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The Death of the Poster Boy

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Burhan Wani-the face of young, revived and local militancy in Kashmir valley was killed last week by forces which resulted in an unforeseen law and order problem for the state apparatus and violent social unrest throughout Kashmir valley resulting in some thirty seven civilian killings and hundreds of injured-the toll still mounting.

The boy of just 22 years of age was called the face of new and young militancy in Kashmir valley and became quite famous due to his use of social media. This young chap even had taken over Dr Shah Faisal –the IAS topper of 2010 in fan fallowing who was then the inspiration of many Kashmiri youth. But Burhan Muzaffar Wani was much more popular especially in the southern belt of Kashmir purely due to his use of technology and wider popular support.

Security apparatus used to call this tech-savvy militant, the poster boy of young militancy in Kashmir as he was considered as an attraction to lure young locals to militancy in the valley. It was also believed that Burhan recruits youngsters and is the inspiration of many youths in Kashmir, thereby posing a serious threat to the security apparatus. The threat of increase in local militancy still continues even after his death; as believed by some Kashmir analysts and local politicians.

While i had gone to valley for a study on the annual holy Amarnath pilgrimage, i got stranded there due to the death of this poster boy. Being a local i stayed at my home and interacted with friends and acquaintances around on the situation that prevailed aftermath his killing.

“If twenty more civilian s die, Kashmir issue will reach some solution”, says an elderly man. Such thinking reflects that there is a section of society in Kashmir who thinks only violence can solve their issues and more the killings of civilians, more will be the impact. People perceive so because they have been witnessing only violence since the onset of the armed conflict since 1989.

“I am thirty three years old who has witnessed 2008 unrest and then 2010 unrest and all the other such big and small incidents since 1990s, but this time the situation is different and more dangerous. The valley is burning”, says a friend. Why is it different because of the rampant killing spree by forces and oft repeated crisis mishandling and failure of crowed control management?

Undoubtedly Burhan’s killing fallout is the huge unrest in itself after 2008 and 2010. How it led to such a violent turn, even the establishment couldn’t guess in time? Is it again a case of crisis mishandling or is it the lack of following SOPs by security apparatus. Why this incident resulted in so many civilians’ deaths, even the time will not tell because previous unrests are yet to be probed properly and nothing has come out so far and masses maintain that hardly anybody has been persecuted for civilian killings till date. Was killing Burhan a mistake or not a pre-diagnosed/mature and well thought out strategy that proved much expensive? Could he have been captured alive to avoid the crisis or was it really so impossible? Why so mass anger and why so much of growing popular support to militancy in the valley even today? Is movement or anger against the nation growing? Why Kashmiris support militancy and why so much of mass participation and sloganeering on militants’ funerals? Are such acts the sings of the mass alienation that has increased multifold due to bad governance and mass alienation or is it again the sentiment of secession from India that never dies down? Where will it lead us to and where will it end, nobody knows? Why nobody knows because nobody even the State government knows the methods of peace building on the ground but feels the pain only when it reaches the optimum? Are Kashmiri youth really so much alienated that even death is not a big deal now? Perhaps yes. There are endless questions and with alarming question marks at their end but till date with no answers.

A local told me that there is a sentiment which can never die down in the valley. Even there are brothers who want their sisters to marry a boy who is nothing but ‘Tehreek Pasand’ (Movement sympathiser).What has actually shaped such a mentality and mass perception, is a question to ponder over? Who is doing such a perception management in the valley? Analysts only call it Islamic radicalisation but i think it is beyond that.

“The shocking to see is the stone versus bullet again and the same civilian causalities. Does it mean people have lost the fear of death and prefer honour and dignity,” says a businessman. The question that still remains is the success of stone pelting as a practice among youth and who leads to such anger time and again, crisis mishandling, use of much force or what? Why hasn’t been stone pelting curbed so far? Who has failed and who will take responsibility for such a mess time and again?

