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An aging planet, an old Europe, new problems

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The earth: a rapidly aging population with an average age of slightly over 29 years of age; an unevenly aging planet with Japan as the oldest society with an average age of 45 and 80% of the older people living in developed countries.; a planet with 7% of its population being over 65 years of age; a tripling of that population over the last 50 years and another tripling in the coming 50 years to reach 21%, or 2 billion persons.

The earth: a planet with a larger share of over 60s than of children.

Europe has the highest proportion of older people, with 22% of the population older than 60 and scheduled to reach 34% by 2050, with Southern Europe even reaching 38%. This means that that the segment of the population over 65 is larger than the segment under 15.

The over-80-years-old segment is also growing at a steadily fast pace. By 2100 Europe will have a larger percentage of its population over 80 than the share of the population under 20. Those over 80 years old – expected to grow from 14% of the world’s population today to 19% (392 million persons) in 2050. That segment of the population is essentially feminine.

The economy of aging

If a large proportion – 31% – of the over-60 segment works, only 8% have a paid occupation in the developed countries, and those are essentially men. Coupled with a low birth rate, a number of economic challenges are raised.

The increase in life expectancy coupled with the decrease in fertility leads to a rise in old age dependency ratios with a resulting negative effect on per capita income growth. The global dependency ratio is expected to rise sharply after 2020, leading to increased poverty for the retired segment as well as a reduction in fiscal income.

There are two basic assumptions behind this reasoning:

          As the population declines, there is a decrease in demand for goods and services and therefore a reduction in economic growth and employment

          Governments will be unable to pay pensions and health care for an increasingly large share of the population and improve infrastructure.

Projections to 2030 for the old-age dependency ratio in at least two countries – Italy and Sweden – are as high as two persons of working supporting one person over 65.

An aging society puts pressure on public spending due to increases in the payment of pensions, in health spending and in social care costs.

Health in an aging society

Health costs of people over 65 are three times those of people between 20 and 64 and continue to grow over the lifetime of a person. The UN estimates that the worldwide cost of dementia is over 600 billion dollars a year.

The four main diseases affecting older populations are depression, fractures and concussions due to falls, memory loss and urinary incontinence. In general, women suffer more from these disabilities than men.

Only a small minority of older people obtain professional end-of-life care. Society relies mostly on unpaid relatives, generally women, and the period lasts an average of 5 years. Those requiring care are over 80 years of age and this segment of the population is expected to grow significantly over the coming years. Thus more caregivers will be required, whether professional or family members.

The average care giver is a 49-year-old woman who works outside the home and spends about 20 hours a week providing unpaid care for her mother. This reduces the need and therefore the cost, of nursing homes and prevents an increase in immigration.

Several European countries have made the choice of allowing older people to be maintained at home. It implies that several million persons need an adaptation of their housing, an extremely expensive exercise. Nevertheless, in Denmark, 12% of the housing has already been adapted to the needs of the aging population.

Pensions

With the aging of the population there is a proportional rise in pension payments and of their share of GDP. There is a very large gap between the income people expect at retirement and their savings – the figure in Europe for this gap stands at nearly 2 trillion euros per year. This means that 40% of the people that are to retire may have to work longer.

The baby boomers were able to generate considerable savings towards the latter part of their career. However, as that generation retires, savings will diminish substantially and that will affect the pensions in the coming years. Spending from that age group will therefore diminish and it cannot be counted on to generate an economy rebound.

Today, the market catering to baby boomers is a major growth market.

As pensions are reduced, retirees will have to live on their savings, erasing any hope of an inheritance for their children. To avoid a repeat of this situation, the succeeding generations may decrease their spending and increase their savings.

The urban environment

The urban environment needs to be adapted to an aging society – more frequent bus stops, more benches, a larger number of stores. This will result in a higher infrastructure cost per capita as the population shrinks.

Possible solutions

With the reduction in the offer of labor, economic growth will stall.

Possible solutions to the problems faced by aging societies include postponing the retirement age, increasing productivity through investments in training and increasing immigration flows.

Working beyond retirement age has positive effects on health, particularly if the job is a low-stress one. This is particularly true if continuing to work is a deliberate choice. Some, if not all, the seniors, would have to be retrained to use new technologies to maintain productivity and increase employability.

