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U.S. Election 2016: The countdown begins..

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The three debates are over and the countdown to the big day has started. It has become a much tighter race than it was a week ago. But a little needs to be mentioned about the debates and the aftermath.

Much has happened since the first debate. A week or two before the first debate, Hillary Clinton was leading by about 10 points. Then she took ill, was out of action for a week or so. Meanwhile, Trump took advantage of the situation, among other things, went and addressed African American churches, moderated himself, brought down the points difference to around two. So what does this mean? Does it mean that suddenly all African Americans changed their minds and decided to vote Republican, thus bringing down the lead from -12 to -02 points? Nope. It meant that by addressing the African American community, he was able to sway either people who were undecided or people who were hesitant to accept him. And then what happened?

He walked straight into the trap set by Hillary Clinton. She opened the cage not by saying ‘Open Sesame….’ but saying the Spanish equivalent of it ‘Alicia Machado……’ and our guy with a big smile happily walked into the cage. Clinton promptly shut the cage. Then the other events began to happen. There is a school of thought which says that monks and spiritually inclined people wake up at 03.00 AM in order to evolve themselves through meditation and other spiritual practices. Trump proved to the world that one does not have to be spiritually inclined to get up at that early an hour. He woke up at 03.00 AM and furiously ranted on twitter about a sex tape.

What does it matter whether there was a sex tape featuring the concerned person or not? Was it really related to what the Americans saw as problems or election issues? ‘Who cares’ says Trump. ‘If I have some negative emotions which are stuck in my solar plexus, this is the way that I will get them out’. Said he and boy, promptly did he lose the gap that he was narrowing at that time. If that was the only twist in the tale, the tale would have been a much happier one for the GOP supporters. Then the video where he bragged about his unwelcome sexual advances made towards women came out. At last the unbelievable happened. Donald Trump apologised. Of course not without a rider ‘I am a man of words. But Bill Clinton is a man of action….’

Then all came to know that Trump was a man of action too. 12 women have accused him of groping charges ‘till now’. And Trump has called all of them liars. It would be difficult for even the staunchest Trump supporter to believe that all the 12 women from different states having different political preferences are coming together and lying against Trump. But with all due respect, it is only fair to ask ‘why did the concerned women wait for so long and why are they revealing the information at this point of time just a few weeks ahead of the elections?’ Elections should not be decided by analysing bedroom happenings or an individual’s personal life. But one need not sympathise with the Donald on this because it was he who started it. He just got it back. Anyway, the Americans seem to be forgetting all this and are focusing on more important issues. Which they should do….

So, what about Hillary Clinton? In the third debate, Hillary , when she was asked about the speech that she made to a Brazilian bank where she mentioned that she wanted open borders, she gave some muddled answer about energy which clearly no one including her understood. Then she went on to speak about the fact that the more important issue is that Russians are interfering in this election (Russians are accused of making the revelation about her speech through Wikileaks). So according to her great logic, if someone is committing a crime and if the Russians happen to bring out the truth about that crime, the criminal should not be made accountable. This is logic at its beautiful best !!!

Finally, about the fact that Donald Trump is calling this election rigged, it all started with him terming the media entirely biased in favour of Clinton. He has a lot of truth there. But he did not give it the proper direction. As a result, it went out of control after the third debate when he replied to Chris Wallace by saying that he is not going to commit right now whether he would be willing to accept the election irrespective of the outcome. Actually, it is not that big a deal. If Trump wins, he will accept the verdict of the people with all humility of course. If he loses, Hillary would become the President. Then, does it really matter whether he accepts the verdict or not? If at all a legal challenge is thrown by him or his team, that would be dealt with by the courts in an appropriate manner. So why flutter and flitter about it?

Finally, talking about the electoral college, with states like California and New York (55 and 29 votes respectively) voting Democrats predominantly and states like Texas (38 votes) generally voting Republican, swing states or purple states like North Carolina (15 votes), Pennsylvania (20 votes), Ohio (18 votes), New Hampshire (4 votes) and others become crucial for both the candidates to get to the crucial number of 270. Among the swing states, Hillary has a lead in New Hampshire. But a Monmouth university poll shows Trump closing in (42%-46%) whereas a NBC News Wallstreet journal poll (WSJ/NBC) shows Hillary having a substantial lead (45%-36%). An WSJ/NBC poll shows a tie (43%-43%) in Nevada. A boost through the Bloomberg poll puts him in front in Florida by 2 per cent (45%-43%). In another important battleground state Ohio, Trump has either led or tied with Hillary. But he is struggling in Arizona (11 votes), Georgia (16 votes) and Utah (6 votes) which Mitt Romney won easily. In the RCP national poll, Clinton’s lead has come down from 7.1 points to 5.1 points. RCP average in Pennsylvania has come down from 8.7 points to 4.4 points now.

