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Future Foreign Policies: Possibilities Facing Iran

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Iran’s foreign policy continues to be driven by a series of complex and often times overlapping and contradictory factors, involving its own ideological pursuits, the perception of threats caused by the US and its allies, national identity, and a belief in its historical right to regional hegemony.

These policies are also molded by the various factions within the Iranian domestic ruling elite, comprised of the leadership of the Ayatollah Khamenei, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, President Rouhani, and other key reformist figures.

The foreign policies created are then applied in a number of manners throughout the region that are based on its own strategic interests. The methods employed range from direct funding of militant proxy groups such as Hezbollah, diplomatic means via its numerous embassies around the world, and other methods such as Islamic training and education centers. The methods of application and the strategic reasoning behind these policies have been a source of intense scrutiny and conflict for many states around the world. This has ultimately been the reason behind many of the punitive measures applied to Iran.

For countries within the region, Iran’s perceived quest for regional hegemony has led to the majority of tensions, Saudi Arabia being foremost among them. Saudi Arabia has long accused Iran of trying to spread its religious ideology around the region in order to become the de facto “head” of the Muslim world. Iran, conversely, claims that Saudi Arabia also is attempting to assert its own brand of Sunni Islam and to subjugate Shi’i populations in Sunni-led states. This has led both states to take especially hardline stances against the other and has led to a number of proxy fights between the two.

Iran’s policy of supporting militant groups throughout the region also continues to be a major concern to states both within the region and beyond. Groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen enjoy considerable support financially and militarily from Iran and have been major players in Iran’s proxy wars. Iran, interestingly enough, has not solely supported Shi’i groups but has also shown a willingness to support groups that support its core interests, such as with Hamas in its confrontations against Israel. Currently these policies pay dividends for Iran as in most locations it has a strategic upper hand, as in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. It is unlikely that Iran would be keen to end such an advantage. But it must for a greater global future.

Where does Iran head next in its quest to regain its place at the world table and to once again be an accepted nation within the global community? The nuclear accord and the subsequent lifting, or easing, of international sanctions will go a long way in determining the courses of action that Iran might take. Regardless of whether the sanctions are fully lifted or simply eased, Iran’s economy stands to improve dramatically. If Iran follows through on the terms of the agreement, then its standing in the world order will also improve dramatically. This new standing, coupled with the increase of foreign interest in investing in Iran, will also bring challenges as Iran struggles to develop the trust it needs to renew and/or improve international relationships.

This is one area that Iran needs to focus on. If its leaders are able to find ways to improve relations with Western nations, then that will allow it to reduce its fears of armed conflict and will allow for new partnerships greatly benefiting the general population. Another area that Iran could find improvement would be in developing joint energy ventures within the Caspian region. With its strengthening relations with Russia it could potentially leverage that relationship to forge partnerships in the region much in the same way that China and Japan have done. Joint partnerships would reduce the perception within the region that Iran is attempting to assert its dominance independently.

Iran and Saudi Arabia need to continue to work diplomatically to reduce their mistrust and misconstrued perceptions of one another. One potential item for the agenda should be Yemen. Yemen does not appear to be a dispute that has any core value to Iran outside of it being a target of opportunity to create havoc in the region and threaten Sunni hegemony. Given that this does not seem to be of true strategic value to Iran, it is possible that it could work diplomatically with Saudi Arabia toward conflict resolution that might ease the fears of the GCC states in a post-JCPOA world. Additionally, Iran should seek to resolve its longstanding conflicts with its GCC neighbors over issues such as the islands of Abu Musa and the Tunbs.

The largest hurdle for Iran to overcome within the region is the fear of Sunni-states that it will continue to support proxy groups against them, trying to foment uprisings within said states. Many of these issues can only be lessened by the passage of time where there is an indication of new trust. It is also possible that Iran may not want to effect change in this area. Given the very structure of Iranian leadership, change is oftentimes slow if not glacial. The complex web of the domestic political machine in Tehran is not geared toward change but rather is built to ensure the dominance of status quo.

If Iran could implement these changes to the way it conducts its foreign policies around the globe it could well be on its way to building the trust needed for the global community to accept it back into the fold as a full and productive member. The world must believe that Iran is a country willing to abide by its international agreements and does not pose a threat to other nations within the region and beyond. But this future is dependent on both Iran and its Gulf neighbors accepting that their own mutually interactive policies have been collectively responsible for the problems now facing the region. They must all work to make the internal adjustments necessary to ensure that a lasting peace is possible. Otherwise, the entire world will have to remember that the ‘status quo’ ultimately just translates into more conflict, more mistrust, and more suffering.

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Middle East

US-Iran Tension: Avert any big disaster to humanity

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US-Iran tension is growing to a dangerous level. Irrespective of who is right and who is wrong, but everyone agrees that it is leading toward a big disaster. Human life and natural resources are at stake. Irrespective, who will suffer more and who will suffer less, but it is human life, which is the most precious thing in this world, is at stake.

