Russia after October 1, aiming to support the Assad regime, is carrying out military operations on ISIS and the other opposition forces. Such a development has created a serious concerning the Middle East from the view point of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey.
This situation is contrary to Turkey’s Syrian policy based on Assad’s leaving power that it has been carrying on continually for almost four years. The existing circumstance in the area brings Turkey closer to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as it does Moscow, Tehran, Bagdad, Damascus and the Kurdish movements. Such a balance of power complicates the solution of the Syrian problem and had adverse impact on Moscow-Ankara relations especially on October 4-5-6 due to border violations of Russian military planes.
The strategic affiliation Turkey has established since 2012 with Muslim Brothers and Qatar and the policies to design the region accordingly have been altered in 2014 with the new king in Saudi Arabia. The fact that Muslim Brothers lost Egypt and its failure to be effective in Syria have forced Erdogan to seek new cooperation possibilities in the Arab World. Especially following the agreement on nuclear issues between US and Iran, Turkey was forced to ally with the Sunni countries. His several visits to Saudi Arabia prior to Russian interference in Syria and improvement in relations with the Gulf countries, helped Turkey’s convergence policies on the Syrian issue. It is important to perceive Russia’s latest military interference in this context. Namely, Russia was recently uncomfortable about the opposition forces, backed by Saudi Arabia, Arab Emirates and Turkey, progressing toward areas under Assad regime’s control. As a result of dialogues between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries, the opposition groups in Syria could merge and gain strength. These developments threatening Russian military presence in Syria have forced Moscow to openly defend Assad. A military move in Syria was essential to counter these proceedings as well as to save Russia from international isolation. Lack of direct intervention from the USA, despite all these developments in the region, helped Moscow take advantage of the gap formed.
It is possible that Russia may be alienated by siding with the Arab countries or with Turkey. In order to prevent being pulled into the regional anti-Sunni equation, Russia is continuing its dialogue with Egypt and is trying hard to get Egypt on his side. But this is not expected to be successful. It could be a very dangerous game for the Egyptian President Sisi, who came to power with a coup. It was Saudi Arabia that provided the greatest support in bringing Sisi to power. Both the US and the EU allowed this to happen. If Sisi gets into this game with Putin, it is a great possibility that he will be toppled by Muslim Brothers and Salafis again.
The Russian military operation seems to proceed in two directions. First is air strikes on the South-Western parts of opposition group in Syria and operations against ISIS to ensure the existence of Assad’s regime. Here we should take into consideration the feeling that there has been an exchange of information between Russia and Turkey prior to these operations. Before the start of operations Erdogan visited Moscow to open a Mosque. According to information infiltrated from these meetings, Russia has informed Turkey on the joint military quarters they had established with Iran, Iraq and the Assad regime against ISIS and proposed Turkey to take part in it. Second is that they have agreed on a transition period under the leadership of Assad. Third is I think that Turkey has been given an important guarantee regarding the Kurdish Issue? This was that there will no Kurdish corridor formed from North to South in Western Syria.
After his visit to Russia, Erdogan stated that a transition period may be possible with Assad. Also the diplomatic sources rendered the fact that a proposal was made by Russia to Turkey to join the military quarters. For this reason, on the first days of the operations Turkey has expressed its discomfort only by diplomatic language. Later when Russia has directed its air attacks against the opposition forces, it became hysterical. It is evident that the Turkish side was not expecting this.
Turkey’s continued presence in Syria depends on the existence of the opposition forces it supports. With Russia’s elimination of these forces, Turkey will be out of the battlefield. A development like this will weaken Turkey’s hand at the table on its cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries related to Syrian issues.
Russian Interference in Syria and Turkey
Turkey’s discomfort on the matter is felt clearly. Such a development would mean a total failure of the Turkish Syrian policy. For Turkey to save its position in the Middle East equation, it has to continue dialogues with the Gulf Emirates and Saudi Arabia as well as maintain its strength on the battlefield. This is also a strong instrument in its negotiations with US and EU on Syrian issues.
