The other day my friend while discussing Kashmir’s worsening situation literally rebuked me for writing yet another opinion on Kashmir’s current uprising and prevailing mass unrest, reacted brutally so far by security forces leaving about sixty nine civilians dead and thousands injured.
The point is whether mass cries and scores of articles, opinions or commentaries, etc, on Kashmir’s worst uprising so far have made any difference on the ground situation, as far as the tactful tackling or peace building or approaching the angry and protesting people is concerned? The answer is a clear no.
Why is it so, there are reasons. The reason is not that the nation does not politically understand Kashmir and its issues or what people refer to when they talk of UN Resolutions, Plebiscite or right to self determination or Azadi, etc,. The nation seems more worried about geo-politics and cannot afford to see its hostile neighbor coming closer. Also Kashmiri people understand that security forces or local police are trained personal and do what they are asked to do and do not do things on their own. Therefore whatever, killings or torture so far in the valley cannot be attributed only to forces and their mishandling but to the political masters who control them. The question is why so many killings don’t still matter and apart from night raids and intimidation against masses, what positive and reasonable efforts are being done on the ground to normalize the situation? Is there any, I doubt.
A Dangerous Tit for Tat
Now there is a strange dichotomy and a tit for tat situation when the uprising is in its second month. Strikes or shut down or in common parlance hartals during the day called by the resistance camp and stressed religiously by militants as a direct action of dissent are followed by masses. On the other hand forces now impose curfew during the night time when people were actually moving out after day long shutdowns. The two camps, i mean forces and separatists, have therefore shared the whole 24 hours of a Kashmiri in equal proportion leaving him completely breathless. People protest during the day, forces beat them in the night. Forces barging in peoples’ homes at night and smashing window panes is also on. A million stones for a million pellets. When it comes to Kashmir context, we have developed a strong culture of direct action in terms of hartals since decades now but till date without any significant results as everybody takes it as a normal affair of life now. Still people defy curfews for protests and follow hartals religiously. The reason is the system in place which is crippled and has no credibility among the masses. The power elite has even has lost guts to face the same people who voted them to power. They only offer sermons of peace without actually doing anything for it and play blame game to escape queries. Justifying violence in Kashmir is easy and labeling Pakistan for everything is much easier but understanding the woes of and approaching the masses especially now when the use of power has crossed all limits seems very difficult. This difficult situation is further made impossible by politicians who are either in opposition or anti-Mehbooba by their rhetoric. The only thing so far constructive they have done is approaching the President and the PM in the centre. Hartal calendars keep appearing and updating like examination date sheets and calls for bandhs and chalos’, etc, continue only to be curbed or foiled by the state. When hartal time is over, forces start their turn. Where will it all end, nobody knows. What is the way out; nobody knows even not the state at the moment.
Kashmir has been suffering since centuries and witnessed a plethora of unaccounted oppression and long drawn conflict with linkages to cruel history. This has slowly led to coping strategies among masses and they have developed enough resilience and honed survival instincts and ability to survive under all kinds of adverse situations. During the acute conflict situation in 1990’s there used to be hartals for months together, like Dargah Hazratbal siege (1993) and long drawn hartals, massive uprisings of 2008 and 2010 (the new ragdo culture) but life never stopped despite acute situations. Also for any act or activity that starts hampering the economic interest of the Kashmiris, they quickly discover a way to overcome, manoeuvre or bypass it. Also people in Kashmir now have turned self medicos and psychologists or counselors as well. They witness the worst but take it easy now because they know there is no way out but to live it. Same is the case with the mass protests or bandhs that Kashmir followed and preferred over violent conflict but not without a range of repercussions. This time the rage has crossed all limits and Burhan Wani incident on July 8, played just a trigger.
