Russia has been looking for right opportunities to regain its lost status as super power by resorting o all sorts of combinations and permutations with some success. President Putin could not make much of his open support for the USA over Sept 11. Later, Russian actions in Crimea further complicated its relations with USA wanting to control entire Europe as the winner of World war and Cold war.
Syrian war has now provided Moscow with the much needed edge and prestige plus the anticipated advantage to Russian foreign policy as it supported the ruler Assad by selling terror goods and guidance.
Russia hopes the position it has assumed now would help increase its diplomatic profile in Mideast and elsewhere. But whether or not USA and Russia plays a joint war in Syria is not very clear as yet
For years since the collapse of mighty Soviet Union, Russia has been trying to stay an equal power to US super power and made policies to appease US capitalist system without much success in coming closer to Washington, except a few “adjustments” with regard to attack on Muslim nations like Syria. Nothing could help Moscow to come to the close position it sought because USA denies that comfort zone not only to the Kremlin but, for that matter, to any nation, including its closest ally UK. Once it became apparent that It cannot be an equal power to equally “share” profits globally, Moscow adopted confrontational cum cooperative policy towards USA but even that could not make Americans trust Russians.
Apparently, Russo-US relations are strained, presumably, forever. USA remembers the Cold war more than Russia for its negative consequences as Russia boldly threatened the US supremacy and dominance.
However, the mindset of Cold war animosity in which they almost “missed” a nuke-missile war, is too strong for both to completely get away from that “proxy” mindset.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted a “fresh” start in bilateral ties when secret “terrorists” attacked New York as per the preplanned Sept-11 agenda, but supporting the so-called War in Terror” but which in fact means a permanent war on Islam until perhaps the religion of God (Prophet Muhammad’s Islam) is gone – factually many Muslim nations also lend support to the anti-Islamic war. That only reveals the faith deficit among global Muslim rulers and leaders, mainly in Arab world.
When Russian strongman Vladimir Putin met US President Barack Obama in 2015 at the World Climate Change Conference in France the temperature between the two was less than warm. Mutual suspicion and hatred is rampant. Later, on the sidelines of a recent conference in Brussels, media asked a Russian diplomat to explain their strategy in Libya, where Moscow has been cozying up to a former Qaddafi-era general with strongman ambitions who opposes an UN-backed unity government. His response was Kremlin boilerplate, claiming a “balanced” policy dovetailing with national interests and national defense. For Moscow national defense means playing very tactfully with US-NATO moves to contain the Kremlin and breach the Russian borders at some points with the help of their allies. This is a standard line trotted out by Russian officials when it comes to foreign policy under President Vladimir Putin.
As USA, owing mainly to Israeli problem, is fast losing its traditional influence world over, Russia is trying to occupy the spaces left over by Washington maybe in order to stabilize the war torn zones. President Putin’s way of dealing with the world has jangled nerves in many quarters as he seeks to tip regional balances of power in Europe, the Middle East and beyond to Moscow’s advantage.
Putin is in his third term and likely to have fourth term as well as president of an aspiring super power in Eurasia – by far the longest-serving leader in the G20 – and Putin’s confrontational approach to diplomacy – accompanied by a military iron fist in Ukraine and Syria – have won him fans at home while causing alarm abroad, particularly in Europe and the USA.
Russians seek to revive the old Soviet or Russian Empire and Putin fits the Russian bill for a strong presidency to challenge the USA and EU. In an address to Russia’s parliament in 2005, Putin famously declared the collapse of the Soviet Union as a “major geopolitical disaster” and it is this notion – regret for what was lost and frustration over what he and his compatriots see as the subsequent loss of international standing for Moscow – that drives his thinking on foreign policy.
Russians are indeed proud of their president. Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and its war in the Donbas region of Ukraine, etc have resurrected security anxieties in Europe not seen since the Balkan conflicts in the 1990s but Russians feel safe and secured and equally proud of their president because nobody can even think of attacking Russia. In that sense Russia is a super power in its own security rights, though its economy has been wrecked by the western sanctions. Since it is rich nation traditionally, Russia is able to withstand all pressure tactics of NATO-USA.
