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South Asia

An End without a Beginning

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The correlation witnessed between India and Pakistan in the last six decennium can be described as an endeavour without any mean. Without hesitation both countries are in a domineering posture to defame one another in the attainable opportunity. India’s stances are in a commodious position compared with Pakistan.

This is because India has the better ground reality than Pakistan in terms of economy and democracy without relying on other countries. Due to Pakistan inability to place its Generals – it is suffering and could not make peace with her neighbours particularly with India, without consulting the army. Hence, Pakistan does not have sustainable development; it would not move an inch forward in terms of collective prosperity.

Pakistan in the last six decades utilized all its zenith strengths to depose India for their wrong perceived strategic interest. Pakistan now looks very tired since its expectation would not materialize. Pakistan has flunked to glean any lesson from its erstwhile history, it’s a disadvantage. Every step Pakistan tries to aggravate India, Its back fired on Pakistan. Along with the US, Pakistan budded Mujahedeen to barrage the Soviet acquisition in the Subcontinent during the Cold War, now Pakistan is facing those heats in the form of terrorism on its own soil. The terrorist attack on the military school at Peshawar purged more than 141 children, which would be a late-breaking example of the Pakistan vulnerability. This evinces that more Pakistan takes action on their terrorist they turn their wrath on Pakistan more. This is because; Pakistan can’t dare to go down to the root of terrorism. Pakistan is taking a lot of initiatives in the Baluchistan region but not on Taliban. So is not able to undo the zip between the military, ISI and with religious extremism.

The illustrious and strategic coalition between their military, ISI and religious units are even menacing the pivotal foundation of Pakistan. However, the revelation of Pakistan about this menace would be very minimal. The best example would be the late-breaking India and the Pakistan peace manoeuvre. The Indian Prime’s visiting Pakistan without any disclosure, would be seen as giving more urge on his counterpart Nawaz Sheriff.

Modi’s strategic defiance posturing menace to Nawaz, since he could not evince the equivalent kind of rebalancing with the Indian ruling elite. Modi’s short stay in Lahore can be viewed in different strategic angles. However, even it was taken utterly the Pathankot attack aggregates the trust deficit between both the nations. Shortly India and Pakistan will get the award for the longest standing scuffle from the United Nations (UN). Now the buck stops at the terrorist attack on the Indian naval base at Pathankot, would not allow both countries to move forward with full strength. While Modi was the prime ministerial candidate, he reprimanded the Congress Party’s administration initiatives with Pakistan that both terrorism and peace process cannot budge together. Now Modi has to answer the opposition why he is appropriating steps to move with Pakistan while the cross border terrorism on a continuing mode?

Though Pakistan announced formally that – they would adduce the Pathankot perpetrators to lawfulness would not be nabbed beneficially until they evince on it. Because the 2008 Mumbai attack was lively seen by the whole globe, but still the precise master mind of the attack Hafiz Saied and others are freely organizing rallies and hate speeches against India. Pakistan prevails to be the gazers on them would reinforce India’s negative public opinion against Pakistan. At the same time the factuality of the inquiry process has raised many disbelieves against Pakistan and they are still not able to formally acknowledge the FIR names on the Pathankot linked Perpetrators.

However, the Advisor to Pakistan Prime Minister on foreign affairs Saetaj Aziz’s recent interview to a Indian media gave some hope on this case. Aziz said to India Today editor, “one of the mobile phone numbers linked to the attackers was traced to the terror group’s headquarters in Pakistan’s Bahawalpur” report by The Statesman. This would be the first time a Pakistan official accepted such kind of sensitive matter formally. Now both countries abide to engage at any cost, as described by many scholars would be interesting to look forward. At this stage Pakistan must act on the Mumbai and Pathankot perpetrators to get India’s full cooperation for extending the peace initiative. Otherwise, the pleasant factor would not stay longer.

