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Kashmir-A Million Pellets for a Million Stones

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The other day my friend while discussing Kashmir’s worsening situation literally rebuked me for writing yet another opinion on Kashmir’s current uprising and prevailing mass unrest, reacted brutally so far by security forces leaving about sixty nine civilians dead and thousands injured.

The point is whether mass cries and scores of articles, opinions or commentaries, etc, on Kashmir’s worst uprising so far have made any difference on the ground situation, as far as the tactful tackling or peace building or approaching the angry and protesting people is concerned? The answer is a clear no.

Why is it so, there are reasons. The reason is not that the nation does not politically understand Kashmir and its issues or what people refer to when they talk of UN Resolutions, Plebiscite or right to self determination or Azadi, etc,. The nation seems more worried about geo-politics and cannot afford to see its hostile neighbor coming closer. Also Kashmiri people understand that security forces or local police are trained personal and do what they are asked to do and do not do things on their own. Therefore whatever, killings or torture so far in the valley cannot be attributed only to forces and their mishandling but to the political masters who control them. The question is why so many killings don’t still matter and apart from night raids and intimidation against masses, what positive and reasonable efforts are being done on the ground to normalize the situation? Is there any, I doubt.

A Dangerous Tit for Tat

Now there is a strange dichotomy and a tit for tat situation when the uprising is in its second month. Strikes or shut down or in common parlance hartals during the day called by the resistance camp and stressed religiously by militants as a direct action of dissent are followed by masses. On the other hand forces now impose curfew during the night time when people were actually moving out after day long shutdowns. The two camps, i mean forces and separatists, have therefore shared the whole 24 hours of a Kashmiri in equal proportion leaving him completely breathless. People protest during the day, forces beat them in the night. Forces barging in peoples’ homes at night and smashing window panes is also on. A million stones for a million pellets. When it comes to Kashmir context, we have developed a strong culture of direct action in terms of hartals since decades now but till date without any significant results as everybody takes it as a normal affair of life now. Still people defy curfews for protests and follow hartals religiously. The reason is the system in place which is crippled and has no credibility among the masses. The power elite has even has lost guts to face the same people who voted them to power. They only offer sermons of peace without actually doing anything for it and play blame game to escape queries. Justifying violence in Kashmir is easy and labeling Pakistan for everything is much easier but understanding the woes of and approaching the masses especially now when the use of power has crossed all limits seems very difficult. This difficult situation is further made impossible by politicians who are either in opposition or anti-Mehbooba by their rhetoric. The only thing so far constructive they have done is approaching the President and the PM in the centre. Hartal calendars keep appearing and updating like examination date sheets and calls for bandhs and chalos’, etc, continue only to be curbed or foiled by the state. When hartal time is over, forces start their turn. Where will it all end, nobody knows. What is the way out; nobody knows even not the state at the moment.

Kashmiris’-Historically Resilient

Kashmir has been suffering since centuries and witnessed a plethora of unaccounted oppression and long drawn conflict with linkages to cruel history. This has slowly led to coping strategies among masses and they have developed enough resilience and honed survival instincts and ability to survive under all kinds of adverse situations. During the acute conflict situation in 1990’s there used to be hartals for months together, like Dargah Hazratbal siege (1993) and long drawn hartals, massive uprisings of 2008 and 2010 (the new ragdo culture) but life never stopped despite acute situations. Also for any act or activity that starts hampering the economic interest of the Kashmiris, they quickly discover a way to overcome, manoeuvre or bypass it. Also people in Kashmir now have turned self medicos and psychologists or counselors as well. They witness the worst but take it easy now because they know there is no way out but to live it. Same is the case with the mass protests or bandhs that Kashmir followed and preferred over violent conflict but not without a range of repercussions. This time the rage has crossed all limits and Burhan Wani incident on July 8, played just a trigger.

