Connect with us

Eastern Europe

Hic Dracones: Corruption across the Caspian

Published

on

Corruption is an issue and dilemma for every country in the world. No state is immune. No culture has developed a vaccine. Despite this, the issue of corruption and systemic criminality is arguably more important in regions of the world currently undergoing in one form or another democratic transition and entrance into the global market economy.

Their successful consolidation and emergence signals opportunity and prosperity not just for the titular nations in question but for the global community as a whole: the world is indeed a truly interdependent economic amalgamation. As such success or failure does not just elevate or degrade one particular region but carries with it cascade effects that can potentially impact the lives of countless hundreds of millions of people the world over. By utilizing statistical rankings and indexes covering no less than ten categories, a fairly stark picture emerges for the Caspian littoral nations. What it shows is a region clearly struggling to make progress in fundamental aspects of structural freedom and guarantees, which signal a lack of real opportunity for popular prosperity and stability. Worse, when these general rankings are conceptualized within a single graphic at the end of the article, and compared against a modern consolidated democracy fully integrated into the global economy (Germany), the journey still left for the Caspian Five is seen as both long and rocky. This does not mean it cannot be traversed or the Caspian is doomed to eternal political and economic doldrums. But it does arguably mean the road taken so far is likely not the best path to the greatest future.

Below are the rankings provided from numerous quantitative studies collected and freely published by Transparency International. I have compiled the ones most significant for the purposes of ascertaining corruption and structural criminality for the Caspian Five in specific. The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) ranks 175 countries around the world, giving a very sharp and important estimation of how people within the examined countries themselves consider their own problems and challenges. The average Caspian score is a dismal 138 out of 175. Put another way, the Caspian Five score a ‘25’ on a 100-point scale in terms of a general societal corruption perception. The region averages only 13% in terms of controlling corruption governmentally, with Turkmenistan standing out in particular by scoring an absolutely abysmal 2% overall.

The average Rule of Law percentile score for the Caspian region is a low 25%, with Turkmenistan again somewhat wrecking the curve by scoring only 4%. The very interesting Voice and Accountability percentile rank puts the region as a whole at only 13%. While it is true Turkmenistan continues its tradition of bringing up the rear for Caspian countries, scoring a quite laughable 1% overall, Iran also scored in the single digits, achieving only 7% as a score. Ironically, it was Russia that scored the highest in this category, though it was still a relatively poor 21%. Press freedom is a particularly egregious subject matter for the Caspian littoral states: out of 179 evaluated countries around the world, the region averages only 162nd place. Again, Iran and Turkmenistan are the worst offenders, scoring an amazing 175th and 177th respectively out of 179 countries. But again, with the average score of 162, this means every single country surrounding the Caspian has quite a long way to go before it can consider its access to information and freedom of expression to be even slightly adequate. Finally, the undervalued but crucially important survey of judicial independence gives the Caspian region a less-than-stellar 95th out of 142 ranked countries. This score, however, comes with a mitigating caveat as Turkmenistan simply was not able to be included in the evaluation for lack of verifiable data. This of course allows one to conclude that if Turkmenistan had been able to produce a score it would have inevitably only made the regional index worse.

 

Country Azerbaijan Russia Iran Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Germany
Corruption Perceptions Index 126 out of 175 136 out of 175 136 out of 175 126 out of 175 169 out of 175 12 out of 175
Score 29/100 27/100 27/100 29/100 17/100 79/100
Control of Corruption 9% 13% 20% 15% 2% 93%
GDP 51.77 Billion USD 1.48 Trillion USD 331 Billion USD 149 Billion USD 20 Billion USD 3.28 Trillion USD
Open Budget Index Score 43 60 N/A 38 N/A 68
Judicial Independence 83 out of 142 123 out of 142 66 out of 142 111 out of 142 N/A 7 out of 142
Score 3.4/7 2.6/7 3.8/7 2.7/7 N/A 6.3/7
Rule of Law Percentile Rank 22% 26% 20% 32% 4% 92%
Voice and Accountability Percentile Rank 12% 21% 7% 14% 1% 93%
Press Freedom Index 162 out of 179 142 out of 179 175 out of 179 154 out of 179 177 out of 179 16 out of 179

 

In vivid contrast to the statistics above, an exemplar country study is provided below in Germany. Each of the ten categories used to evaluate the Caspian littoral states were similarly used on Germany. While it is arguably unfair to compare the Caspian Five with an advanced and stable Western European country, it is nonetheless important to provide a counter-balance case study to show how it is possible to score at the other end of the spectrum with these indexes. Some of the comparative contrast between the two sides is quite dramatic: Germany has a CPI of 12, with corruption control, voice and accountability, and rule of law percentiles all above 90%. Accordingly, both press freedom and judicial independence rankings are extremely high in Germany. In my opinion this is not explained as a testimony to a longer period of time under democratized rule and free-market capitalism in Germany: after all, it was only the middle of the 20th century when that country was under the thumb of extreme fascism. Rather, it indicates that when a country transparently and systematically commits to holistic structural transformation, then dramatic improvement can occur and concretize. In that way the case study can be an inspiration for the Caspian region, if also a rather demanding and uncompromising one.

