Connect with us

Southeast Asia

Can the ASEAN Economic Community be a success?

Prof. Murray Hunter

Published

on

After almost two decades of discussion, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) will be proclaimed on 31st December. The AEC is a potentially significant and competitive economic region, should it be allowed to develop according to the aspiration of being a “single market and production base, with free flow of services, investments, and labour, by the year 2020”.

The ASEAN region as a composite trading block has the third highest population at 634 million, after China and India. GDP per capita is rapidly rising. The AEC would be the 4th largest exporter after China, the EU, and the United States, with still very much scope for growth from Cambodia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Vietnam from a diverse range of activities ranging from agriculture, food, minerals and commodities, electronics, and services. The coming AEC is already the 4th largest importer of goods after the United States, EU, and China, making it one of the biggest markets in the world.

Unlike the other trade regions, the AEC still has so much potential for growth with rising population, rising incomes, growing consumer sophistication, and improving infrastructure.

Perhaps the biggest benefit of the upcoming AEC is the expected boost this will give to intra-ASEAN trade. Most ASEAN nations have previously put their efforts into developing external relationships with the major trading nations like the EU, Japan and the US through bilateral and free trade agreements. To some extent, the potential of intra-ASEAN trade was neglected, perhaps with the exception of the entrepot of Singapore.

The AEC is an opportunity to refocus trade efforts within the region, especially when Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia are rapidly developing, and Myanmar is opening up for business with the rest of the region.

The social, cultural, political and business interchange within the region has traditionally been low, until the rapid increase of intra-ASEAN travel, due to the low-cost airline explosion within the region.

Today intra-ASEAN trade is approximately 25% of total trade, growing around 10.5% per annum, and expected to reach 30% of total ASEAN trade by the year 2020.

However the necessary infrastructure to support intra-ASEAN trade growth is lagging behind with a delay in the completion of the Trans-Asia Highway in Cambodia, and vastly inadequate border checkpoints between Malaysia and Thailand in Sadao and Kelantan.

Some infrastructure development projects have been severely hit by finance shortfalls within member states.

There are a number of outstanding issues concerning the growth and development of the AEC.

The ASEAN Secretariat based in Jakarta has a small staff, where the best talent is lacking due to the small salaries paid. The Secretariat unlike the EU bureaucratic apparatus in Brussels relies on cooperation between the member state governments for policy direction, funding and implementation of the AEC.

Thus the frontline of AEC implementation are the individual country ministries, which presents many problems, as some issues require multi-ministry cooperation and coordination, which is not always easy to achieve as particular ministries have their own visions and agendas. Getting cooperation of these ministries isn’t easy.

There are numerous structural and procedural issues yet to be contended with. At the inter-governmental level, laws and regulations are yet to be coordinated and harmonized. So in-effect there is one community with 10 sets of regulations in effect this coming January 1st. Consumer laws, intellectual property rights, company and corporate codes (no provision for ASEAN owned companies), land codes, and investment rules are all different among the individual member states.

There are no integrated banking structures, no agreement on common and acceptable currencies (some ASEAN currencies are not interchangeable), no double taxation agreements, and no formal agreements on immigration.

There is not even any such thing as a common ASEAN business visa. These issues are going to hinder market access for regional SMEs. Any local market operations will have to fulfil local laws and regulations which may not be easy for non-citizens to meet and adhere to.

Even though there are some preferential tariffs for a number of classes of ASEAN originating goods, non-tariff barriers are still in existence, which are insurmountable in some cases like the need for import licenses (APs) in Malaysia, and the need to have a registered company which can only be formed by Thai nationals within Thailand.

Some of these problems are occurring because of the very nature of ASEAN itself. ASEAN was founded on the basis of consultation, consensus, and non-interference in the internal affairs of other members. This means that no formal problem solving mechanism exists, and the ASEAN Secretariat is a facilitator rather than implementer of policy. Illegal workers, human trafficking, money laundering, and haze issues between member states have no formal mechanisms through which these issues can be solved from an ASEAN perspective.

This weakens the force for regional integration.

