Welcome to the Caspian Daily, where you will find the 10 most important things you need to know on Caspian Sea Region. We appreciate ideas, reports, news and interesting articles. Send along to Caspian[at]moderndiplomacy.eu or on Twitter: @DGiannakopoulos
1One of the biggest mysteries in the oil market surrounds just how much oil Iran is hoarding at sea. That’s a key question because Iran’s nuclear deal with the West could lift crippling sanctions, and pave the way for tons of Iranian oil to hit the market. A surge in Iranian exports would only deepen the oil supply glut that has sent prices to fresh six-year lows this week to below $43. Maritime surveillance firm Windward has harnessed sophisticated technology to determine Iran is actually hoarding 50 million barrels of oil. That’s up nearly 150% from April 2014 when Windward started tracking this closely-watched metric. “That means when sanctions are lifted, there is going to be a flood of crude hitting the market because boy could they use the money,” said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service. It’s important to remember the oil hiding at sea is ready to be shipped to a buyer — likely in Asia — at a moment’s notice. It’s already been pumped out of the ground, cleaned up and processed. [CNN]
2Why we disagree with Chuck Schumer on the Iran deal. “Rejection of the agreement would severely undermine the U.S. role as a leader and reliable partner around the globe. If Washington walks away from this hard-fought multilateral agreement, its dependability would likely be doubted for decades.Rejection would also destroy the effective coalition that brought Iran to the negotiating table. China and Russia would likely resume trade with Iran. U.S. allies, unsettled by Washington’s behavior, would move their own separate ways.The other five negotiators would likely have little stomach for going back to Iran “for a better deal.” The ambassadors of the five countries recently assured members of Congress that their governments would not return to the negotiating table should Washington reject the agreement” Richard Lugar and J. Bennett Johnston for Reuters.
3Russia has extended its list of countries subject to a food import ban in retaliation for Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said the ban would now apply to Iceland, Liechtenstein, Albania and Montenegro. He said Ukraine would be added in 2016 if an economic agreement between Kiev and the European Union came into force. Speaking at a cabinet of ministers on Thursday, Aug 13, the PM said Iceland, Liechtenstein, Albania and Montenegro would also now be affected because they had joined EU sanctions against Russia.”Joining the sanctions is a conscious choice which means readiness for retaliatory measures from our part, which have been adopted,” Medvedev said in comments broadcast on state-owned channel Rossiya 24.
4Kazakhstan has seen an increase in oil and natural gas production in January-July 2015, the country’s Statistics Committee under the National Economy Ministry reported. The production of oil, including gas condensate, increased by 0.7 percent to reach 47 million tons in the reported period.The committee also said that the production of gasoline decreased by 2.8 percent to 1.6 million tons, and diesel fuel by 2.7 percent to 2.7 million tons in the first seven months of 2015. Energy-rich Kazakhstan produces oil mainly from its largest fields – Karachaganak and Tengiz.
5The new industrial zone in the Akhal province of Turkmenistan contains the production of materials and articles for construction industry, including glass, armature boards, paint and paint products, polyurethane products, hoisting slings, decorative stone, composite panels, hardware, electronic components, furniture, doors and windows, and packing containers.The implementation of the new industrial objects by the Turkmen Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs will create over 10,000 new jobs.
6The success in the negotiation process over the resolution of the nuclear dispute between the West and Iran and the positive developments following it, have lead to a boom in Iran’s tourism sector. Iranian officials have released recent figures showing an increase in a number of the people visiting the Islamic Republic, especially from Europe. Iran is seen as one of the world’s top potential tourist destinations, as it contains a countless number of ancient sites. The country ranks fourth in Asia and first in the Middle East in terms of the number of world heritage sites, with an impressive 17 historic sites that have been added to UNESCO’s World Heritage List.
7Azerbaijan’s next Parliamentary elections will be in the fall of 2015.Many political parties and groups have already expressed their wish to participate in the elections; however, not all have yet managed to hold meetings.Meanwhile, Representatives of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) met with the Chairman of the Central Election Commission Mazahir Panahov on August 12. During the meeting, it was noted that the Central Election Commission of Azerbaijan appreciates relations with international organizations and intends to continue working with them closely.