One final mention needs to be done about voters who vote for Trump but do not want to reveal that they are voting for Trump because it is not politically right to say so. Only of late have people started speaking about that. Not many people have analysed whether this could have a substantial effect on the outcome. It might or it might not. One can know that only when the results are announced. Hence we are in for some very interesting days. Finally, the predictions…. Hillary Clinton, at this stage with a substantial lead in most opinion polls, looks the favourite and all set to win. However, I predict a surprise result on November 8.

Harish Venugopalan is a Research Assistant with the Observer Research Foundation. He has done his Masters in International Relations from the Dublin City University (DCU) in 2011-2012. His current research interest is ‘Conflict Management in Africa’.

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Scandinavia Veers Left plus D-Day Reflections as Trump Storms Europe

Dr. Arshad M. Khan

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Mette Frederiksen of the five-party Social Democrat bloc won 91 of the 169 seats in the Danish parliament ending the rule of the right-wing Liberal Party group that had governed for 14 of the last 18 years.  The election issues centered on climate change, immigration and Denmark’s generous social welfare policies.  All parties favored tighter immigration rules thereby taking away the central issue dominating the far-right Democrat Freedom Party which has seen its support halved since the last election in 2015.

Ms Frederiksen promised more spending to bolster the much loved social welfare model and increased taxes on businesses and the wealthy.  A left wave is sweeping Scandinavia as Denmark becomes the third country, after Sweden and Finland, to move left within a year.  Mette Frederiksen will also be, at 41, the youngest prime minister Denmark has ever had.

Donald Trump has used the 75th anniversary of D-Day commemorations to garner positive publicity.  The supreme promoter has managed to tie it in with a “classy” (his oft-chosen word) state visit to the UK spending a day with royals.  It was also a farewell to the prime minister as her resignation is effective from June 7.  Add a D-Day remembrance ceremony at Portsmouth and he was off to his golf course in Ireland for a couple of days of relaxation disguised as a visit to the country for talks — he has little in common with the prime minister, Leo Varadkar, who is half-Indian and gay.

Onward to France where leaders gathered for ceremonies at several places.  It is easy to forget the extent of that carnage:  over 20,000 French civilians were killed in Normandy alone mostly from aerial bombing and artillery fire.  The Normandy American cemetery holds over 9600 soldiers.  All in all, France lost in the neighborhood of 390,000 civilian dead during the whole war.  Estimates of total deaths across the world range from 70 to 85 million or about 3 percent of the then global population (estimated at 2.3 billion).

Much has been written about conflict resolutions generally from a cold rational perspective.  Emotions like greed, fear and a sense of injustice when unresolved lead only in one direction.  There was a time when individual disputes were given the ultimate resolution through single combat.  Now legal rights and courts are available — not always perfect, not always fair, but neither are humans.

It does not take a genius to extrapolate such legal measures to nations and international courts … which already exist.  Just one problem:  the mighty simply ignore them.  So we wait, and we honor the dead of wars that in retrospect appear idiotic and insane.  Worse is the attempt to justify such insanity through times like the “good war”, a monstrous absurdity.

It usually takes a while.  Then we get leaders who have never seen the horror of war — some have assiduously avoided it — and the cycle starts again.

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To Impeach Or Not To Impeach? That Is The Question

Dr. Arshad M. Khan

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Robert Mueller let loose a thunderbolt midweek.  Donald Trump had not been charged, he said, because it was Department of Justice policy not to charge a sitting president.  Dumping the issue firmly into Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s lap, he reminded us of the purpose of the impeachment process.  According to Mueller there are ten instances where there are serious issues with the president obstructing justice adding that his report never concludes that Trump is innocent.

So here is a simple question:  If Mueller thought the president is not innocent but he did not charge him because of Justice Department policy, and he appears also to favor impeachment, then why in heaven’s name did he not simply state in his report that the preponderance of evidence indicated Trump was guilty?