Middle-East is an oil and gas-rich area and meets the major portion of world energy demand. Any disturbance in this region will have a severe impact on the global economy. Whether one is right or wrong, will be the victim of this crisis directly or indirectly.

This war will be not like the Iraq war or the Libya War. As at that time, there was only one superpower and the world was unipolar. There was no resistance from any corner of the world. US and allies, without any resistance, conducted the war and achieved their desired results. But a lot of resistance was witnessed in case of Syrian War. The whole scenario has been changed, the calculated results were not achieved yet. Finally, the US has decided to pull back its troops. Similarly, Afghanistan case is not ideal, after spending trillion dollars, and fighting for 17 years, not gains on the ground and finally has to pull back.

It may not be limited to only US-Iran but may engulf the whole region. As traditional rivals are waiting for an appropriate opportunity to settle their old disputes. Whether, it is Arab-Iran, or Israel-Iran, or Arab-Israel enmity, may it spread to a much wider sphere than expected. It is in control of a few countries to start or refrain the escalation, but once it has been broken, it may be beyond the control of either country.

Especially, Russia and China are not sleeping at this time. They are in a strong position to offer resistance. It should not be taken an easy task like Iraq or Libya war. It is difficult to predict the exact reaction of Russia or China, but anticipated resistance.

If we expect, US or Iran to avert this foreseeable war will be not a realistic approach. As if they were to avoid any disaster, they should not have created so hype and should not have moved to this stage. They may not accept total hegemony of the US in this part of the world. They have heavy stakes in the middle-East and cannot be spectators only.

Geopolitics has been changed, regional alliances have emerged, and nations have re-aligned themselves. Much more complex changes have been witnessed after the war on terror. Public awareness has been enhanced, maybe some of the governments in this region have a different outlook, but public opinion is much more realistic and may play a vital role in the days to come. Old time’s friends may stand on the other side of the table. Some radical changes may be visible on grounds.

UN role was ineffective in the past and a little is expected in the future. In fact, the UN has been hijacked and curtailed to a very limited role practically. While one of its major mandates was to resolve the disputes among nations and avoid wars or war-like situations.

Under this serious scenario, there is a hope that all peace-loving nations and individuals, may peruse the UN and International Community do something to avert this bid human disaster.  We all share one world, we have the responsibility to save this world. Any loss of human life in any part of the world is considered the loss to the whole of humanity. And the destruction of natural resources may be considered a loss to humanity. Any damage to Environment or ecology or biodiversity may be a net loss to humanity. We all are son and daughter of ADAM and share a common world, common environment, common resources. We need to protect humanity, environment and natural resources.

It is strongly appealed to the UN, International Community and all individuals who believe in Peace, must act, and must act now, and must act strongly, to avert any bid disaster to humanity.

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Middle East

Chinese purchases of Iranian oil raise tantalizing questions

Dr. James M. Dorsey

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A fully loaded Chinese oil tanker ploughing its way eastwards from two Iranian oil terminals raises questions of how far Beijing is willing to go in defying US sanctions amid a mounting US military build-up in the Gulf and a US-China trade war.

The sailing from Iran of the Pacific Bravo takes on added significance with US strategy likely to remain focused on economic rather than military strangulation of the Iranian leadership, despite the deployment to the Gulf of an aircraft carrier strike group as well as B-52 bombers and a Patriot surface-to-air missile system.

As President Donald J. Trump, backed by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, appears to be signalling that he is not seeking military confrontation, his administration is reportedly considering a third round of sanctions that would focus on Iran’s petrochemical industry. The administration earlier this month sanctioned the country’s metals and minerals trade.

The sailing raises the question whether China is reversing its policy that led in the last quarter of 2018 to it dramatically reducing its trade with Iran, possibly in response to a recent breakdown in US-Chinese trade talks.

“The question is whether non-oil trade remains depressed even if some oil sales resume, which I think it will. That’s the better indicator of where Chinese risk appetite has changed. Unfortunately Iran‘s reprieve will be limited—but better than zero perhaps,” tweeted Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, head of Bourse & Bazaar, a self-described media and business diplomacy company and the founder of the Europe-Iran Forum.

A Chinese analyst interviewed by Al Jazeera argued that “China is not in a position to have Iran’s back… For China, its best to stay out” of the fray.

The stakes for China go beyond the troubled trade talks. In Canada, a senior executive of controversial Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei is fighting extradition to the United States on charges of violating US sanctions against Iran.

Reports that Western companies, including Kraft Heinz, Adidas and Gap, wittingly or unwittingly, were employing Turkic Muslims detained in re-education camps in China’s north-western province of Xinjiang, as part of opaque supply chains, could increase attention on a brutal crackdown that China is struggling to keep out of the limelight.

The Trump administration has repeatedly criticized the crackdown but has stopped short of sanctioning officials involved in the repressive measures.

