1)France effectively cooperated with the Bashar el Assad’ Syria and the Russian Aerospace Forces in the war against Daesh/Isis. President Hollande sent the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle. This happened while France was also operating in the US-led operation Inherent Resolve.
2) Following this French strategic position, the US pressure was so strong that President Hollande slowly and silently (but the pro-Russian statement had been public) abandoned the alliance with the Russian forces stationed in Syria.
3)Despite the flaws and shortcomings recorded in recent times, from the Bataclan attack to the Nice tragedy, the French intelligence services do mistakes especially because they are subjected to opposing political tensions: an all-out fight against the jihad urged by the public and a softer approach followed by the government aiming at “inclusion” and at a reduction of propaganda relating to the jihad danger. This second course of action is the one favoured by the United States, which have discovered the EU destabilization potential inherent in the jihad.
4)There is another factor to be taken into account, namely the Gaullist-style French opposition to the TTIP. Hence there is the real danger that, ranging from Saudi Arabia, which is a US ally, to Jordan and Turkey before the very recent coup-countercoup, there are Arab countries funding the jihad in France, also with a view to geopolitically “softening” the French government.
5)With specific reference to Turkey, there are reasonable grounds to believe that the network of Fathiullah Gulen – who is accused by President Erdogan of being the instigator of the very recent coup – is behind most of the network funding Hillary Clinton. Gokhan Ozkok was the vice-President of PAC, the organization raising funds for Clinton’s candidates. Some US sources maintain that Ozkok and others belonging to Gulen’s movement, enrolled the Podesta Group to lobby the Congress.
6)The Kemalists still operating in Turkey and abroad, strengthened by the recent evaluation of the National Security Council, think that Gulen is a fake liberal Islamist who wants to turn Turkey into a Sunni theocracy. On the other hand, since its creation in 2001, the AKP has always had problems with its Saudi, radical Islamist and totalitarian wing – and this happened when Erdogan and Gulen got on well together and founded the Party which is currently in power in Turkey.
7) France is also a jihad target because it is the second concussive force after the United States in the operation Inherent Resolve in Syria against ISIS. In sub-Saharan Africa, France has 3,000 troops serving in the Operation Barkhane, which is designed to fight against Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and the other jihadist groups. Furthermore France hosts the largest Islamic community in Europe, as well as the largest Islamic community of second-generation French citizens. As many as 600 French citizens have reached the ISIS territories and the same holds true for the French-speaking Tunisians and Moroccans.
8) It is also worth recalling that the French government has only one obsession, namely the next presidential election scheduled for 2017. With the rating of current President François Hollande plummeting in the polls and the danger of a Front National victory, the jihad operating in France can have two unintentional cover factors: the inner race within the State administration for political repositioning and the future likely victory of Marine Le Pen in the next election. In this no man’s land a “window of opportunity” for the jihad emerges. It is also worth noting that the French intelligence services have recently been “purged” of the old and experienced analysts and operatives so as to make way for large groups of intellectuels, who have no intelligence experience but, on the other hand, have the same integrationist ideology, which leads directly to “submission” – just to use the title of the successful novel by Michel Houellebecq. It is the first time that leftist analysts guide and direct the French global strategy.
9) Al Qaeda’s magazine Inspire has thoroughly analyzed the heinous attack perpetrated in Nice. This analysis is important to understand the jihad current logic. The issue lies in “instilling fear throughout France” and, by extension, across Europe. Fear blocks any reaction and places the hit country into a state of inferiority – and this is precisely the role played by the “lone wolves” (Inghimaasi in Arabic) in the jihad, that “must be creative in inventing means to intimidate the West without using the traditional jihad means”, which can be traced by the police forces and the intelligence services. As stated by the magazine, these traditional means will be used at a later stage, once the lone wolves’ jihad has sufficiently intimidated the European countries and radicalized the local Islamic communities.