Media Trials only Alienate Further
While Kashmir’s 2016 uprising is on, many media persons were thrashed either by masses or by security forces. Why masses don’t believe what they call Indian media can be attributed to venom that prime time channels spew on Kashmir and its people. Over last few years, people of Kashmir have become well aware of the true intentions, biases, and political games of media and large chunks of youth oppose their (prime time channels) Kashmir policy, goals and aspirations. Even media channels who insult every Kashmiri panelist very well know what is ailing Kashmir and what people want but their TRP craze changes the whole discourse on Kashmir that only leads to provocation and alienation besides strengthening the dissent on the ground. Baring a few media groups, Kashmir and Kashmiris are maligned and presented differently to the nation and labeled even as terrorists. Such a venomous approach further alienates people as their point of view hardly comes to surface.
Youth and Dissent
Some of the very meaningful manifestations were seen during the floods in September 2014 where the same dissenting youth saved thousands of lives. Why the same youth are now on streets against the power reflects the oppressive designs of the state that have forced them to do so. Why isn’t the culture of dissent changing in the valley and why efforts have still not been made to approach youth, remains a question to ponder over? Does Kashmir need new ways to display anger or oppression, also needs a deeper thought as the fallout is so expensive given the prevailing bloodshed? For a pellet or a bullet cannot be an answer to a stone, State is yet to ban the lethal weapons and justify crisis mishandling by least equipped security personnel merely as a self defence or a small sorry after a murder.
What is the way-out to all this mess? The answer is peace but the very peace will be felt only by addressing human rights abuse so far and bringing the culprits to justice. How is Noman- the little son of murdered lecturer Shabir Mangoo-who was beaten to death by forces different from the Aleppo’s (Syria) five year old boy Omran-who was pulled out of the rubble of a bombed building in Syria recently which made the whole world cry? Is Kashmir becoming India’s Aleppo by such heinous crimes and why isn’t the nation crying for Noman? What is such an unaccounted violence going to teach the young children like Noman? Why is the State hell bent on turning Kashmiri youth into a lost generation. Such a catastrophe is actualizing gradually as resistance discourse and the masses’ resolve irrespective of caring about economy, value of life or scare of torture is going hand in hand. Who will address this dangerous trend? At least bullets and pellets or beating people to death in night raids or routine abuse will not address this.
Today’s well read, upward looking and a progressive Kashmiri is wise enough. He is articulate in his content as well. He raises questions in every TV show, conference or seminar on Kashmir, human rights, democracy, etc,. He has learnt a new dissent but needs satisfactory answers to his genuine queries which he never gets and in turn is labeled as seditious or anti-national. He demands a true answer on the question of recent killings and torture, he recalls Bijbehara massacre, Dardpora widows, half widows, Kunan-Poshpora mass rapes, Asiya-Neelofar double rape and murder, Pathribal massacre, Wandhama massacre, Chattisingpora tragedy, suffering of Kashmiri Pandits, disappearances & mass nameless graves, fake encounters like Machil tragedy, youth arrested and criminalized under PSA, prolonged detentions of leaders, muzzled voices, time and again gagged communication in the name of law and order, hijacked democracy and futile Bandhs, unaccounted killings under draconian AFSPA, etc,. Is the nation ready to address these grievances and prove that Kashmiris’ have all Azadi like the rest of Indians? He is made to feel like another Indian when he has been already made into a monster and even labeled a terrorist. The troll brigade online keep abusing them and media houses even YouTube keeps allowing such abusive comments.
Look For a Way-out Now
There is a dire need to address the current violent social unrest and it should not be taken or forgotten like past uprisings. Kashmir’s new social movements are now emanating from internet, use of new media, intellectual and political discourses. Still there are enough believers of peace diplomacy and functional interlocutions, fruitful and result oriented interactions and mediations provided the government in power initiates such a dialogue. Also people aspire for reconciliation and establishment of truth and accountability commissions which need to be respected. The only thing that remains to be actualized is the empathetic power apparatus that treats people their own and really care about blindly slapping PSA’s on youth and unaccounted use of bullets and pellets to suppress but feel the pain of civilian killings day in and day out and try practical measures to stop it. At the moment nothing but use of force is the only reality on the ground.