Moscow’s military intervention in Syria – including devastating air strikes on rebel-held eastern Aleppo which have killed many civilians – shifted the momentum in favour of its long-standing ally in Damascus Bashar al-Assad who considers his own presidency the most important factor and would see Syria in ashes in order to stay in power. Though his regime is still mired in a vicious, multi-faceted five-year-old war Assad doesn’t think he should step aside and save Syria and its people. His own life more precious than thousands of Syrians who have been slaughtered by his military, USA, Russia and other anti-Islamic forces.
In Egypt, where USA and Arab allies successfully planned to oust an elected government of Mohammad Mursi representing Muslim Brotherhood, the military replaced the first ever elected government. Now the general Sisi regime has been increasingly at odds with allies like the USA, Moscow has stepped in offering military cooperation.
Kremlin officials announced this month that Russia is hoping to re-open its Cold War-era naval base on the Mediterranean coastline near the border with Libya. Some European diplomats believe Russia’s meddling next door in Libya – where it has discussed weapons supplies with forces opposed to a unity government despite the UN arms embargo – is aimed at maintaining enough instability there to ensure the country remains enough of a headache for Europe to the north.
Putin was personally incensed by the NATO-led intervention that helped rebels topple Muammar Gaddafi in Libya in 2011.
It is no coincidence that the growing challenge of Russia’s muscular policies overseas is happening at a time when the US-led post-Cold War order has weakened, with the undermining of institutions that have helped underpin it, like the EU and NATO. It is no surprise that, according to US sources, Moscow has funded populist anti-EU political parties and movements across Europe, including the National Front in France, which is experiencing a surge in support.
Putin’s geopolitical adventures have proved popular with Russians still smarting over the shrinking of Moscow’s global clout along with the demise of the Soviet Union. Since the Crimea takeover, public support for Putin and his foreign policy has remained high. One poll shows Putin’s approval rating has hovered between 80 to 90pc since 2014. Another survey found almost two out of five Russians believe the government’s primary foreign policy goal should be to bring back the superpower status it had during the Soviet era.
Moscow oversees an economy that is struggling because the existing model is considered by many to be no longer fit for purpose. Without a more robust economic foundation, the gap between what Russia aspires to and what is capable of being – both domestically and internationally – will grow. Others argue that Putin’s style of hard-headed diplomacy mixed with military clout, while bringing him some successes in the short-term, may prove more difficult to pursue in the long-term in a multi-polar world shaped by more fluid and unpredictable dynamics than in the past.
Putin’s presidential term extends until 2018 and many observers argue that if he is to maintain his momentum on the international stage – outmaneuvering Western rivals on certain issues to applause back in Russia – and consolidate recent gains, it must be bolstered by better economic strategy at home. The fact Putin is expected to be re-elected in two years’ time says much about his ability to play the domestic scene. Whether he can continue to do so on the world stage is another question.
Vladimir Putin’s power play in the wider Middle East region – not just limited to Syria – has upended Western calculations and prompted concerns in Washington and Brussels. Moscow may have got a map ready to recapture all those Muslim nations that have been destabilized by USA and NATO- starting with Afghanistan all over again.
USA and Russia are fighting for military domination worldwide that began when Soviet Russia occupied Afghanistan and USA used all powers it could muster to oust the Red Army from Afghanistan which it later occupied on some false pretexts following the Sept-11, meticulously engineered by anti-Islamic elements.
The research showed that respondents believed the biggest obstacle to Russia becoming an even more powerful global player was resistance from the USA and EU, a claim repeatedly echoed in Russian state media. The obstacles to Russian strive for bigger status than USA would remains in place may be not be easy because of counter measures by the USA, EU and NATO.
It Is Crucial to Watch Changes among the Russian Elites
Georgia’s and to a large extent any other post-Soviet state’s foreign policy depends on what happens in/to Russia.
Problems in the Russian economy might be causing reverberations in Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, etc., but it still is not a long-term problem. What should matter more fundamentally to us are internal developments within the Russian ruling class, changes in the government, struggle among powerful groupings, and relations between the civil and military branches.
