In the wake of Turkey’s recent election – supposedly fraught with corruption and fraud – and amid some of the worst violent outbreaks it has seen in years, many find themselves anxious over the country’s future.
The fighting between Turkey’s security forces and Kurdish rebels has killed thousands of people. Even though claimed by the Islamic State terrorist organization, two massive suicide bombings that occurred recently at a pro-Kurdish rally have increased tensions between Turks and Kurds. The instability in neighboring Syria and Iraq, combined with the refugee crisis spilling into Europe, is making things even worse. To add insult to injury, Turkey’s economy is slowing and its private sector is losing revenue from decreased tourism. All of this is what leads to a refocused emphasis on Turkish interests and the Greater Caspian region. While not one of the Caspian littorals, it seems likely that Turkey is going to remain a major player in the region because of its own internal stresses. Whether those stresses push its influence in a positive or negative direction remains to be seen.
Turkey is in all senses of the term a modern nation: it is an important member of NATO and would be a member of the European Union if opponents had not prevented it. Over time, it has cultivated important strategic alliances with neighbors in Asia and the Middle East. These partnerships and Turkey’s geographic position – a location that flanks many troublesome regions – makes it a very important ally. It also seems to be the primary conduit for almost all energy plans stemming from the Caspian region and heading to Europe. Its presence helps balance the more militant regimes found in the area and serves as an important site for NATO actions. The country has a strict secular policy that has helped fend off more aggressive Islamic regimes. However, there are still many Turks that would prefer a more Islamic identity for the country. They believe a revival of the golden days of the Ottoman dynasty is possible with Turkey as the seat of a new Islamic caliphate. Yet there are others that recognize that the fall of the empire was a direct result of stagnant ideas and corrupt actions. As a result of this conflicting debate, the nation finds itself swaying back and forth between Western and Islamic culture. This is reflected in Turkey’s dealings with both its regional and international partnerships.
In the early years of the 20th century, as long as Turkey remained true to its plans of building a Westernized society in matters of foreign policy, the country was considered an ally of Western nations. It was a bulwark against Soviet designs in the Middle East. Despite its mistreatment of the Kurds, the resounding calls of pro-Islamic militants who preached the need to turn away from the West, and the subsequent postponement of EU membership, Turkey’s membership in NATO and intentions to join the European Economic Community were evidence of its desires to become an important fixture for a modern global community. Even today, Turkey is considered an indispensable partner in dealing with the misconduct of the Islamic State, the Syrian civil war, Russian movement in the region, and the developing migrant crisis.
Today, Turkey’s major interests have also shifted to include the changing geopolitics of Eurasia. The Caspian region, an essential link between Central Asia and Turkey, has grown in importance as a source of energy. Its relationships with Russia, Iran, Central Asia, and the Caucasus are opening up new opportunities for Turkey both politically and economically. And while Turkey does stand to gain much politically with these new relations, its policy has so far been almost solely motivated by economic development. Turkish leaders believe, however, that its gains in terms of energy will not only help its own internal development but will also serve to promote stability across the Greater Caspian, decreasing the incidents of rivalry and conflict in the region. In some ways Turkey justifiably sees the Caspian as the most obvious foothold for itself and increasing global stature, especially as the tension increases in the region between the United States and Russia.
While multilateralism and cooperation with the West still largely dominate Turkish diplomacy in areas like the Caspian, there are concerns about Turkey’s relationship with Islamism and the Middle East and what that could do to the region if problems emerge internally. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the head of Turkey’s Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP), is seen as the key to the country’s political and economic stability – not only for Turkey but also for the entire Middle East. Unfortunately, this latest election may have served to undermine the secular social order and that key may now be a negative one. Disconcertingly, Erdoğan’s very character has been brought into question after the elections. Since the revival of Islamism in the Middle East and the events that unfolded from the Arab Spring in 2011, Erdoğan has been caricatured as a tyrant with unrivaled executive powers that may be used to slowly abolish some of the important gains Turkey has made over the decades. Worries about regression abound. Erdoğan’s AK party, now the dominant Sunni identity in the country, has been cracking down on anyone that opposes it. With arrests, confiscations, and violence, Turkey’s system is starting to look like those found in Russia, Venezuela and other ‘democracies’ that have no tolerance for dissidence or civil disobedience.
Erdogan’s administration – not so long ago praised as an example of a modern Islamic democracy – is quickly becoming one that appeals to Islamists who wish to wage war against what they see as a godless secular system imported by the West. While it would not be fair to lump Turkey’s Islamists in with fanatical groups like DAESH it is important to recognize their potential to implement practices and rules that are so restrictive that they threaten to completely overhaul Turkey’s legal and educational systems. Because of Turkey’s importance in the region, this could mean further upsetting the regional balance in the Middle East and possibly even the Caspian. Most assuredly, Russia would stand against a rising Turkey in the Caspian region if radical Islamic tendencies were seen emerging within its political system at home.
While it may not yet be time to panic – due to a significant secular-nationalist Turkish population that remains resistant to the rise of Islamism – the outcome of the recent events surrounding Turkey’s recent elections could have a serious impact on Turkey’s current system that promises to protect everyday Turkish social rights and liberties. They may also facilitate negative global repercussions. Turkey’s rising importance in the greater Caspian region has been slowly building for the last decade. It would be a shame to see ancient internal dilemmas cause that progress to be postponed or destroyed.