Media Trials only Alienate Further

While Kashmir’s 2016 uprising is on, many media persons were thrashed either by masses or by security forces. Why masses don’t believe what they call Indian media can be attributed to venom that prime time channels spew on Kashmir and its people. Over last few years, people of Kashmir have become well aware of the true intentions, biases, and political games of media and large chunks of youth oppose their (prime time channels) Kashmir policy, goals and aspirations. Even media channels who insult every Kashmiri panelist very well know what is ailing Kashmir and what people want but their TRP craze changes the whole discourse on Kashmir that only leads to provocation and alienation besides strengthening the dissent on the ground. Baring a few media groups, Kashmir and Kashmiris are maligned and presented differently to the nation and labeled even as terrorists. Such a venomous approach further alienates people as their point of view hardly comes to surface.

Youth and Dissent

Some of the very meaningful manifestations were seen during the floods in September 2014 where the same dissenting youth saved thousands of lives. Why the same youth are now on streets against the power reflects the oppressive designs of the state that have forced them to do so. Why isn’t the culture of dissent changing in the valley and why efforts have still not been made to approach youth, remains a question to ponder over? Does Kashmir need new ways to display anger or oppression, also needs a deeper thought as the fallout is so expensive given the prevailing bloodshed? For a pellet or a bullet cannot be an answer to a stone, State is yet to ban the lethal weapons and justify crisis mishandling by least equipped security personnel merely as a self defence or a small sorry after a murder.

What is the way-out to all this mess? The answer is peace but the very peace will be felt only by addressing human rights abuse so far and bringing the culprits to justice. How is Noman- the little son of murdered lecturer Shabir Mangoo-who was beaten to death by forces different from the Aleppo’s (Syria) five year old boy Omran-who was pulled out of the rubble of a bombed building in Syria recently which made the whole world cry? Is Kashmir becoming India’s Aleppo by such heinous crimes and why isn’t the nation crying for Noman? What is such an unaccounted violence going to teach the young children like Noman? Why is the State hell bent on turning Kashmiri youth into a lost generation. Such a catastrophe is actualizing gradually as resistance discourse and the masses’ resolve irrespective of caring about economy, value of life or scare of torture is going hand in hand. Who will address this dangerous trend? At least bullets and pellets or beating people to death in night raids or routine abuse will not address this.

Today’s well read, upward looking and a progressive Kashmiri is wise enough. He is articulate in his content as well. He raises questions in every TV show, conference or seminar on Kashmir, human rights, democracy, etc,. He has learnt a new dissent but needs satisfactory answers to his genuine queries which he never gets and in turn is labeled as seditious or anti-national. He demands a true answer on the question of recent killings and torture, he recalls Bijbehara massacre, Dardpora widows, half widows, Kunan-Poshpora mass rapes, Asiya-Neelofar double rape and murder, Pathribal massacre, Wandhama massacre, Chattisingpora tragedy, suffering of Kashmiri Pandits, disappearances & mass nameless graves, fake encounters like Machil tragedy, youth arrested and criminalized under PSA, prolonged detentions of leaders, muzzled voices, time and again gagged communication in the name of law and order, hijacked democracy and futile Bandhs, unaccounted killings under draconian AFSPA, etc,. Is the nation ready to address these grievances and prove that Kashmiris’ have all Azadi like the rest of Indians? He is made to feel like another Indian when he has been already made into a monster and even labeled a terrorist. The troll brigade online keep abusing them and media houses even YouTube keeps allowing such abusive comments.

Look For a Way-out Now

There is a dire need to address the current violent social unrest and it should not be taken or forgotten like past uprisings. Kashmir’s new social movements are now emanating from internet, use of new media, intellectual and political discourses. Still there are enough believers of peace diplomacy and functional interlocutions, fruitful and result oriented interactions and mediations provided the government in power initiates such a dialogue. Also people aspire for reconciliation and establishment of truth and accountability commissions which need to be respected. The only thing that remains to be actualized is the empathetic power apparatus that treats people their own and really care about blindly slapping PSA’s on youth and unaccounted use of bullets and pellets to suppress but feel the pain of civilian killings day in and day out and try practical measures to stop it. At the moment nothing but use of force is the only reality on the ground.