Studies have shown that allowing seniors to engage in a productive activity increases the GDP by 10%.

Alternative solutions include higher contributions during the working life, a reduction in health care expenditures and services or a more substantial immigration. Germany and Sweden have implemented a system whereby each person chooses the age at which he or she retires, and the pensions are adjusted accordingly.

The voting power of the seniors, who will represent an increased share of the electorate, will force governments to take difficult decisions in resource allocation – should the weighing be towards taking care of the elderly or of the shrinking younger population to increase their productivity through training.

Driven by the electorate, governments might allow easier immigration for younger people, particularly with health care qualifications to take care of the aging population. To maintain the European population steady at present levels, the immigration flow would have to be of the order of 1.5 million per year. The flow of immigrants probably coming from the Muslim world, cultural conflicts would be important.

Alternatively, entrepreneurs might draw pensioners to developing countries where pensions go a longer way than in their home countries.

An aging society is less likely to see innovative entrepreneurship and therefore will have a reduced economic growth. Attracting investments from countries that have large amounts of funds to invest abroad, such as China, could be a solution.

Major decisions lie ahead for governments that face problems that they have not faced before.

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Vienna Process: Minilateralism for the future of Europe and its strategic neighbourhood

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On the historic date of March 08th – International Women’s Day, a large number of international affairs specialists gathered for the second consecutive summit in Vienna, Austria. This leg of the Vienna Process titled: “Europe – Future – Neighbourhood at 75: Disruptions Recalibration Continuity”. The conference, jointly organized by the Modern Diplomacy, IFIMES and their partners, with the support of the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna, was aimed at discussing the future of Europe and its neighbourhood in the wake of its old and new challenges.[1]

Along with the two acting State Presidents, the event was endorsed by the keynote of the EU Commissioner for European Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Excellency Olivér Várhelyi. The first, of the three-panel conference, was brilliantly conducted by the OSCE Sec-General (2011-2017), current IFIMES Euro-Med Director, Amb. Lamberto Zannier. Among his speakers was a former Deputy Director of the OSCE Conflict Prevention Center Ms. Monika Wohlfeld. Discussing pan-European and regional issues of the southern Europe, this is what Dr.Wohlfeld outlined in her intervention:

The list of global and regional challenges that affect the Euro-Med region is too long to discuss here in depth. Clearly, the region experiences soft and hard security challenges and conflicts over ‘territorial claims, the proliferation of weapons, terrorist activities, illegal migration, ethnic tensions, human rights abuses, climate change, natural resources disputes, especially concerning energy and water, and environmental degradation’.[2] The Covid-19 pandemic lay bare and enhanced many of these challenges, in social, political and economic as well as security realms. The Euro-Med region is also not well equipped to tackle these problems and difficulties in a cooperative and coordinated manner, despite the existence of some common organizations, institutions and agendas.

So how to foster dialogue and a cooperative approach on addressing common challenges in the region? I will focus largely on security in a broad sense and the notion of cooperative security.

The OSCE (or rather its more unstructured predecessor, the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe) has in the recent decades been presented as a possible example for co-operative security arrangements in the Mediterranean region. The idea of a Conference on Security and Co-operation in the Mediterranean (CSCM) did not get a lot of traction in the region so far. It has been argued that such a project must succeed and not precede cooperative regional dynamics it seeks and that the conflictual patterns of relations, which exist across the Mediterranean, therefore do not lend themselves to cooperative security frameworks. The absence of a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace would preclude parties in the region from applying cooperative security methods that have proved effective in the framework of the CSCE/OSCE.

An additional difficulty is that this possible example for cooperative security arrangements focuses largely on the interaction of states while it is increasingly clear that civil society and its organizations may have a necessary and constructive role to play in this respect.

Nevertheless, the notion of cooperative security framework(s) has been supported by many analysts, not only from the northern shore, but from also southern shore of the Mediterranean. Abdennour Benantar, in his discussion of possible security architectures for the Mediterranean region, analyses the security situation in the region and asks whether the concept of cooperative security, as developed in the European context, could be transposed or applied in the Mediterranean.[3]Benantar argues in favour of creating a regime of security cooperation in the Mediterranean, while taking into account the sub-regional diversity of the Mediterranean region.

