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Indian Ocean or India’s Ocean?

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Authors: Antony Clement, Jessica Lucas

Indian Ocean has been a vital strategic trade route since the early medieval period, but was substantially exercised by the Europeans in the 16 to 19th century to gain an economic and political foothold within the region.

During the Cold War, India’s non-aligned foreign policy enacted by Prime Minister Nehru effectively dismantled the permanent shadow of superpower presence in the Indian Ocean. However, attempt to contain China’s ‘peaceful’ rise and eager stare towards the Indian Ocean signifies warning signs for Indian diplomacy and security. The unfolding events and environment seem to validate the statement by David Kaplan that “the Indian Ocean could be the 21st century playing field for the major powers.” The shadow of the Cold War in India’s backyard could be inevitable if New Delhi fails to respond effectively to both Beijing and Washington.

Under Prime Minister Modi’s direction, the foreign ministry’s articulation of foreign policy has the solid mind-set of “the Indian Ocean is India’s Ocean”. Modi’s visits to the Indian Ocean Islands can be seen in this regard, with the world closely monitoring the diplomatic engagements of the tour; from the renewed relationships within the Indian diasporas to Modi’s dress code, to the broad range of military and civilian assistance being offered to the strategically significant islands to veer Chinese influence from the Islands’ current security embrace. Cancelling his visit to the Maldives during his Indian Ocean tour, the Prime Minister citied political turmoil and arrest of opposition leader and former President Mohammed Rasheed as the main consideration. With mounting speculation of the Male governments’ intentions to prohibit Nasheed from participating in the next general election, along with Nasheeds vocalized criticism of Chinese influence in the region, India’s response was discouraging. With the long term objective of decreasing Chinese Naval presence in the region, New Delhi’s non-interference and non-intervention in the Maldives political situation is an appropriate, rationale and safe long term strategy, however over-looking and neglecting the issue entirely is a disappointing strategy to employ.

The potential forge of political tensions is exacerbated by the controversial Maldiven President Abdullah Yameen’s strategic trajectory toward China and the growing influence via the recently ratified law that allows foreign ownership of land. In a speech Yameen reassured intentions of maintaining the Indian Oceans demilitarized status; however, concerns mount in New Delhi as the move attracts significant commercial expansion from Beijing, with the inevitability of a Chinese naval presence following to protect economic interests.

At the moment it is unclear exactly how much this will impact Modi’s policy, but rhetoric grows surrounding the Indian Ocean Islands becoming vital ground for regional competition between the two dominant Asian powers. Amidst the race for great power status, the question rises of India’s action towards China’s influence and presence in the Indian Ocean. With decades of warm diplomatic relations between Modi and Beijing officials coupled with the ‘all weather friendship’ between China and Pakistan, the Indian Ocean cannot solely remain India’s Ocean. With China extending diplomatic relations and financial assistance to smaller and more distant islands, it is clear that Beijing does not intend to stop flexing its political and economic muscles. Modi’s current policies that seek to renew regional engagement and provide a more stable security role is proving effective, particularly as more Asian nations tilt from the increasingly aggressive influence of China. As naval expansion becomes the prominent strategy for Chinese containment, India’s position in the Indian Ocean is jeopardised by accusations of multi-lateral Chinese alienation and isolation tactics; such as the Quadrilateral Security Initiative. For New Delhi, this remains a contentious and complex issue of balancing security engagements with Indo-Pacific neighbours, as well as embracing China economically but simultaneously attempting to restrain their maritime influence, creating a fragile environment in the Indian Ocean.

India’s fears of permanent Chinese expansion into the Indian Ocean have been validated with the $20 billion dollar ‘Maritime Silk Road’ project announcement by Beijing. With commercial and military infrastructures already a primary concern for New Delhi, the project aims to fully expand into the Indian Ocean to utilize the lucrative trade routes and protect Chinese commercial interests and vital energy lines from Africa and the Gulf.