As we have observed on Geneva I. and II. told, Russia always by-passes Turkey, as much as it can, when negotiating Syrian issues with USA. This time because it has no direct relation with US and EU, Russia is by-passing Turkey on the battlefield in order to strongly pressure Ankara into accepting his own conditions.
Turkey, in order to by-pass Russia and actually prevent Russia’s emergence from international isolation on Syrian issues, has to change its attitude toward Moscow this time. This means that Turkey ends the cooperation among the two countries regarding the Turkish Stream Project and the power plants and must join the policies followed by US and EU on Crimean issues. Actually Turkey didn’t take part in the economic sanctions of the western countries against Russia. As a matter of fact its wish was to penetrate the Russian markets more deeply. It is known that the Turkish companies’ investment in Russia is over 10 billion US dollars. We can say that in the first 7 months of 2015, the total trading volume between the two countries has decreased by 21,5% and dropped to 14,4 billion US dollars.
According to some, the reason why the Turkish Stream treaty has not been signed yet is the failure of Russia’s signing the promised %10.25 price reduction agreement. Since reaching an agreement on gas prices transmitted by the South Stream Project, Turkey wishes the Turkish Stream treaty to be evaluated separately. Russia, however, favors discussing the 10.25 percent reduction in gas prices to be paired with the Turkish Stream Project. The aim of Turkey, in this case, is to bring different terms to the negotiation table concerning the new line. Turkey wants guarantees not to relive the stress of “buy or pay” articles of previous gas agreements with this new pipeline project. However, the Turkish side has already reached an agreement within the scope of the Turkish Stream Project, with Russia, upon two of the total of four pipelines crossing underneath the Black Sea. The four pipelines together have a total export capacity of 63 billion cubic meters of gas. The capacity of the permitted two pipelines is 15.75 billion cubic meters. The aim is to utilize the gas from these lines mainly in the Turkish domestic market.
After all these developments, on October 6, the yearly capacity of the Turkish Stream gas line has been diminished from 63 billion cubic meters to 32 billion cubic meters by the decision of Russian energy company, Gazprom. It has been noted that with this decision the Russian-Turkish relations have declined even more. Actually Turkey is not in a position to risk its economic relations with Russia and both energy and economic relations with Moscow are of great importance for Turkey.
Therefore it is not possible for Turkey to take any harsh measures against Russia at present, since any such action can also seriously affect the November 1st general elections. The vulnerability of the Turkish Lira against the US dollar can increase. Due to all this, the prediction is that without support from USA, Turkey’s hand will grow weaker in Syrian policies and it will be left out of the field.
It is expected that Erdogan will continue his convergence policy with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries as before the Russian operations in Syria. As the leader of the Sunni bloke in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia together with Turkey wants them to stop soon. Keeping in mind the fact that the decisions on Turkish foreign policy are taken not by Erdogan but the National Security Council, after November 1 elections, in case of a CHP (Republican People’s Party)-AKP (Justice and Development Party) coalition there is a possibility of improvement in Turkish-Egyptian relations. That is why we can say this is one of the greatest expectations after November 1. elections. A CHP-AKP coalition is also expected to smooth out relations with Israel. Turkey, not getting the full support of US regarding Middle East policies, wants to adjust the political balance on his side by taking part in building the Sunni bloke and concurrently improving relations with Israel. So as a result, we can witness Russia’s super activity in the area together with Turkey settling relations with Israel and Egypt. Actually, my opinion is that Israel will have the priority.
In case of AKP getting enough votes to come to power alone, the expectation is a Middle East policy based on close relations with the Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The unfavorable relations between Turkey and Israel is expected to continue as it is. The relations with Egypt might be established again if the most important issue Morsi, the leader of Muslim Brothers, is freed.
Saudi Arabia’s Entertainment Plans: Soft Power at Work?
Saudi Arabia recently broke ground on its ambitious “entertainment city” known as Qiddiya, near Riyadh. The splashy launch, attended by 300 dignitaries from around the world, highlights a frequently overlooked aspect of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan: the entertainment industry as a growing economic sector. As the kingdom diversifies its economy away from reliance on petro fuels, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been keen to showcase the increasing openness of his country, promoting festivals, concerts and sports events and ending the country’s 35-year ban on cinemas.
