Connect with us

Middle East

Former President Ahmadinejad may stand for presidency again

Published

on

Iran is going to presidential poll in May 2017. Former Iranian hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who held office from 2005 to 2013, has announced that he will run in the spring 2017 presidential election, is expected to launch his comeback campaign. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is trying to make a political comeback, signaled his desire to return to politics in April and attacked current Iranian President Hassan Rouhani as incompetent.

While French leaders Sarkozy may not face stiff resistance from the party and inner circle, Ahmadinejad might find his fight for presidency this time may not be easy as Iran has signed nuclear deal with USA and now seeks a “soft” diplomacy to reshape its economy. And strengthen security to repel the challenges from Tel Aviv regime. Moreover the Guardian Council in Tehran, according to those who oppose him, may not approve his candidacy for presidency again.

Senior conservative cleric Gholamreza Mesbahi-Moghadam has said that Ahmadinejad lacks the qualifications needed to make a comeback, claiming, “Ahmadinejad is not competent enough to return to power. He has ruined his image among many distinguished figures and this has pushed him to the sidelines.”

This is just a hind but cannot stand for close scrutiny as former strongman has closely knit links everywhere since his assertive diplomacy and defiance to US-Israeli tactics and dictates gave Iran positive image and foes tough challenge.

Following the drubbing they received in February’s parliamentary elections, the hardliners are now pinning their hopes on Ahmadinejad, convinced that only he can prevent reformist Rouhani’s re-election.

While it is still speculative if the incumbent Prescient Rouhani would stake his claims to contest again, Ahmadinejad arrival would make him rethink his intent, if any, of contesting for the Presidency again. – .

Ahmadinejad appears to be more active by the day. His many provincial visits and speeches have even prompted objections from some officials within the government of President Hassan Rouhani. Thus, it seems that Ahmadinejad has not given up on pursuing his goal of a political comeback — especially since some of his comments point to hopes for the early demise of the Rouhani era. Speaking recently at a gathering of his student supporters, Ahmadinejad said, “In the coming months, the pressures of public opinion and inefficiency will rise so much that Rouhani will leave the Cabinet before the month of May.”

But the Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli stated, “Ahmadinejad has been warned that the launch of any political campaign before the official election period is illegal. He needs to have legal permits for his gatherings, not to mention that the content of his speeches is controversial and has the tone of an election campaign. Still, Ahmadinejad continues to ignore these warnings and suggestions and is forging ahead with his activities, just as he did during his time in office.

Competition

Despite presidential elections still eight months away in Iran, potential candidates have been making their moves early as they take on the challenge to deseat the country’s incumbent Hassan Rouhani. Top military commander and head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Quds forces Qassem Soleimani and former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were among the more familiar names.

Denying the rumors, Soleimani has ruled out a run for the presidency. In a statement to Iranian media this week, he accused Iran’s enemies of spreading propaganda and attempting to sow seeds of discord among the nation of Iran. “I am a soldier of Velayat (the guardian referring to Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei) and the Islamic Republic regime and the brave population, which I value more than my own life. God willing, I will remain in this role of soldier until the end of my life,” a statement published by Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News said.

Referred to as the “Shadow Commander” by the West, Soleimani has emerged as ‘the face’ of Iran’s military efforts in Iraq and Syria, as photographs emerged of him on the front lines of the battle against ISIS. Footage of him appearing with Shiite militia in Iraq and Hezbollah units in Syria have spread virally on social media among his fans. Iranians credit Soleimani for saving Baghdad from falling into the hands of ISIS, and he recently has spoken out on several social and domestic issues, beyond the scope of his military responsibilities, leading some to believe he is laying down the seeds of a political campaign,

Despite the lifting of international sanctions following the landmark nuclear deal between world powers and Iran last July, Soleimani remains under a UN-mandated international travel ban, while the USA has maintained its terror designation of Iran’s IRGC Quds Forces.

Choice

Considering that Rouhani would be in the fray again, Ahmadinejad knows that he is the only person who can challenge Rouhani. He also knows that the Principlists have no other candidate except him. Former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf have already faced defeat against Rouhani in the previous vote. They do not have the ability to compete against Rouhani. Also, Ahmadinejad hopes that as the 2017 election nears, he can convince the Principlists to support him

US strategists are obviously deeply worried now with perspective of Ahmadinejad returning to power and ask how can Ahmadinejad who won two presidential elections by relying on Principlist support possibly hope to make a comeback amid blunt criticism from the Principlists? Former conservative lawmaker Ahmad Tavakoli wrote over Telegram back in April, “There are sufficient religious and legal reasons to disqualify Ahmadinejad.” Beyond the Principlist opposition, Ahmadinejad also faces the challenge of getting past the Guardian Council’s vetting of presidential candidates.