One of the major issues weakening the potential development of the AEC is the apparent lack of political commitment for a common market by the leadership of the respective ASEAN members. Thailand is currently in a struggle to determine how the country should be governed. Malaysia is in the grip of corruption scandals where the prime minister is holding onto power. Myanmar is going through a massive change in the way it will be governed. Indonesia is still struggling with how its archipelago should be governed. There is a view from Vietnam that business within the country is not ready for the AEC.

Intense nationalistic sentiments among for example Thais, exasperated by the recent Preach Vihear Temple conflict along the Thai-Cambodian border need to be softened to get full advantage out of the AEC. The dispute in the International Court of Justice over Pedra Branca, and the Philippine rift with China over the South China Sea show the delicacy of relationships among ASEAN members. The recent Thai court decision on the guilt of Zaw Lin and Win Zaw Tun in the murder of two young British tourists may also show how fragile intra-ASEAN relationships can be.  

The AEC is going to fall far short of achieving its full potential of becoming a major influence in global trade.

The AEC is not intended to be the same model as the EEC. The AEC is far from being any fully integrated economic community. The lack of social, cultural, and political integration within the ASEAN region indicates the massive job ahead that Europe had been through decades ago. There is still a lot of public ignorance about what the AEC is, and lack of excitement or expectation for what should be a major event within the region. Respective national media are scant on information about the forthcoming launch of the AEC.

Economic nationalism is very strong within ASEAN. Malaysia has its Government Linked Companies (GLCs), State Economic Development Corporations (SEDCs), Thailand its Crown Property Bureau, and family business empires within each country which have vested interests in keeping market access at the current status quo. The AEC is seen as a threat to many existing business empires, which fear open market access. Many of these business empires have enormous political influence upon their respective governments.  

The AEC could be deemed to conflict with the special advantages bumiputera businesses in Malaysia enjoy in areas of government tendering and contracting.

It is yet to be seen how some of these businesses will behave within an AEC environment. However what can be said for sure is that the AEC will not create any level playing field for ASEAN businesses in the foreseeable future.

With the problems the EU is currently facing, maybe it is wisdom in hindsight that the leaders of ASEAN have been extremely cautious in their approach to the formation of the AEC. Any opening up of the labour market could also be a potential disaster. A free flow of labour across ASEAN would potentially put many under-qualified people out of work according to Gyorgy Sziraczki, the director of the ILO in Vietnam.

This could lead to economic downturns in some of the more susceptible parts of the AEC like Lao PDR and Cambodia. The AEC rather than promoting intra-ASEAN trade, lead to a more domestic orientation, where unemployed may see the informal economy looking much more attractive means of making a living.

However, if the leadership of ASEAN see the opportunities of dramatically increasing intra-ASEAN trade, then the AEC has great potential to assist the region withstand any steep economic downturn around the rest of the world.

Projects that are able to boost regional synergies like coordination of education, river system water management, energy, transport, banking and finance, may very quickly improve regional integration. Regional clustering can be developed in education, auto-parts, food production, electronic parts, and the value adding of basic commodities to benefit the economies of the region.

Infrastructure development will be vital to the success of the AEC. For this purpose the ASEAN Infrastructure Fund, financed by member countries and the Asian Development Bank will be extremely important. The recent ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur also reactivated the ASEAN Joint Consultative Committee to resolve trade and investment issues.

The slowness of the AEC should not be seen as a failure of ASEAN. We can see the slow pace that ASEAN makes decisions, with the long period it is taking to admit Timur Leste as ASEAN’s 11th member.

The vital questions here are whether the AEC will be able attract direct foreign investment to the region? Take advantage of rising opportunities like international education? Stop the talent drain from the region with China becoming more aggressive in attracting the best from the region? and Create an ASEAN awareness within the region?

Sadly, one may expect the fate of the AEC to be similar to that of the Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle (IMT-GT), and the Brunei Darussalam-Indonesia-Malaysia-The Philippines East ASEAN Growth Area (BIMP-EAGA). They are in existence by name, but with little real substance on the ground.

