Connect with us

Central Asia

Kazakhstan beyond Borat

Published

on

Kazakhstan, it seems, has a very clear and coherent idea of what kind of image does it want to project on the international stage and more so, what kind it does not.

After the infamous movie Borat, which once again showed how powerful of a tool branding can be, Kazakhstan was left to a PR disaster, significantly fuelled with the public`s educational deficiency. The unfolding events were interesting because the movie itself was actually targeting the stereotyping and ignorance of (mainly) American audience, but had a different effect, especially in the western countries, for precisely the same reasons. That resulted in a branding fiasco for Kazakhstan, for many were left convinced that there were leaving and breathing Borats all over the place. This was a warning sign for all those countries who did not yet establish a powerful image of themselves in the international community, for these so called unbranded countries always run the risk of not being in full control of their image and reputation (and, as in the case of Borat, someone else can quickly do that for them).

In reality, Kazakhstan has been trying since the early years of independence to introduce the country to the awareness of the global community. Although reluctantly declaring independence from the Soviet Union, it has become vital for the country to differentiate itself from Russia to gain significantly in its soft power repertoire of tools. This process, along with the strategic positioning of the country, gave rise to the well- known Kazakhstan image of being able to balance the interests of many great powers, intersecting in the Central Asia, including Russia, China, US, EU, Turkey and Iran. Thus, Kazakhstan developed the approach of multi- vector foreign policy, enabling the country to fruitfully cooperate with various international players. Many of its sustained efforts on the image building go into the promotion of constructing bridges between the East and the West, which is becoming ever more important in the light of the recent Ukrainian crisis. By positioning itself as the sort of regional mediator, Kazakhstan is asserting that it could be able to some degree defuse the simmering conflict between Kremlin and the West. The process of winning the hearts and minds is especially focused on evading the possibility of Kazakhstan being dragged down by Western sanctions imposed on Russia. The balancing of the powerful interests on the axis East- West is surely not easy, but beneficial for the world striving to break from such black and white divisions.

The country therefore seeks its external legitimization and is pursuing its aim via variety of different avenues. It is already represented in the UN Human Rights Council and has successfully bid for chairmanship of OSCE in 2010. In addition to that, Kazakhstan is bidding for the non- permanent seat in the UN Security Council for 2017 and hoping to host the Winter Olympics in 2022. All these efforts are concerned with presenting a good role model for the former Soviet republics, other countries with similar backgrounds and developing nations in general. The fruits of Kazakhstan multi- vector foreign policy and successful engagement in the international affairs are definitely one of the images Kazakhstan wants to be renowned for.

“Kazakhstan- the honest broker” is therefore surely one of the loudest mantras in the country PR machine. In addition to prolific regional and global involvement, Kazakhstan also has a long track-record of promoting nuclear non- proliferation and supporting peaceful resolutions and dialogue. Last year, Astana co- founded the launch of a Brussels- based think- tank, Eurasian Council of Foreign Affairs and is also preparing for the imminent launch of an official development aid program called KazAID, initially intended to focus on the immediate neighborhood with the help of the UN Development Program.

KazAID does not mark the first time that the country has decided to embark upon providing development aid, but it is the first organized attempt to do so. Kazakhstan has provided millions of dollars worth of medicines, fuel, seeds and other basic supplies for Kyrgyzstan during its political and humanitarian crisis in 2010 and has funded a scholarship program for Afghan students for several years now. The new agency, KazAID, will therefore provide organization and systematization on a higher level for upcoming projects of such nature and align them with the country`s other foreign policy and economic goals. Since Kazakhstan is commonly referred to as the most developed and economically stable nation of the Central Asia and Caucasus it might be, combined with its rising international profile, optimally enabled to provide such help in order to assist in securing a broader regional stability and development.

In addition to widening the regional and global involvement, Kazakhstan Is looking into another tool for introducing the country to the wider population and boost the soft power strength; tourism. The country supposedly intents to invest some 10 billion $ to develop its tourism sector by 2020 and has dropped the strict visa regime to introduce a temporary visa- free regime for 10 selected countries, including United States, Britain, Japan, the U.A.E., Germany, and Malaysia. It has been said that if nothing else, Borat sparked the interest for the country among the travelling souls, putting the country on the map for the go- to places and Kazakhstan has been trying ever since to capitalize on this.

