Four years of fighting and no concrete solutions coming from regional, international actors or organizations, not a single action and agreement reached so far that would lead to the end of the conflict.
The collapse of the whole country’s system, rising number of ISIS fighters, hunger, chaos and human suffering, the suppression, the stagnation, slaughter, bleeding and deteriorating state and living standards are taking Syria further into the cycle of violence, poverty, misery and no unity in sight. Syria’s education, health and social welfare systems are also in a state of collapse. Life is hard in a country where every four of five Syrians live in poverty.
According to United Nations (UN) since the war began in Syria in 2011, an estimated 220.000 Syrians, mostly citizens have been killed. It all began with Arab spring and anti-governmental demonstration in March 2011. Protests against Bashar al-Assad that has been president since the July 2000 and where before him his father ruled Syria from 1970-200, quickly escalated into violent fighting with forming the Free Syrian Army. After security forces opened fire on a demonstration, and killing several, even more people went on the streets. In 2011 a state of emergency was declared and the High State Security Court was abolished. The same year United States imposed economic sanctions against president Bashar al-Assad and European Union banned the import of Syrian oil. Furthermore the Arab League suspended Syria’s membership and also imposed sanctions against the Syrian regime. The next year, in the year 2012 we have seen many resolutions by UN than were not signed and were vetoed by different countries. With no peace in sight foreign countries have pulled their ambassadors from the country in war. Since the conflict escalated both the government and the rebels have been accused of war crimes, causing of civilian suffering, blocking the access to food, water and health services and even use of chemical attacks. First reports of usage of chemical weapon sarin came in the year 2013 and with it more international support to the rebels. Syria agreed to a plan to eliminate chemical weapons and stance that Syria is not in a civil war but the war on terror. In 2014 president Bashar al-Assad was reelected receiving 88.7% of the vote in the country’s first elections since 2011. The same year USA and allies launched airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria.
Conflict is further complicated because of opposing ethnic groups and the division between secular and Islamist fighters. The patterns of fighting are blear because of numerous fighting groups and many fronts. We have Kurds in the northeastern part of the county, regime forces with allies and opposition so called rebellion composed of mainly Sunnis, ISSIS fighters with al-Qaida presence but unfortunately no side is heading towards victory.
The situation is worsening from one day to another. In March this year, more than 3.9 million refugees from Syria were residing in neighboring countries. In Turkey there are as many as 1.700.000, in Lebanon 1.200.000, in Jordan 625.000, in Iraq 245.000 and in Egypt 137.000 based on reports of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNCHR). A further 7.6 million have been internally displaced (IDPS) within the country, bringing the total number forced to flee their homes to more than 11 million which is half of the country’s pre-population crisis. In the last four years more than 11 million Syrians have been forced to leave from their homes. In the light of recent events and with the reports of the Assad regime used chlorine gas as part of an attack many calls have come from the international community for an investigation into the allegations but exodus continues.
Many regional and international actors play important role in the crisis. The regime has support of Iran with financial aid, some combat groups and technical support. Assad has also Hezbollah on his side with its members fighting on behalf of government troops. Further on Russia military supports and supplies Assad’s government in arms. Among the many supporters also Venezuela is helping the country in need with diesel import. Assad’s regime has also other supporters such as Iraq, Algeria and others. In ever shifting battlefield environment United States (US) led coalition airstrikes against IS continued from March further. Supporters of Anti-Assad movement compose of major Sunni states in the Middle East among others Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The Arab League has also recognized the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces as the legitimate representatives of the Syrian people. European countries, Britain and France did also political, military and logistic supported the opposition. We have also seen diplomatic isolation of the Syrian government by numerous countries.
With neither side able to win only diplomatic solution is possible to end the war in the country. Many attempts to try to reach the peace were seen, among others Arab League peace plans from 2011-2012, Russian peace initiatives, Kofi Anan peace plan 2012, Eid al-Adha cease fire attempt and then UN convened conference in Switzerland with 2012 Geneva Communique that broke down after two rounds, where Syrian government refused to describe the opposition as rebel group instead they called them terrorists. We will see by the end of this month if the new UN effort to find a path to peace in Syria in Geneva with meeting and talking with more than 40 Syrian groups and 20 nations, including Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey will bring any solutions.