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Trust

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It’s all a matter of trust, and, frankly, the people don’t trust you. “You” refers to the government, big business and the media. The lack of trust applies to a huge assortment of entities.

It starts with the present federal government administration, including the President and his vast assortment of gurus. It continues with congress and the judiciary, state and local governments. It extends to big business concerns such as the defunct Enron company, some auto and oil industry firms, numerous banks, several Wall Street investment brokerages, behemoths including AIG, and specific claim-dodging insurance companies. The list goes on ad infinitum.

Government officials of all stripes, Chief Executive Officers (CEOs), their business executives and media moguls better wake up and change their ways. Past history has caught up with them. It’s a history reeking from failures, lack of oversight, corruption, fraud, greed, lies, shams, gimmicks and outright incompetence. The people grow weary of it all and are becoming angry. A restive populace indicates a desire for change, but this time people want the right kind of change.

Things folks would like to change run the gamut from the simple through the complex to the sublime. Let’s consider a few examples starting with a simple one like a typical ad offering a product on sale for $19.95. Why not say it like it is? The people know that the item is not really on sale in the first place, and that it is actually rounded off at an out-of-pocket cost of $20.00. They are not impressed with the ploys and gimmickry employed with slick sales tactics. In fact, they find these rather tedious and disgusting. Again, a newspaper subscription promotion offering the Sunday paper for $1.00 a copy per month for a full year sounds good, right? The catch is that one must pay for the subscription by allowing the newspaper to debit your credit card for payment. Otherwise the price increases from $4.00 to $6.25 per month. Of course, the promoter does not divulge this information until the potential customer is asked for their credit card information. Then the subterfuge becomes clear, and the client exhibits a degree of irritability at having been temporarily duped. It all ends in a waste of time, effort and no sale. Now some people would call these shrewd business tactics, gimmicks or ploys; others would label them as they are – deceit or outright lies.

There are other simple business gimmicks (let’s call them little lies) that people would like to change as well. The favorite deceptions of the business community are the rebate versus a straightforward, simple discount; the “plus postage and handling” ploy; and the usurious interest rates and excessive overdraft fees on credit cards by banks. We have all encountered these odious practices and have acquired a built-in aversion to them. The business community should reconsider these gimmicks and eliminate them. The majority of their potential customers have already done so in their own minds.

Some of the more complex things that folks would like to change might be exemplified in   the many pork barrel projects inserted into numerous hand bills passed by our politicians at the various levels of government. As any past president or governor can testify, the line item veto is needed here in order to defeat the pork barrel riders attached to valid legislation without vetoing the entire hand bill. Does the “bridge to nowhere in Alaska” or the “$600 toilet housing with seat” for U.S. Air Force aircraft ring a bell with anyone? Of course, our elected politicians would never consider allowing the line item veto to become law. That would ruin their pork barrel tactics; it would take the cover off their deceit and wholesale hypocrisy. Ah, but there is always the next election at which the electorate can level the playing field by eliminating those politicians deserving of censure and rebuke for their misdeeds. The hypocrites involved in such shenanigans seem to forget that they will ultimately pay the price. Admittedly, however, too many of them get away with their deceptions for too long a time before justice catches up with them, if it ever does.

Government is not the only culprit. What of the oil industry’s artificially inflated gasoline and oil prices, especially as a prelude to seasonal climate changes, long weekends and traditional holidays – are these prices possibly manipulated by oil company executives just as they are by the oil producing nations? This manufactured price inflation is only superseded by the outright greed exhibited at annual bonus or retirement times by industry CEOs.  

One of the things people would like to change that has been getting a lot of attention lately is the health care program. This issue and attempts to resolve it border on the sublime. Yes, all agree that health care reform is needed and that no one solution will satisfy all of the people. Yet we must ensure that in trying to correct the ills of the past, we don’t incur even greater flaws in the future program. Formerly, the insurance companies controlled too much; at present they still do; in future they better not. Additionally, hospital and doctor fees have been outrageously high and must be tempered and moderated. The people, too, must be educated to impose self-discipline so as not to abuse the new system that will eventually be established. And most important of all is that oversight must be established and enforced to keep everyone relatively honest.

