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One of the biggest mysteries in the oil market: Iran’s secret stash of oil

Dimitris Giannakopoulos

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Welcome to the Caspian Daily, where you will find the 10 most important things you need to know on Caspian Sea Region. We appreciate ideas, reports, news and interesting articles. Send along to Caspian[at]moderndiplomacy.eu or on Twitter: @DGiannakopoulos

1One of the biggest mysteries in the oil market surrounds just how much oil Iran is hoarding at sea. That’s a key question because Iran’s nuclear deal with the West could lift crippling sanctions, and pave the way for tons of Iranian oil to hit the market. A surge in Iranian exports would only deepen the oil supply glut that has sent prices to fresh six-year lows this week to below $43. Maritime surveillance firm Windward has harnessed sophisticated technology to determine Iran is actually hoarding 50 million barrels of oil. That’s up nearly 150% from April 2014 when Windward started tracking this closely-watched metric. “That means when sanctions are lifted, there is going to be a flood of crude hitting the market because boy could they use the money,” said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service. It’s important to remember the oil hiding at sea is ready to be shipped to a buyer — likely in Asia — at a moment’s notice. It’s already been pumped out of the ground, cleaned up and processed. [CNN]

2Why we disagree with Chuck Schumer on the Iran deal. “Rejection of the agreement would severely undermine the U.S. role as a leader and reliable partner around the globe. If Washington walks away from this hard-fought multilateral agreement, its dependability would likely be doubted for decades.Rejection would also destroy the effective coalition that brought Iran to the negotiating table. China and Russia would likely resume trade with Iran. U.S. allies, unsettled by Washington’s behavior, would move their own separate ways.The other five negotiators would likely have little stomach for going back to Iran “for a better deal.” The ambassadors of the five countries recently assured members of Congress that their governments would not return to the negotiating table should Washington reject the agreement” Richard Lugar and J. Bennett Johnston for Reuters.

3Russia has extended its list of countries subject to a food import ban in retaliation for Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said the ban would now apply to Iceland, Liechtenstein, Albania and Montenegro. He said Ukraine would be added in 2016 if an economic agreement between Kiev and the European Union came into force. Speaking at a cabinet of ministers on Thursday, Aug 13, the PM said Iceland, Liechtenstein, Albania and Montenegro would also now be affected because they had joined EU sanctions against Russia.”Joining the sanctions is a conscious choice which means readiness for retaliatory measures from our part, which have been adopted,” Medvedev said in comments broadcast on state-owned channel Rossiya 24.

4Kazakhstan has seen an increase in oil and natural gas production in January-July 2015, the country’s Statistics Committee under the National Economy Ministry reported. The production of oil, including gas condensate, increased by 0.7 percent to reach 47 million tons in the reported period.The committee also said that the production of gasoline decreased by 2.8 percent to 1.6 million tons, and diesel fuel by 2.7 percent to 2.7 million tons in the first seven months of 2015. Energy-rich Kazakhstan produces oil mainly from its largest fields – Karachaganak and Tengiz.

5The new industrial zone in the Akhal province of Turkmenistan contains the production of materials and articles for construction industry, including glass, armature boards, paint and paint products, polyurethane products, hoisting slings, decorative stone, composite panels, hardware, electronic components, furniture, doors and windows, and packing containers.The implementation of the new industrial objects by the Turkmen Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs will create over 10,000 new jobs.

6The success in the negotiation process over the resolution of the nuclear dispute between the West and Iran and the positive developments following it, have lead to a boom in Iran’s tourism sector. Iranian officials have released recent figures showing an increase in a number of the people visiting the Islamic Republic, especially from Europe. Iran is seen as one of the world’s top potential tourist destinations, as it contains a countless number of ancient sites. The country ranks fourth in Asia and first in the Middle East in terms of the number of world heritage sites, with an impressive 17 historic sites that have been added to UNESCO’s World Heritage List.

7Azerbaijan’s next Parliamentary elections will be in the fall of 2015.Many political parties and groups have already expressed their wish to participate in the elections; however, not all have yet managed to hold meetings.Meanwhile, Representatives of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) met with the Chairman of the Central Election Commission Mazahir Panahov on August 12. During the meeting, it was noted that the Central Election Commission of Azerbaijan appreciates relations with international organizations and intends to continue working with them closely.