One key conclusion of the discussion of CSCM is that not extending existing European models, or exporting models of cooperative security to the Mediterranean region, but rather using such models as sources of inspiration and support to subregional or regional cooperative security efforts is likely to be more successful[4] in establishing cooperative security principles and frameworks in the Mediterranean.

Another key finding is that with multilateralism under pressure globally and regionally, new concepts deserve attention. One such concept is minilateralism or selective and flexible cooperation, currently being developed in the context of the problems faced by multilateralism globally. As Stewart Patrick explains, ‘states increasingly participate in a bewildering array of flexible, ad hoc frameworks whose membership varies based on situational interests, shared values, or relevant capabilities. These institutions are often ‘minilateral’ rather than universal; voluntary rather than legally binding; disaggregated rather than comprehensive; trans-governmental rather than just intergovernmental; regional rather than global; multi-level and multistakeholder rather than state-centric; and ‘bottom-up’ rather than ‘top down’.[5] Thus, while multilateralism is under pressure, there are possible ways of bottom-up, smaller in terms of numbers of states involved and flexible approaches.

A Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung strategic foresight exercise for the MENA region in 2030 suggests there are opportunities for common approaches and co-operation on long-term challenges that affect all states of the region. Thus, there are key risks and opportunities that might enhance cooperation. ‘With this as a starting point, through building single-issue institutions and multilateral trust, other chapters for cooperation might open up.’[6]

This observation could benefit from being placed in the perspective of the concept of minilateralism, presented above. With multiple, flexible layers of such minilateral cooperation, cooperative security approaches can be introduced into various regional formats in the Mediterranean. They deserve the political and financial support of all state or non-state actors that engage on behalf of multilateralism and cooperative security.

Before closing, few words about the Mediterranean Academy of Diplomatic Studies, which  is a regional institution, funded by the governments of Malta, Switzerland and Germany. It trains diplomats and more recently also civil society activists from the Euro-Med region who work and live together for the duration of the Master’s degree, accredited by the University of Malta. The Academy thus functions as a regional confidence-building measure, per se

In 2009, when this author joined the Academy, a course on security studies has been developed, which emphasizes non-zero sum game approaches, cooperative security and conflict prevention and conflict resolution aspects. Twelve cohorts of students later, using their written assessments of the impact of the course as well as conversations with alumni (many of whom are reaching top jobs in their countries), it changed the way they view security issues and conceptualize solutions to common security challenges.

It could be giving hopes. There is increased emphasis on youth and confidence building in the Euro-Med region, and strong interest and support from Northern African countries in the academic training the Academy provides. However, the pandemic and the economic situation in the region do not bode well for prospects of projects such as the Academy. One very recent positive development I can share though is that the German Federal Ministry for Foreign Affairs has renewed its funding for the German Chair for Peace Studies and Conflict Prevention at the Academy for the next two years.

This is the author’s main take on the situation: It will take support, time and patience to advance minilateralism and also multilateralism as a way of addressing common challenges in the Euro-Med region. We need all hands on deck for this, especially during the difficult moments the region experiences currently.


[1]This highly anticipated conference gathered over twenty high ranking speakers from three continents, and the viewers from Australia to Canada and from Chile to Far East. The day was filled by three panels focusing on the rethinking and revisiting Europe and its three equally important neighbourhoods: Euro-Med, Eastern and trans-Atlantic (or as the Romano Prodi’s EU Commission coined it back in 2000s – “from Morocco to Russia – everything but the institutions”); the socio-political and economic greening; as well as the legacy of WWII, Nuremberg Trials and Code, the European Human Rights Charter and their relevance in the 21st century.

[2] Stephen Calleya, Security Challenges in the Euro-Med area in the 21st Century. Routledge: London, 2013, p. 9-10.