“Even rifles are snatched and to the worst police personnel are kidnapped by protesters. The situation has crossed all limits. People hate local police even a cop was pushed in Jhelum along with his vehicle resulting in his death. It cannot be worst than this. Has police failed local aspirations or is facing the wrath of past mistakes?” says a young chap.

“The police feels caught between the devil and the deep sea, masses hate them and bosses push them against us”, says an old man.

“The new wave of anger against the system is on its full flair”, says a young man.

“The future of Kashmir may whatever be, but this uprising (he calls it Ragdo-3) is the severe one and may turn decisive, says a history student”. Will the state learn some lessons out of such repeated violence, i think not.

Burhans’s death led to many more deaths for his death is treated as a major setback to militancy in Kashmir and big success for forces. But the question as much debated in media now is that whether the new recruitment will increase or decrease due to this killing. If the poster boy got killed who will recruit now, some say, the dead Burhan will recruit, for emotion and inspiration may motivate the youth now. Sloganeering is everywhere, some raise pro-freedom slogans some eulogise Pakistan while some attach religion to the Kashmir’s political issue. Killings a routine these days still peoples sympathy seems increasing and violence slowly is becoming a part of culture.

“State has power and absolute power this time which is being used against us, we are still not afraid.” Preaches sloganeer during a protest.

As a social analyst and being an insider, one can see a different turn now. People especially well educated feel such killings are a mistake on the part of security forces as far as the bloody fallouts are concerned. State is not enough public sensitive and killings are still not replaced with arrests. Should forces prefer arrests to encounters?

The situation in the valley is obviously tense and everyone is sacred. People don’t necessarily fear security forces but fellow people for everyone has turned a rebel and violence against each other is almost legitimised. I myself had to rush to airport for the national capital at 2 am in the night just because of people’s protests during the day and stone pelting on the roads.

Despite the appeals of maintaining peace by PM Modi, Home Minister Rajnath Singh and the CM Mehbooba, peace is yet to return to the already peace fragile valley. Will only peace appeals do when so much needs to be done on the ground, remains a big question? Who will stop this routine bloodshed in the valley? Who will speak to angry youth and build peace in the valley? Who has the capacity to bridge the hateful gap between Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh? Who will restore peace and justice by delivering on HR abuse of the past? Who will value peoples’ lives and who will stop this killing spree? Centre has to ponder over it and think of a credible administration in Kashmir. Healing touch theory should be practised on the ground and i am sure PM Modi is capable of that.

Yesterday only the Hizb (PoK based Militant outfit) appointed a new commander after Burhan’s killing to continue what was being done, what does it indicate? Simply that this is not the end of the show. So making peace has fewer stakeholders than those producing more and more violence. We need permanent peace building strategy for Kashmir not just some statements of sorrow when it boils time and again. For a perpetual peace building in Kashmir, State primarily needs to engage with those who know and understand Kashmir well from a strategy and security perspective, State need the consultation with those who understand Kashmir well from its economic perspective and those who know the society of Kashmir well.

The death of the poster boy after all does not mean the end of the violent story and it has already affected the fragile normalcy of the valley.The and of the hour is to address the issue politically for a long lasting peace.

South Asia

The efficiency of German contribution in the Afghan peace process

Ajmal Sohail

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Germany is heavily involved in the afghan affairs since 9.11.2001; the country has brought in to being the modern Afghanistan thru launching the international Bonn conference “Bonn 1” in December 2001, the said conference toke place right after the collapse of the barbaric regime of Taliban in Afghanistan. Furthermore, it paved the way to engage several rival groups to establish an interim administration under the leadership of pro-American figure “Hammed Karzai”. Albeit the conference was a turning point in the Afghan modern history, but it encompassed numerous shortcomings because Taliban, Haqani Network and Hikmatyar band, who had been the main adversaries to the acting Government, were excluded from the process, which opened Pandora’s Box. Moreover, the national interests and apprehensions of the regional countries were not taken serious, which in turn caused destabilization and gloominess in Afghanistan.