8This is Azerbaijan’s parliamentary elections and CEC is the key actor, so we are mainly fine to play our part of helping in the trainings which the European Union is doing in many countries in the world”, said Malena Mard, head of the EU Delegation to Azerbaijan. “We review key recommendations from the OSCE and the Council of Europe regarding the candidates’ registration. We hope to play our part in assisting the Central Election Commission for which we have had cooperation for a long time. We are happy to be a part of this project here in Azerbaijan and we are not only doing it in Baku, but we will several workshops and trainings all over the country, she said.

9The Altau district of China and East Kazakhstan region signed a framework agreement on cooperation in the tourism sector on August 13.This agreement was signed by travel agencies of respective countries at the third International Forum on economic cooperation held as part of the Economic Belt of Silk Road.The sides committed to support the cooperation in cross-border tourism and interaction between tour operators of the two countries.Kazakhstan plays significant strategic and diplomatic role for China as it is the first stop on China’s Silk Road Economic Belt.

10US has joined hands with China and Russia to oppose negotiations for reforming the UN body. India and some other developing nations have worked hard for long to prepare a framework on UNSC reform. They had suggested that the UNSC include more countries as its permanent members and work in a transparent manner. However, the US, Russia and China strongly opposed the proposal – which can be described as an outcome of inter-governmental negotiations

Journalist, specialized in Middle East, Russia & FSU, Terrorism and Security issues. Founder and Editor-in-chief of the Modern Diplomacy magazine. follow @DGiannakopoulos

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Human Rights

UNESCO research on AI’s implications on human rights

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“Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly becoming the veiled decision-maker of our times.  AI has profound implications on human rights ranging from freedom of expression, privacy, to right to equality and participation; a human rights based approach must be mainstreamed to guide the development AI through inclusive multi-stakeholder participation,” said UNESCO programme specialist Xianhong Hu, when she spoke at the 40th Session of the United Nations Human Rights Council last week.

She was presenting the summary findings of UNESCO’s new report Steering AI for Knowledge Societies: A ROAM Perspective, during the panel discussion on Human Rights in the Era of Artificial Intelligence: Exploring the AI development from UNESCO’s prism of Internet Universality, this report shows these principles are intended for all interested stakeholders and AI development should align with human Rights, Openness, Accessibility and Multi-stakeholder governance.

This ROAM approach can serve to guide the ensemble of values, norms, policies, regulations, codes and ethics that govern the development and use of AI – a theme that was echoed by a number of delegates in the room.

“The complexity of AI calls for an interdisciplinary, comprehensive, global and multi-stakeholder reflection on the opportunities and challenges that come with such advanced ICTs,” stated Abdulaziz Almuzaini, Director of the UNESCO Geneva Liaison Office.

UNESCO’s ROAM framework was highly commended by delegates, professionals and academic representatives present during the panel session. “We appreciate our cooperation with UNESCO. AI is transforming our lives, the use of AI in the exploitation of big data is essential. These are all areas we need to protect human rights,” said Omar Zniber, Permanent Representative of Morocco. H.E. Zniber elaborated that AI-generated content sometimes boosts “fake news” and blurs the lines for accountability of produced content. Moreover, AI’s consequences will be felt strongly the Global South, where the potential for digital divide are stronger.

Further insight was provided by Francois Gave, Deputy Permanent Representative of France, regarding France’s position on AI and technology. Stating that AI has been placed on the G7 agenda, he noted that democracy itself could be at stake in the grander scheme of human rights, because some people do not realise that their information is being gathered and retained. At the level of the European Union, many principles surrounding human rights and data privacy exist. However, he held that “now is the time to take things further and work together.”

Dr. Eileen Donahoe, Executive Director, Stanford Global Digital Policy Incubator, moderated the session and pointed that the implication of AI for human rights are vast and multilayered. She believes the existing universal human rights framework including UNESCO’s ROAM principles, can serve as a primary guide for technologist and for policy-makers to help ensure that AI development is beneficial for humanity.

The UNESCO summary report also reveals that privacy is often infringed when AI involves opaque data collection, de-anonymization, third-party data-sharing, and the tracking and profiling of individuals.

 “Increasing Information personalization and content moderation by AI enhance users’ access to information, but at the same time can narrow down the scope of Information and the pluralism of ideas to which they are exposed. Particularly, when Internet intermediaries are pressured to use AI to combat hate speech and disinformation, this can risk removing legitimate content and thus undermine the free flow of information”, stressed UNESCO’s Hu in her presentation.