[3]Abdennour Benantar, Quelle architecture de sécurité pour la Méditerranée ?.Critique internationale2015/4 (69), https://www.cairn.info/revue-critique-internationale-2015-4-page-133.htm

[4]IstitutoAffariInternazionali, ‘Towards “Helsinki +40”: The OSCE, the Global Mediterranean, and the Future of Cooperative Security’, Documenti IAI 14 08 – October 2014.  https://www.new-med.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/iai14081.pdf

[5] Stewart M. Patrick, Making Sense of ‘Minilaterialism’: The Pros and Cons of Flexible Co-operation’, CFR Blog, 5 January 2016. https://www.cfr.org/blog/making-sense-minilateralism-pros-and-cons-flexible-cooperation

[6] Mediterranean Advisory Group, MENA 2030: A Strategic Foresight Exercise. KAS Med Dialogue Series, June 2019, p. 11. https://www.kas.de/documents/282499/282548/MAG+MENA+2030+A+Strategic+Foresight+Exercise.pdf/1ebaaba2-7457-9c67-e7a4-2121326d4c51?version=1.0&t=1562234211698

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President of Malta at the Vienna Process: No Europe without its Neighborhood

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On the historic date of March 08th – International Women’s Day, a large number of international affairs specialists gathered for the second consecutive summit in Vienna, Austria.[1]Along with the two acting European State Presidents, the event was endorsed by the keynote of the EU Commissioner for European Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Excellency OlivérVárhelyi. Still, one of the most anticipated talks was that of the President of the Republic of Malta, Dr. George Vella.

In his highly absorbing keynote, Excellency President focused on the Euro-Mediterranean and its promising prospects:

President Vella covered a wide array of issues concerning the Mediterranean region, including prospects for and improvement of existing channels of dialogue and cooperation, the ever-changing dynamics of the region, an assessment of the developments in the Western, Central and Eastern parts of the region, and the roles of the European Union (EU) and the United Nations (UN) in addressing the Mediterranean’s challenges. This text is a brief recap highlighting the key points of the Maltese President’s intervention at the Vienna Process March’ event.

Excellency President started his keynote by calling for stronger and more coherent Mediterranean dialogue channels in order to effectively solve or at the very least address the region’s challenges. He pointed out that, “there is a high level of institutionalization at parliamentary levels. There are in fact no less than 23 international parliamentary institutions. Many countries are members of more than one organization with inevitable overlapping and repetition; for example, Greece is in 13 organizations, Andorra in 2 and Malta in 7. Most organizations are purely deliberative, however there is little cooperation, competitionor division of labor; this hinders interregional cooperation. I mention the 5+5 Western MediterraneanForum, the Union for the Mediterranean, the Med7. These are examples in which Malta is very actively involved. I find it quite ironic that a strong regional cooperation organizationwith proven credentials like the OSCE does not have yet a tangible Mediterranean dialogue.”

His excellency, then, proceeded to address the dynamics of the Mediterranean region, stating that “in the old days, the Mediterranean was seen as a playground for the superpower bickering and escalation. Nowadays it is actors from the region itself that flex their muscles often at the expense of the stability of others. When we speak of the Mediterranean, we often, perhaps unknowingly, commit the mistake of projecting this as a homogenous, uniform region; this is not the case. One can attribute the lack of success, if not downright failure, of certain policies because we forget about the regional dynamics and continuously changing realities of this region.” Therefore, he calls for a focused assessment of developments in the region that addresses the region from Western, Central and Eastern perspectives in order to grasp the particularities of the experiences of each and to escape the one-size-fits-all approach to assessing the region’s developments.

President George Vella then urged us to ask ourselves a very pressing questions, “what the EU, which is ideally placed to positively influence developments, is actually doing?” He stated that he welcomes “the launch of a new agenda for the Mediterranean which clearly states that a strengthened Mediterranean partnership remains a strategic imperative for the EU.” He further highlights the importance of addressing the gap between theory and practice. Here, he refers to the New Pact on Migration and Asylum in the EU; Excellency explained that what truly matters is not what is written in agreements, but rather what is implemented, pointing out that “questions still very much remain on the fair and equitable implementation of its [the New Pact’s] provisions.”

Mr. President also addressed the dire issue of the lack of solidarity in the region. He said: “While the responsibilities of the states of first entry are clear and stringent, solidarity through relocation remains uncertain in the rest of the pact.It appears, indeed, that relocation, which one can consider as the most effective tool of solidarity, remains entirely voluntary.

