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Hydrocarbons and the Turkey – Cyprus relations

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By Floros Flouros(*) and Dr. Athanasios Dagoumas

In this study, the importance of HydroCarbon (HxCY) exploration in Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) and most particularly its implication on the involved countries is examined. Moreover, it is well known that Cyprus has been in conflict and confrontation with Turkey during the last decades. It will be argued that the continuation of the HxCY exploration from Cyprus inside its EEZ will strengthen its position with regard to Turkey which means that it will give to the Cyprus Republic a competitive advantage versus Turkey.

The Critical Success Factors (CSF) that affect positively the Cyprus-Turkey relation in the case of HxCY exploration in Cyprus’ EEZ will be identified and then prioritized/ranked by importance/contribution to the examined relation. In addition, a list of export options for the Cypriot government is also considered and it will be investigated whether political or economic/financial factors should be taken into consideration for the choice of such export options.

Framework of analysis

Literature Review

The Eastern Mediterranean region has been facing challenges also related to the energy landscape. Since the economy is foreseen to grow further while at the same time the population of the region is expected to grow from 45.3 mill in 2010 to around 60 mill in 2030, energy demand should also increase significantly over the next years.

On the basis of the Exclusive Economic Law (Law no. 64(I) 2004 amended by 2014 Law), “Cyprus declared its EEZ, the outer limit of which shall not extend beyond 200 nautical miles from the baselines” from which “the breadth of territorial sea is measured in accordance with UNCLOS” [1].

In Table 1 short summary is presented regarding the agreements that Cyprus has concluded so far in the East Mediterranean region with its neighboring countries like Israel, Egypt, and Lebanon but not with Greece, Syria and Turkey and the Palestinian Authority.

Table 1: Agreements between Cyprus and other East Mediterranean countries

Country Date of delimitation agreement/EEZ Remarks
Egypt

March 2003

May 2006

Delimitation Agreement entered into force

Agreement about cross-median line HxCY resources

Lebanon January 2007

Delimitation Agreement entered into force

Not ratified by Lebanon yet. Some difficulties still exist, due to ongoing dispute between Lebanon and Israel about their EEZ settlement

Israel February 2011

Delimitation Agreement entered into force

Even though Israel not signed UNCLOS yet

Greece   Not yet (!)
Syria   Not yet
Turkey   Not yet
The Palestinian Authority   Not yet

In Figure 1, the Maritime Boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean region are presented [2].

Figure 1: Maritime boundaries and Exploration blocks in East Med at end-2012

cyfig1

(Source: Darbouche at al., 2012).

Turkey considers that the Northern part of Cyprus is of geostrategic importance for at least two reasons: it affects Greek-Turkish relations and it is of global geopolitical interest due to the location [3].

Despite Turkey’s recent activities in Cyprus’ EEZ, that are mainly aimed at preventing Cyprus from exercising its sovereign rights in its EEZ, all licensed companies finally “proceed with their exploration programs, in line with the licenses granted by the competent authorities of the Government” [1].

Finally, it is important to identify those Critical Success Factors (CSFs) that affect positively the Cyprus-Turkey relation in the case of HxCY explorations that have started in Cyprus’ EEZ. As indicated in the previous Table 2.l, CSFs are those key variables that have a tremendous impact on how successfully and effectively an organization meets its mission and in the examined case how Cyprus can continue exploration activities in its EEZ leveraging such a success to its relations with Turkey.

The Research Question

Further to the previous analysis, it is now necessary to address the Research Question and then to search for the useful data and information to answer it. The Research Question is considered very crucial even though the least addressed part of the research process [4].

In the current case, the Research Question can be defined as below:

Identify the Critical Success Factors (CSFs) that would affect positively the Cyprus-Turkey relations in the case of Hydrocarbon Exploration in Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Empirical research

  • General
  • The identity of the research which took place is presented as following:
  • Research: Qualitative.
  • Type/Method: Interview (one – to – one and electronic).
  • Type of Interview: Semi structured.
  • Sampling: Purposeful sampling and most particular snowball effect.
  • Size of sample: As mentioned above; the sampling is terminated when no new info is forthcoming.
  • Selection criteria: relevant to the field, highly educated (academic degree and over), ethnicity of Cypriot, Greek, Turkish, other.
  • Period: beginning of May – end of July 2015 (3 months).

