For India, wasting huge resources on joint cricket exercises, cricket matches are more important than the government budgets that are approached with usual ease.
Even while a budget is being presented in the parliament, in fact, the ministers and MPs are worried more about India’s chances for more cricket matches to “improve ranking” and bogus records by mutual consents. This explains how much the cricket mafia controls Indian government and mindset.
Even as Indian and Pakistani cricket teams were seemingly making joint efforts in Bangladesh to reach the final to let India shine eventually in T20 as part of so-called Asia cup, played in the night (5 teams are allowed to play: 4 South Asian teams India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and hopeless UAE), Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley presented the BJP government’s Union Budget 2016 on February 29 morning, making it appear to be pro-poor.
For India cricket match is as good as budget making and the Indian finance minister Jaitley was earlier an important BCC boss. Indian FM Jaitley, pitching now for economic growth, hailed the Indian economy’s big strides.
The Modi government unveiled a fire-fighting budget that seeks to win back support among rural voters for Modi’s government and sustain growth against a grim global backdrop – all without borrowing more. Jaitley claims India’s growth has accelerated to 7.6% in 2015-16 notwithstanding contraction of global exports. He said India’s growth is extraordinarily high. “Our external situation is robust, CAD has declined to $14.4 billion this year, will be 1.4% of GDP at the end of fiscal. CPI inflation has also come down to 5.5% from 9.4% in the last three years”.
Jaitley described his three priorities as: strengthening India’s firewalls by ensuring macroeconomic stability and prudent fiscal management; driving growth through domestic demand; and reforms to boost economic opportunity. Key areas of policy focus would be farming, social reforms, infrastructure and recapitalizing India’s banking system
With state elections coming on their way this year, the Modi government feels the state governments take all credits for schemes and mega projects launched by central government and it is eager to pitch for full credit for its programs and the budget would stress that all major projects in states are in fact BJP government’s.
Arun Jaitley’s third budget marked a strategic shift by addressing rural distress in a country of 1.3 billion, where two-fifths of families rely on farming and are reeling from two years of drought. Jaitley reeled off a list of $16 billion in measures targeted at the countryside, including spending on a job creation scheme, farmers’ welfare and building of rural roads. He also targeted a total of $130 billion in credit to farmers.
Jaitley laid out plans to electrify all Indian villages by 1 May 2018 and allocated Rs 8,500 crore for rural electrification in fiscal 2017. As in every year, the agriculture credit target has been increased to Rs 9 lakh crore from Rs 8.5 lakh crore. It offered a fine blueprint of several small steps to lift India’s villages and encourage small entrepreneurs but failed to impress on NDA-government’s big challenge of taking ahead the reforms process and aggressive infrastructure spending needed to lift the economy to a high growth path. At the same time it hiked public investment in India’s woeful infrastructure by 22.5 percent, while taking further steps to revive corporate investment that Modi needs to create new jobs for India’s burgeoning workforce.
Jaitley called Asia’s third-largest economy a bright spot in a gloomy global landscape, and reiterated a false forecast that it would grow by 7.6 percent in the fiscal year that is drawing to a close. But, despite hefty commitments on rural welfare and health, Jaitley managed to stick to his fiscal deficit target of 3.5 percent of gross domestic product for the 2016/17 fiscal. Rural demand is weak, private investment is dead in the water and, of course, we have a banking crisis
Jaitley said the government wanted to ensure that the benefits of growth are more widely shared among India’s 1.3 billion people and he unveiled pro-poor budget to placate voters, pledges reforms Finance Minister Arun Jaitley unveiled a budget for the poor, announcing new rural aid and health programmes in a strategy shift that could boost his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in coming state elections.
Apparently, the Modi government has spared the common man, has not added more burdens on common masses in the budget. More taxes would certainly have meant popular crisis. At first glance, Budget 2016 is naturally more a Modi budget, than a statement of purpose from Jaitley. Packed with several small-steps initiatives but lacking major bold steps to undertake much needed reforms.
India holds several state elections this year, including in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, with the country’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, going to the polls in 2017. A strong showing will be vital to Modi’s chances of a second term. Despite commanding a large majority in parliament’s lower house, Modi’s government has failed to pass several key measures since sweeping to power almost two years ago, raising doubts over the impact of its reform agenda.