Pakistan should on board their generals, ISI and their religious leaders towards the peace process with India. Further, Pakistan should accommodate their opposition parties also to get the bipartisan hinge on this would energize Nawaz Sheriff Initiatives. On the other side Modi also should engage with the major opposition parties before moving forward on Pakistan matter. Many scholar writes about the only way forward would be to engage with Pakistan could be accepted as the available policy from the present Indian elite. However, what India intends to gain on this Endeavour is really a question without Pakistan’s commitment on the question on terror. Otherwise the main argument would get strengthened that India was bow to Pakistan’s terror. The last six decades Pakistan uses terrorism against India as their state policy would still concern for India. Now Pakistan must evince to prove it erroneous to her accusers that it has come out of its past.

The media report suggests that the next meeting would take place out of India and Pakistan, which would be a great appeasement for both countries. However, now the ball is on the Pakistan court. Pakistan has to answer for the Mumbai and Pathankot attack case progress. And also Pakistan cannot prolong by saying that they still require more evidence for them to avenge the mastermind of the attacks. This would prove Pakistan’s inability to deal the religious extremists. It would strongly stir the Indian side and reflect in domestic politics as well. If so, this dialogue would not move forward due to the lack of sustainable support, but would further trigger for huge setback than at least for a feel good factor to think of the next stage.

The present convergence of India and Pakistan for peace cooperation seems to be looking positive. However, it seems to be more a beginning without an end. This is not good for both the countries particularly as neighbours. Time is ripe for Pakistan to realize that how for this would go with the failure approach by the trick of hate its own neighbour once both are the children of one mother called Hindustan.

Antony Clement is a Senior Editor (Asia-Pacific), Modern Diplomacy an online journal. He is a researcher in Indian Foreign Policy. He consults on academic development and he is currently working on two books - “Discover your Talents” and “Diplomacy in Tough Times”. His research centres on India’s diplomacy & foreign policy and extends to domestic politics, economic policy, security issues, and international security matters, including India’s relations with the US, the BRICS nations, the EU and Australia.

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South Asia

Answering the CPEC Challenges

Qura tul ain Hafeez

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China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will help sustain the economic growth of China and will highlight the strategic importance of Pakistan. It will offer Pakistan with a chance to broaden the horizon of its economy and enlarge its foreign reserves. However, whilst venturing towards industrialization and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), CPEC in Pakistan faces certain challenges that have so far impeded the industries in realizing their full growth potential. Principal obstructions to investment in this regard are various security and political factors as well as the non-availability of infrastructure and power crises.

The answer to these challenges is that the FDI is very much necessary for raising the value of capital. Eventually, once the high capital value is achieved it will helps in developing infrastructure and for initiating large industries. Thus through Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) the dearth of capital will be lessened to greater extent. In order to set up competitive industries in the globalized world one of the priorities is the accessibility to the productive and high tech transportation for maneuvering of raw materials and finished goods. This is an understood observation that, economic expansion strengthens infrastructure advancement and vis a vis.

The second most important aspect is how far CPEC is beneficial for the Pakistani labors and how the industrial advancement will be creating Jobs through CPEC for Pakistani people? The youth surge is often named as asset and it should be chief concern of the State, because this strength has turned into burden owing to unemployment. In this regard CPEC could offer appropriate interference in the course of employment creation to take in hand the grievances of unemployed youth. The electricity shortage and network of infrastructure further minimizes the on hand base of small industries in Pakistan. The first phase of energy projects in early harvest program of CPEC will be effective in reducing the electricity shortfall. The inexpensive and unremitting power availability is indispensable for stimulating Pakistan’s manufacturing sector. This will increase the economic activities, create jobs and catch the attention of foreign investors to invest in trade zone of Pakistan. Eventually all the project which are part of CPEC, whether they are electricity production projects or infrastructural advancement projects need man power -engineers; civil mechanical, electrical. Along with disciplines of engineering technicians: masons, welders, carpenters, surveyors, steel fixer, machine operators, etc are also required. Moreover not only the labor and technical workforce, there is also a need of professional economists, finance, accounting, management HR and interpreters of Chinese language who will monitor and manage these projects. Thus to sum up the answer to the question that how far CPEC is effective in creating jobs, one can say that  according to the resources and as the above mentioned, CPEC will be generating around two million jobs implicitly or explicitly till 2030.

