“Dialogando” (in dialogue) was back again this year in the beautiful city of Stintino, a coastal commune in the Province of Sassari in the Italian Island Sardinia. The municipality of the Italian city opened on December 4, 2015 in cooperation with the “Gulf Mediterranean Forum” the second edition of the Conference “Dialogando” discussing “the Humanitarian Crises in the Middle East: Solutions and Consequences”.
The conference featured participants from several countries in the Mediterranean region in search for solutions to the deepening terrorism crisis, which is claiming thousands of lives in the region.
Mr. Antonio Diana Mayor of Stintino opened the conference by welcoming the participants to his city and announcing his intention to create a “center for interfaith dialogue” in order to create a balanced dialogue between religions in order to find common ground in dealing with the aggravating refugee crisis on the one hand and the crisis of the terrorists on the other hand.
Mr. Diana concluded saying: “We wish to end a message from here, from Stintino, in an attempt to contribute to the solution of this crisis which we are all of suffering from.”
Dr. Hamzah Jammoul, researcher in conflict resolution and International relations and also one of the conference’s main organizers, stressed that “the crisis is a humanitarian crisis with political and legal dimensions”, proposing a number of questions: “What is the role of Italy in the face of this crisis? Is Italy’s role equivalent to that of China, Russia, and the US? Why did Italy do during the past years to contribute to the solution of this Mediterranean dilemma, especially for the Libyan and Syrian crisis?” Dr. Jammoul added that” Italy should assume a key role in the Mediterranean”, pointing out that this role should be of two parts, first to come up with a political framework to find a solution for the crisis in the affected countries and a second legal framework to find a solution to the influx of refugees to Europe and regularize their status.
Dr. Jammoul also pointed out to the ” absence of a clear vision on the issue of granting visas to refugees,” adding that “170 thousand refugees have arrived in Italy during the year 2015 where 450 thousand applied for asylum in Italy and the rest chose to move to other countries such as Germany and France, which indicated that Italy is also a transit country for these refugees”.
Meanwhile, Former Italian Minister of public instruction Mr. Luigi Berlinguer provided a different approach to the subject beginning with the need to “stop the terrorists by force, since the use of force in dealing with terrorists is part of the solution but it is not enough because they are in great numbers”. He also stressed that we should “rise up against this phenomenon … and we cannot allow history to write about our inability to find a solution to this humanitarian crisis.”
While Berlinguer called for an urgent solution to this crisis, he also pointing to the “the clash of interests between the rich and the poor.” He concluded by saying: “we have to find an immediate solution because the terrorists’ ability to recruit more is growing”.
For his part, Dr. Amer Al Sabaile, secretary general of the Mediterranean Gulf Forum, stressed that addressing the humanitarian crisis and reducing the phenomenon of asylum to Europe can only be part of a comprehensive plan to establish development and to fight terrorism. Within this framework, Dr. Al Sabaile highlighted that “counter-terrorism strategy cannot be a single strategy and bring about positive to this confrontation unless we have a unifying efforts rather than having multiple separated efforts. Confrontation with terrorism has reached a crucial stage that cannot be tolerated anymore, which requires a qualitative move towards bridging the gap between the international coalition and the Russian intervention, which has become a fait accompli and must be dealt with it according to the new political literature, which several US-led coalition member states are now dealing with on a reality basis”.
As for Mr. Henry Malosse, former president and member of the European Economic and social committee, he proposed the creation of a Mediterranean Union to follow up on the refugee crisis which concerns both the Arab Maghreb countries as well as the Middle East. Malosse also pointed out that with the deepening refugee crisis, the people of Europe have begun to lose confidence in their own governments, stressing that “the core of the crisis lies in the question: Are the European countries dealing with one another as a union? Or are they sustaining the notion of national sovereignty which is contrary to the concept of the Union?” He then pointed out that “Lebanon has received two million Syrian refugees while the total number of the Lebanese population is 4 million! If France would receive this percentage, the number of refugees in the French territory will be about 20 million refugees”, stressing the need to support the countries that host and receive the refugees.
For his part, the former Jordanian Information Minister Ali Alayed pointed out that the number of Refugees in his country amounted to twenty percent of the total population and that they live in a decent way and are engaged within the Jordanian society. The minister stressed that the Jordanian government is striving to ensure the needs of all refugees residing within its territory. He also called on Europe to play a greater role in order to find a radical solution, saying “we fight for peace and humanity…we fight for better conditions.”