The Obama Administration and Congressional Health Care Proposals all claim that their respective plans will be paid for out of savings from the current health care program, primarily MEDICARE. This is indeed a wild assumption, and there is no reason to believe that it will be so. Fraud, waste and abuse have not been stopped over all the past years of the currently existing program and won’t be stopped by implementing any new health plan. Why is this the case? Corruption, waste and abuse will continue because of human nature. Even if strict oversight is established, people in government, business and citizens-at-large will find ways to defeat the system and continue their wasteful, abusive and corrupt ways. Wherever people and money are involved, fraud, waste and abuse will follow. The best we can hope for is to keep some modicum of discipline and preventive control.

Equally sublime are unsubstantiated assertions of racial discrimination, liberal claims of conservative obstructionism, and conservative claims of democratic socialism regarding the health care issue. These are all balderdash. The liberal and conservative entities are simply pursuing their separate agendas rather than searching for ways to compromise and come to agreement. The liberals promote their relative agenda of universal health care for everyone and include a public option, complete coverage for abortion, contraception, sterilization, human embryonic stem cell therapy, euthanasia and assisted suicide. The conservatives want universal coverage as well but oppose the public option for economic reasons and all of the other dubious and controversial coverages on moral grounds. They do not want tax dollars used to promote those efforts which they consider to be morally wrong and intrinsically evil. The quest for compromise and agreement continues on the health care issue, as does polarization of liberal and conservative political and business positions. Sooner or later a solution will be reached through compromise. Hopefully, the compromise will overcome all the sublime arguments and will result in an improved, economical and morally acceptable health care plan for all with adequate oversight to prevent, or at least subdue, fraud, waste and abuse.

Now let’s get back to the primary issue of trust. It is not so much the President and CEOs that cause our disbelief, although they are not exempt. It is, rather, all the President’s men and corporate business executives in general that contribute to the public’s mistrust. It is the President’s corps of operatives and gurus with their past extremely liberal or even radical histories and their present hidden agendas that contribute to the public’s suspicions as to the administration’s true motives and goals. As a consequence, those same suspicions apply to President Obama himself, since he appointed his cabinet and collection of gurus. As for business in general, we the people have always been wary of its hypocrisy and sleazy, deceptive practices. Where else did the warnings “buyer beware” and “get it in writing and signed” originate? “By their works you shall know them.” Therein lies a clue to the people’s mistrust. A greater degree of transparency by all concerned would help to reduce or eliminate that mistrust.

In an effort to be transparent, the President tries to explain and clarify his position on each important issue facing the nation with frequent media events and public speeches. Yet these are unconvincing; they amount to overexposure and information overload. He is trying too hard. If his positions on the issues are so good for the people and the country, why aren’t they obviously so? Why does he feel that he must convince us of their worth? Why is it that half of this nation’s people don’t believe him?

They don’t believe him because it is a matter of trust. The people are suspicious and lacking in trust of President Obama’s administration, and he who leads it, because the final results of the administration’s initiated actions on the important issues are still pending. President Barack Obama talks a good story, but words are cheap. Shakespeare expresses it best: “. . . truth hath better deeds than words to grace it.” Earning the people’s trust depends on achieving positive results on critical problems such as health care, the economy, jobs, trade, the housing and credit markets, the deficit, and successful handling of the Afghan and Iraqi Wars, for example. These issues and their outcome will determine whether the people’s trust will be bestowed or withheld. All of these matters, and more, are currently unresolved. We shall have to wait and see how things work out regarding the critical issues of the day. Meanwhile, doubt and mistrust prevail.

