As the fight for presidency by the republican and democratic candidates get intensified US with a very few candidates remaining for the contest, President Barack Obama must know his happy days at White House are coming to an end soon. World expects Obama to ensure peace in Mideast as his major achievement by arm twisting the unwilling fanatic and fascist regime Israel to agree for credible peace as per the Arab peace Plan of 2002 that would have full cooperation of the GCC and entire world frantically seeking a new peaceful ea in west Asia.
The question is will Obama care for world opinion at all when his opinions are not at all listened to by anyone including Israeli leaders? Does it not mean the Obama diplomacy has failed!
Israel, imposed on Mideast into Palestine in 1948 by USA-UK big twins, has over years of western aid and arms& technology supply has become a monstrous fascist and illegal nuclear power in the region, threatening the very existence of Palestinians. The Zionist regime has taken the ‘permanent’ US shield for all criminal operations against humanity for granted and so much that today Jews decide the foreign policy for USA especially for West Asia and South Asia.
The US presidents make ritual trips to Israel not to declare the continuous US led Western support but in doing so Washington openly admits that the Israeli role in the foreign policy making of USA, especially in West and South Asia. It is not surprising that many countries like India are trying to be in the good books of Israel and strike military deals for Zionist terror equipment. .
When he assumed power at White House, there was a strong belief in the world that US President Barack Obama would try to fight for world peace and get the Palestinians out of Israeli terror blockades and stop the Israeli illegal occupation and crimes against humanity, by ending their intermittent terror attacks. However, he disappointed the world by supporting the Israeli terror regime in Mideast because he was pursuing the US national interest in Mideast by using Israel.
As the regular US President, Barack Obama just advance the imperialist and capitalist policies very religiously. Though he protected the US-Israeli secret nexus and Pentagon supply of terror goods to Tel Aviv, Obama once famously said he would “always have Israel’s back,” may be rethinking that promise as aides begin weighing options in response to Israeli leader Netanyahu’s election criticism of Obama’s foreign policy and his disapproval of a two-state solution to the Middle East conflict.
When, some time back, President Obama warned that the United States would reassess its relationship with Israel though Israel did not think any new problem cropping up in the bilateral relations as it is the ‘prime duty’ of USA and its NATO allies to shield Israeli regime. However, following Obama’s warning that the United States would “reassess” its relationship with Israel, the White House was not only reconsidering the diplomatic cover along with veto it has long given Israel at the United Nations but was also looking at a range of other possibilities to put pressure on its historically close ally to help resolve the Palestine issue. Bu later, when Palestine pushed for full UN status for conducting international affairs as a soverign nation, Obama used its power to support Israel and oppose Palestine. Obama thus reveled his true Zionist color. Even US officials who hitherto promoted Zionist regime and shielded all its crimes against humanity by misusing media networks have begun take a strong position on Israel. .
As a fascist tradition, US presidents not only misuse the American parliament to support all Zionist crimes against humanity but also, in order to obtain political support of US Jews, encourage the criminal ruler so Israel to address the august body in Washington. But the US parliament is meant for Americans to pass laws, among other things.
Why should US leaders allow Israeli leaders to address the US lawmakers – is there something common between them? Do the US values like capitalism and imperialism plus fascism serve as the strong bridge between Israeli East and American West?
Americans should be ashamed of the fact that off and on Israeli leaders insist on addressing the US Congress to discuss Israeli politics and instruct US policy makers – both domestic and foreign – the course they are supposed to pursue in a given situation. When they persistently insist, the Republicans and even Democrats make the necessary ‘arrangement’ for hawkish Zionist rulers to address the US lawmakers. Israeli leaders address the US Congress and direct the president to execute what is necessary for the promotion of Israeli regime.
Let Israeli leaders are free to misuse their own parliament Knesset for mere anti-Palestine, anti-Arab propaganda purposes but how can they do the same of misusing US parliament for that purpose?
