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How to Reduce the Risk of a Military Encounter Between Russia and NATO

Dimitris Giannakopoulos

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Welcome to the Caspian Daily, where you will find the 10 most important things you need to know on Caspian Sea Region. We appreciate ideas, reports, news and interesting articles. Send along to Caspian[at]moderndiplomacy.eu or on Twitter: @DGiannakopoulos

1A Pan-European Task Force on Cooperation in Greater Europe, including former foreign and defence ministers from the U.K., Poland, Russia, Germany, Turkey and France has expressed its concern over a possible military escalation in the crisis between Russia and the West and has called for a new agreement between NATO and Russia to prevent accidental incidents or miscalculations leading to an escalation of tension and even confrontation. In its paper on Avoiding War in Europe: How to Reduce the Risk of a Military Encounter between Russia and NATO the Task Force describes some of the increased military activity in Europe in recent months and outlines a required new military agreement modelled on a recent US-China deal to avoid dangerous incidents in the East China Sea and elsewhere. [European Leadership Network]

2Kazakhstan, EU to sign new deal. The new EU-Kazakhstan Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement will help Kazakhstan to implement the government programs aimed at strengthening the national economy. The implementation of the new Agreement has significant importance for the country, particularly in the current context of regional tension and global economic crisis.The new Agreement will replace the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement in force since 1999, and will give EU-Kazakhstan relations a new up-to-date and stronger foundation.Over the past decades, the EU has become Kazakhstan’s first trading partner and first foreign investor, representing over half of total Foreign Direct Investments(FDI) in Kazakhstan.

3Secretary General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation Iyad bin Ameen Madani has applauded Azerbaijan`s role as an active member of the organization, AzerTag reports.“Azerbaijan is making a considerable contribution to the efforts to address economic, humanitarian and political challenges faced by the OIC,” Mr Ameen Madani told Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov as they met in Baku. The OIC Secretary General also congratulated Azerbaijan on “excellent” organization of the first European Games. He expressed confidence that the country will successfully host the Islamic Solidarity Games in 2017.

4Turkmenistan will propose to consider the issue of holding the ‘International Forum on Security and Cooperation in Central Asia’ in Ashgabat in 2016 during the forthcoming 70th session of the UN General Assembly. The forum aims at establishing a regular multilateral dialogue on the problems of the region, working out the common approaches to the creation of a permanent mechanism of political consultations in Central Asia in the future.The international non-military, non-block organizations, primarily, the UN and OSCE, could also take part in the forum.

5Tehran and Moscow started talks on the supply of the Russian-made Sukhoi 30 fighter jets to Iran. The talks were held on Tuesday on the sidelines of the MAKS 2015 air show in the town of Zhukovsky near Moscow during which Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian Vice-President for Science and Technology Sorena Sattari were present. The Sukhoi Su-30 is a twin-engine, two-seat supermaneuverable fighter aircraft developed by Russia’s Sukhoi Aviation Corporation. It is a multirole fighter for all-weather, air-to-air and air-to-surface deep interdiction missions.

6Why the JCPOA Won’t Turn Iran Into the Next Saudi Arabia. “Yet it is far from certain that the JCPOA will have anything like the cataclysmic effect some have predicted. Moreover, it is questionable how far Iran will push its newly-freed oil economy once sanctions are lifted, with a host of infrastructural challenges, as well as some compelling historical experience, potentially foiling the country’s rise into major petro-state status” Gregory Brew for Modern Diplomacy

7Former Executive Director of the International Energy Agency has predicted Iran will become one of the leading powers in the world oil and gas market by 2040. During a visit from Iranian petroleum ministry’s Institute of International Energy Studies (IIES) in Tehran, Nobuo Tanaka said, “We believe that Iran is the most important player in the world oil and gas market because of its exemplary geopolitical situation which is worth any kind of energy investments. I hope the Strait of Hormuz is never blocked and the world is never deprived of Iran’s energy resources,” said Tanaka, who currently serves as executive director at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation., Iran’s SHANA news agency reported.

