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India and Pakistan Relations

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On social media someone commented that “Two countries got independence from the British during 1947 in Asia. One reached Mars, while the other is still trying to enter India…”. A strongly democratic India cannot expect a democratically disordered Pakistan to participate in pragmatic dialogue.

The more India celebrates its democracy, the more it will disturb its unstable neighbour. Kashmir has been the video game for the Pakistan domestic politics since its independence. It continues to raise this issue in the UN arena, including its latest meeting. However, its global well-wishers, including the US and China, are fading away on the Kashmir issue. Could it be that six decades of wretched India-Pakistan relations will soon follow suit?

The nature of Pakistan’s policy on the Kashmir issue has meant that the last six decades of India-Pakistan relations have been wasted. If this unyielding stance continues, another six decades of discussion will also be fruitless. This is a strong impediment for development of the youth of that Pakistan. India and Pakistan have more serious issues than Kashmir to resolve. That is not to say that Kashmir does not remain an important issue but this question has no meaningful answer in the present context. Until Pakistan’s leaders change, India and Pakistan cannot converge and prosper together. History demonstrates this. This single issue in relations affects all others, whether it is for example bilateral trade, security issues or civilian contacts. China’s investment in Pakistan is based on China’s national interest. Pakistan should realise that during the Kargil War the US and China’s stance was neutral. Though India and China’s defence budgets are increasing they have more convergence than divergence. Pakistan should recognise this and seek to correct its policy correction with India. During the cold war the US and China’s relations with Pakistan were the part and parcel of countering the expansion of the Soviet in the Indian Subcontinent. Therefore, during the war with India, Pakistan enjoyed no substantial leverage through these relations.

While India’s strategic interest with the US was highly charged, its cooperation with Russia was smooth sailing. Further, India’s relations with China were steady. The position of these relationships helped India to move forward in all aspects of growth and in sustainable development. Should Pakistan’s strategic trajectory change its relations, which would be the only viable option if it honestly reflected on the past, its relations with India would only benefit. Prime Minister Nawaz Sheriff’s is strongly in favour of nurturing a meaningful engagement with India. However, he cannot enable this to happen alone. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Modi’s attempt to put more pressure on his counterpart has not reaped any results.

India should also not forget that a more fragile Pakistan will mean a more unstable subcontinent. The Peshawar school attack triggered a serious response by Pakistan against the domestic terrorist threat – but it did not intervene to a sufficient degree. Further, Pakistan’s non-cooperation with India on the Mumbai terror attack investigation demonstrates Pakistan’s inability to truly oppose cross border terrorism. Tariq Khosa, the former Director General of Pakistan’s Federal Investigation Agency said: “Are we as a nation prepared to muster the courage to face uncomfortable truths and combat the demons of militancy that haunt our land?” With a sense or irony, Pakistan often points out to India that all of its domestic turmoil will not serve any advantage.

The speeches of the army generals of Pakistan’s are comparable to the rhetoric of the North Korean leadership. Prose which is to deter nuclear weaponry should never use the word ‘nuclear’ too often, because of its consequences. If Pakistan has a credible nuclear facility, then it must act now for the welfare of Pakistan, instead of continuing in its resistance to a potential relationship with India. The weak will always show up with weapons. An unstable country will act or speak harshly in a disturbed voice. Pakistan demonstrates this quite often. It never stands as a responsible nuclear country. It is fear which makes Pakistan follow a “first strike policy”. On the contrary, India avoids exercising such a doctrine.

Pakistan was the training ground for the Mujahedeen ahead of the role they played against the Soviet during the Cold War. Today Pakistan harvests its impacts. The 2014 Peshawar school massacre best illustrates the present complex security situation Pakistan’s. It should be understood that Pakistan is divided in opinion on how to deal with domestic terror. Moreover, it is not easy to respond to domestic terrorism by military force. To overcome, there must be strong unique state behaviour.

Meanwhile, India and China have a long historical unresolved border issue. India suffered a real setback in the 1962 border war with China. Any victory can be easily forgotten, but not the defeat. The strong will forget the defeat first. India reflected on the defeat and this strengthened its economy and military. It shows India’s strength. Further, a breakthrough in resolving the border issue was achieved by the former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in the late 1980s, after pushing for a peaceful solution through an institutional mechanism. The Chinese presumed that India was an unchangeable neighbour yet Pakistan did not. This was its strategic error. Pakistan did not realise what the then Prime Minister Vajpayee said: ‘you can change friends, but not neighbours’.

