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Russia and the alternative to the global world order

Dimitris Giannakopoulos

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The 10 most important things you need to know on Caspian Sea Region for Monday, May 25

1Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov is in Moscow where he will hold talks with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. The Russian Foreign Ministry said the two will discuss the conflict in the disputed Azerbaijani region of Nagorno-Karabakh and ways to strengthen bilateral ties when they meet on May 25. Strategic partnership between Russia and Azerbaijan is important both in terms of the bilateral cooperation and stability in the South Caucasus, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said. The economic relations between the two countries are developing, the trade turnover has reached its historic high and increased by 12 percent compared to 2014. Many Russian regions have relations with Azerbaijan, said Lavrov adding that preparations for the sixth Russian-Azerbaijani forum in Ekaterinburg are underway.

2Indonesia could soon be purchasing crude oil form Iran and tapping into the Middle Eastern nation’s oil fields. “The government is considering opportunities to buy Iranian crude directly,” said Dadan Kusdiana, spokesman for the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. The United States government and the European Union have blocked the import, purchase and transport of Iranian crude.But Indonesia could soon join other countries in Asia, such as China, India and Japan, and start buying oil from Iran. (Jakarta Globe)

3Azerbaijan and Russia have reached an agreement to hold a joint military exercise in Caspian Sea. Nearly ten surface ships and vessels will take part in the exercise. During the consultations, the representatives of the military delegations agreed to hold an exercise on joint actions to protect marine economic objects in the Caspian Sea in the central part of the sea in September of 2015.

4In 2015 Kazakhstan may increase its grain exports to Iran five times thanks to the Uzen-Bereket-Gorgan railway launched in December 2014, President Nursultan Nazarbayev said when speaking at the annual Astana Economic Forum. The 900-km-long railway link constructed through concerted efforts of the nations involved and launched early December 2014 runs from the Kazakhstan’s steppe across Turkmen Karakumy desert to the mountainous Gulistan province in the North of Iran. The project was bolstered by the Asian Development Bank and the Islamic Development Bank.

5Wary of Russia, Europe now tiptoes when it comes to expansion: “In the final declaration agreed on Friday, E.U. leaders recognized the “aspirations and European choice” of their neighbors but offered nothing more. Former Soviet countries that had entertained hopes of joining the European Union as full partners now feel they are being shut out. The newfound caution hands the Kremlin a victory as pressure eases slightly in the Ukrainian crisis. European advocates of a more open-armed approach toward former Soviet nations warn that concessions will only encourage Russia to be more aggressive with its neighbors in the future.” Writes Michael Birnbaum for The Washington Post.

6Invest in Kazakhstan 2015 the official publication of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan – is a definitive guide to foreign direct investment, looking at the wide range of opportunities across all major industrial and financial sectors, and how they can be harnessed to efficiently maximize long-term returns. The publication will provide an in-depth view of Kazakhstan’s business environment, with an extended section on Kazakhstan’s key oil and gas industry, as well as a focus on the areas of mining and minerals, construction, power and renewable energy, transport and infrastructure, agriculture, ICT, banking and finance, healthcare, tourism, and education.

7Azerbaijan became the leader of the International Fund for Cooperation and Partnership of the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea (BSCSIF). Chingiz Abdullayev became the new president of the Fund. The change of the leadership of the structure took place on May 23 in Baku during the 14th session of the General Assembly and the Board of Directors of the BSCSIF. The BSCSIF is an international non-governmental non-profit organization, established on March 4, 2009 by the initiative of President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Romanian President Traian Basescu.

8Turkmenistan has unveiled a gold-leafed statue of the president in a gesture intended to burnish the leader’s burgeoning cult of personality. The 21-meter monument presented to the public Monday consists of a statue of President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov atop a horse mounted on a towering pile of marble. Berdymukhamedov, nicknamed Arkadag (the Protector), won the presidential election in 2012 with a landslide 97 percent in a vote criticized by election monitoring groups.

9“The Russian administration will have an opportunity to present the country as a leader of the non-western world. Presidency of the BRICS will allow Moscow to position itself as a participant of an association that offers an alternative to the global world order. In the company of the largest economy in the world (at least that is how the IMF estimates China’s GDP in relation to its purchasing power parity) and the dynamic leaders of South Asia, Latin America and Africa, Moscow can confidently say that it does not intend to return to the G8, even if it is suddenly invited back” writes Alexander Gabuev for the Russia Beyond the Headlines

10Azerbaijan awaits unambiguous and firm actions by the European Union to ensure that the resolutions of the UN Security Council on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are strictly complied with and implemented, Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said in its statement on the final declaration of Riga summit.“However, there are issues that cannot be a subject to compromise” he added.

Journalist, specialized in Middle East, Russia & FSU, Terrorism and Security issues. Founder and Editor-in-chief of the Modern Diplomacy magazine. follow @DGiannakopoulos

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Greater Caspian News

The COVID-19 Shock to Kazakhstan’s Economy Largest in Two Decades

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For the first time since the late 1990s Kazakhstan’s economy is expected to contract by projected 3 percent in 2020 with a moderate recovery by 2.5 percent in 2021, according to the World Bank’s latest Kazakhstan Economic Update (Summer 2020) – Navigating the Crisis report.

