The correlation witnessed between India and Pakistan in the last six decennium can be described as an endeavour without any mean. Without hesitation both countries are in a domineering posture to defame one another in the attainable opportunity. India’s stances are in a commodious position compared with Pakistan.
This is because India has the better ground reality than Pakistan in terms of economy and democracy without relying on other countries. Due to Pakistan inability to place its Generals – it is suffering and could not make peace with her neighbours particularly with India, without consulting the army. Hence, Pakistan does not have sustainable development; it would not move an inch forward in terms of collective prosperity.
Pakistan in the last six decades utilized all its zenith strengths to depose India for their wrong perceived strategic interest. Pakistan now looks very tired since its expectation would not materialize. Pakistan has flunked to glean any lesson from its erstwhile history, it’s a disadvantage. Every step Pakistan tries to aggravate India, Its back fired on Pakistan. Along with the US, Pakistan budded Mujahedeen to barrage the Soviet acquisition in the Subcontinent during the Cold War, now Pakistan is facing those heats in the form of terrorism on its own soil. The terrorist attack on the military school at Peshawar purged more than 141 children, which would be a late-breaking example of the Pakistan vulnerability. This evinces that more Pakistan takes action on their terrorist they turn their wrath on Pakistan more. This is because; Pakistan can’t dare to go down to the root of terrorism. Pakistan is taking a lot of initiatives in the Baluchistan region but not on Taliban. So is not able to undo the zip between the military, ISI and with religious extremism.
The illustrious and strategic coalition between their military, ISI and religious units are even menacing the pivotal foundation of Pakistan. However, the revelation of Pakistan about this menace would be very minimal. The best example would be the late-breaking India and the Pakistan peace manoeuvre. The Indian Prime’s visiting Pakistan without any disclosure, would be seen as giving more urge on his counterpart Nawaz Sheriff.
Modi’s strategic defiance posturing menace to Nawaz, since he could not evince the equivalent kind of rebalancing with the Indian ruling elite. Modi’s short stay in Lahore can be viewed in different strategic angles. However, even it was taken utterly the Pathankot attack aggregates the trust deficit between both the nations. Shortly India and Pakistan will get the award for the longest standing scuffle from the United Nations (UN). Now the buck stops at the terrorist attack on the Indian naval base at Pathankot, would not allow both countries to move forward with full strength. While Modi was the prime ministerial candidate, he reprimanded the Congress Party’s administration initiatives with Pakistan that both terrorism and peace process cannot budge together. Now Modi has to answer the opposition why he is appropriating steps to move with Pakistan while the cross border terrorism on a continuing mode?
Though Pakistan announced formally that – they would adduce the Pathankot perpetrators to lawfulness would not be nabbed beneficially until they evince on it. Because the 2008 Mumbai attack was lively seen by the whole globe, but still the precise master mind of the attack Hafiz Saied and others are freely organizing rallies and hate speeches against India. Pakistan prevails to be the gazers on them would reinforce India’s negative public opinion against Pakistan. At the same time the factuality of the inquiry process has raised many disbelieves against Pakistan and they are still not able to formally acknowledge the FIR names on the Pathankot linked Perpetrators.
However, the Advisor to Pakistan Prime Minister on foreign affairs Saetaj Aziz’s recent interview to a Indian media gave some hope on this case. Aziz said to India Today editor, “one of the mobile phone numbers linked to the attackers was traced to the terror group’s headquarters in Pakistan’s Bahawalpur” report by The Statesman. This would be the first time a Pakistan official accepted such kind of sensitive matter formally. Now both countries abide to engage at any cost, as described by many scholars would be interesting to look forward. At this stage Pakistan must act on the Mumbai and Pathankot perpetrators to get India’s full cooperation for extending the peace initiative. Otherwise, the pleasant factor would not stay longer.
Pakistan should on board their generals, ISI and their religious leaders towards the peace process with India. Further, Pakistan should accommodate their opposition parties also to get the bipartisan hinge on this would energize Nawaz Sheriff Initiatives. On the other side Modi also should engage with the major opposition parties before moving forward on Pakistan matter. Many scholar writes about the only way forward would be to engage with Pakistan could be accepted as the available policy from the present Indian elite. However, what India intends to gain on this Endeavour is really a question without Pakistan’s commitment on the question on terror. Otherwise the main argument would get strengthened that India was bow to Pakistan’s terror. The last six decades Pakistan uses terrorism against India as their state policy would still concern for India. Now Pakistan must evince to prove it erroneous to her accusers that it has come out of its past.