There is an emerging opinion among most Americans to let Israel defend its own actions and crimes against humanity and Washington should be less active in protecting Israel in international forums. The bipartisan leaders are finding new ways to reinforce the message of US opposition to Jewish settlement expansion.
Many Arab leaders and governments have come to view Israel’s occupation of Palestine and its behavior towards the Palestinians as strictly an Israeli-Palestinian problem, not an Arab one. That’s a departure from a bygone era when the struggle against the occupation was a central theme that brought Arab states together. Therefore, Qatar’s official foreign policy towards the occupation and the plight of Palestinians sets it apart from the majority of the Arab world.
Recently, the 16th Doha Forum has wrapped up with speakers from around the world touching on issues ranging from global and regional security to conflict resolution and climate change. Achieving Middle East peace directly linked to ending Israel’s occupation of Palestine and Israel must end occupation of Palestine, said Qatar’s foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdurrahman Al Thani, while speaking at the 16th Doha Forum. He stressed the need to support human rights and bolster security for the people of the Middle East region – and around the world. “Repression, tyranny, double standards and violating human rights and basic freedoms constitute the underlying threats to elements of human security,” he said. According to Sheikh Mohammed, achieving peace in the volatile Middle East is directly linked to ending the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, including Jerusalem. Al Thani also made it clear the main foreign policy instrument of his country is the soft diplomacy of “mediation” efforts, while at the same time “discouraging the use of force by Israeli regime to resolve disputes”.
Saeb Erekat, the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s chief negotiator with Israel, spoke about his people’s need for international backing to force Israel to end its decades-old takeover of Palestinian lands. Erekat compared what he called the “right-wing extremism” of Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, with that of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS) group. “What is the difference between one who calls himself the leader of the Jewish state, and another who calls himself as the leader of the Islamic State,” he said in one his many sharp rebukes of Netanyahu. “The two-state solution is the only possible solution that would put an end to the suffering of the Palestinian people,” he said.
Even as international outcry for the creation of Palestine state and internal discussions on containing Israeli aggression continue unabated, Obama seems not to be in hurry to solve the worst ever conflict in human history. The US double speak is evident from the way the USA plays mischief with Palestine and GCC at the same time by speaking for the Zionist crimes.
However, the White House appeared in no rush to lower the temperature in the worst US-Israeli crisis in decades, sparked by Netanyahu’s campaign declaration that there would be no Palestinian state on his watch. The White House officially made clear that it had little faith in Netanyahu’s effort to backtrack since winning election and insist he was in favour of a two-state solution, long a cornerstone of US Middle East policy.
Interestingly, there was no sign of any imminent move to turn the administration’s heated rhetoric against Netanyahu into a tangible shift in policy.
As USA was readying for a nuclear deal with Ira against the will of is real, some analysts questioned whether Washington was merely posturing to put the Israeli leader on the defensive at a time when an end-of-March deadline looms in US-led nuclear diplomacy with Iran that Netanyahu vehemently opposes. The Obama government put everything on the table except security assistance, thinking this would allow Netanyahu time to walk back his comments on Obama more credibly.
Obama eyed on the powerful US Jewish support for the Democrats in Presidency poll. The US officials privately were mindful of the risk that the diplomatic storm could drive a deeper wedge between the White House and the influential US pro-Israel lobbyist camp and cause problems for Obama’s fellow Democrats as the 2016 presidential campaign approaches. Many strategists voiced skepticism that the US government would shift its stance towards Israel in any substantive way, arguing that despite White House annoyance at Netanyahu, there would likely be too high a domestic political cost to pay for alienating pro-Israel Americans.
But the White House pressure had other motives as well. There’s an effort to apply leverage to the Israelis to get the prime minister to move on some things when he has a new government formed, as there was a US wish to see Israel release frozen Palestinian tax funds and take other goodwill gestures.