8This is Azerbaijan’s parliamentary elections and CEC is the key actor, so we are mainly fine to play our part of helping in the trainings which the European Union is doing in many countries in the world”, said Malena Mard, head of the EU Delegation to Azerbaijan. “We review key recommendations from the OSCE and the Council of Europe regarding the candidates’ registration. We hope to play our part in assisting the Central Election Commission for which we have had cooperation for a long time. We are happy to be a part of this project here in Azerbaijan and we are not only doing it in Baku, but we will several workshops and trainings all over the country, she said.
9The Altau district of China and East Kazakhstan region signed a framework agreement on cooperation in the tourism sector on August 13.This agreement was signed by travel agencies of respective countries at the third International Forum on economic cooperation held as part of the Economic Belt of Silk Road.The sides committed to support the cooperation in cross-border tourism and interaction between tour operators of the two countries.Kazakhstan plays significant strategic and diplomatic role for China as it is the first stop on China’s Silk Road Economic Belt.
10US has joined hands with China and Russia to oppose negotiations for reforming the UN body. India and some other developing nations have worked hard for long to prepare a framework on UNSC reform. They had suggested that the UNSC include more countries as its permanent members and work in a transparent manner. However, the US, Russia and China strongly opposed the proposal – which can be described as an outcome of inter-governmental negotiations
The COVID-19 Shock to Kazakhstan’s Economy Largest in Two Decades
For the first time since the late 1990s Kazakhstan’s economy is expected to contract by projected 3 percent in 2020 with a moderate recovery by 2.5 percent in 2021, according to the World Bank’s latest Kazakhstan Economic Update (Summer 2020) – Navigating the Crisis report.
Although Kazakhstan’s GDP showed mild growth at 2.3 percent in the first quarter, economic activities weakened in the following months as commodity prices dropped, trade declined, and COVID-19 preventive measures slowed economic activity. Consumer demand showed moderate growth at at 1.2 percent, reflecting growing concerns over COVID-19 and the restriction measures. Investment is expected to ease to 1.0 percent annually, supported mostly by the on-going foreign direct investments into the oil and gas industry and residential construction. Supply disruptions and currency depreciation pushed up inflation to above the upper bound of the National Bank target range.
“The authorities acted early to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, and the accumulated fiscal buffers allow the government to introduce a relief package to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 on the economy,” said Sjamsu Rahardja, Senior Country Economist, World Bank in Kazakhstan. “Weak demand and oil prices, as well as the protacted pandemic expose significant risks to the economic outlook. Authorities may want to consider using the available resources to provide relief to the poor and vulnerable, protect productive assets, and introduce reforms to sustain economic recovery.”
A prolonged crisis is likely to increase poverty and can increase inequality in Kazakhstan. Preliminary estimates suggest that poverty rate may rise in 2020 from a projected 8.3 to 12.7 percent – equating to more than 800 thousand additional people living in poverty. The shock to the labor market in Kazakhstan due to both the pandemic and the mitigation measures, is expected to have severe implications for jobs, particularly in sectors that employ low-skilled workers.
The report also argues that COVID-19 has a negative impact on human capital development in Kazakhstan. Unequal access to quality education, especially during lockdown, can negatively impact human capital development for the poor. School closures could result in learning loss of more than one-third of a school year and the impact could mean a decline in the Program for International Student Assessement (PISA) points. As most students in the country currently perform around the threshold for functional literacy and assuming some will lose more than others, the estimates suggest that the percentage of students performing below functional literacy will increase by 3 percentage points (from 64 to 67 percent).
“The impact of COVID-19 on education and learning losses will have a decades-long impact on the economy by an estimated 2.9 percent, amounting to an overall economic loss of up to $1.9 billion every year”, says Jean-Francois Marteau, World Bank Country Manager for Kazakhstan. “A focus on improving access to quality education, including distance learning, would be important to prevent a decline in the quality of human capital, especially among Kazakhstan’s low-income population.”
The report concludes that under the risk of a prolonged slump in the global oil market, Kazakhstan’s pathway for a resilient recovery may focus on strengthening the effectiveness of public administration and services, including the use of e-platforms to deliver key public services, better tax administration, and a mechanism to review and redeploy fiscal resources toward better state programs. A renewed emphasis on reforms in the logistics, digital telecommunications, and financial sectors could help the overall private sector explore new opportunities.
