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The Greatness of a ‘Normal’ Iran: The Real Challenges for a Post-JCPOA

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The recent Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreements between Iran and the international community will, no doubt, have a major impact on Iranian domestic politics. The agreements open the door to an increased opportunity for improved foreign relations and international business agreements that will be needed to help Iran emerge from years of economic hardship created by international sanctions. The question will be whether Iran will itself walk through this doorway to a more inclusive future in the international community or whether it will slowly close the door, untrusting of those waiting on the other side.

One thing is sure, however, and that is that whether or not Iran chooses the path of better international engagement, it will be done at Iran’s pace, and given the current structure of its ruling elite, that pace will be slow moving. The Iranian ideological structure is built to retain the status quo and given the level of distrust of the international community any amount of cooperation will be hotly contested. With conservatives firmly in control of the real sources of power, any foreign investment and involvement in the country goes against the grain of their core principles as was recently echoed when Ayatollah Khamenei recently said, the JCPOA is “just an excuse and a tool for penetration” and “an instrument for imposing their demands”. The push, however, will come from working and middle class Iranians who have suffered from years of recession and high inflation and are keen to see the economic inequality between themselves and those that have continued to prosper during the sanctions reduced.

Ideally a potential path for Iran would be one similar to that taken by China, starting in the late 1970s. Overcoming the trajectory set in place by Mao Zedong, reformers, led by Deng Xiaoping, moved the nation away from the communist ideology of the past and towards a more western capitalist approach. This would, however, be a difficult path for Iran. In Iran, unlike China, the Ayatollah inherits his power through Islamic ideology and without it his place at the top of the ruling structure would be in jeopardy. It is this resistance to relinquish any semblance of control that has highlighted Ayatollah Khamenei’s tenure to date. Since gaining power in 1989 Ayatollah Khamenei has not hesitated to use violence against his own people, as we saw in the Green Revolt of 2009, in order to retain firm control of the nation and to ensure alignment with the direction set forth in the 1979 Revolution. This violence, however, has also severed the delicate bond needed between the greater society and its ruling elite and is further exacerbated by the extreme economic hardships being suffered by the common Iranian.

Given the unlikelihood of any meaningful reform to the leadership structure of Iran there are, however, steps that can be taken to bring some measure of prosperity back into the common Iranian’s life without the wholesale changes that would require nothing short of another revolution. The first step would be to produce a more stable environment through which business and trade can be conducted within the private sector. The government would need to relinquish some of the control that it pulled from the private sector and tone down, somewhat, the anti-foreign rhetoric, allowing the international community greater access to investment opportunities throughout Iran. The JCPOA has gone a long way towards beginning the process of improving Iran’s standing within the international community and the government should work to not lose that momentum. Some forces inside Iran favor a stricter Iran that is resistant to interaction with outside nations and more isolationist, not unlike North Korea. It will be up to leaders like Rouhani to counter these groups and move Iran towards a more inclusive role in the global community.

The state should also ensure that it not fall into the trap of relying simply on the easy money that an easing of sanctions and a return of its oil and gas exports will bring. Wealth brought on by the export of oil and gas and used to purchase foreign-made products will not have the desired effect in reducing the state’s crippling unemployment problem, so emphasis should be given to the promotion of building a larger breadth of industry, such as manufacturing and agriculture, that could begin to support job growth among the largely unemployed youth of the nation. This is an important distinction to be made with a nation that has the rich cultural diversity and history of Iran.

The national economy is currently faced with at least five major imbalances that must also be addressed: (1) An international payments imbalance due to a highly over-valued exchange rate, increasing reliance of imports, lagging genuine non-oil-based exports, and a precarious and uncertain future oil-export market; (2) A budget imbalance caused by rising expenditures in the face of stagnant and doubtful revenues; (3) A resource imbalance due to artificially low prices for water, power, and fuels that encourage ever-expanding demand; (4) A monetary and financial imbalance resulting from government-directed low interest rates, non-performing banking assets, rising defaults, and an increasing flow of savings into the informal market and capital flight; (5) Finally, a labor imbalance resulting from the rising work force, inadequate in housing and industry, and an anti-business labor code. (Amuzegar, 2014)

Another key element going forward, and particularly in the case of President Rouhani, as his campaign platform is focused on such items, is progress in levels of freedoms, civil liberties, and political rights. Since his election Rouhani has focused mainly on the nuclear talks and to this point he has gotten a pass on some of these campaign promises not being addressed but as the JCPOA grows more distant in the rear view mirror he will be held more and more accountable for his inaction on these items. If Rouhani is to retain the level of support from the Iranian public that brought him into office then he will need to make significant progress into these areas. The unelected political elite do not share Rouhani’s vision for an increase in these freedoms and civil liberties, as they come into direct conflict with their conservative ideologies. So it is imperative that Rouhani work to find means to bridge the ideological gap.