10)Bouhlel, the terrorist driving the truck in the Nice attack (referred to in the magazine as Al Huwaji) did what he had to do: he fully exploited the surprise attack effect and chose a target maximizing the number of French victims. He used an improper weapon, namely a truck, which was irrelevant to the Nice police and security forces. The global strategy of the jihadist terrorism has three objectives, currently in France but also in the European Union in the future: to hegemonize not the more or less “democratic” Imams chosen by the moderate Arab countries, but the immigrant or second- generation masses. The jihad will use these communities as bases for an Islamic State in France or in some other European countries and will later fight against the rest of the people manu militari – as now happens in Syria and Iraq – but not with the jihad, which is a strategy for preparing and opening hostilities, but with a conventional war, albeit ferocious. The issue that the global jihad is studying aims at knowing when the Muslim masses will be so large and radicalized to start the second phase, the one following the “lone wolves” phase.
11)The European framework is optimal for Islam. Countries which understand nothing about this phenomenon – except for some sort of propaganda – are obsessed with pacifism and the integration myth, a panacea for all ills, and are then subjected to the evident pressure of investors similar to Croesus (who, in fact, came from the Middle East) that also fund the jihad.
12)Qatar invested 100 million euro for the rehabilitation of the banlieues and it is easy to imagine what kind of political indoctrination will follow this “gift.” Obviously, with their stupid naivety, politicians hope this will favour the integration and rehabilitation of these peripheral areas, to which the French government only pays lip service. Qatar also bought shareholdings in companies such as Louis Vuitton Moet Hennessy (LVMH), Total and the media group Lagardère. Through the investment in LVMH, Qatar has a direct stake and interest in the European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company (EADS), which manufactures the Airbus.
13) Furthermore Qatar wants to get its hands on the 7.5% EADS shareholding owned by the German car manufacturer Daimler. Outside of France, Qatar has a small stake in the Royal Dutch Shell, in the London department store Harrod’s and in the other British “global chain store” Sainsbury. Since 2010 Qatar has owned Miramax, the US film production company. Hence, on the one hand, there is the Islamic financial command and control over Europe and much of the United States and, on the other, there is the preparation of the next mass guerrilla warfare.
Indian Chronicle: Exposing the Indian Hybrid warfare against Pakistan
In recent years Indian hybrid warfare against Pakistan has intensified manifold to malign Pakistan Internationally through disinformation and propaganda tactics. Hybrid warfare has mainly been described as achieving war-like objectives with the help of fake news, disinformation, and propaganda. The Objectives of Hybrid warfare are mostly to secure long term victory against the opponent. Similarly, India has launched massive hybrid warfare against Pakistan, which was uncovered by EU DisinfoLab in its report called “Indian Chronicle”.
EU DisinfoLab is an independent organization working to expose and tackle disinformation campaigns targeting the European Union and its member states. The organization has claimed that the disinformation campaign against Pakistan has been active since 2005, “a massive online and offline 15-year ongoing influence operation supporting Indian interests and discrediting Pakistan internationally”.
In a recent investigation EU DisinfoLab has exposed a malicious Indian campaign against Pakistan. In the report, “Indian Chronicle” EU DisinfoLab has exposed the dubious use of media outlets, NGOs, and fake personnel by India to malign Pakistan. The disinformation campaign mainly targeted the United Nations and the European Union through more than 750 fake media outlets and 10 fake NGOs. According to the report, “uncovered an entire network of coordinated UN-accredited NGOs promoting Indian interests and criticizing Pakistan repeatedly. We could tie at least 10 of them directly to the Srivastava family, with several other dubious NGOs pushing the same messages.”
According to the report the disinformation campaign is supported by the Srivastava group. The Srivastava group has helped in “resurrected dead NGOs” to spread fake news. The report says that “Our investigation led to the finding of 10 UN-accredited NGOs directly controlled by the Srivastava Group, which our full report introduces at length. Their common trait? The fact that they all rose from the ashes of real NGOs. Indian Chronicles effectively benefited from the track record of these organizations while pursuing their agenda: discrediting Pakistan and promoting Indian interests at UN conferences and hearings,”.