As solidarity in the region would lead to more stability, President Vella draws attention to the primary role that youth ought to play in bringing stability to the Mediterranean. He proposed “a system of circular migration and organized mobility for the young Mediterranean generations; a sort of a Mediterranean Erasmus+, giving participants exposure to European realities which they would eventually take back home with them to use in boosting their economies.” This is not the first time his excellency raises this suggestion; in fact, he has done so previously on multiple occasions including in the Young Mediterranean Voices Forum.

President Vella also tackled the dimension of hard security, stating that “we need to do much more to eradicate the flow and the sales of armaments and ammunition. Apart from the obvious security dimension, we also need to consider how the exportation and supply of weapons to countries in the Mediterranean is resulting in political competing and conflicting spheres of influence. In times when multilateralism is wrongly being put into question, I feel we need to do more to increase its pertinence and relevance in global affairs.”

He seemed to very much welcome UN support, presence and visibility in the region; this was evident in his following statement: “There is ample room for the UN to take a more active, hands-on approach to resolving ongoing conflicts. Libya is a case in point, and recent indications that the UN might involve its own personnel are more than welcome. The UN’s message was to keep tensions down and to avoid open conflict, I askwhether the UN, henceforth, could also have a role in effectively bringing stability to the country through a possible physical presence. Greater visibility of the UN on Mediterranean matters has long been on Malta’s agenda.”

Finally, President George Vella closed his highly absorbing keynote by informing the conference participants that Malta is bidding on a non-permanent seat in the United Nation’s Security Council during the term 2023-2024 in order to be a “voice for dialogue, sustainable growth, [and] equality in the Mediterranean and beyond.”

Congratulating to Vienna Process partners on their sustained work in promoting the cross-European dialogue and understanding, and especially to IFIMES for the role played by its Euro-Med branch headed by Ambassador Lamberto Zannier, Malta went even further. This important southern EU member state already expressed its wish to host one of the planned Vienna Process conferences on Europe and its neighborhood in a due time. 

*the above article is based on the informal transcript and conference recordings, which may have nonintentionally caused minor omittances or imprecisions in the reporting. Ms. RolaElkamash also contributed to this text.


[1]This leg of the Vienna Process titled: “Europe – Future – Neighborhood at 75: Disruptions Recalibration Continuity”. The conference, jointly organized by the Modern Diplomacy, IFIMES and their partners, with the support of the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna, was aimed at discussing the future of Europe and its neighbourhood in the wake of its old and new challenges.

This highly anticipated conference gathered over twenty high ranking speakers from three continents, and the viewers from Australia to Canada and from Chile to Far East. The day was filled by three panels focusing on the rethinking and revisiting Europe and its three equally important neighbourhoods: Euro-Med, Eastern and trans-Atlantic (or as the Romano Prodi’s EU Commission coined it back in 2000s – “from Morocco to Russia – everything but the institutions”); the socio-political and economic greening; as well as the legacy of WWII, Nuremberg Trials and Code, the European Human Rights Charter and their relevance in the 21st century.

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French Senator Allizard: Mediterranean – Theatre for future Europe

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On the historic date of March 08th – International Women’s Day, a large number of international affairs specialists gathered for the second consecutive summit in Vienna, Austria. This leg of the Vienna Process titled: “Europe – Future – Neighbourhood at 75: Disruptions Recalibration Continuity”. The conference, jointly organized by the Modern Diplomacy, IFIMES and their partners, with the support of the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna, was aimed at discussing the future of Europe and its neighbourhood in the wake of its old and new challenges.[1]

Along with the two acting State Presidents, the event was endorsed by the keynote of the EU Commissioner for European Neighbourhood and Enlargement, Excellency OlivérVárhelyi. The first, of the three-panel conference, was brilliantly conducted by the OSCE Sec-General (2011-2017), current IFIMES Euro-Med Director, Amb. Lamberto Zannier. Among his speakers, the first to open the floor was French Senator Pascal Allizard, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly Vice President (and its Special rapporteur for Mediterranean issues). Discussing regional issues of the southern Europe, its relations with the black sea and with North of Africa, this is what Senator outlined in his intervention:

As 2021 is the ten-year anniversary of the Arab spring, Senator Pascal highlights that a decade later, the events of the Arab Spring are crucial to the problems of today. Europe should reevaluate the region through European lens. Excellency Alizard criticizes Europe, due to the fact that it tends to take a step back from the region of the North African affected area of the Arab Spring conflict as there is an abundance of issues which are unlikely to be solved with ease. One must still do its duties difficult or not to question the region. Turning a blind eye to the problems there is something that Senator says Europe tends to do to elevate their consciousness.