After BJP’s losses in Delhi and Bihar elections, govt put emphasis on social sector, farmers and rural India. The themes– poor, farmers and women–which had been gaining accent in Modi’s speeches in recent months, resounded in the budget, blunting the blitzkrieg of the Congress led by its vice-president Rahul Gandhi calling the NDA a “suit-boot ki sarkar”.
The Union Budget 2016 bore PM Modi’s imprint rather than that of his finance minister, Arun Jaitley. Among budget highlights, FM Jaitley announced 1% excise duty to be levied on all articles of jewellery except silver. This means silver prices are going to remain unchanged. Government will increase ATMs, micro-ATMs in post offices in next three years. Government announced deduction for rent paid to be raised to Rs 60,000 to Rs 20,000 to benefit those living in rented houses. People who don’t have any houses of their own or don’t get house compensation from employers get rebate of Rs 24,000 per annum. Ceiling of tax rebate for taxpayers with up to Rs 5 lakh annual income to be raised to Rs 5000 from Rs 2000 currently; Daily working hours and weekly hours for employees of malls and small shops will be regulated. For first time home buyers will be levied for loans up to Rs 35 lakh for property not exceeding Rs 50 lakh.
The major highlight of the budget was Jaitley’s big push on agriculture and rural India. For rural development he announced a package of Rs 87,765 crore in fiscal year 2017 as against Rs 79,526 crore. That apart, Jaitley announced a subsidy scheme for BPL families for cooking gas and said the government targets to double the income of farmers by 2020 and Rs 2,000 crore for new LPG connections. Jaitley allocated Rs 35,984 crore for the farming sector, Rs 86,500 crore on irrigation for five years, and Rs 15,000 crore interest for agricultural loans.
Jaitley promised that there “won’t be compromise” on the spending side, announcing a 11 percent increase to Rs 19.78 lakh crore in fiscal 2017 from Rs 17.77 lakh crore BE year before. Of this, plan expenditure is up by 15 percent to Rs 5.5 lakh crore and non-plan expenditure increased by 9 percent to Rs 14.28 lakh crore. But the government lowered its spending on the infrastructure segment. For fiscal year 2017, Jaitley allocated Rs 55,000 crore for roads and highways.
The Economic Survey announced on a week ago, ahead of the budget, spelled out the first priority for Jaitley to deal with in the budget — ensure that growth momentum is on. This is because the current environment is fraught with risks, which threaten all the engines of India’s growth. For fiscal year 2017, Jaitley announced a fiscal deficit target of 3.5 percent and for the fiscal year 2016, the fiscal deficit target has been met at 3.9 percent. This news could make the rating agencies, investors and the RBI happier since there was immense pressure on the government to stick to the fiscal consolidation roadmap.
The BJP government has set a disinvestment target of Rs 56,500 crore for fiscal year 2017 as against Rs 69,500 crore for fiscal year 2016. Of this Rs 56,500 crore, Rs 36,000 crore is through the sale of stake in state-run companies and the rest through strategic sales. In the last year, as against the target of Rs 69,500 core, the government managed to raise only Rs 18,421 crore (from sale of stake in six PSUs) on account of lukewarm market conditions.
For fiscal year 2017, Jaitley announced a capital infusion of Rs 25,000 for government-banks, which was part of the Rs 70,000 crore announced for five years last year
However, Finance minister Jaitley has failed so far to get hold of the root of the problems that has engulfed India’s Rs 95 trillion banking industry. Jaitley’s banking sector strategy fell short of what was needed to revive state-run banks. The bad loan crisis in the banking sector has severely constrained the ability of the banks to fund long-gestation infrastructure projects.
Modi’s change of course seeks to prevent a repeat of the fate of the Vajpayee government led by his nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), whose relentless optimism – summed up by its “India Shining” slogan – grated with voters who dispatched it after one term in 2004.