Israel takes care not to annoy Washington beyond certain point as it depends on US veto to shield its crimes from any possible punitive measures against the criminal rulers for its crimes against Palestinians and humanity at large. Among the most serious risks for Israel would be a shift in Washington’s posture at the United Nations. If USA refuses to use its veto for Israel , all Jewish leaders would be in jails.
The United States has long stood in the way of Palestinian efforts to get a UN resolution recognizing its statehood, including threatening to use its veto, and has protected Israel from efforts to isolate it internationally. But most European governments incensed by Netanyahu’s campaign comments against Palestinian statehood, have joined in another push for such a resolution, ignoring US-Israel pressure tactics.
David Makovsky, a former member of Obama’s team in Israeli-Palestinian peace talks that collapsed last year, said the question is: “Will the U.S. consider avoiding a veto over the parameters to a final-status deal with the Palestinians?” “There’s no doubt that this approach will lead to a firestorm between these two governments if they go forward,” said Makovsky, now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Another option under consideration could also be controversial. A report from the government to Congress about US loan guarantees to Israel, including how much is used for settlements, could contain language critical of expanded construction on occupied land in the West Bank.
Today humanity is fully aware of destructive and anti-human nature of capitalism that promotes expansionist military trends like imperialism and colonialism. Occupation of and continued Israeli aggression against Palestine, like Indian brute occupation of neighboring Jammu Kashmir, does not let peace dawn in the world. Even countries that seek help from the USA, Israel or India also condemn the brutality and repression of these ‘rogue’ powers against the oppressed nations under their colonial yoke, notwithstanding the “help” being offered by the colonialist nations.
All these years ever since Israel was established in Mideast by the then big powers led by UK-USA twins, the western rulers pampered the illegal regime in Mideast with terror goods and technology, and money, today Israel has every reason not to take any warning from western capitals seriously and deny a chance for peace in West Asia. Comprehending the total failure of his triclomacy, President began supporting the Israeli fascism as part of NATO imperialism.
That is tragedy of the Palestinians and diplomacy itself.
Will Obama’s United States is not likely to reverse its opposition to the powerless Palestinians becoming a full-fledged UN member and a soverign nation? Instead of stopping a large sized aid and terror goods supply to Israel, some fanatic US lawmakers already have threatened to push for a cutoff of the meager US aid to the Palestinian Authority whenever it talks about sovereignty from the Zionist fascist yoke or goes ahead with seeking justice and war crimes charges against Israel for war crimes in the Gaza Strip, killing thousands of innocent Palestinians, women their children inclusive.
Will Obama refuse meetings with Israeli leaders and their US lobbyist till he leaves the White House?
President Obama has to take hard decision to disobey US Jewish dictates and declare Palestine a soverign state and support the cause of Palestine UN, by using veto for the Palestine for a change. Will he?
Or, will the White House seeker Trump who is not sympathized with Palestinians make a shift in his approach by openly supporting the Palestinians cause, if he elected to presidency?
It is really funny that President Obama is unable to make Israel listen to him when USA offers huge aid packages to Israel but some American senators and Congress men – the traitors of US democratic foundations for freedom and peace – get sumptuous bribes from Israeli government and Jewish politicians to help the Israeli regime eat the US terror cake.
Obama has enough economic and military tools to get a positive response from Tel Aviv only if he has the will and broad-mind a true statesman should have!
Whether Obama decides to change the petrified US policy for Palestine and Arab world or not, time is overdue for US lawmakers and law-breakers to think seriously about the future of children of Palestine and protect its people as part of their international duty.
Enough of shielding the Zionist criminal wars!
Are The U.S. And Its Partners Losing The Grip On Syria’s North East?
The oil-rich province of Deir Ezzor located in Eastern Syria has witnessed another escalation between the local Arab populace and the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Unexpectedly for the SDF and the U.S. military, the protesters have established control over a number of towns, and it seems they are willing to go further.
Sources close to the SDF initially reported that the protesters limited their demands by requesting a solution to a number of minor issues, but soon enough it became evident that it was not the case and the issue – and a major one – was the presence of SDF in the area. The demonstrators were quick to turn from chanting slogans to taking control of towns: in a single day they captured all of Shuhayl, Al-Hawayej, Diban and forced the SDF members to leave before blocking the roads.