Analysis

The results are presented in Figure 2, in which EU and USA are considered as the most influencing actors in such cases, since they have been mentioned by almost all the interviewees. Following, Cyprus and Turkey are those countries that are supposed to affect more Cyprus in its actions related to the HxCy exploration and furthermore in finding choices on how to export any quantities from its territory in the near future.

At the same time, commercial companies like those participating in the license part, exploration activities, etc. are also considered that they play an important role in the final plan. Finally, other players mentioned during the interviews are counties like Israel, Greece, Egypt and the Northern part of Cyprus.

Figure 2: Main Stakeholders involved in the exploration and trading gas in East Med

cyfig2

(Source: Authors, 2015).

Stakeholders as institutions like EU and UN are believed to be important factors that can affect the progress and success of the projects and any exports in the region. Technical and geological issues, like the depth of the sea, the morphology of the surface, whether onshore or offshore facilities are all considered by the responders as critical parameters for the preparation, design and evaluation of projects in the gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean region as per the survey took place during the period May-July 2015.

Figure 3: Critical Success Factors (CSFs)

cyfig3

(Source: Authors, 2015).

Regarding the possible options the Cyprus to export gas, in Table 2 are presented several answers from the responders during the survey:

Table 2: Answers from interviewees regarding better options for Cyprus to export gas

Answer 1 Answer 2 Answer 3 Answer 4 Answer 5 Answer 6
Pipeline to Jordan From netback view: Egypt could give the best ROI/netback. However, there is a risk since climate is not the best. It looks the most reasonable option but not sure if it can be finally done. LNG is not recommended due to small qties. The LNG looks problematic. There is a need for infrastructure. LNG at Vasilikos: it adds power to Cyprus (having the infrastructure at your own land). There is space available at Cyprus. The ideal would be that CY-TR-ISR to cooperate closely.
Pipeline to the Palestinian Administration in the West Bank. From the risk view: the LNG looks preferable, which is not possible to be done (taking into consideration existing amount of gas). CY-Greece pipeline: Does US support it, since it could compete and replace Russian gas? Alternative ways for development needed and the needs for infrastructure that make sense to export the NG. Pipeline to Cyprus due to the distance and geopolitical reasons. LNG or pipeline is a function of qties (need to be high).
Pipeline to the Gaza Strip. If qties 3 tcf or more, then LNG. Thus, taking into consideration existing amount of gas it does not look a choice (and additionally Noble does not have any experience with LNG). Exports to Egypt: yes (+) while Exports to Turkey: neutral (-).

Pipes and LNG are f(qty, market prices).

Export to Greece is not recommended because it would have serious technical problems (deep sea, seismic region, distance, etc) and thus a huge cost

If you want to add value to Turkey, then you decide to pass the pipeline through it. Thus, the question is whether it can go to Greece. Israel-Cyprus-Greece electricity interconnector is a political issue.
Pipeline to Turkey.

Pipeline to Greece: no way. Huge cost, big risk.

Turkey: it could be an option (in theory) but Turkey would increase its power in the region.

Exports to Palestine is not recommended for Israel. Export to Egypt: yes, because of existing unutilized infrastructure and Egypt is looking for NG to support its growth plans. It is feasible. Sisi needs supporters/allies. Depends on negotiations for the solution of the Cyprus problem  

(Source: Authors, 2015).

While energy supply is important for the economic growth of a country, there is a correlation between energy use and GNP. Since GNP is not the only factor “of level of civilization or quality of life in a country”, it is necessary “when planning for energy needs of a nation to consider alternative socioeconomic models, with emphasis on the socioeconomics and not only the economics” [5].

If a solution is not found in the Cyprus problem then it is impossible to see any cooperation with Turkey. Regarding export options for Cyprus, he mentioned that apart from the local market it can be also said that “the preferred monetization option is regional pipelines” and that Egypt “has been identified as the main export target for the project, together with the Cyprus domestic market” [1].

Cyprus mentioned that “Cyprus needs to continue trying to convenience Turkey on the advantages it stands to gain from adopting a policy based on international law and from contributing to the settlement of the Cyprus problem; a settlement that could allow the Turkish Cypriots to share the benefits of Cyprus’ natural resources and wealth [6].

Findings

There have been several cases in which the decision to start and build a project related to the energy (i.e. pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, BTC) was taken based on political and geopolitical parameters and reasons and not economical-financial ones, since the later did not support the continuation of the project [7]. It has been seen an inclination from the state to “use disruption of natural gas supply in order to promote foreign policy goals” which is supporting the idea of political domination when decisions are taken in energy policy of a country [8].