Moreover, this is also worth noting that if the Pakistan stakeholders are making their living and paying high tax regardless of the Chinese who are investing and they are exempt from taxes. Under such conditions how CPEC will be profitable for Pakistani investors and local industrialists if Chinese are tax exempt and local industries are not? In that case CPEC Special Economic Zones (SEZs) will be a fruitful strategy for promoting trade, employment and economic growth. Consequently to upgrade the industries, through SEZs, one of the intended objectives of the CPEC is to best serve the private sector of Pakistan to strengthen local industries through Free Trade Agreements (FTA). The proclaimed incentives which CPEC promises to offer the local enterprises include the promotion of Pakistan’s industries from accumulating imported parts and components to localized production of parts by utilizing the available resources, offering employment opportunities to the people and encourage bilateral connectivity between various Chinese and Pakistani enterprises. It will also expand trade volume and logistics, business-to-business (B2B) links, two-pronged trade arrangement, regional connectivity and encourage evenhanded trade maturity. Subsequently in order to facilitate the local business sector, Board of Investment (BoI) established “CPEC-SEZ Cell” in February 2017 in order to address the concerns of the stakeholders on the matters related to the CPEC and Special Economic Zones. The prime function of this support cell is to attract, facilitate and promote both local and foreign investment in the country as per Special Economic Zones (Amendment) Act, 2016 of Pakistan.

Furthermore in line with changing global economic structure CPEC will bring trade openness. For that Pakistan has prioritized the establishment of SEZs. So far 41 sites have been identified for SEZs and the Board of Investment (BoI) has mapped out nine exclusive Industrial Zones to be built under the larger umbrella of CPEC. It is also pertinent to mention that the CPEC project is not merely a route that connects Gwadar port with Kashgar but an opportunity for both China and Pakistan to enjoy the fruits of trade openness with Europe, Middle East, South and Central Asia as well. Thus the establishment of SEZs  promises to bring  Trade Openness through a massive socio-economic development  in the country specifically in the areas of energy, trade, agricultural, infrastructural development, connectivity, industries, poverty alleviation, tourism, cooperation between financial institutions and markets, and financial cooperation between Free Trade Zones (FTZs).

Last but not the least the difficulty of capital and capacity insufficiency can be alleviated through joint ventures between Chinese and Pakistani business community under CPEC. It is necessary to enlarge the stakes of domestic industry and protect their interests under CPEC. Pakistani entrepreneurs should be given incentives similar to Chinese investors for investment in the CPEC projects.

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South Asia

Whether Pakistan’s membership in the IAEA Board of Governors is a major diplomatic achievement?

Sonia Naz

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Pakistan has once again been elected a member of the IAEA Board of Governors (BoG) for the next two years on September 20, 2018. The Board of Governors of the IAEA is one of its policy making organs. The BoG not only examines the financial statements, it also makes recommendations for the IAEA budget. It finalizes the membership applications, accepts safeguard agreements and contributes in the safety standard publications. The approval of Director General of the IAEA with the approval of General Conference is also the responsibility of the Board. Pakistan has been chosen 19 times to the Board in the past and has played an important role in the formulation of the agency’s policies and programmes. It also has the honor of chairing the Board thrice in 1962, 1986 and 2010.

A prominent Pakistani nuclear expert Dr. Naeem Salikin his book “Nuclear Pakistan Seeking Security and Stability” writes that Pakistan’s cooperation with the agency has been reciprocal. In other words it not only benefitted from the agency but also Pakistan’s nuclear expertise and its human resources proved to be invaluable contribution to the agency. Pakistani scientists and engineers have contributed to the IAEA work in numerous fields including in the area of nuclear safety and security. It also hosted nuclear safety and security workshops with the cooperation of IAEA on the regional level. Pakistan has been beneficiary of the IAEA assistance and its nuclear establishment is fully committed to increasing this cooperation in various fields ranging from nuclear power development to that of agriculture, medicine and livestock. Pakistan’s Country Program Framework (CPF) 2014-2019 provides assistance in the wide range of areas as nuclear safety and security, nuclear power development, industrial application, human health under the technical cooperation program of the IAEA.

