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Hell’s Conduit: Trafficking through the Caspian

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Tajikistan unfortunately has all of the pre-conditions that make trafficking in persons there a perfect opportunity for the growing trade of human commodities. The state has poor governance, is rife with corruption, unemployment is high, and a large portion of the population is uneducated.

This combination of variables makes ‘acquiring’ human commodities very easy for the traffickers. The fact that the Caspian region, a major conduit and facilitator of such underworld activities, sits right on Tajikistan’s doorstep gives traffickers an easy route out of Central Asia and on to more lucrative and manipulative markets.

Madina, like thousands of other Tajik women who have been trafficked, had fallen on hard times. She was a single mother working in her local market and barely scraping by. Madina was enticed into the lurid world of the sex trade when a stranger approached her and promised that he would take her abroad and she would be able to earn large sums of money in just a few months and return home to her children. Of course, this was a lie. The man, who was a trafficker, took Madina to Turkey (through the Caspian region first, as most trafficked victims from Central Asia are) where he enslaved her at a brothel for over a year. Women, however, usually do not stay in their original destination country. Madina saw people transported on to Russia and Kazakhstan while others went to the Middle East, Iran, and even China.

Economic changes account for sexual exploitation as the number one trafficking concern in Tajikistan. The financial crisis of 2008 played an extraordinarily large role in the rise of trafficking along with the lack of border controls and complicity of the local governmental agents. As Louise Shelley states, “one-third of Tajik households now have a family member working outside of their country, most often in [the Caspian littoral states of] Russia or Kazakhstan.” (Shelley 2010) They are living in harsh conditions with many people housed in a single room. The conditions are filthy, exposing workers to dangerous jobs with little protection from the heat or cold, and employers that show little to no regard for the workers’ safety.  

An often unseen aspect to Caspian trafficking is how it leaves the families left back in Tajikistan vulnerable to internal trafficking. These children left behind in Tajikistan, now devoid of their matriarchal authority figure, are often forced to work in the cotton fields within Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Even though officially adopted legislation is in place that prohibits the use of child and forced labor, especially in rural areas, many of the schools remain closed during picking season and the children are forced to work. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) remains the top agency in Tajikistan to monitor and fight the practice of trafficking in persons. For the years of 2010 and 2011, the IOM produced lengthy reports explaining their findings on the cotton harvests. Working together with local government and law enforcement, the IOM was able to determine that while there was a drop in the number of students participating in the harvest, trafficking in child labor was still high.

There is a pernicious secondary trafficking market through the Caspian region that is also under-researched: children are not only vulnerable to the pressures of forced labor within Tajikistan once an adult figure is stolen away. They themselves are sometimes then consequently trafficked out-of-country as domestic servants. Many of the children will end up in places where children are used in the sex trade as well. Russia and Iran are some of the strongest ‘middle organizers’ of this secondary market, acting as conduits through the Caspian and onward to, for example, the Arab Gulf States. Also, because of the massive numbers of adults that are migrant workers, many children find themselves taken by parents to places like Russia and then actually abandoned when their parents find they can no longer support them. Uneducated children who know little to no Russian at all and have no papers to identify who they are or find their parents often end up extremely vulnerable. The transient homes throughout Russia that are set up as temporary places of safety more often serve as de facto recruiting grounds for organized crime groups that utilize trafficking as a major cash resource. These children become the victims of sexual exploitation, forced labor, forced begging, and even conscripted as child soldiers to conflicts all around the globe. Some children end up in places as far away as Latin America. And all of them, almost without exception, start that horrible journey by transiting through the Caspian.

The ties that human traffickers have to organized crime offer them ways to forge documents and utilize illicit trade routes. It should be no surprise that the prosperous natural resource routes of the Caspian often double as illicit trade routes for ‘Dark Net’ activities. Advertising of ‘human inventory’ is now cheap, secret, and easily accessible because of modern technology. Consumers of trafficked persons are able to shop for their perfect victims with just the click of a button on their computer, tablet, or cell phone. Traffickers can use cell phones to make and take bids on their human commodities, while buyers are able to make their purchase – documentation and travel included no less – to anywhere in the world. Unfortunately, the decreased costs of transportation in the Caspian, as it has become more and more integrated into the global economy, have also made it easier to export these unfortunate souls.