Although Kazakhstan’s GDP showed mild growth at 2.3 percent in the first quarter, economic activities weakened in the following months as commodity prices dropped, trade declined, and COVID-19 preventive measures slowed economic activity. Consumer demand showed moderate growth at  at 1.2 percent,  reflecting growing concerns over COVID-19 and the restriction measures. Investment is expected to ease to 1.0 percent annually, supported mostly by the on-going foreign direct investments into the oil and gas industry and residential construction. Supply disruptions and currency depreciation pushed up inflation to above the upper bound of the National Bank target range.

“The authorities acted early to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, and the accumulated fiscal buffers allow the government to introduce a relief package to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 on the economy,” said Sjamsu Rahardja, Senior Country Economist, World Bank in Kazakhstan. “Weak demand and oil prices, as well as the protacted pandemic expose significant risks to the economic outlook. Authorities may want to consider using the available resources to provide relief to the poor and vulnerable, protect productive assets, and introduce reforms to sustain economic recovery.”

A prolonged crisis is likely to increase poverty and can increase inequality in Kazakhstan. Preliminary estimates suggest that poverty rate may rise in 2020 from a projected 8.3 to 12.7 percent – equating to more than 800 thousand additional people living in poverty. The shock to the labor market in Kazakhstan due to both the pandemic and the mitigation measures, is expected to have severe implications for jobs, particularly in sectors that employ low-skilled workers.

The report also argues that COVID-19 has a negative impact on human capital development in Kazakhstan. Unequal access to quality education, especially during lockdown, can negatively impact human capital development for the poor. School closures could result in learning loss of more than one-third of a school year and the impact could mean a decline in the Program for International Student Assessement (PISA) points. As most students in the country currently perform around the threshold for functional literacy and assuming some will lose more than others, the estimates suggest that the percentage of students performing below functional literacy will increase by 3 percentage points (from 64 to 67 percent).

“The impact of COVID-19 on education and learning losses will have a decades-long impact on the economy by an estimated 2.9 percent, amounting to an overall economic loss of up to $1.9 billion every year”, says Jean-Francois Marteau, World Bank Country Manager for Kazakhstan.  “A focus on improving access to quality education, including distance learning, would be important to prevent a decline in the quality of human capital, especially among Kazakhstan’s low-income population.”

The report concludes that under the risk of a prolonged slump in the global oil market, Kazakhstan’s pathway for a resilient recovery may focus on strengthening the effectiveness of public administration and services, including the use of e-platforms to deliver key public services, better tax administration, and a mechanism to review and redeploy fiscal resources toward better state programs. A renewed emphasis on reforms in the logistics, digital telecommunications, and financial sectors could help the overall private sector explore new opportunities.

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China-Eurasia Council condemns aggression of Azerbaijan

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China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research strongly condemns Azerbaijani aggression which Baku started on July 12, 2020.  Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense is a threat for the entire World as it is speaking about its aims to strike Metsamor Nuclear Plant, which is located in Armenia. Baku must understand that this is a crime against humanity, and it is equal to nuclear strike.The destruction of Metsamor Nuclear plant will be a disaster not only for Armenia, but also for Iran, Georgia and Azerbaijan, it will harm World’s environment and stand a real problem for several generations of the World. It is worth mentioning, that this time Baku attacked the Northern borders of Armenia, which are sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia according to International law. Azerbaijan violated the principle of territorial integrity of a sovereign state, which is one of the important pillars of International law.

China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research condemns Azerbaijan for using force against civilian population of Armenia and calls for peaceful negotiations. Baku must show solidarity and join global ceasefire initiated by the UN secretary general Antonio Guterres and must not try to escalate the situation on the border to deflect public attention from the situation concerning the outbreak of Covid-19 in Azerbaijan. We call official Baku to take care of Azerbaijani people in the hard times of Coronavirus and not send its soldiers to real death.  Being multinational Council, for us It’s terrible to hear about lossfrom both sides and we express our sincere condolences. Hopefully peace will come to South Caucasus, which is an important crossroad in Eurasian mainland and it can stand a very important link for Belt and Road Initiative, if all problems solved in a peaceful way.

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Condemnation Of Armenian Aggression By Friends Of Azerbaijan (FoA)

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Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) strongly condemns the coward act of Armenians aggression in the Tovuz district of Azerbaijan that is a sheer violation of international borders and law. The act is an attempt of Armenia to drive global attention from the peaceful dialogue and negotiation process on Nagorno Karabakh.

In an online meeting of the delegates of the Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA), a joint declaration of condemnation has been issued by the honorable members of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA). 

According to this declaration, Armenian aggression can jeopardize the whole South Caucasus region. The incident on July 12, 2020, is being considered as a direct attack on Azerbaijan and the repercussions of this incident can result in massive catastrophe in the entire region.


The delegates of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) stressed the global powers to come forward and take serious action on Armenian intervention by violating the international border of Azerbaijan. The act of Armenia is an open challenge to the sovereignty of Azerbaijan.

Malik Ayub Sumbal founder of Friends of Azerbaijan (FoA) termed that Armenia is losing its legal and moral position on Nagorno Karabakh and there is mounting pressure on Armenia by the international community for the peaceful solution of Nagorno Karabakh according to the UN Resolutions. At this time to get rid of such kind of diplomatic moves, Armenia has launched another major front in Tovuz. 

When the whole world is busy against the Covid19 Armenian Prime Minister has chosen a very dangerous path that can take the whole region into war and bloodshed. 

Friends of Azerbijan (FoA) is firmly standing with shoulder by shoulder to the people of Azerbaijan and martyr’s families at this hour.

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