Since the inception of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons it has faced allegations and hostilities which have not been faced by any other nuclear state in the world. Although, the formation of the NSG in 1974 was the result of Indian violation of peaceful use of nuclear material for military purposes but the irony is that now the founders of NSG are advocating India for the membership of NSG. China is the only state which understands that India is not the only country but Pakistan is also capable of producing highly enriched uranium and plutonium for civil and military purposes and it can easily assist developing states in advancing their nuclear infrastructures and technology. All nuclear power plants of Pakistan are under the IAEA safeguards while the US is extending exceptional treatment to India by letting it keep its eight reactors out of IAEA safeguards that are producing fissile material in large quantities, and intentionally ignoring this.

In this regard, Pakistan advocates a non-discriminatory approach towards the non-NPT nuclear weapons states for their entry into the NSG. Nevertheless, it is the prime time for Pakistan to fight its case through the IAEA as it is going to formulate policies of IAEA for future. It should also try to introduce the policies which treat all nuclear states equally because discriminatory behaviors and policies undermine the credibility of the non-proliferation regimes.

In a nutshell, Pakistan has been facing enormous amount of propaganda regarding its nuclear safety and security and the amount of literature projecting Pakistan’s perspective is inadequate and small. Therefore, it’s imperative that Pakistan projects its perspective concerning its nuclear safety and security. Pakistan has been in full compliance with the agency regime for over fifty years now. Pakistan’s cooperative and positive behavior towards the promotion of peaceful uses of nuclear technology and non-proliferation regimes requires equal treatment. Keeping in view the stringent nuclear safety and security record of Pakistan and its advanced nuclear fuel cycle capability, it should be considered eligible to be provided the nuclear fuel cycle services under the IAEA safeguards. Pakistan can make its membership in BOG a major diplomatic achievement by advocating its perspective with full determination.

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South Asia

Can India Balance Between Beijing and Washington?

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On October 10, 2018, a Senior Chinese Diplomat in India underscored the need for New Delhi and Beijing to work jointly, in order to counter the policy of trade protectionism, being promoted by US President, Donald Trump.

It would be pertinent to point out, that US  had imposed tariffs estimated at 200 Billion USD in September 2018, Beijing imposed tariffs on 60 Billion USD of US imports as a retaliatory measure, and US threatened to impose further tariffs. Interestingly, US trade deficit vis-à-vis China reached 34.1 Billion USD for the month of September (in August 2018, it was 31 Billion USD). Critics of Trump point to this increasing trade deficit vis-à-vis China as a reiteration of the fact, that Trump’s economic policies are not working.

Ji Rong, Spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in India said that tariffs will be detrimental for both India and China and given the fact that both are engines of economic growth it is important for both to work together.

The Chinese diplomat’s statement came at an interesting time. US President, Donald Trump on October 2, also referred to India as ‘tariff king’. Even though the India-US strategic relationship has witnessed a significant upswing, yet the US President has repeatedly referred to India imposing high tariffs on US exports to India (specifically Harley Davidson motorcyles).

It also came days after, after India signed a deal with Russia (October 5, 2018) for the purchase of 5 S-400 Air Defence system, during the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Chinese envoy’s statement also came days before India attended the China dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Significantly, India and China also began a joint training programme for Afghan Diplomats on October 15, 2018 (which would last till October 26, 2018).

Trilateral cooperation between India, China and Afghanistan was one of the main thrust areas of the Wuhan Summit, between Chinese President, Xi Jinping, and Indian PM, Narendra Modi, and this is one of the key initiatives in this direction.