Innovator and entrepreneur. Notable author, thinker and prof. Hat Yai University, Thailand Contact: murrayhunter58(at)gmail.com

Continue Reading
Comments

Southeast Asia

Being an idiot student is an option

Kevin Fallo

Published

on

“Long live student!” The loud shouts that we always hear when students give speeches in order to convey the aspirations they have accommodated. Students are very synonymous with the terms agent of change, social control, iron stock, moral force or other audible terms intelligent other. Even long before Indonesia’s independence and when Indonesia was still struggling to fight for independence, students were already seen intelligent be it in discussion, mindset, politics, dynamics and so on.

Students also got cooler to hear when the 1998 reforms flared up, one by one the figures or more warmly known as “activists 98” got a proper place in government or in other warm places after entering the reform era. Previously, these 98 activists became heroes in order to uphold justice and voice the real aspirations of the people so that some of them became anti-heroes who broke justice itself after occupying and enjoying the warm seat of government.

Ideally, the role of students is to become a liaison between the community and the government, help translate every government policy to the community, accommodate people’s aspirations to be conveyed to the government, decide untrue news circulating in the community, and help maintain social stability in society. When the role of a student is carried out properly, today’s students can become intelligent.

Know that now students are not all intelligent, even stupid students are born and just die. Even in some big universities, the domination of stupid students is now getting crazy. Students who are not aware of its function, students who are not aware of what it is students and students who only dream of having a GPA that can be sold in the industrial market so they can live safely are symptoms of an idiot student.

These stupid students are not born just like that, some of them even wish they could become good students intelligent but when they saw the situation and condition of the campus that were not like they imagined a feeling of disappointment was born. This disappointment will have an impact on the loss of enthusiasm to become a student intelligent. So that sooner or later they will become completely stupid students.

Everything needs a process

Everything has a process, even instant noodles need to be heated in boiling water and then poured in new spices to be enjoyed. When we don’t see the situation we hope for, please be disappointed, don’t break up there then think about it and start creating the situation we hope for itself. Don’t just be disappointed and keep silent, or waste time waiting for the situation we hope for, because life is also an allowance, don’t waste time, don’t be silent when you lose and don’t be careless when you win, keep going because life needs a continuous process.

Students who took to the streets and gave speeches shouting loudly “Long live students!” It can also be stupid when they go down the road just to be seen, students who are active in organizations can also become stupid when the academic organization on campus is unbalanced. Students who have extraordinary ideas can also become dumb when they are quiet. On the other hand, students can become intelligent when not littering, students can become intelligent when deciding on hoaxes in circulation, students can become intelligent when the organization and campus academic life can run in balance.

The activists nowadays who are busy in politics are already visible intelligent it can also be very silly when people’s interests, justice and truth which have always been upheld are replaced by self-interest and a thirst for power. These are the vices of Satan that we have adopted, namely greed, greed, ungratefulness and treachery. Even though there are still good qualities of Satan that we can imitate, namely the unyielding nature (Satan is known to not give up tempting Adam’s grandchildren to the end of the world) and persistence (Satan is also known to be steadfast in his stance and does not want to submit to Prophet Adam).

To be intelligent doesn’t have to be in politics

The definition is too narrow intelligent if we only link students and politics, students can too intelligent by working according to their respective interests, for example, Turah Parthayana, a student from Bali who is now studying in Russia, has successfully become a YouTuber with content exposing his life as an Indonesian citizen living in Russia, there is also a YouTuber with the same content from Gita Savitri Devi who lives in Germany. , and also with Raditya Dika who exposes life as a student in Australia into novels with comedy spices even though he is no longer a student and focuses on YouTube content with ghost coins in his house, and there are many other examples both as YouTubers, artists, programmers, gamers and so on.

To become a student intelligent it is not difficult nor does it need to start from big things, start from small things that are also able to have an impact and change even though indirectly, start to respect differences, start to be sensitive to social issues and not be very ignorant, start working, start to rise from disappointment and most importantly, never be afraid to start it all, if we don’t dare to start then we will never know how it will turn out.

