“My foreign policy will always put the interests of the American people and American security above all else.” Donald Trump’s recent speech discussed his overall foreign policy theme. In the course of navigating through his speech, Donald Trump attempted to paint a new global direction for America that breaks away from the “rusting” trajectory of US foreign policy since the end of the Cold War.
While sounding almost elementary, Trump vowed to return the US to a timeless principle of “America First,” which he argued has been absent from US foreign policy objectives for a while. As Trump read through his speech, there was a dialectical engagement of sorts with the audience on whether America has been protected by her foreign policy for the past 25 years. After discussing and critiquing the status quo, Donald Trump laid out his vision for a new America.
After glorifying the past and discussing the necessities of certain wars such as World War II and the Cold War, Trump turned his attention to the current state of foreign policy. He argued that America has lost her way since the end of the Cold War by engaging the world with a vision of “foolishness and arrogance.” Interestingly, this castigation of US foreign policy is bipartisan in the fact that he was critiquing Clinton, Bush, and Obama. More importantly, he gets to the root of failure in American foreign policy. He critiqued the premise that American intervention would lead to Jeffersonian democracies around the world. In such a manner, he condemns the humanitarian interventionist policy of Bill Clinton, nation building of George Bush and neo-democratic interventions of Barack Obama. Trump defies what the media, Republicans, and Democrats all neglect; by stating the large degree of culpability the US shares in decimating the infrastructures of the nations the US has intervened in and creating the environment for terror to thrive due to bad foreign policy principles.
Trump goes on to outline five (5) shortcomings plaguing the current state of American foreign policy:
1.Resources – Trump focuses on America’s solvency and economic state, which appears to be heading towards collapse. The US has become overextended in all aspects leading to a weakened nation that is unable to fix its aging infrastructure.
2.Fair Share – Trump continued his attack on the notion of unequal distribution of costs amongst America’s allies when it comes to defense. He brought up the fact that only a few of America’s NATO partners are adhering to the minimum requirements per the alliance’s charter while the US is carrying the preponderance of costs for defense. Trump plans to end this problem by either having these nations pay their fair share or exclude them from the American defense umbrella.
3.Reliability – Trump accused the Obama administration of not being a dependable partner to America’s historical allies such as Israel and Egypt. Trump believes the fickleness in American foreign policies has left both allies and enemies dumbfounded.
4.Respect – Due to the actions of the US or lack thereof in some cases, ally and foe alike do not respect the US anymore, according to Trump. In order to make his point, Trump alluded to the two recent trips President Obama took (Cuba and Saudi Arabia) and where there were no foreign leaders present to greet him.
5.Lack of Direction/Clarity – Finally, Trump points to the lack of vision for American foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. This lack of clarity has led to quagmires in areas where America should not have been involved. While alluding to the fact that his administration will not be isolationist, he points out that this legacy of intervention has led to disarray and tragedy for everyone.
The Trump Doctrine
While “America First” appears to be the theme of Donald Trump’s entire campaign, he has managed to bring it into the foreign affairs realm as well. Trump is creating a foreign policy that is almost reminiscent of a distant past, where nationalism trumped (no pun intended) globalism. Trump claims he will reorient American foreign policy by focusing on imminent and long-term threats. Donald Trump plans to:
- Eliminate the most looming threat to US national security; ISIS and extremism. He plans to work with regional nations to help eliminate the scourge that threatens Europe, the Middle East, and America.
- Focus on rebuilding the military to be able to withstand the expanding capabilities of nations such as Russia and China.
- Concetrate on policies that are a function of American interests. Trump wants a foreign policy that is more centered on Realpolitik than the current Neoliberalism approach.
- Even though the US appears to be butting heads with Russia and China, Trump thinks the US can coexist with both nations. While being cognizant of their differences with the US, Trump believes rivalry is not the only option. He views cordial relations based on shared interests and fears are key. China will be Trump’s main focus; he believes the Chinese are the key to a prosperous future. While they have taken advantage of America, according to Trump, their behaviors can be rectified if dealt with from a position of strength.
