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Indian effort to outsmart China, issues visa to Uyghur nationals

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In a way to showcase its regional super power status as the only economic giant of South Asia against all weak and failing nations around, including its arch nuclear rival Pakistan, India has made an effort to outsmart Asian super power China in a flash fashion by a visa action that would offend Beijing. New Delhi has issued visas to Chinese Uyghur nationals (Muslims) to visit India whom Beijing considers as ‘terrorists’ for seeking freedoms, in protest against China’s defense at UN of Masood Azhar, a supposed terrorist in Indian state list.

In a move that is certain to rile China, India has issued visas to at least four Uyghur nationals—all of them deemed dissidents and at least one ‘a terrorist’ by Beijing—to meet the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama in Dharamsala, next week. The Indian move comes against the immediate backdrop of China putting a ‘technical hold’ on India’s efforts to get Pakistan-based Islamist militant leader Maulana Masood Azhar designated a terrorist by the United Nations (UN) last month.

The matter of fact is New Delhi is wary of the all-weather friendship between China and India’s arch rival Pakistan with which it has fought four wars, three of them over the Himalayan region of Kashmir, that both countries claim in full and administer in parts. Beijing is wary of India’s warming relations with the USA by promoting the Asia Pivot agenda of President Obama targeting both China and Russia, and the Washington’s efforts to draw New Delhi into future defense architecture of the Asian Pacific region.

Already, the Indian government is upset about Chinese plans to build a $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor announced last April making India, eager to see a weak and destabilized Pakistan, go nervous as China is making a ‘terrorist Pakistan’ strong. China shares a part of Kashmir that was “gifted” by Pakistan and in turn China assists Islamabad with economic projects. The corridor, a network of roads, railways and pipelines, will start in Kashgar in the troubled Chinese Xinjiang province and run through Pakistan-administered Kashmir before ending in Karachi.

India accuses Pakistan of sheltering ‘Islamist militants’ like Masood Azhar and New Delhi suspects that the ‘technical hold’ or block put on designating Azhar a ‘terrorist’ by the UN was done by China at Pakistan’s behest. Azhar’s Jaish-e-Mohammed militant group is blamed by for the 2 January ‘attack’ on the Pathankot airbase in Punjab, though it appears to be a purely Indian effort to demonize Islamabad and gain surplus help from USA.

India has raised the issues with China, but with seemingly very little effect. The Tibetan spiritual leader is to receive Isa and other Uyghur leaders in Dharamsala, the seat of the Tibetan government in exile in India. As China repeatedly justifies blocking New Delhi’s proposal at the UN to designate Pakistan-based Masood Azhar a terrorist, India has angered Beijing by granting visa to a prominent Chinese dissident leader it accuses of being a ‘terrorist’.

China has been battling Uyghur ‘Islamic extremism’ in the Xinjiang province since the 1990s. On its part, China has long been suspicious of India granting asylum and continuous support to the Dalai Lama, who fled Tibet in 1959 following a failed uprising. The India-China war of 1962 was sparked by Chinese anger towards India following the grant of asylum to the Tibetan spiritual leader. China has protested against the Dalai Lama’s activities in India but New Delhi says that it regards the Tibetan spiritual leader as an honored guest and does not encourage any ‘political activity’ by the Dalai Lama “that could affect relations” between India and China.

Dolkun Isa has been a German citizen since 2006, and has been in the forefront of the movement for democracy, often speaking out against the human rights abuse by Chinese authorities. He is the chairman of the World Uyghur Congress.

The Uyghurs are the largest Turkic ethnic group living in Xinjiang. Isa has denied the Chinese charges that declare him as a terrorist. According to Dolkun Isa, chairman of the executive committee of the World Uyghur Congress (WUC) and the one branded as a ‘terrorist’ by China, India has kindly issued a “visa to four of us.” This was separately confirmed by a high official familiar with developments in New Delhi. Dolkun Isa is a Germany-based Uyghur activist. China accuses him of terror activities in the remote Xinjiang region where there is frequent violence between the local Uyghur population and government forces. Isa, who hails from the restive Chinese Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region of China, added on the phone from Germany that the delegation was travelling to India for a conference which was to be addressed by the Dalai Lama, who is viewed by China as a “violent separatist.”