Return the trust and hope of society to students, return to our functions and roles as students, let’s work and innovate according to our respective interests, be proud of Indonesia in the way we like, don’t waste the sacrifices of fighters who have given up wealth and even family to seize the freedom that we feel today, submit to the truth and fight all injustices in this country. Prove that students are still there, not just a political tool tricked by certain elites. Long live student! Long live Indonesian democracy! Long live the Indonesian people! Long live Indonesian women !.

Continue Reading

Southeast Asia

France, Germany and the UK note verbale to the UN on the SCS issue

Prof. Pankaj Jha

Published

on

Following the enlistment of Chinese companies under sanctions by the US for involvement in SCS for reclamation of islands, there has been increasing pressure on Chinese establishment for course correction. In total, about twenty-four Chinese companies, and their management individuals have been listed under the US sanctions. These 24 companies have been placed in the sanctions list, and the US companies are barred from entering into any trade or investment dealings until unless they have specific permission from the US government. This effectively means that any transfer of technology, software, and associated agreements will be presumed as denied from the US government.

One of the critical companies which will be majorly affected and has been engaged in infrastructure projects such as ports development and highway construction would be China Communications Construction Company(CCCC) which has been involved in more than 80 projects across the world. These sanctions have been complimented with visa denial and restrictions on Chinese individuals who are responsible and are directly involved in the large-scale reclamation, construction, or incremental militarization in the disputed seas. The visa restrictions have been comprehensive, and includes individuals and their immediate families.

Following this US response to the Chinese island reclamation activities, NATO countries such as France and Germany have already outlined their Indo Pacific strategy and have try to take cognizance of the fact that island reclamation and militarization in the South China Sea would be detrimental to their interests in the region. The US sanctions on the Chinese companies would have comprehensive impact as many other nations which would be doing business with this companies would be apprehensive of collateral impact from US, in case they engage these companies in the long term projects in their countries.

Closely following the NATO partner Germany, the UK and France have also made a representation to the UN in the form of a note verbale submitted to the UN on 16th September on the developments in South China Sea. This buttresses the Malaysian representation made to the UN in December 2019 related to the commission on the limits of the continental shelf. This note verbal also reposes faith in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) as the framework under which the activities related to the oceans and the seas must be addressed.

The provisions of UNCLOS resonated under the PCA ruling on the issue of Philippines and China dispute related to contested islands in South China Sea. The PCA ruling had adjudicated that the UNCLOS should be the reference for resolving disputes related to maritime zones, territorial seas, and defining the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ)of the islands which are uninhabitable. Given the fact that France and the UK are the permanent members of the UN Security Council while Germany is a UNSCaspirant, this note verbalegains significance in the current context. This also reinforces the fact that Indo-pacific would be the epicenter of development in the region and in order to safeguard their interests the European countries cannot ignore intimidating tactics adopted by the China at the sea.

While it is understandable that France has a number of territories in the Indo-Pacific region which comprise more than 80 per cent of its total EEZ but Germany taking an anti-China stance shows shifting priorities. Germany foreign minister during press briefing has expressed that Germany would like to work together with the countries in the Indo Pacific region and would be a participant in the rules based order. The three countries -the UK, France, and Germany are critical in pressurizing China to adapt to the international regulations related to the law of the seas and must acknowledge that freedom of navigation, overflight, and the right of innocent passage are the legitimate rights of the littoral countries as well as extra regional powers which have trade and commercial interests in the region. The US has not acceded to the UNCLOS but the three countries have acceded to it. It is also seen as the fact that the US is trying to galvanize NATO countries in support of its initiatives and military deployments in the South China Sea. The three countries also have extensive business and trade interest in the region, and have trade relations with Korea, Japan and Taiwan. Therefore, increasing tensions in the South China Sea would increase their freight costs as well as insurance costs.  This would make their exports expensive and would affect the market dynamics.

The increasing resistance to Chinese assertive activities started in in December 2019 when Malaysia made a representation to the UN about the extended continental shelf. This has been supported by identical representations and statements made by littoral countries of South China Sea which included Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and even a public statement by Brunei. The US also made a strong rejoinder to the case and extended support on major issues that have been highlighted by the various countries include the issue of baselines, the low tide elevations of the rocks, islets and uninhabitable islands, and the issue of Chinese concocted history which is in contravention to the established international order.