The other real issue in India and Pakistan relations was the ISI and the army generals of Pakistan. India kept its army generals under control. Unless Pakistan can do likewise, there will be no pragmatic dialogue between India and Pakistan. The senior army general’s does not desire to see the development of Pakistan. Rather they were distressed over their earlier defeat by India. As long as the Pakistan senior generals let the past rule their minds there will be no substantial expansion in India-Pakistan relations.

If Pakistan changes its policy, India should try to maximise Pakistan’s democratic stability. Further, it would be wise to create an institutional mechanism for the Kashmir talks between India and Pakistan. This could reduce its trust-deficit and help it to concentrate on the other sustainable issues. This would help both countries to move towards a meaningful engagement for further mutual benefits. “This required a strong leadership”, said Imran Khan the leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Party.

The Europe that was the mother for all battle fields has now become the EU. While the Berlin wall is no more, what is the relevance of Indo-Pak border? Think of an Indian Union! This would at least heal the wounds of the partisan. Moreover, this would provide an opportunity to cross the border once again freely for trade and allow innocent people in both countries to meet without restrictions. The political philosophy of the last six decades has been different. However, the young generation from both sides now wants to progress. Will the old guards allow it?

Antony Clement is a Senior Editor (Indo-Pacific), Modern Diplomacy, an online journal. He is a researcher in Indian Foreign Policy. He is currently working on two books - “The Best Teacher” and “Diplomacy in Tough Times”. His research centres on India’s diplomacy & foreign policy and extends to domestic politics, economic policy, security issues, and international security matters, including India’s relations with the US, the BRICS nations, the EU and Australia. His recent book is “Discover your talents.”

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The sizzling “Political Matrix”; What will happen now?

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Politics in Pakistan is unfortunately leaving scars that will fade away not that easily. Islamabad today is wrapped in thick political clouds since past few weeks. These last few weeks have altered all assumptions and calculations in the national political matrix.  While the political landscape today is sizzling with intensity, aggression and strain the economy is shattering every day.  Who is to blame for? What will happen now? And will sanity prevail?

The entire edifice of the “conspiracy mantra” which even made PTI commit violation of the constitution stands demolished today. It was one of the worst advices Imran khan could ever get from his party among the list of many others. Sadly he made his entire politics captive to this conspiracy myth.  But today no one questions them on the impact it had on our foreign policy. US today feels betrayed, Saudis not ready to give aid, Chinese worried about their stakes and it continues.  So diplomatically this conspiracy mantra has damaged Pakistan like anything.

Imran Khan’s followers see nothing wrong in what he says and what he does. They absolutely reject all the facts, all the logics and embrace the rhetoric which is fuelling more today with a greater intensity. Imran khan is leading this campaign more aggressively. Khan very well knows that bringing large crowds to Islamabad will have an impact only if there is some kind of aggression.  The leaders on different occasions already hinted towards an aggressive March. He very well realizes that the figure of 2.5 Million is unrealistic but keeping in view the size of Islamabad, 0.1 Million crowd will even be perceived as a bigger crowd. So can he force the early elections at this stage? How will the government react to it? For instance let’s accept this narrative that the pressure of crowd aids PTI in getting an early election call and PTI wins it. So now what next? How will you deal with the mighty US? The economy is already sinking. You need aid to feed it but no one is providing you that. Then how will you stop dollar from going above 200? How will you provide relief from the soaring fuel prices when you won’t have money for a subsidy even? Forget about one lakh jobs and 50 lakh houses.

From the past few weeks we haven’t heard any PTI leader telling any economic plan or any diplomatic plan to revive relations. How will you deal with the IFI’s, World Bank & IMF when they’re all US controlled and as per your narrative you won’t accept “Amreeka ki Ghulami” or USA’s dictatorship.

So now what options the present regime has? The government would of course like to stop this building dangerous momentum of “Azadi March”. They would not like any big clash in Islamabad which results in bigger mess and chaos. The PDM government also has a much bigger fish to deal with, the same sinking economy. They came into power with this narrative to fix economy as former Premiere was unable to do it.  The key cabinet members made more than two different official visits.  The instructions are coming from London today as a decisive power so who will run the government? Who will run the system? Will the IMF aid? What will be the upcoming budget about? This upcoming budget is a bigger risk for this government along with an already announced to Long march call. Khan has already played a dangerous narrative especially with the blame of another conspiracy being made about his Life.   

