Welcome to the Caspian Daily, where you will find the 10 most important things you need to know on Caspian Sea Region. We appreciate ideas, reports, news and interesting articles. Send along to Caspian[at]moderndiplomacy.eu or on Twitter: @DGiannakopoulos
1Azerbaijan is the most stable country in the South Caucasus in terms of stability in domestic and foreign policy, economic power and the ability to resist extremism, says a report published by Minchenko Consulting. The report mentions that the collapse of the USSR gave birth to six armed conflicts, the majority of which still remain unsettled. “The South Caucasus is the only region in the post-Soviet area where some of the states do not have diplomatic relations. There are no diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Georgia and Russia, Armenia and Turkey,” says the report.Azerbaijan is mentioned as the most stable country among the three South Caucasian countries in terms of stability in domestic and foreign policy, economic power and the ability to resist extremism. Azerbaijan comes first thanks to its monolithic political system and strong economy.
2Russia’s Defense Ministry broadcasting channel, Zvezda-TV, reports that Moscow has plans to start building new early warning radar stations in Azerbijan and near the Arctic Circle. The radar stations are meant to provide long-distance monitoring of airspace. Construction of the Voronezh-DM radar will start at Azerbaijan’s Soviet-era Qabala military complex in 2017 and is scheduled to be completed during 2019. The new radar will replace old Soviet radar system Daryal, which Russia stopped using in December 2012 due to differences with Baku over the Qabala lease fee.
3Some 234 trains have been launched via the China-Europe-China railway route through Kazakhstan for the first seven months of 2015, which is almost three times more than in the same period of last year, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (Railway of Kazakhstan) said.”As of 2015, the number of organized container trains is expected to increase up to 510 or more than 40,000 containers, which is almost 40 times more than in 2011,” a statement said.”Kazakhstan Temir Zholy is actively working to implement the transit-transport potential of the country in three main vectors: East-West (China-Europe-China), TRACECA (China, Turkey, the Caucasus); North-South (China, Russia, India, Gulf countries),” a statement said. “Great success in this area was observed in transcontinental transportation via the China-Europe-China route.” The container transportation via this route increased, mainly due to redirecting the cargo flow from marine transport to railway transport.
4Kazakhstan Power Market Outlook To 2025. This report elaborates Kazakhstans power market structure and provides historical and forecast numbers for generation, capacity and consumption up to 2025. Detailed analysis of the Kazakhstan power markets regulatory structure, import and export trends, competitive landscape and power projects at various stages of the supply chain is provided. The report also gives a snapshot of the power sector in Kazakhstan on broad parameters of macroeconomics, supply security, generation infrastructure, transmission infrastructure, degree of competition, regulatory scenario and future potential. Financial performance of the leading power companies is also analyzed in the report. [Market Research Reports]
5Turkmenistan has seen a 7.8-percent GDP growth in oil and gas condensate production in the January-July 2015 period. This data was announced at a meeting of the Turkmen Cabinet of Ministers, which summarized the results from various sectors of the national economy for the first seven months of the current year. It was also noted that the country’s GDP growth was at the level of 8.7 percent, including an industrial sector growth rate of about 4.4 percent, 12.6 percent in the construction sector, 13 percent in trade, and 12.2 percent in agricultural production. The volume of investments from all financing resources amounted to 27.7 billion manat, representing a 7.9 percent growth from that of the same period in 2014.
6How Much Pressure Will Iran Put On Oil Prices? “According to Robin Mills, Head of Consulting at Manaar Energy, the anticipation of the Iranian deal has already caused prices to fall and further falls will depend on the pace of the increase in Iranian exports.“Iranian exports will increase somewhat ahead of the formal confirmation of lifting sanctions, about 6 months after the approval of the deal by the U.S. and Iran (which itself takes 3 months from signing), but the return of ~1 million bpd of Iranian exports will depress prices by $5-10 per barrel. In the long term, growing production from Iran will help keep prices moderate,” stated Mills to Oilprice” source: investing.com
7Central Asian Cities: Between Demography and Politics. “We live in a rapidly urbanizing world, where city populations are growing in across the globe at an impressive rate. In 1950, 28.8 percent of the world’s population lived in cities, in 1975 – this figure was 37.2 percent and in 2000 – 45.0 percent, while more recently, in 2009, it exceeded 50 percent. This trend is also apparent in the post-Soviet space, chiefly in Central Asia. In 1959, city-dwellers accounted for 38.5 percent of the population, whereas in 2014 this figure had risen to 47.6 percent, with the population increasing from 8.9 to 32.1 million. According to UN forecasts, by 2050 the region is to become home to 82 million people, with 45 million or 55 percent residing in cities. The fastest increase takes place in major cities, which are gradually becoming into megalopolises, and this gives rise to a range of political challenges for Central Asian states” Artem Dankov for RIAC.