Based on the results of the qualitative research the CSFs that would affect positively the Cyprus-Turkey relation in the case of HxCY in Cyprus’ EEZ can be summarized in terms of importance as following:

  • Most of the responds are related to the political/geopolitical environment as the most important success factor.
  • Stakeholders as institutions like EU and UN are believed to be important factors, also.
  • Geological issues like the depth of the sea, the morphology of the surface
  • Technological issues as whether the facilities are onshore or offshore
  • Commercial and economic issues, related to exploration costs, current and future prices in the Oil and Gas markets, incentives and taxation policy from the government, participation of the government into joint venture schemes with private companies, etc.

A short/medium term approach and a long term one had been considered as following:

Short/Medium term approach: due to the current status of Cyprus’ political relations with its neighbor’s, the liquefaction seems to be the only feasible option for gas exports for the country. Thus, there can be two subsequent options:

  • Develop a joint liquefaction facility with Israel. This would help Cyprus to dispose of enough gas to synergies for its own LNG export projects. In addition, it would be EU’s interest since PCIs are already a reality and it also would assist strengthen EU’s security through diversification of sources. However, such a choice require huge investments while gas prices have been weakened radically during 2015.
  • Participate in a construction scheme to build an export terminal in the Jordanian Free Economic Zone at Aqaba. This would help Jordan to get gas supplies through pipeline and thus serve also local needs.
  • Continue efforts to participate into energy schemes, which to a great extent are “partnerships of an economic nature, can ease tensions, freeze or even terminate conflicts of a political nature” [1].

Long term approach: The regional geopolitical complexity in the Eastern Mediterranean is already affecting the progress in export gas in the area and as soon as regional conflicts are resolved then the pace of development will be increased significantly.

Cyprus needs to “continue trying to convenience Turkey on the advantages it stands to gain from adopting a policy based on international law and from contributing to the settlement of the Cyprus problem”; by this, it could possible for the Turkish Cypriots to “share the benefits of Cyprus’ natural resources and wealth” [6].

Conclusions

Theoretical Findings

Based on the analysis herein, it can be said that any continuation of HxCY Exploration from Cyprus inside its EEZ can strengthen its position with regard to Turkey and this could be supported under conditions like the solidarity of the EU and support from US, the close cooperation with the neighboring counties of Israel and Egypt, the participation of international companies in available business plans in country’s territory and finally the continuation of the efforts of Cyprus towards the Cyprus problem which will eventually allow the Turkish Cypriots to benefit of Cyprus’ natural resources and wealth.

Based on the analysis presented in this study, it has been suggested that the LNG option seems to be one of the most realistic and promising options for Cyprus to cooperate with its neighbor country Israel provided that the state of Israel can relief any concerns about security and sovereignty. Then, the onshore liquefaction at Cyprus would be decided whether it would be related to the existing field of Aphrodite or others to come on stream in the coming years.

The other option for building FLNG in the Mediterranean or Red Sea could alleviate Israel’s fears and provide additional paths to new markets such as Asian avoiding the transportation through the Suez Canal.

Cyprus has decided to explore the possibility of exporting NG discovered in the Aphrodite field to Egypt through an underwater pipeline, while NG from the Aphrodite field will also be brought to mainland Cyprus for power-generation purposes. He also mentioned that the government of Cyprus “does not exclude prospects for energy cooperation with Turkey in the future provided that the Cyprus problem is first settled” which is a pre-condition [5].

Based on the literature and the analysis took place, the decision making for a country whether to proceed with an investment or project in the energy sector might be a combination of several parameters such as political or economic, geographical, historical, social, technological. It is also related to each country, since each one designs and follows its own energy policy and it will have differences from those of other neighbor countries.

Policy Proposals

The recent discoveries of HxCY in the territory of Israel and Cyprus, with a good probability in the future for counties like Egypt, Lebanon and Greece to follow, offer substantial opportunities to further deepen relations between them. Even though current quantities do not seriously affect global correlations, however the power of the closest markets shows the importance of energy as a synergist factor and this is important to be taken under consideration by the governments and authorities in the region.

Greece hardly can substitute Turkey in the planning of Israel and Egypt; however, it can be proved as a reliable partner whose opinion continues to have a casting value in regional affairs. Greece has shown that can achieve tangible results through practical agreements.