In other words, we need to pay closer attention to the Russian elites which govern the country and therefore control the country’s foreign policy. This is important since Russia’s internal situation often has a bearing on foreign policy, and that is where it matters to us.
To be sure, watching developments in a country’s ruling elites is crucial for almost every modern state which is geopolitically active. But with Russia, this is even more important as the political power in the country does not derive from the people as in the European democracies, but rather from powerful security and military agencies which enable the central government in Moscow to control efficiently large swathes of territories, usually of unfriendly geographic conditions.
The way modern Russian elites operate is very similar to the way how Soviet and imperial (Romanov) governments worked. Quite surprisingly, in all the cases Russian elites have been always perceptible of changing economic or geopolitical situation inside or outside the country.
It is often believed that a ruler, again whether during the imperial or Soviet times, wielded ultimate power over the fate of the population and the governing elites. The same notion works for Vladimir Putin. Westerners often portray him as a sole ruler to all the affairs Russian and non-Russian and a major voice in what should be done. True, the incumbent president is powerful, but he gained this authority more as a balancer among several powerful groups of interests such as military, economic, security, cultural and numerous smaller factions inside each of these large groups.
To many, it might seem strange and hardly possible that the Russian president balances rather than rules, but generally a Russian ruler, despite the historically autocratic models of government, always had to pay attention to changing winds among the country’s elites. In the beginning, if all goes badly, the elites might be silent for the fear of oppression, but slowly and steadily they would always try to influence the government. If this did not work, the Russian elites would not hesitate to abandon the ‘sinking ship’.
Indeed, Russian history shows how powerful the Russian elites are and how vital their support for a government is.
Take the example of the Romanov dynasty before World War I. There was a big disenchantment with the way the government operated and once the Tsarist rule failed in the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-1905 and the WWI, the result was immediate: the elites turned their back on the Romanovs and the Empire ceased to exist in 1917.
Perhaps an even better example is how the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Though there were military problems, corruption as well as economic woes, it was still in the minds and hearts of the ruling Russian and Ukrainian, Georgian and other governing circles that the idea of a common state failed.
Nowadays, Russia is experiencing serious problems, ranging from economic and educational to purely geopolitical. There are occasional signs that the Russian elites are getting more worried about the future prospects of the country. Where before the Ukrainian crisis there was still hope of final European-Russian rapprochement and the idea that Russians had to model themselves on Europe, now this idea is dead.
Thus, along with social and foreign policy troubles, the Russians are also experiencing a purely spiritual problem. All point to the fact that there are too many issues which have accumulated during Putin’s rule, which, surely, will not be easy to change overnight, but there is a growing understanding that this chosen way is not getting Russia to a spectacularly good place in the world arena.
This brings us to the pivotal question of what Russia will be like after Putin. Is a change to the existing status quo possible? Many developments show that it is a plausible scenario. Considering how many problems have accumulated and considering how troublesome historically it has been for the Russian elites to act openly against the government, it is possible that once Putin is out, internal infighting among elite groups will take place. As a result, reverberations to foreign policy will follow. It is not about wishful thinking on the part of the western community, but rather the result of an analysis of Russian history and the Russian mentality. Almost always, changes at the top of the government, whether peaceful or otherwise, have an impact on the foreign and internal situation.
This is what should be meticulously studied by the Georgians.
Author’s note: first published in Georgia Today
Experts Campaign to Enlist Russia’s Commitment to Africa
Roscongress Foundation and Integration Expertise LLC (Intex) have signed an agreement on cooperation between their organizations to work collaboratively on the “Russia-Africa Shared Vision 2030” in preparation for the forthcoming Russia-Africa Summit. The agreement directed towards collecting and collating expert views for the project “Russia-Africa Shared Vision 2030” that could be incorporated into the final Summit Declaration.
A group of Russian experts plan to present a comprehensive document titled “Russia-Africa: Shared Vision 2030” at the forthcoming Russia-Africa Summit scheduled on 23–24 October in Sochi, southern Russian city.
Sochi, located in southern Russia, has an excellent heritage. In both winter and summer, the city hosts world-class global international events, such as the Olympics, the World Festival of Youth and Students, and many others. Sochi has one of the largest congress complexes in the country.
