Welcome to the Caspian Daily, where you will find the 10 most important things you need to know on Caspian Sea Region. We appreciate ideas, reports, news and interesting articles. Send along to Caspian[at]moderndiplomacy.eu or on Twitter: @DGiannakopoulos
1The Iranian minister of science, research and technology says the Islamic Republic is ready to boost “science diplomacy” with other countries following the removal of anti-Iran sanctions with the implementation of an agreement between the country and the P5+1.Mohammad Farhadi said in an interview with IRNA on Thursday night that Iran has, over the past few months, made arrangements for cooperation with a number of regional and European universities. He said that among the priorities of his ministry in the post-sanctions era is shoring up scientific collaboration with other countries through professor and student exchange programs, holding joint scientific courses, and if necessary, establishing foreign university branches in Iran, including in free zones.
2A landmark gas deal between China and Russia that has been years in the making looks set to be finalized, as the countries prepare to mark the 70th anniversary of victory in World War II.”The gas deal looks very likely to be confirmed at the final moment because of its large scale and importance due to international practices,” Andrey Denisov, the Russian ambassador to China said, adding that he was sure that there will be an agreement but that the details won’t be disclosed until the last minute. In May 2014, after 20 years of negotiations, China and Russia agreed to build a natural gas supply line, known as the “eastern route”, that is supposed to deliver 38 billion cubic meters of gas to Beijing and Northeast China annually, starting in 2018. Chen Yurong, an expert with the China Institute of International Studies, said that the Russian ambassador might have been referring to the “western route”.Negotiations on the western route, a 2,800-kilometer supply line to deliver 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually to China’s Xinjiang Ugyur autonomous region over 30 years, began in 2006. [ChinaDaily]
3OSCE Minsk Group plans to organize a meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in September, the group’s U.S. Co-chair said. In an interview with Azerbaijani news agency APA, James Warlick stated that the Co-chairs plan to travel to the region, but failed to mention certain dates. He also noted that it is highly necessary to reaffirm the sides’ commitment to the peaceful settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.The American diplomat once again stated that “the return of Artsakh adjacent areas is one of the key elements of negotiations.”
4The International Atomic Energy Agency and Kazakhstan signed an agreement on Thursday to locate the world’s first bank of low-enriched uranium (LEU) in the ex-Soviet nation to ensure fuel supplies for nuclear power stations and encourage nuclear non-proliferation.The $US150 million ($209 million) bank, containing the raw material for making fuel for nuclear power plants, will be built in Ust-Kamenogorsk in northeastern Kazakhstan. It will be governed by Kazakhstan’s laws but will be fully managed and operated by the IAEA.The storage facility, set to become fully operational in 2017, is intended to provide IAEA member states with confidence in a steady and predictable supply of fuel for nuclear power stations even if other supply mechanisms are disrupted.
5Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has discussed trade, economic, energy, and transport cooperation with his visiting Turkmen counterpart, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov. The Turkmen state news agency reported that the talks in Kabul on August 27 touched upon the project to build the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline.The sides also discussed the construction of a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan (TAT) railway, which is currently under construction. Ghani’s office quoted the Afghan president as saying plans to transfer electricity to Pakistan via Afghanistan were also discussed.
6The evolution of negative Western narrative on Russia. “Russia made significant changes from the Soviet totalitarian system, but instead of acknowledging this progress, Russia is characterized by exploiting misleading historical analogies as ‘closed’, associated with the KGB, the Soviet Union, ‘relentless propaganda’, ‘government control’. The opinions of the Russian citizens on their political system or their president as well as the actions by the Russian state that do not fit the description of ‘dictatorial power’ are typically omitted from the Western media coverage. The result of this “selection bias” builds up over time to make an overall negative image of the country and the president” Angela Borozna for OpEdNews.