Actions that Greece and Cyprus take in pursuit of broader partnerships, initially to start a climate of mutual understanding, and then to design the conditions for foreign investments are deemed good. Without having any given differences in the Eastern Mediterranean region, the main challenge is to turn to normality amid intense pressure on societies and regimes.

Experienced diplomats note that Cyprus need to continue to build regional alliances with Israel and Egypt but at the same time to emphasize the development of its exploration program. During this period, time seem to be working in favor of Cyprus, while the same sources estimate that it is not easy for one company to lease drilling platform to carry out research in an EEZ internationally recognized as belonging to the Republic of Cyprus.

By invoking international law, being on military alert, strengthening strategic alliances with regional players, and harmonizing with the geostrategic interests of the US and EU (as well as the economic interests of large international companies) in the region, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt are taking cautious and systematic steps during a difficult period hoping to find more substantial backing among their allies and partners. Although the research was implemented before the discovery of the Zohr field in Egypt, this development works in favor of deepening the cooperation among Egypt, Cyprus and Greece. Some projects, such as the East-Med pipeline, increase significantly their maturity and possibility to be implemented, as disadvantages over the required gas volumes are surpassed, while they could guarantee considerable financing from the European Commission as a Project of Common Interest (PCI), towards enhancing European energy security and a functioning internal energy market.


(*) Floros Flouros has studied Chemical Engineering at the Aristotle University,  Nottingham Trent University, UK and the University of Peloponnese, Greece.  Floros has held several progressive managerial roles in the chemicals, minerals and polymers industry for the last 17 consecutive years. Email: floros.flouros[at]ntualumni.org.uk

REFERENCES

[1] Himonas, S. 2015. Interview during the Qualitative Research of this subject.

[2] Darbouche, H., El-Katiri, L., Fattouh, B. 2012. East Mediterranean Gas: what kind of a game-changer?. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. NG71.

[3] Murinson, A. (2006). The strategic depth doctrine of Turkish foreign policy. Middle Eastern Studies, 42(6), 945-964.

[4] Haverland, M. 2010. Conceiving and Designing Political Science Research: Perspectives from Europe. European Political Science, 9: 488-494. Doi:10.1057/eps.2010.61.

[5] Sonnino, T. 1977. A National Energy Policy for Israel. Energy, 2: 141-148.

[6] Zodiates, G. 2015. Interview during the Qualitative Research of this subject.

[7] Nourzhanov, K. 2006. Caspian Oil: geopolitical dreams and real issues, Australian Journal of International Affairs, 60: 59-66.

[8] Shaffer, B. 2011. Israel-New natural gas producer in the Mediterranean. Energy Policy, 39: 5379-5387.

First published by Geopolitics of Energy (GoE, March 2016) under the title: “Identification of the Critical Success Factors that affect positively the Cyprus Turkey Relations in the case of the Hydrocarbons Exploration in Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)”. Republished by the authors permission.

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The Nuclear State without Nuclear: Nuclear Energy Tragedy pertaining Indian Regional Development

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India’s national energy policy is heavily dependent on fossil fuel consumption to attain its energy demands; around 70 percent of the energy requirements are overwhelmingly met by coal, where the share of nuclear power is below 3 percent. Coal is essential for baseload in electrification, and the production of steel and significant industries thrive on coal consumption alone. In the year 2020-21, India produced 716 million tons of coal, nearly two times higher compared to 2011-12, when India produced 431 million tons to supply the ever-growing demand for power. Despite such enormous production, India is one of the largest coal importers. Not alone, the coal simultaneously India dependence on oil imports, according to reports, stood at 76 percent, which is predicted to surge up to severe levels by 2040.    

Despite the heavy reliance on fossil fuels and the fact that India maintained its carbon emissions level below (” emissions per capita, total or kWh produced”) the Paris agreement 2015 levels, meticulous analysis reveals that the carbon emission level of India has risen by 200 percent since 1990. Climate change affects the agrarian sector, which makes up about 42 percent of India’s workforce, pushing it under the blade of job cuts if the water scarcity gets severe; it also threatens the inhabitants of hilly areas whose employment is dependent on the mesmeric mountains tourism. The scope of development of any region in this modern world significantly relies on the consumption of power to run factories, lighten up houses, and fast irrigation systems in farms for large quantities of production.   

India’s current electricity distribution has 371.054 GW GRIDs, divided into five regions Northern, Eastern, Western, North Eastern, and Southern; seventeen percent of this electric GRID is exercised by the agriculture sector, where the commercial agencies use 48 percent. With the emerging depletion of fossil fuels, nuclear power adoption, along with other clean energy power sources, is considered one of the priorities of the Indian government.