The key issue emerging from many policy experts is a fresh call on Russian Government to seriously review and change some of its policy approach currently implemented in Africa. It’s necessary to actively use combined forms of activities, an opportunity to look at the problems and the perspectives of entire Russian-African partnership and cooperation in different fields from the viewpoints of both Russian and African politicians, business executives, academic researchers, diplomats and social activists.
The Russia-Africa Summit will be the first platform to bring African leaders and business executive directors to interact and discuss economic cooperation of mutual interest with Russian counterparts, nearly 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Even as the historical event draws nearer and nearer with preparations underway, Russian officials at the Kremlin and Ministries, particularly Ministries of Foreign Affairs, and Economic Development and Industry, are still lip-tight over what African leaders have to expect from the Summit.
On the other hand, competition is rife on the continent, with many foreign countries interested in Africa. Resultantly, African leaders have been making rational and comparative choices that enormously support their long-term Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Roscongress Foundation along with the Integration Expertise information-analytical company said in a recent news brief that collaborative writing team of Russian and African experts have been working on a document that would outline the main areas for interaction between Russia and African countries.
An expert analysis, including macroeconomic reviews, and an analysis of political systems and inter-country development strategies would be used to reach conclusions about opportunities for cooperation, make recommendations, and define specific goals for the development of Russian-African relations in the period until 2030.
Anton Kobyakov, an Adviser to the Russian President, noted that “Russia has traditionally prioritized developing relations with African countries. Trade and economic relations as well as investment projects with the countries of the African continent offer enormous potential. Major Russian businesses view Africa as a promising place for investment.”
Andrei Kemarsky, Director of the Department of Africa of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said the work on the series of expert reports united by the common theme “Russia-Africa Shared Vision 2030” would make a significant contribution to intensifying Russian-African cooperation and would further promote Russia’s interests on the African continent.
“This project seems to be particularly relevant given the fact that the Russia-Africa Summit is scheduled to be held in Russia with the participation of heads of all African countries,” Kemarsky said.
In December 2017, Russian Export Center became a shareholder of Afreximbank. Russian Export Center is a specialized state development institution, created to provide any assistance, both financial and non-financial, for Russian exporters looking for widening their business abroad.
“We are seriously looking at multifaceted interaction with Africa. Russia has a long historical connection with the continent since the time African states started gaining their independence. However, that has lost its momentum in early 90s. It is our major goal now to rebuild the trust and the connections with the African countries to make the strong foundation for further business cooperation,” the General Director of the REC, Andrei Slepnev, told me in an emailed interview.
“We’re witnessing a clear growing interest from the both sides to establish the new level of relationships which means it is a perfect timing to boost the economic agenda we have, create a platform to vocalize these ideas and draw a strong roadmap for the future,” stressed Slepnev.
“Given the growing interest in Africa, Russian organizations, both private and public, need a high-quality guide that will help to avoid at least some of the mistakes that have already been made and provide pointers on some of the most promising mechanisms for collaboration,” Roscongress Foundation CEO, Alexander Stuglev, said.
Alexandra Arkhangelskaya, a Senior Lecturer at the Moscow High School of Economics said that Russia and Africa needed each other – “Russia is a vast market not only for African minerals, but for various other goods and products produced by African countries.”
Currently, the signs for Russian-African relations are impressive – declarations of intentions have been made, already many important bilateral agreements signed – now it remains to be seen, first of all, how these intentions and agreements would be implemented in practice with African countries, according to Arkhangelskaya.
During the signing of an agreement between the Integration Expertise and Roscongress Foundation, Yevgeny Korendyasov, a Senior Researcher at the Institute of African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that intensifying Russian-African cooperation was now among the list of current priorities of the Russian government and the business community.
“Preparations for the Russia-Africa Summit as a new platform for the Russian-African partnership are in full swing. In this situation, ensuring that relations between countries reach a new level requires a rethinking of approaches, mechanisms, and instruments for cooperation based on their heightened significance in the new conditions of world politics and economics,” according to Yevgeny Korendyasov.
