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Oil Price Drops Raise Fears of Unrest

Dimitris Giannakopoulos

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Welcome to the Caspian Daily, where you will find the 10 most important things you need to know on Caspian Sea Region. We appreciate ideas, reports, news and interesting articles. Send along to Caspian[at]moderndiplomacy.eu or on Twitter: @DGiannakopoulos

1Oil, the lifeblood of many countries that produce and sell it, appears to be rapidly turning into an ever-cheaper economic curse.While the price has been declining for months, forecasts have always been hedged with the assumption that oil would eventually stabilize or at least not stay low for long. But new anxieties about frailties in China, the world’s most voracious consumer of energy, have raised fears that the price of oil, now 30 percent lower than it was just a few months ago, could remain depressed far longer than even the most pessimistic projections, and do even deeper damage to oil exporters. [New York Times]

2Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi along with King Abdullah II of Jordan and the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Mohammed Al-Nahyan, in a series of talks starting on Tuesday in Moscow. Putin’s meeting with King Abdullah will pay special attention to the implementation of joint projects, including the construction of the first Jordanian nuclear power plant, according to a statement released by the Kremlin on Monday. Talks with Crown Prince Al-Nahyan, also the deputy supreme commander of the armed forces of the United Arab Emirates, will focus on enhancing security and stability in the Middle East and North Africa, in addition to bilateral cooperation in energy and investment.

3New gas field discovered in Turkmenistan. A powerful commercial natural gas inflow was obtained at the ‘Bagly-1’ area in the Karakum Desert in Turkmenistan’s Mary Province, the Turkmen newspaper ‘Neutral Turkmenistan’ said. According to the newspaper this happened after the first exploration well at the area reached a depth of 4,690 meters. The daily hydrocarbon output at the new field exceeds one and a half million cubic meters. The newspaper said the new field’s prospect can also be judged from its being located a few dozen kilometers away from the gigantic Galkynysh field, which is famous worldwide for its explored and proven natural gas reserves.

4Azerbaijan`s investment potential will be discussed as part of “Milan Expo-2015″ international exhibition on Tuesday.”Invest in Azerbaijan: Business environment and opportunities” event will be co-organized by the Azerbaijan Export and Investment Promotion Foundation (AZPROMO) and Azerbaijan-Italy Trade Institute (ITAZERCOM).The agenda includes discussions on prospects for cooperation between the two countries in the fields of information and communication technologies, agriculture, chemistry, mechanics, environment, industry and construction.The event will bring together representatives of AZPROMO, Azerbaijan Investment Company, Sumgait Chemical Industrial Park, and Clean City company.

5Kazakhstan’s Air Defence Forces have received five air defence missile systems from Russia according to the press-office of Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Defense.“These S300PS air defence missile systems will be tested during live fire exercise and transferred to military bases of Kazakhstan’s Air Defence Forces to be in operation readiness covering the airspace of the Republic of Kazakhstan,” the Commander of Kazakhstan’s AA Troops Nurzhan Mukanov said. The S300PS AA missile systems were given to Kazakhstan free of charge.

6Preparation for the official visit of Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammadov to Afghanistan, scheduled for August 27 was discussed at the last meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers in Ashgabat, the Turkmen government reported. The president of Turkmenistan said that the country’s stance is exclusively peaceful settlement of the situation in Afghanistan by taking concrete steps to restore the Afghan economy and social infrastructure, according to the message.All this is proved by large-scale projects initiated by the Turkmen side, such as the construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline and the construction of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan railway, which started in 2013.

7Azerbaijan has expanded the investment in the social and economic spheres of the country in January to July, 2015.The investments in the mentioned spheres increased by 3.5 percent as compared with the same period of the past year, according to the report of the Azerbaijan State Statistical Committee.The total amount of investments amounted to 9.37 billion manats (over $8.94 billion), including 58.6 percent of internal investments.The government allocated the largest investments in the field of the construction and installation works for this period, amounting to 74.7 percent of the total volume of investments.