The protests were sparked by a series of assassinations of influential leaders of Al-Aqidat and Al-Baqara tribes. Three Deir Ezzor sheikhs were killed in less than a week: Sheikh Suleiman Khalaf al-Kassar from Al-Aqidat was shot in Busayra village July 30. The next day Sheikh Suleiman Al-Weis who belonged to Al-Baqara was shot in the head by two gunmen on a motorcycle in Al-Dahla. Finally, Sheikh Muttshar al-Hamoud al-Hifl was shot in the outskirts of Al-Hawayej on Sunday, August 2. His relative Sheikh Ibrahim al-Hifl was also wounded in the incident but survived.
In a peculiar coincidence, a few weeks before the assassinations the tribal leaders were invited to a meeting with the SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi with the U.S. servicemen also present. The agenda reportedly included co-operation between the tribes and the SDF. It was reported that at least one of the victims, Muttshar al-Hifti, declined to participate and to engage with the Americans.
An insight into the details of these meetings can be gained through the reports about an oil deal allegedly struck by the SDF and a little known American oil developer Delta Crescent LLC. Delta Crescent was granted exclusive rights for production, refinement and export of the oil from Deir Ezzor fields potentially bringing the participants annual profit of hundreds of millions dollars, according to statements made by U.S. officials. The deal was met with harsh response from the Syrian government who labeled it a “deal between thieves”.
According to sources on the ground, the implication is that those who fell victim to the assassinations shared this view and opposed the deal. Their removal, however, has clearly failed to deliver the results intended by the masterminds behind their deaths, yet another time when the Kurds were thrown to the wolves by the U.S. who is accustomed to making their allies bear the consequences of the reckless pursuit of the American interests.
Meanwhile the SDF started to amass forces in the vicinity of the areas shaken by the unrest. The reinforcements sent from Al-Shadadi, Al-Sousa and Baghuz are gathering at the US military base near Al-Omar oil field. Moreover, two US Apache attack helicopters were spotted patrolling the area. These developments combined with lack of report on any negotiations between the protesters and the SDF leadership paint a grim picture, indicating that the SDF likely intends to use force to disperse the protests.
It is not the first time the SDF resorts to the use of force when faced with the discontent of the local populace in north-eastern Syria, although this approach had never brought the desired result. All areas affected by the protests have been subjected to dozens of raids of the SDF and the US special forces. Reports on these operations unfailingly mentioned arrests of ISIS terrorists. They failed to mention, however, what the Pentagon files under the category of “collateral damage” – deaths of civilians killed in the result of the actions of the US military and their allies.
The upheaval in Deir Ezzor is yet another evidence that the SDF, initially an independent movement, has degraded to a tool or a lever of American influence in Syria, and now finds itself fighting consequences instead of locating the root cause of the unrest – widespread corruption among the officials of the Kurdish administration and dramatic deterioration of the living conditions.
The regional turbulence created by Washington’s constantly shifting stance – or rather a lack of stance – on Syria has grown so strong it finally turned against the American interests. The latest escalation in Deir Ezzor should be considered nothing but a byproduct of this ill-designed policy and, perhaps, marks a beginning of the end of the US and SDF hegemony in Syria’s North East.
The Looming Disaster of the Safer Oil Tanker Moored off the Coast of Yemen
Amidst the raging conflict in Yemen, the challenge of the Safer Oil Tanker emerges as one of the most hazardous risks to the environment safety in the Red Sea as a result of the potential oil spillage in the Red Sea at any moment.
Following expressing deep alarm, the United Nations Security Council called on 29 June,2020, to immediately grant unconditional access for the United Nations technical experts to assess the tanker’s condition without overdue to prevent growing risk of possible rupture, explosion or even spillage.