Finally, for the sake of clarity and graphical review for the readers, all six countries are presented together across six of the most important structural indexes. When done in this way a decidedly negative tendency can be seen within the comparison: when a high positive ranking is desired, Germany stands alone; when a high negative ranking is possible, the Caspian states all seem to score in lock-step with each other, whereas Germany is far off the mark. Most fascinating of all is to see how regional ‘brotherhood’ really does occur, regardless of culture, religion, ethnicity, or history: across the board all five littoral states score remarkably similarly in the six documented categories. This seems to demand that future analysis and research needs to be done on just how pervasive and pernicious corruption tends to be and that solutions and strategies to combat it really cannot rely on traditional sociological or cultural traits and traditions.

A Portrait of Anti-Progress? The Caspian Corruption Table

chart 01

Key:

ConCorr% : Control of Corruption Percentage (out of 100%)

Judicial: Assessment of an Independent Judiciary (sample size: 142 nations)

CPI: Corruption Perception Index (sample size: 175 nations)

Rule of Law: Percentile of Structural Commitment to the Rule of Law (out of 100%)

V and A%: Voice and Accountability Percentile (out of 100%)

Free Press: Overall Ranking Estimating Freedom of the Press vs. Government Control (sample size: 179 nations)

This investigation was not conducted to spite or humiliate the Caspian littoral states. Rather it sought to shine an insightful light into the immensity of the problem of corruption across the region, within every state. Ways to fix this issue are likely not forthcoming anytime soon. But that may also be partly explained by an individualistic approach that has prevented the Caspian Five from realizing they are much more likely to be effective by creating strategies that bridge across the region. Just as negative trends tend to breed more negative, so can positive success become a catalyst for future successes across new areas. One can hope this will be the case for the Caspian. Otherwise, the region will remain best designated on corruption maps with the warning Hic Dracones: Here be dragons.

Dr. Matthew Crosston is Executive Vice Chairman of ModernDiplomacy.eu and chief analytical strategist of I3, a strategic intelligence consulting company. All inquiries regarding speaking engagements and consulting needs can be referred to his website: https://profmatthewcrosston.academia.edu/

Continue Reading
Comments

Eastern Europe

Unhappy Iran Battles for Lost Influence in South Caucasus

Published

on

Events that might not matter elsewhere in the world matter quite a lot in the South Caucasus. Given a recent history of conflict, with all the bad feelings that generates, plus outside powers playing geostrategic games, and its growing importance as an energy corridor between Europe and Central Asia, the region is vulnerable. 

This has been worsened by the two-year-long Western absence of engagement. In 2020, Europe and the U.S. were barely involved as the second Nagorno-Karabakh war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan, leaving about 7,000 dead. With tensions now on the rise between Azerbaijan and Iran, Western uninterest is again evident, even though this might have wider ramifications for future re-alignment in the South Caucasus. 

The drumbeat of Iranian activity against Azerbaijan has been consistent in recent months. Iran is getting increasingly edgy about Israel’s presence in the South Caucasus — hardly surprising given Israel’s painfully well-targeted assassination and computer hacking campaigns against nuclear staff and facilities — and especially its growing security and military ties with Azerbaijan, with whom Iran shares a 765km (430 mile) border. Iran has also voiced concern about the presence in the region of Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries, who were used as Azeri assault troops last year.  

Much of the anger has been played out in military exercises. The Azeri military has been busy since its victory, exercising near the strategic Lachin corridor which connects the separatist region to Armenia, and in the Caspian Sea, where it has jointly exercised with Turkish personnel. Iran, in turn, sent units to the border region this month for drills of an unstated scale. 

This week, the Azeri and Iranian foreign ministers agreed to dial down the rhetoric amid much talk of mutual understanding. Whether that involved promises regarding the Israeli presence or a pledge by Iran to abandon a newly promised road to Armenia was not stated. 

Iran’s behavior is a recognition of the long-term strategic changes caused by the Armenian defeat last year. Iran has been sidelined. Its diplomatic initiatives have failed, and it has been unwelcome in post-conflict discussions. 

It is true that Iran was never a dominant power in the South Caucasus. Unlike Russia or Turkey, the traditional power brokers, it has not had a true ally. Iran was certainly part of the calculus for states in the region, but it was not feared, like Russia or Turkey. And yet, the South Caucasus represents an area of key influence, based on millennia of close political and cultural contacts. 

