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Using the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)

Giancarlo Elia Valori

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The OSCE Ministerial Council elected Italy to chair the Organization in 2018. The consensus decision was taken on July 27 last by the current 57 members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). And there is nothing to prevent that – by changing the Statute – also “observer” countries may add to them, as currently happens for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Hence it would be appropriate to use this one-year OSCE Italian Presidency in a good and new way. It is worth recalling that the Secretary General of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly – with a five-year term which started on January 1, 2016 – is the Italian Roberto Montella, a conflict resolution expert who worked for years with the Organization in the Balkans.

Hence we must not think of a remake of the usual “European semester” to be served with bombastic statements, expensive conferences and zero facts, just to show off and publicize the national government.

The issue lies in thinking big, at last.

This is what Italy shall start to do if it wants to survive in the new international scenario.

Hence it shall make use of the largest organization for security in which as many as 57 countries operate, although it is an organization which has not yet full international personality.

However these are results to be reached on the field – not with official documents – as is the case with honor, respect, prestige and charisma.

So far we have seen the Vienna-based organization operating in the field of management and monitoring of elections. Nevertheless there is an extremely important functional factor for OSCE regarding – as by Statute – the settlement of international legal disputes. It is in this field that we must play our cards well.

We must not forget, however, the Warsaw-based office dealing with election observation missions.

In a phase in which there will be important elections – ranging from those scheduled in Somalia for next August to those in the Russian Federation on September 18, in Jordan on August 20, in Morocco on September 18, in the Palestinian West Bank and in Montenegro next October – the OSCE traditional monitoring activity projects the Vienna-based Organization onto the top of the current system of international relations.

This provided that it shifts from the observation of elections to a strategic project, which is not a mere “democratization”, but the redesign of international balances and alliances.

We hope that, with the Italian Presidency, the issue will not only be to monitor the formal regularity of the voting procedures, but to set a new mode of international political and strategic relations in the new global strategic scenario. This scenario has changed all the dreams of decision-makers following the end of the Cold War.

Certainly monitoring elections and, above all, making full use of the international legal affairs management system currently means having a flexible, wide, powerful, influential and universally recognized instrument.

This is designed to start to resolve some of the current global tensions and, in particular, to redesign the map of the balance of power, influence and stability.

Currently using the OSCE means being able to draw a new map of international balances outside the network of the old and now dead alliances: the Atlantic Alliance is increasingly a network à la carte, with Turkey playing its independent game in the Middle East and the United States which use the countries of the old Warsaw Pact to encircle Russia – not to mention the now countless NGOs only dealing with migration, humanitarian aid, peacekeeping or health, which are a direct expression of governments (over 54) or strictly regional organizations (at least 32 in this sector).

They are too small to be strategic and too weak to impose a new system of international relations, as well as too sectoral to solve even the problems they would like to solve.

They are all regional organizations and hence not very active: many of them are linked to the major governments of the various regional alliances, while others are still too specific in their scope to carry out strategic and geopolitical tasks and functions.

Therefore OSCE has the size, tradition and role to begin – with the Italian Presidency – to solve a series of problems that neither NATO, an organization which is currently experiencing weaknesses predicted as early as the end of the Cold War, nor the United Nations, too big and inhibited by cross vetoes, nor the EU, now Germany-centered and always deprived of a geopolitical project, nor other similar organizations can start to solve in a new and effective way.

Let us analyze the breaking points of the balance between Europe and the world’s great geopolitical areas which border on Europe or have traditional relations with it.

And let us examine how the OSCE could help us to solve them.

Meanwhile, we must still consider the Balkans.

Excessively fragmented, pending the end of the Cold War, to avoid the Slavonization of the region in relation to Russia, as well as the Serb hegemony, and to finally create independent, but not autonomous statelets, which would be EU members or small potentates.

Therefore the region is still unstable, dangerous, economically problematic and unable to be a rampart against the pressures exerted by the radical or non radical political Islam.

The Wahhabism imported from Saudi Arabia is still spreading like wildfire among the vast Muslim populations in the Balkans. In Bosnia the two different populations have never relinquished the separation project – either consensual or not – and the Republic of Srpska, namely the Serbian part of Bosnia, is threatening a referendum on independence to be held in 2018.