However, one must look at the problems head-on. The biggest concern is that there is an explosive growth in population, a rise in radicalism and the Black Sea is what separates that northern conflict region of Africa and the Mediterranean coast of Europe.

The Mediterranean Sea is known to be one of the most crucial routes to transport illegal cargo such as drugs, hydrocarbon and human trafficking into Europe, specifically through Spain and Italy. It’s crucial for Europe to have a discussion and plan for this region as it is a necessity to keep Europe safe. The different countries along the Mediterranean must come together to create a cohesive, inclusive yet firm diplomatic strategy to answer all the challenges. The region along the Mediterranean Sea is a strategic area for Europe as there are many ships that come from around the world into those ports.

Senator Pascal proceeded by stating that the eastern Mediterranean region escalated after the discovery of significant oil and gas reserves. It is also the ongoing war in Syria, and the destabilization of the region with yet unsettled situation in Libya (with presence of multiple external players which generate instability).

Senator reminded the conference audience that Europe must also mention the actors in the Mediterranean on the European side;

‘’The European Union is a leading player, at least for the display of its normative ambitions, also for its diplomacy of the checkbook and its discourse on human rights. However, the EU is not a power in the state and sovereign sense of the term, and it systematically curbs the sovereign aspirations of its own member states. The EU does not yet project itself sufficiently as an international actor capable of implementing a foreign policy. The EU appears, I believe, seen from the Mediterranean at most as a soft power which, in word, watches over the balance of power in the region. And the hopes placed in EU policy dedicated to the Mediterranean have been in vain, to the extent that they do not seem effective, neither economically nor politically, at least from my point of view, insufficiently. And if on the northern shore a few countries are interested in the Mediterranean area, we can see that this is not the center of European concerns and that no common vision is really emerging.’’

Unification of that region is vital, because if the Mediterranean nations do not collaborate as a union and show their strength, control of that area could fall into the hands of Turkey, Russia and China. Turkey walks bold on the so-called Exclusive Economic Zone in Euro-Med, which would – if accepted – project its power in the Mediterranean, giving it a more prominent regional political role. Russia, which is once again becoming a key player in the Middle East, in the Black Sea area, in the Mediterranean and even in Africa walks bold too. Lastly, China which mainly projects itself through its trade, investments, and its bilateral agreements is pressing on maritime space too. Lately, Chinese military navy can be also seen.

The navies of the regions are preparing for a hardening of relations at sea in a strategic area where world trade flows, but also now, for the exploration, the exploitation of hydrocarbons. This is why questions of sovereignty are once again emerging, naturally in the sense of our concerns.

Hopefully the new US administration will also pay attention to the Mediterranean Sea and not just the Indo-Pacific. 

The only way to establish more of a grip in the Mediterranean theater is cooperation. This is also the key to success for all the European nations gathered around unified code of conduct and rule of law.

Concluding, Excellency Pascal stated that the European Union must recognize realities of unresolved conflicts that are interwoven, as well as to understand the new challenges that can threaten the very fabrics of the Union: security, demography, unregulated immigration. If not equal to these challenges, the universalist European model might lose its grounds beyond point of return – warned Senator.

*the above text is based on the informal French language transcript as per conference recordings, which may have no intentionally caused minor omittances or imprecisions in the reporting.


[1]This highly anticipated conference gathered over twenty high ranking speakers from three continents, and the viewers from Australia to Canada and from Chile to Far East. The day was filled by three panels focusing on the rethinking and revisiting Europe and its three equally important neighbourhoods: Euro-Med, Eastern and trans-Atlantic (or as the Romano Prodi’s EU Commission coined it back in 2000s – “from Morocco to Russia – everything but the institutions”); the socio-political and economic greening; as well as the legacy of WWII, Nuremberg Trials and Code, the European Human Rights Charter and their relevance in the 21st century.

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