Many countries, including Tajikistan, rely solely on the human-trafficking protocols set forth by the United Nations. Cooperation across many United Nations groups, academia, and private institutions are coming together to bring recognition to the problem of human-trafficking. The list of organizations that are participating in the initiatives include the United Nations Global Initiative to Fight Human Trafficking (UN-GIFT), the UNODC, the International Labor Organization (ILO), the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), International Organization for Migration (IOM), and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). After rescuing victims of trafficking from their lives of servitude, the most difficult part is to reintegrate them back into their home societies. In Tajikistan, women who have been trafficked across the Caspian face a strong stigma related to the sexual activities they may have been involved in while being trafficked. This makes the reintegration process difficult because the community shuns the women, leaving strong feelings of inadequacy, guilt, and shame. The IOM has played the largest role in aiding victims of trafficking (VoTs) to reintegrate back into society. Unfortunately, these efforts are small in comparison to the estimated numbers of people that are actually trafficked. The complexity of retrieving victims from across international borders makes rescue near impossible in most cases. Traffickers have become experts at hiding and manipulating the victims into obedient compliance.

The governments of the Caspian littoral states still do not take the issue of trafficking seriously enough in my opinion. Until these governments take a serious stance against corruption and place a higher value on fundamental human rights and basic standards of decency, trafficking will continue to be a problem for years to come. The lives of these invisible citizens will be lost in a world of darkness. It is not just a problem for the Caspian. It is a problem for all of the countries adjacent to the Caspian Five as well. Until progress is made the Caspian region will not just be a 21st century channel for a new Silk Road into Central Asia. It will quite literally for some be a conduit to Hell.

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Central Asia

Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit and Later Developments: The Politics Analyzed

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The summit’s mood was a somber one, toned down by Ukraine war, mounting global economic and environmental crises.

Important developments are:

  1. Strengthening Economic Ties

New initiatives planned to develop economic and transport corridors, tourism and services trade and expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative. Trade within SCO grew 12 percent annually. China aims $2.3 trillion trade with SCO within next 5 years.

Today, China and Russia conducted $140 billion in trade, which will reach around $200 billion by yearend. India also increased purchases of Russian oil, coal, and fertilizer and became one of its largest fuel customers since the Ukraine invasion.

Pakistan plans to import Russian gas and Putin offered building a pipeline to supply it. Pakistan desperately needs Russian gas because of its energy crisis.

Meanwhile, economic developments in Central Asian resulting from Russian and Chinese investments have exceeding $61 billion.

  •  Strengthening Collective Security Mechanisms

There has been some success in collective security cooperation. The Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure is functioning, and several new independent security mechanisms planned.

China and Russia had steadily built economic and strategic ties. Russia plans further strengthening them.

  • Expansion of the SCO

Iran has now become SCO’s ninth member. Belarus seeks full membership. Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia will become dialogue partners. Turkey’s received observer status. Eight countries are expected to become members.

5. Voice of Developing Nations

Joint statement on climate change called for balance between reducing carbon emissions and allowing poorer states to catch up with developed countries. SCO called for a balanced approach between emissions reduction and development.

  • Divisions within the SCO

Summit was expected to provide chance for Russia and China to make a case for new world order. However, the war sowed divisions, as no government favored Putin’s actions. Clinched in confrontation with the West, Putin denied isolation, but the summit proved otherwise.

Given the war, some Central Asian leaders worry about Russian behavior. Kazakhstan and Pakistan refuse to toe Moscow’s line. Kazakhstan has aided Ukraine. China’s refusal to condemn Russia has caused unease among some countries, hindering efforts building regional ties. Also complicating picture is India, which like China had not outrightly condemned Russia, nor participated in Western sanctions on it. India has strong military ties with Russia but is changing tone. Both China and India have mildly criticized Russia. On September 21 Putin raised the threat of nuclear response in the war and ordered reservists mobilization. He was widely condemned. America said threats were nothing new. So far, Putin seems undaunted by criticism.

Economic cooperation between China and Russia likely to grow being mutually beneficial. However, China trying to stay out of Ukraine mess and its danger. While Putin’s war has yet to spread beyond Ukraine, it could trigger larger war between Russia and NATO. Therefore, China has wisely urged Russia to de-escalate and called for a cease-fire. China continues balancing positions as the goal of Xi’s foreign policy is to put country first.

Since Biden supports India as permanent member of UNSC, it will also call Russia not to escalate conflict. Earlier, India had repeatedly called for diplomacy. Modi’s recent criticism of Russia is setback for Putin as war drives a wedge in relations.

  • Failures

Firstly, Modi did not meet Xi. The two have not met since the border conflict more than two years ago. Delhi is wary of Beijing’s growing regional influence, especially in Pakistan.