Moreover Kosovo is undergoing a deep economic crisis, but the local Serbs have recently gained the right to territorial autonomy, which has led to harsh demonstrations by the Albanian population that, with some naivety, the United States had promoted to the rank of hegemonic population in the region.

Just think that Kosovo is the “masterpiece” of the two Balkan wars between 1991 (Slovenia) and 1995 (the Croatian war of independence), then of the Bosnian war which began in 1992 and apparently ended in 1995, as well as of the actual Kosovo war, which began in 1991 and ended in 1999, followed by the insurgency in the Presevo valley from 1999 to 2001 and finally by the uprising in Macedonia in 2001.

The dates and number of wars show that the current solution is worse than the tensions which gave rise to the splitting and fragmentation of the Balkans, which has always been the greatest danger for the peace and stability of Europe (and also of its allies).

Here a great project of the OSCE Italian Presidency could be to follow again a great idea of an excellent Italian Foreign Affairs Minister, namely Gianni De Michelis.

Having already foreseen the silly indefinite fragmentation and splitting of the Balkan ethnic groups and micro-nations, in 1991 the Venetian Minister launched the so-called Pentagonal Initiative, later renamed the Hexagonal Initiative with the addition of Poland, which served to stabilize Central Europe, to allow its integrated development and to support the idea of a “united and democratic” Serbia, as well as to finally manage the large infrastructure aid which the Pentagonal Initiative could not fund on its own, but only through the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

Furthermore, in Minister De Michelis’ mind, the problem was to remove the danger of triggering off more or less historically justified separatisms which would endanger Europe itself – as also happens today.

The issue is still pending and the OSCE could solve it – at least starting from the one-year Italian Presidency – by equipping itself with a series of financial and operational arms on the field, which are practicable considering its autonomy and legal specialization.

Moreover Macedonia is currently without a stable central government and the large Albanian minority is getting organized after some public demonstrations.

The OSCE solution could be a new alliance, a new wider “Pentagonal Initiative” supporting a network of alliances resulting from the crazy geopolitics of the Balkan splitting and fragmentation.

The issue still lies in linking economic aid and investment to a sound internal stability, to mutual military, strategic and commercial consultations between the countries in the region and finally to a new strategic stability pact between the EU and the whole system of micro-States resulting from the Balkan wars fought between the 1990s and 2002.

Here the issue does not lie in the usual and mere monitoring of the regularity of elections, as often happened in the OSCE brilliant history.

As the old saying goes, when the cat is away, the mice will play: once regular elections are over, the country destabilizes itself exactly as if they had not taken place.

The “daily referendum” – as the French historian Ernest Renan called the election process – only works if the political classes and the elites share relevant homogeneous traits.

Hence the real problem that the Italian Presidency shall solve is the “substantial legitimacy and lawfulness” of the micro-States’ actions, thus avoiding their coalescing towards the jihad exporting countries and the strategic porosity of the whole Balkan system which, as previously recalled, is the greatest threat to European stability.

This is the reason why a Pact among all 57 members of the Organization would be needed, ensuring the possibility of an interposition and stabilization intervention – also at military level – outside the NATO context and with the inevitable agreement of the other great country vitally interested in the Balkans, namely the Russian Federation.

Russia has been an OSCE Member State since June 1973.

Another point of tension that the organization could begin to solve is in the Greater Middle East. The Near East we knew in the past was an old design on the British map between London and the Indies: today it is the largest source of global instability and the point in which all the geopolitics threads converge, both eastwards and westwards.

Many of the smaller Islamic countries of the region are OSCE Member States: Turkmenistan (since 1992), Azerbaijan (since 1992), Uzbekistan (since 1992) and, more importantly, Turkey, which is an OSCE Member State since 1973.

At this juncture the issue lies in encompassing Israel, which is not a member of the Organization, along with some other countries in the region.

The Jewish State is even the key to the new OSCE which should start with the Italian Presidency: firstly, it would be the pivotal link between the Organization and the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, the new “Silk Road” between East and West proposed by the Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Nevertheless China, too, is not an OSCE Member State – hence the quick and anti-bureaucratic role played by the Organization’s “observer members”.