The spending package marks a radical shift from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s initial focus on investing in infrastructure in a bid to kick-start private-sector investment that remains weak. Making a strategic turn in its priorities from industry to the under-privileged, the political message was lucid. The BJP, which faced humiliating defeats in the Bihar and Delhi, underlined the budget’s emphasis on social sector, farmers, rural India and poor.
The Opposition rejected the budget, dubbing it as a political budget which has nothing to give impetus to three engines of growth– agriculture, private investment and exports.
The shift in the government’s economic script was forseeable. Modi has held four farmers rallies across the country over the past month even as he has been underlining the need to focus on “antyodaya”, the last man in the queue.
In his third budget, Jaitley described the country’s 120 million farmers as the “backbone of the country’s food security” and promised to double their income in five years. He also said government would increase spending on the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MNREGA), a scheme brought by the UPA regime offering 100 days of employment to villagers. He announced providing BPL families with LPG connections with subsidy, an echo of the Prime Minister’s concern about women whose eyes watered while cooking on chullahs. Announcing government’s commitment towards rural electrification, he assured 100 per cent village electrification by May, 2018.
Besides fiscal consolidation, the focus of the budget has been on infrastructure, which has even been acknowledged by the Opposition. The total outlay on the infrastructure is Rs2, 21,246 crore. For building or renting houses, there are tax benefits and for the first time home buyer the deduction for interest paid on home loan has been raised by Rs50, 000 a year.
Former finance minister P Chidambaram refuted the government’s claim that the budget was pro-farmer. “The crucial signal in agriculture sector is the price. Last year, I think the farmers were cheated.. I would have expected that the price signal is given clearly to the farmers. Immediately it is the prices signal that enthuse the farmers. One of the reasons for acute distress in rural India is that the farmers are not getting fair and remunerative prices for their produce,” he said. CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury said the budget will “create greater economic inequalities, reduced purchasing power, was not growth oriented and appeased international capital more than meeting people’s requirements.”
The 2016 budget, a big test for Jaitley, was a tough balancing act between the fiscal consolidation and much-needed spending to revive growth in the economy, especially in the face of rising investor-pessimism on the rise, which has risked Modi’s task of reviving the economy. Jaitley committed to the fiscal consolidation path, but failed to impress by setting aside enough funds to push ahead the infrastructure growth and address the banking sector woes.
In the past, the delays in project implementations in India have resulted in huge cost-over runs to companies. The corporate sector will eagerly look for measures that can ease their burden, especially in the infrastructure projects.
One should note that Jaitley’s big task remains making sure the engines of economic growth aren’t failing. This year, the increase in infra spending is merely Rs 30,000 crore as against Rs 70,000 crore last year, which isn’t so encouraging at this stage of economic growth.
There are certainly ifs and buts in budgets presented by governments with a lot of predictions and lies. The parliamentarians, even while debating the budgets, are enjoying their stay in the Houses. How much of what is said in the budget would be implemented by Modi government remains to be seen.
Meanwhile one can understand why Sri Lanka and Bangladesh and even Pakistan as powers also want to serve India? How come all these big powers like UK and Australia are scared of India. Has India paid huge sums as FDI to these countries to boycott the WC t20?
At times Bangladesh plays bit seriously well, defeating both Sri Lanka and Pakistan and reaching the finals to face “mighty cricket India”. Will BD sustain the tempo against India or collapse for whatever reason?
No one knows it for sure. Big secrecy? Most cricketers today are on the payrolls of India’s some of richest IPL bosses and possibly of BCCI for their “dedicated” services in honour of India, making it shine perpetually on the field.
For India, like its neighbors Pakistan and Sri Lanka, cricket is perhaps more profitable business than foreign trade these countries conduct. Mafias make huge money both from black and white from cricket. Lankan cricketers, who cannot but play in IPL as their duty, appear to consider Indian currency too valuable.
No matter how the budget is prepared and presented in the parliament, mafias and middlemen continue to thrive.
The budget would be forgotten by the government and people sooner than later, but not the cricket matches, because budget does not enjoy the importance the cricket does. Budget or no budget, India can go on but without cricket dramas it appears India simply cannot exist. One can’t say so sure about other countries if they are also so innocently emotional….
