Two of the five states that border the Caspian Sea can be considered hegemonic in the region: Russia and Iran. Although this is beneficial to these states, it is a threat to American interests since these states are also adversarial to the US.
The first reason that Russian and Iranian control over Caspian Sea resources is a threat to the US is that it will increase their hard and soft power influence around the world. The second reason is that Russian and Iranian growth in the Caspian Sea will also increase their ties with one another, laying the groundwork for a troublesome alliance against the US. Hard power utilizes military force and economic might to attain a desired outcome in international relations. Soft power is the ability to shape the preferences of others to your desired outcome. Through newfound power from Caspian Sea resources Russia and Iran will strengthen these hard and soft positions in the world.
Hard power is typically referenced for its capacity to wield military might or the threat of it to pursue foreign policy goals. However it is the economic side of hard power which will be a tool in Russia and Iran’s respective arsenals if they are able to control the flow of resources out of the Caspian Sea. Russia has already shown its willingness to utilize economic hard power for its foreign policy goals. In the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, Russia cut off natural gas supplies to apply pressure on the new anti-Russian government. When many European states tried to resell the gas that they had received from Russia to Ukraine, Russia threatened to cut off their gas supplies unless they abandoned that plan. The European states complied. Being that Russia supplied around 43% of Europe’s natural gas at that point, increasing dependence upon Russian gas from an influx of natural gas from the Caspian Sea will only increase European compliance with Russian policy. Similarly, Iran is preparing a natural gas pipeline that may include Caspian gas that will go through Pakistan. This will allow Iran to put pressure on its American adversary through economic hard power in Pakistan, which has stated that it is not deterred by the threat of US sanctions if it does business with Iran. Being that Pakistan is the main logistical hub for the US effort in Afghanistan it seems that America is being foreign policy ‘outflanked’.
The soft power gains made by Russia and Iran if they control the Caspian Sea’s natural resources will occur both unintentionally and intentionally. Soft power will be gained unintentionally merely through the interaction of Russia and Iran with their customers. For example, the power of Russian business to provide natural gas jobs in NATO countries would predispose more people within these states to pro-Russian attitudes that are contradictory to NATO’s traditional anti-Russian stance. There will also be efforts to intentionally gain soft power influence. Iran already exerts soft power to pursue its foreign policy through portraying itself and its allies as ‘the oppressed,’ which will only be furthered by the new opportunities Caspian resources provide. The major American security guarantee in Europe, NATO, would be compromised if its dependence on Russian Caspian gas was threatened to be cut off. Similarly in Asia, Pakistan’s realist foreign policy allows it to absorb and deflect US pressure in favor of Iranian Caspian natural gas.
Although Russia and Iran are pursuing the Caspian Sea’s resources for their own realist self-interests, their respective stakes in the Caspian Sea will grow the military ties between them. This is problematic for the US since these states are both adversarial to the US and their shared security priorities will increase their respective global capabilities. The groundwork for their mutual goals of security across the Caspian Sea has already been created. Russia just concluded a sale for delivery of multiple S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran which is designed to target advanced aircraft (which is what the West would utilize in any military action against it). Also the Russian Caspian naval flotilla has recently traveled south to conduct joint trainings with Iran, necessary for any joint defense of the Caspian Sea. This groundwork will only be expanded to possibly include contingency plans for the defense of the Caspian Sea, joint command structures, and joint covert action, which Iran is already capable of in the Caspian region.
Deepening their military bond via Caspian Sea resources would serve to further ties between Russia and Iran in general. Iranian ports in the gulf would be open to the Russian navy, easing their force projection across the Middle East and subsequently help project its hard power there. The Russian military would have access to Iranian military bases which would politically and militarily frustrate any attempt by the West to enforce any deviation from the new Iran nuclear accord. Therefore the threat of Russian and Iranian control of the Caspian Sea extends far beyond economics and goes into projecting Russian power into the Middle East and solidifying Iran’s domestic defense against the West.
The Caspian Sea’s natural resources are ripe for takeover by its two regional powers, Russia and Iran. If they are able to dominate control of these resources, American interests far beyond the greater Caspian region and across the Middle East would be threatened. Through the exploitation of both hard and soft power, Russia and Iran will be able to increase their capacity to attain foreign policy goals that are often contradictory to US policy. Therefore it is imperative for the United States to start making control of Caspian Sea resources a far more important national security agenda than it presently is. Preventing Russia and Iran from totally controlling the Caspian Sea and its resources may be in the short-term a maneuver that increases tension in the region, but from Western perspectives it will facilitate their own agenda long-term more efficiently.
