In the last sixty years or so of the existence of the EU polity we have seen a baffling and somewhat bizarre phenomenon; namely this: while the EU has expanded from six original member countries in the 50s to twenty seven countries with others still waiting in line, albeit one has already exited, separatist and independence movements, redolent of a former rabid nationalism which produced two world wars, have also proliferated.
It is indeed a bit baffling. It is all haphazard, redolent of Machiavelli’s assertion that political events depend on “fortuna” (luck) as much as on the political skills of their performers? Or is it simply an illogical unexplainable contradiction? One may well be tempted to call it such, until one is able to grasp the fact that it is a paradox of sorts; a political paradox.
As we look over the political map of present day EU, we observe Basques, Catalonians, and Galicians who wish to be independent of Spain; Trentino and South Tyrolians from Northern Italy (represented by the Lega Nord party) who wish to be independent of Italy (especially Southern Italy…); Corsicans and Britannians who wish to be independent of France and perhaps, in the case of the Corsicans, return to speaking Italian, their previous language; Flemish who wish to be independent of Belgium dividing the country in French and Dutch speakers ( and this is where the capital of the EU resides); Slovaks who wished to be independent of Czechoslovakia, and so they are now; Estonians and Lithuanians who wished to be independent of Russia, and so they are now; presently, low and behold, we have Scots who wish to be independent of England while remaining in the EU, but are not yet independent. This is perhaps the most surprising of paradoxes. Didn’t the Scots just vote to remain in the UK, barely two years ago? Now, resurgent voices of independence have surfaced once again. This has happened after the exit of Britain from the EU which has deprived many Scottish industries (fishing and oil drilling) of former EU subsidies.
How do we explain this strange puzzle of people desiring to be part of a union greater than a narrow nationalism but also wishing to return to their old ethnic heritage and identity? Is it possible to harmonize the two contradictory impulses?
One possible way to solve this conundrum may be to think of cultural identity as not being equivalent to nationalism, as many people assume. Ethnic pride may initially sound more restrictive, less inclusive than national pride but if one thinks it through carefully, it is actually more vast because it goes beyond mere Machiavellian geo-political power considerations (always integral part of any nationalism) and delves into the essential qualities endowing a whole people with a cultural identity: their language, their art, their religion, their history. To wit, the Gaelic language is something that both Scots and Irish share as an original language spoken by the Celts all over Europe, and therefore a Scotsman may well feel more affinity with an Irishman than with the an Englishman. Anglo-Saxon culture is different from Celtic culture. There was in fact an attempt to make Scotland and Ireland one single country based on their common heritage, despite their obvious geographical separation; but geography is not everything in forming political entities.
Places of Independence-seeking political movements in Europe
And so we have centripetal forces pushing toward federalism, away from pure nationalism, while at the same time we have centrifugal forces pushing toward a return to one’s cultural heritage and independence from the original colonizer and oppressor. This is the paradox which represents a glaring message for EU bureaucrats, namely this: the imposition of political-economic uniformity imposed undemocratically from on high, and parading as idealistic federalism based on shared values, has never worked and never will. Ethnic cultural pride will always win out in the end.
While it remains true that at its extreme it may becomes fascistic racism and xenophobia (and the plethora of right-wing parties all over the EU proves it), it can also be representative of the recognition of one’s heritage. The center will not hold for very long without the cement of a strong cultural identity and a political union without a cultural identity remains a utopia built on sand. Before one builds a united Europe one has to know who is a European and which are the common values that will hold the center of such a union; or one will obtain the cart placed before the horse. “Now that we have made Italy, let’s make the Italians” said Massimo D’Azeglio, an Italian patriot, way back in 1869. Great mistake! If Italian cultural identity had been given greater attention before unification, there probably would not be a Lega Nord to contend with nowadays.
In this regard, stay tuned for the latest surprising scenario: the possible exit of Italy, one of the original founders of the EU, from the euro and/or the EU as expressed in the coming referendum for or against Matteo Renzi’s reform movement in October opposed by the Trump-like populist politician Beppe Grillo. A contest difficult to call since they are both running at 30% of the electorate: Renzi, the PM on the Democratic party, and Grillo on the Star party.To be sure, there is much discontent among the poor and the middle class, as there is in Greece and Spain and other places of the EU too, not to speak of the US where the likes of Trump are reaping the political benefits of such a discontent as Beppe Grillo is reaping them in Italy. It remains to be seen if the EU bureaucrats have ears capable of hearing or will they persist in their cultural deafness. If the latter happens to be the case, history will repeat itself: having built modern Europe on sand (the so called “Newropeans”), i.e., on mere economic-geo-political considerations, they will eventually reap the whirlwind of what they have sown, and the EU utopia will turn out to have been a mere dystopia that lasted only a few decades. What a waste of talents and ideals!
Merkel’s projection regarding nationalist movements in Europe
In recent years, we have repeatedly spoken about the blows that hit the United Europe hard, and resulted in constant and overwhelming crises in this block. The European authorities now refer to “returning to nationalism” as a potential danger (and in some cases, the actual danger!) In this block, and warn against it without mentioning the origin of this danger.