Isa told the media said he had an electronic visa to come to India next week for a pro-democracy conference to be held in Dharamsala, which the Dalai Lama is also expected to attend. “I haven’t decided yet on whether to come to India.. The Chinese government is not happy, India should guarantee my security and free movement”, he said.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has referred to an Interpol red corner notice against Isa and said: “Bringing him to justice is a due obligation of relevant countries.” Isa said: “China has put me on Interpol list since 1997. Most countries have just ignored it. India is a democracy. I don’t think I’ll be arrested but I don’t want any difficulties either.” Isa was given asylum in Germany in the 1990s.

According to Isa, the conference he and others are to attend will start on 28 April. “But I still have to make up my mind about coming to India,” Isa said, adding this was because of an Interpol Red Corner notice against him. A Red Corner notice means an international alert against a person “to seek the location and arrest…with a view to extradition or similar lawful action”, according to the Interpol website. Isa said his caution stemmed from his detention in Seoul in 2009 at the instance of China due to the Red Corner notice. “I was sent back to Germany after three days,” he said, adding that he became a German citizen in 2006 after fleeing China in 1997, following repeated prison terms for his alleged ‘activism’.

India has been home to the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama, and the capital of the Tibetan government-in-exile. India has upped the ante with China by issuing visas to World Uyghur Congress leader Dolkun Isa and three others, and by allowing them to visit India for a conference in Dharamsala

Though the plan to allow the conference to be held with the Chinese dissidents was taken months before China’s refusal in the UN, this could be PM Narendra Modi’s muscular foreign policy in action. Although much has been made of the new aggressive foreign policy of the NDA government, the Prime Minister’s record in external relations so far has been good. He has shown no aggression, and has carried on the UPA policy, albeit with much more vigor and determination.

Not only RSS-BJP duo but even Congress party also enjoys the emerging duel. They want India to act as a strong power, notwithstanding the fact that New Delhi lacks both China’s economic clout and its defense, diplomatic capabilities. Many hawks in the Indian establishment have welcomed the government’s move. “China has for a long time got away scot-free – whether it is claiming Arunachal as its own, or the Masood Azhar case, where China twice bailed out Pakistan at the UN. If India continues to take all this then it creates the impression that China is strong, while we (India) swallow everything it throws at us,” said Cabinet Secretary Chandra, who was also India’s ambassador in Washington. He thinks that India should not be seen as docile towards China.

Whether Dolkun Isa eventually comes to India for the conference, or if he sends his colleagues instead is not the point. Beijing is angry with India’s move to grant them visas, thereby directly opposing the Chinese views.

In recent days, India has raised the issue of China’s stand on Masood Azhar at the highest levels. Having found no response, foreign minister Sushma Swaraj and defence minister Manohar Parrikar took it up directly with the Chinese leadership this week. “India does not consider Uyghurs terrorists,” said Kanwal Sibal, former foreign secretary, adding that he “would personally applaud the Indian government for its move” to grant visas to the Uyghur delegation. “If China views certain Uyghurs as ‘terrorists’, then that’s between them and China,” he said, pointing out that China had made a similar argument in Masood Azhar’s case. “China is not sensitive to our concerns on terrorism,” he said.

China stresses its right to defend its foreign policy and to work against Indo US pivot in Asia.

India has been successful against Pakistan and Kashmir, but continuously failing against formidable China with veto handle. The brief border war between India and China – when the PLA troops rolled into Arunachal as an ill prepared Indian army beat a hasty retreat, left a psychological blow on India. Suspicion of China is pervasive in the Indian establishment. The good news is that despite the irritants, both countries are pragmatic enough to ensure that the situation does not get out of hand. As officials on both sides keep pointing out that the border between the two countries continues to be peaceful, not a shot has been fired here.

Maybe another cold war is in the making in Asia which may have repercussion in other regions in Asian continent. Meanwhile, President Pranab Mukherjee is slated to visit China at the end of May. Hopefully, by then the two sides will get over this latest blip. The initial euphoria of improved ties between the two Asian giants, following President Xi Jinping’s visit to India and Prime Minister Modi’s subsequent return trip to China, will fade quickly and the relations will continue to be lukewarm at best.