Moreover, Israel could provide to the OSCE its great economic and technological potential, which is essential for the new foreign policy which is in the offing.

And in so doing Israel could also reconnect its foreign policy with a wide network of alliances and mutual balances which it currently lacks in the new Middle East devastated by the jihad.

Nothing prevents, however, that the entry of new countries in the region allows to implement less war-directed rules and regulations than the current ones, in a context of relaxation of tensions in the region in which Israel could also avoid the two-way relationship both with the Russian Federation, which has other interests in the region, and with some Iran’s Islamist enemies, with which Israel’s relations are bound to be written on water.

Hence to make Israel get out of the current strategic cul de sac and impose, at least on a part of the Arab world, new negotiations, outside the Cold War myths – for example, we can here consider the hypothesis, never relinquished by Saudi Arabia, of an exchange between territories and pan-Arab (Sunni) recognition.

Old stuff, which could be overcome if the OSCE proposed itself not only as an organization capable of managing elections, but also as an organization active in conflict resolution within a new context, by involving old and new regional and global players in the negotiations.

I am referring to Russia, China, as well as many Central Asian republics, and even to the United States which, in this case, would see their leadership within NATO be less burdensome for them.

Another issue to be considered in the new OSCE set-up here proposed is Great Britain’s new economic and strategic integration after the Brexit.

Great Britain is now an autonomous country, but it cannot fully use its Commonwealth, in which many countries now have size and interests which are very different from the British ones. It is currently outside the EU political context, regardless of the date of its formal exit from the European Community.

Great Britain has been an OSCE Member State since June 1973 and the network we are planning for the new organization is such as to mostly replace the system of alliances that Great Britain had reached with the EU throughout its long membership.

Hence support on an equal footing and not monopolized by the European concert for the new British globalization.

We must be well aware that while the UK cannot do without the European strategic system, which is its natural bulwark for geopolitical security, not even the EU can do without Great Britain, a member of its military nuclear club and a country of great influence within the UN Security Council, as well as a globally strong and autonomous financial center.

The EU is blind without Great Britain, while the latter could become deaf without a network uniting the EU and the rest of the world, such as the OSCE.

Hence, with its integrated system of international relations and its legal expertise, which could be used both in trade negotiations and in more strictly strategic ones, the Organization could be a good way to recover Great Britain, which cannot leave the EU alone.

Therefore I am thinking, first and foremost, to a large OSCE Conference on the Greater Middle East, in which some basic points would be established: a) Israel’s universal recognition and the equivalent right to its autonomous self-defense; 2) an Israeli system of relations, through the OSCE, with all regional and global players without the dangerous burden of interactions with the United Nations and NATO; 3) the redesign – not imitating the Balkan follies – of the Arab areas in the region, with an OSCE interim protection for small countries and such a border protection as to finally prevent the Islamic globalization, namely the jihad.

Briefly a “Pentagonal Initiative” for the Middle East.

In the Balkan region which, as we all know, has always been the hotbed of European instability, we shall follow the heritage left by former Minister Gianni De Michelis: stabilization of the region; avoidance of the crazy virus of ethnic fragmentation and splitting; the network of intra-State aid which, in this new strategy, could be integrated with the Chinese aid of the Road and Belt initiative.

The great OSCE Conference should make Great Britain come back into play in the international system, precisely through the Organization, so as to recover it to a Grand Strategy without too many debts with the United States and suitable for what is still a major world power.

Once again, through the OSCE, Israel could establish its new network of international relations, thus quelling many Arab countries which, although not being members of the Organization, are too experienced to neglect it.

Hence the issue lies in shifting – by also making OSCE acquire autonomous international personality – from an Organization only monitoring elections to an Organization which, pending the structural crises of the others, plans and designs a new geopolitics in the most important points of tension: the Balkans, Northern and Eastern Europe and, above all, the Greater Middle East.

It is a major challenge to which the OSCE Italian Presidency should be able to rise up.