8Kazakhstan’s Mining Fiscal Regime. Kazakhstan has significant fossil fuel reserves, and mineral and metal deposits. It produces a variety of mineral resources such as coal, uranium, lead, zinc, tungsten, molybdenum, borates, phosphorite, copper, potassium and cadmium. The fiscal regime report covers mining industry of Kazakhstan which is governed by the Ministry of Industry and New Technology and Ministry of Environmental Protection. The Law of Subsoil and Subsoil Use is the main regulating law for mining activities in the country. The report outlines governing bodies, governing laws, licenses, rights, obligations and key fiscal terms which includes upfront payments and taxes on subsurface usage, land tax, vehicle tax, deductions, depreciation, loss carry forward, withholding taxes and value added tax (VAT) [Research and Markets]
9Three-day consultations of heads of customs services of the participating countries of international transport project North-South, including Azerbaijan, will start in Delhi tomorrow. Indian ambassador to Russia Pundi Srinivasan Raghavan has informed today that the parties are actively working on launching this project as it will halve the costs on the delivery of goods. Transport corridor from Nava Sheva (Mumbai, India) through Bandar Abbas (Iran) to Astrakhan (Russia) and Baku (Azerbaijan) is expected to reduce much the time of transporting cargo from India to the regions of Central Asia and Russia. Currently, an important issue in the running of transport corridor North-South is the completion of railway line Qazvin-Rasht-Astara with length of 375 km.
10Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkey agreed to create a common Turkic-speaking channel.Memo was signed during the first meeting of the ministers in the sphere of information and media council of cooperation in Astana. The channel will broadcast in the language of the member-states which signed a memo on its creation.
The COVID-19 Shock to Kazakhstan’s Economy Largest in Two Decades
For the first time since the late 1990s Kazakhstan’s economy is expected to contract by projected 3 percent in 2020 with a moderate recovery by 2.5 percent in 2021, according to the World Bank’s latest Kazakhstan Economic Update (Summer 2020) – Navigating the Crisis report.
Although Kazakhstan’s GDP showed mild growth at 2.3 percent in the first quarter, economic activities weakened in the following months as commodity prices dropped, trade declined, and COVID-19 preventive measures slowed economic activity. Consumer demand showed moderate growth at at 1.2 percent, reflecting growing concerns over COVID-19 and the restriction measures. Investment is expected to ease to 1.0 percent annually, supported mostly by the on-going foreign direct investments into the oil and gas industry and residential construction. Supply disruptions and currency depreciation pushed up inflation to above the upper bound of the National Bank target range.
“The authorities acted early to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, and the accumulated fiscal buffers allow the government to introduce a relief package to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 on the economy,” said Sjamsu Rahardja, Senior Country Economist, World Bank in Kazakhstan. “Weak demand and oil prices, as well as the protacted pandemic expose significant risks to the economic outlook. Authorities may want to consider using the available resources to provide relief to the poor and vulnerable, protect productive assets, and introduce reforms to sustain economic recovery.”
A prolonged crisis is likely to increase poverty and can increase inequality in Kazakhstan. Preliminary estimates suggest that poverty rate may rise in 2020 from a projected 8.3 to 12.7 percent – equating to more than 800 thousand additional people living in poverty. The shock to the labor market in Kazakhstan due to both the pandemic and the mitigation measures, is expected to have severe implications for jobs, particularly in sectors that employ low-skilled workers.