Similar to other Central Asian states, but rather other developing countries of the world, too, Kazakhstan does not rely on its hard power. Its military is focused on regional common security structures and peacekeeping support operations and is domestically under reforms to become capable of handling low- intensity conflicts, therefore establishing smaller, more specialized and more mobile units. Rather, Kazakhstan focuses on achieving external legitimization as a cooperative, developed and reliable actor on the international stage.

Being an authoritarian country on the slow path towards democratization, internal legitimization is a different story than that of external. Like in many other similar regimes, the regime`s success lies in the capability to build a plausible narrative on the outlined development path for the country and consequently gain substantial support from the overall population. For now, the economic growth, substantial FDIs, multi- vector foreign policy, successful regional and international engagement, good neighborhood policy, border delimitation treaties with all neighboring countries as well as the celebration of multinational character of the population, equal rights to different religions and strict prohibition of voicing overly radical views, be it religious or political, have kept the population in consent with the regime, even though the latter has a track record of human rights violations and oppression of democratic values.

Many analysts agree that the current economic crisis, combined with the Western sanctions on Russian economy, could harm the social contract between the people of Kazakhstan and the regime in Astana. Clearly, this reality has not escaped its leadership for there have been many incentives and initiatives to boost the economy that found itself at a standstill. Holding early presidential elections this year was therefore a logical step for the country`s president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who won yet another term in the office. His victory (although not meeting all the requirements for free and fair elections) has reassured him on his position, immobilize any attempts from outsiders to instrumentalize internal political dissent and strengthen the social trust of the population. Henceforth, everything depends on the regime`s capability to meet the promised ends. Accordingly, Kazakhstan might have to reconsider the strategy of attracting the attention from the international community through costly, big and ambitious events.

Another issues Kazakhstan may have in the future is the fact that much of the approval the country receives for its work and attitude in the international community can be turned into a PR campaign of its leadership. Consequently, it is not the country that gets promoted, but the president. That might not be a step into the right direction, especially since it is largely seen as a diversion from the topics of human rights abuses inside the country, although the recently signed Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the EU brings about hopes for improvement. Or, as Kazakhstan Minister of Foreign Affairs Erlan Idrissov said: “Rare among Eastern countries, Kazakhstan is a secular state that is making progress towards creating our own distinct and culturally attuned democracy. As with all young countries, we may sometimes falter, but I have no doubt that we are on the right road”.

Central Asia

Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit and Later Developments: The Politics Analyzed

Published

on

The summit’s mood was a somber one, toned down by Ukraine war, mounting global economic and environmental crises.

Important developments are:

  1. Strengthening Economic Ties

New initiatives planned to develop economic and transport corridors, tourism and services trade and expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative. Trade within SCO grew 12 percent annually. China aims $2.3 trillion trade with SCO within next 5 years.

Today, China and Russia conducted $140 billion in trade, which will reach around $200 billion by yearend. India also increased purchases of Russian oil, coal, and fertilizer and became one of its largest fuel customers since the Ukraine invasion.

Pakistan plans to import Russian gas and Putin offered building a pipeline to supply it. Pakistan desperately needs Russian gas because of its energy crisis.

Meanwhile, economic developments in Central Asian resulting from Russian and Chinese investments have exceeding $61 billion.

  •  Strengthening Collective Security Mechanisms

There has been some success in collective security cooperation. The Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure is functioning, and several new independent security mechanisms planned.

China and Russia had steadily built economic and strategic ties. Russia plans further strengthening them.

  • Expansion of the SCO

Iran has now become SCO’s ninth member. Belarus seeks full membership. Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia will become dialogue partners. Turkey’s received observer status. Eight countries are expected to become members.

5. Voice of Developing Nations

Joint statement on climate change called for balance between reducing carbon emissions and allowing poorer states to catch up with developed countries. SCO called for a balanced approach between emissions reduction and development.