Bourse & Bazaar’s disclosure of the sailing of the Pacific Bravo coincided with analysis showing that Iran was not among China’s top three investment targets in the Middle East even if Chinese investment in the region was on the rise.

The Pacific Bravo was steaming with its cargo officially toward Indonesia as Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was touring his country’s major oil clients, including China, in a bid to persuade them to ignore US sanctions.

A second tanker, the Marshal Z, was reported to have unloaded 130,000 tonnes of Iranian fuel oil into storage tanks near the Chinese city of Zhoushan.

The Marshall Z was one of four ships that, according to Reuters, allegedly helped Iran circumvent sanctions by using ship-to-ship transfers in January and forged documents that masked the cargoes as originating from Iraq.

The unloading put an end to a four-month odyssey at sea sparked by buyers’ reticence to touch a cargo that would put them in the US crosshairs.

“Somebody in China decided that the steep discount this cargo most likely availed … was a bargain too good to miss,” Matt Stanley, an oil broker at StarFuels in Dubai, told Reuters.

The Pacific Bravo, the first vessel to load Iranian oil since the Trump administration recently refused to extend sanction exemptions to eight countries, including China, was recently acquired by China’s Bank of Kunlun.

The acquisition and sailing suggested that Bank of Kunlun was reversing its decision last December to restrict its business with Iran to humanitarian trade, effectively excluding all other transactions.

The bank was the vehicle China used in the past for business with Iran because it had no exposure to the United States and as a result was not vulnerable to US sanctions that were in place prior to the 2015 international agreement that curbed Iran’s nuclear program.

China’s willingness to ignore, at least to some extent, US sanctions could also constitute an effort to persuade Iran to remain fully committed to the nuclear accord which it has so far upheld despite last year’s US withdrawal.

Iran recently warned Europe that it would reduce its compliance if Europe, which has struggled to create a credible vehicle that would allow non-US companies to circumvent the sanctions, failed to throw the Islamic republic an economic lifeline.

In a letter that was also sent to Russia and China, Iran said it was no longer committed to restrictions on the storage of enriched uranium and heavy water stocks, and could stop observing limits on uranium enrichment at a later stage.

Russian president Vladimir Putin warned in response to the Iranian threat that “as soon as Iran takes its first reciprocal steps and says that it is leaving, everyone will forget by tomorrow that the US was the initiator of this collapse. Iran will be held responsible, and the global public opinion will be intentionally changed in this direction.”

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Middle East

The Iran Question

Dr. Arshad M. Khan

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Will there be war with Iran?  Will there not be war with Iran?  The questions are being asked repeatedly in the media even though a single carrier task force is steaming up there.  The expression is old for the latest carriers are nuclear powered.  Imagine the mess if it was blown up.

There are two kinds of weapons in the world … offensive and defensive.  The latter are cheaper, a fighter plane compared to a bomber.  If a country does not (or cannot afford to) have offensive intent, it makes sense to focus on defense.  It is what Iran has done.  Moreover, its missile centered defense has a modern deadly twist — the missiles are precision-guided. 

As an Iranian general remarked when questioned about the carrier task force:  some years ago it would’ve been a threat he opined; now it’s a target.  Iran also has a large standing army of 350,000 plus a 120,000 strong Revolutionary Guard and Soviet style air defenses.  In 2016 Russia started installation of the S-300 system.  It has all kinds of variants, the most advanced, the S-300 PMU-3 has a range similar to the S-400 if equipped with 40N6E missiles, which are used also in the S-400.  Their range is 400 km, so the Iranian batteries are virtually S-400s.  The wily Putin has kept trump satisfied with the S-300 moniker without short-changing his and China’s strategic ally.  The latter continuing to buy Iranian oil.

Iran has friends in Europe also.  Angela Merkel in particular has pointed out that Iran has complied fully with the nuclear provisions of the UN Security Council backed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action i.e. the Iran nuclear deal.  She is mustering the major European powers.  Already alienated with Trump treating them as adversaries rather than friends, they find Trump’s bullying tiresome.  President Macron, his poll ratings hitting the lowest, is hardly likely to engage in Trump’s venture.  In Britain, Theresa May is barely able to hold on to her job.  In the latest thrust by senior members of her party, she has been asked to name the day she steps down.

So there we have it.  Nobody wants war with Iran.  Even Israel, so far without a post-election government does not want to be rained upon by missiles leaky as its Iron Dome was against homemade Palestinian rockets.

Topping all of this neither Trump nor Secretary of State Pompeo want war.  Trump is as usual trying to bully — now called maximum pressure — Iran into submission.  It won’t.  The wild card is National Security Adviser John Bolton.  He wants war.  A Gulf of Tonkin type false flag incident, or an Iranian misstep, or some accident can still set it off. 

In Iran itself, moderates like current President Hassan Rouhani are being weakened by Trump’s shenanigans.  The hard liners might well want to bleed America as happened in Iraq and Afghanistan.

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