Advisory Board Co-chair Honoris Causa Professor Giancarlo Elia Valori is an eminent Italian economist and businessman. He holds prestigious academic distinctions and national orders. Mr Valori has lectured on international affairs and economics at the world’s leading universities such as Peking University, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Yeshiva University in New York. He currently chairs "La Centrale Finanziaria Generale Spa", he is also the honorary president of Huawei Italy, economic adviser to the Chinese giant HNA Group and member of the Ayan-Holding Board. In 1992 he was appointed Officier de la Légion d'Honneur de la République Francaise, with this motivation: "A man who can see across borders to understand the world” and in 2002 he received the title of "Honorable" of the Académie des Sciences de l'Institut de France

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Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and the challenges in West Asia

Sajad Abedi

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During the years after the Islamic Revolution of Iran, national security considerations have undergone various changes. Changes have been conducted in the light of the pursuit and continuation of some of the great features of the Islamic Republic’s holy system. The country’s security considerations are divided into three axis-driven discourse-driven, center-driven and growth-driven divisions. In each discourse, four basic variables, namely, “national security goals and principles”, “national power”, “national security threats and vulnerabilities”, and finally “national security policies” have been considered. How genesis and speed its growth was so sudden and shocking that most analysts and observers were shocked. How self-immolation by a simple street vendor in Tunisia has led to the emergence and growth of democratic democracies in the Middle East and the fall of the dominoes of North African countries, and how none of the world’s leading analysts and future scholars failed to make the slightest speculation about its emergence needs a debate Another is to review the methods of analysis and approach to dealing with political phenomena.

On the other hand, the emergence of radical Islamist groups emerged in the wake of the lockup and stalemate of the liberationist movement in Syria, and the rapid growth of a group such as ISIL, which, until two years ago, was one of the names of extremists al-Qaeda, The whole area of the game changed completely from western Iraq and eastern Syria, turning it from a guerrilla group to an overnight country. Of course there is no doubt that this cannot happen without the coordination of security systems in the countries of the region and the world.

Thus, the challenges of the region changed from one to two years from soft to hard. In analyzing the causes of emergence, leading challenges and, consequently, determining the orientation of defense strategies, two basic approaches can be considered. In the first approach, the weight of analysis is given on the scene of global power, and the regional forces are the majority of the vertebrae playing on the enemy’s ground. Questions like this:

  1. Are these superpowers of the world seeking to change the fabric of political powers in the Middle East?
  2. Does the Tramp government follow what its Republican self-government governments, father and wife Bush wanted to do?
  3. Are the Arab Gulf states, in the form of traditional and closed spaces, cannot be a good alliance for the West bloc and its head in the United States?

All of them will have a fairly positive answer. If we look at the cases with this hypothesis, conspiracy theory becomes more intense, and its predecessors come back decades ago, and even before the First World War, Returns The emergence of Islamic extremist groups, the September 9th, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the Iran-Iraq War, the Arab-Israeli wars, and even the rise of Israel, are all examples that can be analyzed in the context of conspiracy theory and can explain the Middle East’s current situation. Be In this approach, the tip of the Iranian intelligence movement will go to the world powers more than their puppets in the region.

However, without intending to abandon this approach, one can look at another window, and at least since 2000, on the other, as well as the fact that Western countries, and at their head, are the United States more than the beginning and the end These currents have a role to play, in their benefit, in the framework of their own interests, have become stronger. If we deal with this approach, we can take responsibility for part of the political game in the region and see the impact on the political trends and trends in the region more vivid. Accordingly, our defensive strategy will also be regional. If we even admit that these probabilities have been investigated in the think tanks and think tanks, then there should not have been any signs of public diplomacy.

Indeed, the rapid growth of a group of insurgents who does not consider itself to be bound by any international law, and which has been taking part in large parts of eastern Iraq and western Syria, over a period of several months, the total size of which is in the country’s size and size Britain, cannot be justified in the form of spontaneous and radical group movements. Accordingly, if we accept that countries in the region, such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, are somehow drawn from the curvature of the transfer of power, financial support and military equipment, should I accept that their policies as influential powers in the region Maintaining stability and balance of power has changed? Is Saudi seeking gendarme in the Persian Gulf region? Is Turkey looking to revive the Ottoman Empire in the region? Does the Qatari government seek huge financial resources to become an influential pole in the region? Does this mean that the discourse of the twentieth century, in which Israel was the most pivotal enemy, has been altered, and the reorganization and redefinition of the regional map of the region with the triangle of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey have been on the agenda of these countries? Where is the position of Iran? What role is Iran to play? Should security policy focus on preserving domestic security, or the importance of regional unilateral security shrinking into Iran? If the maintenance of impartiality is not fulfilled, how much should participation in the process affect the events, in what way, should our strategy be set up?