Despite all the suspicion, fear and anxiety, the President and his administration, congress and the judiciary, CEOs, their corporate executives and the media must be given the benefit of a doubt – at least temporarily. They must be given time to prove that they are worthy of trust, once again. After all of the debacles and misfires of the past several years, this will be a monumental task. We wish them well in pursuit of their goals and the people’s trust, all the while keeping in mind the biblical admonition – “By their actions you shall know them.”

Amidst all the turmoil and doubt, one might be prompted to consider two possible prophecies – that of a young man pursuing his liberal vision, or one of an old man dreaming his conservative dream. Whichever prophecy is realized, we must not sell our souls to the devil, yet all must take a stand and abide by it. We, the people, must choose wisely. We must caution our government, big business, and the media to take heed lest past and present foul deeds incur the people’s wrath and lead to anarchy. The powers that be must beware of what changes they institute lest they reap the whirlwind. And reap it they will if they do not regain the people’s trust. They must remember the prophet Jonah’s warning to Nineveh to repent. Armageddon draws near.

Economy

Afghan crisis: Changing geo-economics of the neighbourhood

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The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has caused a rapid reshuffle in the geo-economics of South, Central and West Asia. While the impact on the Afghan economy has been profound, triggering inflation and cash shortage, it’s bearing on Afghanistan’s near neighbourhood has wider far-reaching consequences. The US spent almost $24 billion on the economic development of Afghanistan over the course of 20 years. This together with other international aid has helped the country to more than double its per capita GDP from $900 in 2002 to $2,100 in 2020. As a major regional player, India had invested around $3 billion in numerous developmental projects spanning across all the 34 provinces of Afghanistan. Indian presence was respected and valued by the ousted Afghan dispensation. With the US, India and many other countries deciding to close their embassies in Afghanistan and the US deciding to freeze Afghanistan’s foreign reserves amounting to $9.5 billion, the economy of the country has hit a grinding halt. IMF too has declared that Kabul won’t be able to access the $370 million funding which was agreed on earlier. The emerging circumstances are ripe for China and Pakistan to cut inroads into the war-torn country as the rest of the world watches mutely.

Beijing’s major gain would be the availability of Afghanistan as a regional connector in its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) linking the economies of Central Asia, Iran and Pakistan. Afghanistan is already a member of the BRI with the first Memorandum of Understanding signed in 2016. Only limited projects were conducted in Afghanistan under the initiative till now due to security concerns, geographic conditions and the government’s affinity towards India. Chinese officials have repeatedly expressed interest in Afghanistan joining the CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor), a signature undertaking of the BRI. CPEC is a $62 billion project which would link Gwadar port in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province to China’s western Xinjiang region. The plan includes power plants, an oil pipeline, roads and railways that improves trade and connectivity in the region.

China also eyes at an estimated $1 trillion mineral deposits in Afghanistan, which includes huge reserves of lithium, a key component for electric vehicles. This mineral wealth is largely untapped due lack of proper networks and unstable security conditions long-prevalent in the country. Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted Taliban representatives in late June in Tianjin to discuss reconciliation and reconstruction process in Afghanistan. Taliban reciprocated by inviting China to “play a bigger role in future reconstruction and economic development” of the country. After the fall of Kabul, China has kept its embassy open and declared it was ready for friendly relations with the Taliban. It had also announced that it would send $31 million worth of food and health supplies to Afghanistan to tide over the ongoing humanitarian crisis. Pakistan, a close ally of China, has on its part has sent supplies such as cooking oil and medicines to the Afghan authorities. Pakistan having strong historical ties with the Taliban will possibly play a crucial role in furthering Chinese ambitions..