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East Asia

The West, Sinophobia and Cooperation

Irfan Khan

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Interestingly, populace they are inhabitant of whether West or East pole share having almost common issues like weak productivity growth, proliferation of sophisticated war weapons and climate dangers; however, except for a few issues which, in particular, people of West considers most panic and hazardous. Policy-makers of the West are indulging themselves with a narrative that China’s rise would threaten capitalist economic model and the very survival of the West liberal democracy. Is it so?

Not at all. What must be ponder here is the fact that international capitalists model has stopped functioning, which have witnessed 2008 financial crisis. The leading investors and tycoons, unfortunately, have not been maintaining a steady balance between profitability and investments: profits are becoming increasing while no apparent increase in investments has been recording. Its consequential effects are lowering trends in productivity across the globe; which, in response, has been adversely affecting the prosperity of people across the globe. Establishment and corporate-based politics put the nations in a competition with each-other, that affect masses; as it is underpinned by observing myriad portion of budgets are going into military weapons.

British colonial hegemony culture, and US-led conflicts since last few decades, morphed world into most devastating state, perhaps. In this scenario, China’s rise seeds a hope to the indigent and penurious economies, which the West is fury of.

The current dispute between the US and China in terms of trade and technology, and if European take side, would morphed to a more dramatic state; where the health of the global economy will likely to be damaged. It is safe to say and notwithstanding predictable that this  trade would be converted to a new hottest-cold war, which may force the emerging multipolar world to split into financial bipolar form.

How long will this bubble not burst? It will be likely to head the world towards a global conflict.

However, here’s one good news or perhaps token. West-Policy makers, instead of spreading Sinophobia, should assure that they can be living comfortably with China. It is because, so far so good, China has been depicting a cooperation and advancement, irrespective of humanity, ethnicity and religion. What’s more the West propaganda that China is appearing as geopolitical actor is equivocal; because it never influences and impose their culture on any nation.

Embracing a different economic model, China, is plausibly on a runner-up position to the US and experts claimed it will surpass the USin the next decade. Whether it’s 5G tech. Or leading status of green energy, or ultra-scales exports or its leading developments for the nations having indigent economies are hallmark achievements in recent history. The US and the West should, I propose, consider China’s rise a piece of cake, and welcome its come out while securing its interests under the umbrella of cooperation. This logic, while posing no threat, seems to be long term functional.

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Beyond China-U.S. trade and where is its outlet?

Wang Li

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Since China-U.S. trade war started in the Mid-2018, it has lasted for more than 14 months. From the beginning, the World Bank and the IMF have taken the position that the trade conflict America has trigged will serve no country’s economic progress and their action is patently wrong. Since then, China has at several occasions showed its good-will and sincerity including purchase of the products from the U.S. and the consensus reached between the two heads of state at the summits in Argentina and Japan, during which both parties agreed to move towards dropping all of the additional tariffs introduced during the dispute, and reach a comprehensive agreement that is fair and beneficial to the two sides. Yet, there is still no insurance of the end of trade war between the two largest economies of the world.

Now comes a new possibility that from October 10-11, a senior trade delegation from China, headed by Vice Premier Liu He, is scheduled to meet their American counterparts in Washington DC, led by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. Yet, the trade talks also come at a precarious time in Trump’s decision to reduce the number of U.S. forces in the Syrian border areas with Turkey and amid a spiraling impeachment inquiry into his interactions with Ukraine. More than that, the White House has repeatedly used national security as a reason to sanction Chinese companies, and this has been a talking point in U.S. presidential campaign speeches.

As a matter of fact, the Sino-American rivalry, like the German-Britain rivalry one century ago, is as much a clash of two major powers as it is of two systems: the authoritarian and state-protected development of a rising power vs. the liberal, free-market constitutionalism of a ruling power. Therefore, differences in economic system inevitably amplified the salience of the narrowing economic gap, leading the ruling power to feel cheated and the rising power to feel unsatisfied and threatened. By taking the current China-U.S. trade war into consideration, several factors are complicating the upcoming round of talks.