The point here is that if ISIL, which is free from any kind of adherence to any international treaty and treaty, is the executive arm of this policy of emerging powers in the region, and then the situation will be a little more complicated and complicated. ISIS has, as it has shown, exerted its greatest energy in its area of influence and influence, in other words, ISIS’s policies are largely outspoken and the least attention has been paid to the satisfaction and welfare of the citizens of their occupied territories, which could be potential for Iran is very dangerous. Because of it provides not only the incentive for this group to violate the borders of Iran, but also the possibility of its actualization at all.

As evidence suggests, ISIS is not committed to any international treaties and norms in the war, and basically believes its war with the Western domination system in the world. So, given the attractiveness of this group among Muslims in different levels of power in Central Asia, and in particular Pakistan, and even Syria, the ISIS’s scenario of unusual and massacre weapons, such as nuclear, chemical and microbial weapons, is unlikely to happen. That realization can completely change the playing field.

Whether ISIS met with its supporters and sponsors can also be decisive in determining Iran’s security strategy. Is this alliance between these countries and ISIS a temporary and short-term solution or a long-term strategy? In the first assumption, with the provision of relative stability in the territory of this group, the challenges and conflicts will flood the Arabian states of the Persian Gulf in the south and Turkey in the north. In the latter case, ISIS will play the role of a puppet or a puppet element of Iran’s regional rivals who can challenge the western borders of Iran by provoking religious motives.

What is important is that the possibility of occurring these challenges is all, simultaneously and in the near future. And this also greatly adds to the complexity of the issue. Accordingly, the security strategy of Iran is very smart, flexible and operational. In addition, Iran’s national security considerations have been subject to various developments, which can be summarized as follows from the transformation of the “extravagance to the introspection” of “ideological approach and pure commitment to more realism”, from the “Ummah-axis to Iran-centered” From “simplicity to complexity”, and from the “Threat to Threat – Opportunity in the International System”. In these developments, we are paying more attention to the need for a balance between the implications and limitations of national security considerations.

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Big Data and the new techniques of government political and strategic decision-making

Giancarlo Elia Valori

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Some considerations on Big Data.

As is now well-known, it is a technology which mainly  deals with collecting, processing and selecting a huge quantity of different data.

As in some Hegel’s works, here Quantity immediately becomes Quality. The mass of data and the link between them change – hence also its meaning and use change.

A technology or, rather, a series of technologies joined together, which processes many terabytes (2 at the power of 40 bytes, equivalent to 1,048,576 megabytes) at the same time. A huge amount and, above all, simultaneously. Another type of quantity that is immediately turned into quality.

After the creation of the International Telecommunication Union in Geneva in 2017, still led by the Chinese Houlin Zhao, we have some addition alfacts to evaluate the extraordinary relevance of the Big Data Science.

Meanwhile, just the everyday processing-collection of huge amounts of news allows -also by comparison only – the discovery of many new data and often even of industrial or state secrets.

Moreover, if data can be treated with different chains of meaning at the same time, it will be revealed in all its importance and, often, in roles different from those with which we are used to interpret it.

This is obviously essential to make the economic, financial, political, military or intelligence leaders’ analyses and decisions accurate and effective.

Approximately 90% of the data currently present in the world has been generated over the last two years. It seems impossible, but it is so.

Furthermore, every day 2.5 quintillion of new news  (every quintillion is 10 at the power of 13) add to the big data networks alone, but 80% of this mass is non-analyzed and cannot be studied with the usual comparative technologies, whatever the speed with which we employ them.

According to other models for analyzing the global news flows, in 2010 over 1,2 zettabytes – i.e. 10 at the power of 21 bytes, equivalent to a sextillion of bytes – were produced in one year only, while in 2020 a total of 35 zettabytes a year will be produced.