Nancy Pelosi is wary of impeachment.  According to the rules, the House initiates it and when/if  it finds sufficient grounds, it forwards the case to the Senate for a formal trial.  The Senate at present is controlled by Republicans, who have been saying it’s time to move on, often adding that after two years of investigation and a 448-page report, what is the point of re-litigating the issue?  They have a point and again it leads to the question:  if Special Counsel Mueller thinks Trump is guilty as he now implies, why did he not actually say so?

Never one to miss any opportunity , Trump labels Mueller, highly conflicted, and blasts impeachment as ‘a dirty, filthy, disgusting word’,  He has also stopped Don McGahn, a special counsel at the White House from testifying before Congress invoking ‘executive privilege’ — a doctrine designed to keep private the president’s consultations with his advisors.  While not cited anywhere in the Constitution, the Supreme Court has held it to be ‘fundamental to the operation of government and inextricably rooted in the Separation of Powers under the Constitution.’  Separation of powers keeps apart the executive branch, the legislature and the judiciary, meaning each one cannot interfere with the other.

Nancy Pelosi is under increasing pressure from the young firebrands.  Rep Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez has already expressed the view that it is time to open an impeachment inquiry against Trump given the obstruction of lawmakers’ oversight duty.

Speaker Pelosi is a long-time politician with political blood running through her veins — her father was Mayor of Baltimore and like herself also a US Representative.  To her the situation as is, is quite appealing.  Trump’s behavior fires up Democrats across the country and they respond by emptying their pockets to defeat the Republicans in 2020.  Democratic coffers benefit so why harm this golden goose — a bogeyman they have an excellent chance of defeating — also evident from the numbers lining up to contest the Democratic presidential primaries, currently at 24. 

Will Trump be impeached?  Time will tell but at present it sure doesn’t look likely.

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When Republicans Are In Power, Banks, Real Estate, and Insurance Companies Crush The People

Rahul D. Manchanda, Esq.

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There is certainly a correlation by and between when conservatives and Republicans talk about “de-regulation” and “freedom” of business, in the outright and total crushing of the American people underneath a boot of immorality.

For example, insurance companies will start to increase the use dishonest and unethical “adjustors” to set out to deny lawful proper claims for insurance, such as when someone has fully paid their expensive premiums, but then is cruelly and out of hand denied much needed assistance from these insurance companies for various health problems, automobile accidents, home and renters policy mishaps, professional liability defense, general business liability assistance, property damage, and other types of accidents and mishaps that these insurance companies state that they were designed to protect their customers with.

These insurance companies know fully well that the poor and middle class do not have the ability to hire and retain competent high powered lawyers to defend their interests, either by entangling with them or in dealing with the entities that are coming after them in the above named types of life problems.

The Democrats had created and implemented such consumer watchdog agencies such as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (“CFPB”) and the New York Department of Financial Services (“DFS”) and these agencies were very successful in prosecuting, investigating, and beating back insurance company and banker predatory behavior, but then the lobbying groups for these industries began to buy and pay for Republican whores and populated the Congress and Senate with their “people,” and low and behold, we got an avalanche of “deregulation” from the Executive and Legislative Branches, gutted agencies and replacement of its leaders, all of a sudden leaving the American people at the will and hellish end of the retaliatory insurance and banking industries, and now things are worse than they ever were before.

Similarly, as the Insurance industry benefited from screwing over the American people, the Banking industry simultaneously have begun again to rape the American people, by instituting usurious collections and interest rates, sometimes as high as 50-60%, on such things as student loans in default through no fault of the borrower (due to sickness, injury, loss of employment, bankruptcy) and credit card companies now routinely rape and pillage the American people with ungodly APRs and other “bait and switch” mechanisms designed to fleece their customers, enriching themselves while impoverishing their customers.

All the while these banks and insurance companies are charging more than ever for premiums, simple day to day processes such as ATM machine usage, finance charges, late fees, and other highway robbery-type methods to steal from the American people.

The real estate industry, headed up by men such as Ben Carson of HUD, have now mercilessly began to crush tenants and mortgage holders, denying them basic warranties of safety and habitability, skirting all state and federal regulation so as to make a buck.

“Freedom” as used by Republican and conservative leaders was supposed to mean something different than giving trillion dollar international banks, real estate, and insurance companies the license to rape and pillage the American people, but “deregulation” is the proverbial “wolf in sheep’s clothing” or “trojan horse” by these communist industries to devastate the American people, and they must be reigned in once again by the Democrat led powers in the Congress and the Senate, and perhaps even the Judiciary (state and federal).

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