Saeed Laylaz, the deputy head of the moderate Executives of Construction Party, said they hope Ahmadinejad and everyone else are qualified for the election because we are principally against the disqualifying of candidates. His foes argue that Ahmadinejad’s presence would l cause division within the Principlist camp and remove the chance of a Principlist consensus; while it will strengthen solidarity among the Reformists surrounding Rouhani.

Indeed, speculation within Principlist circles points to the absence of a new and powerful candidate who can compete against Rouhani in the May 2017 presidential vote. In past elections, the conservatives sent all their other potential candidates to the field — and all have met defeat. Ghalibaf has run for president twice: against Ahmadinejad in 2009 and against Rouhani in 2013. Jalili, the favored candidate of radical Principlists, secured only 11.3% of the vote in 2013, coming in third. Meanwhile, parliament Speaker Ali Larijani ran in the 2005 presidential race, but opted for a seat in parliament after receiving less than 6% of votes. Notably, Larijani has close ties with Rouhani and is unlikely to challenge him in the next presidential vote.

It may be that the Principlists’ main problem with Ahmadinejad is his former chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, a man whose religious beliefs have come under harsh criticism by the more traditional members of the Principlist camp. Mashaei’s divergent viewpoints have been so persistent and prominent that when Ahmadinejad appointed him as his chief of staff for the second term of his presidency, the supreme leader officially objected to the move. The supreme leader once reportedly gave Ahmadinejad a letter asking him to remove Mashaei from the post.

But Ahmadinejad did not abide and thus forced the supreme leader to make the letter public.” But Ahmadinejad’s response was to give Mashaei 18 new posts and make him even more powerful than chief of staff.”

Ahmadinejad

Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, sure of support of Iranians and Spiritual leader is pressing on with his attempts at a political comeback as he aims to upset the country’s so called ‘moderate’ regime responsible for the landmark nuclear agreement with the West.

Ahmadinejad, who led Iran from 2005-2013, was criticized domestically for his economic policies and left Iranian politics with record low ratings after serving two consecutive terms, the maximum permitted under Iran’s constitution. Internationally, Ahmadinejad’s policies have been described as isolationist, as a vociferous supporter of Iran’s controversial nuclear program and repeatedly calling for the annihilation of Israel. Ahmadinejad’s harsh words and aggressive policies led to frequent spars with the West as well as and with Iran’s neighbors.

In June 2009, Ahmadinejad’s reelection victory was called into question by USA and its supporters in Iran who flooded the streets of major cities in the so-called Green Revolution; an uprising led by social media-savvy Iranians, obviously instigated by USA and Israel to destabilize Iran. But they failed. President Obama and other Western leaders came under scrutiny for months to follow for not throwing support behind the protestors in what was deemed a “missed opportunity” for regime change by removing or killing President Ahmadinejad, or at least significant policy and behavioral change by Iran’s government to serve American causes.

Despite insisting that he would retire from politics at the conclusion of his second term, Ahmadinejad has remained politically active and recently made headlines when he wrote a letter to President Obama demanding the return of Iranian assets seized by the USA to compensate victims’ families of the 1983 bombing of the US Marine barracks in Lebanon. The attack left 241 Americans dead, and in 2003 a US judge found the Iranian government “guilty” of ordering the attack which was carried out by Hezbollah, a terror group funded by Iran’s government.

Ahmadinejad remains a popular choice among leading hard-right conservatives who remain opposed to Iran’s nuclear agreement with the West. For some, he is the only one who can truly mount a challenge to the ‘moderate’ rule of Rouhani.

Ahmadinejad’s path is sure to be filled with many challenges, considering that he faces opposition not only among much of the Reformists, but even some figures within his own Principlist camp. Western powers that had tough time during his previous tenure, would feel unease the prospects of his return to power and work to see he is not Iranian president again.

For now, it is uncertain whether the Principlists will be willing to accept another defeat to Rouhani or be ready to succumb to Ahmadinejad and his many challenges. Or perhaps Ahmadinejad’s prediction will come true and there will be no Rouhani in the May 2017 vote.

The presidential elections still eight months away and many things could take place during the rather long period.