The stakes, the narrative and the politics of every party is at risk today.  But above that, Pakistan is at risk. The dread is in the air. The end of May will be heated ferociously in Islamabad, whether politically or meteorologically.

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Sri Lankan economic crisis and the China factor

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After the resignation of Mahinda Rajapaksa, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is the sole member of the United National Party (UNP), was sworn in as Sri Lankan Prime Minister on Thursday, May 12, 2022. Wickremesinghe will be holding the position of Sri Lankan PM for the sixth time. While the new Sri Lankan PM is a seasoned administrator, the task of restoring even a modicum of normalcy to the island nation’s economy, which is currently facing its worst economic crisis since its independence in 1948 seems to be a Herculean task (Wickremesinghe has clearly indicated, that his first task will be ensuring the supply of electricity, diesel and petrol to the people).

 The grave economic crisis, which has resulted in acute shortage of food and essential commodities have brought ordinary people on the roads and demonstrations have resulted in violence and loss of lives (the Sri Lankan President had to declare a state of emergency twice first last month and then earlier this month). There had been a growing clamor for the resignation by President Gottabaya Rajapaksa but Wickremesinghe was sworn in after the exit of Mahinda Rajapaksa (protests have been carrying on even after the swearing in of Wickremesinghe)

During his previous tenure, Wickremesinghe had tried to reduce Sri Lanka’s dependence upon China, and in his current tenure he will be compelled to do the same. He had also been critical of the previous government for not approaching the IMF for assistance (Wickremesinghe has been repeatedly accused of being pro-west and having neoliberal leanings by many of his political opponents).

It would be pertinent to point out, that the PM had also batted for a coordinated regional response, by SAARC vis-à-vis the covid19 pandemic. The new Sri Lankan PM has also been an ardent advocate of improving ties with India.

While it is true, that Sri Lanka finds itself in the current situation due to economic mismanagement and excessive dependence upon the tourism sector (which faced a severe setback as a result of covid 19), it is tough to overlook the level of debts piled vis-à-vis China, and the fact that the Island nation was following China’s model of economic growth with a focus on big ticket infrastructure projects.

Another South Asian nation — Pakistan which witnessed a change last month where Shehbaz Sharif took over as Prime Minister, replacing Imran Khan, also faces daunting economic challenges.  Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves were estimated to be a little over $ 10 billion on May 6, 2022 and the Pakistani Rupee fell to its all time low versus the US Dollar on Thursday, May 12, 2022. Shehbaz Sharif ever since taking over as PM has repeatedly reiterated the importance of Pakistan’s ties with China and the Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto in a conversation with his Chinese counterpart alluded to the same, with Pakistan’s Foreign office in a statement released after the conversation between Bhutto and Wang Yi said:

 “underscored his determination to inject fresh momentum in the bilateral strategic cooperative partnership and add new avenues to practical cooperation”.

 Yet, China has categorically said that it will not provide any financial assistance until Pakistan resumes the IMF aid program. Pakistan has been compelled to look at other alternatives such as Saudi Arabia and UAE, which have also said that without the revival of the IMF program aid will not be possible. Only recently, Chinese power companies functioning under the umbrella of the China Pakistan Economic corridor (CPEC) have threatened to shut down their operations if their dues (to the tune of 1.59 billion USD) are not cleared. China had also reacted very strongly to the terror attack on Karachi University in which three Chinese teachers lost their lives, this is the second such attack after 2021. China in recent years had also indicated to Pakistan, that it was not happy with the progress of the China Pakistan Economic (CPEC) project. The current government in Pakistan has repeatedly pointed to this fact.

One point which is abundantly clear from the economic crisis in Sri Lanka as well as the challenges which Pakistan is facing is that excessive dependence upon China has disastrous consequences in the long run. If one were to look at the case of South Asia, Bangladesh has been astute by not being excessively dependent upon China – it has maintained robust economic relations with India and Japan. Given the changing economic situation it is becoming increasingly important for developing countries, especially in South Asia, to join hands to confront the mounting challenges posed by excessive dependency upon China. US, Japan and western multilateral bodies and financial institutions need to find common ground and provide developing countries with an alternative economic narrative. It is also time for India along with other countries in the South Asian region to find common ground and focus on robust economic cooperation.