Within Rouhani’s power to affect change in a positive manner, and in keeping with his campaign pledges, include items such as increased freedom of speech. Currently media outlets can be prosecuted for such things as criticizing government organizations and it is well within Rouhani’s power to encourage more restraint in these instances. Another important major platform promise that Rouhani will need to address was his promise to uphold the rights of women and to address cases of discrimination against them. The removal of restrictions on the participation of females in government, and enrollment of female students in certain academic disciplines, are all key items of concern.

A final matter of concern is that of governmental transparency. Currently there is a considerable lack of basic and reliable information needed to conduct basic business with regards to the nation’s economic issues. A key impediment to this much needed privatization is the lack of ownership structures needed to ensure proper transfers of entities to the private sector. Commitments to the observance of law and transparency throughout the legal process is also essential in establishing even the most basic of environments necessary for the successful integration of foreign businesses. This is where Iran is at the moment. The REAL success of the JCPOA is not so much in Grand Strategy proclamations and reinvigorating Empire, but rather in the small incremental successes of normalcy for the Iranian common people.

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Middle East

Can Biden Bring Peace to the Middle East?

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Joe Biden
Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz

As the fierce fighting between Israel and the Palestinians rages on, the Biden administration’s Middle East policy has been criticized for its relatively aloof, “stand back” approach that has resulted in the absence of any pressure on Israel to re-think its harsh mistreatment of the Palestinians, vividly demonstrated in the recent police attack at al-Aqsa mosque and the attempted eviction of Palestinians from their homes in East Jerusalem, viewed by the Palestinians as part of Israel’s “ethnic cleansing.”

Consequently, a UN Security Council draft resolution on the crisis has been reportedly held up by US, which has prioritized the familiar narrative of “Israel’s right to self-defense” ad nauseam, without the benefit any nuances that would reveal any fresh thinking on the problem on the part of the Biden administration.  As in the past, the new crisis in Israel-Palestinian relations has sharpened the loyalties and alliances, in effect binding the US government closer to its Middle East ally under the rainstorm of Palestinian rocket attacks, highlighting Israel’s security vulnerabilities in today’s missile age.  Determined to crush the Palestinian resistance, the mighty Israeli army has been pulverizing Gaza while, simultaneously, declaring state of emergency in the Arab sections of Israel, as if there is a military solution to an inherently political problem.  What Israel may gain from its current military campaign is, by all indications, bound to be elusive of a perpetual peace and will likely sow the seed of the next chapter in the ‘intractable’ conflict in the future.  

As the editors of Israel’s liberal paper, Haaretz, have rightly pointed out, the problem is the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is highly unpopular, unable to form a government, afflicted with a corruption case, and who has been appeasing the extremist elements in Israeli politics who have no qualm about the illegal expropriation of Palestinian lands.  Israeli politics for its own sake needs to move to the center, otherwise the Israeli society as a whole will suffer, as more and more educated Israelis will leave the country, Israel’s recent gains through the Abrahams accord with the conservative Arab states will be essentially wiped out, as these states will need to cater to the rising tide of anti-Israel sentiments at home or face serious legitimation problems, and Israel’s regional rivals led by Iran will continue to harvest from the present crisis.

Unfortunately, there does not seem to be any political will in Washington to spur a political shift in Israel that would secure better results in terms of the elusive Middle East peace and both President Biden and the Democratic Party establishment are concerned that their Republican opponents will seize on any tangible US pressure applied on Israel.  In other words, domestic US priorities will continue for the foreseeable future to hamper a much-needed corrective Washington influence on an ally that receives 4 billion dollar military aid annually and, yet, is unwilling to allow the White House to have any input on its handling of the Palestinians at home and the West Bank and Gaza.  

But, assuming for a moment that the Biden administration would somehow muster the will to stand up to Netanyahu and pressure him to cease its massive attacks on Gaza, then such a bold move would need to be coordinated with a deep Arab outreach that would, simultaneously, persuade the Palestinian groups led by Hamas and Islamic Jihad to go along with a US-initiated cease-fire, followed by related efforts at UN and regional level to bring about the groundwork for a more enduring peace, such as by holding a new international peace conference, similar to the Oslo process.  