Moreover, Asian News International (ANI), a major news agency in India has provided a platform for suck fake news campaigns. The aim of the Srivastava group and ANI media outlet is “to reinforce pro-Indian and anti-Pakistan (and anti-Chinese) feelings” in India, and “internationally, to consolidate the power and improve the perception of India, to damage the reputation of other countries and ultimately benefit from more support from international institutions such as the EU and the UN”.
The report claim that the organizations funded by the Srivastava group-sponsored trips for European Parliament members to Kashmir. “The organizations created by the Srivastava Group in Brussels organized trips for Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) to Kashmir, Bangladesh, and the Maldives. Some of these trips led to much institutional controversy, as the delegations of MEPs were often presented as official EU delegations when they were in fact not traveling on behalf of the Parliament,”. Such sponsored trips aimed to build a positive image of India, while spreading disinformation about the alleged claims of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in Kashmir.
Moreover, India has been actively involved in portraying Pakistan as a terrorist-sponsored state through its disinformation and fake news technique. For instance, India is lobbying strongly at FATF to put Pakistan on the blacklist.
India has also supported and sponsored Baloch separatist leaders and spread disinformation through their fake media outlets as mentioned in the EU DisinfoLab report.“These UN-accredited NGOs work in coordination with non-accredited think-tanks and minority-rights NGOs in Brussels and Geneva. Several of them – like the European Organization for Pakistani Minorities (EOPM), Baluchistan House, and the South Asia Democratic Forum (SADF) – were directly but opaquely created by the Srivastava group,”one of the examples is Kulbhushan Jadhav, an Indian spy who was captured in Pakistan.
The Indian Chronicle report has exposed the dubious face of India and the administrative structure of the United Nations and the European Union. Indian involvement in the spread of disinformation and resurrection of dead people and NGOs has exposed its long-standing for Human rights and democracy. Meanwhile, the reports have also exposed the administrative structure of the UN and EU, as they failed to notice the activities of fake UN-accredited NGOs and spread of disinformation through their affiliated NGOs.
Hybrid Warfare: Threats to Pakistani Security
‘Victory smiles upon those who anticipate the changes in the character of war’-Giulio Douhet
Hybrid threats are becoming a norm in Pakistan and if we want to move forward in this age of technological advancements, cybercrimes, and the use of social media, we must have a wholesome response mechanism.
Hybrid warfare is a military strategy that employs not only conventional forms of warfare but irregular with it as well. It involves propaganda, cyber-attacks, state-sponsored terrorism, electoral intervention, and many more means of multi-dimensional approaches towards war which are used by militarized non-state actors. The term ‘Hybrid’ came into use around 2005-2006 due to the Israel-Hezbollah war (“Lessons from Lebanon: Hezbollah and Hybrid Wars – Foreign Policy Research Institute” 2016) and became a hot-topic in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea. Using non-confrontational means can lead to internal struggles and crumbling of the target. What direct force won’t get you can be easily achieved by infiltration and multi-faceted resources. It’s neither character of war nor its outcome that defines it as a hybrid war, but the changing tactics (“State and Non-State Hybrid Warfare” 2018). In a world where everyone, from wealthy states to those caught in throes of hunger, is armed to the teeth, there are ways to achieve socio-political objectives through the use of violent and non-violent non-state actors.
Pakistan – A Target
Pakistan has risen to incredible heights despite it being a relatively young nation and this is only proved further by the interest international players have in its internal workings. Several factors contribute to the important stature Pakistan holds in the international community such as the Pak-China alliance, its geostrategic location, military aptitude, Russian interests in the Indian Ocean, Deep Sea Gwadar Port (One Belt One Road Project), neighbor to Afghanistan (a country existing as a battleground for proxies), etc. All these reasons make sure to keep Pakistan on the radar.
Though it may be secure militarily, Pakistan is still vulnerable to hybrid threats due to internal dynamics, numerous conflicting interests of nations in state-affairs, and increasing non-state actors. South Asian nuclearization has all but guaranteed that a full-fledged war between Pakistan and India is unlikely therefore the latter uses hybrid warfare to weaken Pakistan from within.