Also, the leaders of rivals Pakistan and India did not meet.

Two failed opportunities.

Secondly, the summit failed to take any meaningful action on the current global food and energy crisis linked to the war. Resultantly, the regional food supply may face even bigger challenges in the future.

Thirdly, region requires massive investment in climate resilience development. Though requested by Pakistan, climate action framework not discussed.

Fourthly, China and Russia failed committing needed financing of institutions because of their own economic weaknesses.

Fifthly, Russia’s Ukraine actions not condemned by members. Only Turkey’s President Erdogan urged Putin to return occupied territory to Ukraine.

Sixthly, there was leadership failure. For Putin, the summit was a chance to show that Russia was not isolated. For Xi it was an opportunity to shore up credentials as global political leader. Both failed.

Lastly, summit did not focus on regional challenges: war in Ukraine; rippling impact of rising regional food prices; energy crisis roiling economies; and climate emergency in Pakistan.

Today, SCO is not suitable for China to push any world order. As a multilateral organization, it is much weaker than EU or ASEAN. Fortification of SCO remains daunting challenge.

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Kyrgyz-Tajik Conflict: Small States Becoming Victim In Games Of The Great Powers

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Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan sign protocol on regulation of armed conflict in border areas. Photo: © AKIpress News Agency

The Military conflict on September 14th 2022, on the border of two post-soviet countries- Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan took lives of more than 90 people from both sides. “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyzstan considers that the events which took place on September 14-17, 2022 necessary to state as a pre-planned armed act of aggression by Tajikistan against the sovereign state Kyrgyzstan. As a result of the inhuman actions of the Tajik side 59 citizens of Kyrgyzstan were killed and 140 were injured, about 140,000 people were forced to evacuate. But the Tajik officials and mass media actively accusing Kyrgyzstan of aggression and violation of non-attack agreements. Both sides blame each other for the outbreak of violence. As the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyzstan declared that the information of the Ministry of Foreign affairs and other authorities of Tajikistan did not correspond to reality. The Kyrgyz side has all the evidences (photo and video materials) that recorded the beginning of the aggression, as well as all the crimes committed by the Tajik military on the territory of Kyrgyzstan. If necessary, the Kyrgyz side is ready to provide this evidence.

Main Reasons.

The Kyrgyz-Tajik border 950 kilometers long. At the moment, Bishkek and Dushanbe have recognized only 520 kilometers of a common border, the rest of the sections since the collapse of the USSR are considered controversial and run along villages and roads.

The conflict has many aspects: here are territorial disputes, competition for the possession of water resources, and inter-ethnic problems. It is also associated with activities on the border of criminal structures, with smuggling, with drug trafficking. Radical religious organizations may also be involved in it. Therefore, all relations in the conflict zone between the Kyrgyz and Tajik sides are extremely aggravated. And the reason for the next clashes can be anything, any petty domestic situation.

In spring 2021 a similar bloody conflict took place on the border of two republics. As it turned out later, this escalation had domestic reasons. It was provoked by a dispute over the sharing of a water distribution point located between Kyrgyz and Tajik villages, which ended with a fight afterwards by killing each other by weapons. The state border between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is 950 kilometers, and 520 km of it has not yet passed the demarcation procedures. Despite that the Central Asian states gained independence more than thirty years ago.

The reasons of the latest invasion of Tajikistan to the territory of Kyrgyzstan still not clear. What could be the reason of breaking the Agreement of non invasion? Why it started the same day of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit? Why its happening after the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict? Why Post-Soviet countries are in war with each other? Scholars and some officials have various assumptions about the latest bloody clash. “There are provocateurs and third forces.” – says the head of the government of Kyrgyzstan Akylbek Zhaparov.

The military conflict started the same date of the summit of the SCO in Samarkand. On September 14, the governments of China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan signed a long-anticipated  agreement to push ahead with construction of a railroad linking these countries that will  establish a shorter route to Europe bypassing sanctions-hit Russia. So according to some Kyrgyz officials the clashes on Tajik and Kyrgyz borders started after the signing of the agreement about the construction of the railway-plausibly as a warning about the discontent of Russia, which throughout the history of the Central Asian countries has tried to make the region as economically dependent as possible. Moreover the President of Tadjikistan Emomali Rahmon wouldn’t invade into territory of Kyrgyzstan without Putin’s support.