  • Divisions within the SCO

Summit was expected to provide chance for Russia and China to make a case for new world order. However, the war sowed divisions, as no government favored Putin’s actions. Clinched in confrontation with the West, Putin denied isolation, but the summit proved otherwise.

Given the war, some Central Asian leaders worry about Russian behavior. Kazakhstan and Pakistan refuse to toe Moscow’s line. Kazakhstan has aided Ukraine. China’s refusal to condemn Russia has caused unease among some countries, hindering efforts building regional ties. Also complicating picture is India, which like China had not outrightly condemned Russia, nor participated in Western sanctions on it. India has strong military ties with Russia but is changing tone. Both China and India have mildly criticized Russia. On September 21 Putin raised the threat of nuclear response in the war and ordered reservists mobilization. He was widely condemned. America said threats were nothing new. So far, Putin seems undaunted by criticism.

Economic cooperation between China and Russia likely to grow being mutually beneficial. However, China trying to stay out of Ukraine mess and its danger. While Putin’s war has yet to spread beyond Ukraine, it could trigger larger war between Russia and NATO. Therefore, China has wisely urged Russia to de-escalate and called for a cease-fire. China continues balancing positions as the goal of Xi’s foreign policy is to put country first.

Since Biden supports India as permanent member of UNSC, it will also call Russia not to escalate conflict. Earlier, India had repeatedly called for diplomacy. Modi’s recent criticism of Russia is setback for Putin as war drives a wedge in relations.

  • Failures

Firstly, Modi did not meet Xi. The two have not met since the border conflict more than two years ago. Delhi is wary of Beijing’s growing regional influence, especially in Pakistan.

Also, the leaders of rivals Pakistan and India did not meet.

Two failed opportunities.

Secondly, the summit failed to take any meaningful action on the current global food and energy crisis linked to the war. Resultantly, the regional food supply may face even bigger challenges in the future.

Thirdly, region requires massive investment in climate resilience development. Though requested by Pakistan, climate action framework not discussed.

Fourthly, China and Russia failed committing needed financing of institutions because of their own economic weaknesses.

Fifthly, Russia’s Ukraine actions not condemned by members. Only Turkey’s President Erdogan urged Putin to return occupied territory to Ukraine.

Sixthly, there was leadership failure. For Putin, the summit was a chance to show that Russia was not isolated. For Xi it was an opportunity to shore up credentials as global political leader. Both failed.

Lastly, summit did not focus on regional challenges: war in Ukraine; rippling impact of rising regional food prices; energy crisis roiling economies; and climate emergency in Pakistan.

Today, SCO is not suitable for China to push any world order. As a multilateral organization, it is much weaker than EU or ASEAN. Fortification of SCO remains daunting challenge.

Continue Reading

Central Asia

Kyrgyz-Tajik Conflict: Small States Becoming Victim In Games Of The Great Powers

Avatar photo

Published

on

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan sign protocol on regulation of armed conflict in border areas. Photo: © AKIpress News Agency

The Military conflict on September 14th 2022, on the border of two post-soviet countries- Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan took lives of more than 90 people from both sides. “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyzstan considers that the events which took place on September 14-17, 2022 necessary to state as a pre-planned armed act of aggression by Tajikistan against the sovereign state Kyrgyzstan. As a result of the inhuman actions of the Tajik side 59 citizens of Kyrgyzstan were killed and 140 were injured, about 140,000 people were forced to evacuate. But the Tajik officials and mass media actively accusing Kyrgyzstan of aggression and violation of non-attack agreements. Both sides blame each other for the outbreak of violence. As the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyzstan declared that the information of the Ministry of Foreign affairs and other authorities of Tajikistan did not correspond to reality. The Kyrgyz side has all the evidences (photo and video materials) that recorded the beginning of the aggression, as well as all the crimes committed by the Tajik military on the territory of Kyrgyzstan. If necessary, the Kyrgyz side is ready to provide this evidence.

Main Reasons.

The Kyrgyz-Tajik border 950 kilometers long. At the moment, Bishkek and Dushanbe have recognized only 520 kilometers of a common border, the rest of the sections since the collapse of the USSR are considered controversial and run along villages and roads.