The threat of the floating Oil Tanker, moored off the coast of Yemen, does not only impose challenges to the geopolitical and strategic importance of the Red Sea, but it rather represents a huge challenge that threatens the environment safety, leading to one of the largest environmental hazards in the world, after the unforgettable 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill disaster in Siberia – Russia.
On 18 July 2019, the United Nations Humanitarian Affairs Coordinator Mr. Mark Lowcock informed the UN Security Council of the growing threats of the deserted Safar Oil Tanker, warning of possible explosion or leakage of its loads [1.14 M barrels of crude oil]. In his briefing on the humanitarian situation in Yemen, he pointed out that such an incident would result to a disastrous crisis to the marine life in the Red Sea and maritime in the straits of Bab-Al Madeb and Suez Canal which are two significant water corridors to the world.
It is known that the Red Sea is home for some scarce invertebrates such as corals and 600 species of fish. Unless preventative measures are taken now and immediately to prevent oil spill or possible tanker explosion, we will concretely witness a disastrous incident leading to severe effect on the Red Sea marine environment, and on both biodiversity and livelihoods starting from Yemen and extending north to Suez Canal through Jobal strait and the Gulf of Suez and south through Bab-Al Madeb strait reaching even Hormoz strait through the Arabian sea.
Environment experts’ projections expect that 115 islands are vulnerable to the risk of oil pollution; 126,000 fishermen will lose their source of income, among them 76,000 fishmen are in Al Hodeidah governorate; 850 tons of fish stocks will be exposed to the danger of contamination and death in Yemen, in the Red Sea and in Bab Al-Mandam; more than 500 fish species are at high risk of disappearing; and 300 corals will certainly disappear as a result.
The problem emerged following the takeover of the Capital Sanaa on 21 September 2014, when Houthi militias implemented unilateral actions inter alia dissolving parliament and taking over Yemen’s government institutions, which have seriously escalated the situation, leading to illegitimate seizure of power “coup d’etat”, and eventually leading to current conflict in Yemen.
The floating storage and its connected offloading terminals have not been inspected or maintained since 2015 after Houthis militias took control of the area including port of Ras Isa to which the floating tanker is connected by terminals extending 9km off the coast of Yemen.
Yemen’s internationally-recognized government has warned in many letters of evident corrosion and lack of maintenance, creating the conditions for serious environmental disaster. The Yemeni government made an urgent call for the UN to send inspection team to scale the risks.
Unfortunately, the UN inspection team was denied access to the floating tanker by the Houthi militias many times. The UN inspection team is tasked with the mission to provide the necessary inspection and put recommendations for the needed maintenance and continuing to create obstacles will refrain the team from reaching the tanker and delivering the urgent inspection.
Lately, the Government of the Republic of Yemen repeated asserting the urgent emergency of the imminent catastrophe of the floating “Safer Oil Tanker”. The government confirmed that “given the critical nature of the aging floating tanker’s situation, on 27 May 2020 leaks have been reported in the tanker causing water leaked into the tanker’s operational machineries raising the possibilities of the tanker rupturing, sinking or even exploding.
Despite urgent fixing of leaking occurred, the deteriorating situation of the tanker threatens continuing eroding. As a result, on 15 July 2020, the UNSC held a session to debate latest urgent developments and called for urgent response to be taken by the Houthi militias as required by the inspection team. It is worth mentioning that the Houthis always show willingness to accept the inspection team just like the assurances made by the Houthis in August 2019 only to be withdrawn right before the inspection team was due to board the tanker.
The Yemeni government has always approved all relevant initiatives recommended by the UN to allow addressing the serious matter and proposing necessary urgent solutions to the Safer oil tanker, as part of the responsibility to the humanitarian and economic measures proposed by the office of the UN Special Envoy Mr. Martin Griffiths and as part of its responsibility to building and sustaining environment safety; however, the Houthi militias continue refusing to allow permissions to the UN inspection team to visit the oil tanker, noting that the situation of the Safer oil tanker is becoming extremely critical more than ever, causing increasing threats of possible oil spillage, tanker sinking and explosion at any moment.