Post-UNGA: Kashmir is somewhere between abyss and fear
Hailed as a hero for calling out New Delhi’s draconian measures in occupied Kashmir, Imran Khan warned the world of a “bloodbath” once India lifts its lockdown of Jammu and Kashmir. He persuaded global leaders to denounce the brutalities and human rights violations unleashed on Kashmiris ever since the disruption of the decades old status quo, which had been granted by the symbolic autonomy of Articles 370 and 35(A) within the Indian constitution. The constitutional coup d état ensures the alienation of Kashmiris in IOK beyond the point of redemption with massive spillover effects across the LOC. Pakistan is home to 4,045,366 self-governed and independent Kashmiris as per the 2017 census, who are desired of more than a political and diplomatic support for their brothers in IOK. India and Pakistan have already fought three wars on the Kashmir issue.
Focusing on the brazen denial of core human values, Imran Khan prognosticated a more radicalized world as the scourge of radicalism finds more fodder in a discriminated society. If climate change is ignored, the clichés of religious affiliation continues and the inherent right of self-determination remains disregarded, violent reaction is inevitable. He said, “we all know that marginalisation leads to radicalization”… “No one did research that before 9-11, the majority of suicide bombers in the world were Tamil Tigers. They were Hindus”, but Hindus rightly escaped the blame since belief and religion has nothing to do with desperation.
Imran Khan talked more like Gandhi than the nation of Gandhi itself. He reminded the world of the reincarnation of the progrom and racial ridden medieval periods when religion and state were inseparable .It has reshaped and now resides more in inter-state relations while negatively stirring regional cooperation and globalization. Already enwrapped in a world of deprivation, the fifth largest population of South Asia is fearfully seen at the brink of a nuclear war with there being very few options left for a seven times smaller nuclear state of Pakistan, which has been already driven to the wall. The speech was well received and touched a chord with many Kashmiris reeling under the unprecedented communications blackout and travel restrictions in place since August 5.
“It felt like there is someone to watch our back. It felt that someone is talking for us, that we are not alone”, was the feeling commonly displayed. Hundreds of affected Kashmiri stakeholders came out of their homes, shouting slogans in support of Imran Khan and calling for the independence of Kashmir despite the movement restrictions and deployment of additional force by India in Srinagar.A fresh charge sheet has also been filed by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) of India against the chief of Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front, (JKLF) Yasin Malik, and other leaders including Asiya Andrabi, and Masarat Alam on October 4, 2019.
Conjuring up his dystopian vision, Prime Minister Modi made no mention of the disputed region of Kashmir in his read-out speech at the UN along the lines of diplomatically bureaucratic explanation. He only ticked the fanciful boxes of development, progress, and world peace, annihilation of terrorism and protection of environment. This speech however, was soon followed by a threat from his own government’s defence minister calling for the liberation of Pakistani Administered Kashmir as the next step in India’s quest for regional dominance.
Moreover, Imran Khan has also expressed his fears in his erstwhile meetings with Donald Trump, Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron and Boris Johnson on the sidelines of the General Assembly session. Trump has offered mediation, but only if both Pakistan and India agree. A senior US diplomat for South Asia called for a lowering of rhetoric between India and Pakistan, while saying that Washington hoped to see rapid action by India to lift restrictions it has imposed in Kashmir and the release of detainees there. Similarly, State Councilor and Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, in his address to the General Assembly on 27 September stated that,;”The Kashmir issue, a dispute left from the past, should be peacefully and properly addressed in accordance with the UN Charter, Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreements.”
Nonetheless, an arrogant denial by India to the support of Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir by Turkey and Malaysia is more of an inept understanding of diplomacy and international commitment. India needs to step out of the skeptical comprehension of the role of the UN that was pronounced by Ms. Vidisha Maitra India’s Permanent Mission to the UN. The sway of diplomatic terms espoused with preconceived historical interpretations could be misguiding for political leaders. Modi needs to keep his ears close to the ground to save his political future. It is an extensional battle for Kashmiris. No concertina wire can blur the contradiction in his approach to the issue, “when they are in India they say it is an internal issue and when they are on the international forums, they consider it a bilateral issue,” said one of the residents of Srinagar. Confusion exacerbates the fear, which consequently becomes a forerunner to terrorism. Same goes for the US whose mediator’s role gets paradoxical by Trump’s close alliance with Modi in his perusal of Asia-Pacific policy. Though, Imran Khan is perpetually using his political and diplomatic influence proactively, to mobilize both the international community and his own people, the anti-India feeling, the pro-militancy sensitivity and the general sense of despair — is stronger than before in Kashmir.
