The United States imposed sanctions on Russia in response to the annexation of Crimea and subsequent involvement in the war in Ukraine. The sanctions have hit Russia’s economy hard largely due to foreign investors pulling $96 billion out of Russia since 2014.
The sanctions imposed by the United States have affected Russia as a whole, from the top to the bottom, from the government to the people. This is an important issue as the Russian government has no intention of backing down or moving away from its defiant stance.
The purpose of economic sanctions is to impose economic harm so as to effect policy change in the target nation. President Obama signed Executive Order 13660 on March 6, 2014, which authorized sanctions for violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and/or stealing assets belonging to the people of Ukraine. The sanctions would restrict certain individuals’ travel, which included Russian and Crimean officials, as well as businessmen who were part of Putin’s “inner circle”, and would demonstrate the United States’ willingness to “impose a cost on Russia and those responsible for the situation in Crimea.” Also, certain Russian government officials’ assets would be frozen, thereby preventing them from buying or selling in the European Union. Eleven days later, Executive Order 13661 was signed by President Obama which stated that Russia’s actions toward Ukraine undermined the democratic processes and institutions in Ukraine and thus expanded sanctions further against Russian entities such as parts of Russia’s financial, energy, and military industries.
Three days after President Obama signed Executive Order 13661, he issued Executive Order 13662 Directive 4. President Obama enlarged the scope of the national emergency declared in Executive Order 13660 and had then expanded in Executive Order 13661 to declare that Russia’s actions and policies toward Ukraine were a threat to American national security and foreign policy:
“The provision, exportation, or re-exportation, directly or indirectly, of goods, services, or technology in support of exploration or production for deepwater, Arctic offshore, or shale projects that have the potential to produce oil in the Russian Federation, or in a maritime area claimed by the Russian Federation and extending from its territory, and that involve any persons determined to be subject to this Directive, its property, or its interests in property is prohibited.”
A second round was applied on July 16, 2014, called sectoral sanctions. The sanctions prevent Russia from borrowing money to mitigate the blow of falling oil prices. Russian international reserves declined by $135 billion in 2014 and there has also been a huge outflow of capital from the country. Basic food prices have subsequently sharply increased since the sanctions began, with the price of buckwheat increasing as much as 70 percent, for example. The exchange rate in Russia jumps up and down, often by five percent a day, at times even ten percent, which is causing consumer panic. Incomes in Russia have also decreased. In 2014, real incomes decreased by 1% and already by 3.1% in the first half of 2015. This is the first time that has happened since Putin took office in 1999. Inflation also soared to 11.4% in 2014 and the ruble continued to decline, losing 40% of its value to the dollar. Those in the Russian government and the Russian people overall blame the United States for their worsening economy. Thus the blame for food shortages, inflation, devaluation of the ruble, decreasing real income, etc. also falls on the United States in their eyes.
The sanctions most likely will not do much to change the mind of the Putin administration but rather will continue to lower the quality of living for millions in Russia. Russia is highly dependent on food exports, especially from the United States and Europe. In 2013, Russia received $1.3 billion in food and agriculture exports from the United States and $15.8 billion in exports from the European Union. While Russia may try to increase its domestic production of food, it will not be able to fill the void that will be caused by such a loss. “Russia’s Central Bank pointed out that bans on imported food will push up Russia’s already high inflation rate, eroding the purchasing power of Russian citizens.”
The people of Russia have shown deep dissatisfaction with the United States and have increased their approval of Putin. According to the Levada Center polling organization, the Russian people have been decreasing their approval of the United States since the sanctions were imposed in 2014. From this data, it can be implied that the sanctions started the current downward trend of negative views on the US. Looking at the data from 1990, there are three spikes of anti-Americanism that occur prior to 2014. One in the late 1990s during the Kosovo War; one in 2003 when the United States invaded Iraq; and one in 2008 when the United States was critical of Russia’s conflict with Georgia. The difference between these spikes of anti-Americanism and the current trend is that this spike seems more intense and personal.
The title of the graph roughly translates to “How do you view the US generally”; the blue line represents the percentage of Russians who say they view the US positively, while the red line is percentage of Russians who view the US negatively.
During the Kosovo war, Russian disapproval of America peaked at around 53% over a two-year period. In 2003, Russian disapproval of America peaked at around 66% over a five-month period. In 2008, Russian disapproval of America peaked at around 67% over a three-month period. Even though the disapproval lasted the longest in the late 1990s, only half of the population held these views. Since January 2015, Russian disapproval of America stands at 81% and has been increasing for almost a year. With this data, there is evidence to suggest that the level of anti-Americanism within Russia is strongly related to domestic economic conditions in the country. This further supports the primary hypothesis that current economic sanctions, and specifically their impact on the Russian people, will lead to intensifying levels of anti-Americanism.
Even though the sanctions have worsened the economic situation in Russia, they have also created a foreign policy backlash resulting in an increased approval rating for Putin:
Fisher, M. (2015, February 9). Chart: Anti-Americanism is exploding in Russia
As seen in the chart above, Putin’s approval rating was slowly declining from 2008 to the beginning of 2014. In July 2008, Putin’s approval rating was at around 88%. By January 2014, his rating had dropped almost 28 percentage points. After the US sanctions were enacted in 2014, within eight months Putin was almost back to his 2008 rating. What this clearly shows is that there is definitely a sense of ‘nationalist backlash’ connected to the imposition of sanctions against Russia. Whereas there has always been something of a low-grade anti-Americanism in Russia for American global actions, these actions have always largely impacted Russian peripheral interests. The sanctions today, however, are direct and personal: they are seen as an explicit attempt by the United States to hurt Russia, not Russian interests. For that reason it is perhaps more surprising the West could not anticipate this attitudinal backlash. This is, it seems, political naiveté at its finest.