The immediate economic fallout of the crisis for Iran is its reduced access to hard currency from Afghanistan. After the imposition of US sanctions, Afghanistan had been an important source of dollars for Iran. Reports suggest that hard currency worth $5million was being transferred to Iran daily before the Taliban takeover. Now the US has put a freeze on nearly $9.5 billion in assets belonging to Afghan Central Bank and stopped shipment of cash to the country. The shortage of hard currency is likely to affect the exchange rates in Iran subsequently building up inflationary pressure. Over the years, Afghanistan had emerged as a major destination for Iran’s non-oil exports amounting to $2billion a year. A prolonged crisis would curb demand in Afghanistan including that of Iranian goods with a likely reduction in the trade volume between the two countries. In effect, Iran would find itself increasingly isolated from foreign governments and international financial flows.

India had been the wariest regional spectator watching its $3 billion investment in Afghanistan go up in smoke. Long-standing hostility with Pakistan has prevented land-based Indian trade with Afghanistan and the Central Asian Republic’s (CAR’s). Push by India and other stakeholders for setting a common agenda for alternate connectivity appears susceptible at the moment. India has been working with Iran to develop Chabahar port in the Arabian sea and transport goods shipped from India to Afghanistan and Central Asia through the proposed Chabahar-Zahedan-Mashhad railway line. India is also working with Russia on the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200 km long multi-mode network of ship, rail and road routes for freight movement, whereby Indian goods are received at Iranian ports of Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, moves northward via rail and road through Iran and Azerbaijan and meets the Trans-Siberian rail network that will allow access to the European markets. According to the latest reports, the Taliban declined to join talks with India, Iran and Uzbekistan on Chabahar port and North-South Transport Corridor, which has cast shadow on the Indian interests in the region. India’s trade with Afghanistan had steadily increased to reach the US $1.5 billion in 2019–2020. An unfriendly administration and demand constraints may slow down the trade between the two countries.

With the US withdrawal, the CARs would find their strategic and economic autonomy curtailed and more drawn into the regional power struggle between China and Russia. While China has many infrastructure projects in Central Asia to its credit, Russia is trying to woo Central Asian countries into the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), though so far it was able to rope in only Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. CARs would need better connectivity through Afghanistan and Iran to diversify their trade relations with Indo-Pacific nations and to have better leverage to bargain with Russia and China. Uzbekistan, the most fervent of the CARs to demand increased connectivity with South Asia, expressed its interest in joining the Chabahar project in 2020, which was duly welcomed by India. The new developments in Afghanistan would force these countries to remodel their strategies to suit the changed geopolitical realities.

The fact that Iran is getting closer to China by signing a 25-Year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership cooperation agreement in 2020 adds yet another dimension to the whole picture. India’s hesitancy to recognize or engage with the Taliban makes it unpredictable what the future holds for India-Afghan relations.

The hasty US exit has caused rapid reorientation in the geopolitical and geo-economic status-quo of the region. Most countries were unprepared to handle the swiftness of the Taliban takeover and were scrambling for options to deal with the chaos. The lone exception was China which held talks with the Taliban as early as July, 28 weeks before the fall of Kabul, to discuss the reconstruction of the war-torn country. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also took a high-profile tour to Central Asia in mid-July which extensively discussed the emerging situation in Afghanistan with Central Asian leaders. Since the West has passed the buck, it’s up to the regional players to restore the economic stability in Afghanistan and ensure safe transit routes through the country. Any instability in Afghanistan is likely to have harrowing repercussions in the neighbourhood, as well.

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Economy

Turkish Economy as the Reset Button of Turkish Politics

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Democracy has a robust relationship with economic growth.  Barrington Moore can be seen as one of the leading scholars focusing on the relationship between political development and economic structure with his book titled “Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy” first published in 1966. According to Moore, there are three routes from agrarianism to the modern industrial world. In the capitalist democratic route, exemplified by England, France, and the United States, the peasantry was politically impotent or had been eradicated all together, and a strong bourgeoisie was present, and the aristocracy allied itself with the bourgeoisie or failed to oppose democratizing steps. In Moore’s book, you can find out why some countries have developed as democracies and others as dictatorships.