The German Chancellor has once again warned about the rise of nationalism in Europe. The warning comes at a time when other European officials, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have directly or indirectly, acknowledged the weakening of Europe’s common values. This indicates that the EU authorities don’t see the danger of extensive nationalism far from reality.
“Nationalism and a winner-take-all attitude are undermining the cohesion of Europe”, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said. “Perhaps the most threatening development for me is that multilateralism has come under such pressure,” Merkel said. “Europe is facing attacks from the outside and from the inside.”
A simple contemplation on the issue of “return of the United Europe to nationalism” suggests that the current European authorities have played an active role in the desire of their citizens to return to the time before the formation of the European Union. In the 2014 general election, we saw more than 100 right-wing extremist candidates finding way to the European Parliament.
This could be the starting point for making fundamental changes in macroeconomic policies and creating a different relationship between the European leaders and the citizens of this block. But this did not happen in practice.
Although the failure of European leaders to manage the immigration crisis and, most importantly, the continuation of the economic crisis in some of the Eurozone countries has contributed to the formation of the current situation, but it should not be forgotten that the growth of radical and nationalist parties in Europe has largely been due to the block’s officials incapability in convincing European citizens about the major policies in Europe. In this regard, those like Angela Merkel and Macron don’t actually feel any responsibility.
Undoubtedly, if this process doesn’t stop, the tendency to nationalism will spread across the Europe, and especially in the Eurozone. European officials are now deeply concerned about next year’s parliamentary elections in Europe. If this time the extreme right parties can raise their total votes and thus gain more seats in the European Parliament, there will be a critical situation in the Green Continent.
The fact is that far-right extremists in countries such as France, Sweden, Austria and Germany have been able to increase their votes, and while strengthening their position in their country’s political equations, they have many supporters in the social atmosphere.
Finally, the German Chancellor remarks, shouldn’t be regarded as a kind of self-criticism, but rather are a new projection of the European leaders. Merkel, Macron and other European officials who are now warning about the emergence of nationalism in Europe should accept their role in this equation.
This is the main prerequisite for reforming the foundations in Europe. If they refuse to feel responsible, the collapse of the European Union will be inevitable, an issue that Merkel and Macron are well aware of.
First published in our partner MNA
Dayton Peace Accord 23 Years On: Ensured Peace and Stability in Former Yugoslavia
For the past twenty-three years life has been comparatively peaceful in the breakaway republics of the former Yugoslavia. The complicated civil war that began in Yugoslavia in 1991 had numerous causes and began to break up along the ethnic lines. The touching stories and the aftermath effects of the breakaway republics of Bosnia- Herzegovina, Croatia and in Kosovo are still unfolding. Though the numbers of deaths in the Bosnia- Herzegovina conflict in former Yugoslavia are not known precisely, most sources agree that the estimates of deaths vary between 150,000 to 200,000 and displaced more than two million people. During the conflict a Srebrenica a North-eastern enclave of Bosnia once declared as a United Nations (UN ) safe area” saw one of the worst atrocity since second world war.
It has been estimated that more than 8,000 Muslim Bosniaks were massacred in Srebrenica and it was one of the most brutal ethnic cleansing operations of its kind in modern warfare. The US brokered peace talks revived the a peace process between the three warring factions in Bosnia- Herzegovina. For Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina a United States (US ) -brokered peace deal reached in Dayton on 21st November 1995. In a historic reconciliation bid on 14 December 1995 , the Dayton Peace Accord was signed in Paris, France, between Franjo Tudjman president of the Republic of Croatia and Slobodan Milosevic president of the Federal Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro), Alija Izetbegovic, president of the Republic of Bosnia-Herzegovina.
When conflict in Bosnia- Herzegovina, Croatia ended, the reconciliation began between ethnically divided region. The US played a crucial role in defining the direction of the Peace process. In 1996, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) -led 60,000 multinational peace enforcement force known as the Implementation Force (IFOR)) was deployed to help preserve the cease-fire and enforce the treaty provisions. Thereafter, the Court was established by Resolution 808 and later, Resolution 827 of the United Nations Security Council, which endorsed to proceed with setting up of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) to try crimes against humanity . International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) was the first United Nations (UN) war crimes tribunal of its kind since the post-second world war Nuremberg tribunal.
In the late 1990’s, as the political crisis deepened a spiral of violence fuelled the Kosovo crisis between the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) and the Yugoslav forces. Unlike the Bosnia- Herzegovina, Kosovo was a province of Serbia, of former Yugoslavia that dates back to 1946, when Kosovo gained autonomy as a province within Serbia. It is estimated that more than 800,000. Kosovos were forced out of Kosovo in search of refuge and as many as 500,000 more were displaced within Kosovo.
Subsequent t hostilities in Kosovo the eleven week air campaign led by NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) against Yugoslavia in 1999 the Yugoslavian forces pulled troops out of Kosovo NATO. After the war was over, the United Nations Security Council, under the resolution 1244 (1999) approved to establish an international civil presence in Kosovo, known as the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). Nevertheless UNMIK regulation No 1999/24 provided that the Law in Force in Kosovo prior to March 22, 1989 would serve as the applicable law for the duration of the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).