Hence the larger the quantity and the form of big data, the lower our ability to use it, if not with very advanced technologies. However, the larger the quantity of big data, the greater the need to choose the policies to be adopted on the basis of these quantities.

Hence, if the world produces all this data, it is inevitable to consider at least the reason for its huge dimension. Hence even the problems are as big as Big Data.

Just think of environmental and ecological issues or of energy and Internet networks.

It seems almost a paradox, but it is inevitable that nowadays the political, military and strategic decision-making is based on a quantity of news by far exceeding what –  in the best cases – happened in the twentieth century alone.

Governments, however, mainly need the intrinsic predictive ability these new technologies have.

Certainly big data is currently needed – for example – to predict-manage car traffic in large areas and to  organize health, as well as for protection from terrorist attacks or even for environmental protection and protection from natural disasters.

Nevertheless, the Big Data technology is particularly useful for evaluating the development trends of very complex phenomena – trends which become visible and statistically relevant and which are anyway generated only on the basis of huge amounts of data.

However, we are heading for decision-making quantification which is possible, both technologically and ethically, because the huge amount of data collected is anonymous, already structured and, above all, processed for strictly statistical purposes.

With specific reference to military and strategic defense and to intelligence, in particular – which are already the strength of big data technologies – the progress in news gathering stems from the creation of the new In-Q-Tel company “incubator” – at least for the main US intelligence service, namely CIA.

It is the non-profit company which analyzes and later invests in the most technologically advanced projects, or at least in those where there is some relevance for intelligence.

The initial idea for investing in Big Data – at least for the USA and its agencies – was to avoid the most serious mistakes of Human Intelligence (Humint).

As had already happened in Iraq or, previously, in the Lebanon. Still today, however, data is catalogued according to the old system which divides it into structured, semi-structured and non-structured data.

The first class is the one in which each storage element has at least four singular characteristics identifying it. The second class has only some designation features, which are never fully used.

The class of news that currently expands most is obviously that of non-structured data.

Nevertheless the sequence of news to be gathered is more complex: in addition to the typical intelligence collection, there is the operation of cleaning, noting and representing data in such a way that it is readily available for analysis. Furthermore data needs to be processed and specific algorithms to be created, while mechanisms of news similarity must be developed so as to extrapolate  the news  needed, which are probably not known to human users.

A technology known as data mining.

Algorithms also operate to create data collection models for computers, which can continuously teach computers how to refine their search.

This is what is known as machine learning.

Computers learn from a set of data, defined as “examples”, in an automatic process called learning – hence they automatically adjust their algorithms so as to attribute values and categories already known to examples not yet classified, without deleting or changing the incoming data.

In more practical terms, the thematic big data collections and the creation of examples can permit the wide use of the  automatic transcription of audio conversations, with a view to making them usable through key words. Then a sentiment analysis can be made through the reactions on social media. Hence mapping the reaction of the population to an event, a stance, a future law or a future trade war.

There is also – among others – the Geofeedia software, another example of sectoral use and machine learning in the Big Data sector, which is a platform enabling analysts to check the social media in geo-localized areas.

In the case of the analytical process, the large “trawlers” of Big Data are mainly needed to define the most probable strategic scenarios in the future or to create more specific and operative working assumptions in the intelligence field, or to analyze the opinion trends of the public and of the debate within the party and Parliamentary ruling classes.

All this is certainly not enough, because the intelligence that matters is like the black pearl or the black swan, or the particular correlation that – if tested within a range of options – creates the most rational choice or, possibly, even the most obvious one for the leadership of an opposing country.

Here the issue does not lie in collecting all the stamps of New Guinea, but to find the penny black that nobody had seen so far.

Nevertheless the analysis of the popular sentiment, or of the most obvious development trends of a social, financial or natural phenomenon, certainly guarantees that these options will be very probable and above all less “polluted” by adverse operations.

Or is this not the case? Indeed, the trolls’ actions  are mainly related to the hybrid war and to the great operations of what -at the time of Cold War – was called dezinformatsjia, literally “disinformation” in Russian.

However, while in a pre-IT phase before the world dimension of the World Wide Web, doing disinformation meant targeting a certain sector of the adversary to fill-saturate it with fake news, which would naturally lead to a wrong decision (to be manipulated as enemy’s mistake or  incapacity) or to a decision-making block, or to the decision that the Enemy wants you to take. Everything changes, however, with the trolls, which are a result of Big Data.