The nation has failed to listen to and harness the potential of Kashmiri youth who have always been seen as a threat rather than an opportunity to make peace in the trouble torn region. They are active in politics and are brilliant in administration and entering in every sphere of life but they have grievances which cannot be answered every time by force and bullets and pellets.. They are fed up with shrewd politics and the policies of the great divide. They are becoming able scientists, researchers, writers, administrators, etc, who know their way and I am sure who can work for a different Kashmir which believes in peace and pluralism and is highly opposed to oppression, inequality and exclusion. This all can happen provided they are given a space and a platform to have their say. They are allowed to protest peacefully and are approached by authorities to address their grievances. They just demand justice and that must be delivered by thinking Kashmir as a political problem and treating Kashmir as the people of Kashmir not just its mountains and lands. Hatred only begets hatred and indifference only breeds chaos and alienation.
I am sure the nation has not lost vision on Kashmir but certainly before the PM spoke on the youth killings and the need for a dialogue beyond development discourse, nation seemed not caring about Kashmir. The Home Minister’s second visit to the valley for making peace is a welcome step and should bear fruits of peace in the valley.
This is Pakistan
With an unprecedented progress in politico-socio-economic domains, Pakistan has a new face in the world. It has not only successfully corrected misplaced perceptions about it, but the internal and external circumstances around it have also changed, which has helped shaping Pakistan its renewed look according to changed regional and international environment. The successes at the security front has also led to the economic progress in Pakistan.
In result of Pakistan’s fight against terrorism and anti-extremism operations, it lost tens of thousands of people, including soldiers and civilians. Pakistan’s strong resolve together with sustained military operations against terrorist elements, however, brough back peace and stability in the country. According to Security Report 2019 by Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS), “Pakistan witnessed a further decline in the number of terrorist incidents and consequent casualties… terrorist attacks this year decreased by around 13 percent as compared to 2018.” The report clearly depicted a gradual decrease in terrorist attacks and casualties since 2009. In this regard, Pakistan’s National Action Plan (NAP) helped eliminating the menace of terrorism from the country. The improved security situation in the country resulted in the economic dividends in the shape of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Pakistan is also appreciated for its nuclear material safety. In its annual report, the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) – a leading United States non-proliferation watchdogdivulged that “Pakistan’s improvements in the Security and Control Measures category are significant because strengthened laws and regulations result in durable boosts in Pakistan’s score as well as provide sustainable security benefits.” While appreciating Pakistan’s further improvement in nuclear materials’ safety, Laura Kennedy, a former United States diplomat, tweeted that “one welcome bit of news reported by #NTIindex is that #Pakistan ranked as most improved in security of those countries holding nuclear materials.”
Pakistan’s fight against Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) is used as a role model by developed countries of the world. The Government of Pakistan (GoP) revealed a PKR 1.13 trillion relief package to help to the powerless and securing industry and other organizations. The concept of ‘Smart Lockdown’ also reaped its dividends and Pakistan has come out from the dangers of this deadly virus.
On the socio-economic front, Pakistan is making progress as well. For instance, the current account deficit has reduced from US$ 20 billion to US$ 3 billion together with a significant decrease in trade and fiscal account deficits. The stalled construction of Diamer-Bhasha dam has also been approved, which will result in additional water supplies for better agricultural production. There has been increase in the rights activism i.e., Transgender Pride March, Aurat March, Climate March, and Student Solidarity March. Women sports stars of Pakistan won international medals and recognitions.For instance, 8-year-old Pakistani Taekwondo star Ayesha Ayaz won a bronze medal for Pakistan at the 7thFujairah Taekwondo Open Championship in United Arab Emirates (UAE); Hajra Khan won 3 Guinness World Records; Mahnoor Shahzad won the Annapurna International Badminton Tournament; Nida Dar became the first Pakistani woman to sign a deal with an international cricket league, Sydney Thunder; Shahida Abbasi from Hazara won one of the total two gold medals for Pakistan at the South Asian Games 2019; and Mallak Faisal Zafar won first position in the Basic Novice Girls II category at the 24th International Eiscup Innsbruck 2019. Test cricket also returned to Pakistan.