This will inevitably sharpen regional tensions as India continues to rapidly modernize and expand its navy along with embarking on more naval exercises with East and South Asian nations. As China and Pakistan’s relationship tightens; with Pakistan gaining more advanced military hardware from China, China will gain complete access to Pakistan’s coastline and the peripheries of the Indian Ocean.

New Delhi is greatly aware of the growing significance that the Indian Ocean strategically offers in international politics. Coupled with China’s continued attempts to gain hegemony within the region, Modi has made a decisive break from New Delhi’s decades-old foreign policy and ambivalence, to the insistence that India becomes primarily responsible for ensuring regional peace and stability. The reinvigoration of stagnant diplomatic relationships and application of more ambitious strategic policies by Modi, is building a foundation for India to regain the Indian Ocean sphere of influence without relying on geographic advantage.

The multi-faceted relationship between Russia and India continues to ensure the strategic vision for India’s backyard. The second largest market for sales for the Russian defence industry, India is also the only recipient of Russian strategic weapons. New Delhi also continues to be held in high regard within Moscow through a combination of history, political relations, expansion of cooperation, and commonalities within global policies and interest. Russia has noted the benefits India can provide regionally and globally in becoming a strong military centre, and is willing to support and supply New Delhi to ensure this rise of power and influence.

As the Indo-Pacific region transcends to become a central hub for global economics and strategy, Prime Minister Tony Abbot and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are also developing and deepening their already warm relationship to ensure regional stability. Both nations aim to secure trade routes and reduce the risk of regional destabilisation by supporting for economic interdependence between emerging and major nations in the Indo-Pacific area. By building a solid foundation of shared values and interests, emphasizing cooperation over competition and highlighting the importance of an open dialogue, the potential for misinterpretation, tension and escalation into conflict is not entirely removed, but is significantly lowered.

The recognition by several prominent nations that India is a critical role in supporting the security environment developing across the Indian Ocean not only provides testament in terms of New Delhi’s capabilities in exercising regional power and willingness to expand its security framework.

With the Indian Ocean rising to become a significant but tense corner of the world, particularly as Asia and Africa continue to house the world’s fastest growing economies, India’s management of its own backyard provide authenticating credentials as a reliable and valuable Asian superpower.

Antony Clement is a Senior Editor (Indo-Pacific), Modern Diplomacy, an online journal. He is a researcher in Indian Foreign Policy. He is currently working on two books - “The Best Teacher” and “Diplomacy in Tough Times”. His research centres on India’s diplomacy & foreign policy and extends to domestic politics, economic policy, security issues, and international security matters, including India’s relations with the US, the BRICS nations, the EU and Australia. His recent book is “Discover your talents.”

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South Asia

When Politics turns Personal; The Toxic Allegations & Accusations become a Norm

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Image source: timeofpakistan.com

There is something happening beneath this political turmoil which is NOT looking good!!

Whenever Political landscape turns into a Personal battleground, defeats become unacceptable. These past few days are a perfect case study to see that how Political elite in Pakistan has done whatever it took it to stay in power. In this power grab scenario, there could be numerous losses including the integrity of institutions. We have unfortunately entered into a very dangerous phase, where some political stakeholders have put all stakes at risk, where they have stretched their limits beyond a constitutional limit, all to gather mass support, all to stay in power and avoid defeat. Is it a threat of losing power? Is it a double game? Is it a practical hybrid war we are fighting?  Whatever it is, it doesn’t seem to be good. All is at stake, all is at risk and all is toxic.

As if the political temperature was not noxious enough, Shireen Mazari Saga took place. Once again, accusations, allegations and assumptions started pouring in against the state institutions. Soon after her arrest, her daughter, a lawyer herself Imaan Zainab Mazari alleged that her mother was beaten by male police officers during the arrest. But few minutes later, a video clip surfaced that showed clearly that her mother was arrested by Female Police officers in broad daylight and as per the law. Lie number 1 of the daughter stood exposed. Within moments, without any cogent evidence the lady, known for many controversies in the past targeted state institution for such an act, although the anti-corruption already had taken responsibility of her arrest.