Vidushi Marda, Legal Scholar from Article 19, stressed that some people may be “forsaken” with the development of AI. She held that the unintended consequences of AI are not being considered as much as they ought to be.

Coining AI as a “trend” word, Jovan Kurbalija, Executive Director and Co-Lead of the United Nations Secretary General High Level Panel on Digital Cooperation, emphasised that using AI in local scenarios is of utmost importance. In addition to the protection of human rights, “human happiness and appreciation” must also be considered.

UNESCO’s new summary report is about ongoing research and  the final publication will elaborate key options for actions for different stakeholders as well as overarching options for shaping the future of AI development. The preliminary brochure is online at https://en.unesco.org/sites/default/files/unesco-steering_ai_for_knowledge_societies.pdf as well as on UNESCO’s webpage dedicated to Artificial Intelligence https://en.unesco.org/artificial-intelligence.

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UN launches ‘South-South Galaxy’ knowledge-sharing platform in Buenos Aires

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Flag Raising Ceremony for the Second High Level UN Conference on South-South Cooperation in Buenos Aires, Argentina. 19 March, 2019. Photo: UNIC Argentina.

When countries of the Global South forged an historic technical cooperation deal among themselves 40 years ago, digital technology was a thing of the future, but developing nations have come a long way since then.

China, for example, has managed to send an exploration vehicle to the dark side of the Moon, while India has a satellite orbiting Mars. A new digital tool launched on Tuesday, just ahead of the Second High-level UN Conference on South-South Cooperation, aims to strengthen the ways countries share their technology, to benefit developing countries.

The “South-South Galaxy”, is a global knowledge sharing and partnership platform, officially launched in the city hosting the “BAPA+40” conference – the Argentine capital, Buenos Aires – by the UN Office for South-South Cooperation (UNOSSC).

The project aims to give systematic and effective support to countries of the South so they can connect, learn and collaborate with potential partners in the wider digital world.

“The Galaxy project will place in a single digital space all the great experiences of South-South cooperation”, said Jorge Chediek, Special Envoy of the Secretary General, and Director of the UNOSSC, in an interview with UN News, which will be covering the conference throughout the week. “We are talking about the best cases, the best opportunities to establish contacts and partnerships”, he added.

The project, which was launched on the eve of the conference, seeks to unite existing platforms developed by UN agencies and their partners, allowing all in the South-South cooperation field to access and navigate a wide range of knowledge, solutions, research, and development initiatives.

“I look forward to making it a live database. The key for that is to have a strong institutional commitment of many partners and to develop it in a way that it becomes an useful element where users can find what they need to build a better reality in their countries”, Mr. Chediek explained.

From recipients, to tech pioneers

For the Special Envoy, technology has become essential for developing countries, which are increasingly taking the initiative to innovate in the digital world.

“Traditionally, the countries of the South were the recipients of technology. The productive technology, the information technology, was generated in the North,” said Mr. Chediek. “Currently these countries are creating new technologies and have developed new models of how to use them for the benefit of their societies. In this context, South-South cooperation becomes very important for other developing countries to learn and take advantage of these new tools”, he added.

The Envoy stressed during the event how in 1978, when the Buenos Aires Plan of Action was adopted to promote technical cooperation among developing countries, there was still no notion of what technology will actually represent in the 21st century.

“Who would have thought that after 40 years we would meet in Buenos Aires, at the same time that China has managed to send an exploration vehicle to the dark side of the Moon, and India orbits a satellite on Mars”, Mr. Chediek said.

UNOSSC also launched its new report “South-South Cooperation in a Digital World”, on Tuesday, which further explores and analyzes development prospects and trends affecting and impacting digital industries in the Global South, and puts forward proposals for digital industrial cooperation among Southern countries.

Uruguay hails digital opportunities

The President of Uruguay, Mr. Tabaré Vásquez, echoed the Special Envoy’s words of the Envoy saying the world was going through a torrent of technological changes, changing the development paradigm.

“The economy as we have conceived it until now has a new discipline: the digital economy, which is advancing by leaps and bounds. If we look closely at the Big Data market from 2011 to 2017, it has multiplied by 5, and it is estimated that in the next ten years it will triple”, he said.

“The immense amount of data available, the ability to process and transmit it, opens a wide range of development opportunities. However, the challenge is that these changes benefit the largest number of inhabitants of our planet and reach the entire population, serving the neediest”, Mr. Vásquez added.