These projects are partially intended to bolster the economy and attract FDI—but not only. Saudi Arabia is also playing catch-up with other regional actors, such as Qatar and the UAE, in terms of cultural output and cultural participation. With Qiddiya and the other cultural projects in the works, Saudi is now carving out a road for itself to become a regional culture hub.
Thefirst phase of Qiddiya, which includes high-end theme parks, motor sport facilities and a safari area, is expected to be completed in 2022. Saudi officials hope the park will draw in foreign investment and attract 17 million visitors by 2030; the final phase of the project is expected to be completed in 2035, by which point the entertainment resort will be the largest in the world, dwarfing Florida’s Walt Disney World.
Beyond these financial incentives, however, the Qiddiya project is Saudi Arabia’s answer to events like the Dubai Expo 2020 or the Qatar World Cup 2022 and suggests that the kingdom is trying to position itself as the next big destination for lucrative events – which also add to the idea that entertainment, culture, and innovation are key to Saudi Arabia’s economic vision and success.
Vision 2030’s emphasis on entertainment raises a key question: is Riyadh attempting to increase its soft power across the region in a constructive and proactive way? The answer to that question is yes.
In the immediate future, Qatar and the UAE will remain the region’s foremost entertainment and cultural hubs. From Qatar’s Islamic Museum of Art, which famous architect I.M. Pei came out of retirement to design, to Dubai’s theme parks, including a $1 billion behemoth which is the world’s largest indoor theme park, these two Gulf states are demonstrating their prowess to develop an arts and culture scene. In Doha, Qatar is exemplifying its unique outlook towards world affairs by emphasizing humanitarianism and fourteen centuries of history. Qatar is also hosting the World Cup in 2022, intended to bring Doha center-stage in the sports world. Abu Dhabi’s Louvre has been referred to as “one of the world’s most ambitious cultural projects”, while advertisements throughout the emirate insist that the museum will cause its visitors to “see humanity in a new light”.
Despite these Gulf states’ head start on developing vibrant entertainment sectors, there is still room for Saudi Arabia to offer something new. For one thing, some of its neighbors are dealing with trouble in paradise: Qatar’s once-strong economy is under increasing strain as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt boycott it; meanwhile, the company which owns many of Dubai’s largest theme parks lost $302 million in 2017.
The Qiddiya project also represents a particular vision that’s distinct from neighboring countries’ cultural programs. Qiddiya is designed to mix desert heritage and the ethos of the past with the technological advances of the future. The intended result is to be a fusion between aspirations and building on those achievements from desert to post-modernity, on a colossal scale.
The project is crafted both to satisfy domestic demand—it includes plans to build 11,000 homes to serve as vacation homes for Riyadh residents— and to compete directly against Saudi Arabia’s neighbors in the Gulf. With two-thirds of the Saudi population under the age of 35, building a thriving entertainment sector is particularly important.
The kingdom is hoping to use its idea of mixing the past with the future in Qiddiya to significantly alter the flow of tourist revenues in the Gulf. The UAE, Qatar and Bahrain rely on tourists from the Gulf and beyond for essential cash inflows—including the $30 billion a year Saudis spend on tourism abroad every year. By providing new entertainment options in-country for Saudi Arabia’s citizens and residents, who pay more than any other country’s citizens while on vacation, Riyadh aims to redirect some of this overseas tourism spending back into the kingdom. It’s set up concrete goals to this effect, hoping to increase domestic spending on culture and entertainment from about three percent of household income to six percent. Saudi Arabia also likely hopes that Qiddiya will attract significant international tourism as well—one senior official tied the park’s creation to the goal of making Riyadh one of the top 100 cities in the world to live.
Of course, it is likely to be a long wait before the kingdom itself starts producing the cultural output that will make it a real entertainment hub; after all, Saudi public schools still do not teach music, dance and theater, and the kingdom lacks music and film academies. But by taking the first steps of embracing the vast economic potential of the entertainment sector, the kingdom may well be on its way there.