There are a number of factors, which have resulted in New Delhi and Beijing seeking to reset their relationship. The first is difference between New Delhi and Washington on economic ties between the former and Iran and Russia. Washington has given mixed signals with regard to granting India exemptions from Countering America Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

US ambiguity on providing waivers to India

While sections of the US establishment, especially Jim Mattis, Defence Secretary and Secretary of State, Michael Pompeo have been fervently backing a waiver to India, there are those who oppose any sort of waiver even to India. NSA John Bolton has been warning US allies like India, that there will be no exemption or waiver from US sanctions targeting Iran’s oil sector. On October 4th, Bolton while briefing the press said:

“This is not the Obama administration … is my message to them (the importers),

Trump himself has not been clear on providing India a waiver, when asked about this issue, he said India would  know soon about the US decision (Trump has the authority to provide a Presidential waiver to India from the deal with Russia). A State Department Spokesperson also stated, that the US was carefully watching S-400 agreement with Russia, as well as India’s decision to import oil from Iran, and such steps were ‘not helpful’. With the US President being excessively transactionalist, it is tough to predict his final decision, and with growing differences between him and Mattis, one of the ardent advocates of waivers for India, it remains to be seen as to which camp will prevail.

US protectionism and New Delhi’s discomfort

Differences between Washington and New Delhi don’t end on the latter’s economic ties with Tehran and Moscow. India has on numerous occasions stated, that while strengthening strategic ties with the US, it was concerned about the Trump administration’s economic policies. This was clearly evident from the Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj’s speech at the SCO Meet (October 12, 2018) held at Dushanbe, Tajikistan where she pitched for an open global trading order. Said Swaraj:

“We have all benefited from globalization. We must further develop our trade and investment cooperation. We support an open, stable international trade regime based on centrality of the World Trade Organization,”

Even if one to look beyond Trump’s unpredictability, there is scope for synergies between New Delhi and Beijing in terms of economic sphere and some crucial connectivity projects.

Economic Opportunities

For long, trade has been skewed in favour of China, and this is a growing concern for India. Trade deficit between India and China has risen from 51.1 Billion USD in 2016-2017 to 62.9 Billion in 2017-2018 (a rise of over 20 percent).

The imposition of US tariffs has opened up opportunities for China importing certain commodities from India. This includes commodities like soybeans and rapeseed meal. In a seminar held at the Indian embassy in Beijing in September 2018, this issue was discussed and one on one meetings between potential importers (China) and sellers (India) was held. India urged China to remove the ban which had imposed on the import of rape meal seeds in 2011.

Connectivity and Afghanistan

Another area where there is immense scope for cooperation between India and China is big ticket connectivity projects. During his India visit, Uzbekistan President, Shavkat Mirziyoyev invited India to participate in a rail project connecting Uzbekistan and Afghanistan.

Afghanistan has welcomed this proposal, saying that this would strengthen cooperation between China and India in Afghanistan. India-China cooperation on this project is very much in sync with the China-India Plus Model proposed by China at the BRICS Summit in July 2018.

India and China can also work jointly for capacity building in Afghanistan. New Delhi has already been involved in providing assistance to Afghanistan in institution building and disaster management, and if Beijing and New Delhi join hands this could make for a fruitful partnership. The India-China joint training program for Afghan diplomats is a significant move in this direction. India and China can also look at joint scholarships to Afghan students where they can spend part of their time in China and the remaining time in India.

Both India and New Delhi for any meaningful cooperation in Afghanistan can not be risk averse, and will have to shed their hesitation. Beijing for instance has opted for a very limited ‘capacity building’ , where it will work with India in Afghanistan. While Kabul had expected that both sides will invest in a significant infrastructure project, Beijing with an eye on its ally Islamabad’s sensitivities opted for a low profile project.

Conclusion

New Delhi should not be too predictable in it’s dealings with Washington DC, and has to do a fine balancing act between Beijing and Washington DC. While on certain strategic issues are synergies between India and the US, on crucial economic and geo-political issues, there are serious differences, and India’s ties with Beijing are crucial in this context. New Delhi and Beijing should seek to expand economic ties, and the latter should give more market access to Indian goods. Apart from this, both countries should work closely on connectivity projects. If both sides build trust, the sky is the limit but it will require pragmatism from both sides. Beijing should not allow the Pakistani deep state to dictate it’s links with India (especially in the context of cooperation in Afghanistan). New Delhi on its part, should not make any one issue a sticking point in its complex but very important relationship with Beijing.

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