Andrei Maslov, an Expert at the Valdai Discussion Club, noted that Russia’s partnership with the African continent was also a major focus at the Valdai International Club’s discussion platform, which hosted an expert session titled “Russia’s Return to Africa: Interests, Challenges, and Prospects” held in March 2019.
On March 19, under the Chairmanship of Yury Ushakov, an Aide to the Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Organizing Committee on Russia-Africa held its first meeting in Moscow. The Russia–Africa summit is expected to be attended by roughly 3,000 African businessmen, according to the official meeting report.
As a way to realize the target goals, a preliminary Russia-Africa Business Dialogue as part of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) will take place on June 6–8, and will be followed by the annual shareholders meeting of African Export-Import Bank. Russian Export Center became a shareholder in December 2017.
The Roscongress Foundation, established in 2007, is a socially oriented non-financial development institution and a major organizer of international business conventions, together with Russian Export Center are the key institutions responsible for preparation and holding of the all events. President Vladimir Putin put forward the Russia—Africa initiative at the BRICS summit (Russia, Brazil, India, China, and South Africa) in Johannesburg in July 2018.
Russia and North Korea: Key areas for cooperation
The April 25 meeting in Vladivostok between President Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un was their first since the North Korean leader came to power in 2011. Arriving on his armored train, Kim Jong-un said that he had always dreamed of visiting Russia and hoped that his first visit would not be the last.
“We talked about the history of our bilateral relations, about the current situation and the development of relations between our two countries,” Vladimir Putin said wrapping up the opening phase of the negotiations, which lasted for two hours – twice longer than originally planned.
Kim Jong-un said that the two leaders “had a very meaningful and constructive exchange of views tete-a-tete on all pressing issues of mutual interest.”
“I am grateful for the wonderful time I have spent here, and I hope that our negotiations will similarly continue in a useful and constructive way,” he added.
The talks later continued in an expanded format and ran for three and a half hours.
“We had a detailed discussion of all issues on our agenda: bilateral relations, matters related to sanctions, the United Nations, our relations with the United States and, of course, the central issue of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, focusing on different aspects of all these problems,” Vladimir Putin said during the final press conference.
The main outcome of the talks, however, was the two leaders’ repeated emphasis on the need to restart the six-party talks on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, as well as Russia’s readiness to act as a de-facto mediator between Pyongyang and Washington. Representatives of Russia, North and South Koreas, China, Japan and the United States regularly met between 2003 and 2008 (under Kim Jong-il), but those meetings were eventually suspended by Pyongyang following Washington’s refusal to ease the sanctions regime and its attempts to revise existing accords.
Ahead of the Vladivostok summit, the US Special Envoy for North Korea, Stephen Biegun, made a brief visit to Moscow to discuss the terms of the new Korean settlement parley. The US State Department described the diplomat’s visit as a desire to “discuss respective bilateral engagements with North Korea and efforts to achieve the final, fully verified denuclearization of North Korea.”
However, Mr. Biegun’s visit only underscored the lingering differences in the negotiating sides’ views on resolving the situation on the Korean Peninsula and regarding the mechanisms and mutual steps needed to make this happen. While North Korea, Russia and China are holding out for a phased lifting of sanctions on Pyongyang in exchange for North Korea gradually rolling back its nuclear missile program under international security guarantees, the United States insists on Pyongyang’s prior cessation of its entire nuclear missile development effort. According to Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong-un then asked him to convey his position and expectations to Washington.
“Chairman Kim Jong-un personally asked us to inform the American side about his position and the questions he has about what’s unfolding on the Korean Peninsula,” Vladimir Putin told reporters after the summit. He promised to do this at upcoming international forums – including in China, as part of the Belt and Road Initiative.
The North Korean leader had thus decided to get back to Pyongyang’s previous practice of “balancing” between the leading world powers in an effort to achieve maximum possible concessions. This balancing act is important for Pyongyang primarily with Washington and Moscow – especially after the failure of the US-North Korean summit held in Hanoi in February.
According to Andrei Kortunov, director of the Russian International Affairs Council, “Kim Jong-un’s trip to Vladivostok means that he is looking for outside support amid his stuttering talks with the United States.”.