Meanwhile, member of Italian Parliament and Foreign Affairs Committee in the Italian Parliament, Mariano Rabino that “a military solution cannot be the fundamental solution to the problem, but must be accompanied by a political solution,” stressing the need to “remove the Isis virus from Mosul and Raqqa”. He pointed to the existence of a problem “in the multifaceted European societies”, drawing attention to the fact that” those who are executing attacks in Europe should not be called upon as Arabs but on the contrary it should be noted that they had been brought up, received education and grew up in the European Environment”, concluding that “the problem is a social and cultural one, and the solution lies in the search for the roots of this problem”.
Ms. Elly Schlein, member of the European Parliament, for her part considered that “it is unfair to put the people escaping prison (refugees) in other prisons,” stressing the need to give them a margin of freedom. Schlein also called for “breaking down the network of smugglers who contribute to the deaths of hundreds per day out at sea” and continued to demand from the west “to stop their sale of arms which are ultimately used against us”. She finally concluded that “the time has come to put an end to policies that force us to buy oil from those who use the money to fund and support terrorists”.
On the same note, Dr. Hassan Jouni, professor of International Law, stressed that the West has to stop the exploitation of the wealth of the poor in the southern hemisphere while focusing on the need for a military intervention against terrorism because the political and negotiated solutions do not work with terrorists.
While, Dr. Sergio Giangregorio, president of the European center of orientation and studies, pointed to the close link between asylum and terrorism. He told a number of stories that he had heard from the refugees about the appalling conditions they experienced because of terrorists. He also drew attention to the large number of refugees who warned of the infiltration of terrorist into Europe under the pretext of humanitarian asylum.
He also said that “the goal of the arrival of these terrorists to Europe is to create radical movement of Islam”, holding Turkey the greater responsibility of asylum at sea and the infiltration of terrorists into Europe as well. He stressed that “the massacre of Paris proved that there is a center of evil in the world is planning to spread evil everywhere which has become an intellectual reference for these jihadists.”
Meanwhile, Admiral Mario Rino Me utilized his military experience in the Italian Navy to explain some of the details relating to the military and humanity aspects of the war on Syria. He said that the “Arab Spring awakened European countries, which expects to this spring to blossom freedoms”, noting however that “a vacuum of power produced by this spring was somewhat covered up by countries living within rival identities”. Admiral Rino Me concluded that “the surge of terrorism came along to initiate a sectarian conflict”, stressing that “what is going on has nothing to do religions and cultures, it’s rather linked to the issue of controlling the world.”
Gulf countries pivot towards Israel: Can Arab recognition be foresighted?
The visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Oman surprised the entire world and delivered a message of smoothening of relations between Oman and Israel. This event has marked the first ever visit by any Israeli leader to Oman in 22 years. The Israeli Prime Minister and the Sultan discussed ‘Ways to enhance the peace process in the Middle East’ as well as other issues of ‘joint interest’. For Netanyahu, a milestone was achieved in the form of Oman recognition of Israel as normalizing relations with fellow regional states is one of the important clause of Netanyahu’s policy. Moreover, an Israeli Minister Yisrael Katz attended an International Transport Conference in Oman and proposed a railway link to connect Persian Gulf with the Mediterranean Sea. However, the railway link isn’t confirmed yet, it was just proposed in the conference. In parallel, Israeli Culture and Sports Minister Miri Regev attended Abu Dhabi Grand Slam 2018 in United Arab Emirates, where for the first time in history the national anthem of Israel was played. Similar approach was adopted by Israel towards Qatar. These changing dynamics can foresight the future of Gulf politics, that is, gulf countries can align with Israel to counter the influence of Iran in the region and for this purpose gulf countries may recognize Israel.
An important thing to notice is that the countries smoothening their relations with Israel are members of GCC, where Saudi Arabia is at the top of hierarchy- the major decision maker in Middle East- which means without Saudi Arabia’s willingness and its interests, GCC countries cannot take such a big decision. Now here a question arises, why would Saudi Arabia allow this approach?