The media report suggests that the next meeting would take place out of India and Pakistan, which would be a great appeasement for both countries. However, now the ball is on the Pakistan court. Pakistan has to answer for the Mumbai and Pathankot attack case progress. And also Pakistan cannot prolong by saying that they still require more evidence for them to avenge the mastermind of the attacks. This would prove Pakistan’s inability to deal the religious extremists. It would strongly stir the Indian side and reflect in domestic politics as well. If so, this dialogue would not move forward due to the lack of sustainable support, but would further trigger for huge setback than at least for a feel good factor to think of the next stage.
The present convergence of India and Pakistan for peace cooperation seems to be looking positive. However, it seems to be more a beginning without an end. This is not good for both the countries particularly as neighbours. Time is ripe for Pakistan to realize that how for this would go with the failure approach by the trick of hate its own neighbour once both are the children of one mother called Hindustan.
Accusations to Acknowledgement: The Battle of Article 63 A
The weather is heating up. As the May is ending, Political temperatures are soaring. The fate regarding the country’s political and economic stability will be measured in the upcoming days. Earlier, PDM built momentum by taking on institutions. Maryam Nawaz raised the temperature by targeting key personalities and institutions. Allegations were bursting against the institutions in all dimensions. Today, we witness reversal of roles. Accusations have been outflowing in every Jalsa by PTI. But now suddenly, the “accusations” turned into “acknowledgment”. “Complaints” started transforming into “Compliments”. Is it the change of narrative? Is it another U-turn? Or is it the restoration of confidence in the institutions? Where will this chaos end?
The Supreme Court’s “decision” or as they say “opinion” or “binding” on Article 63 A has raised some pertinent questions on the status of CM Punjab election? In the interpretation of Article 63 A of the constitution, the Supreme court categorically condemns the practice of horse trading by calling it “a cancer afflicting the body politic”. Supreme Court in its decision of 3-2 rejected the vote count of these dissident members against the party directives. So the future of the Chief Executive of Punjab is now under threat because it is contrary to what happened in National Assembly. The political instability continues and the situation is messy.
In light of this verdict, Hamza has a support of 172 MPAs in Punjab assembly but at the same time, he also has 4 dissenting members which draws the figure to 168. Now further moving ahead, PTI and alliance also has a collective figure of 168 votes minus 21 dissenting members. The situation here in Punjab is way too complex now. A support of 186 members is required for a clear majority in Punjab assembly to formulate a government. This current Punjab government can either fall through a governor led vote of no confidence or a Supreme court order. The governor even has a right to dissolve the assembly with his discretionary powers according to Article 112 (2) of the constitution. Supreme Court has already made its decision on cross voting against Party fiat. Now legal experts are interpreting the decision in their own dictionaries. What will happen in Punjab? What will happen on the federal level? Will there be an election call? If so, what will be the care taker setup? Will there be a fresh mandate? Who will make the hard economic decisions? Lot needs to be answered in these crucial times.
From “My judges disappointed me” to “Thankyou Supreme Court”, a lot has happened and a lot is ready to take place. Islamabad is full of gossips, interpretations, whispers and predictions these days. There is something seething under this political turmoil. The Red zone is under a lot of pressure whether politically or economically. Pre – Elections, Elections and then Post elections, we have a lot of consequences of a lot of hard decisions. But hard decisions need to be taken. Question is who is ready to make the hard choices? Be Afraid!!
The sizzling “Political Matrix”; What will happen now?
Politics in Pakistan is unfortunately leaving scars that will fade away not that easily. Islamabad today is wrapped in thick political clouds since past few weeks. These last few weeks have altered all assumptions and calculations in the national political matrix. While the political landscape today is sizzling with intensity, aggression and strain the economy is shattering every day. Who is to blame for? What will happen now? And will sanity prevail?