However, reports depicted that those policies’ effects are not present on the ground, where nuclear energy contributes merely three percent to the total energy production. The nuclear proportion in China’s energy production is four times greater than India’s; India must adapt to the nuclearization of India’s rural area, paving the way for future growth. The recent enclosure of twenty-five-year-old coal plants in India reflects a minor contribution concerning carbon emissions reduction. At the same time, the consequence brought India into the coal crisis in the northern region.

Rural backwardness constitutes the majority due to the low electricity consumption, whose reasons are ample, sometimes due to geographical limitations and atmospheric restrictions, especially in hilly areas. The electric GRID distribution and maintenance could be better, where the electricity surplus is concentrated in a few sectors based in metro cities. During the Covid Preventive lockdown, seventy percent of power consumption drop in rural India has been noticed; this development questions India’s energy policies which heavily relied upon fossil fuels for energy production. Four states, named Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa, and Madhya Pradesh, comprise 550 million tons of coal, equivalent to 75-80 percent of coal consumption. The argument in favor of coal is due to its cost-effectiveness and availability.  

Another reason for low rural development is the GRID-electrification system, being the primary source of power supply in the rural household, reported monthly energy consumption of 39 kWh, half of India’s national energy consumption average, which is a significant obstacle to the adoption of modern technology for overall growth in rural areas. The reason is not alone political but mismanagement of electricity distribution. As the question of this paper addressed, Why Nuclear? Why not other sources of non-Fossil fuels energy?   

Mathematical Evidence  

For example, the number of atoms of Uranium 235 per kilogram is 2.564×1024 releasing the energy per gram is around 2.29×104 kWh. [Dr S.N Ghosal, Nuclear Physics].  Thermal plants produce the same energy after running for 229 hours at the capacity of 1 MW. When one kilogram of coal burns, it generates 8.926 kWh after exhausting the total mass of 2.56×103 kg. The above estimates demonstrate the advantage of using uranium for power generation. 

However, the nuclear economic constraint unrevealed the enormous cost comes alongside Nuclear Power Plant projects, especially the cost of 1000 megawatts generation is around 5500 dollars, whereas natural gas provides the same quantity of energy for under 1000 dollars; the construction durations refrain policymakers to entertain the nuclear reactor as a feasible power generation source where it takes around seven years to complete and 15-16 years to breakeven.

Nuclear dependency globally was now 10 percent, peaked at 17.7 in 1996, and this is the second obstacle for nuclear energy globally. However, India’s view, contrary to the other nations, being the largest reserve of Thorium, gives an upper hand to maximize energy production by establishing thorium reactors which are undergoing the three-stage plan. Besides thorium reactors, SMRs are in consideration, especially the recent development in the USA where private firm Nu Scale advanced to develop the Small Modular Nuclear Reactor with the capacity of generating 50 Megawatts, which is not par to the level of traditional reactors but corresponds to the resilience it could provide electrifying those lands where electric GRIDs yet not connected. The rural area primarily benefits from such development as such modules are self-sustainable, where the reliance will be on water recycling, limiting water misuse.

The case of Jadugoda was an infamous case where Uranium plant radiation contributed to severe health deterioration, highlighted by Kyoto university research. Radiation is one of the critical issues alongside nuclear waste, which hinders nuclear energy’s ability to obtain massive consent, especially in rural areas.

Other Renewable sources talking about Hydropower, India has 18 pressurized heavy water reactors in operation, with another four projects launched totaling 2.8 GW capacity. India 2019 took over Japan, becoming the fifth-largest hydropower producer generating 162.10 TWh from 50 TWH installed capacity. Close to 100 hydropower currents are used, contributing around twelve percent to the total power generation. The procedure of hydropower generation emphasizes water flow tremendously; without the fast running, the water plant will be defunct and fail to produce power. This forces the policymakers to ignore the natural effects on the regions of the water flow is adequate. 

Climate change models are clear about the cascading impacts of global warming trends on the glaciers of the Himalayas, the primary source of water in the region that sustains the drainage network within the mountain chain. The current hydro onslaught in the Himalayas deliberately ignores contentious externalities such as social displacement, ecological impacts, and environmental and technological risks. In the rural areas, if the regions do not have such a large flow of water, it will discourage the policy marker from implementing it even if one state possesses water, it will obstruct the construction of such projects because of shortage of water and possibly drainage hindering to fulfill the critical water needs, especially in the Punjab region.