8The United States-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce and the U.S. Commercial Service has started the formation of the American trade mission to Azerbaijan. The mission, that will take place on November 18-20, is a response to the rapid growth and potential of Azerbaijan.The mission is open to U.S. companies, investors, consultants specializing in the field of agriculture, banking and financial services, chemicals and petrochemicals, education, energy, food processing, healthcare, telecommunications and IT, infrastructure and construction, light industry, machinery, pharmaceuticals, transport and logistics, and tourism. The trade turnover between Azerbaijan and the U.S. increased by 7.7 percent in the annual quantities – up to $877.07 million – in January-July, according to the Azerbaijan State Customs Committee.

9Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli and First Deputy Prime Minister Bakytzhan Sagintayev of Kazakhstan reached a six-point consensus to advance bilateral cooperation on Tuesday. Zhang and Sagintayev co-chaired the seventh session of the China-Kazakhstan Cooperation Commission in Beijing, at which they summarized the results and planned future cooperation in the areas of manufacturing capacity, energy and resources, trade and investment, inter-connectivity, technology and people-to-people contact. The two sides agreed to step up integration of the China-proposed Silk Road Economic Belt with Kazakhstan’s new economic policy of the Bright Road. They will establish a joint work group on building the Silk Road Economic Belt as soon as possible and start drafting a guideline on bilateral cooperation at the earliest possible date.

10International Conference InvestPro Azerbaijan 2015. This autumn the Bosco Conference Company for the third time holds an international b2b conference and exhibition devoted to international investments, finance, corporate solutions, wealth management and asset protection: 26th of October 2015 – InvestPro Azerbaijan Baku 2015 (JW Marriott Hotel Absheron Baku)

Journalist, specialized in Middle East, Russia & FSU, Terrorism and Security issues. Founder and Editor-in-chief of the Modern Diplomacy magazine. follow @DGiannakopoulos

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The COVID-19 Shock to Kazakhstan’s Economy Largest in Two Decades

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For the first time since the late 1990s Kazakhstan’s economy is expected to contract by projected 3 percent in 2020 with a moderate recovery by 2.5 percent in 2021, according to the World Bank’s latest Kazakhstan Economic Update (Summer 2020) – Navigating the Crisis report.

Although Kazakhstan’s GDP showed mild growth at 2.3 percent in the first quarter, economic activities weakened in the following months as commodity prices dropped, trade declined, and COVID-19 preventive measures slowed economic activity. Consumer demand showed moderate growth at  at 1.2 percent,  reflecting growing concerns over COVID-19 and the restriction measures. Investment is expected to ease to 1.0 percent annually, supported mostly by the on-going foreign direct investments into the oil and gas industry and residential construction. Supply disruptions and currency depreciation pushed up inflation to above the upper bound of the National Bank target range.

“The authorities acted early to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, and the accumulated fiscal buffers allow the government to introduce a relief package to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 on the economy,” said Sjamsu Rahardja, Senior Country Economist, World Bank in Kazakhstan. “Weak demand and oil prices, as well as the protacted pandemic expose significant risks to the economic outlook. Authorities may want to consider using the available resources to provide relief to the poor and vulnerable, protect productive assets, and introduce reforms to sustain economic recovery.”

A prolonged crisis is likely to increase poverty and can increase inequality in Kazakhstan. Preliminary estimates suggest that poverty rate may rise in 2020 from a projected 8.3 to 12.7 percent – equating to more than 800 thousand additional people living in poverty. The shock to the labor market in Kazakhstan due to both the pandemic and the mitigation measures, is expected to have severe implications for jobs, particularly in sectors that employ low-skilled workers.

The report also argues that COVID-19 has a negative impact on human capital development in Kazakhstan. Unequal access to quality education, especially during lockdown, can negatively impact human capital development for the poor. School closures could result in learning loss of more than one-third of a school year and the impact could mean a decline in the Program for International Student Assessement (PISA) points. As most students in the country currently perform around the threshold for functional literacy and assuming some will lose more than others, the estimates suggest that the percentage of students performing below functional literacy will increase by 3 percentage points (from 64 to 67 percent).