Israel, Ukraine, and U.S. Crack Down Against Press
On Wednesday, May 16th, Russian Television reported recent crackdowns against the press, on the part of both Ukraine’s Government and Israel’s Government. One headline story, “9 journalists injured by Israeli gunfire in Gaza ‘massacre’, total now over 20”, reported that Israel had shot dead two journalists:
“Yaser Murtaja, 31, a cameraman for Palestinian Ain Media agency, died on April 7 after he was shot by Israeli forces the previous day while covering a protest south of the Gaza Strip. He wore a blue protective vest marked ‘PRESS’.”
“Ahmad Abu Hussein, 24, was shot by Israeli forces during a protest in the Gaza strip on April 13. He died from his injuries on April 25. He was also wearing a protective vest marked ‘PRESS’ at the time.”
The other 18 instances were only injuries, not murders, but Israel has now made clear that any journalist who reports from the Palestinian side is fair game for Israel’s army snipers — that when Palestinians demonstrate against their being blockaded into the vast Gaza prison, and journalists then report from amongst the demonstrators instead of from the side of the snipers, those journalists are fair game by the snipers, along with those demonstrators.
Some of the surviving 18 journalists are still in critical condition and could die from Israel’s bullets, so the deaths to journalists might be higher than just those two.
Later in the day, RT bannered “Fist-size gunshot wounds, pulverized bones, inadmissible use of force by Israel in Gaza – HRW to RT” and presented a damning interview with the Israel & Palestine Director at Human Rights Watch.
The other crackdown has been by Ukraine. After the U.S. Obama Administration perpetrated a very bloody coup in Ukraine during February of 2014, that country has plunged by every numerical measure, and has carried out raids against newsmedia that have reported unfavorably on the installed regime. The latest such incident was reported on May 16th by Russian Television, under the headline, “US endorses Kiev’s raid on Russian news agency amid international condemnation”. An official of the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) stated there: “I reiterate my call on the authorities to refrain from imposing unnecessary limitations on the work of foreign journalists, which affects the free flow of information and freedom of the media.” An official of the CPJ (Committee to Protect journalists) stated: “We call on Ukrainian authorities to disclose the charges and evidence they have against Vyshinsky or release him without delay. … We also call on Ukrainian authorities to stop harassing and obstructing Russian media operating in Ukraine. The criminalization of alternative news and views has no place in a democratic Ukraine.” However, as reported by RT, Ukraine’s Prosecutor-General called the editorial policy of the anti-regime RIA Ukraine “anti-Ukrainian” in nature, amounting to “state treason.” So, the prosecutor is threatening to categorize and prosecute critical press under Ukraine’s treason law.
The U.S. regime is not condemning either of its client-regimes for their crackdowns. (It cites Ukraine’s supposed victimhood from “Russian propaganda” as having caused Ukraine’s action, and justifies Israel’s gunning-down of demonstrators and of journalists as having beeen necessary for Israel’s self-defense against terrorism.) In neither instance is the U.S. dictatorship saying that this is unacceptable behavior for a government that receives large U.S. taxpayers funds. Of course, in the U.S., the mainstream press aren’t allowed to report that either Israel or today’s Ukraine is a dictatorship, so they don’t report this, though Israel clearly is an apartheid racist-fascist (or ideologically nazi, but in their case not against Jews) regime, and Ukraine is clearly also a racist-fascist, or nazi, regime, which engages in ethnic cleansing to get rid of voters for the previous — the pre-coup — Ukrainian government. People who are selected individually by the installed regime, get driven to a big ditch, shot, with the corpses piling up there, and then the whole thing gets covered over. This is America’s client-‘democracy’ in Ukraine, not its client-‘democracy’ in Israel.
May 16th also was the day when the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee voted 10 to 5 to approve as the next CIA Director, Gina Haspel, the person who had headed torture at the CIA’s black site in Thailand where Abu Zubaydah was waterboarded 83 times and blinded in one eye in order to get him to say that Saddam Hussein was behind the 9/11 attacks; and, since then, Zubaydah, who has never been in court, has been held incommunicado at Guantanamo, so that he can’t testify in court or communicate with the press in any way. “The U.S. Government has never charged Zubaydah with any crime.” And the person who had ordered and overseen his torture will soon head the agency for which she worked, the CIA.
