and contribute to their communities’ economic and sustainable development. At the same time, they also allow them to benefit from technical training, mentorship and financing opportunities.

Governments must also engage young people by reflecting their views and perspectives when developing policies that aim to secure a sustainable energy future, not least because it is the youth of today who will be the leaders of tomorrow.

IRENA

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Energy

The Urgency of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for Indonesia’s Energy Security

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Authors:Akhmad Hanan and Dr. Luky Yusgiantoro*

Indonesia is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, which has great potential for natural disasters. These disasters have caused damage to energy infrastructure and casualties. Natural disasters usually cut the energy supply chain in an area, causing a shortage of fuel supply and power outages.

Besides natural disasters, energy crisis events occur mainly due to the disruption of energy supplies. This is because of the disconnection of energy facilities and infrastructure by natural disasters, criminal and terrorist acts, escalation in regional politics, rising oil prices, and others. With strategic national energy reserves, particularly strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), Indonesia can survive the energy crisis if it has.

Until now, Indonesia does not have an SPR. Meanwhile, fuel stocks owned by business entities such as PT Pertamina (Persero) are only categorized as operational reserves. The existing fuel stock can only guarantee 20 days of continuity. Whereas in theory, a country has secured energy security if it has a guaranteed energy supply with affordable energy prices, easy access for the people, and environmentally friendly. With current conditions, Indonesia still does not have guaranteed energy security.

Indonesian Law mandates that to ensure national energy security, the government is obliged to provide national energy reserves. This reserve can be used at any time for conditions of crisis and national energy emergencies. It has been 13 years since the energy law was issued, Indonesia does not yet have an SPR.

Lessons from other countries

Many countries in the world have SPR, and its function is to store crude oil and or fuel oil. SPR is built by many developed countries, especially countries that are members of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA was formed due to the disruption of oil supply in the 1970s. To avoid the same thing happening again, the IEA has made a strategic decision by obliging member countries to keep in the SPR for 90 days.

As one of the member countries, the US has the largest SPR in the world. Its storage capacity reaches a maximum of 714 million barrels (estimated to equal 115 days of imports) to mitigate the impact of disruption in the supply of petroleum products and implement US obligations under the international energy program. The US’ SPR is under the control of the US Department of Energy and is stored in large underground salt caves at four locations along the Gulf of Mexico coastline.

Besides the US, Japan also has the SPR. Japan’s SPR capacity is 527 million barrels (estimated to equal 141 days of imports). SPR Japan priority is used for disaster conditions. For example, in 2011, when the nuclear reactor leak occurred at the Fukushima nuclear power plant due to the Tsunami, Japan must find an energy alternative. Consequently, Japan must replace them with fossil fuel power plants, mainly gas and oil stored in SPR.

China, Thailand, and India also have their own SPR. China has an SPR capacity of 400-900 million barrels, Thailand 27.6 million barrels, and India 37.4 million barrels. Singapore does not have an SPR. However, Singapore has operational reserve in the form of fuel stock for up to 90 days which is longer than Indonesia.

Indonesia really needs SPR

The biggest obstacles of developing SPR in Indonesia are budget availability, location selection, and the absence of any derivative regulations from the law. Under the law, no agency has been appointed and responsible for building and managing SPR. Also, government technical regulations regarding the existence and management of SPR in Indonesia is important.

The required SPR capacity in Indonesia can be estimated by calculating the daily consumption from the previous year. For 2019, the national average daily consumption of fuel is 2.6 million kiloliters per day. With the estimation of 90 days of imports, Indonesia’s SPR capacity must at least be more than 100 million barrels to be used in emergencies situations.

For selecting SPR locations, priority can be given to areas that have safe geological structures. East Kalimantan is suitable to be studied as an SPR placement area. It is also geologically safe from disasters and is also located in the middle of Indonesia. East Kalimantan has the Balikpapan oil refinery with the capacity of 260,000 BPD for SPR stock. For SPR funding solution, can use the state budget with a long-term program and designation as a national strategic project.

Another short-term solution for SPR is to use or lease existing oil tankers around the world that are not being used. Should the development of SPR be approved by the government, then the international shipping companies may be able to contribute to its development.

China currently dominates oil tanker shipping in the world, Indonesia can work with China to lease and become Indonesia’s SPR. Actually, this is a good opportunity at the time of the COVID-19 pandemic because oil prices are falling. It would be great if Indonesia could charter some oil tankers and buy fuel to use as SPR. This solution was very interesting while the government prepared long-term planning for the SPR facility. In this way, Indonesia’s energy security will be more secure.

*Dr. Luky Yusgiantoro, governing board member of The Purnomo Yusgiantoro Center (PYC).

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