Kashmir Issue at the UNGA and the Nuclear Discourse
The Kashmir issue has more significance in view of the nuclearization of South Asia as many security experts around the world consider Kashmir a potential ‘nuclear flashpoint’ between India and Pakistan. The revocation of the special constitutional status of Kashmir by the BJP government on August 5, 2019, also referred to as Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act 2019 and the subsequent lockdown in Kashmir has since considerably increased political and diplomatic tensions between India and Pakistan. India’s recent moves and actions in Kashmir have once again internationalized the Kashmir dispute. This was evident during the UN General Assembly’s 74th Session, where the Kashmir issue remained a crucial agenda item for several countries.
During this year’s session prominent leaders of the world condemned Indian brutalities in Kashmir. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan criticized the international community for failing to pay attention to the Kashmir conflict and called for dialogue to end this dispute. Malaysian Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad said that Kashmir “has been invaded and occupied” by India despite the UN resolution on the issue. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also discussed the issue and called for a peaceful resolution of the dispute based on the UN Charter and Security Council resolutions. Based on the grave importance of Kashmir as a potential ‘nuclear flashpoint’ between India and Pakistan, Prime Minister Imran Khan, while addressing the UNGA warned the world community about the dangers of a nuclear war that according to him might break out over Kashmir due to Indian atrocities. The current situation appears to be the most critical time for both the countries and the region as both countries are nuclear-armed.
However, unfortunately, the Indian leaders and media perceived Prime Minister Imran Khan’s warning as a nuclear threat and termed it as ‘brinkmanship’. Contrary to this perspective, it is worth mentioning here that the Indian leadership itself is involved in negative nuclear signaling and war hysteria against Pakistan in recent months. For instance, the 2019 Indian General Election campaign of Prime Minister Modi was largely based on negative nuclear signaling comprising of several threats referring to the possible use of nuclear weapons against Pakistan. Furthermore, as an apparent shift from India’s ‘No First Use’ (NFU) policy, on August 16, 2019Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, while on a visit to the Pokhran nuclear test site paid tribute to the late former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and asserted that India might review its NFU policy. He stated that a change in future circumstances would likely define the status of India’s NFU policy. Since then there is no official denial of this assertion from India which indicates that India might abandon its NFU policy.
Moreover, India’s offensive missile development programs and its growing nuclear arsenal which include; hypersonic missiles, ballistic missile defence systems, enhanced space capabilities for intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance and the induction of nuclear-powered ballistic-missile-capable submarines clearly indicate that India’s nuclear weapons modernization is aimed at continuously enhancing its deterrence framework including its second-strike capabilities vis-à-vis Pakistan. This is also evident from India’s military preparations under its more recent doctrines such as the 2017 Joint Doctrine of the Indian Armed Forces (JDIAF) and the 2018 Land Warfare Doctrine (LWD)which are also based upon more proactive offensive strategies and indirect threats of pre-emptive strikes against Pakistan.
As evident from the above-mentioned developments, it seems likely that India aspires to increasingly project itself as a regional hegemon and a potential superpower. The BJP government under Prime Minister Modi inspired by the Hindutva ideology is taking offensive measures under the notions of ‘a more Muscular or Modern India’ based on strong military preparedness. In such circumstances, Pakistan’s threat perception would likely remain increasingly inclined towards its eastern border. Pakistan due to its economic constraints would also likely face considerable difficulties in competing with India toe to toe with respect to its military modernization plans. Pakistan is already punching well above its weight, and nuclear deterrence would be the only way through which Pakistan can maintain a precise balance of power to preserve its security. This could only be carried out by deterring India with the employment of both minimum credible deterrence and full-spectrum deterrence capabilities. This posture clearly asserts that since Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are for defensive purposes in principle, they are aimed at deterring India from any and all kinds of aggression.