“The impact of COVID-19 on education and learning losses will have a decades-long impact on the economy by an estimated 2.9 percent, amounting to an overall economic loss of up to $1.9 billion every year”, says Jean-Francois Marteau, World Bank Country Manager for Kazakhstan.  “A focus on improving access to quality education, including distance learning, would be important to prevent a decline in the quality of human capital, especially among Kazakhstan’s low-income population.”

The report concludes that under the risk of a prolonged slump in the global oil market, Kazakhstan’s pathway for a resilient recovery may focus on strengthening the effectiveness of public administration and services, including the use of e-platforms to deliver key public services, better tax administration, and a mechanism to review and redeploy fiscal resources toward better state programs. A renewed emphasis on reforms in the logistics, digital telecommunications, and financial sectors could help the overall private sector explore new opportunities.

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China-Eurasia Council condemns aggression of Azerbaijan

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China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research strongly condemns Azerbaijani aggression which Baku started on July 12, 2020.  Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense is a threat for the entire World as it is speaking about its aims to strike Metsamor Nuclear Plant, which is located in Armenia. Baku must understand that this is a crime against humanity, and it is equal to nuclear strike.The destruction of Metsamor Nuclear plant will be a disaster not only for Armenia, but also for Iran, Georgia and Azerbaijan, it will harm World’s environment and stand a real problem for several generations of the World. It is worth mentioning, that this time Baku attacked the Northern borders of Armenia, which are sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia according to International law. Azerbaijan violated the principle of territorial integrity of a sovereign state, which is one of the important pillars of International law.

China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research condemns Azerbaijan for using force against civilian population of Armenia and calls for peaceful negotiations. Baku must show solidarity and join global ceasefire initiated by the UN secretary general Antonio Guterres and must not try to escalate the situation on the border to deflect public attention from the situation concerning the outbreak of Covid-19 in Azerbaijan. We call official Baku to take care of Azerbaijani people in the hard times of Coronavirus and not send its soldiers to real death.  Being multinational Council, for us It’s terrible to hear about lossfrom both sides and we express our sincere condolences. Hopefully peace will come to South Caucasus, which is an important crossroad in Eurasian mainland and it can stand a very important link for Belt and Road Initiative, if all problems solved in a peaceful way.

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Condemnation Of Armenian Aggression By Friends Of Azerbaijan (FoA)

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Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) strongly condemns the coward act of Armenians aggression in the Tovuz district of Azerbaijan that is a sheer violation of international borders and law. The act is an attempt of Armenia to drive global attention from the peaceful dialogue and negotiation process on Nagorno Karabakh.

In an online meeting of the delegates of the Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA), a joint declaration of condemnation has been issued by the honorable members of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA). 

According to this declaration, Armenian aggression can jeopardize the whole South Caucasus region. The incident on July 12, 2020, is being considered as a direct attack on Azerbaijan and the repercussions of this incident can result in massive catastrophe in the entire region.


The delegates of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) stressed the global powers to come forward and take serious action on Armenian intervention by violating the international border of Azerbaijan. The act of Armenia is an open challenge to the sovereignty of Azerbaijan.

Malik Ayub Sumbal founder of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) termed that Armenia is losing its legal and moral position on Nagorno Karabakh and there is mounting pressure on Armenia by the international community for the peaceful solution of Nagorno Karabakh according to the UN Resolutions. At this time to get rid of such kind of diplomatic moves, Armenia has launched another major front in Tovuz. 

When the whole world is busy against the Covid19 Armenian Prime Minister has chosen a very dangerous path that can take the whole region into war and bloodshed. 

Friends of Azerbijan (FoA) is firmly standing with shoulder by shoulder to the people of Azerbaijan and martyr’s families at this hour.

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