 Wind energy mechanical power through wind turbines as of 28 February 2021, India installed wind power capacity was 38.789 GW, the world’s fourth largest installed wind power capacity. Like hydropower, nature requires to perform its task where the wind flow determines the total power production. If a region is not naturally gifted, then feasibility is under question.

The last alternative Fossil fuel, which is heavily praised by the young generation, is solar energy. The country currently has 44.3 GW installed capacity as of 31 August 2021, where solar energy has the potential to generate electricity for rural areas and simultaneously reduce Fossil fuels consumption. The New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) expected “the total investment for upgrading to 100 GW solar power capacity cost around $94 billion. The cost-efficiency factor is a plus point of solar energy. However, the pace still needs to catch up in the quest to replace conventional sources of energy.   

The fossil fuels burned by the factories in the urban areas are the primary power contributor supplying power to the rural areas. This system heavily depends on the GRIDs vulnerable to atmospheric shifts such as storms.  

Moreover, even a minor breakdown might defuse the electricity power supply GRIDs for days, if not weeks. To tackle these issues, Portable Nuclear plants could be set up to give the villagers access to electricity without interruption. The reduction of size assists the government official in planning the safety strategy more swiftly simultaneously; cost efficiency is another factor where a policymaker can cut factory expenses.

Figure 1 GRID-level system costs for dispatch able and renewable technologies Materials requirement for various electricity generation technologies (source: US Department of Energy)

Figure 1 deciphers the cost relationship enabling us to comprehend the long-term financial cost when the connection cost among other eco-friendly energy sources is too high compared to fossil fuels. Nuclear energy outperforms all existing energy sources considered eco-friendly in connection cost and balancing cost. This development also illustrates that the factories lean more towards fossil fuels because of the low cost. However, economically speaking, the employment of such industries could be more sustainable in the long term.

The Photovoltaic, Hydro, and onshore alternatives, well-established sources of energy production, are not that reliable, and variation in power generation discourages them from being considered a superior replacement. 

Solar is affordable but unreliable because intermittency issues require storing backup, and the production depends mainly upon the sun, like the wind, for turbine energy. In contrast, coal requires man labor to extract from the mines and ignite it to produce energy if we consider the process in abstraction. The case of nuclear is different nuclear energy do rely on 239 Uranium and 242 Plutonium, in some cases 232 Thorium to attain the level where power could be generated, and uranium, to be precise, is scared in quantity to solve the enormous issue Enrico Fermi already in the 1940s, stated that nuclear reactors operating with ‘fast’ neutron are capable to fission not only the rare isotope U-235 which indicates towards A fast-neutron reactor.

The Covid and Rural development     

During the lockdown, seventy percent of the power consumption drop in rural India has been noticed; this development questions India’s energy policies which heavily relied upon fossil fuels for energy production. The GRID-electrification, the primary source of power supply in the rural household, reported monthly energy consumption of 39 kWh half of India’s national energy consumption average, which is a significant obstacle to the adoption of modern technology for overall growth in rural areas. A significant downfall has been noticed in the employment sector, tabled whether it could replace fossil fuel, which constitutes a significant number in employing rural workers. 

Deloitte’s study of the European nuclear industry suggested that nuclear provides more jobs per TWh of electricity generated than any other clean energy source. According to the report, the nuclear industry sustains more than 1.1 million jobs in the European Union. Aggressive promotion of nuclear energy will impact all other fields, such as education, the health sector, and employment. Running a conventional reactor requires a team who can resolve the complex task; however, if the reactor is small and portable, the operation fixations reduce significantly. 

Providing adequate function training will become the source of employment while reducing fissile fuel dependency. At the same time, nuclear reactors require sophisticated hands to run the function, which could reduce the unemployment created by fossil fuel industries in response to a carbon tax or depletion of fuels, more precisely, a severe rise in fuel prices.    

The Limits    

Although the enormous potential for nuclear energy possesses few areas that are still vulnerable whose exploitation might invite catastrophic such as the illegal transfer of nuclear energy by non-state actors, one of the critical issues India is facing is news of uranium confiscations currently haunts the world that India security vulnerability enabled the private persons to have a hand over fissile materials, the other issue that should be considered is the maintenance of nuclear plants Chornobyl is an excellent example of what extend of potential a nuclear disaster possesses still in several regions in Ukraine radiation exist. [Barry W. Brook, “Why nuclear energy is sustainable and has to be part of the energy mix”].