The entire edifice of the “conspiracy mantra” which even made PTI commit violation of the constitution stands demolished today. It was one of the worst advices Imran khan could ever get from his party among the list of many others. Sadly he made his entire politics captive to this conspiracy myth. But today no one questions them on the impact it had on our foreign policy. US today feels betrayed, Saudis not ready to give aid, Chinese worried about their stakes and it continues. So diplomatically this conspiracy mantra has damaged Pakistan like anything.
Imran Khan’s followers see nothing wrong in what he says and what he does. They absolutely reject all the facts, all the logics and embrace the rhetoric which is fuelling more today with a greater intensity. Imran khan is leading this campaign more aggressively. Khan very well knows that bringing large crowds to Islamabad will have an impact only if there is some kind of aggression. The leaders on different occasions already hinted towards an aggressive March. He very well realizes that the figure of 2.5 Million is unrealistic but keeping in view the size of Islamabad, 0.1 Million crowd will even be perceived as a bigger crowd. So can he force the early elections at this stage? How will the government react to it? For instance let’s accept this narrative that the pressure of crowd aids PTI in getting an early election call and PTI wins it. So now what next? How will you deal with the mighty US? The economy is already sinking. You need aid to feed it but no one is providing you that. Then how will you stop dollar from going above 200? How will you provide relief from the soaring fuel prices when you won’t have money for a subsidy even? Forget about one lakh jobs and 50 lakh houses.
From the past few weeks we haven’t heard any PTI leader telling any economic plan or any diplomatic plan to revive relations. How will you deal with the IFI’s, World Bank & IMF when they’re all US controlled and as per your narrative you won’t accept “Amreeka ki Ghulami” or USA’s dictatorship.
So now what options the present regime has? The government would of course like to stop this building dangerous momentum of “Azadi March”. They would not like any big clash in Islamabad which results in bigger mess and chaos. The PDM government also has a much bigger fish to deal with, the same sinking economy. They came into power with this narrative to fix economy as former Premiere was unable to do it. The key cabinet members made more than two different official visits. The instructions are coming from London today as a decisive power so who will run the government? Who will run the system? Will the IMF aid? What will be the upcoming budget about? This upcoming budget is a bigger risk for this government along with an already announced to Long march call. Khan has already played a dangerous narrative especially with the blame of another conspiracy being made about his Life.
The stakes, the narrative and the politics of every party is at risk today. But above that, Pakistan is at risk. The dread is in the air. The end of May will be heated ferociously in Islamabad, whether politically or meteorologically.
Sri Lankan economic crisis and the China factor
After the resignation of Mahinda Rajapaksa, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is the sole member of the United National Party (UNP), was sworn in as Sri Lankan Prime Minister on Thursday, May 12, 2022. Wickremesinghe will be holding the position of Sri Lankan PM for the sixth time. While the new Sri Lankan PM is a seasoned administrator, the task of restoring even a modicum of normalcy to the island nation’s economy, which is currently facing its worst economic crisis since its independence in 1948 seems to be a Herculean task (Wickremesinghe has clearly indicated, that his first task will be ensuring the supply of electricity, diesel and petrol to the people).
The grave economic crisis, which has resulted in acute shortage of food and essential commodities have brought ordinary people on the roads and demonstrations have resulted in violence and loss of lives (the Sri Lankan President had to declare a state of emergency twice first last month and then earlier this month). There had been a growing clamor for the resignation by President Gottabaya Rajapaksa but Wickremesinghe was sworn in after the exit of Mahinda Rajapaksa (protests have been carrying on even after the swearing in of Wickremesinghe)
During his previous tenure, Wickremesinghe had tried to reduce Sri Lanka’s dependence upon China, and in his current tenure he will be compelled to do the same. He had also been critical of the previous government for not approaching the IMF for assistance (Wickremesinghe has been repeatedly accused of being pro-west and having neoliberal leanings by many of his political opponents).
It would be pertinent to point out, that the PM had also batted for a coordinated regional response, by SAARC vis-à-vis the covid19 pandemic. The new Sri Lankan PM has also been an ardent advocate of improving ties with India.
While it is true, that Sri Lanka finds itself in the current situation due to economic mismanagement and excessive dependence upon the tourism sector (which faced a severe setback as a result of covid 19), it is tough to overlook the level of debts piled vis-à-vis China, and the fact that the Island nation was following China’s model of economic growth with a focus on big ticket infrastructure projects.