Culturally, Pakistan is projecting itself more prominently. Pakistani celebrities are mamking it to international fashion weeks – Mushk Kaleem and Alicia Khan walked the ramp for Milan Fashion Week 2019. Pakistani film Laal Kabootar won the Vancouver International South Asian Film Festival for the Best Feature Film Award. ActressMahira Khan was appointed National Goodwill Ambassador for UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, strengthening the bond between the people of Pakistan and the international community. Moreover, Mehwish Hayat was appointed ambassador to UK based international humanitarian charity, Penny Appeal.
On the entrepreneurial front, 9 Pakistanis made it to Forbes’ coveted 30 under 30 Asia list: Ahmed Rauf Essa: Founder, Telemart; Karishma Ali, President, Chitral Womens Sports Club; Laila Kasuri, Water Analyst, Global Green Growth Institute; Hanaa Lakhani, Hasan Usmani,Gia Farooqi and MoneebMian, Cofounders, Roshni Rides, Zain Ashraf, Founder, Seed Out; and Zainab Bibi, Founder, Pakistan Society for Green Energy (PSGE).
Regionally, Pakistan’s foreign policy is paying its dividends. Pakistan’s relations among Iran, Afghanistan, Sri-Lanka, Russia, United States and others has improved significantly. Overall, there is many encouraging events happening in and around Pakistan.
Franklin Roosevelt has rightly put it, ‘In politics, nothing happens accidentally. If anything happens, it’s palpable that it planned this way’. Numerous features have been defining pre-pandemic world politics over the years. The current situation shows that pandemic will only reinforce largely five global fault lines that have been characterizing the global environment even in the pre-pandemic phase. Form this we can extrapolate the future course of global politics.
The first and the obvious feature is the rising multi-polarity with power being diffused vertically and horizontally between countries and within countries because citizens become more impart by accessible cheaper technologies. Therefore, global power especially economic power continues to be redistributed while the state power also continues to be eroded by the greater influence of non-state actors both good and bad. In today’s world, no single power can achieve outcomes on its own. It can only do so in conjunction or with the cooperation of other states. Since the Second World War, this pandemic is the first global crisis in which US leadership has been absent.
Secondly, the resurgence of competition and tensions between the big powers in the global environment have come into sight. US-China confrontation has become the most consequential and geopolitical development, which is going to influence and shape the world in the coming years. It can be seen that an outbreak of trade and tech war during the pre-pandemic will continue in the future. Political tensions are also at a record high. President Donald Trump of the United States has been using hostile rhetoric against China. Because of the severe actions taken by the US, China has reached its limits and started pushing back.
Thirdly, global powers are retreating from multilateralism and a rule-based international system. The renunciation of international agreements and treaties has been witnessed over the months. The irony is that the pandemic demands greater solidarity and cooperation but quite the opposite has happened, where there is an absence of international solidarity and much less collaboration. The USA has renounced a long list of treaties including the Iranian nuclear deal, Paris Agreement on Climate Change, Intermediate Nuclear Force Agreement (INF), and recently the Open Skies agreement. It has also walked out of key multilateral institutions such as the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva and the WHO more recently.
Another feature is the rise of populist leaders who are often described as strongmen. Although it’s debatable how much they deserve the description of strong men. Populist leaders act unilaterally with impunity as well as seek to rewrite the rules of game either in the world or their region depending upon their capability to manage. They are mostly disdainful toward international norms. In South Asia, the grimmest example is Prime Minister Narendra Modi who is taking brutal and illegal actions not only in occupied Kashmir but also within India by pursuing communal politics.