At the moment, of course, this is wishful thinking and the protagonists of both sides in this terrible conflict are more focused on scoring against each other than to partake in a meaningful peace process.  In other words, an important prerequisite for peace, that is the inclination for peaceful resolution of the conflict instead of resorting to arms, is clearly missing and can and should be brought about by, first and foremost, a capable US leadership, sadly hitherto missing.

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Middle East

Israel-Palestine Conflict Enters into Dangerous Zone

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Palestinians react as Israeli police fire a stun grenade during clashes at Damascus Gate on Laylat al-Qadr during the holy month of Ramadan, in Jerusalem's Old City, May 9, 2021. /Reuters

Since the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan in mid-April 2021, tension has escalated, with frequent clashes between police and Palestinians. The threatened eviction of some Palestinian families in East Jerusalem has also caused rising anger. But when Israeli security forces entered and attacked the unarmed Muslim worshipers, damaged the property, and humiliated the families, the situation turned into conflict.

Since the irrational and illogical creation of the Jewish State in the middle of the Muslim World, the tension started and emerged into few full-fledged armed conflicts and wars like; 1948–49, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1982, and 2006 wars/ conflicts. Tensions are often high between Israel and Palestinians living in East Jerusalem, Gaza, and the West Bank. Gaza is ruled by a Palestinian group called Hamas, which has fought Israel many times. Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank complain that they’re suffering because of Zionists’ expansionist actions. Israel’s severe violations of human rights and extreme atrocities against Palestinians left Palestinians with no option other than protest and agitate. But Israel suppresses them and uses all dirty tricks to keep them silent.

It is worth mentioning that the United Nations Security Council has passed several resolutions to settle the Israel-Palestine issue peacefully. But Israel has not implemented either of them and kept using force to push them out and settle Jews in their land.

The State of Israel has been enjoying undue supported by the US, irrespective of who is president, but all of them support Israel unconditionally. Israel is the most favored nation of the US and the largest beneficiary of American aid, assistance, and support.

Ex-President Donald Trump helped Israel establish diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. Donald Trump favored Netanyahu, dramatically moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. His daughter and son-in-law were the facilitators for his support to Israel.

Till last news, at least 56 Palestinians have died under an array of aerial bombardments of the Gaza Strip. Five Israelis were killed too. Rockets, bullets, and rocks are flying around Israel and the Palestinian territories with catastrophic intensity in the latest wave of violence that periodically marks the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Palestinian protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by Israeli security forces amid clashes at Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa mosque compound on May 10, 2021, ahead of a planned march to commemorate Israel’s takeover of Jerusalem in 1967 Six-Day War.  Security forces have set on fire the centuries-old holy Mosque. Serious communal violence has broken out within Israel between Arab citizens and Jews. Fires were lit, a synagogue burned, a Muslim cemetery trashed, police cars set aflame, and an Arab-Israeli man killed. The mayor of Lod termed it a “civil war.”

The ferocity of the fast-escalating conflict might be extremely dangerous as Israel uses hi-tech, advanced, lethal weapons. A week ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemed close to losing power after the climax of four inconclusive elections. The outbreak of hostilities has allowed him the opportunity to make his latest appearance as a tough guy and ended coalition talks by rival politicians. He might politicize the conflict in his favor.

There is a severe danger of spreading this conflict to a large-scale war, which might engulf the regional countries. There already exists tension among Israel and few regional powers. The recent Israeli attacks on Russian bases in Syrian may also widen the conflict.

Any war in the middle-East will have dire consequences globally. It is appealed to the UN and all peace-loving nations and individuals to speed up all-out efforts to stop the conflict at this initial stage and avert further bloodshed. It is demanded that the Israel-Palestine issue must be settled according to the resolutions passed by UNSC. Wish immediate peace, sustainable peace, and permanent peace in the Middle East and globally.

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Middle East

Why the West Want to Stop Iran Becoming a Nuclear Power?

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Iran is a regional powerhouse in the Middle East only rivals Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey. The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is centuries old in terms of sectarian differences of Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia. The thousand year of schism of Islam presents in the Middle East. Moreover, the Islamic Revolution made Iran a fundamentalist impulsive state hostile to the West and Sunni neighbors. Iran is trying to be a nuclear power since 2007 following the great powers and other nuclear states. Iran has always interpreted its nuclear ambition as only to acquire energy and always express against use it as weapon. But this is not true at all as it is going to acquire it to show power against the rival Saudi Arab, the West and USA. There are convictions that the Western Powers let India, Pakistan and Israel to be a nuclear power but they are now against Iran. But this is not the case as several Reasons are behind to stop Iran to be a nuclear power.