First, the American resentments against the Chinese economy have grown and seemed to be systematic steps to decouple the world’s two largest economies. As American scholar James Rae argued that with a series of steps, ranging from the tariff rollout to restrictions on dealings with major Chinese technology firms and “ordering” American companies to move production out of China, the U.S. has signaled that this is a trade war, indeed a confrontation over the fundamentals of two rival economic models involving at least four economic tools—standard-setting, technology acquisition, financial power, and infrastructure investment.

Second, the U.S. argues that the Chinese story historically resembles the German one in an overall sense and these parallels are not entirely coincidental. China has long admired the German export-led growth model and is skeptical of laissez faire capitalism. The founding statesman of unified Germany has been consistently seen as an icon of a modernized and powerful country since China has taken its own modernization in the later 19th century. Even it is held, though groundless, that after China emerged from the civil turbulence in 1979, it supposedly structured its development banks on the German model, though it supplemented their loans with Western capital. Under state-directed development, China eventually emerged as the world’s largest exporter with enormous market share in the United States, similarly creating economic interdependence while inadvertently laying the foundation for political competition. This is one of the sources of the Thucydides trap” occurred in the United States but rejected by China and in particular President Xi Jin-ping.

In addition, as a result of these strategies, the speed of the catchup is equally alarming to American elites now. For instance, China’s GDP was only 25% of U.S. GDP in 1990 after a decade of reforms, but has since approached American GDP in 2018. On the one hand, China, like previous Germany, is perceived to have undergone a radical and alarming economic modernization that catapulted it into the rank of first-rate power in mere decades. On the other hand, the United States, following the British mentality of the day, holds that the Chinese developmental model is a form of cheating, forced technology transfer and manipulation in finance. In light of this, China has paten reasons to be concerned that the United States has sought to halt its peaceful rise and undermine its economics by restricting trade, technology and capital flows—whether through economic means or direct subversion.

Yet, Trump’s instinct to do something is not entirely unwelcome, and some of his administration’s policies may prove promising. For example, bipartisan legislation like the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act presents an instrument to deal with China’s state-backed purchases of Western intellectual property that is somewhat more surgical than blunt U.S. tariffs. Other challenges, including China’s forced technology transfers, non-tariff barriers, and subsidies to state champions remain, and although they violate WTO rules. It seems to testify some people’s growing concerns that the economic escalation is now moving the trade dispute into the political realm, from where it had formerly been immune. First, the U.S. has already used the dubious frame of national security to make rhetorical demands as well as launch new policy initiatives to punish the Chinese firms. Second, even the issue of human rights has been inserted into the equation as the U.S. has released an export blacklist of companies with business in China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region. Also while President Trump has been quiet enough on the riots in Hong Kong, a commentary on the topic by the Houston NBA franchise has ironically started a new row that could have major implications for the broader relationship. As Rae observed, the consequence is that debating social issues is easily a slippery slope and the intrusion of trade into China’s domestic affairs even crosses highly sensitive issues related to China’s core national interests and sovereignty. It is true that once those red lines are crossed, unraveling a pathway back will be enormously complicated.

It is understandable that China appears more optimistic or even confident in resolving the current trade war. It declared to purchase huge amount of soybeans, pork and other agricultural products from the United States, signaling that such deals will be exempt from additional tariffs imposed on U.S. goods. This is another gesture of goodwill from the Chinese side to further demonstrate its sincerity in ending the trade issues between the two sides. In the span of two days, China and the United States are supposedly to take a series of positive steps in preparation for a new round of trade talks scheduled for this talks in Washington D.C. Although China resolutely opposes any escalation in the trade war, it admits that there are no winners in a trade war, and therefore a constant escalation of tariffs is not the road to a solution. Only by adhering to the principles of equality and mutual respect, and by negotiating with a calm and rational attitude, can the dispute be defused and differences resolved. To that end, it argues for sincerity, patience and practical action needed. On the eve of the new round of talks, the two sides did have taken actions and created favorable conditions for making substantive progress, in line with the expectations of the international community.