- Upon becoming president, Trump will call a NATO summit and an Asian summit. The intention is to update the objectives of the alliances threatening today’s world as well as rebalance financial commitments with America’s allies in Europe and Asia.
How is it Different
Trump’s doctrine is looking to hearken back to an era where America’s foreign policy was more nationalistic in nature than globalist. Perhaps the largest difference that can be observed is that when the US gets involved abroad its intent and how it is pertinent to its interests will be well known, thus laying out a clear set of objectives for Americans. The current approach of American foreign policy always tends to have some sort of corporate interest cloaked beneath the justification of humanitarian intervention or nation building. Americans have grown weary of this and do not see any benefit in this approach. Instead the inveterate approach creates more enemies and results in tremendous costs for the American public. Trump promises to change this by focusing his foreign policy on American interests solely. This will be a deviation from the past. In a sense, he is altering the definition of superpower. The long held belief is that as a superpower, nations would have additional responsibility to the international community by being more involved. This type of archaic thinking, according to Trump, is what has gotten the US into quagmires, endless spending, and loss of prestige. In its place, Trump wants a strong US that watches out for its interests and does not intervene in anything that does not pertain to that.
As with any policy or objective, flaws and shortcomings exist. With the Trump Doctrine, there are few points that Trump appears to have omitted or will need to address.
- While Trump is echoing the frustration of most Americans with respect to the unequal distribution of costs for defense between the US and its allies, Trump appears to neglect the fact that these treaties were not dictated to the US by these nations but in most cases crafted by the US. While the US does pay for the majority of costs, these expenditures are the price the US pays in terms of securing allies, land bases, air space rights, etc. as well as opening foreign markets to American corporations. It doesn’t behoove any nation to just provide free defense or give away aid. The US benefits as well in such agreements. If not economically, it is imperative to the US geopolitical calculus to have such nations on their side.
- While Trump continues to contend that the US military has gotten weaker, this is not necessarily true. Yes, military spending is reducing but this comes at the heels of it exponentially exploding in the past decade. Simultaneously, technology has greatly improved, thus changing how America fights its wars. The US military is undergoing a philosophical shift to become autonomous by relying more on aerial, ground, and aquatic drones to fight and gather intelligence, hence its reduction in size. A 21st-century military will need to be lean, autonomous and technology adept.
- When Trump accuses China of taking advantage of its relation with the US through devaluation of currency, he is right but he also ignores similar methods employed by the US. Either Trump is neglecting or uninformed about the current global currency war ongoing between nations. China devalues its currency to boosts its exports because the US devalues its currency as well. The US devaluation takes place through quantitative easing (QE) and interest rate reduction. With the US retaining the major reserve currency status, China and other nations have invested heavily in the US dollar. Through QE, the US has devalued its currency by mass printing, which helps the US reduce its debt burden to China.
- A major omission from Trump’s speech was the Afghan war. Donald Trump did not discuss the longest war in American history. He has broached the subject before with the idea of maintaining the current contingent of 10,000 troops almost indefinitely until the situation is pacified but he never discusses how. The current situation in Afghanistan epitomizes the true definition of a quagmire. Despite employing an Iraqi-style surge to no avail, the US finds itself lost in Afghanistan with no clear objectives. The Taliban are gaining ground and popularity as each day goes by while the corrupt Afghan government continues to fight internally over money and power. If elected, the Afghan War will pose a major headache for Trump since no solution really exists aside from a full withdrawal.
In order to further promote his credential as a presidential candidate, Donald Trump gave a foreign policy speech outlining his objective and position. Demonstrating a break from the past, Trump plans to take a more nationalistic tone in his vision for America. Citing the failures of the past 25 years of American foreign policy, Trump emphasized how his approach will scrutinize everything before an action is taken and only proceed with actions for the protection of Americans, not other entities be they allies or corporations. While his policy demonstrates inconsistencies and flaws, overall it appears to be a reset in how America will do business abroad.