Firstly, if Iran becomes a nuclear power, it will simply emerge as the sole regional superpower in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, the ally of the West will not be a match for Iran. The Middle Eastern ‘balance of power’ will not be maintained. This will lead to very severe repercussions and the chance of maintaining future ‘balance of power’ in the reason will be in disarray. As a result, Saudi Arabia will want to acquire nuclear weapon to counter Iran in the region. As Saudi Arabia has money, either it can acquire nuclear weapon by researching or to buy weapons or technology from Pakistan.

From 1990s, Pakistan is selling nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea. As the economy of Pakistan is in great disarray, it might sell its nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia for billons of dollar. Turkey might try to acquire nuclear weapon to counter Saudi Arabia and the Egypt will want to acquire nuclear weapon to counter Turkey. It will start a sick competition in the Middle East to acquire the nuclear weapons which later may spread throughout the world. The efforts of Nuclear Proliferation will be null and void in a decade.

Another problem will arise if Iran becomes a nuclear power in terms of the failure of calculating nuclear deterrence. It is not unknown that USA acquired nuclear power first, then USSR acquired to counter or balance the power of USA, then it was the beginning of arms race. India acquired nuclear weapon to balance China in the region after the loss of 1962 war. Pakistan countered Indian nuclear power as it is unable to fight and win a war against a mighty power like India. Western powers primarily imposed sanctions on them but later withdrew. But if Iran acquired it, the nuclear deterrence or the calculation of nuclear war threats will be complicated. Who will counter who, who will attack who the probability or the calculation of the probability will be huge. There will be miscalculations and chances of total devastating war will be huge. Nuclear power Israel might attack Iran as preemptive action. In this indicating situation, Waltzs’ nuclear deterrence does not work.

Secondly, Iranian world view and ideology does not support the idea of Westphalia world order. The leaders of Iran and its revolution including Ayatollah Khomeini declared in 2013, they want to unite the believers (Muslim Ummah); they want to vanquish the dominance of the Western powers, USA and its allies. Iran is now influenced by Radical Islamist Syed Qutb according to Henry Kissinger, and working both with Shiite and Sunni Radical organization. According to Kissinger, Iran has connection to Al-Qaeda and Taliban as they armed them. Iranian leadership thinks that they are on a Holy War (Jihad) against the unbelievers and these ideas are making the nuclear program even threatening. If Iran has nuclear weapon, can be in the hands of terrorist organizations or the radical and impulsive leadership might be threat to the nearby states, US allies, Russia, China or Israel. Any impulsive leadership can use it to wipe out the unbelievers in fighting a Jihad. Even they can use the nuclear arms as bargaining chip with the West or neighboring countries as North Korea did.

Thirdly, Iran already has its own nuclear delivery system and missile technologies. This made Iran a more ready nuclear power than previous nuclear powers like India and Pakistan, have been. So the only way to inhibit the nuclear capability of Iran is to reduce its capability to enrich Uranium. Iran has thousands of Uranium centrifuges and they wanted to reduce capacity of the half of the centrifuge to only 5 percent Uranium. According to Iran they will not enrich Uranium to 20 percent. This 20 percent Uranium is not important as 5 percent Uranium as this 5 percent Uranium is the threshold from where in a few months Iran can produce weapon category Uranium which make Iran as more unreliable.

In 2015 Iran signed Joined Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a nuclear treaty with the five members of United Nations Security Council (P5) plus Germany which is called P5+1. As a result sanctions were withdrawn from Iran by the West. Ex-President Donald Trump declared withdrawal from the deal in 2018 and imposed the sections on Iran. Iran in 2019, Iran breached the limit set on the deal and IAEA confirmed it. After the Baghdad Airstrike killed Qasem Solaimani, Iran wanted to increase its nuclear capability. The good news is, in December 2020, America desired to rejoin the deal, and the new Biden administration is working on it.

Iran is a pivotal country in the Middle East. Anything Iran does may echo in the region. Middle East is already a complicated region with a lot of conflict and potential problematic issues. To sustain peace in the region including the balance of power, world powers are working on it. Time will tell how fruitful the initiatives are. The West must ensure that Iran respect and be a part of the Westphalia order which is a good start.

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