The conflict has many aspects: here are territorial disputes, competition for the possession of water resources, and inter-ethnic problems. It is also associated with activities on the border of criminal structures, with smuggling, with drug trafficking. Radical religious organizations may also be involved in it. Therefore, all relations in the conflict zone between the Kyrgyz and Tajik sides are extremely aggravated. And the reason for the next clashes can be anything, any petty domestic situation.

In spring 2021 a similar bloody conflict took place on the border of two republics. As it turned out later, this escalation had domestic reasons. It was provoked by a dispute over the sharing of a water distribution point located between Kyrgyz and Tajik villages, which ended with a fight afterwards by killing each other by weapons. The state border between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is 950 kilometers, and 520 km of it has not yet passed the demarcation procedures. Despite that the Central Asian states gained independence more than thirty years ago.

The reasons of the latest invasion of Tajikistan to the territory of Kyrgyzstan still not clear. What could be the reason of breaking the Agreement of non invasion? Why it started the same day of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit? Why its happening after the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict? Why Post-Soviet countries are in war with each other? Scholars and some officials have various assumptions about the latest bloody clash. “There are provocateurs and third forces.” – says the head of the government of Kyrgyzstan Akylbek Zhaparov.

The military conflict started the same date of the summit of the SCO in Samarkand. On September 14, the governments of China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan signed a long-anticipated  agreement to push ahead with construction of a railroad linking these countries that will  establish a shorter route to Europe bypassing sanctions-hit Russia. So according to some Kyrgyz officials the clashes on Tajik and Kyrgyz borders started after the signing of the agreement about the construction of the railway-plausibly as a warning about the discontent of Russia, which throughout the history of the Central Asian countries has tried to make the region as economically dependent as possible. Moreover the President of Tadjikistan Emomali Rahmon wouldn’t invade into territory of Kyrgyzstan without Putin’s support.

If the first group of people considering that two countries are in this battle because of Russian tactics, the second group of people like the Deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Alexei Chepa noting that the cause of this conflict lies not only in unresolved disputes between the two countries. They suppose the external forces, primarily enemies of Russia, have decided to take advantage of the situation and create conflicts in the region. As they use the internal problems of Tajikistan and the conflict situation with Afghanistan, where the United States left a huge amount of weapons and a certain contingent of troops. And all this are aimed at using conflicts to further discredit Russia. We see this in the example of conflicts arising in Kazakhstan, Armenia and Azerbaijan and in some countries of the Caucasus.

This conflict would repeatedly escalate and next time would lead more death of civilians until the demarcation and delimitation of Kyrgyz-Tajik borders process would be finished and signed. This kind of military battles can lead to the unleashing of a large-scale interstate conflict, as well as to the destabilization of the situation in the Central Asian region as well.

Continue Reading

Central Asia

Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

Avatar photo

Published

on

On September 15 and 16, 2022, the extended format of participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are scheduled to meet in Samarkand, the ancient Silk Road Karavansarai in Uzbekistan. SCO —founded in 2001— is the first international organization founded by Beijing. It started as the Shanghai Five with the task of demarcating borders between China and its Central Asian neighbors: Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Russia, and Tajikistan, following the breakup of the Soviet Union. The meeting in Samarkand marks the 21st Head of State summit of this organization, which is growing in international importance. All Heads of member states have confirmed their attendance.

SCO came to the attention of Washington policy makers, when Vladimir Putin used it as a vehicle to set a timeline on U.S. bases in Central Asia there to support operations in Afghanistan. Through direct engagement of President Bush with Chinese President Hu Jintao, this deadline was not repeated in the communique of the following year. This demonstrated Beijing’s unwillingness to have an open rift with Washington and made clear China’s leadership of the organization. Beijing’s interest in preventing anti-American statements has changed in the last 17 years. With the return of Great Power Competition in the Washington-Beijing relationship, who leads the SCO and what is on its agenda should be of considerable interest in Washington.