Poll Shows Trump’s Israel Policy Is Opposed Even by Republicans
On Monday, November 18th, Reuters headlined “U.S. backs Israel on settlements, angering Palestinians and clouding peace process” and reported that, “The United States on Monday effectively backed Israel’s right to build Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank by abandoning its four-decade-old position that they were ‘inconsistent with international law,’ a stance that may make Israeli-Palestinian peace even more elusive.” This article made clear that, of all entities Reuters could contact about the matter, only U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo thought that these illegal settlements are legal, and even Pompeo was offering no other reason than that “‘The establishment of Israeli civilian settlements is not, per se, inconsistent with international law,’ Pompeo told reporters at the State Department, reversing a formal legal position taken by the United States under Carter in 1978.” It was merely his dictat, as authority for this major U.S. policy-change.
One poll was recently taken of Americans on the matter. It was done by Scarborough Research, a joint venture by The Nielsen Company and Arbitron, and its sample size was unusually large for such a poll and employed rigorous sampling techniques. Thus, its findings should be considered to be close to the reality. Here is a summary of that poll’s methodology and findings. [I add my explanations in brackets].
The survey was carried out September 12 – October 9, 2018 online from a nationally representative sample of Nielsen Scarborough’s probability-based panel, originally recruited by mail and telephone using a random sample of adults provided by Survey Sampling International. The national sample was 2,352.
Q57. As you may know, the United States has been acting as a mediator between the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority, with the aim of reaching an agreement in the IsraeliPalestinian conflict. Whether or not these efforts succeed, there is a question about what kind of future for Israel and the Palestinians the U.S. should be supporting over the long term, and many analysts feel that time is running out for some options. Here are four possible approaches that are frequently discussed. Please select the one you think the U.S. should support.
Rep Dem Ind Total
1. A two-state solution: Israel and a Palestinian state side by side. The Palestinian state would be established on the territories that Israel has occupied since 1967. 24% 48% 31% 36% [That’s 24% “Rep”; 48% “Dem”; 31% “Ind”; 36% “Total.”]
2. A one-state solution: A single democratic state in which both Jews and Arabs are full and equal citizens, covering all of what is now Israel and the Palestinian Territories. 33% 36% 38% 35%
3. Annexation without equal citizenship: Israel would annex the Palestinian territories, but keep a majority-Jewish state in the expanded territories by restricting citizenship rights of Palestinians. 14% 3% 4% 8%
4. Maintain the occupation of both the territories Israel has captured in 1967 and the Palestinians inhabiting them indefinitely. 18% 5% 13% 11%
Refused 11% 8% 14% 10%
[71% support either a two-state or a one-state solution (a sort of democratic solution). 19% support either “Annexation without equal citizenship” or Israel’s permanent militarily imposed “occupation of both the territories (West Bank and Gaza).” On this question, only 19% support Trump’s Israel policy, but 25% of Republicans do. However, 67% of Republicans don’t.]
One of the issues of tension between the United States and Israel has been its construction of Israeli settlements in the territories occupied by Israel in the 1967 war. These settlements are considered illegal by most of the international community and have been opposed by every U.S. administration, both Republican and Democratic. The Israeli government has continued to build settlements. … How do you believe the U.S. should react to new settlements?
1. Do nothing: 38% 17% 33% 28%
2. Verbally criticize: 30% 22% 27% 26%
3. Economic sanctions: 17% 41% 22% 17%
4. More serious action: 9% 15% 11% 12%
[Trump’s “Do nothing” is supported by 28% of American voters. That even includes only 38% of Republicans. 56% of Republicans want some type of at least criticism against Israel.]
Consequently: Trump has now gone far out onto a far-right limb here in his policies toward the state of Israel and its dictatorship over Palestinians (the people who are the descendants of what were the vast majority of Israel’s population until the ethnic cleansing that slaughtered and displaced them).
The Intellectual Doomsday Clock: 30 Seconds to Midnight?