Consequently, Pakistan and Iran who have been pursuing strategic depth in Afghanistan began to regroup, fund, train and outfit the Afghan government antagonists, which unfortunately incited a proxy war in the country. 

The second Bonn conference

Germany hosted the second Bonn conference in December the 5th 2011 to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the first Bonn conference, in order to renew the so-called mutual commitment to a table, democratic and prosperous future for Afghanistan.

In addition, the participants of the conference ought to shed lights on some issues such as governance, security, economic developments, regional cooperation, peace process and the way forward. The participants called for a political solution to achieve peace and security in Afghanistan, in order to ensure durable stability.

Additionally, it was discussed to promote capacity building in the country to uphold   a political process, to endorse negotiation and reconciliation. Unfortunately, the conference primarily focused on economic developments and continuation of democratization in the country, so that the peace process was sidelined and the root-cause of the instability and insecurity was not identified. Which ended up with further destabilization and blood-shed in addition, sparked fears and violence in Afghanistan.

Doha conference

In July the 7th 2019 Germany and Qatar hosted a conference in Doha Qatar, which was labeled intra-afghan dialogue. The hosting countries endeavored to bring about a framework in order to support the peace process in Afghanistan. In accordance with the joint statement, that the country is at a central crossroad to snatch the chance to accomplish peace, so the shortest concord linking the afghan adversary groups could be one of the essential factors of any process leading to such an objective.

It was also expect, that the conference would contribute to confidence-building amid chief rivals to hold up peace and constancy in Afghanistan. Although the conference did not have a tangible agenda, but at the end a resolution was released calling for reducing violence, avoiding to assail public institution and bringing civilian causalities to “zero”.  Despite the efforts of the conference hosting countries, the conference comprised inadequacies; the Afghan government, which ought to be the main party, was excluded from the direct-intra-afghan-dialogue.

Not only the ceasefire, which has been the only wish of the Afghans, was not sincerely addressed, but also no-part of the outlined resolution has been implemented. Regrettably convening of the conference did not put into practice the expectations of the Afghan people, so that the security situation fundamentally deteriorated.  

The third Bonn conference

Subsequent, to the walk out of the US president from the Afghan peace deal, Germany wants to jump in exerting its leverage to bring the Afghan rivalry bodies to the negotiation table. Germany is really concerned, if the US troops withdrawal will take place Kabul government would collapse and the positive developments have so far came about would be lost. Thus Markus Potzel Germany’s special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, since some times endeavors to hold meetings with the representatives of both Taliban and the Afghan government, in order to initiate another round of peace talks.  

 Consequently, If Germany genuinely put forth its efforts, it will help to avoid political vacuum in Kabul, let the democratization process to flourish, women rights to thrive and the economic prosperity to boom. Germany enjoys full-scale leverage in the entire region and beyond, because Germany stationed the second largest troops in Afghanistan, the country is one of the main initiator of the NATO Resolute Support Mission for Afghanistan and it is one of the top 10 contributors to the reconstruction process and humanitarian assistance in the country.

Germany has very good diplomatic relations with almost all of the surrounding countries of Afghanistan; it has influence on all of the gulf countries including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE, which are supposed to be the major patrons of Taliban.

In addition, Germany leads the EU commission and it is the number one economy in Europe and number 4 economy in the world. If it will put in 2% of its GDP to the NATO annual budget, Germany would be the second leverage enjoyer within NATO following the United States of America. So Counter Narco-terrorism Alliance Germany (cnt-alliance) express the need for the initiation of the third Bonn conference, which should include all opponents to be brought to the negotiation table, in order to form a framework of lasting peace, continuation of the political process, stability, Good and lean governance, economic prosperity, revival of democratic norms and revamping of human and women rights as well as confidence building amongst regional countries.   