In response to these submissions made by the three European countries, China has stated that it treats the UNCLOS as an established order but abhors its use as a political tool. Citing reservations to the UNCLOS, it has stated that it does not cover everything related to the maritime order. Citing paragraph 8 of the UNCLOS it has stated that “matters not regulated by this convention continue to be governed by the rules and principles of general international law”. This clearly means that China wants to derive new meaning which suits its own interests and reclamation activities in the South China Sea. The UNCLOS has made it very categorical that parties which have acceded to UNCLOS must comprehensively and correctly interpret the rule of the law of the seas. In its representation China has stressed that it has a long history, and the Chinese governments under different leaders have expressed their sovereign rights on the islands in the South China Sea. In the submission China has completely castigated the PCA ruling of July 2016, and stated that the sovereign rights of China on those disputed islands cannot be prejudiced by the illegal awards made under any arbitration or ruling .The biggest irony in the statement is the fact that it believes that UNCLOS  is not effective neither implementable in the context  of South China Sea but China claims that territorial baselines related to the islands and rocks are in conformity to the provisions of UNCLOS; clearly showing the dichotomy between  conditional acceptance and comprehensive selective utility.

The long response that China has made with regard to submission by the three European countries clearly highlights the fact that China is under pressure to accept legal provisions and maintain law and order at the sea. In the letter in response to these representations, China has made it very clear that it is making sincere efforts through friendly consultations with the ASEAN countries. The representation made by UK, Germany and France has brought about an international dimension to the whole issue. In total the number of countries which have raised objections to China’s reclamation activities have increased to more than 10 countries which have been seen as regional powers and have clout in the UN.

This also empowers Vietnam which is the current chair of ASEAN to undertake wide-ranging discussions on the topic during the summit meetings and in a way coerce China to undertake effective course correction measures. The hyperactivity which China has shown with regard to Taiwan, and military exercises in the South China Sea, have brought about international attention and raised serious concerns with regard to the developments in the region. The US exercises has been matched by China with undertaking surveillance sorties, scrambling of advanced fighter jets and infringing on EEZ of littoral countries. Therefore, it requires effective countermeasures as well as international condemnation of the Chinese activities. One can very well understand the fact that with China being at the receiving end of the international criticism in the wake of the coronavirus and subsequent domestic dissent shows that China would try to rake up hyper nationalism so as to protect President Xi from stigma. However, with majority of UNSC members expressing dissent the pathways for China are going to get tough in future.

Continue Reading

Southeast Asia

Uncreative Teachers: Online Learning Is Ineffective

Kevin Fallo

Published

on

Inevitably, Indonesia has to apply online learning (in the network) during the Covid-19 pandemic, this aims to anticipate the spread of the Covid-19 virus itself. However, there are still many problems in its implementation.

The problems found during online learning come from students, educators, and even the system itself. This causes the existing curriculum targets not to be achieved.

Curriculum

Based on the Decree of the Minister of Education and Culture of the Republic of Indonesia Number 719 / P / 2020 concerning Guidelines for Implementing Curriculum in Education Units in Special Conditions which was signed on August 4, 2020, it has the objective of providing flexibility for educational units to determine the curriculum according to the needs of students. However, it was reported from news.detik.com that the Minister of Education did not oblige to follow this emergency curriculum and provided 3 options, namely:

  1. Keep referring to the national curriculum
  2. Using an emergency curriculum
  3. To simplify the curriculum independently

Judging from the current situation, it is very difficult to follow and pursue the curriculum targets that are commonly used, therefore the next option is a very good option to run in the current online learning period. A simplification that does not make students stressed and can still focus on taking online learning.

Home Atmosphere & Student Psychology

Each student has a situation that is not the same as each other at home, different when students are in the same class, uniting them in one room and many individuals so that some problems at home can be forgotten for a moment and focus on learning.

In the classroom the teacher can pay attention to the psychology of each student and can apply special attention when one of the students experiences “problems” in the learning process. However, it is not fair if in online learning students are given the same demands while the teacher does not know how the psychology of each student is at his home.