Last Word

The nation has failed to listen to and harness the potential of Kashmiri youth who have always been seen as a threat rather than an opportunity to make peace in the trouble torn region. They are active in politics and are brilliant in administration and entering in every sphere of life but they have grievances which cannot be answered every time by force and bullets and pellets.. They are fed up with shrewd politics and the policies of the great divide. They are becoming able scientists, researchers, writers, administrators, etc, who know their way and I am sure who can work for a different Kashmir which believes in peace and pluralism and is highly opposed to oppression, inequality and exclusion. This all can happen provided they are given a space and a platform to have their say. They are allowed to protest peacefully and are approached by authorities to address their grievances. They just demand justice and that must be delivered by thinking Kashmir as a political problem and treating Kashmir as the people of Kashmir not just its mountains and lands. Hatred only begets hatred and indifference only breeds chaos and alienation.

I am sure the nation has not lost vision on Kashmir but certainly before the PM spoke on the youth killings and the need for a dialogue beyond development discourse, nation seemed not caring about Kashmir. The Home Minister’s second visit to the valley for making peace is a welcome step and should bear fruits of peace in the valley.

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South Asia

Abrogation of Article 370 and Pakistan’s Pathetic Response

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Pakistan, which is a party to Kashmir dispute could not make significant move after the Indian decision to scrap Article 370. The fragile economy, conventional military asymmetry and limited influence in international community restrict the options for Pakistan to take any strong stance against Indian illegal decision.

A month ago the government of BJP illegally dissolved the special status of Jammu and Kashmir through demolishing the Article 370. The article provides immunity to Jammu and Kashmir from Indian laws except foreign affairs, finance and communications. The decision is profoundly rejected by masses of Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan. In the mean time the opposition parties in India also expressed strong dissatisfaction against decision and predicted severe repercussions for Indian state. The decision has also been challenged in the Indian Supreme Court and hearing has already been started. Yet, since the 5th August Kashmir is under siege, curfew has been imposed, communication network, medical and health facilities have been blocked. The international human rights organizations and defenders issued a genocide warning and warned India not to commit genocide.

In this critical situation which is developed by India, Pakistan took stance to stand by Kashmir. Pakistan highlighted the violent action which engulfed the rights and lives of Kashmiri people’s. Although Pakistan expressed strong resistance and proclaimed to use all the means to give Kashmiri’s their right, but there is a huge difference in words and deeds. On behest of Pakistan, China called UN Security Council meeting to discuss the issue and Chinese ambassador strongly condemned the Indian action and urged both parties to resolve the dispute through peaceful means. Yet it is important to point out that permanent members of UNSC refused to issue a post meeting joint   statement.

Here it is wise to highlight that the international politics is dominated by the self-interests of dominant powers and weak states have no say in the system. Pakistan could not compete with Indian power in international relations. After scrapping the article, India immediately sought foreign support and Prime Minister Narendra Modi went to different states. Modi visited France, Bahrain and UAE, while Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan only made phone calls to seek support against Indian action. This clearly disclosed the inefficiency of Pakistan to counter the Indian narrative.

Indian economic and investment potential is another factor behind cool response of international powers. India is trading partner of many countries and most prominent among them are USA, UK, UAE, China, European Union and Australia. The US has invested 9 million in India during the 2016 and UK has signed the commercial deals of 9.3 million recently. Australia is benefitted from Indian students and its education export is 2 billion dollars. EU a group of 27 independent states is another major investor and trade partner of India with 2.5 % international shares.

In contemporary international politics, diaspora is a backbone of any nation and same is true for India. It is observed that Indians are residing almost every influential state. More than 3.5 million Indians are working in UAE. During the 2015, Indian share was 16% in expats residing in the US, and Saudi Arabia host 1.9 million Indians. Kuwait having 1 million Indian workers and Oman 777,632 Indians. Europe also host the 1.2 million Indians.

The bilateral trade of India with US, China, EU, Japan, and Australia is impressive. In 2019, bilateral trade of India-China crossed the 100 billion, which expects to grow further. The US is second largest trading partner of India in goods, and the single largest export destination of Indian exporters. The bilateral trade has been grew at 7.59% annually from 68.4 billion in 2008 to 142.1 billion in 2018.