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South Asia

Popularity-Graph of PM Imran Khan has not dropped down

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Although the economy of Pakistan has deteriorated, price hike, increase in utility bills, food prices and consumer prices of daily used items has grown up, the job market has deteriorated. According to a survey, mostly people are complaining about price-hike and the unavailability of jobs. Some people are complaining about the bad practice of nepotism and especially targeting “hired electable and technocrats”. It is a fact that the PTI government has failed to meet the expectations of its voters. PTI workers and supporters have been cornered and ignored.

What so ever the government is presenting economic parameters, to defend themselves. What so ever reasons or logic and explanation are provided by the Government to defend themselves? How much blame is put on previous governments, but the failure of the PTI government cannot be justified. The common man in Pakistan is a victim and suffering.

Yet, the popularity of Prime Minister Imran Khan has not deteriorated. According to a small scale survey, the public will vote for Imran Khan in the next general election. As per Survey, no one was willing to accept Maulana Fazl-u-Rehman, leader of JUI-F, as prime Minister of Pakistan. The popularity of PPP and PML-N has also deteriorated sharply.

Strange! It is really very strange, while people are complaining about the performance of PTI Government, but still, praise PM Imran Khan. Some people blame his team, while other analyses as the nature of issues inherited by the previous government are so complex that no one can manage quickly. It might take more time to reach any conclusion and favors that the PTI government should complete its term of 5 years and wait till 2023, for the general election.

Pakistan is a democratic country and the constitution of Pakistan protects the right of every citizen to protest, express his/her opinion, criticize the government and its policies, can organize any procession, demonstration or Dahrna – sit-in.  “Azadi March” is permissible in our system and legal, and the government has not offered any resistance in it. The government will not disturb them as long as they stay within the law and peaceful.

Such agitations are part of the Pakistani political system and has a long history. Whenever some of the political parties lose in the election, they blame the winner party or ruling party for rigging and asks them to resign and dissolve assemblies. Even the currently ruling party PTI has been protesting the Government in 2014 and so on. But history has witnessed, no Prime Minister one prime Minister resigned or assemblies dissolved in past as a result of opposition pressure. It is expected, that this time also the PM will not resign, and not dissolve the assemblies.

However, the opposition always gains millage and concessions through negotiations and deals. This time is also no exception and it is guessed that some way out will be explored soon.

But there is a lesson for PM, to pay more attention to the issues of the common man in Pakistan. He has to give due importance to PTI workers and supporters. He must respect the merit and create opportunities for qualified people.

There are 1.5 million fresh graduates every year entering the job market, but the creation of jobs is not in accordance with it. As a result, youth are desperate and unfortunately may involve in negative activities. It is worth mentioning that the biggest vote bank and political force for PM Imran Khan were “Youth”. Pakistan’s demography consists of 70% of youth under the age of 40.

It is suggested that PM may take serious notice of the ground situation. Realize the problems of the common man in Pakistan. May initiate major structural changes and deep reforms in all dimensions.

Pakistan possesses huge potential for growth if enabling environments are provided and right policies are implemented, there is no reason that Pakistan’s economy take-off rapidly.

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South Asia

Pakistan,a Victim of Vicious Circle: The Container Politics

Asad Ullah

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It’s pretty tough to comprehend Pakistan’s politics or the behavior of Pakistan’s political leaders. The example of Pakistan’s political system and politicians can be tacit with Robert Jervis’s astounding words. “When you pick up one piece of this planet, you find that one way or another, it’s attached to everything else-if you jiggle over here, something is going to wiggle over there… We need this sense of the continuing interconnectedness of the system as part of the common knowledge so that politicians feel it and believe it, and so that voters feel it and believe it, and so that kids feel it and believe it so that they’ll grow up with an ethic.”