8Ahead of a high-level technical delegation from Iran, the Ministry of Commerce on Monday explored various avenues to enhance bilateral trade to $5 billion in the next five years after lifting of international sanctions against Iran. A delegation from Iran will visit Islamabad on August 25-26 to revive the trade links. Pakistan has a narrow export basket to Iran because 63 per cent of exports comprised of rice alone. Pakistan’s exports to Iran fell to a low level of $43 million in 2014 from $182m in 2010. While Iranian imports fell to $186m in 2014 from $884m in 2010.

9Duda on Top of Russian Threat. Poland sees Russia as a pre-eminent threat. This has been the essence of speeches made by Andrzej Duda, the newly appointed President who has called for additional security guarantees from NATO and has plans to create an anti-Russian bloc within the organization alongside other Eastern European countries. Given Duda’s attitude, it would seem that Russian–Polish relations could deteriorate even further, while tensions in the Baltic–Black Sea Region as a whole will increase sharply. Vadim Trukhachev for RIAC.

10The first lady of Azerbaijan, ISESCO Goodwill Ambassador Mehriban Aliyeva is a very dynamic person with great talents and open-mindedness, Director General of the Islamic Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (ISESCO) Dr. Abdulaziz Othman Altwaijri said in an interview with Trend news agency.“She has always been an advocate of dialogue and positive interaction between cultures,” he said.The ISESCO director general went on to add that Mehriban Aliyeva’s support to the World Forum on Intercultural Dialogue is a strong factor of its success in achieving its noble objectives.

Journalist, specialized in Middle East, Russia & FSU, Terrorism and Security issues. Founder and Editor-in-chief of the Modern Diplomacy magazine. follow @DGiannakopoulos

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The COVID-19 Shock to Kazakhstan’s Economy Largest in Two Decades

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For the first time since the late 1990s Kazakhstan’s economy is expected to contract by projected 3 percent in 2020 with a moderate recovery by 2.5 percent in 2021, according to the World Bank’s latest Kazakhstan Economic Update (Summer 2020) – Navigating the Crisis report.

Although Kazakhstan’s GDP showed mild growth at 2.3 percent in the first quarter, economic activities weakened in the following months as commodity prices dropped, trade declined, and COVID-19 preventive measures slowed economic activity. Consumer demand showed moderate growth at  at 1.2 percent,  reflecting growing concerns over COVID-19 and the restriction measures. Investment is expected to ease to 1.0 percent annually, supported mostly by the on-going foreign direct investments into the oil and gas industry and residential construction. Supply disruptions and currency depreciation pushed up inflation to above the upper bound of the National Bank target range.

“The authorities acted early to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, and the accumulated fiscal buffers allow the government to introduce a relief package to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 on the economy,” said Sjamsu Rahardja, Senior Country Economist, World Bank in Kazakhstan. “Weak demand and oil prices, as well as the protacted pandemic expose significant risks to the economic outlook. Authorities may want to consider using the available resources to provide relief to the poor and vulnerable, protect productive assets, and introduce reforms to sustain economic recovery.”

A prolonged crisis is likely to increase poverty and can increase inequality in Kazakhstan. Preliminary estimates suggest that poverty rate may rise in 2020 from a projected 8.3 to 12.7 percent – equating to more than 800 thousand additional people living in poverty. The shock to the labor market in Kazakhstan due to both the pandemic and the mitigation measures, is expected to have severe implications for jobs, particularly in sectors that employ low-skilled workers.

The report also argues that COVID-19 has a negative impact on human capital development in Kazakhstan. Unequal access to quality education, especially during lockdown, can negatively impact human capital development for the poor. School closures could result in learning loss of more than one-third of a school year and the impact could mean a decline in the Program for International Student Assessement (PISA) points. As most students in the country currently perform around the threshold for functional literacy and assuming some will lose more than others, the estimates suggest that the percentage of students performing below functional literacy will increase by 3 percentage points (from 64 to 67 percent).

