On social media someone commented that “Two countries got independence from the British during 1947 in Asia. One reached Mars, while the other is still trying to enter India…”. A strongly democratic India cannot expect a democratically disordered Pakistan to participate in pragmatic dialogue.
The more India celebrates its democracy, the more it will disturb its unstable neighbour. Kashmir has been the video game for the Pakistan domestic politics since its independence. It continues to raise this issue in the UN arena, including its latest meeting. However, its global well-wishers, including the US and China, are fading away on the Kashmir issue. Could it be that six decades of wretched India-Pakistan relations will soon follow suit?
The nature of Pakistan’s policy on the Kashmir issue has meant that the last six decades of India-Pakistan relations have been wasted. If this unyielding stance continues, another six decades of discussion will also be fruitless. This is a strong impediment for development of the youth of that Pakistan. India and Pakistan have more serious issues than Kashmir to resolve. That is not to say that Kashmir does not remain an important issue but this question has no meaningful answer in the present context. Until Pakistan’s leaders change, India and Pakistan cannot converge and prosper together. History demonstrates this. This single issue in relations affects all others, whether it is for example bilateral trade, security issues or civilian contacts. China’s investment in Pakistan is based on China’s national interest. Pakistan should realise that during the Kargil War the US and China’s stance was neutral. Though India and China’s defence budgets are increasing they have more convergence than divergence. Pakistan should recognise this and seek to correct its policy correction with India. During the cold war the US and China’s relations with Pakistan were the part and parcel of countering the expansion of the Soviet in the Indian Subcontinent. Therefore, during the war with India, Pakistan enjoyed no substantial leverage through these relations.
While India’s strategic interest with the US was highly charged, its cooperation with Russia was smooth sailing. Further, India’s relations with China were steady. The position of these relationships helped India to move forward in all aspects of growth and in sustainable development. Should Pakistan’s strategic trajectory change its relations, which would be the only viable option if it honestly reflected on the past, its relations with India would only benefit. Prime Minister Nawaz Sheriff’s is strongly in favour of nurturing a meaningful engagement with India. However, he cannot enable this to happen alone. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Modi’s attempt to put more pressure on his counterpart has not reaped any results.
India should also not forget that a more fragile Pakistan will mean a more unstable subcontinent. The Peshawar school attack triggered a serious response by Pakistan against the domestic terrorist threat – but it did not intervene to a sufficient degree. Further, Pakistan’s non-cooperation with India on the Mumbai terror attack investigation demonstrates Pakistan’s inability to truly oppose cross border terrorism. Tariq Khosa, the former Director General of Pakistan’s Federal Investigation Agency said: “Are we as a nation prepared to muster the courage to face uncomfortable truths and combat the demons of militancy that haunt our land?” With a sense or irony, Pakistan often points out to India that all of its domestic turmoil will not serve any advantage.
The speeches of the army generals of Pakistan’s are comparable to the rhetoric of the North Korean leadership. Prose which is to deter nuclear weaponry should never use the word ‘nuclear’ too often, because of its consequences. If Pakistan has a credible nuclear facility, then it must act now for the welfare of Pakistan, instead of continuing in its resistance to a potential relationship with India. The weak will always show up with weapons. An unstable country will act or speak harshly in a disturbed voice. Pakistan demonstrates this quite often. It never stands as a responsible nuclear country. It is fear which makes Pakistan follow a “first strike policy”. On the contrary, India avoids exercising such a doctrine.
Pakistan was the training ground for the Mujahedeen ahead of the role they played against the Soviet during the Cold War. Today Pakistan harvests its impacts. The 2014 Peshawar school massacre best illustrates the present complex security situation Pakistan’s. It should be understood that Pakistan is divided in opinion on how to deal with domestic terror. Moreover, it is not easy to respond to domestic terrorism by military force. To overcome, there must be strong unique state behaviour.
Meanwhile, India and China have a long historical unresolved border issue. India suffered a real setback in the 1962 border war with China. Any victory can be easily forgotten, but not the defeat. The strong will forget the defeat first. India reflected on the defeat and this strengthened its economy and military. It shows India’s strength. Further, a breakthrough in resolving the border issue was achieved by the former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in the late 1980s, after pushing for a peaceful solution through an institutional mechanism. The Chinese presumed that India was an unchangeable neighbour yet Pakistan did not. This was its strategic error. Pakistan did not realise what the then Prime Minister Vajpayee said: ‘you can change friends, but not neighbours’.
The other real issue in India and Pakistan relations was the ISI and the army generals of Pakistan. India kept its army generals under control. Unless Pakistan can do likewise, there will be no pragmatic dialogue between India and Pakistan. The senior army general’s does not desire to see the development of Pakistan. Rather they were distressed over their earlier defeat by India. As long as the Pakistan senior generals let the past rule their minds there will be no substantial expansion in India-Pakistan relations.
If Pakistan changes its policy, India should try to maximise Pakistan’s democratic stability. Further, it would be wise to create an institutional mechanism for the Kashmir talks between India and Pakistan. This could reduce its trust-deficit and help it to concentrate on the other sustainable issues. This would help both countries to move towards a meaningful engagement for further mutual benefits. “This required a strong leadership”, said Imran Khan the leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Party.
The Europe that was the mother for all battle fields has now become the EU. While the Berlin wall is no more, what is the relevance of Indo-Pak border? Think of an Indian Union! This would at least heal the wounds of the partisan. Moreover, this would provide an opportunity to cross the border once again freely for trade and allow innocent people in both countries to meet without restrictions. The political philosophy of the last six decades has been different. However, the young generation from both sides now wants to progress. Will the old guards allow it?