China-Eurasia Council condemns aggression of Azerbaijan
China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research strongly condemns Azerbaijani aggression which Baku started on July 12, 2020. Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense is a threat for the entire World as it is speaking about its aims to strike Metsamor Nuclear Plant, which is located in Armenia. Baku must understand that this is a crime against humanity, and it is equal to nuclear strike.The destruction of Metsamor Nuclear plant will be a disaster not only for Armenia, but also for Iran, Georgia and Azerbaijan, it will harm World’s environment and stand a real problem for several generations of the World. It is worth mentioning, that this time Baku attacked the Northern borders of Armenia, which are sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia according to International law. Azerbaijan violated the principle of territorial integrity of a sovereign state, which is one of the important pillars of International law.
China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research condemns Azerbaijan for using force against civilian population of Armenia and calls for peaceful negotiations. Baku must show solidarity and join global ceasefire initiated by the UN secretary general Antonio Guterres and must not try to escalate the situation on the border to deflect public attention from the situation concerning the outbreak of Covid-19 in Azerbaijan. We call official Baku to take care of Azerbaijani people in the hard times of Coronavirus and not send its soldiers to real death. Being multinational Council, for us It’s terrible to hear about lossfrom both sides and we express our sincere condolences. Hopefully peace will come to South Caucasus, which is an important crossroad in Eurasian mainland and it can stand a very important link for Belt and Road Initiative, if all problems solved in a peaceful way.
Condemnation Of Armenian Aggression By Friends Of Azerbaijan (FoA)
Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) strongly condemns the coward act of Armenians aggression in the Tovuz district of Azerbaijan that is a sheer violation of international borders and law. The act is an attempt of Armenia to drive global attention from the peaceful dialogue and negotiation process on Nagorno Karabakh.
In an online meeting of the delegates of the Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA), a joint declaration of condemnation has been issued by the honorable members of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA).
According to this declaration, Armenian aggression can jeopardize the whole South Caucasus region. The incident on July 12, 2020, is being considered as a direct attack on Azerbaijan and the repercussions of this incident can result in massive catastrophe in the entire region.
The delegates of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) stressed the global powers to come forward and take serious action on Armenian intervention by violating the international border of Azerbaijan. The act of Armenia is an open challenge to the sovereignty of Azerbaijan.
Malik Ayub Sumbal founder of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) termed that Armenia is losing its legal and moral position on Nagorno Karabakh and there is mounting pressure on Armenia by the international community for the peaceful solution of Nagorno Karabakh according to the UN Resolutions. At this time to get rid of such kind of diplomatic moves, Armenia has launched another major front in Tovuz.
When the whole world is busy against the Covid19 Armenian Prime Minister has chosen a very dangerous path that can take the whole region into war and bloodshed.
Friends of Azerbijan (FoA) is firmly standing with shoulder by shoulder to the people of Azerbaijan and martyr’s families at this hour.
More research needed into COVID-19 effects on children
More research is needed into factors that increase the risk of severe COVID-19 disease among children and adolescents, the head...
Justice for Justice!
A country where justice is served to affluent people only, however the poverty stricken suffer. Where justice and law are...
Israel and its Image After the 1967 War
The war of 1967, or the Six Day War as it has come to be known, was a war which...
Euthanasia, Living Will and The Analysis In India
Euthanasia, i.e. mercy killing, refers to the act of painlessly putting to death a person who is either very old...
Transition of Balance of Power from Unipolar to Multipolar World Order
The international system may be described as a complex system of social, scientific, political, military and technological systems. This dynamic...
COVID-19, major shifts and the relevance of Kondratief 6th Wave
Covid-19 has changed the global strategic equations, it has impacted each part of human life so has it let us...
Don’t Expect Sanctions to Stop Nord Stream II
Republican Senator Ted Cruz has become the principal Sisyphus-like character to take over the task of rolling the boulder of...
Eastern Europe3 days ago
Azerbaijan-Russia Ties Face Increasing Challenges
Environment3 days ago
Nature: Humanity at a crossroads
Middle East3 days ago
Will They or Won’t They? Saudi Recognition of Israel is the $64,000 Question
Energy News3 days ago
Reaching energy and climate goals demands a dramatic scaling up of clean energy technologies
New Social Compact2 days ago
Contextualizing the causes of rape: Battle of ‘wrong’ perceptions
Defense2 days ago
COVID-19 and Challenges to the Indian Defence Establishment
Human Rights3 days ago
Switzerland: Draft anti-terrorism law sets ‘dangerous precedent’
Reports2 days ago
Promoting Wellness Key to Developing Asia’s Post-COVID-19 Recovery