The report also argues that COVID-19 has a negative impact on human capital development in Kazakhstan. Unequal access to quality education, especially during lockdown, can negatively impact human capital development for the poor. School closures could result in learning loss of more than one-third of a school year and the impact could mean a decline in the Program for International Student Assessement (PISA) points. As most students in the country currently perform around the threshold for functional literacy and assuming some will lose more than others, the estimates suggest that the percentage of students performing below functional literacy will increase by 3 percentage points (from 64 to 67 percent).
“The impact of COVID-19 on education and learning losses will have a decades-long impact on the economy by an estimated 2.9 percent, amounting to an overall economic loss of up to $1.9 billion every year”, says Jean-Francois Marteau, World Bank Country Manager for Kazakhstan. “A focus on improving access to quality education, including distance learning, would be important to prevent a decline in the quality of human capital, especially among Kazakhstan’s low-income population.”
The report concludes that under the risk of a prolonged slump in the global oil market, Kazakhstan’s pathway for a resilient recovery may focus on strengthening the effectiveness of public administration and services, including the use of e-platforms to deliver key public services, better tax administration, and a mechanism to review and redeploy fiscal resources toward better state programs. A renewed emphasis on reforms in the logistics, digital telecommunications, and financial sectors could help the overall private sector explore new opportunities.
China-Eurasia Council condemns aggression of Azerbaijan
China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research strongly condemns Azerbaijani aggression which Baku started on July 12, 2020. Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense is a threat for the entire World as it is speaking about its aims to strike Metsamor Nuclear Plant, which is located in Armenia. Baku must understand that this is a crime against humanity, and it is equal to nuclear strike.The destruction of Metsamor Nuclear plant will be a disaster not only for Armenia, but also for Iran, Georgia and Azerbaijan, it will harm World’s environment and stand a real problem for several generations of the World. It is worth mentioning, that this time Baku attacked the Northern borders of Armenia, which are sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia according to International law. Azerbaijan violated the principle of territorial integrity of a sovereign state, which is one of the important pillars of International law.
China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research condemns Azerbaijan for using force against civilian population of Armenia and calls for peaceful negotiations. Baku must show solidarity and join global ceasefire initiated by the UN secretary general Antonio Guterres and must not try to escalate the situation on the border to deflect public attention from the situation concerning the outbreak of Covid-19 in Azerbaijan. We call official Baku to take care of Azerbaijani people in the hard times of Coronavirus and not send its soldiers to real death. Being multinational Council, for us It’s terrible to hear about lossfrom both sides and we express our sincere condolences. Hopefully peace will come to South Caucasus, which is an important crossroad in Eurasian mainland and it can stand a very important link for Belt and Road Initiative, if all problems solved in a peaceful way.
Condemnation Of Armenian Aggression By Friends Of Azerbaijan (FoA)
Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) strongly condemns the coward act of Armenians aggression in the Tovuz district of Azerbaijan that is a sheer violation of international borders and law. The act is an attempt of Armenia to drive global attention from the peaceful dialogue and negotiation process on Nagorno Karabakh.
In an online meeting of the delegates of the Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA), a joint declaration of condemnation has been issued by the honorable members of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA).
According to this declaration, Armenian aggression can jeopardize the whole South Caucasus region. The incident on July 12, 2020, is being considered as a direct attack on Azerbaijan and the repercussions of this incident can result in massive catastrophe in the entire region.
The delegates of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) stressed the global powers to come forward and take serious action on Armenian intervention by violating the international border of Azerbaijan. The act of Armenia is an open challenge to the sovereignty of Azerbaijan.
Malik Ayub Sumbal founder of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) termed that Armenia is losing its legal and moral position on Nagorno Karabakh and there is mounting pressure on Armenia by the international community for the peaceful solution of Nagorno Karabakh according to the UN Resolutions. At this time to get rid of such kind of diplomatic moves, Armenia has launched another major front in Tovuz.
When the whole world is busy against the Covid19 Armenian Prime Minister has chosen a very dangerous path that can take the whole region into war and bloodshed.
Friends of Azerbijan (FoA) is firmly standing with shoulder by shoulder to the people of Azerbaijan and martyr’s families at this hour.
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