India needs to accelerate the nuclear problem while strictly abiding by the security norms of the nuclear policy widely accepted as a nuclear safety benchmark. Meltdown, Hazardous nuclear waste and maintenance predominated the circle of nuclear crisis (except France and Sweden, as a significant proportion of electricity generation depends on nuclear plants); currently, SMR is echoing to minimize such externalities; however, the effectiveness of such small module reactors must be scrutinized under tests before it could be considered as a genuine alternative to traditional reactors.

Conclusion   

Nuclear energy is far superior to other fossil fuel energy alternatives. However, the low adaption is one of the critical issues that require tackling by incentivizing the research to develop several small scales portable nuclear reactor modules that stand on the international security parameters and simultaneously ensure a low probability of accidents. The employment prospect from nuclear reactors is enormous, and as the depletion of fossil fuel takes place could become the most employment service-providing sector.

 Two types of reactors are mainly highlighted first is a conventional nuclear reactor, and the second is portable nuclear reactors; government, in the long term, must concentrate on building small-scale reactors so cost efficiency will favor the rural people. Nuclear energy is a multi-sectoral project where the industries and the household will have greater access to electricity, but the complexity of reactor management advances specialization in education. Such problems are vital if India has any dream of total nuclearization.

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Azerbaijan seeks to become the green energy supplier of the EU

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image source: azernews

Recently, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Hungary and Romania signed an agreement to build a strategic partnership regarding green energy.   According to the document of the text, these four countries will be working together to develop a 1,195 kilometer submarine power cable underneath the Black Sea, thus effectively creating an energy transmission corridor from Azerbaijan via Georgia to Romania and Hungary.   For Europe, this is a golden opportunity that must be seized upon.

According to the International Monetary Fund, “Europe’s energy systems face an unprecedented crisis. Supplies of Russian gas—critical for heating, industrial processes and power—have been cut by more than 80 percent this year.  Wholesale prices of electricity and gas have surged as much as 15-fold since early 2021, with severe effects for households and businesses.  The problem could well worsen.” 

For this reason, Europe should switch as soon as possible to green energy supplies, so that they will rely less upon Russian gas and oil in the wake of the Ukraine crisis.   This will enable Europe to be energy independent and to fulfill its energy needs by relying upon better strategic partners, such as Azerbaijan, who are not hostile to Europe’s national security and the West more generally.  

By having this submarine power cable underneath the Black Sea, Azerbaijan can supply not only Hungary and Romania with green energy, but the rest of Europe as well if the project is expanded.   Israel, as a world leader in renewable energy, can also play a role in helping Azerbaijan become the green energy supplier of the EU, as the whole project requires Azerbaijan to obtain increased energy transmission infrastructure.  Israel can help Azerbaijan obtain this energy transmission infrastructure, so that Azerbaijan can become Europe’s green energy supplier.    

According to the Arava Institute of the Environment, “Israel, with its abundant renewable energy potential, in particular wind and solar, has excellent preconditions to embark on the pathway towards a 100% renewable energy system. Accordingly, Israel has already made considerable progress with regard to the development of renewable energy capacities.”   The Israeli government has been pushing hard for a clean Israeli energy sector by 2030.   Thus, Israel has the technical know-how needed to help Azerbaijan obtain the infrastructure that it needs to become the green energy supplier of Europe following the crisis in the Ukraine.

Given the environmental conditions present in Azerbaijan, which has an abundance of access to both solar and wind power, with Israeli technical assistance, Azerbaijan can help green energy be transported through pipelines and tankers throughout all of Europe, thus helping to end the energy crisis in the continent.   In recent years, Europe has sought to shift away from oil and gas towards more sustainable energy.     

With this recent agreement alongside other European policies, these efforts are starting to bear fruits.   In 2021, more than 22% of the gross final energy consumed in Europe came from renewable energy.   However, different parts of Europe have varying levels of success.   For example, Sweden meets 60% of its energy needs via renewable energy, but Hungary only manages to utilize renewable energy between 10% and 15% of the time.    Nevertheless, it is hoped that with this new submarine power cable underneath the Black Sea, these statistics will start to improve across the European Union and this will enable Europe to obtain true energy independence, free of Russian hegemony.  

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Energy Technology Perspectives 2023: Opportunities and emerging risks

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The energy world is at the dawn of a new industrial age – the age of clean energy technology manufacturing – that is creating major new markets and millions of jobs but also raising new risks, prompting countries across the globe to devise industrial strategies to secure their place in the new global energy economy, according to a major new IEA report.