Ultimately, there would be an emergence of anti-globalization sentiment due to multiple factors. The UN will be celebrating its 75th anniversary which is going to be a historic moment while American threatens to leave the World Health Organization (WHO) permanently. In this unenviable situation, the UN has been under great strain because its main agency which deals with the health crisis is under attack due to curtailment of funding by Donald Trump. Furthermore, certain leaders of the west are going to reject the existing trading regimes because they cannot compete anymore. The prevailing situation in those countries demands to remake global supply chains and they intend to reduce their dependence on China. Apart from that, plans are considered to move towards setting up local hubs of manufacture and supply.
In a nutshell, there is going to be a reversal of many aspects of globalization. Protectionism, trade wars, and to some extent travel restrictions will be a new reality. Right-wing populist leaders will use the health crisis to reinforce their policy preference for closed borders, strict immigration laws, and the ban on the free movement of labour that has been seen in recent decades. The future course of the most important bilateral relationship of our century which is between China and the United States will have a huge impact on the global economy as well as on the international order and multilateral institutions. Pandemic has further strained the relationship and resulted in trading accusations and allegations from both sides. Summarily, that has been described as the new cold war by many. The question arises whether these two global powers will arrive at modus vivendi or will there be a standoff. This has become a more enduring feature of the global landscape.
To round off the whole debate, the World is possibly at one of the history’s most unsettled periods in international relations with the atomization of the international system. This is an uncharted territory which the world has not seen before. For Pakistan, there are going to be strategic, political, and economic implications because it seeks to form good relations with both countries. Pakistan ought to understand that in the long run, its strategic future lies with China rather than the US.
Prime Minister K.P. Oli of Nepal miss the opportunity
In Nepal, Prime Minister K. P. Oli seems to stay in power by disrespecting his party members. He doesn’t care about agreement made with his party co-leaders Prachanda regarding power sharing after Oli’s 2.5 years reign. He bluntly made a statement that his party members are meeting covertly in hotels of Kathmandu to overthrow him with the assistance of India. This resulted to the seeding of conflict within party allowing Chinese ambassador running door to door for negotiating with party leaders to reconcile. Chinese ambassador to Nepal is engaging with Nepal Communist Party(NCP) leaders to keep K. P Oli in power but India wants to overthrow him. The Prime Minister post in Nepal is now became the platform where two big powers are colliding.
Oli’s 2.5 years in office achievement is not satisfactory. The two underperforming arena are Foreign Policy & Economy. In Foreign Policy, Nepal is facing proxy war from the US-China global confrontation heat, India’s assertiveness & defensive approach & Chinese greater engagement in Nepal comparing to past. Secondly, Nepal’s philosophical confusion whether to continue full liberal capitalism model set by Nepali Congress or follow socialism model based on the ambition of communism. Oli’s team is now surrounded by capitalist forcing them to decide in favor of them. By theory, they have to work for pro-poor(because they are communist). Secondly, capitalist lobby and party cadres aspiration smash together—every basic commodities like health, education should be free as said by cadres and capitalist see business in these sectors. Confrontation between party cadres aspiration and capitalist has made economy standstill. COVID-19 impact is bringing Nepal migrant workers back home. No one has plan to resettle them. Dependency with India is very much high. In 2017, Nepal imports from India worth US$6520 million( 64.95% of out of total imports) whereas Chinese exports to Nepal is worth of US$1267 million(12.63% out of total imports in Nepal). These two immediate neighbors exports more than 75% of commodities to Nepal making Nepal highly reliant state.