Continue Reading
Comments

Middle East

After 10 years of war in Syria, siege tactics still threaten civilians

Published

on

The future for Syria’s people is “increasingly bleak”, UN-appointed rights experts said on Tuesday, highlighting escalating conflict in several areas of the war-ravaged country, a return to siege tactics and popular demonstrations linked to the plummeting economy.

According to the UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria, the country is not safe for refugees to return to, after a decade of war.

The panel’s findings come amid an uptick in violence in the northwest, northeast and south of the country, where the Commissioners highlighted the chilling return of besiegement against civilian populations by pro-Government forces.

“The parties to the conflict continue to perpetrate war crimes and crimes against humanity and infringing the basic human rights of Syrians,” said head of the Commission of Inquiry, Paulo Pinheiro. “The war on Syrian civilians continues, and it is difficult for them to find security or safe haven.”

Scandal of Al Hol’s children

Professor Pinheiro also described as “scandalous” the fact that many thousands of non-Syrian children born to former IS fighters continue to be held in detention in dreadful conditions in Syria’s north-east.

“Most foreign children remain deprived of their liberty since their home countries refuse to repatriate them,” he told journalists, on the sidelines of the 48th session of the Human Rights Council in Geneva.

“We have the most ratified convention in the world, the Convention on the Rights of the Child, is completely forgotten. And democratic States that are prepared to abide to this Convention they neglect the obligations of this Convention in what is happening in Al Hol and other camps and prison places.”

Some 40,000 children continue to be held in camps including Al Hol. Nearly half are Iraqi and 7,800 are from nearly 60 other countries who refuse to repatriate them, according to the Commission of Inquiry report, which covers the period from 1 July 2020 to 30 June 2021. 

Blockades and bombardment

The rights experts also condemned a siege by pro-Government forces on the town of Dar’a Al-Balad, the birthplace of the uprising in 2011, along with “siege-like tactics” in Quineitra and Rif Damascus governorates.

“Three years after the suffering that the Commission documented in eastern Ghouta, another tragedy has been unfolding before our eyes in Dar’a Al-Balad,” said Commissioner Hanny Megally, in reference to the siege of eastern Ghouta which lasted more than five years – and which the commissioners previously labelled “barbaric and medieval”.

In addition to the dangers posed by heavy artillery shelling, tens of thousands of civilians trapped inside Dar’a Al-Balad had insufficient access to food and health care, forcing many to flee, the Commissioners said.

Living in fear

In the Afrin and Ra’s al-Ayn regions of Aleppo, the Commissioners described how people lived in fear of car bombs “that are frequently detonated in crowded civilian areas”, targeting markets and busy streets.

At least 243 women, men and children have been killed in seven such attacks over the 12-month reporting period, they said, adding that the real toll is likely to be considerably higher.

Indiscriminate shelling has also continued, including on 12 June when munitions struck multiple locations in Afrin city in northwest Syria, killing and injuring many and destroying parts of al-Shifa hospital.

Insecurity in areas under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeast Syria has also deteriorated, according to the Commission of Inquiry, with increased attacks by extremist “remnants” and conflict with Turkish forces.

Division remains

The Commissioners noted that although President Assad controls about 70 per cent of the territory and 40 per cent of the pre-war population, there seems to be “no moves to unite the country or seek reconciliation. On the contrary.”

Despite a welcome drop in the level of violence compared with previous years, the Commission of Inquiry highlighted the dangers that continue to be faced by non-combatants

The senior rights experts also highlighted mounting discontent and protests amongst the population, impacted by fuel shortages and food insecurity, which has increased by 50 per cent in a year, to 12.4 million, citing UNFPA data.

“The hardships that Syrians are facing, particularly in the areas where the Government is back in control, are beginning to show in terms of protests by Syrians who have been loyal to the State,” said Mr. Megally. They are now saying, ‘Ten years of conflict, our lives are getting worse rather than getting better, when do we see an end to this?’”

Continue Reading

Middle East

IAEA Director General reaches agreement in Tehran, as Biden’s clock is ticking

Published

on

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi at a press conference. Photo: IAEA/Dean Calmaa

A meeting to resolve interim monitoring issues was held in Tehran on 12 September between the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, and the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi. Grossi was on a visit to Tehran to fix roadblocks on the stalled monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program, which is ever more challenging in a context where there is no diplomatic agreement to revive or supersede the JCPOA. Grossi said in a press conference on 12 September that the IAEA had “a major communication breakdown” with Iran. But what exactly does that mean?


