US vice-president Joe Biden is in Turkey to help shore up the languishing relation between the US and Turkey. The Turkish-US alliance has reached a new low ever since the coup that almost overthrew President Erdogan from power. Rumors are suggesting the US will relocate its strategically placed nuclear warheads from Turkey to Romania. This movement of US nuclear arms, which have been stationed in Turkey since the Cold War, signals a new shift in the trajectory of US-Turkish relationship.
Since the coup, President Erdogan has declared that the US based cleric, Gulen, a one-time supporter turned challenger, and his followers were behind the orchestrated plan to kill him and overthrow his government. Others claim that the attack was staged, similar to the Reichstag bombing, in order for Erdogan to consolidate power and eliminate all his rivals. Due to the scale and enormity of the coup, the potential for a false flag attack might not be accurate but anything is possible. Either way, the failed coup has given Erdogan not only an opportunity but also has provided him a popular mandate to purge all his opposition.
The US has been viewing the entire situation from a distance. After the coup appeared to have failed, there was some measure of support for Erdogan’s government, but the Obama administration was still somewhat moot on the entire ordeal. Yet, what has caused this rift between two close allies is the reticence of the US to hand over Gulen to Turkish authorities.
Gulen had left Turkey after his parting of ways with Erdogan. Even though not a US citizen, Gulen has maintained his residence in Pennsylvania influencing events from afar, according to the Turkish government. In the wake of the botched coup, the Turkish government has repeatedly requested the extradition of the Islamist leader but to no avail. The Turkish government views such non-compliance by the US as backing of Gulen and his movement, which is accused of being behind the coup. This refusal has led to the deterioration of the US-Turkish alliance that was and is pivotal for the region.
Erodogan’s Turkey appears to be undergoing an internal purge of loyalists to Gulen as well as any other potential opposition on the domestic front while it seems to be undergoing similar tectonic shifts in its foreign affairs. After remedying its issues with Israel and Russia, Erdogan appears to be bonding ties with the latter. In the wake of a new emerging axis between Russia and Iran, Turkey appears to be falling under its sway. Such a shift in Turkish affairs will be a detrimental loss to the US in both the short and long term.
Turkey’s location, position, and capabilities makes it one of the most important geo-strategic allies the US has in the region and perhaps the world. Aside from possessing the second largest army in NATO, Turkey’s air base at Incirlik and location at the mouth of Russia’s access to the Mediterranean has helped keep Russia contained for decades. Now this can all change. The conflict in Syria can be taking a turn in favor of Assad due to Turkey’s cozying up to Iran and Russia, Assad’s patrons. If Assad is able to solidify his power, thanks in part to a Turkish détente or even worse support, the US will be dealt a large blow in its geopolitical ambitions in the Levant. Simultaneously, Russia no longer has to fear a potent US ally at its throat, now it can potentially have a partner who grants it unimpeded access throughout the Mediterranean.
Even worse, reports emerging out of the region indicate the US military at the Incirlik air base are being held in a de facto hostage situation, while Turkey works out its internal and international affairs without the fear of a US reprisal due to vulnerability of American troops stationed in the country. Turkey appears to be undergoing a transformation metamorphosis in its identity as a nation and member of the international community. The potential loss of Turkey is not only another failure by the Obama Administration but a long term blow for US foreign policy for the region and world.