Energy Technology Perspectives 2023, the latest instalment in one of the IEA’s flagship series, serves as the world’s first global guidebook for the clean technology industries of the future. It provides a comprehensive analysis of global manufacturing of clean energy technologies today – such as solar panels, wind turbines, EV batteries, electrolysers for hydrogen and heat pumps – and their supply chains around the world, as well as mapping out how they are likely to evolve as the clean energy transition advances in the years ahead.

The analysis shows the global market for key mass-manufactured clean energy technologies will be worth around USD 650 billion a year by 2030 – more than three times today’s level – if countries worldwide fully implement their announced energy and climate pledges. The related clean energy manufacturing jobs would more than double from 6 million today to nearly 14 million by 2030 – and further rapid industrial and employment growth is expected in the following decades as transitions progress.

At the same time, the current supply chains of clean energy technologies present risks in the form of high geographic concentrations of resource mining and processing as well as technology manufacturing. For technologies like solar panels, wind, EV batteries, electrolysers and heat pumps, the three largest producer countries account for at least 70% of manufacturing capacity for each technology – with China dominant in all of them. Meanwhile, a great deal of the mining for critical minerals is concentrated in a small number of countries. For example, the Democratic Republic of Congo produces over 70% of the world’s cobalt, and just three countries – Australia, Chile and China – account for more than 90% of global lithium production.

The world is already seeing the risks of tight supply chains, which have pushed up clean energy technology prices in recent years, making countries’ clean energy transitions more difficult and costly. Increasing prices for cobalt, lithium and nickel led to the first ever rise in EV battery prices, which jumped by nearly 10% globally in 2022. The cost of wind turbines outside China has also been rising after years of declines, and similar trends can be seen in solar PV.

“The IEA highlighted almost two years ago that a new global energy economy was emerging rapidly. Today, it has become a central pillar of economic strategy and every country needs to identify how it can benefit from the opportunities and navigate the challenges. We’re talking about new clean energy technology markets worth hundreds of billions of dollars as well as millions of new jobs,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “The encouraging news is the global project pipeline for clean energy technology manufacturing is large and growing. If everything announced as of today gets built, the investment flowing into manufacturing clean energy technologies would provide two-thirds of what is needed in a pathway to net zero emissions. The current momentum is moving us closer to meeting our international energy and climate goals – and there is almost certainly more to come.”

“At the same time, the world would benefit from more diversified clean technology supply chains,” Dr Birol added. “As we have seen with Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, when you depend too much on one company, one country or one trade route – you risk paying a heavy price if there is disruption. So, I’m pleased to see many economies around the world competing today to be leaders in the new energy economy and drive an expansion of clean technology manufacturing in the race to net zero. It’s important, though, that this competition is fair – and that there is a healthy degree of international collaboration, since no country is an energy island and energy transitions will be more costly and slow if countries do not work together.”

The report notes that major economies are acting to combine their climate, energy security and industrial policies into broader strategies for their economies. The Inflation Reduction Act in the United States is a clear example of this, but there is also the Fit for 55 package and REPowerEU plan in the European Union, Japan’s Green Transformation programme, and the Production Linked Incentive scheme in India that encourages manufacturing of solar PV and batteries – and China is working to meet and even exceed the goals of its latest Five-Year Plan.

Meanwhile, clean energy project developers and investors are watching closely for the policies that can give them a competitive edge. Relatively short lead times of around 1-3 years on average to bring manufacturing facilities online mean that the project pipeline can expand rapidly in an environment that is conducive to investment. Only 25% of the announced manufacturing projects globally for solar PV are under construction or beginning construction imminently, according to the report. The number is around 35% for EV batteries and less than 10% for electrolysers. Government policies and market developments can have a significant effect on where the rest of these projects end up.

Amid the regional ambitions for scaling up manufacturing, ETP-2023 underscores the important role of international trade in clean energy technology supply chains. It shows that nearly 60% of solar PV modules produced worldwide are traded across borders. Trade is also important for EV batteries and wind turbine components, despite their bulkiness, with China the main net exporter today.

The report also highlights the specific challenges related to the critical minerals needed for many clean energy technologies, noting the long lead times for developing new mines and the need for strong environmental, social and governance standards. Given the uneven geographic distribution of critical mineral resources, international collaboration and strategic partnerships will be crucial for ensuring security of supply.

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