Whether the U.S. regime will soon start similarly to treat its own critical press as “traitors” isn’t clear, except that ever since at least the Obama Administration, and continuing now under Trump, the U.S. Government has made clear that it wants to seize and prosecute both Edward Snowden and Julian Assange for their journalistic whistleblowing, violations of “state secrets,” those being anything that the regime wants to hide from the public — including things that are simply extremely embarrassing for the existing rulers. Therefore, the journalistic-lockdown step, from either Israel, or Ukraine, to U.S., would be small, for the United States itself to take, if it hasn’t yet already been taken in perhaps secret ways. But at least, the Senate Intelligence Committee is strongly supportive of what the U.S. Government has been doing, and wants more of it to be done.
JCPOA in Post-US Exit: Consequences and Repercussions
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or otherwise known as the Iran nuclear deal signed by the P 5+1 in 2015 was widely hailed as a landmark achievement made possible by sincere dialogue and diplomacy. Indeed, the agreement is to a greater extent an achievement of the nuclear non-proliferation regime that helped checked the increasingly disturbing power symmetry in the Middle East which in return has managed to contain the transformation of low intensity conflicts into all out wars. A relative stability is the hallmark which resulted from JCPOA in the Middle East which is extremely volatile region of the world. A vital question is: how these achievements are going to be affected by the US withdrawal from it?
The US withdrawal from JCPOA will adversely affect the aforementioned three areas of its accumulative achievement with variant degree. First, it has negative consequences for the norm that negotiated settlements in international arenas has the potential and lasting credibility to minimize violence or other coercive means led by war. The momentum and confidence the diplomatic means have garnered in post- JCPOA scenario will come to the crushing halt. The sealed and mutually agreed upon agreements in international arena especially in which the US is the potential party, will come under extreme scrutiny leading to an environment of gross trust deficit. Therefore, on the first instance this withdrawal has negative lasting consequences for the diplomatic norms in itself.
Secondly, US exist from the deal does not augur well for the nascent nuclear non-proliferation regime. This regime has a dearth of good precedents like the JCPOA which has deterred a nation from acquiring and operationalizing nuclear weapons as is the case with Iran. Keeping in view this backdrop of this institution, JCPOA has been its glaring example wherein it has managed to successfully convince a nation to not pursue the path which leads towards the nuclear weapons. Therefore, the US withdrawal has shaken the confidence of the non-proliferation regime to its core. It has engendered a split among the leading nations who were acting as sort of de facto executive to enforce the agreements on the nuclear ambitious states. Therefore, this US withdrawal has undoubtedly far reaching repercussions for the non-proliferation as an institution. This development may affect the nature and its future development as an institutional mechanism to deter the recalcitrant states to change their course regarding the nuclear weapons.
Thirdly, in relation to the above mentioned negative consequences on diplomacy and nuclear non-proliferation regime, the US withdrawal from the deal has far serious security ramifications for the volatile and conflict ridden Middle East. It has multiplied the prospects of all-out war between Iran and its regional rivals on one hand and Iran and Israel on the other hand. Just tonight the announcement of Trump exiting JCPOA and the Israeli aggression on Syrian military bases substantiates the assertion that there exists a correlation between this US withdrawal and the Zionist regime`s regional hegemonic designs. It has extremely positive message for the Saudi Arabia. The impulsive and overambitious Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) went on extended tours in the US and Europe to convince Western leadership that Iran should be contained. Therefore, element of stability in the region – contained low intensity conflicts – got serious motivation to turn into all-out-wars with non-exclusion of nuclear options at the disposal of Zionist regime in the Middle East. The Middle Eastern region with this exit of the US is going to observe substantial turmoil in the months to come which will have some extra regional ramifications.
As a conclusion it could be argued that the US exit has some far reaching repercussions for the diplomatic norms, non-proliferation regime and above all for the volatile Middle Eastern region. All these ramifications resulted from the US withdrawal will also in return have some serious consequences internally and externally. The status of the US as the sole super power of the world will be diminished with this decision. It will create an unbridgeable gap in the West. Henceforth, the EU foreign will be more autonomous, integrated and autonomous in her conduct.
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