7Russia and China are developing drones that could make stealth aircraft obsolete. According to Zarchary Keck writing in The National Interest, both Beijing and Moscow have begun development of unmanned aerial vehicles that have the goal of finding, detecting, and possibly even eliminating enemy stealth aircraft. China’s stealth detection drone, called the Divine Eagle, is believed to be specially built to counter stealth aircraft while they are still far from the Chinese mainland. Popular Science notes that the drone’s “long range anti-stealth capabilities can be used against both aircraft, like the B-2 bomber, and warships such as the DDG-1000 destroyer … the Chinese air force could quickly intercept stealthy enemy aircraft, missiles and ships well before they come in range of the Mainland.” The Divine Eagle features multiple different radar systems, including X/UHF low band radar systems, according to Popular Science. These systems could be used to track stealth aircraft like the F-35 at long distances, as most stealth technology is created to avoid high band radar systems, thereby eroding one of the key advantages of the fifth-generation plane. [Business Insider]
8Azerbaijan is one of Italy’s main trade partners, Manuela Traldi, Italy-Azerbaijan Trade Institute ITAZERCOM head, said at a presentation entitled “Investments in Azerbaijan: Business Environment and Opportunities.” The presentation was held as part of the EXPO-2015 international exhibition in the Italian city of Milan. AZPROMO head Rufat Mammadov made a presentation on the investment environment and business opportunities of Azerbaijan. He informed the participants about the economy of the country and Azerbaijan-Italy economic and trade relations. He said that as a result of the successfully carried out socio-economic policy, Azerbaijan has achieved sustainable economic growth. The country has created a favorable investment and business environment, which led to its becoming a foreign investor.
9Troubles in Russia, China slow Kremlin’s pivot to Asia. A growing economic crisis in Russia and a growth slowdown in China that has rattled world markets means about $113 billion worth of joint projects ranging from gas pipelines to power grids have been stalled or delayed.With a major crackdown on corruption also in progress in China, and Russia hit by sanctions, falling oil prices and a collapsing currency, some joint Russian-Chinese projects may be delayed indefinitely, industry sources and analysts say. The developments represent a major challenge to President Vladimir Putin’s strategy of a pivot to Asia, spurred last year by the imposition of Western sanctions on Moscow for its role in the Ukraine crisis” Katya Golubkova and Denis Pinchuk for The Japan Times.
10Under the annual military cooperation plan between Azerbaijan and Turkey, a new group of the aircraft of Turkey’s Air Force has arrived in Azerbaijan to participate in the TurAz Falcon 2015 exercises being held between the two countries’ air forces. More than 30 means of aviation as well as MiQ-29, F-16 fighters jets, Su-25 strike assault, F-4E bomber, C-130 Hercules military transport planes, Mi-35 combat, Mi-17 and Sikorski UH-60 combat transport, Cougar AS532 search and rescue helicopters are participating in the exercises, the Defense Ministry said.
The COVID-19 Shock to Kazakhstan’s Economy Largest in Two Decades
For the first time since the late 1990s Kazakhstan’s economy is expected to contract by projected 3 percent in 2020 with a moderate recovery by 2.5 percent in 2021, according to the World Bank’s latest Kazakhstan Economic Update (Summer 2020) – Navigating the Crisis report.
Although Kazakhstan’s GDP showed mild growth at 2.3 percent in the first quarter, economic activities weakened in the following months as commodity prices dropped, trade declined, and COVID-19 preventive measures slowed economic activity. Consumer demand showed moderate growth at at 1.2 percent, reflecting growing concerns over COVID-19 and the restriction measures. Investment is expected to ease to 1.0 percent annually, supported mostly by the on-going foreign direct investments into the oil and gas industry and residential construction. Supply disruptions and currency depreciation pushed up inflation to above the upper bound of the National Bank target range.
“The authorities acted early to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, and the accumulated fiscal buffers allow the government to introduce a relief package to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 on the economy,” said Sjamsu Rahardja, Senior Country Economist, World Bank in Kazakhstan. “Weak demand and oil prices, as well as the protacted pandemic expose significant risks to the economic outlook. Authorities may want to consider using the available resources to provide relief to the poor and vulnerable, protect productive assets, and introduce reforms to sustain economic recovery.”
A prolonged crisis is likely to increase poverty and can increase inequality in Kazakhstan. Preliminary estimates suggest that poverty rate may rise in 2020 from a projected 8.3 to 12.7 percent – equating to more than 800 thousand additional people living in poverty. The shock to the labor market in Kazakhstan due to both the pandemic and the mitigation measures, is expected to have severe implications for jobs, particularly in sectors that employ low-skilled workers.