Another South Asian nation — Pakistan which witnessed a change last month where Shehbaz Sharif took over as Prime Minister, replacing Imran Khan, also faces daunting economic challenges. Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves were estimated to be a little over $ 10 billion on May 6, 2022 and the Pakistani Rupee fell to its all time low versus the US Dollar on Thursday, May 12, 2022. Shehbaz Sharif ever since taking over as PM has repeatedly reiterated the importance of Pakistan’s ties with China and the Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto in a conversation with his Chinese counterpart alluded to the same, with Pakistan’s Foreign office in a statement released after the conversation between Bhutto and Wang Yi said:
“underscored his determination to inject fresh momentum in the bilateral strategic cooperative partnership and add new avenues to practical cooperation”.
Yet, China has categorically said that it will not provide any financial assistance until Pakistan resumes the IMF aid program. Pakistan has been compelled to look at other alternatives such as Saudi Arabia and UAE, which have also said that without the revival of the IMF program aid will not be possible. Only recently, Chinese power companies functioning under the umbrella of the China Pakistan Economic corridor (CPEC) have threatened to shut down their operations if their dues (to the tune of 1.59 billion USD) are not cleared. China had also reacted very strongly to the terror attack on Karachi University in which three Chinese teachers lost their lives, this is the second such attack after 2021. China in recent years had also indicated to Pakistan, that it was not happy with the progress of the China Pakistan Economic (CPEC) project. The current government in Pakistan has repeatedly pointed to this fact.
One point which is abundantly clear from the economic crisis in Sri Lanka as well as the challenges which Pakistan is facing is that excessive dependence upon China has disastrous consequences in the long run. If one were to look at the case of South Asia, Bangladesh has been astute by not being excessively dependent upon China – it has maintained robust economic relations with India and Japan. Given the changing economic situation it is becoming increasingly important for developing countries, especially in South Asia, to join hands to confront the mounting challenges posed by excessive dependency upon China. US, Japan and western multilateral bodies and financial institutions need to find common ground and provide developing countries with an alternative economic narrative. It is also time for India along with other countries in the South Asian region to find common ground and focus on robust economic cooperation.
In Times of Division, Arts and Culture Bring Us Together: Meet the Davos Cultural Leaders
The World Economic Forum announced today the participation of prominent cultural leaders in the Annual Meeting 2022 in Davos-Klosters. These...
U.S.’ Unperturbed Response to Indian BrahMos Launch in Pakistan: Aberration or New Normal?
As India’s nuclear-capable BrahMos cruise missile crashed into the territory of its nuclear-armed and ever-hostile adversary on the evening of...
Maharashtra Joins the World Economic Forum in the Fight Against Plastic Pollution
Maharashtra state, through its Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, has joined the World Economic Forum’s Global Plastic Action Partnership...
After Two-Year Hiatus, Open Forum returns to Davos at a Crucial Turning Point in History
As part of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022, this year’s Open Forum Davos will focus on the impacts...
Effective Investment in China: What Should Be Done When the Situation Gets Complicated?
The current Chinese economy is facing a complex situation and is under unprecedented pressure to maintain steady economic growth. The...
Return of the Marcos and Great-Power Competition
Ferdinand Marcos Jr., more commonly known as “Bongbong,” won an outright majority in the recent presidential election in the Philippines....
How to Choose the Best Mental Health Professional?
Choosing a better professional is like choosing in millions as you don’t know where to start. You first need to...
Americas4 days ago
The Secret U.S. & UK War Against Europe
Intelligence4 days ago
How 4chan Radicalizes Youth and Grooms Them Towards Terrorism
Economy4 days ago
Awakened Pakistan Now Needs National Mobilization of Entrepreneurialism
Defense4 days ago
CSTO anniversary summit: New challenges and threats
Economy4 days ago
China’s Policy Logic and Economic Rationale
Economy3 days ago
G7’s potential should be utilized positively
Middle East3 days ago
Saudi religious moderation: the world’s foremost publisher of Qur’ans has yet to get the message
Economy3 days ago
Warning Signs in China’s Economic Outlook as COVID-19 Spreads