Abuse of power can never be tolerated, regardless of who it targets or from where it emanates. This mantra is true and everyone has an equal belief on it but let’s take a deep dive to see that how politics turned dirty in this case, how blame game took place and how this entire episode was used as a tool to churn propaganda against Army leadership and Armed Forces.

1. The anti-corruption police had arrested Shireen Mazari and she herself accepted that Prime Minister and Interior minister were responsible for my arrest. But the mother daughter nexus brazenly started blaming institutions without any solid evidence. Shouldn’t there be an inquiry on this too?

2. PTI was always of the opinion that why courts were opened mid night to send IK packing while he wasn’t listening to anyone however when same court gave a verdict in favor of PTI ex minister, late night, it was celebrated and much appreciated by Shireen Mazari & IK who have been spearheading anti judicial tirade until recently. Isn’t it blatant hypocrisy? Judicial inquiry has been ordered by the Court which is a positive sign, but the serious allegations which Mazari nexus have raised must also be inquired during this newly formed judicial inquiry. Should the Judiciary not question them on hurling these baseless allegations?

3. The present government, whose Police itself arrested Shireen Mazari disowned this attempt. Attorney General displayed his ignorance about the matter in front of the court. So, somehow the government created this impression in the public eye that they are not to be blamed for the arrest of Shireen Mazari. Was it a double game? Or a deliberate effort to discredit institutions?

Pakistan is already facing serious economic downfall, political uncertainty and civil strife. PTI has also announced Long March to Islamabad on 25th May which is likely to further exacerbate already fragile political and economic instability. It has become quite evident now for achieving petty political ends, our political elite has no serious resolve to address the crisis confronting the country. Country is being deliberately pushed to limits of economic and political dead end. The political immaturity and lack of vision to handle the crisis situation is also hurting the repute of institutions amidst internal political wrangling. If political leadership doesn’t come to grips of the critical situation prevailing which is likely to aggravate further in coming days, people of Pakistan in particular and the country in general are likely to suffer unprecedented damage. Political elite must put its acts together and steer the country out of prevalent political and economic crisis by showing sagacity and political wisdom until it’s too late.

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Accusations to Acknowledgement: The Battle of Article 63 A

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The weather is heating up. As the May is ending, Political temperatures are soaring. The fate regarding the country’s political and economic stability will be measured in the upcoming days. Earlier, PDM built momentum by taking on institutions. Maryam Nawaz raised the temperature by targeting key personalities and institutions. Allegations were bursting against the institutions in all dimensions. Today, we witness reversal of roles. Accusations have been outflowing in every Jalsa by PTI. But now suddenly, the “accusations” turned into “acknowledgment”. “Complaints” started transforming into “Compliments”. Is it the change of narrative? Is it another U-turn? Or is it the restoration of confidence in the institutions? Where will this chaos end?

The Supreme Court’s “decision” or as they say “opinion” or “binding” on Article 63 A has raised some pertinent questions on the status of CM Punjab election? In the interpretation of Article 63 A of the constitution, the Supreme court categorically condemns the practice of horse trading by calling it “a cancer afflicting the body politic”. Supreme Court in its decision of 3-2 rejected the vote count of these dissident members against the party directives. So the future of the Chief Executive of Punjab is now under threat because it is contrary to what happened in National Assembly. The political instability continues and the situation is messy.