The 8.8 million Pakistanis are residing in western states, 4.7 million are living in EU and 1.2 in U.K. But Pakistan failed to activate its diaspora to promote national interests of the state. The Pakistani leadership never paid serious attention to engage diaspora, which resulted in poor representation of Pakistan in international community. On the other hand, Indian diaspora is much influential and have strong say in policies of US and EU. Their skills and education help them to climb the ladder of success and influence. So, it is high time for Pakistan to devise an effective strategy to lobby the national interests and engage diaspora. The diaspora is considered the defense line as they bridge the gap between their parent and host state. 

Pakistan’s economic structure is fragile with rising debt and prices of commodities. The country is dependent on international monitory institutions to repay its debt which crossed over 100 billion dollars. It is on 150thposition in poverty index among 189 countries according to UN Human Development Indicators. The value of rupee is decreased to lowest level and government is losing its credibility. Pakistan is spending its 20% budget on Army which is higher than education, health and social development allocation. The fragile economy, poor coordination in policy making and influence of military in foreign policy making has reduced the role of other state institutions. Although, current civilian government claims that civilian and military leadership is on same page, but the poor and ill-coordinated response exposed the fault lines. The top hierarchy of civilian and political leadership did not bother itself to convey Pakistani position on Kashmir, except making statements.

If Pakistan really want to influence the international community, then it needs to fix its poor economy, to improve its human and social system, engage diaspora, make effective and inclusive foreign and security policy. The economic, political and military power can guarantee the national interests of the country. So Pakistan work tirelessly on all the fronts to achieve the status of major power.

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Pakistan’s peace-loving gestures are considered its weakness, unfortunately

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Pakistan is a peace-loving nation and a responsible state. The leadership, civil and military. Both are visionary and rational very much. Pakistan was the hub of western tourists in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, due to its natural beauty, friendly and hospitable environment, and affordable living. Economic growth was one of the highest in this part of the world. But suffered a lot since the 1980s, due to the situation in Afghanistan. It was not our war, but unfortunately, we were pushed into this war. As a result, Pakistan offered 80,000 precious lives of Pakistani nationals, an economic loss of estimated up to 250 billion US dollars. In addition to it, extremism, terrorism, trafficking, smuggling, ethnicity, intolerance, gun, and drug culture, etc. were a gift. Due to the war-like situations during the last 4 decades, nations spared all resources, including human resources, financial resources etc on imposed war-front. As a result, industrial agriculture, infrastructure development, education, SW&T, R&D, Innovation, Commercialization, Health Sector, etc all walks of life suffered a lot and as result, today facing the worst economic crisis with over 100 billion foreign debt.

But, after having so many bitter lessons, the nation is even more mature and trained to survive under any circumstances. In fact, has emerged one of the most resilient nation. India staged the drama of “Pulwan” on 14 February this year, and without collecting evidence and investigation, just within hours, blamed Pakistan and threatened Pakistan. Pakistan offered to extend full cooperation in investigation and punish the responsible. But, India, according to pre-plan, attacked Pakistan on the 25th of February and dropped bombs in Balakot a city deep inside Pakistan. The leadership of Pakistan is very much sensible and rational and noticed that India is pushing Pakistan into full-scale war. The visionary leadership in Pakistan realized the consequences of war, especially when, both India and Pakistan, both are nuclear states, possessing enough piles of lethal weapons to destroy each other completely, and its impact on the region as well as global. Formulated a smart strategy to respond on the 27th of February, giving a message to India, that although Pakistan has capabilities and enjoys supremacy over India, it still sticks to “Love-For-Peace” and does not wish to opt for war, successfully averted to escalate to a full-fledged war. Even that, Pakistan released the captured pilot of Indian air force inside Pakistan territory, as a good-will gesture.