Evolutionary Nature of War
There was truth to Heraclites’s words when he claimed that change is the only constant in our world. The social theory of evolutionary change tells us that individuals, communities, societies, and states are always in a state of motion, continuously evolving according to the era. War is born from man, it is only fair that if a man changes, so shall war. It has become more complex; the stakes have raised from territorial boundaries to the maintenance of world order and preservation of state sovereignty. Wars are no longer fought on the borders, skirmishes aside, the real destruction takes place within. Due to the paradigm shift after the Cold War (Ball 2018), there rose a need for legal, economical, socio-political, and informational means of warfare. It is used as a way to undermine other nation-states in pursuit of national power; the international system is not only a race but also a way to tear others down.
Threats to Pakistani Security
To secure Pakistan from all sides, we must first analyze the threats it faces from all sides. Conventional Warfare used to be seen as one dimensional and it only perceived assault to be done through the land, air, or sea channels. However, now it is fought in various intangible zones.
India is a budding regional hegemon due to its political and economic growth including hidden agendas. Pakistan is perceived to be a direct threat to India especially after the launch of the CPEC project, perceived to be undermining its hold over the region, which is why it is employing stratagems of hybrid warfare to internally weaken Pakistan. Till now India has used State-Sponsored terrorism, funded insurgencies, operated terror cells, and even sent fighter jets into Pakistani Airspace as an attempt to ruin its reputation in the international community.
There has been growing instability in Afghanistan which has led to mass migrations across the porous border into Pakistan, with around 1.4 million registered Afghans (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees 2018) and 1 million unregistered (“Amnesty International” 2019). India has its claws in Afghan matters as well and will use it to exploit Pakistan’s weaknesses even after US forces leave the arena. Afghan Government’s poor administrative capability especially after the return of DAESH (Tribune 2020) and Tehrik-e-Taliban Afghanistan are threats to Pakistan as well as regional peace and are a major cause of lawlessness in the country and has a spillover effect for its neighbors.
Ideologically speaking, Iran is a sectarian threat to Pakistan and its Port Chahbahar stands to lose active traffic once CPEC is fully functional which means it stands as an instigator of hybrid warfare and it would be a risk to overlook it based on past good relations.
Even after the Cold War, strategic rivalry and animosity between the powers including Russia, America, and China still exist. The emergence of China as an economic superpower is perceived as a threat to the US due to which there is a major shift in its defensive posture towards the region.
The US has shown significant interest in Pakistan due to its geo-strategic location but not all interest has yielded positive results. They carried out a surgical strike for the capture and assassination of Osama-Bin-Laden. Such a breach of sovereignty and security is a hybrid threat.
There are several lobbies in Pakistan all vying for their own cause. The Iranian lobby has sectarian undercurrents. Sectarianism has always been one of the leading factors of the divide in the Muslim civilization and is the rising trend of terrorism.Such conflict itself is volatile and is deepening the rift between different sects(Shia-Sunni) of Pakistan, causing unrest.
Rising prices of commodities such as flour and sugar can lead to social unrest and discord. Such industries and their stocks are under the thumb of a select few, the elites. With the right bribes and conditions, even they would agree to sell out society.
Non-state actors are groups or organizations that have influence in the state but work independently and have their socio-political agendas (“Towards a Typology of Non-State Actors in ‘Hybrid Warfare’: Proxy, Auxiliary, Surrogate and Affiliated Forces” 2019). They work on political opportunities and mobilized grievances. Groups like BLA (Balochistan Liberation Army), TTP (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan), and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) are some of the major actors. Pakistan needs to focus on curbing Jihadist Terrorism as it is keeping it from leaving the grey list of FATF.
It refers to the spread of miscommunication. Propaganda and circulation of false news through social media are a relatively common way to cause turmoil in a community. Once a rumor is circling, there is no way to erase it. India claims that Pakistan is spreading the false narrative of ‘Islam being in danger’ to justify its actions, although untrue, is something that the Indians fully believe now. That Pakistani Intelligentsia is made solely to create narratives under which to attack India. Such beliefs further antagonize the states against each other.