Oli instead of trimming down this dependency with India—engaged in “nationalist’ war. He is unaware about India that his Sudurpaschmin & Karnali province youth has a employment opportunity in India. These provinces has very low HDI comparing with countrywide index. The HDI of Sudurpaschmin is 0.478 and Karnali province is 0.469. Youths of these provinces going to India for work because of very low job prospects on Nepal. This our ground reality. Underestimating this reality, Oli rhetoric on “Indian virus is more lethal than Chinese virus” had damaged the bilateral relationship to very extent. Unfortunately, the impact of such damage wont’ have to bear by him but by the youth of Sudurpaschim and Karnali who are working in millions in India because we are clear Post COVID-19 Nepal won’t have tremendous job boom in these provinces. So, they are again forced to go back to their work. During their presence in various job stations of India, they may be disrespected and bullied based on the Nepal’s PM statement.
Secondly, Oli mishandling of foreign policy of Nepal—–becoming suicidal for Nepal. Nepal had long enjoyed a friendly relationships with almost every powers centers of the world. During the time of the Cold War also, Nepal had managed to deal effectively with both Russia & the US. But this time, Nepal’s reactionary foreign policy tactics fuelled by Oli had made our immediate neighbors irritated and had also welcomed the US geostrategic presence in Nepal; knowingly or unknowingly. Each neighbors are having lack of trust in current Nepali government and wants to secure their interest by “overt or covert” operation. Nepal’s Non-aligned foreign policy is seriously being challenged by Nepal’s unorganized engagement in India-China-US frontiers. We are now came across crossroads—We are dependent on India for food, Close to China for political backup & supporting communist regime and more closer to the US for financial support. This will bring us to nowhere. India and China has sense of Competition & Collaboration(2C), US-China has a global confrontation on many sense. Nepal’s closeness to India is not liked by mass public in Nepal. Nepal’s communist party ally with China is not liked by India & the US. This is where the current ball is trapped. Nepal is in complete dilemma. The Belt & Road Initiative; the signature grand strategy of China & Indo Pacific Strategy(IPS) of the US are both ideologically confronts with each other. And, Nepal wants take advantage of these two based on the fragile diplomatic capacity that Nepal has.
Inside home politics, Oli has managed to concentrate power within him. The three powerful departments are: National Investigation Department, Department of Revenue Investigation & Department of Money Laundering Investigation have brought under the Prime Minister’s office. This meaning, Intelligence department for “covert or overt” operation for his rivals and the remaining two “money” related department for “cleaning up” the money from offshore and freeing up the corruption charges for his loyal. This is dangerous. His path put us on doubt whether he wants to become new “dictator” for Nepal. Secondly, his jokes are not working anymore on public like that of pre-election period. Everyone is irritated. Oli crack jokes even in parliament at a time when country is hard hit by COVID-19. He suggest public to have turmeric powder as a solution to COVID-19 cure—which is a laughable matter for everyone. Unfortunately, this is not proven scientifically. Next to it, Oli is critically ill. He recently had a second Kidney transplant. How to become assure such critically ill person with the support of medicines can perform best for the country? He is even “misusing” president of Nepal to take decision in favor of himself. In recent time, President quickly approved the prorogation of the session of the parliament sent by the cabinet. This is a thinkable matter. How can institution like “President” can decide instantly without analyzing its constitutional & political challenges of the recommendation sent by the cabinet. Oli is hardly a school pass out leader and always vocal to “defame” intellectuals of Nepal. Nepali intellectuals irrespective of independent or democrats values are fade up Oli words. So, no use of criticizing such move of cabinet.
When his party members started to dethrone him for the first time; he had used “nationalism” card to put Limpiyadhura, Kalapani & Lipulekh area— encroached land by India on Nepal’s official map resulting public applaud. But critics know this is a tactics to remain in power. When he came to power with full majority—he has everything: Two-third majority, massive opposition support and enormous public trust on him but he failed like those other governments made within 30 years span of Nepal’s democratic life since 1990. He seriously missed the opportunity. This resulted to the Nepal’s prosperity again in deadlock phase.
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