Seen in this light, it is unsurprising that Iran ratcheted up tensions with Azerbaijan. Firstly, this reasserted the involvement of the Islamic Republic in the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. It was also a thinly-veiled warning to Turkey that its growing ambitions and presence in the region are seen as a threat. In Iran’s view, Turkey’s key role as an enabler of Azeri irridentism is unmistakable. 

Turkish involvement has disrupted the foundations of the South Caucasian status quo established in the 1990s. To expect Turkey to become a major power there is an overstretch, but it nevertheless worries Iran. For example, the recent Caspian Sea exercises between Azerbaijan and Turkey appear to run counter to a 2018 agreement among the sea’s littoral states stipulating no external military involvement. 

The Caspian Sea has always been regarded by Iranians as an exclusive zone shared first with the Russian Empire, later the Soviets, and presently the Russian Federation. Other littoral states play a minor role. This makes Turkish moves in the basin and the recent improvement of ties between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan an unpleasant development for Iran — fewer barriers to the Trans-Caspian Pipeline threatens the Islamic Republic’s ability to block the project.  

This is where Iranian views align almost squarely with the Kremlin’s. Both fear Turkish progress and new energy routes. The new Iranian leadership might now lean strongly toward Russia. With Russia’s backing, opposition to Turkey would become more serious; Iran’s foreign minister said this month that his country was seeking a “big jump” in relations with Russia. 

The fact is that the region is increasingly fractured and is being pulled in different directions by the greater powers around it. This state of affairs essentially dooms the prospects of pan-regional peace and cooperation initiatives. Take the latest effort by Russia and Turkey to introduce a 3+3 platform with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, as well as Iran. Beyond excluding the West, disagreements will eventually preclude any meaningful progress. There is no unity of purpose between the six states and there are profound disagreements. 

Thus, trouble will at some point recur between Iran and Azerbaijan, and by extension Turkey. Given the current situation, and Iran’s visible discontent, it is likely it will take some kind of initiative lest it loses completely its position to Turkey and Russia. 

Author’s note: first published in cepa

Continue Reading

Eastern Europe

Right-wing extremist soldiers pose threat to Lithuania

Published

on

It is no secret that Lithuania has become a victim of German army’s radicalization. Could this country count on its partners further or foreign military criminals threaten locals?

It is well known that Germany is one of the largest provider of troops in NATO. There are about 600 German troops in Lithuania, leading a Nato battlegroup. According to Lithuanian authorities, Lithuania needs their support to train national military and to protect NATO’s Central and Northern European member states on NATO’s eastern flank.

Two sides of the same coin should be mentioned when we look at foreign troops in Lithuania.

Though Russian threat fortunately remains hypothetical, foreign soldiers deployed in the country cause serious trouble. Thus, the German defence minister admitted that reported this year cases of racist and sexual abuse in a German platoon based in Lithuania was unacceptable.

Members of the platoon allegedly filmed an incident of sexual assault against another soldier and sang anti-Semitic songs. Later more allegations emerged of sexual and racial abuse in the platoon, including soldiers singing a song to mark Adolf Hitler’s birthday on 20 April this year.

It turned out that German media report that far-right abuses among the Lithuania-based troops had already surfaced last year. In one case, a soldier allegedly racially abused a non-white fellow soldier. In another case, four German soldiers smoking outside a Lithuanian barracks made animal noises when a black soldier walked past.

Lithuania’s Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas said later that the investigation was carried out by Germany and that Lithuania was not privy to its details. The more so, Lithuania is not privy to its details even now. “We are not being informed about the details of the investigation. […] The Lithuanian military is not involved in the investigation, nor can it be,” Anušauskas told reporters, stressing that Germany was in charge of the matter.

Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer, German defence minister, said that these misdeeds would be severely prosecuted and punished. Time has passed, and the details are not still known.

It should be said Germany has for years struggled to modernize its military as it becomes more involved in Nato operations. Nevertheless problems existed and have not been solved yet. According to the annual report on the state of the Bundeswehr made in 2020 by Hans-Peter Bartel, then armed forces commissioner for the German Bundestag, Germany’s army “has too little materiel, too few personnel and too much bureaucracy despite a big budget increase.” Mr Bartels’ report made clear that the Bundeswehr continues to be plagued by deep-seated problems. Recruitment remains a key problem. Mr Bartels said 20,000 army posts remained unfilled, and last year the number of newly recruited soldiers stood at just over 20,000, 3,000 fewer than in 2017. The other problem is radicalization of the armed forces.

