Welcome to the Caspian Daily, where you will find the 10 most important things you need to know on Caspian Sea Region. We appreciate ideas, reports, news and interesting articles. Send along to Caspian[at]moderndiplomacy.eu or on Twitter: @DGiannakopoulos
1The increase in the scale and number of military exercises by Russian and NATO is making armed conflict in Europe more likely, a think tank has warned. Ian Kearns, director of the London-based European Leadership Network, said that war games “are contributing to a climate of mistrust” that has “on occasion become the focal point for some quite close encounters between the NATO and Russian militaries.”Kearns is a co-author of a study which looks in detail at two military exercises held this year by Russia and NATO, which are deeply at odds over Moscow’s interference in Ukraine. He found signs that “Russia is preparing for a conflict with NATO, and NATO is preparing for a possible confrontation with Russia.”The exercises “can feed uncertainty” and heighten the risk of “dangerous military encounters”.The ELN study said NATO is planning around 270 exercises this year, while Russia has announced 4,000 drills at all levels.
2Iran’s frozen funds: how much is really there? Iran’s portfolio of foreign assets is diverse, and the segment that has been frozen as a result of Western and international economic sanctions is spread among several countries and dates from different times. The freeze date for some goes as far back as the 1979 Islamic Revolution.The conflicting estimates about the value of assets to be released within a year of the deal’s implementation are partly due to the fact that there are different types of assets: some will be very easy to recover, while others will likely remain tied up. Details are murky.In general, the value of all Iranian assets blocked since 1979 most likely exceeds $100 billion. Nader Habibi for the Fortune.
3How much will the Iran deal really affect the U.S. dollar? President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry argue that if Congress doesn’t approve the Iran nuclear deal, the U.S. dollar will fall from grace. Recently, Kerry and Obama have argued that if the Iran deal doesn’t pass, the U.S. would be forced to slap sanctions on anyone doing business with Iran going forward. That could be some of the world’s largest banks or even our allies in Europe or China if they forge ahead with the deal and America doesn’t. That would not go down well. The fear is that these nations and banks might retaliate by ditching the dollar as their currency of choice.
4Azerbaijani and Turkey’s military officials have exchanged views on the military situation in the region.Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov met outgoing military attaché of the Turkish Armed Forces to Azerbaijan Hasan Nevzat Tasdeler on August 11, the Azerbaijani defense ministry said.They stressed the importance of high-level reciprocal visits, and exchanged views on the military-political situation in the region, military-educational issues.The sides emphasized the necessity of solving the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, saying this will help establish peace and security in the region.
5The foreign trade turnover of Kazakhstan with the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) (Russia, Belarus, Armenia) declined by 21 percent and amounted to $7.806 billion in January-June 2015 compared to the same period of 2014, according to the State Statistics Committee under the Ministry of National Economy of Kazakhstan.Kazakhstan’s exports to the EEU countries decreased by 26.8 percent and amounted to $2.351 billion in the first half of 2015. Kazakhstan’s import from Russia, Belarus and Armenia decreased by 18.2 percent and amounted to $5.455 billion. Kazakhstan’s main trade partner in the EEU is traditionally Russia. Some $2.323 billion of Kazakhstan’s exports and $5.221 billion of Kazakhstan’s imports accounted for this country in the reporting period.
6The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project has recently become much more popular. The problem is that security in the transit countries, which the pipeline should cross, i.e. Afghanistan and Pakistan, is at a very low level. Blowing up infrastructure in these countries is commonplace. For the years since the emergence of the idea of the TAPI gas pipeline, the situation has not improved. On the contrary, with the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan in 2014, the terrorist threat in the region only increased. Under these conditions, in case of the project implementation, its participants will have to take huge risks, without any guarantee. The question arises: is it worth it for Turkmenistan to take such a risk? Elena Kosolapova for Trend.
7President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev visited Almaty city on August 9, shortly after the city’s mayor was changed. Nazarbayev spoke about the progress achieved by Akhmetzhan Yessimov, the former Almaty Mayor. The latter took the office of Almaty Mayor in 2008 and only days ago was appointed Chairman of Astana EXPO-2017 National Company, the company steering Kazakhstan’s preparations for the EXPO. He explained that Yessimov’s experience was needed for organization of the upcoming EXPO-2017 in Astana. “EXPO-2017 is our future. Construction exhibition venues is just one part of this task. Another part, a more important one, is its content. EXPO-2017 is supposed to boost Kazakhstan’s transition to a new technological level based on alternative energy. The steering company needs an experienced leader capable of working with the government and regional akimats (local authorities) as well as with dozens of countries to attract investments and new technologies,” Nazarbayev said.
8Azerbaijan, the only Caucasus country with significant prospects for comprehensive development, is keen on diversifying its national economy, in particular the non-oil sector.A successful energy policy pursued by the government has enabled the South Caucasus country not only to stand on its own feet, but also to decrease dependence on petrodollars.Nariman Agayev, the Chairman for Research on Sustainable Development Center, believes that Azerbaijan can develop its non-oil sector by investing in the agricultural sector.He told local media that after three years, this sector of the national economy will bring significant revenues to the state budget.
9Saudis Looking for A Life of Problems. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham said on Tuesday that remarks by al-Jubeir in a joint press conference with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier in Berlin on Monday showed that the JCPOA, which is aimed at ending an “unnecessary crisis,” has incurred the Saudi official’s “irrational wrath”.“When the senior representative of a regional government is infuriated to such extent by the political settlement of issues in the region and at the international level, it leaves no doubt that he has chosen a life of problems and crisis,” she said.She expressed regret that the Saudi minister’s remarks about the JCPOA were an “echo of the Zionist regime’s stance.”
10Ereymentau Wind Power has kicked off tendering to build a 50MW wind farm in Yereymentau city, Kazakhstan.The developer intends for prequalified firms, joint ventures and consortia of any nationality to tender for the turnkey project.Subsequent phases could push total project capacity up to 300MW.Funding sources for build include part of a loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s Clean Technology Fund and the client, EWP.