Trolls are anyway subjects who interact on the Web with the other participants without disclosing their identity.

Hence the trolls always operate with huge amounts of data that shield them from others’ sight. They enter the social media of vast user communities and finally react so as not to ever disclose their true nature. They often split and create other trolls.

Hence currently online dezinformatsjia operates with large data sets, such as Big Data, and affects the vast masses of Web users with a view to changing their perceptions, their political action – even on the Web -as well as blocking any reaction in the masses penetrated by an Enemy and, indeed, create a new self-image for them.

Much data, many features with which to hide the new identity of users-adversaries – and the more they are flooded with data, the more they will forget their old identity.

This is the action of a troll in the “hybrid war” and hence  in what we could today define as an automated “mass psychological war”.

Currently there is both a symmetrical and opposite relationship between the Big Data of two enemy countries – as in the series of frescoes known as The Allegory of Good and Bad Government, painted by Ambrogio Lorenzetti and hosted in Siena’s Palazzo Pubblico.

On the one hand, the Angels ensuring justice – the  typically Aristotelian, “commutative” or “distributive” justice – on the other, the Bad Government, the devilish tyrant who administers cruelty, betrayal and fraud, which are the opposite of the three theological-political virtues of the Good Government.

Hence, in more topical terms, Big Data is an extraordinary equalizer of strategic power – there is no longer small or large country, nor even non-State communities, compared to traditional States, which cannot wage a fight – even invisible to the most – with major powers.

Nevertheless, reverting to the current strategic and technological situation, Big Data will have many unexpected effects, at military and geopolitical levels, that we can summarize as follows: a) all “high” and “low” communication will become mobile and geo-localized social media.

Hence, in the future, intelligence will increasingly deal with the selective dissemination of its data, as well as with their careful spatial-personal determination and with their specification according to areas and receptors.

We will have an increasingly tailor-made intelligence. Furthermore, b) the Big Data challenge is somehow the opposite compared to the old Cold War-style technology.

While, in the past, the data collected ranged from Much to Little, looking for the confidential or secret information that changed the whole geopolitical perspective, nowadays it ranges from Much to Much, because the collection of declassified data – if well-processed – generates confidential news and information that are often unknown even to those who generated them.

Currently the secret is a whole technology, not just a mere datum or fact.

It is a technology changing according to the data it processes, precisely at the moment when it processes it.

Furthermore, c) the future “Big Data” solutions will be modeled and increasingly user-friendly.

They will often be intuitive and hence available also to medium-low level operators in the field.

The old division between “analysis” and “operations” will no longer exist. The true or fake news will be so manifold as to become – as such – war actions.

No longer messages to the ruling classes, but mass signals to the masses or selective operations for individual groups.

Moreover, d) the all-pervasive nature of the Web will be such as to create both new information opportunities and unavoidable “holes” that the Enemy will exploit easily.

Nor should we forget the use of other new technologies, such as laser optical space communications, which will make military and “service” communications safer – although further challenges, such as the new encrypted and adaptable “Internet of things”, will already be on the horizon.

In essence, in the intelligence field, Big Data will match  the human operators’ analytical potential, thus making them often capable of operating in restricted and selected areas with a speed equal to that of the perceived threat.

A sort of “artisanalisation” of the intelligence Services’ analysis, which will incorporate more data from the action field and will be ever less controllable ex-ante by some central political authorities.

Again thanks to the huge amounts of incoming data (or data targeted to the Enemy), there will be vertical integration between strategic analysis and top political decision-making, while both analytical and operational choices will be entrusted to local units, which will see an ever-increasing integration between operators and analysts.

We must not even forget, however, the real military technologies: the analysis of social networks, which can be automated, at least at the beginning, and manipulate both the popular sentiment and the adversary technologies.

Furthermore the automatic update of the weapon systems networks, increasingly integrated via the “Internet of Things”, as well as intelligence and the analysis of trends for tactical operations. Finally the activity based intelligence, i.e. a methodology – again supported by IT networks – which allows the analysis of even microscopically anomalous behaviors of the enemy’s small patterns of life.