Hence, at the present India’s forceful annexation of occupied Kashmir and the resultant nuclear discourse at the UNGA has further intensified Pakistan-India tensions. Under present circumstances, the situation could easily trigger another politico-military escalation between India and Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi has bet his political reputation on his move to annex the region and his political career is on the line. The same way Pakistan’s politico-military establishment is equally unlikely back down from its stance on Kashmir. It would be difficult for both countries to come down from the escalation ladder because politico-military reputations would be at stake at both ends. Consequently, Pakistan might be forced to take action before India’s modernization plans get ahead and might respond even sooner.
The nuclear discourse in Prime Minister Imran Khan’s speech against the backdrop of the Kashmir crisis at such a high forum like UNGA would likely keep the issue internationalized. The situation demands the UN fulfill its responsibility of ensuring peace and to prevent billions of people from the dangers of a nuclear war. However, Indian blame game, aggressive behavior and offensive nuclear signaling against Pakistan all present a clear warning of nuclear war. It would greatly limit the prospects for international mediation especially by the United Nations whose resolutions on Kashmir clearly provide a right of self-determination to decide Kashmir’s future.
1.2 trillion rupees on the move: Modi’s greatest piece of purchase yet
Last week, the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) was taken aback by more than a surprise. Just when it was dealing with the uncomfortable series of events that led to the transfer of surplus 1.2 trillion rupees into the government of India; social media erupted. It quickly realized that losing the battle regarding the transfer would only add fuel to the hoax of closing down nine commercial banks. RBI enjoys considerable amount of autonomy and independence in the largest democracy, and still, it had to kneel down to Modi’s alleged quick fix.
The RBI would have to vouch for the government in times of need, it is primarily what is expected of the institution; but there was a great deal of discomfort in how the government justified it. A committee set up under the ex-governor, Mr Bimal Jalan, cited how central banks would not need so much of surplus to carry out their affairs. Effectively, it was an order, not a request, which became the underlying discomfort behind RBI’s hesitancy in adhering to the views of capital transfer committee. Not that anyone expected the central lender to protest longer, it did however, request Mr Jalan to reconsider the decision at the face of various consequences. To say the least, it was embarrassing for a premier financial institution to be put under the public eye. The social media hoax was another ridicule of the sickly RBI. In the tales of grand conquests, the victorious army steals the wealth from the losing party. Similarly, the BJP led government in India are redefining all forms of state tools in favour of their interests.
Stolen wealth is most often than not used to correct economic blunders. Just like in the tales of grand conquests, the decision to transfer national wealth from the reserve bank is nothing new. It is nevertheless baffling, that the money transfer is looping in the same direction. While the BJP government in India were imposing a comprehensive GST (Goods and Service Tax) policy, they would not have anticipated complaints from large industries over decreased consumer consumption. For a party that is now known to redefine the legitimacy of governance, falling prey to NBFC’s (Non-bank Financial Companies) incompetence or bankruptcy is a visible defeat. Unlike many other soaring economies, there are large group of subsidiary lenders operating in India. On hindsight, economic policies are barely creating tunnels through which the capital is getting recycled in the same loop. Revenues are not generating further revenues. It is merely closing down on its self-inflicted gap.
The Security and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) almost played with fire. Uncharacteristically, it proposed a framework to work together with the RBI in order to claim outstanding defaults from high value clients. The RBI was never going to agree with a defaming offer as such but the incident did fuel the argument of capital shuffling. It only makes the bluff look more real. A strategic plan to counter all measures that would have blocked the transfer of trillions. As Mr Jalan sheepishly implied how the importance of central bank and what is does is only limited to the public perception, RBI fought a fix in between larger or rather dangerous political agendas. Consolidating requests from SEBI to only fall into the whims of the government shows the lack lustre personality of the central funding institution. For the time being, Narendra Modi has his way, a theft of national treasure-like his opposition colleague Rajiv Gandhi expressed in the media. However, there will also be a far-fetched evaluation of Modi’s actions. A move of 1.2 trillion rupees in the same pot. Not by any means, a cunning cover up.
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