“The impact of COVID-19 on education and learning losses will have a decades-long impact on the economy by an estimated 2.9 percent, amounting to an overall economic loss of up to $1.9 billion every year”, says Jean-Francois Marteau, World Bank Country Manager for Kazakhstan.  “A focus on improving access to quality education, including distance learning, would be important to prevent a decline in the quality of human capital, especially among Kazakhstan’s low-income population.”

The report concludes that under the risk of a prolonged slump in the global oil market, Kazakhstan’s pathway for a resilient recovery may focus on strengthening the effectiveness of public administration and services, including the use of e-platforms to deliver key public services, better tax administration, and a mechanism to review and redeploy fiscal resources toward better state programs. A renewed emphasis on reforms in the logistics, digital telecommunications, and financial sectors could help the overall private sector explore new opportunities.

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China-Eurasia Council condemns aggression of Azerbaijan

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China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research strongly condemns Azerbaijani aggression which Baku started on July 12, 2020.  Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense is a threat for the entire World as it is speaking about its aims to strike Metsamor Nuclear Plant, which is located in Armenia. Baku must understand that this is a crime against humanity, and it is equal to nuclear strike.The destruction of Metsamor Nuclear plant will be a disaster not only for Armenia, but also for Iran, Georgia and Azerbaijan, it will harm World’s environment and stand a real problem for several generations of the World. It is worth mentioning, that this time Baku attacked the Northern borders of Armenia, which are sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia according to International law. Azerbaijan violated the principle of territorial integrity of a sovereign state, which is one of the important pillars of International law.

China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research condemns Azerbaijan for using force against civilian population of Armenia and calls for peaceful negotiations. Baku must show solidarity and join global ceasefire initiated by the UN secretary general Antonio Guterres and must not try to escalate the situation on the border to deflect public attention from the situation concerning the outbreak of Covid-19 in Azerbaijan. We call official Baku to take care of Azerbaijani people in the hard times of Coronavirus and not send its soldiers to real death.  Being multinational Council, for us It’s terrible to hear about lossfrom both sides and we express our sincere condolences. Hopefully peace will come to South Caucasus, which is an important crossroad in Eurasian mainland and it can stand a very important link for Belt and Road Initiative, if all problems solved in a peaceful way.

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Condemnation Of Armenian Aggression By Friends Of Azerbaijan (FoA)

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Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) strongly condemns the coward act of Armenians aggression in the Tovuz district of Azerbaijan that is a sheer violation of international borders and law. The act is an attempt of Armenia to drive global attention from the peaceful dialogue and negotiation process on Nagorno Karabakh.

In an online meeting of the delegates of the Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA), a joint declaration of condemnation has been issued by the honorable members of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA). 

According to this declaration, Armenian aggression can jeopardize the whole South Caucasus region. The incident on July 12, 2020, is being considered as a direct attack on Azerbaijan and the repercussions of this incident can result in massive catastrophe in the entire region.


The delegates of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) stressed the global powers to come forward and take serious action on Armenian intervention by violating the international border of Azerbaijan. The act of Armenia is an open challenge to the sovereignty of Azerbaijan.

Malik Ayub Sumbal founder of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) termed that Armenia is losing its legal and moral position on Nagorno Karabakh and there is mounting pressure on Armenia by the international community for the peaceful solution of Nagorno Karabakh according to the UN Resolutions. At this time to get rid of such kind of diplomatic moves, Armenia has launched another major front in Tovuz. 

When the whole world is busy against the Covid19 Armenian Prime Minister has chosen a very dangerous path that can take the whole region into war and bloodshed. 

Friends of Azerbijan (FoA) is firmly standing with shoulder by shoulder to the people of Azerbaijan and martyr’s families at this hour.

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