In conclusion, the Safer Oil Tanker is a floating time-bomb and allowing inspection and maintains is the only possible means that will stop a serious catastrophe from happening. If incidents of explosion or even oil spill occur, that will lead to one of the worst man-made environmental disasters in the Red Sea. Action must be taken immediately while we have in hand an opportunity to protect the environments and spare the lives of millions of people in Yemen and the region from a looming tragedy.
Greater Implications of the Iran-China Deal on India
Authors: Dhritiman Banerjee and Subarna Mustari*
India entered as a stakeholder in the development of Iran’s Chabahar port in 2016 as part of an India- Afghanistan- Iran trilateral agreement on Establishment of International Transport and Transit Corridor. A landmark strategic victory for India, this agreement not only connected New Delhi with Kabul but also provided India a link to Eurasia through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Additionally, it sought to challenge China’s investment in the Gwadar Port in Pakistan as part of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Indian involvement in the Chabahar- Zahedan Railway project therefore has far-reaching implications for New-Delhi’s interests in the Asian geopolitical scenario. However, after Iran’s signing of a landmark investment deal with China earlier this year, we aim to analyze the implications of the deal on India in this article.
The Middle East is particularly important to India because of its vast energy resources. Stephen P. Cohen feels that five factors steer India’s policy in the Middle East namely:
1. Energy Security: India is very reliant on Oil and Gas resources from the Middle East and therefore relations with most of the major suppliers including Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iraq are strategically important to India. And India does not want to become a victim to a sudden increase in Oil and Gas prices or a temporary embargo of these resources as the pipeline from Central Asia to India via Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan is not likely to materialize soon.
2. The Muslim Factor: Although a secular democratic State, India has a very high Muslim population who resonate with countries in the Middle East which brings out the relation between India’s foreign and economic policy on the one hand and domestic politics on the other. This linkage has particularly increased in importance after the passing of the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) by the Modi Government which is thought to be discriminatory against Muslims and has provoked sharp criticism from the international community.
3. The Kashmir Factor: For Indian foreign policy it is of paramount importance that the Middle Eastern States do not interfere in Kashmir or support Pakistan regarding the issue. Therefore it conducts a “sophisticated balance of power diplomacy” in order to contain the spread of Pakistani influence regarding Kashmir and to keep the Kashmir issue out of all discussions.
4. The Israel Factor: India’s recent cultivation of strategic relations with Israel has led to important advancements in the technology, intelligence, and military sectors as well as important leverage in the US but many analysts in India are still skeptical about cultivating close relations with Tel Aviv. Eventually it can be said that a balance between Tel Aviv and Tehran will become an important factor in Indian Foreign Policy.
5. The Non-Proliferation Factor: Because of India’s strategic relations with the US, India does not want to violate American non-proliferation goals in the region. But Indian strategists have had a long history of skepticism regarding American non-proliferation strategies and tactics with skepticism. In fact the Indian leadership was at the forefront in the development of the theoretical case against the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the global non-proliferation regime. In fact, most of the arguments developed by India are now used by Iran and North Korea to justify their opposition to the NPT and therefore India must find a solution to this paradox in the near future as although its record of horizontal proliferation has been very good, it has been an example for States regarding vertical proliferation.
China’s offer to invest $400 billion in Iranian oil and gas sectors over 25 years tokening a comprehensive trade and military partnership between the two nations is undoubtedly far more beneficial to Iran than India’s promise of a $150 million investment scheme over 10 years. This deal is mutually beneficial for both China and Iran and the Iranian economy reeling under sanctions will get a much needed lifeline. Similarly, China is facing international criticism over its aggressive political and military strategies that include attempts at hegemonizing the South China Sea (SCS) at the cost of the other littoral States, passing a new security law to strengthen its control over Hong Kong and engaging in a border standoff with India in Ladakh. This deal therefore allows China a strategic leverage in the Middle East. China’s strategic decision for such an investment into Iran comes at a notable time – immediately following the Sino-Indian Border Clash of June 2020. Iran’s decision to choose a more lucrative deal from a more lucrative regional partner facing the same extra-regional opponent – the United States – intersects directly with India’s vested security interests in Iran against both China and Pakistan. Furthermore, India’s relations with the United States puts both India and Iran in a very complicated situation with Iran at greater risk of allowing more Chinese presence than India in the region, given the former’s bigger investment and the mutual threat of the United States.