If the first group of people considering that two countries are in this battle because of Russian tactics, the second group of people like the Deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Alexei Chepa noting that the cause of this conflict lies not only in unresolved disputes between the two countries. They suppose the external forces, primarily enemies of Russia, have decided to take advantage of the situation and create conflicts in the region. As they use the internal problems of Tajikistan and the conflict situation with Afghanistan, where the United States left a huge amount of weapons and a certain contingent of troops. And all this are aimed at using conflicts to further discredit Russia. We see this in the example of conflicts arising in Kazakhstan, Armenia and Azerbaijan and in some countries of the Caucasus.

This conflict would repeatedly escalate and next time would lead more death of civilians until the demarcation and delimitation of Kyrgyz-Tajik borders process would be finished and signed. This kind of military battles can lead to the unleashing of a large-scale interstate conflict, as well as to the destabilization of the situation in the Central Asian region as well.

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Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

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On September 15 and 16, 2022, the extended format of participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are scheduled to meet in Samarkand, the ancient Silk Road Karavansarai in Uzbekistan. SCO —founded in 2001— is the first international organization founded by Beijing. It started as the Shanghai Five with the task of demarcating borders between China and its Central Asian neighbors: Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Russia, and Tajikistan, following the breakup of the Soviet Union. The meeting in Samarkand marks the 21st Head of State summit of this organization, which is growing in international importance. All Heads of member states have confirmed their attendance.

SCO came to the attention of Washington policy makers, when Vladimir Putin used it as a vehicle to set a timeline on U.S. bases in Central Asia there to support operations in Afghanistan. Through direct engagement of President Bush with Chinese President Hu Jintao, this deadline was not repeated in the communique of the following year. This demonstrated Beijing’s unwillingness to have an open rift with Washington and made clear China’s leadership of the organization. Beijing’s interest in preventing anti-American statements has changed in the last 17 years. With the return of Great Power Competition in the Washington-Beijing relationship, who leads the SCO and what is on its agenda should be of considerable interest in Washington.

The SCO is no longer just a talk-shop between Russia and China with its Central Asian neighbors, but is now expanding to the Gulf, South Asia, South East Asia, and the Caucasus. The expanded membership of the SCO makes up 24% of the global GDP, more than half that of the G7 and more than that of the European Union in 2020. SCO’s expanded participant list accounts for 44% of the global population.

If those seeking membership status at the upcoming meeting in Samarkand achieve their goal, the SCO will include in its ranks: Azerbaijan and Armenia who recently fought a war in Nagorno-Karabakh; Saudi Arabia and Iran, competitors over the direction of the Gulf; and current members India and Pakistan, historic adversaries. Afghanistan and Mongolia are currently observer states in the organization. Partner countries of the organization are Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia, Nepal, Turkey, and Sri Lanka. The status of dialogue partner state will likely be granted to Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia in September. Bahrain and Maldives are next in line for the latter status.

In 2005, the US had an opportunity to pursue observer status with the SCO. Those who supported it, saw it as opportunity for the US to shape this organization and for Afghanistan to reconnect with its neighbors with American support. Others thought our being an observer of the SCO would lend legitimacy to this nascent organization. Yet, overtime, flaws in the latter stance surfaced and was repeated by the Obama Administration’s failed attempt to isolate China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

In a vote on April 7 for the suspension of Russia’s membership in the UN Human Rights Council, Turkey was the only participant in the expanded SCO out of 18 countries that voted in favor of the resolution. Of the member states, all voted against the resolution, with India and Pakistan abstaining.

For members of the SCO, energy highlights their importance on the global stage and is a tool used in their foreign policy. Following the 2022 summit, SCO states, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, among others, will account for over half of the world’s oil production annually.

Until 2020, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization played a largely regional role for China, the heart of which was Central Asia. Initially reluctant, the recent rapid expansion of the SCO shows that China realigned the organization from a regional one, to one capable of implementing its global ambitions.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization gained greater significance with the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, where an economically weaker Russia can turn to China, a partner with no limits and its leadership over the SCO.

At the 2022 Boao Forum, President Xi restated the goal of the 2021 SCO Dushanbe Declaration, where he articulated a world order not directed by the West. At this same summit, SCO members approved Iran’s membership despite international sanctions after a 15 year waiting period. Xi articulated in a flourish, calling it a community of a common destiny of mankind.

This has echoes of Chairman Mao’s vision of world relations, dating back to the 1970s. In meetings with Dr. Kissinger, Mao posited that imperialism and hegemony violate the world order. Instead, China should expand into what is now known as the Global South, including countries in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia. China’s mission lives on and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is becoming its vehicle.

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