Chechnya today is a federal subject of Russia but long been a boiling point. Al Jazeera report point out that, “it remains a historic challenge for Russia”. The first and second Chechnya war respectively in 1991 and 1999 aimed to contain and crushed the ground gained for independence from the Russian Federation. Since the first Chechnya war more than 1,00,000 people were killed in that many of them were civilians.
Russia’s masterful man President Vladimir Putin has appointed its own man Ramzan Kadyrov in-charge of Chechnya in 2007. Since then Chechnya prevails with some sort of stability. However, the natural mindset of the Chechnya’s would be the real question. Russian troops today in Chechnya as peacemakers. However, the US embassy cables in 2006 said, Kremlin’s present tactics towards in maintaining stability in Chechnya has limited ability to respond. This projection has could be meant with based on two observations. Firstly, the present economic situation in Russia link with the Ukraine crisis. The sanctions on Russia by the EU and the US have made challenges and opportunities for Russia. Russia could not get market access from the near neighbor EU; however, on this shadow of the crisis it has earned more contracts from the Chinese to export for its liquid gas. Secondly, the capacity of Putin’s man Kadyrov dealing with grassroots challenges in making the region peace. Further, the accusation on Kadyrov for corruption and many other eventualities which has been buckled with mysterious assassination of opposition political leaders, human rights activists and media personalities have giving more pressure to Putin. Now Putin has no other choice but to lean on Kadyrov for the stability of the region gave more privileges to be enjoyed by Chechnya leader while compare with any other regional leaders in Russia. However, Moscow reluctant to criticize its proxy leader in Chechnya would be perceived the all whether ties between Putin and Kadyrov. Hence, reports climb that Kadyron himself as an increasing challenge to Kremlin. In future if the Chechnya leader goes against the strategic interest of Russia the perception would be Putin resist Kadyrov – perceived to be a jeopardy for the stability of Chechnya.
However, the present report admonishes that – though the concern is at large about the handling of human rights atrocity in Chechnya under the command of Kadyrov the present period would be described as relatively stable. This can be acknowledged as an advantage for Putin. It is true that the international community raise their strong concern against the suppressing on media freedom and human rights issue in Chechnya and criticizing Moscow. Further, though Putin relay on Kadyrov for the harmony in Chechnya always the Russian president keeps his eye on the region preciously. For Putin the advantage would be the free flow of information he has received helps him to theorize the reality in Chechnya in taking advance measures for avoid any farther conflict. This is because of his former designation as the KGP of Russia. The NATO stops at Ukraine would be converted as a strong hold for Putin tactical game in controlling Chechnya further. This should be the double victory for Putin.
During the 2015 the upheaval in the Middle East by the ISIS also has been reach out to Chechnya. The BBC report claims that during the last year “Jihadists, including those aligned with Islamic State and al-Qaeda, remain active in the region”. The philosophical terrorism is more danger than the institutional based, since the rise of the ISIS would be a bad news for Moscow. Hence, the takeover of Moscow theatre by the Chechen rebels in 2002 would be a prolong reminder for Russia. Furthermore, the separatist rebels occupied a school had taken hostages of more than 1100 people in 2004 required a bloody fight for evacuation. In this background the future security threat for Chechnya should be handled. Preventing this kind of atrocities from the rebels to sustain the peace should require a substantial strategy to give a hope for the civilians to keep their trust on Russia for their security.
However, to retain the present momentum in a sustainable format would require undisturbed focus on the region’s local issues, I hope Putin will demonstrate. What Russia should do to – keep its forces continue as the peacemakers in the Chechnya in the same number for the reasonable time – to support the ground level democratic process with in the frame work of Russia. At the same time Moscow should encourage its direct control in the region in support towards for more open dialogue. Further, this open dialogue would have a chance to facilitate to wider the path for most of ordinary Chechnya’s to accept their identity with in Russia. If this happens the more possibility of repels, separatists and terrorists wings would imperceptibly decline in getting their ground support. Hence, this would weak their decisions to fight the mighty Russian army in the future. Moreover, a separate special package of development fund would be a necessary step to reassure for the ongoing educational programmes without any hindrances. At the same time Moscow should keeps its eyes wider if any of the outsiders like the ISIS sympathies recruiting the unemployed youth for fighting outside or to fight inside. This continual momentum has required more funds from the Russian Federation budget, but it may have more chances of keeping the region more stable and under its rule as a unified Russia.