Indian Chronicles are a prime example of information warfare being waged against Pakistan.
Channels such as Cyber-Jihad and Dark Web come under the purview of cyber warfare and are a threat to the fabric of society and its security in Pakistan.
Given the above discussed bleak prevailing internal security situation, Pakistan needs to formulate a short to mid and long-term response that curbs all external and internal parties alongside proxies from infiltrating and influencing the working of the state and affecting the masses.
For a full-spectrum approach, all domains should be covered such as diplomacy, defense, internal and external security, economic, informational, cyber, and media security.
There are steps to be followed through for active and effective quelling of hybrid threats. First, a strategy must be put for, then tactical action should be taken and lastly, the implementation process should be supervised and fully followed through.
The main focus of the state should be on deterrence towards, protection from, and prevention of hybrid threats to the state.
One must not forget that Hybrid war is a mix of both unconventional and conventional warfare, therefore a nation-wide response should include the intertwined operational capabilities of armed forces alongside political actors. Pakistan sees its security being threatened both by internal factors and external hostile/proxy elements. This is hampering state development. State-building and nation-building must go hand in hand if counter and deter such threats effectively.
The Impact of Management in Information Security
Authors: Sajad Abedi and Mahdi Mohammadi
Due to the increasing role of information security in the management of any society, public and private organizations and institutions are inevitably required to provide the necessary infrastructure to achieve this. In addition to material resources, management techniques also have a great impact on the optimal and successful implementation of information security management systems. The recording of management standards in the field of ICT information security can be designed in a planned way to change the security situation of organizations according to the needs of the organization and ensure security in terms of business continuity and to some extent at other levels (crisis management and soft war). Despite extensive research in this area, unfortunately for various reasons, including the level of security of the issue for governmental and non-governmental institutions or the direct relationship of the field with their interests, clear and useful information on how to implement and prioritize the implementation of a system over the years. The past has not happened until today.
The protection of the organization’s information resources is essential to ensure the successful continuation of business activities. The fact that information and information assets play a key role in the success of organizations has necessitated a new approach to protecting them. Until now, risk analysis and management has been used to identify the information security needs of the organization. After analyzing the risks, security controls were identified and implemented to bring the risks to an acceptable level. But it seems that risk analysis is not enough to identify the information security needs of the organization. Evidence of this claim is that risk analysis does not take into account legal requirements, regulations and other factors that are not considered as risk, but are mandatory for the organization.
Identifying, assessing and managing information security risks is one of the key steps in reducing cyber threats to organizations and also preventing the unfortunate consequences of security incidents that make organizations more prepared to face cyber risks. The risk assessment process, which is the first phase of a set of risk management activities, provides significant assistance to organizations in making the right decision to select security solutions. Risk assessment is actually done to answer the following questions: * If a particular hazard occurs in the organization, how much damage will it cause? * What is the probability of any risk occurring? * Controlling how much each risk costs. Is it affordable or not? The results of risk assessment can help in the correct orientation in choosing solutions (which is to eliminate the main threats) and can also be used in formulating and modifying the security policies of the organization. Risk management is a comprehensive process used to determine, identify, control, and minimize the effects and consequences of potential events. This process allows managers to strike the right balance between operating costs and financial costs, and to achieve relevant benefits by protecting business processes that support the organization’s goals. The risk management process can greatly reduce the number and severity of security incidents that occur in the organization. Risk management has 5 steps, which are: 1. Planning: At this stage, how to manage potential risks in the organization is determined and completed by developing a risk management plan. This plan defines the risk management team, defines the roles and responsibilities of individuals and the criteria for assessing identified risks. Documented. 2. Identification: At this stage, team members gather around each other, identify potential hazards, and record them in the organization’s risk list. Arranging group brainstorming sessions is a good way to identify hazards 3. Assessment: In this step, the assessment of identified risks is performed using the criteria defined in the risk management plan. Risks are assessed based on their probability of occurrence and possible consequences.
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