The report also argues that COVID-19 has a negative impact on human capital development in Kazakhstan. Unequal access to quality education, especially during lockdown, can negatively impact human capital development for the poor. School closures could result in learning loss of more than one-third of a school year and the impact could mean a decline in the Program for International Student Assessement (PISA) points. As most students in the country currently perform around the threshold for functional literacy and assuming some will lose more than others, the estimates suggest that the percentage of students performing below functional literacy will increase by 3 percentage points (from 64 to 67 percent).
“The impact of COVID-19 on education and learning losses will have a decades-long impact on the economy by an estimated 2.9 percent, amounting to an overall economic loss of up to $1.9 billion every year”, says Jean-Francois Marteau, World Bank Country Manager for Kazakhstan. “A focus on improving access to quality education, including distance learning, would be important to prevent a decline in the quality of human capital, especially among Kazakhstan’s low-income population.”
The report concludes that under the risk of a prolonged slump in the global oil market, Kazakhstan’s pathway for a resilient recovery may focus on strengthening the effectiveness of public administration and services, including the use of e-platforms to deliver key public services, better tax administration, and a mechanism to review and redeploy fiscal resources toward better state programs. A renewed emphasis on reforms in the logistics, digital telecommunications, and financial sectors could help the overall private sector explore new opportunities.
China-Eurasia Council condemns aggression of Azerbaijan
China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research strongly condemns Azerbaijani aggression which Baku started on July 12, 2020. Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense is a threat for the entire World as it is speaking about its aims to strike Metsamor Nuclear Plant, which is located in Armenia. Baku must understand that this is a crime against humanity, and it is equal to nuclear strike.The destruction of Metsamor Nuclear plant will be a disaster not only for Armenia, but also for Iran, Georgia and Azerbaijan, it will harm World’s environment and stand a real problem for several generations of the World. It is worth mentioning, that this time Baku attacked the Northern borders of Armenia, which are sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia according to International law. Azerbaijan violated the principle of territorial integrity of a sovereign state, which is one of the important pillars of International law.
China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research condemns Azerbaijan for using force against civilian population of Armenia and calls for peaceful negotiations. Baku must show solidarity and join global ceasefire initiated by the UN secretary general Antonio Guterres and must not try to escalate the situation on the border to deflect public attention from the situation concerning the outbreak of Covid-19 in Azerbaijan. We call official Baku to take care of Azerbaijani people in the hard times of Coronavirus and not send its soldiers to real death. Being multinational Council, for us It’s terrible to hear about lossfrom both sides and we express our sincere condolences. Hopefully peace will come to South Caucasus, which is an important crossroad in Eurasian mainland and it can stand a very important link for Belt and Road Initiative, if all problems solved in a peaceful way.
Condemnation Of Armenian Aggression By Friends Of Azerbaijan (FoA)
Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) strongly condemns the coward act of Armenians aggression in the Tovuz district of Azerbaijan that is a sheer violation of international borders and law. The act is an attempt of Armenia to drive global attention from the peaceful dialogue and negotiation process on Nagorno Karabakh.
In an online meeting of the delegates of the Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA), a joint declaration of condemnation has been issued by the honorable members of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA).
According to this declaration, Armenian aggression can jeopardize the whole South Caucasus region. The incident on July 12, 2020, is being considered as a direct attack on Azerbaijan and the repercussions of this incident can result in massive catastrophe in the entire region.
The delegates of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) stressed the global powers to come forward and take serious action on Armenian intervention by violating the international border of Azerbaijan. The act of Armenia is an open challenge to the sovereignty of Azerbaijan.
Malik Ayub Sumbal founder of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) termed that Armenia is losing its legal and moral position on Nagorno Karabakh and there is mounting pressure on Armenia by the international community for the peaceful solution of Nagorno Karabakh according to the UN Resolutions. At this time to get rid of such kind of diplomatic moves, Armenia has launched another major front in Tovuz.
When the whole world is busy against the Covid19 Armenian Prime Minister has chosen a very dangerous path that can take the whole region into war and bloodshed.
Friends of Azerbijan (FoA) is firmly standing with shoulder by shoulder to the people of Azerbaijan and martyr’s families at this hour.
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