“With the failure of the Hanoi summit, Kim Jong-un needs to confirm that he is generally committed to denuclearization, but within the framework of the Russian-Chinese phased plan. Donald Trump and his team reject this and demand a complete denuclearization of the DPRK as a condition for lifting the sanctions,” Go Myung-hyun of Seoul’s ASAN Institute of Policy Studies said.
“What Pyongyang now needs following the failure the Vietnam summit is at least a semblance of minimal diplomatic success,” Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul, said.
The list of countries Kim Jong-un can now turn to for diplomatic support is very short. These are essentially Russia and China. However, his visit to Beijing is not in the best interest of China, which is currently locked in tense trade negotiations with the United States.
Therefore, Kim Jong-un apparently hopes that his talks with Russia will send a signal to Washington that since political pressure on Pyongyang is not working, the Americans should proceed to a phased lifting of sanctions against North Korea in exchange for Pyongyang partially coming across on its nuclear missile program.
“North Korea’s strategy always has been walking a tight-rope between the conflicts of the world powers and getting concessions that way,” the BBC commented.
With the successful Russian-North Korean summit, which reaffirmed the two countries’ shared desire to breathe new vigor into the Korean settlement process, the ball is now in the US court, and President Trump’s well-known predilection for quick fixes and spectacular moves inspires hope for his next, third, meeting with Kim Jong-un.
During his recent visit to Washington, South Korean President Moon Jae-in underscored the need for a new such meeting between Trump and Kim. When meeting with Donald Trump, President Moon stressed that his “important task” is to “maintain the momentum of dialogue” toward North Korea’s denuclearization while expressing “the positive outlook, regarding the third US-North Korea summit, to the international community that this will be held in the near future.” Donald Trump responded in his peremptory manner: “I enjoy the summits, I enjoy being with the chairman,” he said, adding that his previous meetings with the North Korean leader had been “really productive.”
Although there has been no word yet about when exactly this meeting could happen, Kim Jong-un has already made it clear that he is ready “to be patient and wait for the American president by the end of the year.”
Seoul, another target of Pyongyang’s political signals, factors in very importantly in the diplomatic activity currently swirling around North Korea.
“Kim launched the inter-Korean phase of the “new way” immediately after the meeting in Hanoi. It involves ratcheting up pressure on South Korea to demonstrate greater independence from the US,” The Hill commented.
“Of course, while it is awkward for South Korea to say so openly, there is no gainsaying the fact that the failure to make really meaningful progress in implementing the detailed agreements negotiated during the inter-Korean summits in Panmunjom and Pyongyang is due to the constraints imposed by South Korea’s support for the US’ North Korea policy.”
“South Koreans truly may be the most effective mediators precisely because they are caught between the parties: the Americans with whom they share long-term, common interests; and the North Koreans with whom they share an existential, common national identity,” the publication concluded.
In addition to general political issues and the problem of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, economic projects in energy and infrastructure, including the construction of a gas pipeline and a railway line linking the two countries are an equally important aspect of cooperation between Russia and North Korea.
All these things, however, depend very much on the overall situation on the Korean Peninsula and the prospects for the normalization of inter-Korean relations.
“I spoke about this. We have been talking about this matter for many years. This includes direct railway traffic between South Korea, North Korea and Russia, including our Trans-Siberian Mainline, opportunities for laying pipelines – we can talk about both oil and gas, as well as the possible construction of new power transmission lines. All of this is possible. Moreover, in my opinion, this also meets the interests of the Republic of Korea, I have always had this impression. But, apparently, there is a shortage of sovereignty during the adoption of final decisions, and the Republic of Korea has certain allied obligations to the United States. Therefore, everything stops at a certain moment. As I see it, if these and other similar projects were implemented, this would create essential conditions for increasing trust, which is vitally needed to resolve various problems,” President Vladimir Putin said about this particular aspect of the talks with his North Korean counterpart.
Any further progress in the Korean settlement process depends directly on the kind of relationship we are going to see happening within the framework of the “six” world powers. Anyway, the summit, which has just closed up shop in Vladivostok, gives reasons for optimism.
First published in our partner International Affairs
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