In this context reconciliation is a key to national healing of wounds after ending a violent conflict. Healing the wounds of the past and redressing past wrongs is a process through which a society moves from a divided past to a shared future. Over the years in Serbia, Bosnia- Herzegovina, Croatia and in Kosovo the successful peace building processes had happened. The success of the peace building process was possible because of participation of those concerned, and since appropriate strategies to effectively approach was applied with all relevant actors. The strengthening of institutions for the benefit of all citizens has many important benefits for the peace and stability of former Yugoslavia. Hence, the future looks bright for the Balkan states of Serbia, Bosnia- Herzegovina, Croatia and Kosovo.
Hungarian Interest, Ukraine and European Values
Diplomatic conflicts that have recently arisen between Hungary and its neighboring countries and the European Union as a whole most clearly show the new trend in European politics. This trend is committing to national and state values of a specific European country, doubting the priority of supranational interests within the European Union. Political analyst Timofey Bordachev believes that “the era of stale politics and the same stale politicians, who make backstage decisions based on the“ lowest common denominator,” are finally coming to an end. Politicians with a new vision of the world order come to power, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Austrian Federal Chancellor Sebastian Kurtz, or the new head of the Italian Interior Ministry, leader of the right-wing League of the North Party, Matteo Salvini ”.
It is not the first year that Hungary is trying to protect the interests of its citizens and the state from external influence, to protect the Hungarians in the territory of neighbouring states by establishing for this a special position (Commissioner for the development of the Transcarpathian region of Ukraine), to determine relations with other countries on the basis of their attitude to the rights of Hungarians. This is how conflicts with the European Union arose, after Hungary refused to let migrants into the country, in the same manner, a conflict arose with Ukraine, which is trying to build a state ideology, based on nationalism, which a priori does not provide for the proper level of realization and protection of the rights of non-titular nations.
In relation to Hungary, Ukraine follows the same policy as in relation to Russia – to initiate various accusations, to call for punishment, to talk about the inconsistency with European values of the Hungarian policy under the leadership of Orban. Doing so Kiev has its multifaceted interest: cooperation with NATO and the EU, support for any decisions of Brussels, the anti-Russian course, domestic policy based on the nationalist ideology. And in all these areas Hungary poses a problem for Ukraine. In the description of relations with Hungary Kiev even uses the word “annexation“.
Hungary is hardly planning to seize any Ukrainian territory, but on what grounds Ukraine falsely accuses Hungary of its annexation intentions in relation to Transcarpathia? The Ukrainian side highlights several positions:
Issuing Hungarian passports to Ukrainian citizens (ethnic Hungerians)
This is an old story, it has come to light again recently due to the growth of Ukrainian nationalism. Moreover, there are concerns about the implementation by Hungary of the “Crimean scenario” in relation to Transcarpathia.
The Hungarian government has created the position of “Commissioner for the development of Ukraine’s Transcarpathian region and the program for the development of kindergartens in the Carpathian region”.
Ukraine demanded an explanation. A note of protest was delivered to the Hungarian Charge d’Affaires in Ukraine, and the Foreign ministers of Ukraine and Hungary had a telephone conversation on the problem. Hungary continues to ignore the requirements of Kiev.
Ukraine fears further disintegration processes
At the same time, in Kiev there is no understanding of the fact that combining the ideology of nationalism with the country’s national diversity and European integration is hardly possible.
Ukrainian experts note the growth of separatism in the Transcarpathian region, as well as the “strange behavior” of the governor, who plays on the side of Hungary. They also complain that “pro-Ukrainian ideology”(?) is not being сonsolidated in Transcarpathia, and this region is not controlled and monitored by the Ministry of information. In a word, the state is losing control over the territory, which it neither develops nor controls. Such behavior of the governor and the region’s residents may indicate that the state is not sufficiently present in the lives of residents of Transcarpathia, and this a financial and humanitarian drawback they compensate with the help of Hungary, – experts believe.
Apparently, Ukraine is unable to reach an agreement with Hungary as relations are tense. In response to the Ukrainian law on education, adopted in the fall of 2017, which infringes the rights of national minorities, Budapest blocked another, the third, Ukraine-NATO meeting. Ukraine witnessed this embarrassing situation in April 2018. At the same time elections were held in Hungary, in which Viktor Orban’s party won a majority in the parliament. Such a tough stance of Budapest in relation to the Ukrainian educational policy Kiev considered to be just a sign of electoral populism. However, this was a mistake.
Viktor Orban’s victory in spring 2018 was convincing, and a convincing victory means obvious support of his migration policies as well as his support for compatriots abroad. The party of Orban – Fides – not only won a majority but a constitutional majority – 133 of the 199 seats in the National Assembly of Hungary.
There is no doubt that Hungary has become Ukraine’s another serious opponent in the process of its European integration. And it is unlikely that either country will take a step back: there will be presidential elections in Ukraine soon, and in Hungary, the victory won by Orban, apparently, confirms the approval of his independent foreign policy by the citizens. So the conflict is likely to develop.
First published in our partner International Affairs
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