In light of this verdict, Hamza has a support of 172 MPAs in Punjab assembly but at the same time, he also has 4 dissenting members which draws the figure to 168. Now further moving ahead, PTI and alliance also has a collective figure of 168 votes minus 21 dissenting members. The situation here in Punjab is way too complex now. A support of 186 members is required for a clear majority in Punjab assembly to formulate a government. This current Punjab government can either fall through a governor led vote of no confidence or a Supreme court order. The governor even has a right to dissolve the assembly with his discretionary powers according to Article 112 (2) of the constitution. Supreme Court has already made its decision on cross voting against Party fiat.  Now legal experts are interpreting the decision in their own dictionaries. What will happen in Punjab? What will happen on the federal level? Will there be an election call? If so, what will be the care taker setup? Will there be a fresh mandate? Who will make the hard economic decisions?  Lot needs to be answered in these crucial times.

From “My judges disappointed me” to “Thankyou Supreme Court”, a lot has happened and a lot is ready to take place. Islamabad is full of gossips, interpretations, whispers and predictions these days. There is something seething under this political turmoil. The Red zone is under a lot of pressure whether politically or economically. Pre – Elections, Elections and then Post elections, we have a lot of consequences of a lot of hard decisions. But hard decisions need to be taken. Question is who is ready to make the hard choices? Be Afraid!!

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South Asia

The sizzling “Political Matrix”; What will happen now?

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Politics in Pakistan is unfortunately leaving scars that will fade away not that easily. Islamabad today is wrapped in thick political clouds since past few weeks. These last few weeks have altered all assumptions and calculations in the national political matrix.  While the political landscape today is sizzling with intensity, aggression and strain the economy is shattering every day.  Who is to blame for? What will happen now? And will sanity prevail?

The entire edifice of the “conspiracy mantra” which even made PTI commit violation of the constitution stands demolished today. It was one of the worst advices Imran khan could ever get from his party among the list of many others. Sadly he made his entire politics captive to this conspiracy myth.  But today no one questions them on the impact it had on our foreign policy. US today feels betrayed, Saudis not ready to give aid, Chinese worried about their stakes and it continues.  So diplomatically this conspiracy mantra has damaged Pakistan like anything.

Imran Khan’s followers see nothing wrong in what he says and what he does. They absolutely reject all the facts, all the logics and embrace the rhetoric which is fuelling more today with a greater intensity. Imran khan is leading this campaign more aggressively. Khan very well knows that bringing large crowds to Islamabad will have an impact only if there is some kind of aggression.  The leaders on different occasions already hinted towards an aggressive March. He very well realizes that the figure of 2.5 Million is unrealistic but keeping in view the size of Islamabad, 0.1 Million crowd will even be perceived as a bigger crowd. So can he force the early elections at this stage? How will the government react to it? For instance let’s accept this narrative that the pressure of crowd aids PTI in getting an early election call and PTI wins it. So now what next? How will you deal with the mighty US? The economy is already sinking. You need aid to feed it but no one is providing you that. Then how will you stop dollar from going above 200? How will you provide relief from the soaring fuel prices when you won’t have money for a subsidy even? Forget about one lakh jobs and 50 lakh houses.

From the past few weeks we haven’t heard any PTI leader telling any economic plan or any diplomatic plan to revive relations. How will you deal with the IFI’s, World Bank & IMF when they’re all US controlled and as per your narrative you won’t accept “Amreeka ki Ghulami” or USA’s dictatorship.

So now what options the present regime has? The government would of course like to stop this building dangerous momentum of “Azadi March”. They would not like any big clash in Islamabad which results in bigger mess and chaos. The PDM government also has a much bigger fish to deal with, the same sinking economy. They came into power with this narrative to fix economy as former Premiere was unable to do it.  The key cabinet members made more than two different official visits.  The instructions are coming from London today as a decisive power so who will run the government? Who will run the system? Will the IMF aid? What will be the upcoming budget about? This upcoming budget is a bigger risk for this government along with an already announced to Long march call. Khan has already played a dangerous narrative especially with the blame of another conspiracy being made about his Life.   

The stakes, the narrative and the politics of every party is at risk today.  But above that, Pakistan is at risk. The dread is in the air. The end of May will be heated ferociously in Islamabad, whether politically or meteorologically.

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