Apparently, moral requirements for those wishing to serve in the German army have been reduced. Federal Volunteer Military Service Candidate must be subjected to a thorough medical examination. Desirable to play sports, have a driver’s license and be able to eliminate minor malfunctions in the motor, to speak at least one foreign language, have experience of communicating with representatives of other nationalities, be initiative and independent. After the general the interview follows the establishment of the candidate’s suitability for service in certain types of armed forces, taking into account his wishes. Further candidate passes a test on a computer. He will be asked if he wants study a foreign language and attend courses, then serve in German French, German-Dutch formations or institutions NATO.

So, any strong and healthy person could be admitted, even though he or she could adhere to far-right views or even belong to neo-Nazi groups. Such persons served in Lithuania and, probably, serve now and pose a real threat to Lithuanian military, local population. Neo-Nazism leads to cultivating racial inequalities. The main goal of the neo-Nazis is to cause disorder and chaos in the country, as well as to take over the army and security organs. Lithuanian authorities should fully realize this threat and do not turn a blind eye to the criminal behaviour of foreign military in Lithuania. There is no room to excessive loyalty in this case.

Continue Reading

Eastern Europe

Lithuanian foreign policy: Image is everything

Published

on

It seems as if Lithuanian government takes care of its image in the eyes of EU and NATO partners much more than of its population. Over the past year Lithuania managed to quarrel with such important for its economy states like China and Belarus, condemned Hungary for the ban on the distribution of images of LGBT relationships among minors, Latvia and Estonia for refusing to completely cut energy from Belarus. Judging by the actions of the authorities, Lithuania has few tools to achieve its political goals. So, it failed to find a compromise and to maintain mutually beneficial relations with economic partners and neighbours. The authorities decided to achieve the desired results by demanding from EU and NATO member states various sanctions for those countries that, in their opinion, are misbehaving.

Calling for sanctions and demonstrating its “enduring political will”, Lithuania exposed the welfare of its own population. Thus, district heating prices will surge by around 30 percent on average across Lithuania.

The more so, prices for biofuels, which make up 70 percent of heat production on average, are now about 40 higher than last year, Taparauskas, a member of the National Energy Regulatory Council (VERT) said.

“Such a huge jump in prices at such a tense time could threaten a social crisis and an even greater increase in tensions in society. We believe that the state must take responsibility for managing rising prices, especially given the situation of the most vulnerable members of society and the potential consequences for them. All the more so as companies such as Ignitis or Vilnius heating networks “has not only financial resources, but also a certain duty again,” sums up Lukas Tamulynas, the chairman of the LSDP Momentum Vilnius movement.

It should be said, that according to the Lithuanian Department of Statistics, prices for consumer goods and services have been rising for the eighth month in a row. According to the latest figures, the annual inflation rate is five percent.

Earlier it became known that in 2020 every fifth inhabitant of Lithuania was below the poverty risk line.

Pensioners are considered one of the most vulnerable groups in Lithuania. In 2019, Lithuania was included in the top five EU anti-leaders in terms of poverty risk for pensioners. The share of people over 65 at risk of poverty was 18.7 percent.

In such situation sanctions imposed on neighbouring countries which tightly connected to Lithuanian economy and directly influence the welfare of people in Lithuania are at least damaging. The more so, according Vladimir Andreichenko, the speaker of the House of Representatives of the Belarus parliament, “the unification of the economic potentials of Minsk and Moscow would be a good response to sanctions.” It turned out that Lithuania itself makes its opponents stronger. Such counter-productiveness is obvious to everyone in Lithuania except for its authorities.

Continue Reading

Publications

Latest

International Law2 mins ago

Debunking the Sovereignty: From Foucault to Agamben

“Citing the end of Volume I of The History of Sexuality, Agamben notes that for Foucault, the “threshold of modernity”...

South Asia6 hours ago

Did India invade Kashmir?

Pakistan has decided to observe 27th October as Black Day. This was the day when, according to India’s version, it...

Environment8 hours ago

Landmark decision gives legal teeth to protect environmental defenders

A 46-strong group of countries across the wider European region has agreed to establish a new legally binding mechanism that...

Environment10 hours ago

Plastic pollution on course to double by 2030

Plastic pollution in oceans and other bodies of water continues to grow sharply and could more than double by 2030, according to an assessment released on Thursday by the UN Environment...

Americas12 hours ago

Global Warming And COP26: Issues And Politics

The president’s massive social services and infrastructure package is under consideration by Congress.  The problem is Senator Joe Manchin, a...

International Law14 hours ago

The End of the West in Self-annihilation (Intentionality, Directionality and Outcome)

A state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity.-Definition of Health,...

New Social Compact16 hours ago

Women in leadership ‘must be the norm’

We can no longer exclude half of humanity from international peace and security matters, the UN chief told the Security...

Trending