India revoked its own constitution on the 5th of August and imposed curfew in Kashmir. It is an act of war and violation of UN charter, Simla Agreement and all norms & practices of civilized world. Siege of Kashmir, complete black-out by suspending Internet, mobile phone services. Cutting all modes of communication, evacuating all foreigners and visitors from Kashmir. Keeping people under house arrest. Occupying forces are killing, arresting, detaining and raping on a mass scale and draconian laws imposed empowered the security forces to shot at a spot on suspicion only, with any judicial process. After 42 days of curfew, people are facing a severe shortage of food, fuel, electricity, medicines, and life is completely at a halt, stand-still status. It is the largest curfew in the known-history of human beings, as around 8 million people are under siege, and Kashmir has been turned into a big jail, people are treated as prisoners. India’s atrocities and brutalities have crossed all records of human rights violations.

UN, Human Rights Organizations, Mainstream Media, International organizations, NGOs, the whole International community have shown deep concerns on Indian atrocities. Protests, agitations, rallies, and demonstrations, all around the world as solidarity with the people of Kashmir have been witnessed. European Parliaments, UNSC, OIC, SCO, and all other international organizations are worried about the deteriorated situation of humanity in Kashmir.

Kashmir is a dispute between China, Pakistan, and India. India has illegally occupied a part of Kashmir known as Indian Occupied Kashmir. But people of Kashmir are spread all over three parts, i.e in Pakistan known as Azad or Free Kashmir and China. Kashmir is one nation and having blood relations in all three parts. They are charged at peak to enter into India Occupied Kashmir and help their brothers and sister in Indian Occupied Kashmir. They wanted to provide them food, medicines and basic necessities of life. The government of Pakistan is trying its best to stop them to march toward Indian Occupied Kashmir, as they are unarmed and simple villagers, they might have the high spirits to rescue the lives of their brothers and sisters in Indian Kashmir but might face firing by Indian Army. I am afraid, the public pressure is growing with passing each day and they might march toward Indian Occupied Kashmir, and Pakistani Security Forces may not be able to stop them, then they might come under the Indian forces firing range. It might complicate the situation. The government of Pakistan is committed to observing restrains and avert any war, with India, but if its civilians are killed, it may create an unexpected situation, difficult to predict the reaction.

On the other hand, Indian military deployment along the line of control and frequent violations of line of control, use of cluster bombs on civilian population inside Pakistan, and war-preparations are alarming. Indian Army Chief announced that The Indian Army is well prepared to Attack Pakistan and just waiting for a signal from its Government in Delhi.

Pakistan is trying its best to observe restrains and showing maximum tolerance and patience. But India considers Pakistan “Love-For-Peace” as its “weakness”, Unfortunate! Very Unfortunate!

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Webinar: Kashmir Outside the Crosshairs- Does Anyone Care about Kashmir?

MD Staff

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Join Modern Diplomacy and our Executive Vice Chairman, Prof. Matthew Crosston, for a Live Intelligence briefing / Webinar, on Sunday September 29 at 18:30 (IST) to learn:

* Why does the US continue to ignore Kashmir but give loads of attention to every country around it?

* Is it necessarily a positive if the US DOES start paying attention to it? 

* What would be GOOD attention and what be BAD? Which one is the US likely to give?

* Can Kashmir ever be left alone to develop independently and not be a pawn of regional neighbors?

These and other controversial but critically important questions will be covered in an exciting intelligence briefing that will still allow for a dynamic, open discussion exchange with one the world’s most recognized, accomplished and sought after Intelligence experts, Dr. Prof. Matthew Crosston, Executive Vice Chairman of Modern Diplomacy.

Reserve your seat here

Dr. Matthew Crosston is Director over all Intelligence programs and Professor of Strategic Intelligence and Global Security in the School of Security and Global Studies at the American Military University. He is an acclaimed author and international speaker who consults with governments, media organizations, and academic institutions on a range of issues covering peace mediation, human rights conflicts, resource dilemmas, intelligence, change leadership, and education innovation. His works overall have been translated into Russian, Arabic, Chinese, Indonesian, Hebrew, Spanish, Turkish, Farsi, Greek, and Uzbek. He has a BA from Colgate University, MA from the University of London, PhD from Brown University, and completed his Post-Doctoral Fellowship at the University of Toronto.

Modern Diplomacy and Center for International Strategic Analyses

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