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Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis and Taliban’s obsession with women’s rights

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A mother and her child in the Haji camp for internally displaced people in Kandahar, Afghanistan. © UNICEF Afghanistan

The Taliban’s latest move to restrict the rights of women points to an obsession with women’s rights. This is in stark contrast to the neglect the regime is showing in addressing an ever worsening economic and humanitarian crisis. With Afghan’s facing poverty and starvation, the Taliban needs to focus on rebuilding the country, and this can only be achieved by respecting the rights of women.

This comes after the Taliban ordered all women to cover their faces in public, making it the latest restriction on the rights of women by the oppressive regime. The Taliban has previously forbidden women from travelling long distances unsupervised or working outside of the healthcare sector. The Taliban also faced international outcry earlier this year when they backflipped on a decision to allow women and girls to attend secondary school and university, making it impossible for women to receive an education.

The Taliban’s treatment of women is not a new development. During the regimes previous reign, between 1996 and 2001, it was described as the least feminist movement in the world. The Taliban forbade education, employment and access to healthcare delivered by men, while also making the veil mandatory and forbidding women to leave the home unless accompanied by a male family member. This was seen as the strictest interpretation of Sharia Law.

Contrary to claims made by the Taliban, the latest iteration of the movement is now attempting to do the same by systematically removing women from public life.

The difference this time is that, since the US withdrawal, the country has experienced an economic and humanitarian crisis. This is largely due to poor governance, the freezing of central bank assets by the US and the withdrawal of foreign aid in response to the Taliban takeover.

The situation is dire. Half the population, approximately 20 million people, are facing acute food insecurity, malnutrition, and hunger. Healthcare is notoriously difficult to access, and poverty is widespread, with women, persecuted minority groups and former government employees refused work and unable to provide for their families. The crisis is so critical that families are resorting to selling their children to delay starvation.

This raises the question of why the Taliban is so obsessed with restricting the rights of women when Afghanistan is falling apart around them. Strict adherence to Sharia Law aside, this attack of women’s rights is clearly to the Taliban’s detriment and the detriment of the people of Afghanistan. This position must change for the country to rebuild.

First and foremost, the actions of the Taliban and the humanitarian crisis is making the situation of women much worse, as women are one of Afghanistan’s the most vulnerable groups. The restriction of their rights has resulted in a lack of income and education, making women reliant on their families for food, water and sanitation products. This is meant that women are not only facing poverty and starvation, but they are also increasingly at risk of exploitation by family members and their communities.

Second, the removal of women from the workplace also affects Afghanistan as a whole. While the Taliban has allowed women to work in the health sector, many have not returned to work, dramatically reducing the number of doctors and nurses able to treat other women, particularly in rural areas. On top of this, women that have returned have not been paid, and are reliant on aid agencies to feed their families.

Outside of healthcare, women have been completely removed from the workplace, including in government, the judicial system, charities and aid agencies. Under the Karzai and Ghani governments the wages of women played an important role in providing for families through their increased workplace representation. With their right to employment suddenly removed, this has played a fundamental role in the causing poverty levels to rise throughout the country.

Third, the Taliban is desperate for international recognition, and that recognition and the aid that comes with it is tied to respecting human rights. The Taliban’s abhorrent treatment of women means that the frozen assets held by the US, and aid from the international community, will continue to be out of arms reach. This will leave the country short of much needed funds to avert the current crisis, leaving those most vulnerable, particularly women, at risk of starvation.

While the international community shares some blame for the humanitarian crisis by withholding assets and restricting the flow of aid, it is also the Taliban’s responsibility, under international law, to treat its citizens as per their human rights.

For this reason, if the Taliban is interested in allowing Afghanistan to rebuild, then it must realise that economic relief is directly tied to the human rights of women.

Allowing women to participate in society, through attending school and participating in the workforce, will have a net benefit for Afghan society by increasing education levels, workforce participation and, in the short term, reduce poverty levels.

Respecting the rights of women will also allow aid to flow into the country, helping alleviate the worst effects of the humanitarian crisis that has engulfed the country and will allow aid agencies to monitor human rights throughout Afghanistan.

This creates an opportunity for the international community to pressure the regime into respecting the rights of women. This will help to alleviate the humanitarian crisis and will go a long way to improving the lives of women and girls by giving them an opportunity to get an education, enter the workforce and participate in society.

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