Flags fly at BAPA+40

On Tuesday, the United Nations flag was raised next to flag of Argentina at the Convention and Exhibition Center of Buenos Aires, marking the formal opening of BAPA+40. UN Development Programme (UNDP) chief Achim Steiner, was joined by Jorge Chediek, and the Argentine Foreign Minister, Jorge Faurie, at the ceremony.

“South-South Cooperation enables countries to reach their development goals and reduce poverty through mutual assistance and solidarity. The Conference will adopt a crucial roadmap to accelerate the implementation of concrete solutions to achieve the sustainable development agenda”, said the UNDP chief.

“We are not talking about abstract realities. We are talking about practices and exchanges that are oriented to improve the quality of lives”, the Special Envoy told UN News.

More than 1,000 participants and high-level delegations from dozens of countries, will debate the importance of South-South Cooperation as a tool for achieving the Sustainable Development Agenda by 2030.

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Brexit: Plans in place to mitigate impact of no deal

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If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, the effects will be felt by people and companies across Europe. The EU has adopted measures to mitigate the impact of a disorderly withdrawal.

The EU has repeatedly stressed that it favours an orderly withdrawal of the UK from the Union. It concluded a withdrawal agreement with the UK to ensure the two parties can continue to collaborate on various issues to their mutual benefit, nevertheless the EU has adopted measures to reduce the impact of a possible no-deal Brexit.

These measures cannot replicate the advantages of being part of the EU. They are temporary, unilateral measures. Some will require UK’s reciprocity in order for them to come in force.

Long-term solutions depend on future discussions between the EU and the UK.

See below for the measures preparing the EU for a no-deal Brexit:

Aviation

UK airlines would be able to provide services to EU countries provided EU companies are also able to do so to the UK.

Rail services

The validity of rail safety authorisations would be extended to ensure the continuity of rail services between the UK and the EU, provided the UK does the same.

Road transport

Freight transport and bus and coach operators from the UK would be able to provide services between Britain and the EU, provided the UK provides equivalent access to EU companies.

Social security

EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU would keep social security benefits acquired before the withdrawal.

Erasmus+

Students and teachers in or from the UK would be able to complete their ongoing learning abroad as part of the Erasmus+ programme.

Peace process in Northern Ireland

Funding for bilateral peace programmes in Northern Ireland would continue until at least 2020 to help support the peace and reconciliation process started by the Good Friday agreement.

Fishing

If the UK agrees to full reciprocity of access to fishing waters, an easy procedure is in place for companies to obtain authorisation to fish. Quota swapping would still be allowed until these measures end on 31 December.

If the UK does not agree, EU firms banned from UK waters could be eligible for compensation from the European Maritime and Fisheries Fund.

Defence

EU firms will still be able to export certain items used for civilian and military purposes to the UK.

In some areas: no special measures in place

In many areas, no special measures are in place to replace existing relation with the UK in case of a no-deal. This could lead to additional costs and extra paperwork and it would be a good idea to check with relevant authorities of your country or region.

Driving licences

Driving licences issued by one EU country are automatically recognised by other member states. When the UK leaves, this will no longer apply to British licences. EU nationals wishing to drive in the UK will need to check with UK authorities if their licence is valid, while Brits will need to check with the national authorities of each EU country in which they wish to drive. International driving licences are valid across the UK and EU.

Pets

The EU pet passport, which allows your pet to travel with you to another EU country, will no longer be valid in the UK. It is likely more paperwork will be needed when taking your pet to or from the UK.

Medical treatment

Under EU rules people benefit from access to healthcare during a temporary stay in another member states using the European Health Insurance Card (EHIC). These rules will no longer apply to the UK. Both EU nationals travelling to the UK and Brits visiting EU countries should check whether their insurance covers the costs of medical treatment abroad. If not, they should consider taking out private travel insurance.

For additional information about travelling to and from the UK, check out this website from the European Commission.

Parliament’s role

All of these measures can only come into effect with European Parliament’s approval.

Any agreement reached by the EU and UK – including the withdrawal agreement and any agreement on future relations – must be agreed by the Parliament before it can enter into force.

Next steps

None of these temporary measures can replace actual agreements. Only once the UK has left the EU, the EU and the UK, as a third country, can look at the future relations and might wish to conclude deals to ensure they can continue to work together on issues ranging from trade to security, migration and defence. The political declaration attached to the withdrawal agreement, if ratified by the UK, gives the general framework on how these relations could look like.

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