It can be argued that economic development facilitates democratization. Following this argument, this article is an attempt to address the Turkish case with the most recent discussions going on in the country. One of the most powerful instruments used by the political opposition today is the rhetoric of “economic crisis” that has also been supported by public opinion polls and data. For instance, the leader of İYİ Party Meral Akşener has organized lots of visits to different regions of Turkey and has been posting videos on her social media account showing the complaints mostly centering around unemployment and high inflation. According to Akşener, “Turkey’s economic woes – with inflation above 15%, high unemployment and a gaping current account deficit – left no alternative to high rates.”

Another political opposition leader, Ahmet Davutoğlu raised voice of criticism via his social media account, saying “As if monthly prices hikes on natural gas were not enough, they have introduced 15% increase on electricity costs. It is as if the government vowed to do what it can to take whatever the citizens have.”

A recent poll reveals that about 65 percent think the economic crisis and unemployment problem are Turkey’s most urgent problems. Literature on the relationship between democracy and economic well-being shows that a democratic regime becomes more fragile in countries where per capita income stagnates or declines. It is known that democracies are more powerful among the economically developed countries.

The International Center for Peace and Development summarizes the social origins of democracy in global scale as the following:

“Over the past two centuries, the rise of constitutional forms of government has been closely associated with peace, social stability and rapid socio-economic development. Democratic countries have been more successful in living peacefully with their neighbors, educating their citizens, liberating human energy and initiative for constructive purposes in society, economic growth and wealth generation.”

Turkey’s economic problems have been on the agenda for a long time. Unlike what has been claimed by the Minister of Interior Affairs Süleyman Soylu a few months ago, Turkish economy has not reached to the level which would make United States and Germany to become jealous of Turkey. Soylu had said, “You will see, as of July, our economy will take such a leap and growth in July that Germany, France, England, Italy and especially the USA, which meddles in everything, will crack and explode.”

To make a long story short, it can be said that the coronavirus pandemic has exerted a major pressure on the already fragile economy of Turkey and this leads to further frustration among the Turkish electorate. The next elections will not only determine who will shape the economic structure but will also show to what level Turkish citizens have become unhappy about the ongoing “democratic politics.” In other words, it can be said that, Turkish economy can be seen as the reset button of Turkish politics for the upcoming elections.

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Economy

Finding Fulcrum to Move the World Economics

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Domenico Fetti / Wikimedia Commons

Where hidden is the fulcrum to bring about new global-age thinking and escape current mysterious economic models that primarily support super elitism, super-richness, super tax-free heavens and super crypto nirvanas; global populace only drifts today as disconnected wanderers at the bottom carrying flags of ‘hate-media’ only creating tribal herds slowly pushed towards populism. Suppose, if we accept the current indices already labeled as success as the best of show of hands, the game is already lost where winners already left the table. Finding a new fulcrum to move the world economies on a better trajectory where human productivity measured for grassroots prosperity is a critically important but a deeply silent global challenge. Here are some bold suggestions

ONE- Global Measurement: World connectivity is invisible, grossly misunderstood, miscalculated and underestimated of its hidden powers; spreading silently like an invisible net, a “new math” becomes the possible fulcrum for the new business world economy; behold the ocean of emerging global talents from new economies, mobilizing new levels of productivity, performance and forcing global shifts of economic powers. Observe the future of borderless skills, boundary less commerce and trans-global public opinion, triangulation of such will simply crush old thinking.

Archimedes yelled, “…give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world…”

After all, half of the world during the last decade, missed the entrepreneurial mindset, understoodonly as underdog players of the economy, the founders, job-creators and risk-taker entrepreneurs of small medium businesses of the world, pushed aside while kneeling to big business staged as institutionalized ritual. Although big businesses are always very big, nevertheless, small businesses and now globally accepted, as many times larger. Study deeply, why suddenly now the small medium business economy, during the last budgetary cycles across the world, has now become the lone solution to save dwindling economies. Big business as usual will take care of itself, but national economies already on brink left alone now need small business bases and hard-core raw entrepreneurialism as post-pandemic recovery agendas.

