Recent geopolitical activities have mostly painted Turkey as a diplomatic hero in mediating a role between two rival Caspian countries: Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. Past interactions between the two have demonstrated a less-than-friendly atmosphere.
But recent political agreements concerning plans for exchanges in energy capabilities have shown Turkey’s mediating efforts between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to have additional self-interested motives. Below the surface of this trilateral union, captained by Turkey’s leadership, demonstrates more of a political dependency on Turkey so as to ensure the mutual alliance between the two feuding countries continues. Turkey’s agenda highlights more than just regional stability but also economic, diplomatic, and political advancement for Turkey as a regional power. Turkey’s specific interests with these two countries indicate its own individual objectives, both economically and in terms of its national security interests.
Within the last two years Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan have cited very few things in common except for one thing: the need for energy expansion. Turkey seems to have aided both countries in identifying their mutual interests beyond this simple edict, which includes tapping into their natural gas and oil resources not just for individual gain but in support of global energy distribution. “Both Caspian countries, which are known for their big oil and gas fields, pay special attention to development of this sphere…and are going to continue developing traditional cooperation on the principles of equality and mutual benefit.” (Hasanov). Coincidentally, both countries are somewhat suffering currently in this area: Turkmenistan equates its drop in exports due to Russian economic decline as well as Russia being a bit disturbed by Turkmenistan’s closer relations with Turkey. While Azerbaijan feels some strain from Russia by the deep Azeri interest in expanding oil pipelines through Turkey in an effort to supply the EU, which naturally will decrease some natural resource leverage in Moscow.
Because of this Turkey is climbing the geopolitical ladder at a much faster rate than its Caspian neighbors and in a way has become the economic powerhouse of the region. “Given its rising economy and territorial bridge between Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Greece, Turkey has a hand in several of today’s most pressing issues: burgeoning democracies in the wake of the Arab Spring, oil trade and refinery, and policies governing the G20 economies,” (Mckelvy). Naturally, global perspectives have assessed Turkey’s diplomatic volunteer work as yet another political badge for its reputational sleeve. Turkey has perpetuated an image of political stability and financial security. However, further inspection shows Turkey is also being diplomatically proactive and trying to prepare for its own energy troubles in the not so far off future. “Turkey’s demand for natural gas has grown more than three-fold in the last decade. Scant rainfall in recent years has forced power stations to rely more on gas rather than hydropower, of which Turkey usually has plenty.” (Barysch) As Turkey addresses its own future energy concerns, it is trying to position itself as the EU’s energy hub, transporting gas from both Turkmen and Azeri gas fields.
Turkey’s “heroic” role in aiding the EU through its energy concerns will do more than grant them entry and favor with the EU. Turkey will undoubtedly gain geopolitical and economic leverage with many of the countries to its east and west. To lead such an endeavor will have unimaginable local benefits that could sharply decrease dependencies on Russian energy. Though concrete plans to execute Turkey’s energy ambitions have yet to begin, it is clear that its energy endeavors are very much feasible and have gained consistent popularity amongst its allies and the local populace. Russia, of course, will always remain the wild card.
As Turkey gains influential ties through its energy bargains, its plans have also gained significant support from America, with recent media reports suggesting a kind of mentorship developing for effective energy resources and distribution strategies. “This week, the U.S. Trade and Development Agency awarded a grant to Turcas BM Kuyucak Jeotermal Elektrik Üretim A. Ş. (TBK), a Turkish joint venture owned primarily by BM Holding and Turcas Energy Holding. The grant funds a feasibility study that will evaluate the technical and financial specifications for a geothermal energy project designed to supply 13.2 Megawatts (MW) of renewable energy to the Turkish electrical grid.” (Humphrey) With the support of U.S. public and private sector initiatives, Turkey is actively elevating its overall efficiency and technology and bringing to life the aforementioned energy ambitions. Effectively building rapport with America can potentially provide the energy investments needed to initiate real-time construction over various large-scale projects across the Caspian region.
As Turkey lines all its ducks in a row, it is neither savior of the great energy dilemma nor conspirator against Russia. Rather, Turkey seems to have taken an opportunistic strategy for its diplomatic relations, recognizing flaws and shortcomings in others in order to build on new opportunities and connections. Turkey’s actions are commendable at least for demonstrating a keen intuition for understanding the nuances of international relations and the complexity for developing strategic partnerships. However, these aspirations for Caspian political stardom have the possibility to fail should Turkey not maintain diplomatic equilibrium amongst all of the Caspian players. Considering this is still a somewhat unstable region and the massive partner/rival sitting to the north of the Caspian Sea, it is going to be no small diplomatic achievement should Turkey succeed in pulling all of these deft maneuvers off.