As someone who has dedicated his entire professional career to higher education, to engaging young minds and striving to advance new thinking across a whole host of critically important global issues, it is with great sadness that I write this article. Not only do all of the scientific surveys point to a coming calamity, my own career provides extensive anecdotal confirmation of the sad reality that we are, as a human society, pushing ourselves down into an intellectual abyss from which we might not be able to emerge. Perhaps most disturbing of all, this pushing momentum is not done by accident. Rather, most of society today seems hell-bent on orgiastically rejoicing in our diminishing skills and our dismissal of ‘smartness.’ Refined thinking, nuanced analysis, and subtle reasoning are now the supposed domain of out-of-touch elite, of people who do not know about reality and are therefore happily removed from the debate/discussion stage. This is not the same kind of anti-elitism we have seen in decades past. This is not simply a fight between the benefits of ‘book learning’ versus ‘experiential wisdom.’ This is more about total war being waged against the intellectual process itself with adjacent side-battles against research, open-mindedness, and scientific thinking. It is not about the quality of the journey of intellectual engagement. It is about the attempt to annihilate discussion in total, surrounding ourselves with our own anti-intellectual camps of sycophantic chatter amounting to nothing. It is not about inquiry leading to epiphany. It is about the biased construction of self-affirmation. We are a society of self-delusional dullards. May this be a not-so-subtle early warning to stop our own dumb and dumber destruction.
The above chart is fairly self-explanatory. The chief aspect to focus on is how most Democrats will actually use this as supposed ‘proof’ of their open-mindedness and ability to think more independently, far more so than the other two representative groups covering most of society in America. While I can grant it is horrifically appalling to see percentages amongst Republicans to go all the way to 92% and even “independents” proving they are not so independent at all by going up to 4/5 of their numbers, the surveys still show one out of every 2 democrats, slightly more than that actually, are in the exact same boat as the other members of society. Why does this matter? It matters because on one very crucial aspect this chart explains the secret ingredient that currently powers the base rationalization and self-justification most people use to fuel their purposeful refusal to seek out alternative arguments, embrace people with differing viewpoints, and understand the crucial humility needed in the world of politics and social order, that being there are very few, if any, questions that have one single undebatable answer that should rationally end all further debate. When you can reject all of these things, it allows you to be content with rejecting even the search for multiple sources, the comparative analysis crucial to any real truth-finding, and the rational thinking that creates true deep thought and nuanced intellectualism. The rejection of the impartiality of news sources as an entity de facto turns into behavior that rejects the need to be discerning about sources overall. If the sources are all tainted, then why do we need them at all? All we need is our own thinking, backed of course by the resident echo chambers we create by surrounding ourselves only with like-minded people. As long as the people I spend most of my time with (and that is increasingly becoming a measure based on ‘virtual exposure’ rather than ‘face-to-face living engagement’) agree with me, why do I need to care about other fools with different opinions?
The above chart clusters Republican (red) and Democrat (blue) representatives on a spectrum of ideology (defined by how often they vote with the rest of their party) then links opposite party members according to their votes together. The links grow larger and darker the more often representatives vote across party lines. In this case, that symbolizes the positive representation of independent thinking and the ability to make decisions NOT according to knee-jerk party lines or blind ideological allegiance. The graphs’ evolution over time is simply remarkable in that not only does the prevalence of cross-party line votes diminish radically over the decades, the behavior by 2011 de facto evaporates while adhering staunchly to party ideology. Exclusionary thinking becomes intensely concentrated and exclusive. It is also disappointing to note that this fascinating study ended in 2011: one year before the second term of President Barack Obama and fully five years before the controversial first term of President Donald Trump. It is not scientifically radical to say the ideological tendencies in American partisanship have only worsened since that 2011 end-of-study date. In fact, heading into 2020, most political discussions in America no longer even include the possibility of any cross-party thinking, let alone behavior. The idea itself is dismissed as being symbolic NOT of independent thinking but of social betrayal that should be shunned and punished.