The IAEA monitoring equipment had gone three months without being serviced and Grossi said he needed “immediate rectification” of the issues. He was able to get the Iranian side to come to an agreement. The news from Sunday was that the IAEA’s inspectors are now permitted to service the identified equipment and replace their storage media which will be kept under the joint IAEA and AEOI seals in Iran. The way and the timing are now agreed by the two sides. The IAEA Director General had to push on the terms of the agreement reached in February 2020.

Grossi underlined on Sunday that the new agreement can’t be a permanent solution. Data from the nuclear facilities is just being stored according to what commentators call “the continuity of knowledge” principle, to avoid gaps over extended time periods but the data is not available to inspectors.

When it’s all said and done, basically, it all comes down to the diplomatic level. The American withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear agreement in 2018 keeps undermining the Iran nuclear inspections on the technical level. All the inspection activities have been stalled as a result of the broken deal. The IAEA’s strategy in the interim is that at least the information would be stored and not permanently lost.

Everyone is waiting for the JCPOA to be restored or superseded. As Vali Nasr argued in the New York Times back in April this year, the clock is ticking for Biden on Iran. Iran diplomacy doesn’t seem to be on Biden’s agenda at all at the moment. That makes the nuclear inspectors’ job practically impossible.  Journalists pointed out on Sunday that the Director General’s visit found one broken and one damaged camera in one of the facilities. Grossi assured it has been agreed with Iran that the cameras will be replaced within a few days. The IAEA report notes that it was not Iran but Israel that broke the IAEA cameras in a June drone attack carried out by Israel. Presumably, Israel aimed to show Iran is not complying by committing the violations themselves.

Grossi’s visit was a part of the overall IAEA strategy which goes along the lines of allowing time for diplomacy, without losing the data in the meantime. He added that he thinks he managed to rectify the most urgent problem, which is the imminent loss of data.

The Reuters’s title of the meeting is that the agreement reached on Sunday gives “hope” to a renewed Iran deal with the US, after Iran elected a hardliner president, Ebrahim Raisi, in August this year, but that’s a misleading title. This is not the bit that we were unsure about. The question was never on the Iranian side. No one really expected that the new Iranian president would not engage with the IAEA at all. Earlier in November 2019, an IAEA inspector was not allowed on a nuclear cite and had her accreditation canceled. In November 2020, Iranian lawmakers passed a law that mandated the halt of the IAEA inspections and not to allow inspectors on the nuclear sites, as well as the resuming of uranium enrichment, unless the US sanctions are lifted. In January 2021, there were threats by Iranian lawmakers that IAEA inspectors would be expelled. Yet, the new Iranian President still plays ball with the IAEA.

It is naïve to think that Iran should be expected to act as if there was still a deal but then again, US foreign policy is full of naïve episodes. “The current U.S. administration is no different from the previous one because it demands in different words what Trump demanded from Iran in the nuclear area,” Khamenei was quoted to have said in his first meeting with President Raisi’s cabinet.

“We don’t need a deal – you will just act as if there was still a deal and I will act as if I’m not bound by a deal” seems to be the US government’s line put bluntly. But the ball is actually in Biden’s court. The IAEA Director General is simply buying time, a few months at a time, but ultimately the United States will have to start moving. In a diplomatic tone, Grossi referred on Sunday to many commentators and journalists who are urging that it is time.

I just don’t see any signs on Biden’s side to move in the right direction. The current nuclear talks we have that started in June in Vienna are not even direct diplomatic talks and were put on hold until the outcome of Iran’s presidential elections were clear. US hesitance is making Grossi’s job impossible. The narrative pushed by so many in the US foreign policy space, namely that the big bad wolf Trump is still the one to blame, is slowly fading and reaching its expiry date, as Biden approaches the one-year mark of his presidency.

Let’s not forget that the US is the one that left and naturally is the one that has to restart the process, making the parties come back to the table. The US broke the deal. Biden can’t possibly be expecting that the other side will be the one extending its hand to beg for forgiveness. The US government is the one that ruined the multi-year, multilateral efforts of the complex dance that was required to get to something like the JCPOA – a deal that Republicans thought was never going to be possible because “you can’t negotiate with Iran”. You can, but you need skilled diplomats for that. Blinken is no Kerry. Judging from Blinken’s diplomacy moves with China and on other issues, I just don’t think that the Biden Administration has what it takes to get diplomacy back on track. If he follows the same line with Iran we won’t see another JCPOA in Biden’s term. Several weeks ago, Biden said that there are other options with Iran if diplomacy fails, in a White House meeting with Israel’s new prime minister Bennett. I don’t think that anyone in the foreign policy space buys that Biden would launch a military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. But I don’t think that team Biden can get to a diplomatic agreement either. Biden and Blinken are still stuck in the 2000, the time when others would approach the US no matter what, irrespective of whose fault it was. “You will do as I say” has never worked in the history of US foreign policy. That’s just not going to happen with Iran and the JCPOA. To expect otherwise is unreasonable. The whole “Trump did it” line is slowly and surely reaching its expiry date – as with anything else on the domestic and foreign policy plane. Biden needs to get his act together. The clock is ticking.