True, as a cliché goes, where there’s a will, there’s a way. China has expected a positive result from this round of talks, but the issue is that the United States has already perceived or misperceived China exactly following the path of rising Imperial Germany one century ago. Some observers even hold that Trump’s trade approach is emotionally satisfying but diplomatically disastrous, therefore they fear his confrontational strategy and support a more cooperative economic relationship with China. Yet, in an overall sense, China has been described frequently as a rising power with patent ambition to take advantage of having a state-directed system competing in technology standards, innovation, financial politics, and geo-economics, which force the United States to seek a coordinated response. Given this, that American response should neither be blindly confrontational nor naively cooperative; instead it should be competitive. Sure competition remains the theme of the China-United States relations in the next decades. It is unclear if it takes the scenario of the cold war or the cold peace, but it is clear that the approach America will adopt would be to work with its allies to strengthen rules, set standards, punish Chinese industrial policy and technology theft, invest in research, welcome the world’s best and brightest, and create alternatives to its geo-economic statecraft. It is truly hard to predicate who might be able to play a better hand in this globalized chessboard.

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Five demands, not one less: China’s test of Leadership

Irfan Khan

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There were students, doctors, lawyers, activists; in short people belong to every faction of society, who came out on the streets in a number of tens of thousands in Taipei, Taiwan, marched against “totalitarianism” what they consider China holds in the regime. Yes, it was the recent September 29, Taiwanese citizens packed to the streets for upholding solidarity with Hongkongers.

Plebeian in Hong Kong (HK)—a former British colony—is protesting for the last four months against China authority. The key reason that forced them to do so was China’s authority intervention in the city internal affairs. The episode started since March this year, following an extradition bill issued by the Chief executive of HK on the edict of China. This, however, seems a little to the people outside to HK, but it instead has grim historical facts for Hongkongers. HK-plebeian considered Chief executive of HK—Lam—pro-Beijing, while Mr Xi’s regime as despotic, who has been dreaming unified China. The current legal status of HK is linked to its special status enacted by China-British declaration, 1985. It was this, according to which the city was allotted the status of semi-autonomy with a mini-constitution. While in 1997, HK was taken to handover to China, the administration of China pledged to not intervene in HK internal affairs at least until 1947.

However, China’ s demand from HK’s administration to issue extradition bill for a HK-man who has murdered his girlfriend during visit to Taiwan. HK-plebeian considered it an example of attack by China on its internal system and has now been protesting. At a rally, protestestors contended five demands: the withdrawal of extradition bill, relabeling them as rioters, assurance of universal suffrage to choose chief executive and legislature for the city, and lastly patently investigation for police violence against the demonstrators and activists.

Are there atrocities?

Yes: Various televised recordings shows what has been going on there: They have brutally been shelled, thrown gas, and fired.

China’s view

From the day first, China viewed it the CIA’s plot aiming to stir up people against China Cumminst Party’s rule or a  foreign-led campaign against the regime.

Mark Pinkstone, an Australian journalist with 50 years of experience in Hong Kong, said, “The Basic Law, the constitutional document that supports ‘one country, two systems,’ provides freedoms of expression, speech and religion. Not one of them has been eroded since the handover in 1997. The current demonstrations are living proof of that.”

According to the Human Freedom Index monitored by the Cato Institute, based in Washington  Hong Kong is ranked No 3, trailing only New Zealand and Switzerland. The index ranks 162 countries and autonomous regions based on 79 measures of personal and economic freedom. The US is ranked 17 as measured by the same indicators.

The World Economic Forum published a survey of people from 25 nations who were asked if they thought their own government was heading in the right direction or not. The survey was conducted between October and November of 2016.

China emerged leading the pack, with 90% of its citizens responding that their government was on the right track while only 10% thought not. The US was squarely in the middle, ranked at 13, with 35% of its citizens thinking their government was going in the right direction and 65% disagreeing.

China’s leadership

Once an ideological and internationally solitary state China is now transformed to a most advanced one under the rule of communist party. It made its intriguing appearance on the chessboard of international power, however, still enduring some domestic challenges–HK is one of them. While it claims to work towards various connectivity and cooperation based projects, yet do not have efficacy to let the World its way of leaderships. Its think-tanks are either  do not want to lead or they believe in pragmatic steps rather than bolstering theoretical ideas. Even its media can not counter the west propaganda and what the consequential effects are people around the globe hear much about it from the west. The current HK’s issue is amid the problems which matter more and are the real  tests of China’s leadership.   

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