This final chart is the cherry on top of the stupid sundae. It shows the clear and inevitable path that global IQ is taking from 1950 all the way to 2110. Some may say that a decline from an average of 92 to a new average of 84 is not much given it is covering 160 years. Some might even be motivated to invoke the old “Malthusian Dilemma” to criticize the data, pointing out that such long-term extrapolations are only based on current trends remaining immutable and cannot, therefore, take into account what future counter-measures might be taken by society to right the wrong indicators. I would like to be a member of the Malthusian camp, quite honestly. In its own way, this article is an effort to kick-start those supposed Malthusian strategies, bringing future resolutions to our ‘stupid problem’ sooner to the forefront rather than later. But all of this is wishful thinking. It is not hard science. My hopes, in fact, are based on the opposite of what the data shows, what society currently rejoices in, and what so many individual people profess as being an advancement in ‘popular intelligence.’ As long as our global society, led most decidedly by the most powerful and influential country on earth, continues to revel in anti-intellectualism as proof of its own grassroots intelligence, as long as people rationalize away critical reasoning and analytical thinking as just so much elite ivory tower snobbery, then the only path we craft for ourselves as a society is one of blissful ignorance, confrontational delusion, and self-righteous obliviousness. The only society to emerge from this path is a dead society. A society of stagnation and regression. The intellectual doomsday clock is at 30 seconds to midnight. The ability to shift the ticking second hand backwards, back to enlightenment and dynamic knowledge engagement, may already be gone. May the Malthusian Army appear soon.
U.S.-Turkey relations: From close friendship to conflict of interests
Relations between the U.S. Turkey have strained since the failed July 2016 coup in Turkey. Now, the most important reasons for the tension is Washington’s strong opposition to Turkey’s plan to buy S-400 missile system from Russia and Turkish military invasion into northern Syria.
Although Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to the U.S. on November 13 was intended to resolve the two countries’ disputes and open a new horizon in economic and trade relations, differences still remain.
Though after the meeting at the White House, Trump made some pledges, including increasing trade ties to $100 billion, it takes a long time to fulfill these promises.
Contrary to such pledges, the Pentagon announced that it had replaced all F-35 fighter parts made by Turkey.
While the Turkish and U.S. leaders were meeting, F-35 production program executive Lt. Gen. Eric Fick said at a congressional hearing that Turkey would be completely phased out until March.
At the moment the U.S. has narrowed the number of parts down from 1,000 to 12.
Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Ellen Lord affirmed to Rep. Donald Norcross, D-N.J., that as of Wednesday, Turkey’s exit from the program was not expected to cause any F-35 production delays.
The U.S. government believes Ankara’s move to buy S-400 missile system from Russia is not in line with NATO policies. Washington also sees Turkey’s decision as a threat to U.S. F-35 fighters. However, Ankara has announced that it will go ahead with its decision to buy the missile system.
Erdogan said it is not a right policy to ask Ankara to deprive itself of the Russian S-400 missile defense system.
Erdogan’s remarks came in response to some reports that Trump had requested Turkey to cancel the purchase of S-400 system, a defense system that has been deployed in some parts of Turkey since July 2019.
But after Trump and Erdogan’s meeting, the Turkish president claimed that the U.S. president had a positive view on buying the missile system.
Though Trump may seek to strike a deal with Erdogan on the S-400 missile system and F-35 fighter aircraft, based on his own businessmen approach, Ankara’s military intervention in northern Syria and its insistence on buying the S-400 system are at odds with Washington. For this reason, the House of Representatives has passed two resolutions against Turkey.
On October 30, the House approved a resolution against Turkey recognizing the Ottoman massacre of Armenians in 1915. 305 representatives voted in favor of the resolution, with only three opposing it. It also passed another resolution calling on Trump to impose sanctions on Turkey over military operations in northern Syria. The resolution was also adopted by 403 votes in favor and 16 against, a move that rose Turkey’s anger.
After Erdogan’s meeting with Trump, attended by some Congress representatives, senior Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee vetoed the resolution recognizing the massacre of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire.
Earlier, Senate Majority Leader Robert Menendez had called for the resolution to be approved. Lindsey Graham noted that he had listened to Erdogan’s speech at the White House and criticized a House resolution that recognized the Armenian genocide.
Menendez argued that “U.S. policy must be unanimous and honest in the face of human rights violations, crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing, and genocide” and sent it to the Senate for approval.
There is a difference between the White House and Congress in how to deal with Turkey. Also, there is a difference between Republicans and Democrats despite Trump’s promises to Erdogan.
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