There will be new types of analysis and hence new collections of large (and new) data.

Hence not only Big Data, but new storage for new classes of data.

Moreover, we should not forget a real cultural revolution that all what is very advanced technology will make  absolutely necessary.

Hence, while in the past the intelligence area was well defined and regarded a (not always easy) correct perception of the national interest or the position of one’s own stable international alliances, currently – thanks to Big Data -all this becomes not obsolete, but anyway very different from the logic of Nation-States.

Nowadays, for example, the analysis of intelligence Services – at least of the most advanced ones – will be increasingly oriented to the creation-verification of the different fault lines of the opposed public opinions, or to a new sector we could define as “political intelligence”, which is no longer just the manipulation of the enemy ruling classes, but not even the current mass dezinformatsjia spread through Big Data.

In the future, I already see the creation of diversified managerial classes from outside, with the distribution of technologies which is allowed or forbidden depending on the geopolitical choices of one or more adversaries. Hence we shall imagine a new intelligence which, unlike what currently happens, plays a role in the determination of the international “value chains” and in the global distribution of work, but above all of the technologies that enhance it.

Everything will take place ex ante and ever less ex post. Nevertheless this implies a transformation of the ruling  classes and hence a profound change in their selection.

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Intelligence

Intrusive and Mirrors

Sajad Abedi

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Changes are constantly falling over our heads, and organizations are faced with massive and accelerated changes every day. They must respond quickly to a turbulent world and engage with foreign forces. In order to be able to do this, they must have effective and efficient management capabilities in order to make the appropriate changes to adapt to the environment or change the environment in their favor. Organizational evidences show that a high percentage of failures are the result of inappropriate management. Organizations are proud to be honored to be well-directed.

Strong source information is a major organization, often referred to as the vital blood of the organization. Making a decision in today’s turbulent environments brings a lot of confusion without continuous access to relevant information. The provision of such information depends on the design and deployment of information systems and, in general, on their management. However, as far as a well-designed system is concerned, managing these information systems is an issue that administrators need to take in order to be able to plan and adopt appropriate strategies for information systems to increase efficiency, effectiveness, and Competitive advantage achievement.

Why is Sydney Brest in the television show “Nick name” the worst spy in history? She is always arrested. Why is he arrested? Because of she is entering a good coping action. She fled to the guards. Video cameras record their image. She turns on motion detectors, whenever she tries to penetrate computer networks; the intruder detection and tracking systems get his image. She is wary and reckless in everything she does.

You do not want to be in Sydney. You want to be bad guys who always seem to arrest them. This part of this TV show is near the truth. Well, even super spyware can stop it. Security and protection concerns are now very numerous in our lives. The events of July and June 1999 and the 2009 sedition largely affected the security-information concerns. Although these are important things that the government needs to address, there are also more important issues faced by individuals and organizations. Every day we face threats that can lead to financial or physical harm. Although these are not related to terrorism, they have a direct impact on our lives. When security devices turn out, we have to be ubiquitous in our everyday lives. But we always expect the government to take measures for the safety of the nation. In our personal and business lives, we need to see protection all over the place. Most of what you need is available at almost no cost. You just have to recognize and use it.

The concept of key is to accept responsibility for yourself and your organization. I’ve heard that a lot of people and companies are trying to blame for something like a computer hack by saying that the hacker should be a computer genius. When you look at those kinds of casings, you quickly find that the victims have not even done the slightest precaution. To protect yourself, you must know your strengths and weaknesses. I personally do not like to hear excuse and excuse. Yes, there may be thousands of reasons for problems, but they do not care. I really do not want to hear the excuse of the government that why is breaking a light bulb has caused the electricity to be cut off and thousands of people fall in the dark, or why we cannot properly monitor the ship or aircraft, or why Exaggeration is in most of the stuffed things. I would like to see a government confirming that there is a problem, and therefore proper countermeasures must be applied.

The trick is to keep the protection in the distant place. Use in-depth defense that overlooks small problems and is based on the conscious acceptance of potential damage. In this way, you and your organization can keep the information reasonably well at reasonable cost. There is nothing small, and we only need a common sense based on common awareness.

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