Limited Access

One other big problem is the limited internet access, this can be affected by the internet network, internet quota, smartphone or other hardware. As a teacher, of course this kind of thing has been considered and made a more flexible learning policy, of course.

In practice, there are still teachers who do not understand this problem. Demanding students to be able to work on assignments in a matter of hours, this certainly makes students get pressure to be able to catch up on time within limitations.

Within these limitations it can cause negative attitudes to students, for example, such as students asking their parents to force their parents to buy quotas without understanding the economic conditions of the family, or students who even experience pressure due to inability in several matters related to online learning.

In this case, the teacher should give a long enough period of time for an assignment, giving time for students to meet the needs of access to online learning so that they can take part in this online teaching and learning process.

Creativity

Not only students are required to be creative in online learning, but teachers should also be creative in online learning to create a fun learning atmosphere.

Many cases occur in online learning so that it seems that the teacher is only limited to giving assignments at each meeting. Not without reason, this opinion was born in the community during the online learning period because generally that is the reality that happened in learning during the pandemic.

Teachers can use and take advantage of technology without having qualified skills in the technology field. The most important thing is the willingness and awareness to learn, unless the teacher doesn’t want to learn anymore. The existing limitations can be communicated by fellow teachers to create a creative breakthrough that can support this online learning.

There are many examples of the use of technology that can be used by teachers, one of which is the podcast through this media, students can listen to the teacher’s explanation anytime and anywhere, and of course listening to audio through podcasts is more efficient in using internet data.

To find out the understanding of the material in students, students can also repeat the material in their own style and then upload it into podcast media again. This does not only train students ‘understanding but also learners’ skills. Or teachers can use other means and methods to be able to teach in online learning.

Another example could be using an animaker, a website that creates simple animations that can be created to support learning to be more interesting. With animation media, of course this is more interesting than the powerpoints that are commonly used, especially during this learning period, powerpoints are generally distributed to students without further explanation.

Furthermore, there are many small problems that we see in the implementation of this online learning, one of which is the teacher who asks students to use whatsapp profile photos using personal photos, because previously the profile photos of students used photos of Korean idols. This can be used by the teacher to get closer to students and support learning by connecting learning with Korean idols.For example: In learning Indonesian, the teacher can ask students to make stories by including Korean idols as the main character.

The widespread use of Youtube, Tiktok, Instagram and other social media as a means of entertainment should be used by teachers to create creative learning. It is unfortunate if during this online learning period the teacher cannot create creative things which are of course useful for achieving the learning target itself. Rigid learning methods combined with heavy learning demands are a time bomb for students to be able to damage the psychology of the students themselves.

Continue Reading

Publications

Latest

Newsdesk1 hour ago

Ghana to Provide 550,000 People with Improved Water and Sanitation Services

The World Bank Board of Executive Directors today approved $125 million from the International Development Association for the Greater Accra...

Environment3 hours ago

Rosewood conservation: A success story from Madagascar

For Madagascar farmer Edmond, who goes by one name, it was a breakthrough. In 2019 he perfected a complicated technique...

Newsdesk4 hours ago

Measuring Stakeholder Capitalism: Top Global Companies Take Action on Universal ESG Reporting

The World Economic Forum today released a set of universal environmental, social and governance (ESG) metrics and disclosures to measure...

Defense5 hours ago

The Greek-Turkish Standoff: A New Source of Instability in the Eastern Mediterranean

Since 2011, Eastern Mediterranean affairs have mainly been marked by instability due to the civil wars in Libya and Syria....

Newsdesk6 hours ago

Two paths before Latin America: Democracy or dictatorship

The Latin American region is at a crossroads, with a choice not between the political left or the right; between...

Tourism7 hours ago

UNWTO Launches Comprehensive Tourism Recovery Tracker

As growing numbers of countries around the world ease restrictions on travel, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) has launched a...

South Asia9 hours ago

Pakistan’s War with COVID-19: A Victory for Now

From rethinking health care systems to the redefining of global movement and migration, the coronavirus has undoubtedly changed the world...

Trending