Since 1947 Pakistan is trapped in a vicious circle, and it’s hard to get rid of this wicked circle with the current political system. Immense tension with neighbor countries, internal political instability, high inflation rate, massive unemployment, poverty, discrimination, corruption, human rights violation, economic problem, low level of domestic and foreign direct investment, energy shortage, wrecked infrastructure, weak and self-centered political leader ruined the country. Now we are witnessing a massive number of lessening faiths on the institutions of almost all kinds. People don’t trust the government; they don’t believe any corporation and virtually no political leader — the reasons why people’s trust is declining in government. The govern leaders do not fulfill their promises, they always raise different slogans spreading fake news to convince the voters for votes, but things are not still the same after elections; all the obligations remain broken. Thus, people certainly don’t believe politicians.

After 71 years of a bumpy hard and tough journey, the people of Pakistan in 2018 elected a new prime minister with much new hope, to fight against corruption and other serious challenges. This hope was up to the greatest extent achieved when the supreme court of Pakistan took action against the corrupt leaders and imprisoned them. With such enormous weight, the oppositions are now vindicating a mean to get rid of the present administration; the adversaries have started a long march called Azadi-March, with the aim to takeover Khan’s (Imran Khan Niazi current Prime minister of Pakistan) government. The majority of the people are against the so-called Azadi-March, as they are aware of situations. To sidetrack Imran Khan’s consideration, these opposition leaders have started Azadi-March, where thousands of protestors are marching to the capital city Islamabad, calling on prime minister Khan over the weak and fragile economy and corruption.

Some religious groups organized the Azadi-March and political rivals, Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazal (JUI-F) party prearranged the protests, almost all parties have used the march to show their complaints throughout what they call the Azadi March (or Freedom March).The main aim of the Azadi-March, calling Imran Khan to resign, they believe that the current government ruined to satisfy their promises, and the administration is amateurish, inexpert, and doesn’t distinguish how the state-run. While addressing the people, Fazal said all Pakistani, from Karachi to Islamabad, want that prime minister Imran Khan should resign, further stated that prime minister still has time to deferentially submit his resignation because the Pakistani will not give him also time to do so.

The purpose behind such Azadi-March isn’t only that they want to overthrow the prime minister, but they want him to stop disparaging the adversaries. The opponents, according to most of the local people, are corrupt and crooked, and they are responsible for the country’s weak institution and corruption. Since now, Khan is taking legal actions against the oppositions with the support of millions of Pakistani people, thus permit the opponents formed a coalition to stand against Khan. With the help of millions of people Khan isn’t against their Azadi-March, but it’s something everyone knows, the country is going through tough time, skirmishes with India and recently with Afghanistan, ongoing economic reforms, working to encourage tourists and foreign direct investment, and many other developmental projects, such actions or the so-called Azadi-March will ruin the hope of the current administration and people. The immediate adverse consequence of the Azadi-March is also on the recent Kashmir issue. Currently, the prime minister and his administration are working to find a solution for IOK,by voicing on a different medium, such domestic scuffle will not only hamper the objective but will instead encourage the neighbor states to take advantage of domestic unrest.

The time being Khan is dealing with massive problems, the oppositions should stand with Khan, instead of creating other domestic violence and discontent. The continues Azadi-March will do nothing more than internal turbulence and other dangerous predicaments that will hit the country with more severe difficulties. Democracy means the government of the people, by the people, for the people, which specify that the people of Pakistan elect the current government. Pakistan is a democratic country where people can choose any leader they trust. To make it more vibrant, Pakistan is not the legacy of some elites to govern all the time.

A country with more than 200 million people ought to decide their future; they should stand with Khan and support his campaign of fighting against corruption and corrupt people to bring peace, political stability, economic development, and employment opportunities. Fora very long time, we have experienced different government and their fake promises; they have tumble-down the state’s institutions, nepotism, favoritism, and cronyism, all were the hidden agendas of the previous government. Thus, it is clear that the present government is fighting against all the above problems.

Finally, let us begin anew — recalling the current Azadi-March, which is not a sign of being active or reliable, but rather a sign of weakness. Sincerity is always subject to proof, and when you don’t have a single proof, you are lucky enough to have needles in your chopsticks. Let us never negotiate with these political leaders who are involved in the march out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate.

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