The main reasons are; firstly, the crown prince Mohammad Bin Salman have cordial relations with Israel’s top leadership and he(MBS) is seen as a potential ally by Israel in Middle East, the major reason why Israel demanded US to side by Saudi Arabia in Khashoggi murder case. Second, it would be very difficult for Saudi Arabia- the self-proclaimed leader of the Sunni Muslim world- to recognize Israel while other states in the region still oppose the existence of a Jewish state in Middle East. Recognition of Israel by other GCC countries would make it far easier for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel or at least to melt ice. Lastly, the Khashoggi murder case have already deteriorated the international image of Saudi Arabia, at this point of time the country cannot afford to bear another blame as Muslim countries think it would be injustice to Palestinians if Israel is recognized.
So will Saudi Arabia follow the suit and recognize Israel? The question still remains ambiguous, but since Saudi Arabia haven’t opposed these action of GCC countries and a continuous diplomatic support from Israel to Saudi Arabia have been visible although both countries do not have diplomatic relations, it can be predicted that something is going on, between both of these states which they have chosen not to disclose now. Coming to Qatar, since Qatar is also involved in this process of developing diplomatic relations with Israel, it can prove to be a catalyst in the troubled Saudi/Qatar relations as helping Saudi Arabia to develop relations with Israel while other Arab states are doing the same can lift up the entire blame from Saudi Arabia. Maybe the sanctions over Qatar will be lifted or just become less intensified. Qatar sees it as an opportunity to regain the similar status in the region as well as to reconstruct relations with the other Arab countries.
Turkish Newspaper Implicates UAE’s Crown Prince in Covering Up Murder of Khashoggi
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, and UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, are close friends and allies, who jointly lead the war against Houthi-led Yemen. On Sunday afternoon, November 18th, a leading Turkish newspaper, Yeni Şafak, reported the two leaders to have also collaborated in hiding the murder on October 2nd in Istanbul of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.
Yeni Şafak headlined “Dahlan ‘cover-up team’ from Lebanon helps hide traces of Khashoggi murder” and reported that on October 2nd, “A second team that arrived in Istanbul to help cover-up the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was dispatched by Muhammed Dahlan, UAE Crown Prince Muhammed bin Zayed’s chief hitman in the region, … according to an informed source who spoke to Yeni Şafak daily on the condition of anonymity.”
On November 16th, the Washington Post had headlined “CIA concludes Saudi crown prince ordered Jamal Khashoggi’s assassination”.
Bin Salman and bin Zayed are U.S. President Donald Trump’s closest foreign allies other than, possibly, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. All four men are determined that there be regime-change in Shiite Iran. This anti-Shia position bonds them also against the Houthis, who are Shiites, in Yemen, where bin Salman and bin Zayed lead the war, and the United States provides the training, logistics, and weapons. Both bin Salman and bin Zayed are fundamentalist Sunnis who are against Shia Muslims. Israel and the United States are allied with these two princes. Saudi Arabia’s royal family have been committed against Shia Muslims ever since 1744 when the Saud family made a pact with the fundamentalist Sunni preacher Mohammed ibn Wahhab, who hated Shia Muslims. Thus, Saudi Arabia is actually Saudi-Wahhabi Arabia, with Sauds running the aristocracy, and Wahhabists running the clergy.
In 2017, in Saudi Arabia’s capital of Riyadh, Trump sold, to the Saudi Crown Prince, initially, $350 billion of U.S.-made weapons over a ten-year period (the largest weapons-sale in world history), and $110 billion in just the first year. That deal was soon increased to $404 billion. For Trump publicly to acknowledge that Salman had “ordered Jamal Khashoggi’s assassination” would jeopardize this entire deal, and, perhaps, jeopardize the consequent boom in America’s economy. It also would jeopardize the U.S. alliance’s war against Shiites in Yemen.
Revisiting the Qatari crisis
In 2017 the dispute between Qatar and a number of its neighbours Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE and Oman has considered as the most serious crisis since years and could escalate in the future to destabilise an already turbulent region. The Qatari support to the extremist parties and terrorist entities in the region is the apparent reason, however, conflicting of interest between Qatar and the other states about the Iranian relations, the political Islam and the competition over the regional leadership are the main reasons. Egypt, Oman and the UAE with the leadership of Saudi Arabia withdrawing diplomats, closing borders, announcing a number of Qatari citizens as terrorist supporters and place an embargo on Qatar and most of its interests and businesses in the region.