TWO – Ground Realities:  National leadership is now economic leadership, understanding, creating and managing, super-hyper-digital-platform-economies a new political art and mobilization of small midsize business a new science: The prerequisites to understand the “new math” is the study of “population-rich-nations and knowledge rich nations” on Google and figure out how and why can a national economy apply such new math. 

Today a USD $1000 investment in technology buys digital solutions, which were million dollars, a decade ago.Today,a $1000 investment buys on global-age upskilling on export expansion that were million dollars a decade ago.  Today, a $1000 investment on virtual-events buys what took a year and cost a million dollars a decade ago. Today, any micro-small-medium-enterprise capable of remote working models can save 80% of office and bureaucratic costs and suddenly operate like a mini-multi-national with little or no additional costs.

Apply this math to population rich nations and their current creation of some 500 million new entrepreneurial businesses across Asia will bring chills across the world to the thousands of government departments, chambers of commerce and trade associations as they compare their own progress. Now relate this to the economic positioning of ‘knowledge rich nations’ and explore how they not only crushed their own SME bases, destroyed the middle class but also their expensive business education system only produced armies of resumes promoting job-seekers but not the mighty job-creators. Study why entrepreneurialism is neither academic-born nor academic centric, it is after all most successful legendary founders that created earth shattering organizations were only dropouts.  Now shaking all these ingredients well in the economic test tube wait and let all this ferment to see what really happens.

Now picking up any nation, selecting any region and any high potential vertical market; searching any meaningful economic development agenda and status of special skills required to serve such challenges, paint new challenges. Interconnect the dots on skills, limits on national/global exposure and required expertise on vertical sectors, digitization and global-age market reach. Measuring the time and cost to bring them at par, measuring the opportunity loss over decades for any neglect. Combining all to squeeze out a positive transformative dialogue and assemble all vested parties under one umbrella.

Not to be confused with academic courses on fixing Paper-Mache economies and broken paper work trails, chambers primarily focused on conflict resolutions, compliance regulations, and trade groups on policy matters.  Mobilization of small medium business economy is a tactical battlefield of advancements of an enterprise, as meritocracy is the nightmarish challenges for over 100 plus nations where majority high potential sectors are at standstill on such affairs. Surprisingly, such advancements are mostly not new funding hungry but mobilization starved. Economic leadership teams of today, unless skilled on intertwining super-hyper-digital-platform-economic agendas with local midsize businesses and creating innovative excellence to stand up to global competitiveness becomes only a burden to growth.

The magnifying glass of mind will find the fulcrum: High potential vertical sectors and special regions are primarily wide-open lands full of resources and full of talented peoples; mobilization of such combinations offering extraordinary power play, now catapulted due to technologies. However, to enter such arenas calls for regimented exploring of the limits of digitization, as Digital-Divides are Mental Divides, only deeper understanding and skills on how to boost entrepreneurialism and attract hidden talents of local citizenry will add power. Of course, knowing in advance, what has already failed so many times before will only avoid using a rubber hose as a lever, again.  

The new world economic order: There is no such thing as big and small as it is only strong and weak, there is no such thing as rich and poor it is only smart and stupid. There is no such thing as past and future is only what is in front now and what is there to act but if and or when. How do you translate this in a post pandemic recovery mode? Observe how strong, smart moving now are advancing and leaving weak, stupid dreaming of if and when in the dust behind.

The conclusion: At the risk of never getting a Nobel Prize on Economics, here is this stark claim; any economy not driven solely based on measuring “real value creation” but primarily based on “real value manipulation” is nothing but a public fraud. This mathematically proven, possibly a new Fulcrum to move the world economy, in need of truth

The rest is easy  

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