The SCO is no longer just a talk-shop between Russia and China with its Central Asian neighbors, but is now expanding to the Gulf, South Asia, South East Asia, and the Caucasus. The expanded membership of the SCO makes up 24% of the global GDP, more than half that of the G7 and more than that of the European Union in 2020. SCO’s expanded participant list accounts for 44% of the global population.

If those seeking membership status at the upcoming meeting in Samarkand achieve their goal, the SCO will include in its ranks: Azerbaijan and Armenia who recently fought a war in Nagorno-Karabakh; Saudi Arabia and Iran, competitors over the direction of the Gulf; and current members India and Pakistan, historic adversaries. Afghanistan and Mongolia are currently observer states in the organization. Partner countries of the organization are Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia, Nepal, Turkey, and Sri Lanka. The status of dialogue partner state will likely be granted to Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia in September. Bahrain and Maldives are next in line for the latter status.

In 2005, the US had an opportunity to pursue observer status with the SCO. Those who supported it, saw it as opportunity for the US to shape this organization and for Afghanistan to reconnect with its neighbors with American support. Others thought our being an observer of the SCO would lend legitimacy to this nascent organization. Yet, overtime, flaws in the latter stance surfaced and was repeated by the Obama Administration’s failed attempt to isolate China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

In a vote on April 7 for the suspension of Russia’s membership in the UN Human Rights Council, Turkey was the only participant in the expanded SCO out of 18 countries that voted in favor of the resolution. Of the member states, all voted against the resolution, with India and Pakistan abstaining.

For members of the SCO, energy highlights their importance on the global stage and is a tool used in their foreign policy. Following the 2022 summit, SCO states, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, among others, will account for over half of the world’s oil production annually.

Until 2020, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization played a largely regional role for China, the heart of which was Central Asia. Initially reluctant, the recent rapid expansion of the SCO shows that China realigned the organization from a regional one, to one capable of implementing its global ambitions.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization gained greater significance with the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, where an economically weaker Russia can turn to China, a partner with no limits and its leadership over the SCO.

At the 2022 Boao Forum, President Xi restated the goal of the 2021 SCO Dushanbe Declaration, where he articulated a world order not directed by the West. At this same summit, SCO members approved Iran’s membership despite international sanctions after a 15 year waiting period. Xi articulated in a flourish, calling it a community of a common destiny of mankind.

This has echoes of Chairman Mao’s vision of world relations, dating back to the 1970s. In meetings with Dr. Kissinger, Mao posited that imperialism and hegemony violate the world order. Instead, China should expand into what is now known as the Global South, including countries in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia. China’s mission lives on and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is becoming its vehicle.

Continue Reading

Publications

Latest

Reports51 mins ago

Trade in 25 Technologies Can Help Climate Action

Based on 30 interviews with industry and academia, the Accelerating Decarbonization through Trade in Climate Goods and Services report highlights...

Southeast Asia3 hours ago

Muslim piety in Southeast Asia mirrors increased religious traditionalism in the Middle East

In a mirror image of recent polling in the Middle East, a just-published survey of Muslims in Southeast Asia suggests...

Finance4 hours ago

Liberia: Prospects for Inclusive and Sustainable Growth

The World Bank today launched the third edition of the annual Liberia Economic Update with the theme: “Investing in Human...

Reports6 hours ago

East Asia and Pacific Sustaining Growth, Restraining Inflation, but Facing Risks Ahead

Growth in most of developing East Asia and the Pacific rebounded in 2022 from the effects of COVID-19, while China...

Tech News7 hours ago

Crypto Sustainability Coalition to Investigate Potential of Web3 Technologies in Fighting Climate Change

The World Economic Forum launched the Crypto Sustainability Coalition, which will investigate how web3 and blockchain tools can be leveraged...

South Asia9 hours ago

World ‘must engage’ or risk Afghanistan’s collapse

“Patience is running out” for many in the international community when it comes to effectively engaging with Afghanistan’s de facto...

World News10 hours ago

Iran: UN condemns violent crackdown against hijab protests

Authorities in Iran must fully respect the rights of protestors calling for justice for Mahsa Amini, the young woman who...

Trending