Continue Reading

Middle East

Elections represent an opportunity for stability and unity in Libya

Published

on

With just over 100 days until landmark elections in Libya, political leaders must join forces to ensure the vote is free, fair and inclusive, the UN envoy for the country told the Security Council on Friday. 

Ján Kubiš, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) briefed ambassadors on developments ahead of presidential and parliamentary elections due to take place on 24 December. 

They were agreed under a political roadmap stemming from the historic October 2020 ceasefire between Libya’s rival authorities, and the establishment of a Government of National Unity (GNU) earlier this year. 

At the crossroads 

“Libya is at a crossroads where positive or negative outcomes are equally possible,” said Mr. Kubiš.  “With the elections there is an opportunity for Libya to move gradually and convincingly into a more stable, representative and civilian track.” 

He reported that the House of Representatives has adopted a law on the presidential election, while legislation for the parliamentary election is being finalized and could be considered and approved within the coming weeks.  

Although the High National Election Commission (HNEC) has received the presidential election law, another body, the High State Council, complained that it had been adopted without consultation. 

Foreign fighter threat 

The HNEC chairman has said it will be ready to start implementation once the laws are received, and will do everything possible to meet the 24 December deadline. 

“Thus, it is for the High National Election Commission to establish a clear electoral calendar to lead the country to the elections, with support of the international community, for the efforts of the Government of National Unity, all the respective authorities and institutions to deliver as free and fair, inclusive and credible elections as possible under the demanding and challenging conditions and constraints,” said Mr. Kubiš.  

“The international community could help create more conducive conditions for this by facilitating the start of a gradual withdrawal of foreign elements from Libya without delay.” 

Young voters eager 

The UN envoy also called for countries and regional organizations to provide electoral observers to help ensure the integrity and credibility of the process, as well as acceptance of the results. 

He also welcomed progress so far, including in updating the voter registry and the launch of a register for eligible voters outside the country. 

So far, more than 2.8 million Libyans have registered to vote, 40 per cent of whom are women.  Additionally, more than half a million new voters will also be casting their ballots. 

“Most of the newly registered are under 30, a clear testament to the young generation’s eagerness to take part in determining the fate of their country through a democratic process. The Libyan authorities and leaders must not let them down,” said Mr. Kubiš. 

He stressed that the international community also has a responsibility to support the positive developments in Libya, and to stand firm against attempts at derailment.  

“Not holding the elections could gravely deteriorate the situation in the country, could lead to division and conflict,” he warned.  “I urge the Libyan actors to join forces and ensure inclusive, free, fair parliamentary and presidential elections, which are to be seen as the essential step in further stabilizing and uniting Libya.”

Continue Reading

Publications

Latest

Economy41 mins ago

Russia, China and EU are pushing towards de-dollarization: Will India follow?

Authors: Divyanshu Jindal and Mahek Bhanu Marwaha* The USD (United States Dollar) has been the world’s dominant currency since the...

Economy3 hours ago

Today’s World Demands Sustainability

In the Brundtland Report, the United Nations defined sustainable development as development that satisfies current demands without jeopardising future generations’...

Defense5 hours ago

Developments on Korean Peninsula risk accelerating regional arms race

A week full of missile tests; this is the current environment on the Korean Peninsula. On Wednesday, North Korea fired...

South Asia10 hours ago

Panjshir – the last stronghold of democracy in Afghanistan

The Taliban’s rapid advance in Afghanistan has briefly stalled only in the face of strong resistance mounted by the people...

Americas16 hours ago

Biden’s worrisome construct of security and self-defense in the first year of his term

US President Joe Biden’s foreign policy is failing so far. He can’t get the Iran nuclear diplomacy on track. The Afghanistan withdrawal...

Finance18 hours ago

Picking the perfect social media channel

No product or service can be purchased if nobody knows that it exists. This is the function of marketing, which...

Finance18 hours ago

Your brand needs to be on Twitter, here is why

Most of us are familiar with doing business physically through stores, but with the introduction of the internet, there are...

Trending