The primary reason for the Saudi’s camp blockade is the Qatari politically and financially support for violent extremist groups often affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood which considers as a real threat for the other GCC states in particular because of the ability of these group to create a secretive organisation with extreme religious behaviour. However, Qatar is relatively weaker in terms of politically and militarily than the Saudi’s camp, but it has continued to support its Islamist allies for many reasons: ideological sympathy; a believe that political Islam could reflect into Qatar’s influence in the region; a desire to challenge the traditional regional influence especially Saudi Arabia and its followers. In addition, Qatar has used its owned media tool the Aljazeera channel to magnify the Muslim Brotherhood influence and to criticise leaders in Cairo, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi which has been the major thorn in the relations.
The Qatari-Iranian close tie is the second source of tension which seen by other GCC states as a threat to the stability and even the existence of the Sunni majority states in the Gulf. The growing Qatari Iranian relation is evident in many occasions such as the Qatari voting against the UNSC resolution that calling on Iran to stop its nuclear enrichment project and the signing of Qatari Iranian agreement in counterterrorism cooperation which is a Qatar approach to benefit from the Iranian forces due to the modest Qatari military capability. Moreover, the Amir of Qatar called the Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and congratulated him on his re-election on April 2017. Finally, Qatar paid the amount of $700 for Kataab Hezbollah Iraq (Iranian baked militia) for the exchange of a member of the Qatari royal family who has been a hostage in Iraq, (probably falsely) was the act that irritated most of the GCC states and triggering the crisis.
The Trump’s administration policy in the region gives Riyad, Cairo and Abu Dhabi the green light to punish Qatar for its support to the Islamic movement. Trump expressed a passive acceptance to the Saudi and its allies in an attempt to contain the greedy Iranian strategy in the region and to confront the rising of the radical Islam. However, it seems that Saudi and its allies are unqualified for such a containment scheme to Iran the giant regional power. Trump also took credit on Twitter and describe the Qatari Amir as “high-level founder of terrorism.” Thus, the blockade can see as an attempt from the Saudi’s camp to push Qatar back to the line, an opportunity to satisfy their allies in Washington and to shift the public opinion to the Qatari issues instead of many internal issues and shortcoming.
The crisis involved a number of unpredictable stakeholders with huge interests in the region which could turn the situation into uncontrollable in many ways. The blockade camp clearly desires that Qatar recognise how serious they are, rapidly back to the line and admit unambiguously their list of demands which include shutting down Aljazeera, end the cooperating with Iran, stop supporting the Islamic parties and recognise the Saudi leadership in the GCC region. On the other hand, Qatar with its relatively small population 300,000 citizens and fund over $300 billion ensures the state will never face a serious financial issue in the future. Moreover, Qatar is the home of the U.S. air base Al-Udeid which is a critical component of the U.S. campaign in the Middle East. Therefore, Qatar knows that the U.S. has an immediate interest in emphasising the stability and the security in Qatar in particular while the U.S. does not have an alternative to Al-Udeid base to support its strategy in the Middle East. The Saudi’s camp is unlikely to abandon their demands. The crisis shows how much the GCC leaders are threatening and in a confusing situation toward support specific radical Islam movements and relation with Iran. In addition, the blockade camp can maintain the sanctions for a long time rather than take a military action due to its economic cost and the lack of suitable capabilities to conduct such a war. For instance, the Saudi campaign in Yemen now and after three years, shows a significant failure to achieve its strategic goals.
The current situations for both sides show that the crisis could easily continue for more years which is a critical concern to all the stakeholders in the region. Now Iran and Turkey are playing a significant role in supporting Qatar needs of foods and goods to minimise the inconvenient of the embargo. Also, Ankara is considering enhancing its military presence in Qatar which seen as a direct threat to Saudi Arabia the major regional compotator for the Turkish influence. That also shows a high possibility of an Iranian Turkish large-scale involvement in case of a military confrontation.
The U.S. mission should focus on balancing the support to the Gulf States and their core interests as well as supporting the stability by avoiding encouraging them from adopting a risky diplomatic offensives options that can backfire into the whole region. It seems that the U.S. should adopt nuanced diplomacy to end the crisis which is not that simple for the current U.S. administration. Since the conflicting parties of this crisis will not likely find a comprehensive solution on their own, the U.S. should make it a priority to help them do so before the costs of the dispute continue to escalate in unpredictable ways.
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