India, compared to China, not only has far less to offer economically to neutral yet strategic prospective allies (Iraq, Iran, and other Gulf nations) in countering China in the West Indian Ocean Region (IOR), but its alliance with the extra-regional United States has compromised Iran’s faith in India as concrete ally. With such a timely investment, China has in one stroke obtained a highly strategic regional ally against the United States in securing its energy concerns, and simultaneously taken the battle directly to Iran where India is attempting to undermine China’s String of Pearls (SOP) strategy (Gwadar Port, Pakistan) through the Chabahar Port.
Furthermore, India’s recent history of erratic dealings in the middle-east, and compliance with the US’s policies in Asia has dipped the region’s confidence in India as a reliable regional partner. China’s already expanding foothold in the middle-east and Africa, and stronger deliverance makes it a better prospective partner for Arab nations who see China as such. In fact, in recent years China’s influence has grown in the region through an increase in economic investment. Between 2005 and 2019, China has invested over $55 billion in the region according to the AEI’s China Global Investments tracker. Between 2004 and 2014, China also gave financial assistance of $42.8 billion to the region according to Aid Data Research lab. Also for many States in the Middle East, China is their most reliable trade and strategic partner as well as a key source of technology and armed drones. Therefore, it can be claimed that while Iran and China have patterned their foreign policies in such a way that it regionally benefits them against extra-regional influences; India’s current foreign policy narrative accounts to a degree of dependency on extra-regional powers that limits its regional interests of security against its two biggest border rivals – China and Pakistan. Secondly, India’s engagement with the United Sates in the maritime arena remains limited in the eastern side of the Indian Ocean at a time when India needs to increase a collaborative presence on the western side – which, given the unfavorable economic effects of the pandemic and wishful economic management of the Indian Government, leaves room only for clever diplomacy on India’s part. Therefore, Indian dealings in the middle-east and in the West IOR have to be strategically designed with not just extra-regional allies which share the same apprehensions of Chinese presence; but also look to secure greater strategic partnerships with East Asian nations like South Korea and Japan to balance its over-dependence on the United States for energy and geopolitically diversify its defense against China’s SOP doctrine.
India, apart from expedient solidification of its energy, trade, and security interests in the middle-east, has to double-down on its Act East Policy especially with Indonesia and Malaysia. In fact, in this regard it can be said that relations with these two countries, particularly with Indonesia, will be of paramount importance to India. This will help cement India’s claim of a rules based maritime order in the Indo-Pacific in order to check Chinese attempts to hegemonize the region. In this regard, the link between the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Aceh Province in Indonesia will cement maritime ties between the two countries and help to check Chinese advances near the strait of Malacca through the SOP strategy. However, a major restriction to such collaborations in this regard, would be the persecution of Muslims under the Modi government in India and the religious radicalism prevailing in the country. Another more viable option available to India is the QUAD group consisting of India, US, Australia and Japan. India can use this grouping to not only uphold its claim of a rules based maritime order but also gain a foothold in the SCS region and pose a challenge to China through close alliances with the QUAD and ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations). Therefore, to conclude, it can be said that a new Cold War maybe brewing between India and China which might set to define the very nature of Asian geopolitics in the near future.
* Subarna Mustari is an undergraduate student of Political Science at Bethune College, Kolkata. Her interests lie in Political Science and International Relations as well as in history of war, colonialism and philosophy. She has recently published for Modern Diplomacy.
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